MAFIA - The Suras Hunt [Game Thread]

[GoodGrief]

There's a finder reveal and an evil lynch and I miss it? Why can't you people post at decent hours?  :P

 

I think this lynch is a foregone conclusion. I've never seen a False Finder claim to have unearthed an evil before. I don't suppose the fact that Danya posted at 4AM my time makes the fact that I missed this lynch look any better? No? Okay. Then I leave it to Danya to decide if I look the shiftiest tonight.

[Barmacral]

[glow=red,2,300]Haxorsist[/glow] should be our rep. I believe Danya, and if she says Hax is not evil, thats good enough for me, and I feel much better knowing that an innocent is making our decision.

[SinisterDeath]

I think its only fair if Loki is the representative.  ;)

[jackdaw]

Yeah, I was thinking Hax, also.  Since Kivam did our first one.

[DPR]

 

Russian Roulette Vote Count:

 

[glow=red,2,300]Hax ( 1 )[/glow] - Barm

[cloudcrono]

Que chistoso.

 

Ok a couple of questions DPR or Barm.

 

First off is it possible that the representative can kill off other(s) then him/herself?

 

Secondly are all of the choices to kill SinisterDeath that you listed completely exhaustive of the possibilities in the room?

 

At this point, I am suspected anyway and if I can kill myself then I will save everyone from wasting a lynch on me to find out I'm innocent. 

 

Don't waste this opportunity on a confirmed innocent instead use it on someone that you are unsure of that way if I screw up you only lose an unknown. 

 

Vote [glow=red,2,300]CloudCrono[/glow] for representative

[cloudcrono]

If the rep can kill off others though then the logic of my previous post is completely wrong and don't vote for me.

[Barmacral]

At this time I know nothing about the action, and I highly doubt that Wes will tell you anything before the action takes place.

[Haxorsist]

*shrugs*

 

I guess I could do it. Kivam, you did alright the last time there was a russian roulette. Do you have a feeling about which option to choose?

[GoodGrief]

I say if there's a chance of death we risk one of our unknowns. [glow=red,2,300]Cloud[/glow] volunteered, so Cloud it is.

 

I'll be away for the rest of the day. Merry Friday to all and Happy New Weekend.

[Vemynal]

i support having a known innocent do it

 

[glow=red,2,300]hax[/glow] i have faith in u

[jackdaw]

I just realized I didn't glow Hax's name!  :P

 

[glow=red,2,300]Hax for representative[/glow]

[Vemynal]

Russian Roulette Vote Count:

 

Hax ( 3 ) - Barm, vem, jack

cloud ( 2 ) - cloud, goodgrief

 

btw cloud, i find it very suspicious that u volunteered when logically we want a confirmed innocent (or at least Hax has a stake in Sin's death) to make this choice AND many already suspect you, kivam at the lead of which.

 

i say someone view hax tonight, preferably daruya so we know the result without exposing a 2nd should he be innocent.

 

edit- also, how do we know this event is a bad thing?

 

" ONE WAY WILL LEAD TO SINISTERDEATH’S DEMISE WITH NO INCIDENT. THE OTHER WAY WILL LEAD TO A SERIES OF CHOICES TO BE MADE BY THE REPRESENTATIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEATH AS A POTENTIAL OUTCOME WITH ONE CHOICE. WITH 13 PLAYERS, IT TAKES 4 TO VOTE FOR A REPRESENTATIVE.*"

 

So one choice we kill Sin. Another leads to multiple choices being made. Its possible that someone will die from one choice.

 

So we kill Sin, confirming whether daruya is a finder or a murderer. If shes evil someone should view Hax tonight, she claimed he was role less so we shouldn't be worried about lynching a finder should a murderer claim he's evil.

 

Another leads to multiple choices being made. Nothing said here means that these will be harmful events, they could be helpful. The rullete seems to me to be a game of chance, not misfortune from what this sounds like.

 

It possible someone will die by one choice. Well, we know in one option Sin dies. So does that mean that in the possible choices made by Hax option that someone good will die? bad? random? Hax himself? Or will there be no deaths at all.

 

think in the choices there will be none based on the wording "DEATH AS A POTENTIAL OUTCOME WITH ONE CHOICE". or meaning Sin is the only option that there is a death in.

 

I think this is furthered by the complete obviousness of the safe action to kill Sin.

 

Kill him with something else? What could happen? the admiral runs in and demands we don't kill him? then forces us into some danger?

