RAGNAROK AVERTED - TOWN WINS (Including EP)

[Andrej]

We already know why the lynch didn’t go through: BG. 

 

D1 we lynched Ed1 and for the Gladiator match the lynch worked. There’s not some weird spooky lynch mechanic other than BG’s abilities.

 

My goodness.

[Andrej]

@Lenlo don’t go out like that

[Nynaeve]

I can switch before bed

[Andrej]

3 minutes ago, Nynaeve said:

I can switch before bed

 

Are you pocketing the s*** outta me this game or what?

[Leyrann]

10 minutes ago, Andrej said:

@Lenlo don’t go out like that

 

Isn't it classic scum!lenlo though, to just give up?

 

May be remembering wrong, haven't played all that much in recent years.

[Andrej]

Lenlo and I slugged it out for two game Days the last time we were Town/Mafia against each other.

 

So not really.

[Leyrann]

Probably just me then.

[Andrej]

18 minutes ago, Nynaeve said:

I can switch before bed

 

Forreal though do whatever you want. I think it may be better than me pointing.

[Nynaeve]

11 minutes ago, Andrej said:

 

Are you pocketing the s*** outta me this game or what?

 

No. I just dont have time and i think you're town so I rather you make use of my votes cause you are caught up and have a deeper understanding of whats going on. Which beats me just shooting in a barrel and hoping for the best because I cant read up. 

 

I could vote by gut but that hardly went well with duke, so.

 

If you want to put your mind at ease-ish i can make a full claim.

[Andrej]

No, that’s not necessary. I know you said you’d be busy but when you’re around you feel like yourself so I have had a hard time reconciling that with the lack of presence. It’s just foreign to me, that’s all.

 

I’m worried BG might end with another No Lynch essentially since I’m starting to think he has to use all his abilities before he can either die or leave the game.

 

I felt good about the Len push but not so much anymore.

 

Arie/Ley/Hallia are all still question marks.

[DPR]

3 hours ago, Andrej said:

@DPR I think BG is most likely what he says he is. Either way, he’s never getting out of this game alive. This lynch is easy and lazy and gives the actual Mafia more time to coast and another NK on Town without being in danger.

 

Lenlo cracks this game open.

 

I have high confidence on EP/Ed being town, which is why I included them. I have more control over the situation than you think.

 

I'm going to work through these one by one to try and show my thought process as I read them. I've left Hally and Ley out of it and will post about them separately.

 

To the above, I can't say I really agree with everything - AJ has taken a more dramatic route and "Lenlo cracks the game open" is a little too drama-rama when I compare it to the cool attitude he had yesterday when I questioned his plan.

 

I can live with "this is how I see it so that's how I'm going to play it" but cracking-the-game-open, especially this game, is a bit over the top. 

 

I also do not share AJ's confidence in EP or ed, as I've stated before.

 

3 hours ago, Lenlo said:

Im not, but ok.

 

I like flips AJ. I have always used flips to both get invested and to update/compare reads and theories. Do you know how hard it is to do that when the game is filled with people who cant die? It really doesnt make a person want to care much.

 

Ready to hear what Lenlo has to say in return, I'm immediately put off by "I like flips". 

 

We're not getting many flips and there is no reason to think that this will change. There is hope that it will, bit nothing beyond that. We need to try something different. 

 

I also don't enjoy rhetorical questions - yes, he knows "how hard it is" because he's playing the game too. 

 

And then I especially don't like the "I don't care anymore" play. This is an eyeball every time for me - If you no longer enjoy the game, okay, just sub out. Keeps it fun for the folks that are enjoying it. 

 

3 hours ago, Lenlo said:

Wow, suddenly I crack this game open? Thats a fast move.

 

Tell me, thought experiment, what happens if I flip town AJ? Where does that leave you and your reads?

 

 

So your cool with leaving the outted 3p alive? Is he easy LyLo lynchbait for you, keep him alive to be safe?

 

You don't know town Len at all! This is apathetic Len.

 

Tell me how Town Len responds to that post AJ? Tell me how you know me better than me?

 

More like an all in "If I say this people know how serious I am, so its going to be ok when Len flips town" post. Its a pre-lynch defense. Hes prepping for when I flip town.

 

The bolded are legitimate points. The rest is more emo.

 

2 hours ago, Andrej said:

 

There’s more than one way to shake out a game than flips. Yeah, that’s sucked obviously but you haven’t been doing much investigating beyond that. I wish I could ISO just to prove the point but I have been waiting days to see what you’d bring to the table on your own.

 

Lets take BG for instance. He’s outed 3P, great. There’s still a Mafia to hunt. You’re not doing that.

 

The bolded here are legitimate points.

 

And then there's the last sentence - completely true and maybe the most important thing said so far. We know there is a Mafia team and it won't be just 1 or 2 players. 

 

When the games get stuck, look at different approaches and players. This is very, very true. 

 

2 hours ago, Lenlo said:

Because theres nothing really to go on.

Kat is lolcatting, no info on that push.

Shad/Duk3, Shad was clearly the townier one so I can hardly fault anyone for lynching Duk3 when it was a forced thunderdome.

