#WoTWednesday

[Elder_Haman]

I know we are all anticipating the the official news from Amazon today. Personally, I'm expecting it to be a short teaser. Something akin to this first teaser for Game of Thrones.

 

What do y'all think?

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by Elder_Haman

[Borderlander]

Hey Elder,

 

I must be out of the loop... why are we expecting special news today??? 

[Elder_Haman]

6 minutes ago, Borderlander said:

Hey Elder,

 

I must be out of the loop... why are we expecting special news today??? 

 

Yesterday, @WoTonPrime - the official Twitter account dropped a teaser - "Wednesday approaches" with a dagger icon next to it. Prior to that, the account had participated in little drops of information on what they titled #WoTWednesday (the first Wednesday of each month).

 

Combine that with Sarah Nakamura's (she is a longtime community member and works on the show for anyone who isn't familiar with her) excitement over the last few days, and you have a recipe for much anticipation.

[Borderlander]

Hey Elder,

 

I do check the @WoTonPrime routinely... but somehow I missed that, even when I went to check right before asking you about it. ? Thanks for filling me in, though.

 

I guess I'm too late to 'guess' now... but I can be the first one to comment on the reveal. 

 

The sword looks great to me! I hope when all is said and done, they release tons of behind-the-scenes footage about production design and all that good stuff. I think one of my favorite 'fantasy' bits of pop culture over the last decade was all the bonus features on the LOTR extended edition dvds... There must have been 30+ hours of extra material. Looking back, I am almost more fond of the bonus material than the actual films. 

[Elder_Haman]

I agree. The sword looks fantastic! And I totally agree about the behind the scenes stuff. It's fascinating to watch.

[Borderlander]

I must say, the sword is exactly as I pictured it... which is probably because it so closely hews (?) to a lot of the fan art that is out there, and maybe some of the cover art on the books (although I can't remember for sure whether Tam's sword specifically was ever on a cover.) Point being, there is a sort of popular consciousness about what a basic Randland, heron-marked blade looks like. Still, all credit to the design team for nailing it.

 

But what it makes me wonder is, how will they do on design elements which are less uniformly depicted in the online artworld? There are so many different versions of trollocs out there, and Myrddraal, and gleeman's cloaks, and ogier, and even simpler things like the dragons on Rand's arms. There is no wrong answer, of course, but it will be fascinating to see what they ultimately go with... and then perhaps to go sifting through Google Images and see if it looks like they 'borrowed' inspiration from specific fan artists.

 

One of the best things ever, going back to the LOTR bonus material, was how Alan Lee and John Howe, who had been doing concept art for book covers and calendars and whatnot for years and years were tapped by Peter Jackson to join the production team and offer their design visions for the movies. Since so many of us have probably seen a lot of the same WOT-related fan-art online over the years, and I have to assume Rafe and his team have seen a lot of the same stuff as well, I wonder if we will be able to spot subtle bits and pieces here and there that were similarly co-opted.

[Ryan al'Thor]

The sword reveal was really cool to see (I want one). But I would love to see a trailer or more production material. 

[Thrasymachus]

I very much doubt we'll see any kind of trailer or teaser until they wrap filming on the first season, which I believe is set to continue in Spain this month for some stuff.  

 

I reckon most of the really wow promo stuff is gonna be held back to be closer to the release date.  Covid probably will keep them from a 2021 launch.  I can't see them being ready for Spring, nobody wants to drop an epic fantasy drama in Summer, which leaves Fall 2021 at the earliest.  So we probably shouldn't expect a trailer until maybe August or September of next year.  There may be a very short early promo as early as March of this year, something like atmospheric head-shots of Moiraine, Lan, Rand, Egwene, Mat, Nynaeve and Perrin, fading from one to the other, with some music and a voice-over doing the whole, "The Wheel of Time turns..." monologue over it, ending on a title screen.  But likely not much more until we're a couple of months out from release.

[Elder_Haman]

12 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I very much doubt we'll see any kind of trailer or teaser until they wrap filming on the first season, which I believe is set to continue in Spain this month for some stuff.  

 

From what I understand, that shoot in Spain was scheduled to take place on 12/1 and ``12/2. There's been a great deal of confusion about whether production is complete or not.

 

The only thing we know for certain is that they are scheduled to begin shooting in the Czech Republic again in April. We do not know whether that is to complete shooting for season 1 or to begin shooting for season 2.

