FIDDLES-ON-SEA -------- The Pirates Game

[Zylazlo-]

Yea, I laughed alot during that post too :P

[Alys Kinch]

are you really for real back or do i need to avoid hitting or pinching myself??

[Zylazlo-]

I'd enjoy to see you hit yourself on a wall if that's any consolation :P

 

But I'm back I guess, but I already told ya that!

[SBoydW]

You may want to do a few of those just to be sure.... :P

[Alys Kinch]

:lol: :lol:

[Talya]

ZYLAZLO- (2): Kivam, Winter Mist

 

KISON (1): Alys

 

LOKI (2): Barmy, Toy

 

ALYS (1): Kison

 

BARMACRAL (1) - SBoydW

 

KIVAM (1) - Zy

 

 

7 votes to lynch. For this round I will not be putting a time limit on...unless it goes on for too long :D

[Kivam]

i see kivam here checking' date=' checking, checking... what are his thoughts??[/quote']

 

I'll let you know after a few more things develop, I promise

 

FYI - Loki actually has 3 votes - Sirayn switched to him right after Winter Mist put her vote on Zy

[GoodGrief]

Since we appear to be trying to get as many different canditates as possible, I'll throw in a vote for SboydW. Have a brownie.

[Talya]

ZYLAZLO- (2): Kivam, Winter Mist

 

KISON (1): Alys

 

LOKI (3): Barmy, Toy, Sira

 

ALYS (1): Kison

 

BARMACRAL (1) - SBoydW

 

KIVAM (1) - Zy

 

SBOYDW (1) - GoodGrief

 

7 Votes to Lynch

[the dude]

out of this many candidates, i think the probability of one of them being a pirate is pretty high (sirayn could tell us statistically what the exact chances are, but i don't roll that way 8) ). i'm gonna straddle the fence a bit more for now.

[Kivam]

OK, nothing's developing on its own, so I may as well post this now. First, a recap:

 

1) Kivam – Zy

2) Alys – Barm

3) Barm – Boyd

4) Dude – shows up, no vote

5) Kison – Alys (joke about aargh)

6) Alys – Kison (aarghing)

7) Sirayn – Zy (no reason, no shows, starts train?)

8) GG – shows up, no vote

9) Zy – shows up, no vote

10) Toy & Minion – shows up briefly, no vote

11) Barm – changes to Loki

12) Winter Mist – Zy (to get things moving – serious bandwagoning)

13) Sirayn – Votes Loki (Hasn’t shown up, derails possible lynch train on Zy)

14) Dude – have a hunch, keeping quiet, still no vote

15) Zy – hey, I’m innocent, why me, still no vote

16) Boyd – Barm (“what the hell”)

17) Toy and Minion – Loki (Serious bandwagoning)

18) Zy – Kivam

19) GG – Boyd (trying to get as many candidates as possible)

20) Dude - still sitting on the fence

 

Missing in action: Loki

 

Analysis:

 

First, I think we can dismiss Loki as a suspect for the moment. I've watched several of these games and I have NEVER seen the "lets lynch a guy to get him to show up" trick nail an evil player where the player did not show up. If Loki were evil, he would have popped in, if only to say "hi, I'm here and voting for dude (#8 on the list)." Especially given the fact that Loki always votes #8, he has no reason not to show up (he could show up and vote #8 again, which would tell us equally little about his status). Of course, he could be sitting there going "That's exactly what I thought he would think that I was thinking" - but it's a little early for that kind of skullduggery, isn't it? I would consider Loki presumptively innocent at this point.

 

And I would suggest the following:

 

We vote Zy.

 

Why?

 

For one thing, like I said, he likes to lie low when he's evil. And when I called him on that, what did he do - just showed up and didn't vote. He only voted for me way later (and I happen to know I'm innocent).

 

For another, Sirayn has made me suspicious of her for her actions with Zy. She was the second onto Zy (good cover if they are two evils for her to get in early) but as soon as Zy picked up a third vote (uh-oh, looks like he could actually be the victim of a lynch train) she switched to Loki, running the "lets make him show" game. And that is the lynch train du jour (3 votes, typical easy first round lynch of an inactive innocent). So lets just say that if Zy is evil, it's very likely Sirayn is as well.

 

On the other hand, if Zy is innocent, Winter Mist starts looking very suspicious for being the third person onto his lynch train.

