#WoTWednesday

[Elder_Haman]

6 hours ago, Carebear Sedai said:

Edit - I just realized that Carnival Row finished filming before WoT and will likely be released earlier. From what I can tell they haven't had a trailer or teaser release yet, which crushes my hopes of seeing anything official for WoT until after that show has finished promotion and possibly even aired. I believe that's what they did with The Expanse, only released the season five trailer after The Boys season two had finished airing. It may be an Amazon model. 

 

If I'm Amazon, I'm preparing for my "Next Year on Amazon" blitz for the end of the year. So I release footage for all of my new shows. Maybe not WoT yet - but it makes a good place for a teaser - or at least an official logo/release date/teaser.  

 

I'm also going to be sure to drop my trailer for WoT sometime before Carnival Row releases so that I can promote WoT to Carnival Row viewers.  I want those same eyeballs - if WoT is going to succeed, it definitely needs to capture the majority of Amazon's existing sci fi/fantasy consumers. 

 

Season 5 of The Expanse began 12/16 and has 10 episodes. On a weekly release schedule, it the season finale will "air" on 2/17.  If Carnival Row gets released after The Expanse concludes and runs for 8 episodes, it would end on or around 4/17. Perfect for a Spring release... 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Elder_Haman

[Thrasymachus]

Fwiw, that little animation and sound bit with the ancient symbol of the Aes Sedai rendered as drops of liquid coming together counts as a teaser.  So too does that shot of the Winespring Inn with the Thom Merrilin voiceover.  They just haven't aired anywhere but Twitter yet.

 

I still think it's a likely that they still have some shots to pick up in the Czech Republic in April, in which case a Spring release is pretty much out of the question.  And I hope they don't opt for a Summer release, even if they could make it.  Summer is when you release stuff you don't expect to do that well, and if it picks up an audience you move it to Fall, Winter or early Spring.  I do think they'll want to try to cross-promote WoT with Carnival Row, but that probably won't start until the last episode of Carnival Row releases and it's viewers are beginning to ask themselves what to watch next.  Hype can be a double-edged sword, build it up too much and you risk disappointment.  I reckon all the streaming platforms are catching on that word-of-mouth is better marketing than any number of trailers and promos, so I expect that the mainstream marketing push will be rather sparse, and for the time being, they'll just want to make sure they don't lose any eyeballs that are already anticipating the show.

[Elder_Haman]

17 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Fwiw, that little animation and sound bit with the ancient symbol of the Aes Sedai rendered as drops of liquid coming together counts as a teaser.  So too does that shot of the Winespring Inn with the Thom Merrilin voiceover.  They just haven't aired anywhere but Twitter yet.

 

I still think it's a likely that they still have some shots to pick up in the Czech Republic in April, in which case a Spring release is pretty much out of the question.  And I hope they don't opt for a Summer release, even if they could make it.  Summer is when you release stuff you don't expect to do that well, and if it picks up an audience you move it to Fall, Winter or early Spring.  I do think they'll want to try to cross-promote WoT with Carnival Row, but that probably won't start until the last episode of Carnival Row releases and it's viewers are beginning to ask themselves what to watch next.  Hype can be a double-edged sword, build it up too much and you risk disappointment.  I reckon all the streaming platforms are catching on that word-of-mouth is better marketing than any number of trailers and promos, so I expect that the mainstream marketing push will be rather sparse, and for the time being, they'll just want to make sure they don't lose any eyeballs that are already anticipating the show.

I guess what it boils down to is they're fixin' to give us a release date. I think that will come with some sort of visual content that gives us a first look at an element of the actual show. This would be something like an animated official logo over theme music or some use of "there are no beginnings or endings...", etc.

 

I think it possible, but less likely that we will get clips of the show in what could be called a "teaser trailer".

 

I think it least likely that it will be an actual theatrical-style "trailer".

 

And I'm still calling April/May 2021 for Episode One to hit screens.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Elder_Haman

[Carebear Sedai]

16 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

Summer is when you release stuff you don't expect to do that well, and if it picks up an audience you move it to Fall, Winter or early Spring. 

 

That's just not true for cable or streaming shows. Game of Thrones, Stranger Things (season 1 and 3) and The Boys (season 1) are a few example of huge hits that premiered in mid-July. It's only network shows that release their lesser valued content in the summer, mostly because their main shows have 20 something episodes and require 9 months to air. 

 

22 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

Season 5 of The Expanse began 12/16 and has 10 episodes. On a weekly release schedule, it the season finale will "air" on 2/17.  If Carnival Row gets released after The Expanse concludes and runs for 8 episodes, it would end on or around 4/17. Perfect for a Spring release... 