12 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

Covid probably will keep them from a 2021 launch.  I can't see them being ready for Spring, nobody wants to drop an epic fantasy drama in Summer, which leaves Fall 2021 at the earliest.  So we probably shouldn't expect a trailer until maybe August or September of next year.  

 

I don't believe this. Consider: filming was complete on Episodes 1-6 before Covid shut production down. When production ramped up again, they followed their basic shooting schedule. I am unaware of any scheduled shoots that were canceled. (Though I believe there were some calls for extras that went out and were later scrapped).

 

It is certainly plausible that principal filming was complete for the last two episodes prior to the most recent shut down.

 

That leaves post-production, pickups, and potential re-shoots. It has been confirmed that post-production work continued during the COVID shutdown (which makes sense, since most post-production work is digital anyway). You never know about pickups and re-shoots. Sometimes they need a bunch, sometimes they don't. 

 

I think a spring release is entirely possible if not likely. This is why:

There is a report that Amazon has done a marketing release for the first 3 episodes. (They employ people who watch their new stuff before it is released - a sort of focus group) While this could be bunk, the timing is roughly correct for a spring release. 

 

It would also put the radio silence from Amazon following the shut down in context. If the screening goes well, you can move forward toward release. If it goes poorly, you can use the COVID shutdown as an excuse to delay release, then "fix" the problems when shooting starts up again in April.

 

Yesterday's release tells me that things went well. Amazon has chosen to add fuel to the hype in the community. In this time of streaming wars, Amazon has nothing currently set for release in early 2021. Do we really believe they are going to cede that much of the playing field to Hulu, Disney, Netflix, etc.? 

 

I could very easily see a short teaser (of the type I linked above) dropping around Christmas with the true trailer releasing during the Super Bowl. A premiere in March would have the show eligible for Emmys and it would allow the production team to do any necessary reshoots and pickups for the back end of season one at the same time they begin filming season two.

 

Then again, I'm just a foolish optimist. 

[Thrasymachus]

I think we have a different definition of the word, "plausible." I concede that your timeline is possible, but I reckon it undersells the disruption that covid caused and is still causing.  From what I understand, a Spring 2021 release was their original, un-disrupted timeline plan.  But not only was filming for the third block of the first season significantly delayed, as well as any re-shoots for post-production, I think it's extremely naive to think that post-production generally was able to proceed apace during lockdowns.  Some significant parts of it can be done remotely, but not all of it, and even much that can be done remotely is stuff that will have to wait for lockdowns to be lifted before it can be finalized.  While the lockdowns didn't shut down post-production work they way it did principle production work, it still constitutes a significant hindrance and delay to what it would otherwise have been.

 

I also think it's naive to think they're already scheduling filming for Season 2.  The last we heard about Season 2, Rafe was working on scripts for it.  There's been no news about casting, or set work, or props or costuming or table-reads or rehearsals or any of the other things that would need to be set up for a Season 2, prior to filming.  Further, of the relatively few recent shows that get green-lit for a second season before their first one airs, and keeping in mind that we don't know that that's the case for WoT, they still wait for the first season to air before they finalize the second season scripts and begin scheduling filming.  If only to get audience feedback about what works and what doesn't.  Screen tests can only tell you so much, after all.  And writing drafts of scripts for a second season that has not yet been ordered is pretty routine, particularly when showrunners plan to have multiple seasons in the first place.  If the rumors of filming in April are accurate, it's far more plausible that that filming is re-shooting those first-block episodes that didn't screen well than that they're already filming the second season.  Especially as some of the rumors coming out from purported screeners of those first episodes were not uniformly positive.

 

And I also sort of disagree that yesterday's release was a portent of how any of the production was going.  It was the reveal of a single prop, with some animated concept art attached.  And it wasn't without controversy, with people upset with the Asian vs European crossguard, to the lack of herons on the hilt.  Fans eager for any kind of news or tease hyped themselves up ahead of it, but what was actually revealed was hardly revelatory.  Rand's gonna have a heron-marked sword.  We already knew that.