 

So, lynching Zy only makes sense. If he turns up evil, then the finger points at Sirayn. I know we could lynch Sirayn and have the finger point at Zy if she comes up evil but (sorry Zy) if they are both innocent, I'd rather have Sirayn in and Zy out than the other way around.

 

If, on the other hand, Zy comes up innocent, Winter Mist becomes our next target. Either way, we learn a little something

 

And lets just remember that even if Zy comes up innocent, that doesn't prove anything about Sirayn one way or the other (Sirayn as an evil is a scary thought since she can manipulate the game with her analyses, so lets not make too many unwarranted assumptions about her, ok?).

 

Finally, I realize that by calling a halt to the Loki lynch train I've set myself up for a night kill early (unless a healer wants to protect me? Pretty please??) and worse, if you ignore my advice and it turns out he's guilty, I become guilty by association and the next day's lynch. But I'm confident that he's innocent, so it's worth the risk.

 

Anyhow, Alys - that's what I was thinking. Remember, this is my first game, so I may be totally out of my mind. But I think lynching Zy is the only sensible thing to do

[the dude]

for a first timer, you've got the analysis down pretty pat, kivam.

 

it is odd that sirayn isn't around more, but then again, there's relatively little to analyse right now (though what there was, you seem to have found ), so maybe she'd just waiting for developments.

 

so far, letting my "intuition" (read: whims) run for a bit, i don't think zylazlo is a pirate. when applying my "system" (read: stare at the player list until one name pops out), i came up with a contraversial name. i say contraversial because i'm not sure i want to start that kind of dust-up this early in the game...

[Kivam]

out of this many candidates' date=' i think the probability of one of them being a pirate is pretty high (sirayn could tell us statistically what the exact chances are, but i don't roll that way 8) ). i'm gonna straddle the fence a bit more for now.[/quote']

 

:D

 

Yep, pretty damn high, actually.

 

Statistically, if there are 9 innocents out of 12 players, any one suspect has a 75% chance of being innocent. The odds of two suspects both being innocent is 75%*75% = 56% (still more likely than not). For seven suspects, the odds that all are innocent would be 75%*75%*75%*75%*75%*75%*75%=13%

 

So there's an 87% chance at least one of us with votes on them is a pirate

[the dude]

who needs sirayn anymore anyway when we've got kivam? 8)

 

i'm kidding sirayn, we're desolate without you. :D

[Kivam]

:lol:

 

Oh, one more thing - if Zy and Sirayn are both evil, it would be likely that one of the other 2 currently on the Loki lynch train (Barm & Toy) are the third pirate. I'd lean towards Barm (for switching his vote to Loki and giving Sirayn a place to go) rather than Toy (who bandwagoned in his first game). I wanted to let the Loki train develop a little more, since with only 3 votes its possible that neither of the other two are guilty, just in the wrong place at the wrong time - but I have a deposition all day tomorrow so I figured I'd try to get things moving today.

[the dude]

i'm gonna take a blast for this one, i'm sure, but anyway, i guess you're right that it's time to throw down.

 

SITUATION A: RELEASING CONTROL ART RESTRICTION SYSTEM TO LEVEL 1. THE CROMWELL APPROVAL IS NOW IN EFFECT.

 

i think sirayn is a pirate.

 

(which would suck because she's a good player :P )

[Kivam]

i'm gonna take a blast for this one' date=' i'm sure, but anyway, i guess you're right that it's time to throw down.

 

SITUATION A: RELEASING CONTROL ART RESTRICTION SYSTEM TO LEVEL 1. THE CROMWELL APPROVAL IS NOW IN EFFECT.

 

i think [b']sirayn[/b] is a pirate.

 

(which would suck because she's a good player :P )

 

I knew that was who you meant. And I'm semi getting that vibe too (as you can see from the analysis). But it's a lot to risk on day 1 (if she's innocent, we cost ourselves bigtime).

 

It's better to simply have the finder, whoever it is, investigate Sirayn night one. If Sirayn is guilty, the finder should reveal (since a dead Sirayn as Pirate is worth the risk, especially since the healer can then protect the finder); if, on the other hand, the finder doesn't reveal, we can assume Sirayn is innocent, and the healer can protect Sirayn

(the only snag would be if they randomly nightkill the finder or healer on night 1).

 

So, I can understand why you (and others) might want to vote your hunch today - but I think its too early.

 

Stick with Zy.

[the dude]

sound reasoning. i'll concur. for the record though, i can't claim any concrete reason for the hunch whatsoever. in fairness i think i should specify that.