 

I think it's more likely Carnival Row will get a trailer release 2/17 and air a month or two later. Then after Carnival Row airs, WoT will get a trailer and a month or two of promotion before its release sometime this summer, July most likely. But that's assuming they're mostly done filming season 1. 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Carebear Sedai

[Thrasymachus]

GoT released in April, most seasons.  It only released in July for season 7, since they had to wait for winter to film, so they pushed that season back.  Season 3 they actually released in March.

 

Stranger Things was a sleeper hit, its popularity was a bit of a surprise to its producers and Netflix, and Season 2 was released in October.  Season 3 was released to coincide with the season of the setting; they were celebrating Independence Day in the show, so it made sense to release it on July 4th.  To be fair, so was Season 2, when they were celebrating Halloween.  Nobody knows when Season 4 will release, they're in rather the same boat as WoT what with the Covid delays.

 

The Boys was also a sleeper hit, and their Season 2 release was also moved to the Fall.  And the story of The Boys season 2 doesn't implicate any time-of-year to play into its release.

 

Streaming shows are arguably less susceptible to the reasoning for why big shows are not typically released in Summer, but probably not wholly unsusceptible to it.  A bingeable show can work for those rare rainy summer weekends, but for the most part, more people choose to be away from their TV sets during summer, whether they get their content from an antenna, a cable or an internet connection, so most new show releases are usually intended either for a niche audience, or not expected to do better than holding their own.

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by Thrasymachus

[Carebear Sedai]

This is a different summer than most summers in any case, with far more people expected to stay inside. I think it's likely WoT will end up getting a summer date because Amazon won't want to release all their big titles at once. The Boys, The Expanse, and the LotR show are all anticipated to get release dates in the autumn/winter period, with the latter likely ending up in early 2022 following the tail of Tolkien nostalgia with the 20th anniversary of The Fellowship in December. 

 

There are also other competitors to consider. Witcher confirmed they're returning for August 17, 2021 and I would think WoT would want to release ahead of then. IMO it would be a mistake to let Witcher dominate the fantasy genre for another season before WoT even gets a foot in the door. 

[Elder_Haman]

1 hour ago, Carebear Sedai said:

There are also other competitors to consider. Witcher confirmed they're returning for August 17, 2021 and I would think WoT would want to release ahead of then. IMO it would be a mistake to let Witcher dominate the fantasy genre for another season before WoT even gets a foot in the door. 

I think this is exactly right. May want to bookend the Witcher with WoT on one side and LotR on the other. 
 

I’d be shocked if it isn’t on screens by July 

[johnnysd]

5 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

I think this is exactly right. May want to bookend the Witcher with WoT on one side and LotR on the other. 
 

I’d be shocked if it isn’t on screens by July 

 

Boy, a release date is tricky. One one hand they could have the first four or five shows completed by this point in their entirety. On the other hand even though they are trying to do as much as they can with sets and physical effects, Episode 7 is likely to be extremely digital FX heavy. They finished likely around early November and I could see post production on that episode easily taking 8-10 months or more. July seems aggressive to me, if I was going to pick a date I would say late September or October.  I do think we see a short trailer before Christmas mostly with stuff from the first episode or two.

[Thrasymachus]

I think it's most likely that they have 85-90% of filming done for all 8 episodes. They had about a month of filming left on the schedule last fall when Covid shut them down again, but from all the reports, they knew it was coming so they hustled up and filmed as much as they could before they got the order to shut down again.  But there's also reports that they still have some pickup shots left, and that there was some shooting they wanted to leave until Spring anyway, so that the background has the appropriate season of the year on display.  And they are scheduled to resume filming in the Czech Republic in April.  Elder Haman, in support of his proposal that the season might release this Spring, suggests that it might be filming for Season 2, but there's literally no evidence for that.  The only evidence we have that there even will be a Season 2 so far is Rafe's reporting that he's been working on the scripts for it.  I don't think Amazon or the WoT production team would hide an early season 2 renewal from us, at least, not for very long.

 

I'm unaware of any post-production process that's gonna take 6-8 months after principle photography, even cgi doesn't take that long anymore, and a lot of cg work can happen even before filming and carries over from work done on earlier episodes.  But it will be at least a month, and more likely a whole quarter.  If they do have more filming to do in April for season one, then late summer is likely the earliest it possibly could be released.  If, as Elder Haman hopes, filming is already all done for season one, a Spring release is conceivable.  I don't believe all the filming for Season 1 is done yet, though, as that implies that everybody reporting on WoT production, the Covid shutdown in the Czech Republic, and the scheduling of April filming is lying to us, by omission at the very least.