 

Or the option to roam around, in the afternoon, by ourselves, no protection, unbeknown st to the admiral who we know is evil. Possibly exposign information or even bonestone as the last did.

 

 

But I think you should wait for kivam Hax before yu come to a conclusion.

[cloudcrono]

Actually Vemmy it just depends on whether or not the person elected can only kill himself or others and whether or not the description of the choices coincide with the action of the chioces.

 

In the event that choices clearly lead to the results that are expected of them then it makes sense to send someone you trust otherwise if it is unclear what will happen from a given choice AND if the rep's actions only effect themselves then you should send an "unknown".

 

Now keeping that in mind the last time we had a roulette action we were given some basic information about the choices but in all reality it came down to probability.  Kivam chose one way because he had to not because of an intent.  To clarify if a choice from DPR said kill 4 random team members or kill yourself then you would have a safe assumption that your rep is a assassin if he/she decides to slaughter their team.  Unfortunately the choices aren't like that in these situations. 

 

I said in my post that you should pick me BECAUSE I'm an unknown and if I screw up then you lose an unknown but if Hax goes and screws up then you lose someone who is more then likely innocent.  Like I said this all depends on the type of choices presented to the rep.

 

I am innocent.

 

If you chose me I will do my best to ensure everyone's safety and if I die then no big whoop because you aren't sure about my alignment now anyway.

 

It all comes down to what you believe anyway so get to voting.

 

[Barmacral]

I'll [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] for now. I want more people's opinions on whether we should go Hax or Cloud.

[cloudcrono]

A RUSSIAN ROULETTE ACTION HAS BEEN ISSUED. AS A GROUP, YOU MUST NOW VOTE FOR A REPRESENTATIVE TO ACT ON BEHALF OF THE GROUP. THE REPRESENTATIVE WILL THEN CHOOSE BETWEEN LEAVING THE GROUP TO OBTAIN MORE ROPE, OR TO USE ANOTHER METHOD TO KILL SINISTER DEATH. ONE WAY WILL LEAD TO SINISTERDEATH’S DEMISE WITH NO INCIDENT. THE OTHER WAY WILL LEAD TO A SERIES OF CHOICES TO BE MADE BY THE REPRESENTATIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEATH AS A POTENTIAL OUTCOME WITH ONE CHOICE. WITH 13 PLAYERS, IT TAKES 4 TO VOTE FOR A REPRESENTATIVE.*

 

I don't think the choices are that obvious Vemmy.

 

Choosing to kill SinisterDeath with something else could lead to a series of choices along the lines of choosing which object to kill him with in the room.  Why is this bad? Maybe one of the choices could be harmful to us AFTER we lynch him.  Who knows?

 

It all comes down to choice I say vote for me and I will listen to what everyone thinks before I choose.  Hax appears innocent right now and if I kill SinisterDeath(which I am pretty sure that DPR is going to make sure happens anyway) then we will know Tayla's alignment.  If I don't do something to your liking AND survive then lynch me tonight and see I'm innocent.

 

[Vemynal]

Ok, lets assume for a sec that my above about the choices was wrong, and that its really a choice between killing sin and getting us into a situation where random people will die.

 

Now, the choices seem to be fairly obvious. Kill him with something else or go wondering off alone (where possibly many random people will die)

 

Now, since we can guess there was approx 1 murderer to every 4 or 3 players outta 18 thats 4 to 6 murderers total.

 

That means in 4 random deaths we either would likely have 1 murderer or be lucky to get 1 murderer. 25% odds or 16.6% odds of a murderer selected for each lynch. coming to about a half chance at the 1/6th odds to actually get a murderer.

 

Instead we scored 2 random murderer deaths. The murderer's are hurting right now, especially sine we got the mob boss.

 

If we kill Sin it will be either 1 or 3 murderer's left. And 10 people total.

 

The murderers need to make[glow=red,2,300] 4 kills[/glow] before they can [glow=red,2,300]win [/glow]at this point.

 

So if we got another 4 random deaths we can suspect that almost all if not all will be good guys oweing to the law of probabilities which demands things will eventually even out.

 

But we can't risk that this time. Even 2 random deaths could lose us the game if Daruya was lying and we kill sin as a civilian because they they night kill and it could be 6 left with 3 of them murderers.

 

Heck, if daruya is evil then technically it will be 4 murderers left (if 6 total) which means if we sink to 8 people we lose. since there are 11 including sin, if he's innocent and they night kill we are at 9 people. Then we kill daruya and they night kill its 3 murderers and 7 players and we are stuck with 1 chance to lynch a murderer or we lose.