 

But probably the biggest reason to think that a Spring 2021 release is unreasonably optimistic is that there has been no mainstream marketing done for the show yet.  With an epic fantasy drama like this, set to follow GoT's footsteps, you'd see commercials with teasers and short trailers on cable, broadcast and streaming platforms up to a year before release.  Every indication is that Amazon wants this show and/or their new LotR show to be their fantasy drama anchors, the shows that bring people to join their services and then gets them to use their other stuff.  They're not gonna release that kind of show without at least four months of mainstream marketing ahead of it.  Netflix, for example, dropped their first trailer for The Witcher on July 19th, five months ahead of their December 20th release.  On Prime, The Boys had their first poster drop on September 26 of 2018, nine months ahead of its release, and the first teaser-trailer on October 5th of 2018, only about a week later behind that poster.  We don't really have anything like that yet.  At least not anything intended for general marketing rather than directed at the already obsessed book fans.  The lack of a mainstream marketing effort strongly suggests that we are at least 6 months away from a release.  And since 6 months from now is the middle of Summer, and since nobody wants to release a new series like this in Summer, it's more likely at least 9 months.

 

I think the most reasonably optimistic thing to hope for is possibly a short teaser around Christmas time, but more likely during the Superbowl, that does no more than announce the upcoming release.  Which I expect to be no earlier than Fall 2021, but probably just as likely to be late Winter or early Spring of 2022.  I think a Spring 2021 release is highly unlikely, for the reasons above.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Thrasymachus

[Borderlander]

I think it will be ready in the spring. For a few reasons:

 

1) I have a strong hunch, and I've never been wrong before. 

 

2) I think it's safe to assume that, having finished shooting episodes 1-6 earlier, they must be very nearly finished with post-production on those 6 eps by now (excepting for any necessary pick-ups; see #3.) I think it is reasonable (though by no means conclusive) to speculate that they would have been able to finish filming episodes 7-8 in the 6-8 weeks they were back on location, plus this most recent 'battle' scene filmed in Spain. (Or am I wrong about how long they were back on location?) If that is true, then 3-5 months of post-production over the winter should be more than enough to finish all remaining work, since 6 eps should be so close to completion already.)

 

3) I'm no expert, but I think they could probably do a lot of the leftover pick-ups here in the States. Of course, if they need to do some long shots of mountain ranges or an aerial view of the Two Rivers or something epic and sweeping like that, I could be wrong... but if they just need some smaller stuff, like additional dialogue between characters, interior shots, close-ups, etc., there is no reason that cannot be done on traditional sets, stateside. Even with lots of lockdowns going on, I think there are enough states that would allow it or grant studios 'essential' status to finish this brief bit of filming. (From what I hear, there is still a lot of filming still being allowed for studios that are willing to foot the exorbitant bills of all the extra safety precautions.) Also, maybe they can swallow that bitter pill and do a few shots with digital backgrounds; I think this is not Rafe's preference, but if it means a 6+ month difference in the release schedule, maybe he would sign off on a few more CGI mountainscapes that most of us would never even realize were fake.

 

4) If they had not finished filming eps 7-8, or are unable to complete pickups at home or digitally, and were, as a result, totally unable to meet any release date earlier than next Fall, I think they would tell us. Because they love us. I find it more plausible that they were in fact able to finish, and are keeping a tight lid on any news because they are gearing up for some exciting reveals in the weeks/months to come.

 

[Borderlander]

Well, shoot... after reading Thrasymachus, I wonder if I am way off...

 

Although, if they did hit us with a trailer in December, they could still release in April or May and have a solid 4 months of marketing lead-up. And if Amazon plastered it all over their homepage, or even their Prime page, they could accomplish in 3-4 months what an HBO or a Netflix is able to do in twice that time, in terms of the sheer number of eyeballs it would get. And, if Witcher only got 5 months...

 

I also wonder if they could, in fact, start filming Season 2 straight off in April, as Thrasymachus seems to think does not quite add up... and it is a solid point... but they do not need to, nor do I think we should expect several months of trickling-in casting news and table-read type videos to keep the hardcore fans salivating. They could very well start shooting in April even before Season 1 hits the air—this may not be conventional, but aren't a lot of the conventional rules being rewritten during these still-early years of the 'streaming wars?' Not to mention having to be flexible around the new norms of Covid.

 

I would bet my lunch they already have an unofficial greenlight for season 2. Bezos has long been rumored to be a fan of the series (which, I admit, technically is no proof at all of anything), but Amazon better than anyone knows how well these books have sold over the years, and with the amount of money they are putting into it, there is no way—but I repeat, no way—they are not going full steam ahead with a second season, even if that means filming before season 1 airs . And with all the time off here over the Fall, I believe the writers and Rafe will have those season 2 scripts polished to a mirror-shine well before April not only as a matter of course for creative-types who typically plan for multiple seasons, but with the firm behind-the-scenes wink-wink knowledge that those scripts will be used sooner than later.