 

I'm also not holding out hope for any more teasers or content reveals this year from @WoTonPrime.  Madeline or Rafe might post some pictures, or answer a question or two, but not anything relevant to this discussion here.  I hope, but do not expect, that they might narrow down their release timeline on January 6th.  But it'll most likely be another teaser like Rand's sword or the Winespring Inn or that audio clip with the special effects.

 

I also agree that this coming summer will look different than other summers, but I disagree about the way it will look different.  Vaccine penetration in the US should be reaching 40-50% by then, and many municipalities and states are already anticipating that they'll be able to lift their mask and social distancing orders around that time.  More than ever in our lifetimes, people will be wanting to get out and get together, going to ball games and plays and concerts and out to eat at restaurants and to the movie theaters and basically anywhere but at home in front of their TVs.  Anything that does release this summer will languish.  Better to wait, even until December if possible, when weather and school schedules will drive people back inside and limit their entertainment options.

[Elder_Haman]

3 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I don't believe all the filming for Season 1 is done yet, though, as that implies that everybody reporting on WoT production, the Covid shutdown in the Czech Republic, and the scheduling of April filming is lying to us, by omission at the very least.

Here’s the thing though: the only reporting saying that filming stopped in November due to COVID is a single, anonymously sourced article. Why does everyone accept it for gospel truth? Everyone else and almost all the other circumstantial evidence points to filming ending on schedule. 
 

4 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I also agree that this coming summer will look different than other summers, but I disagree about the way it will look different.  Vaccine penetration in the US should be reaching 40-50% by then, and many municipalities and states are already anticipating that they'll be able to lift their mask and social distancing orders around that time.  More than ever in our lifetimes, people will be wanting to get out and get together, going to ball games and plays and concerts and out to eat at restaurants and to the movie theaters and basically anywhere but at home in front of their TVs.  Anything that does release this summer will languish.  Better to wait, even until December if possible, when weather and school schedules will drive people back inside and limit their entertainment options.

I agree with this 100%. 

[Thrasymachus]

I don't think it was a single anonymous source that the filming this last fall was scheduled to go to the first week of December.  It's not a single anonymous source that says the Czech Republic shut down again in late October.  And I don't think it's a single source that says WoT is scheduled to resume shooting in the Czech Republic in April.  Usually, when reporting gets stuff wrong like that, there's pushback or corrections released by the studio or some other source affiliated with the production.  Nobody's come on the record, anonymous or not, to say WoT isn't shooting in April.  And nobody on the production team has suggested that all their filming for Season one is in the can and they're just working on post-production.  If the reporting that there's still a bit more filming to do this Spring is wrong, I have to wonder what the incentive could be for the studio to let that error stand, and allow the perception that the first season couldn't possibly be released this Spring to take root.  If they were planning to release this Spring, then pushback on the claim that more filming still needs to be done in April would have been immediate; it helps those fan sites doing the reporting to maintain their credibility, and it maintains and reinforces awareness among the fans that the series release is close enough that they need to keep paying attention.  They wouldn't want those fan sites to damage their own credibility by releasing something false and then letting that falsehood stand for weeks; those sites are ultimately allies for growing early viewership and generating marketing hype.  They'll have a harder time doing that if people stop reading them because they no longer believe their reporting.

[Elder_Haman]

25 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

I don't think it was a single anonymous source that the filming this last fall was scheduled to go to the first week of December.  

That is correct. Multiple sources reported filming on WoT was expected to continue into December. We also know that filming did continue in December. It continued in Spain.

 

27 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

It's not a single anonymous source that says the Czech Republic shut down again in late October.  And I don't think it's a single source that says WoT is scheduled to resume shooting in the Czech Republic in April.  

To be clear, I did not say that the claim was based on a single anonymous source. I said the claim was based on a single, anonymously sourced article. Read the article for yourself. It makes two claims: (1) production of WoT in the Czech Republic was halted; and (2) that the production is due to resume in April 2021. Both of those claims are based on unnamed sources. I stand by my claim.

 

32 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Usually, when reporting gets stuff wrong like that, there's pushback or corrections released by the studio or some other source affiliated with the production.  Nobody's come on the record, anonymous or not, to say WoT isn't shooting in April.  

Sorry, I don't buy this. Amazon is not going to bother to go on the record to correct a small, low-traffic site like WoTSeries.com. (Which is not to be read as an indictment, they do great work!) 