Ed was inactive D1 and came back in with a wolfy nothing, so I cant fault people lynching that.

The only real lynch I can judge is BG, the outted non-town who is apparently being defended.

 

There hasnt been a useful flip in days and you people spend so much time arguing with each other about random crap that I understand why no one wants to read it. I dont want to read it. DPR clearly doesnt/isn't reading it. Krak, the IC, hasnt been seen in days.

 

Are you really going to claim that investment, in this particular game of all things, is a useful metric? Did you see what Duk3 was doing before he got lynched? Is that investment?

 

This is just frustration that many of us have have already voiced. It's not moving the game forward - it's leaving things stuck in neutral, and that's not a good sign. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Lenlo said:

Yes, I hope BG would be the lynch, because BG lied. Outted non-town, who said after 1 night they could confirm themselves as town. That never happened. Why is letting an outted non-town live up for discussion?

 

Shoot me or lynch me tomorrow, but dont pretend this is about hunting wolves when you defending the outted non-town.

 

Also what you call complacent I call uninterested. I got bored watching EP clutter the thread with nonsense. As did most people.

 

I am not a fan of BG - I don't disagree with Len's logic here.

 

But damn, "Shoot me or lynch me tomorrow" is one step away from a self-vote. Not good. 

 

"Hunting wolves" can only be measured in activity for now, and AJ's activity is not in question. Defending the outted non-town is not an issue because he's named BG as specifically 3P.

 

And back to being uninterested and bored. 

 

1 hour ago, Andrej said:

You’re making excuses. EP doesn’t hinder you from putting forth an effort. Plenty of people have expressed annoyance there but are still contributing and playing the field. Your scope has been the lynch of the day and that’s what outed you.

 

BG will have his time. His action went through at the very least before the NAs were undone. His claim makes sense with what’s happened so far and he is clearly not being backed by anyone before now because he’s an easy lynch for both Town and Mafia to get on. 

 

You're not even trying to process and adjustwith new info. 

 

Everything here is legit imo. 

 

1 hour ago, Lenlo said:

"His claim makes sense", since when does 3rd party turning town make sense? I myself have made this exact claim, lied through my teeth, for a win.

 

His claim makes 0 sense and he hasnt backed any of it up. 

 

Whatever. Been up sense 5am, im not dealing with this

 

Unvote: Vote: Len

 

When I flip town, lynch/shoot BG, when he flips not-town, think about lynching/shooting AJ.

 

Okay, so this is where he loses me. 

 

It's pretty clear that AJ is not saying BG makes sense as a Towny- he's saying that the possibilities BG presented can only narrow down into a limited number of possible outcomes, and that the game's reaction to him in a larger sense is telling.

 

There is no world where "Whatever" followed by a self vote is helpful to the Town if you are Town.  

 

54 minutes ago, Andrej said:

Like we all know BG is not Town. He’s not living to the end of this game. There’s still Mafia to hunt.

 

you have zero other reads and go with the self voting option?

 

Regardless of your alignment I hoped for more from you. If you’re Town you had the keys to the Ferrari D1 and decided to stay in bed instead.

 

This confirms basic logic and Len has lost perspective outside of the BG vote. 

 

At this point, I don't feel like these guys are bussing one another and I'm feeling good that one or the other is Mafia... I'm starting to catch the "crack the game wide open" vibe. I've been clear about both, but apathy and self voting are goin to lose every time in any Town scenario.

 

It's getting closer to deadline and I'm about ready to start voting...

 

26 minutes ago, Andrej said:

I’m sorry to hear that Len, genuinely dude.

 

Lets lynch BG and be done with it then. Maybe tomorrow can be a different Day. He said he would turn the opposite alignment of whoever he killed, so he shot Sooh thinking she’d flip Mafia and he would become Town. That’s the crux of it. The shot went thru but someone reversed the NKs or I’d be dead too.

 

I don’t particularly trust many atp and Ley makes me especially jumpy.

 

Vote: BG

 

And then this happens.

 

WTF.

 

 

[Nynaeve]

7 minutes ago, Andrej said:

No, that’s not necessary. I know you said you’d be busy but when you’re around you feel like yourself so I have had a hard time reconciling that with the lack of presence. It’s just foreign to me, that’s all.

 

I’m worried BG might end with another No Lynch essentially since I’m starting to think he has to use all his abilities before he can either die or leave the game.

 

I felt good about the Len push but not so much anymore.

 

Arie/Ley/Hallia are all still question marks.

 

And kat?

[Andrej]

Just now, Nynaeve said:

And kat?

 

Shes town imo. Troll PR and all

[Leyrann]

Well, I'm going to bed. DPR another good post I gotta say. You're rising fast in my list.

[Nynaeve]

Arie was quick to hop on my train. Didnt like that. l'll try to go back and read her rationale 

[Nynaeve]

I would prolly be comfortable with a arie/hallia/bg lynch atp.

 

Shad can die too

[Nynaeve]

Ley Im more conflicted about. Going back and forth 

[Andrej]

8 minutes ago, DPR said:

 

I'm going to work through these one by one to try and show my thought process as I read them. I've left Hally and Ley out of it and will post about them separately.