 

What I would feel more confident saying is that if we do not get a big teaser in December, indicating the beginning of a serious press-blitz, the odds of a spring-release will dramatically plummet, imho. 

 

[Elder_Haman]

20 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

 But not only was filming for the third block of the first season significantly delayed,

This is incorrect. Block 3 finished filming prior to the COVID lockdowns. Block 4 was delayed.

 

23 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

 I think it's extremely naive to think that post-production generally was able to proceed apace during lockdowns.  

"Extremely naive" seems a little harsh, especially since Rafe said that post-production on WoT is happening simultaneously with principal filming. Pre-lockdown, Judkins was "prepping 2 episodes, shooting 2 episodes, and in post on 4 episodes" while also writing for season 2.

 

35 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

  While the lockdowns didn't shut down post-production work they way it did principle production work, it still constitutes a significant hindrance and delay to what it would otherwise have been.

I'm gonna need a citation for this. No one knows (a) how much post production is left to do; (b) what type of work is necessary for said post production; or (c) how COVID lockdowns will impact said post production.

38 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

I also think it's naive to think they're already scheduling filming for Season 2.  The last we heard about Season 2, Rafe was working on scripts for it.  There's been no news about casting, or set work, or props or costuming or table-reads or rehearsals or any of the other things that would need to be set up for a Season 2, prior to filming. 

There's that word again. And yet, Rafe was working on scripts for season two in March. There would be no reason to release any information about season 2 castings or props or any of that prior to the show's debut. But that doesn't mean that it isn't happening.

 

42 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

Especially as some of the rumors coming out from purported screeners of those first episodes were not uniformly positive.

 Citation please. I've seen no such rumor. Indeed, I heard the exact opposite. (Not that I'm denying it - but I've not come across it.

 

44 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

And I also sort of disagree that yesterday's release was a portent of how any of the production was going.  It was the reveal of a single prop, with some animated concept art attached.  And it wasn't without controversy, with people upset with the Asian vs European crossguard, to the lack of herons on the hilt.  Fans eager for any kind of news or tease hyped themselves up ahead of it, but what was actually revealed was hardly revelatory.  Rand's gonna have a heron-marked sword.  We already knew that.

I think you missed the point. The point is that the fandom was extremely thirsty for any kind of news. Amazon could have taken the opportunity to state plainly that production had been substantially delayed. They didn't. Instead, they gave us a tease. They know this will fan the flames.

 

Now it wouldn't be unusual for a big company to dump on the fans of a fantasy series, but such a calculated move to tease the fandom if you are planning for release to be more than a year away seems tone deaf and foolish.

 

50 minutes ago, Thrasymachus said:

But probably the biggest reason to think that a Spring 2021 release is unreasonably optimistic is that there has been no mainstream marketing done for the show yet.  With an epic fantasy drama like this, set to follow GoT's footsteps, you'd see commercials with teasers and short trailers on cable, broadcast and streaming platforms up to a year before release. 

I don't know where you're getting that. Game of Thrones, for example, premiered on April 17, 2011. The first actual trailer for that show did not drop until March 10. (The teaser I linked to earlier came out in June of 2010). "Stranger Things" had almost no marketing campaign. There are many ways of getting eyeballs on screens and a 4-5 month window between now and spring is plenty of time. 

 

Yesterday's drop felt like the beginning of a marketing campaign geared toward the rabid fandom. It will generate word of mouth. WoT content across the web seems to be drawing more eyeballs (I haven't done a study, but the viewership numbers seem to be trending up). 

 

There will be other campaigns designed for larger audiences. Christmas is a great time to start those. The Super Bowl is the most widely viewed television program, making it the perfect venue for a real trailer. 

 

I stick by my "naive" optimism for those reasons.

[Elder_Haman]

43 minutes ago, Borderlander said:

What I would feel more confident saying is that if we do not get a big teaser in December, indicating the beginning of a serious press-blitz, the odds of a spring-release will dramatically plummet, imho. 

 

100%

[Borderlander]

I wonder also if the biggest deciding factor will be the 800 lb. Balrog in the room. Although all the eminently intelligent readers of this forum will innately understand that the WOT series is, conservatively, 7,000% more important to the Grand Scheme of Things than some half-baked, over-sexed LOTR/GOT hybrid wannabe series, something tells me the executives at Amazon probably don't see it that way. Which is to say, their first priority may well be to determine when the LOTR show should air, for maximum cultural impact, be it spring or fall or sometime else, and then they will simply slate WOT for the opposite side of the calendar, in order to maintain a year long stranglehold on our fantasy-loving brains for the next several years.