 

38 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Nobody's come on the record, anonymous or not, to say WoT isn't shooting in April.

Why would they?

 

41 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

 And nobody on the production team has suggested that all their filming for Season one is in the can and they're just working on post-production.  

I tend to disagree with this. No one has said it on the record. You do, however, have multiple sources that have said exactly this. (Both Daniel Greene and Narg claim insiders have told them this) There is also corresponding circumstantial evidence found on social media belonging to crew members.

 

46 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

If the reporting that there's still a bit more filming to do this Spring is wrong, I have to wonder what the incentive could be for the studio to let that error stand, and allow the perception that the first season couldn't possibly be released this Spring to take root.  

Firstly, because Amazon doesn't care a whit what "the perception" about the release is. Secondly, because it gives idiots like me something to bang out posts on my computer about (i.e. buzz about when the show might come out is good, even if that buzz consists of people arguing about when the show will come out). And thirdly, because I doubt anyone with a high enough pay grade has time to worry about what signals they are sending to people on fansites.

49 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

If they were planning to release this Spring, then pushback on the claim that more filming still needs to be done in April would have been immediate; 

Why?

50 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

it helps those fan sites doing the reporting to maintain their credibility, and it maintains and reinforces awareness among the fans that the series release is close enough that they need to keep paying attention.  

Amazon doesn't care about fan sites. The people who are on those sites are already paying attention. They are virtually guaranteed to watch the show.

52 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

They wouldn't want those fan sites to damage their own credibility by releasing something false and then letting that falsehood stand for weeks; those sites are ultimately allies for growing early viewership and generating marketing hype.  They'll have a harder time doing that if people stop reading them because they no longer believe their reporting.

Amazon. Doesn't. Care. About. Fansites. They will be allies regardless. And if one goes down, several more will take its place - especially after the series releases.

 

I do agree that reporting needs to be careful - especially on brand new fan operated sites. Which is why I take exception to this one particular article. It wasn't careful, it didn't get anyone on the record and omitted details that conflicted with its conclusions (many of which, to the author's credit, didn't surface until after publication). 

 

That being said, my predictions will be put to the test very soon. I have predicted that we will know the release date by the end of the year. We'll see if Amazon has a little early Christmas present for us this Wednesday...

[Thrasymachus]

Quote

Amazon. Doesn't. Care. About. Fansites. They will be allies regardless. And if one goes down, several more will take its place - especially after the series releases.

I think you're underestimating the value of fansites to the studio and the marketing team, but I do agree with this:

 

Quote

That being said, my predictions will be put to the test very soon. I have predicted that we will know the release date by the end of the year. We'll see if Amazon has a little early Christmas present for us this Wednesday...

 

With the only caveat being that if they drop something neat, but not revelatory, like the sword reveal or the Winespring Inn bit or the special effects with audio, that means nothing about when the show will release.  

[Elder_Haman]

17 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

With the only caveat being that if they drop something neat, but not revelatory, like the sword reveal or the Winespring Inn bit or the special effects with audio, that means nothing about when the show will release.  

Agreed. I'm anticipating an official release announcement. Maybe not a precise date, but at least as specific as "Spring 2021" or "Winter 2023"

[Thrasymachus]

I'm not anticipating that until after the New Year.  And it's more of a hope that it will be that early than an expectation.  My expectation is that we'll know that by June at the latest.

[Elder_Haman]

On 12/19/2020 at 10:21 PM, johnnysd said:

 if I was going to pick a date I would say late September or October.  

 

This article supports your timeframe (and would be in keeping with pickups and further shooting taking place in April). The author doesn't source the article though or establish where his timeframe comes from.

[Carebear Sedai]

I'm personally curious about how Carnival Row gets marketed. We know season two wrapped  in August, however, there hasn't been any official marketing for it since. No hint of an air date, no posters, no news even. Nothing. This makes me suspect Carnival Row will be marketed the way The Expanse and The Boys were. Which is to say, after The Expanse's season final in February, we'll get the trailer and surprise news that Carnival Row is airing in March. 

 

If that's indeed the case for CR, then I'll expect the same for WoT. We'll hear nothing except for these short prop trailers and the like, then a month before the air date we'll get the full force of the marketing campaign. 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Carebear Sedai

[Harldin]

I’m thinking Spring, so about 8-9 months away, they still haven’t announced that they have finished filming S1 unless they release a shortened S1 of 6 episodes and S2 is 10 episodes. 