 

To the above, I can't say I really agree with everything - AJ has taken a more dramatic route and "Lenlo cracks the game open" is a little too drama-rama when I compare it to the cool attitude he had yesterday when I questioned his plan.

 

I can live with "this is how I see it so that's how I'm going to play it" but cracking-the-game-open, especially this game, is a bit over the top. 

 

I also do not share AJ's confidence in EP or ed, as I've stated before.

 

 

Ready to hear what Lenlo has to say in return, I'm immediately put off by "I like flips". 

 

We're not getting many flips and there is no reason to think that this will change. There is hope that it will, bit nothing beyond that. We need to try something different. 

 

I also don't enjoy rhetorical questions - yes, he knows "how hard it is" because he's playing the game too. 

 

And then I especially don't like the "I don't care anymore" play. This is an eyeball every time for me - If you no longer enjoy the game, okay, just sub out. Keeps it fun for the folks that are enjoying it. 

 

 

The bolded are legitimate points. The rest is more emo.

 

 

The bolded here are legitimate points.

 

And then there's the last sentence - completely true and maybe the most important thing said so far. We know there is a Mafia team and it won't be just 1 or 2 players. 

 

When the games get stuck, look at different approaches and players. This is very, very true. 

 

 

This is just frustration that many of us have have already voiced. It's not moving the game forward - it's leaving things stuck in neutral, and that's not a good sign. 

 

 

 

I am not a fan of BG - I don't disagree with Len's logic here.

 

But damn, "Shoot me or lynch me tomorrow" is one step away from a self-vote. Not good. 

 

"Hunting wolves" can only be measured in activity for now, and AJ's activity is not in question. Defending the outted non-town is not an issue because he's named BG as specifically 3P.

 

And back to being uninterested and bored. 

 

 

Everything here is legit imo. 

 

 

Okay, so this is where he loses me. 

 

It's pretty clear that AJ is not saying BG makes sense as a Towny- he's saying that the possibilities BG presented can only narrow down into a limited number of possible outcomes, and that the game's reaction to him in a larger sense is telling.

 

There is no world where "Whatever" followed by a self vote is helpful to the Town if you are Town.  

 

 

This confirms basic logic and Len has lost perspective outside of the BG vote. 

 

At this point, I don't feel like these guys are bussing one another and I'm feeling good that one or the other is Mafia... I'm starting to catch the "crack the game wide open" vibe. I've been clear about both, but apathy and self voting are goin to lose every time in any Town scenario.

 

It's getting closer to deadline and I'm about ready to start voting...

 

 

And then this happens.

 

WTF.

 

Stay put then.

 

Like you’ve said, let’s take out the known and then circle back tomorrow. Today has been more informative than the last few at least.

[DPR]

Hally & Ley:

 

Hally said she couldn't vote because she forgot color tags. But, she could have said who she was voting for to help the game along and made it official later. 

 

Ley does seem to be coasting and staying out of any hot zones. 

 

***

 

As I see it right now, the best way to move forward really is between AJ and Lenlo.  

[Andrej]

Also, to be clear. I didn’t say I have high confidence in either Ed or EP’s reads - only their alignment. I feel like that should clarified.

 

Im more willing to give a gun to somehow who I know is playing for Town  even if they turn out wrong than someone I don’t - it’s really that simple.

[Nynaeve]

3 minutes ago, DPR said:

Hally & Ley:

 

Hally said she couldn't vote because she forgot color tags. But, she could have said who she was voting for to help the game along and made it official later. 

 

Ley does seem to be coasting and staying out of any hot zones. 

 

***

 

As I see it right now, the best way to move forward really is between AJ and Lenlo.  

 

Erm, why?

[DPR]

2 minutes ago, Andrej said:

 

Stay put then.

 

Like you’ve said, let’s take out the known and then circle back tomorrow. Today has been more informative than the last few at least.

 

That's too easy of a response.

 

My original suggestion was that everybody vote for the same player to see if that would result in a successful lynch. If that doesn't happen, voting for the same person could result in the same outcome. That's unacceptable. 

 

Today's possible info all gets lost if we don't follow through and you know it. So I need to hear from you exactly why you changed your vote from Len to BG.

[DPR]

1 minute ago, Nynaeve said:

 

Erm, why?

 

I don't see it as a bus attempt and it got too intense for it to be town on town. 

[DPR]

We have a possible power grab that suddenly pumped the brakes vs. a self-voter. There's something here. 

[Andrej]

1 minute ago, DPR said:

 

That's too easy of a response.

 

My original suggestion was that everybody vote for the same player to see if that would result in a successful lynch. If that doesn't happen, voting for the same person could result in the same outcome. That's unacceptable. 

 

Today's possible info all gets lost if we don't follow through and you know it. So I need to hear from you exactly why you changed your vote from Len to BG.

 

Straight up, and as much as it annoys me, Lenlo cares more about is performance as scum - the win - to self sabotage. The stuff I called him on? That stuff is plausible but I don’t think the suicide vote fits. He’d go down fighting me tooth and nail, as we’ve done before not that long ago.