 

I have seen no news on when LOTR might be ready, but it seems to be less far along than WOT, at this point. So, if they decide they want to air LOTR in fall of 2021 (which seems a bit early to me; then again, 

I have no evidence to go on), they might push to have WOT ready this spring, rather than wait until the next spring (2022), heaven help us. On the other hand, if LOTR shapes up to be ready in Q1 or Q2 of 2022, and that is determined to be the optimal season of the calendar (following in GOT's early footsteps, if I am not mistaken) then maybe they will sit on WOT until the fall, regardless of whether it is ready to air or not. (There are, after all, dozens of examples of studios holding finished products in the can these days, waiting until they can get a better bang for their buck.)

 

I think it is important to point out, for the sake of all our sanity, that even if they wait until Fall 2021 for any of the numerous credible reasons listed above (and in other people's posts) then we are, at the very, very least, due for some sort of actual film trailer on or before, oh, let's say August 31 of next year...? Less than 9 months away! I think I can make it that long........

[Elder_Haman]

53 minutes ago, Borderlander said:

I wonder also if the biggest deciding factor will be the 800 lb. Balrog in the room.

 

That is indeed an interesting question. Although I would think, if anything, Amazon would want to get WoT out to sort of "prove their bonfides" prior to LotR.

 

 

[Thrasymachus]

I tend to think that the LotR series will be aired in roughly the same block of time as the WoT series, probably sequentially, i.e., one drops in September and the other drops in October, to prevent competitors from snagging viewers away in the downtime between them.  Because they're streaming, and my guess based on nothing more than what they did with the Boys season 2, they'll be at least partially bingeable, I reckon Amazon will see them more as complementary series rather than competing ones.  It'll help to release them close to each other if either one ends up needing a bit of a crutch to maintain viewership.  And if they're both outstanding successes, releasing them sequentially will only build the hype and Amazon's reputation.  At the very least, I don't think they'll try to massage release dates too much so as to maximize or minimize the impact of either show on the other.

 

2 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

This is incorrect. Block 3 finished filming prior to the COVID lockdowns. Block 4 was delayed.

Which still represented a significant amount of filming that got delayed for several months.

2 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

"Extremely naive" seems a little harsh, especially since Rafe said that post-production on WoT is happening simultaneously with principal filming. Pre-lockdown, Judkins was "prepping 2 episodes, shooting 2 episodes, and in post on 4 episodes" while also writing for season 2.

Of course it was, post-production always proceeds apace with filming with these kinds of shows.  They're not gonna wait until everything's been shot before they start cutting, editing, flagging for re-shoots or building special effects.  And that quote reflects that they were about halfway through all the work needed for the first season to be ready to drop.  And then they had to stop everything except some post-production.  Oh, and some script-writing and polishing for season 2, but that doesn't really mean anything for the timeline of season 1.

 

3 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

I'm gonna need a citation for this. No one knows (a) how much post production is left to do; (b) what type of work is necessary for said post production; or (c) how COVID lockdowns will impact said post production.

You really need a citation that Covid slowed down post production?  I'm not saying it stopped it, but don't be ridiculous.  Just the inability of the editing and effects teams from walking down the hallway to look over each other's shoulders, and instead having to wait on downloads and uploads and coordinated zoom calls so they can review each other's work slows the process down.

 

3 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

Citation please. I've seen no such rumor. Indeed, I heard the exact opposite. (Not that I'm denying it - but I've not come across it.

A throwaway reddit account a couple of months ago went on some obscure subreddit to claim that he was part of Amazon's preview program, and that he was offered the opportunity to review the first three episodes.  He claimed the first episode was confusing and muddled, and he didn't bother watching the next two.  There are, of course, others who have claimed to be part of the same program who offer different and more supportive views, including that fellow referenced by Nae'blis in his video from a couple of days ago. 

 

I don't take any supposed preview viewers opinions seriously, but I don't know what all of those opinions are, nor what Amazon's or Rafe's standards for acting on them are.  

 

3 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

I think you missed the point. The point is that the fandom was extremely thirsty for any kind of news. Amazon could have taken the opportunity to state plainly that production had been substantially delayed. They didn't. Instead, they gave us a tease. They know this will fan the flames.