 

ALL of this can be avoided if we don't get those random kills.

 

Which is why we need a confirmed innocent and it worth the risk.

 

Its why we need hax

[Admiral]

Perhaps we should send someone who cannot be killed at all, who knows her way around the area and can afford to take some risks. Like me.

[Barmacral]

No.

 

As appealing as the idea does sound, I do not know much about your character, but from what little I do know, I don't trust you. You serve your own ends, and I do not feel that sending you is wise. Sending you may result in more innocents dead than if we send somebody who actually has good intentions.

[cloudcrono]

I agree with Barm we don't know you yet Admiral.

[Vemynal]

It all comes down to choice I say vote for me and I will listen to what everyone thinks before I choose.  Hax appears innocent right now and if I kill SinisterDeath(which I am pretty sure that DPR is going to make sure happens anyway) then we will know Daruya's alignment.  If I don't do something to your liking AND survive then lynch me tomorrow and see I'm innocent.

 

I bolded 2 errors to what I think you meant. And as I already covered above its way to risky to place intot the hands of someone we don't know.

 

Hax's possible motivations:

1)`If he's a murderer and Daruya's a murderer then he will die once we know she's evil and someone inspects him tonight. Meaning he will choose the messy way of random kills. Or so seems obvious. As I said above (random kill lets say we get only 2 and both are innocent deaths) with 9 people and 4 murderer's left we need to make a murderer lynch every kill for the rest of the game. But once its down too 5 total and 2 murderers left (2 days later, we lynch Hax and Daruya. 2 night kills take place) that means we will know who the remaining 2 murderers are because we will have run out of unknowns! the messay path would lead to our win! So he will now avoid this route.

2) If he's innocent and daruya is lying he will still pick the less messy option.

3) If he's innocent and daruya is telling the truth he will pick the less messy option.

 

Nonetheless all of my above logic is screwed up if we present a 3rd player variable into this equation Cloud, and that could lose us the game since we then wouldn't have a stance on you if you got things messy and lynching you later might hurt not harm.

 

I say we stick with Hax

 

@ the admiral: "her" hmm? Since Raena is on vacation she posted in Aiel forums I'm goign to say "Hi Alys" ^^

 

And no, sending you is a VERY bad idea imo

 

edit- I'm off too history class. I'll be back in 3 hours approx

[Kivam]

I say if there's a chance of death we risk one of our unknowns. [glow=red,2,300]Cloud[/glow] volunteered, so Cloud it is.

 

I'll be away for the rest of the day. Merry Friday to all and Happy New Weekend.

 

That's my feeling as well.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Cloud[/glow]

[Guest Far Dareis Mai]

Vemy, in case you missed it: Danya viewed Hax and he came out innocent. Since we've been discussing Sin being evil all the live long day, and he has yet to refute it, I'm going to go out on a limb and say she is truthful in her claim, and Sin is the assassin. That would also make Hax a confirmed innocent. And this is very meta-gamish, but I'm thinking we have closer to 25% evil in this group, which would put us at 4-5 evils...very similar to the last mafia game.

 

The only problem with sending an unknown, is that they could really screw things up for us. They could purposely choose the wrong path, in the hopes that it will take out more than one person.

 

Barm--do you know that if this roulette action is not successful (successful = the chosen rep makes the right choice and SD goes down), will this cancel out our lynch, or will SD still get lynched, no matter what choice the rep makes..

 

If there is a chance that the wrong choice could end up with SD going free another night--that is not a good thing. I feel like I'm talking in circles here.... :P

 

Ultimately--if SD is going to go down no matter what, if we are going to get our lynch and we are just risking an extra death, I'll go for cloud. If we risk losing our lynch (that we are nearly 100% sure is an assassin) with a poor choice, then I feel like we should choose an innocent, because we can trust that they are really trying to steer us in the right direction.

 

And a big fat (but polite) No the Admiral representing us.

[Guest Far Dareis Mai]

Gah! My husband is giving me the 'look'. I'll be back tomorrow morning.  :-[ 'night, all.

[Kivam]

BTW, Cloud . . . last time the road less traveled was the answer.  This time, the road less traveled would be splitting up.  But we were explicitly warned against splitting up.  And I doubt Wes will simply make the answer to our roulette actions the road less traveled each time.  Stay here, pick something.

 

In fact - ask Barm or the Minister if we can take Sin to the [glow=red,2,300]Myshir Trept[/glow] pit as a group.  (Check the Book of Suras for more details)