 

so finder, if you've got no better ideas, can we check out sirayn tonight? if you've got a higher priority, by all means, go with it, but it would be totally coo' if you could.

 

nothing personal, sirayn; you know how i operate. :D

 

unvote.

 

but i don't think zyl is a pirate. i think we should go with someone else, but that's just me.

[Sirayn]

Analysis on day one? :? In a coroner finder game I prefer to wait for an evil result before I analyse because you can draw definite connections instead of wasting your time speculating on how X would be suspicious if Y belonged to Z faction. I'm uncertain about the value of analysis this early, which is why I never do it, but I guess we can refer back to it later.

 

I'll lynch Zylazlo if necessary, but I'd rather not pursue the lynch of a talking player at the moment, as I'm worried about modkills. The game started on Monday afternoon my time and it's now Wednesday evening. That's definite modkill territory for loki. In a game with only 12 players the effect of people being modkilled as well as lynched can be devastating -- I well remember having to modkill 2-3 innocents in one game I modded, which turned out to be a major factor in the evil team's victory. In a coroner finder game, any lynch is better than no lynch, but I'm thinking it would be more prudent to minimise the number of potential innocent deaths.

 

I'm not sure what comment to make on the idea that I placed the second vote of the day on my own partner, knowing that early votes often lead to a lynch, when I had 8-9 other people to vote for. I usually prefer not to lynch my own team. Perhaps I forgot who I was partnered with? :? People come up with conspiracy theories about partners lynching partners a lot, but the fact is, it just shouldn't be done. You can argue that it saves you from the analysing analyst who analyses later in the game -- although I'm not sure who exactly other than me and apparently Kivam fits that mould -- but the potential payoff doesn't measure up to the definite and far from potential drawback. The evil team wins the game by keeping their partners alive. It's that simple.

[Sirayn]

Here's what I mean about the modkills. I'm not sure how many evil players there are - either 2 or 3 - so I did a quick projection for each scenario.

 

2 Evil Players

 

No modkills.

DAY ONE - 2 evil, 10 innocent

DAY TWO - 2 evil, 8 innocent

DAY THREE - 2 evil, 6 innocent

DAY FOUR - 2 evil, 4 innocent

DAY FIVE - 2 evil, 2 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY SIX - 2 evil, 0 innocent - LOSE

 

One innocent modkill.

DAY ONE - 2 evil, 10 innocent

DAY TWO - 2 evil, 7 innocent

DAY THREE - 2 evil, 5 innocent

DAY FOUR - 2 evil, 3 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FIVE - 2 evil, 1 innocent - LOSE

 

3 Evil Players

 

No modkills.

DAY ONE - 3 evil, 9 innocent

DAY TWO - 3 evil, 7 innocent

DAY THREE - 3 evil, 5 innocent

DAY FOUR - 3 evil, 3 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FIVE - 3 evil, 1 innocent - LOSE

 

One innocent modkill.

DAY ONE - 3 evil, 9 innocent

DAY TWO - 3 evil, 6 innocent

DAY THREE - 3 evil, 4 innocent - ENDGAME

DAY FOUR - 3 evil, 2 innocent - LOSE

 

We lose a day by letting one innocent get modkilled while we lynch another. Just one. The prospect doesn't exactly enthuse me. :?

 

edit: I would invoke the even-odd rule if I remembered how it went. :P

[Winter Mist]

I'm going to stick with Zy, Kivam, even though you earlier contemplated that if he is innocent I'd be a likely target next ;) Seeing as how any attempt I made to "get things moving" fell by the wayside when Sirayn changed her vote, however ... Kivam, if I was going for a serious bandwagon I would have changed my vote when I looked at the game this morning. And your logic makes sense too.

 

My vote stays with Zylazlo.

[Alys Kinch]

another reason loki isn't evil is that he is inactive when he likes that sort of thing. he wouldn't have gotten a reminder to play as a commoner- just read talya's first post. all of which means that someone needs to pm him to remind him to get in here and not be inactive.

 

and something says it isn't zy, but i don't know yet.

[the dude]

should we have the moddess pm him, since out-of-game communication is forbidden?

[Alys Kinch]

i was hoping to nudge her that way with the previous post, but you know. :P if no one else minds, someone can just pm him with a simple don't forget you are playing message.

[the dude]

i'll do it. let all potential repercussions be upon my head alone.