 

Now it wouldn't be unusual for a big company to dump on the fans of a fantasy series, but such a calculated move to tease the fandom if you are planning for release to be more than a year away seems tone deaf and foolish.

Lol.  They've been teasing us from the beginning.  Remember last month, with the special effect Aes Sedai symbol?  Or how about the Wine spring Inn with Thom's voiceover?  This sword reveal isn't anything special, given the previous reveals from the past year, even during the lockdown.  And Amazon's never been tone deaf and foolish, I'm sure.  Though I don't think release is more than a year away.  My best guess for release is September or October of 2021.

 

3 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

I don't know where you're getting that. Game of Thrones, for example, premiered on April 17, 2011. The first actual trailer for that show did not drop until March 10. (The teaser I linked to earlier came out in June of 2010). "Stranger Things" had almost no marketing campaign. There are many ways of getting eyeballs on screens and a 4-5 month window between now and spring is plenty of time. 

Yeah, because nobody expected GoT to be such a breakout hit before it premiered.  It was considered a more niche genre at the time, and all the aSoiF fans already all knew it was coming.  Stranger Things was likewise an unexpected hit.  They're the heavyweights because they upended expectations.  Every indication so far is that Amazon and Rafe want to do everything they can to make sure this is a hit out of the gate.  That means building hype.  Making people who won't have known anything about WoT, except maybe that their weird uncle or cousin read it and loves to talk about it, aware that it's coming, and want to tune in and check it out.  That takes a good first impression/hook and repetition on major media providers and that takes time.  More than a month or even two.

 

What's really naive is thinking that they'll tell us if screen tests go poorly or they have to do substantial re-shoots for any reason.  That's the surest way to lose hype among those already interested and possibly hooked book fans that are wavering.  There's a reason they've only ever had a "2021" release date, without any specificity as to "early 2021" or "mid 2021" or "late 2021." Anybody who's ever followed any kind of production, be it TV shows or movies or games knows that when the production team won't commit to any kind of specific timeline, you always assume the latest time consistent with whatever vague schedule they do admit to.  And that vague, 2021 release date was before Covid.  If they thought it would be "sometime in 2021" before they got shut down, and that shut down added at least a third of a year to their timeline, if not more, is it really reasonable to hope that it'll still release in the first third of 2021?

[Elder_Haman]

13 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

What's really naive is thinking that they'll tell us if screen tests go poorly or they have to do substantial re-shoots for any reason.  That's the surest way to lose hype among those already interested and possibly hooked book fans that are wavering.  There's a reason they've only ever had a "2021" release date, without any specificity as to "early 2021" or "mid 2021" or "late 2021." Anybody who's ever followed any kind of production, be it TV shows or movies or games knows that when the production team won't commit to any kind of specific timeline, you always assume the latest time consistent with whatever vague schedule they do admit to.  And that vague, 2021 release date was before Covid.  If they thought it would be "sometime in 2021" before they got shut down, and that shut down added at least a third of a year to their timeline, if not more, is it really reasonable to hope that it'll still release in the first third of 2021?

I didn’t say they would tell us that screen tests went poorly. I said poor screen tests would give them an opportunity to explicitly play the COVID card. As in, “due to COVID, production has been delayed until 2021.” Amazon has never said this. 
 

So while it is easy to spout off with certainly about how COVID impacted production, no details have released. That means it’s all just sheer speculation. Of course COVID has an an impact. But neither you nor I know the depth of that impact. 
 

That being said, there is a story from early March 2020 (just before COVID blew up, and still a couple of weeks prior to the shutdown) where an Amazon executive discussed how much she loved the rough cut she had already seen. 
 

Rafe (I think) talked about how tightly scheduled the recent post-shutdown filming was - trying to maximize efficiency and get as much work done every day as possible. Why push so hard if you know that you’re not finishing until April?

 

Despite your protestations, there is nothing out there that rules out a Spring 2021 release date. Nor is there any necessity for a massive multi-year marketing campaign. 3-4 months of smart marketing is MORE than sufficient, especially with how thirsty the public is for new streaming content during the COVID lockdowns. 
 

So, yes. It IS reasonable to hope for release in early 2021. If my hope is naive, so be it. But nothing you’ve said convinces me that it is. 

[Thrasymachus]

Wasn't it just reported that production was once again shut down until April?  Not second season production, which has not been officially green-lit yet, and which will require an official green-light before they begin anything beyond script-writing (and they would certainly let us know a second season had been officially purchased).  And they have been playing the Covid card.  Repeatedly.  Nowhere have they said they were able to maintain their original schedule or timeline for release, and while they downplay some of the effects of the various restrictions they've been under to maintain enthusiasm among those of us religiously following them, they also never fail to bring up those lockdowns when talking about how much progress they're making or what their current timeline is looking like.