[Harldin]

On 12/18/2020 at 6:47 PM, Carebear Sedai said:

I would only expect a meaningful teaser by the end of the year if the show is coming out this spring or early summer. For comparison, the new Netflix fantasy series Blood and Bone just released its teaser and its release is for April 2021. 

 

If the release ends up pushed much later into 2021, I do hope they'll still release a poster or something official by the end of winter. Amazon seems a bit lax with online promotion to me. The only shows I follow are The Expanse and Upload, and both have been through word of mouth. I don't even think The Expanse, as popular as it is, got very much promotion going into season 5. Maybe one trailer a month or so before its release date and that's about all I've come across through social media.

 

Edit - I just realized that Carnival Row finished filming before WoT and will likely be released earlier. From what I can tell they haven't had a trailer or teaser release yet, which crushes my hopes of seeing anything official for WoT until after that show has finished promotion and possibly even aired. I believe that's what they did with The Expanse, only released the season five trailer after The Boys season two had finished airing. It may be an Amazon model. 

Did you mean Shadow and Bone? Blood and Bone was a contemporary Movie from a few years back. 
looks and sounds like it could be a good series to

Edited December 22, 2020 by Harldin
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[johnnysd]

22 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

 

This article supports your timeframe (and would be in keeping with pickups and further shooting taking place in April). The author doesn't source the article though or establish where his timeframe comes from.

 

Not sure where he gets his info from I suspect it is just a logical guess. The interesting thing to me is why is Ruth Wilson pictured as part of the cast? As far as I know she has not been even mentioned as being in the show. So if that is true maybe he has actual sources.

[Elder_Haman]

4 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Not sure where he gets his info from I suspect it is just a logical guess. The interesting thing to me is why is Ruth Wilson pictured as part of the cast? As far as I know she has not been even mentioned as being in the show. So if that is true maybe he has actual sources.

Lol. I didn't even notice that when I read the article. Definitely suspect. I'm sure we would know about a Ruth Wilson casting.

[johnnysd]

30 minutes ago, Elder_Haman said:

Lol. I didn't even notice that when I read the article. Definitely suspect. I'm sure we would know about a Ruth Wilson casting.

 

Well there is this instagram post from Rafe

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9fFt4NJJkq/?utm_source=ig_embed

 

So there are 30 actresses in one scene (most likely the gentling of Logain) so there are a ton of cast Aes Sedai that we do not know about yet. One would assume that among them are Verin, and Elaida, Sheriam at a minimum, maybe Anaiya or even Cadsuane. Since he emphasizes how many awards they have it seems to be logical that some are know actresses maybe just doing cameos for parts that are bigger later.

 

Ruth Wilson would be a very good Elaida, so it is possible she is in it, especially as it seems that composite pic was created for the article so he intentionally put her in there. 

 

Still LOTS of unannounced castings.

[Elder_Haman]

7 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

 

Well there is this instagram post from Rafe

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/B9fFt4NJJkq/?utm_source=ig_embed

 

So there are 30 actresses in one scene (most likely the gentling of Logain) so there are a ton of cast Aes Sedai that we do not know about yet. One would assume that among them are Verin, and Elaida, Sheriam at a minimum, maybe Anaiya or even Cadsuane. Since he emphasizes how many awards they have it seems to be logical that some are know actresses maybe just doing cameos for parts that are bigger later.

 

Ruth Wilson would be a very good Elaida, so it is possible she is in it, especially as it seems that composite pic was created for the article so he intentionally put her in there. 

 

Still LOTS of unannounced castings.

Undoubtedly. Still, without the benefit of a link, an on-the-record source, or some idea about where the author is getting information, I'm going to take this article with a healthy degree of skepticism.

 

As for Ruth Wilson as Elaida - she'd be okay, I guess. She's never been my cup of tea. 

[johnnysd]

4 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

Undoubtedly. Still, without the benefit of a link, an on-the-record source, or some idea about where the author is getting information, I'm going to take this article with a healthy degree of skepticism.

 

As for Ruth Wilson as Elaida - she'd be okay, I guess. She's never been my cup of tea. 

 

Yeah it's interesting. None of the Two Rivers castings look anything like my book picture of them except for maybe Rand, yet when I see them all together it is easy to see who is who. Rosamund is very very close to my mental picture of Moiraine, but together it is easy to pick out who is who.

[Carebear Sedai]

On 12/22/2020 at 6:10 PM, Harldin said:

Did you mean Shadow and Bone? Blood and Bone was a contemporary Movie from a few years back. 
looks and sounds like it could be a good series to

 

Yes, thank you. I must've blanked out on the name. I'll be watching it as well. Though I'm not sure if I'll end up reading the books first or not.