 

Expectation setting is important.  At least one of us is going to be wrong, and as a result either one of us is going to be pleasantly surprised or the other is going to be pretty disappointed.  Which would you rather be? 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Thrasymachus

[Elder_Haman]

1 hour ago, Thrasymachus said:

Wasn't it just reported that production was once again shut down until April?  

 

No. It wasn't. What was reported was that filming in the Czech Republic was shut down until April. But since they were actively filming in Spain earlier in the week, production clearly hasn't shut down. 

 

1 hour ago, Thrasymachus said:

And they have been playing the Covid card.  Repeatedly.  Nowhere have they said they were able to maintain their original schedule or timeline for release, and while they downplay some of the effects of the various restrictions they've been under to maintain enthusiasm among those of us religiously following them, they also never fail to bring up those lockdowns when talking about how much progress they're making or what their current timeline is looking like.

Maybe we are quibbling over semantics here, but Amazon hasn't said anything official at all. They really haven't even been saying anything unofficial. That's hardly playing the COVID card. 

 

1 hour ago, Thrasymachus said:

Expectation setting is important.  At least one of us is going to be wrong, and as a result either one of us is going to be pleasantly surprised or the other is going to be pretty disappointed.  Which would you rather be? 

The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills. But one thing I've learned is that I'm entirely capable of coping with disappointment. Optimism has served me well. Far better than dwelling on possible disappointment or worrying that I'll be thought naive.

[Thrasymachus]

And as long as you're just setting expectations for yourself, that's fine.  But in a public forum discussion about when it will likely release, we're not just setting our own expectations, we're also setting up expectations for anybody else who comes along to read these discussions, who might be persuaded by our arguments.  I think it's fairly irresponsible to be setting up an expectation for an early 2021 release, and not at all plausible that it could happen.

 

Regarding the reported shutdown until April, the fact that they were able to do some filming in Spain, that they've already completed by everything I've read, has little to to no bearing on whether there is still production to be done in the Czech Republic.  Indeed, the very fact that they're reporting that Wheel of Time production in the Czech Republic has been halted very strongly suggests that there's still more production in the Czech Republic to do, otherwise, the Czech Republic shutdown wouldn't be reported as shutting down Wheel of Time production there.  And it is beyond wishful thinking to suppose that it's second season production that's being affected, when no second season has been officially announced or green-lit.  They don't need an official green-light to start working on second season scripts.  They do need an official green-light to start working on second season production and filming.  And an official green-light for a second season will be widely reported when (and I do believe it will be a when and not an if) it happens.

[Elder_Haman]

2 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I think it's fairly irresponsible to be setting up an expectation for an early 2021 release, and not at all plausible that it could happen.

Stop. I'm just some dude on the internet spouting theories. There's nothing remotely "irresponsible" about it.

 

(Hopefully) we can agree that there has been no official statement from Amazon regarding production being shut down for COVID a second time. If you can find one, link it.

 

What we do know is this:

Prior to COVID, the series was set to premier in 2021. Some speculation began that they might even release in late 2020. An Amazon executive said there was no "target date" but that they had a "target quarter".

 

Originally, shooting for season one was scheduled to begin in September 2019 and end in May 2020.  Production halted due to COVID in March, robbing them of roughly six weeks of filming on block 4. Prior to shut down, 6 episodes were complete and 2 remained to be filmed. Filming resumed on September 7 and concluded in late October, a period of approximately eight weeks. There is no reason to believe that filming for the final two episodes did not wrap up during this time frame. 

 

Post-production work on the first six episodes continued even while filming was shut down. There is absolutely no reason to believe that the remaining post-production work will delay release for more than a year. At this point the only reason for a major delay would be the necessity for major re-shoots. (Quick pick up shots can be done virtually anywhere, provided sufficient planning.)

 

Based on this evidence, I have every legitimate reason to believe that principal filming is complete. There has been no official word to the contrary. I have every legitimate reason to believe that post-production work continues apace. There has been no official word to the contrary. And, given the original production schedule, I have every legitimate reason to believe that release was delayed by 1 quarter or so by COVID. Thus, if Amazon originally planned for a First quarter 2021 release - a spring 2021 debut would fit easily within the time that the project was delayed by COVID.

 

Other things that supporting my idea:

Sarah Nakamura, publicly shared her excitement. She continues to tweet out optimistic things - even giving a wink to the idea of a forthcoming trailer. See here. And she flat out says that the frequency of drops will increase.

 

If pre-screenings have happened (which at least some evidence points to), that is an indicator of movement toward a release. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong. If so, so what? I'm just a dude on the internet. But honestly, spare me the nonsense that I'm being "irresponsible" or that there isn't just as much evidence supporting my conjecture as there is supporting yours.

Edited December 4, 2020 by Elder_Haman

[dssharp]

This is really hard for me to see... elder haman and thrasymachus, two of my favorite contributors on this forum getting annoyed with each other. I can see the points each are making. But tend to agree with elder on this one. I’m not saying it’s going to come that early, but #1 I hope it does, and #2 it is at least plausible. 
 

it may be that I just want to believe that it could be coming soon, and thrasymachus has some good points, but I do think we’ll know by Christmas (which isn’t far away). In truth I would guess it is probably not coming in spring, but I hope it is and elders point are well thought out. 

[Thrasymachus]

21 hours ago, Elder_Haman said:

Stop. I'm just some dude on the internet spouting theories. There's nothing remotely "irresponsible" about it.

 

I think you're selling yourself quite a bit short, my friend, especially on these boards.  As regular contributors here, we've both developed reputations for being knowledgeable, engaged and thoughtful (at least, in my case, I hope I have. I'm much more comfortable asserting that to be the case for yourself).  Casual readers and those who come looking for updates or clarification take what we write more seriously than certain other contributors.  As such, we have a concomitantly greater responsibility to take care to distinguish between what we hope or think, and what we know.  And a responsibility to acknowledge when our theorizing and speculating is based on what we hope, versus being based on what we know.  And really, that's just good mental practice anyway.

 

And I've experienced these kinds of things before, particularly with game releases and the ways they have taken to engaging communities years before they are ready even for early access.  I've seen what happens when prominent community members set up wildly optimistic expectations based on speculations about the implications of this or that feature of production being done or what this or that producer said or didn't say about their roadmap or timeline, only to have those expectations not met.  I've seen how the intended audience reacts to that, how many of them lose interest or begin to become more critical and nit-picky about other things, because something that was widely hoped for, but that should never have been expected, failed to come to pass. 

 

This is a production that's already beset by, what I think we both agree, have been ridiculously racist attacks and unrealistic expectations for a 100% faithful adaptation.  It doesn't need to be saddled with another set of similar expectations regarding its release dates.  

 

Here's what we do know:  The filming in the Czech Republic that resumed in September was was scheduled to continue to December 9th.  The director for the final two episodes had been out there about a week before the Czech Republic shut down again, when he went back home.  The news immediately following this second shutdown was that those last two episodes had still yet to be shot, not that they were the only ones left to do before the first shutdown.  It was, after all, during this second phase of shooting that we first met the wolves.  Unconfirmed reports say that this filming will resume in April.  The filming done in Spain was almost certainly for episodes 3 and 4, as the director on those sets is the director listed for those episodes.

 

We have no reason to believe that principle photography is complete.  That's the kind of milestone that's usually reported.  We have no reason to believe that post-production went largely unhindered, at best, we know that post-production wasn't completely halted.  

 

We also know that "2021" has been the only official release time given, and that they had a "target quarter." Speculations about a possible late 2020 release were only ever that.  Mere speculation.  I do think an early 2021 release, probably just after the Superbowl, was likely their original target.  But this latest shutdown puts their timeline about a full year out from their original filming schedule, not the mere quarter you want to believe, where they had planned to have completed filming in May 2020.  That makes a late 2021 release itself only possible because a lot of post-production work was able to be done during the delay.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Thrasymachus

[Elder_Haman]

7 hours ago, Thrasymachus said:

I think you're selling yourself quite a bit short, my friend, especially on these boards.  As regular contributors here, we've both developed reputations for being knowledgeable, engaged and thoughtful (at least, in my case, I hope I have. I'm much more comfortable asserting that to be the case for yourself).

I appreciate the plaudits. I don’t know that they are deserved. 
 

I also understand your caution. You’ve done an excellent job making your case. I still feel good about mine. 
 

At the end of the day, part of the fun of engaging on these boards is speculating. I think it’s pretty clear that’s what I’m doing. And I’ll be big enough to come back and admit if I’m wrong.