The Mafia Parable: Basic Game OVER

[Gentled Ben]

 

 

 

 

Rand, why do you keep pushing the idea that scum will skip their NK? We have a lynch every day and 3 vig shots - the chances of them skipping a kill are zero. I'd consider the possibility of you just being misguided except that you keep making a point to use profanity, which comes across as staged, which leads me further to believe you're not town.

 

Regardless, if you're not careful, you'll get your mouth washed out with soap and sent to bed with no dinner. Now go do your homework.

I find it interesting that you're not going to point out his use of profanity now along with his early hesitation over the pg-13 rule...

Do you even read bruh?

 

Do you find the bold interesting?

Maybe I didn't read into it what you implied? I saw you point out the profanity, but I didn't see any connection to your earlier points.

 

 

 

I feel like I was pretty clear above: We discussed the pg-13 rule, making it known far and wide. He chooses to ignore it, which seems staged. What purpose could he actually have in doing that? Did he forget about it again already? Was he so emotionally moved that he couldn't post with it? Something else dire? Seems staged.

 

It's wasn't really an implication because I clearly stated it. The stated point is that his is not behavior I would associate with town. It adds to my other points that he doesn't seem to be town.

 

Did you have anything else to add - you said you found it interesting. How so?

 

Okay, here's the exchange, and like Adella, I thought it was interesting that you didn't pounce on the big contradiction between him asking about the CoC and then shortly afterwards, dropping an F bomb. Sure, you point out that he cussed, but you should have said originally (instead of joking about washing out his mouth) what you said in response to Adella (the second response, after ignoring her the first time with a "do you even read, bruh" comment). That you didn't, came across to me as if you were making up a rationale later on, after being pressed for it. It seemed (and still does) scummy to me. 

 

I'm not really defending Rand so much as I'm seeing you put together a really tenuous case on him, and I don't see why you would do that unless you are wrong and stuck there, or you are scum. Rand is pretty active, and when he's not engaged in defending his profanity with you, he is hashing out who is town and who is scum while thinking outside the box a little bit with his "holster the vigs and see what happens" idea from D1. I could see his point, that the wolves would get two birds later in the bush instead of one in their hand at the time, and like you, I could not see how they would actually do that because they will want to kill all the vigs as fast as they can, and Adella had already hard claimed it as well as a target by that time, but I understood the logic. I mean, if he's scum, he is the worst wolf ever after the huge contradiction of asking about profanity just before using some and then urging the town to bank on the mafia not killing vigs asap in order to kill more townies down the road. I think he's as likely to be a rusty townie as an incompetent wolf. The other two would have put him in check by now, not leave him out front to keep being clumsy. That's why I think he's a clumsy town, and you are a lazy wolf, taking the weak sheep.

[Gentled Ben]

 

 

Also Ben I appreciate the defense, I'm just curious to the reason why, are you doing so mainly to build a case on DPR?  If so, that makes sense.  If not, why are you defending me, are you that sure I'm town?  I mean if you are, great that's even better, that doesn't happen often though, especially in a setup like this with no investigation roles.

 

 

 

Post trim fail. Whatever, though.

 

No, I started out as a null on you, and I was making a case against DPR, but as I explained it, I guess I ended up leaning more towards you being town, because if you're scum, you suck at it. Mafia are supposed to overthink their posts because they're worried about getting caught in a contradiction or something, and you aren't doing that at all. However, taking this profanity thing and developing it into "faux outrage" is exaclty the kind of overthinking I would expect from a wolf, so I guess I am leaning town on you now, although it is possible that DPR is town and is right about you, and it's possible that you and DPR are both town, and all three of us are wrong.

[BFG]

Verb, Nyn, shitsure?

[DPR]

 

 

I feel like I'm missing context for a lot of the current debate, but I think Ben believes his points, although I'd feel better if he backed them up with a vote.

 

That said I disagree with his read in general. I think the previous doubling down on the Rand argument is a good look for dpr (although I need to read their back and forth to see how the backing off reads), as third he doubled down on points I disagreed with, but followed a more conventional(?) logic. As town his thought process tends to be more individual(?), although I say that without knowing his mafia game (and taking that with a pinch of salt since I know his opinion of meta :p)

 

 

Ben's vote is on me. I have not backed off my Rand view, if that's who you meant.

 

I know you still think he's scum, I mean the dropping of the first 2 points (at least for now?)

 

 

 

I was only trying to focus on that third point, which I still have no idea what he's talking about.

[DPR]

 

 

 

 

 

Rand, why do you keep pushing the idea that scum will skip their NK? We have a lynch every day and 3 vig shots - the chances of them skipping a kill are zero. I'd consider the possibility of you just being misguided except that you keep making a point to use profanity, which comes across as staged, which leads me further to believe you're not town.

 

Regardless, if you're not careful, you'll get your mouth washed out with soap and sent to bed with no dinner. Now go do your homework.

I find it interesting that you're not going to point out his use of profanity now along with his early hesitation over the pg-13 rule...

Do you even read bruh?

 

Do you find the bold interesting?

Maybe I didn't read into it what you implied? I saw you point out the profanity, but I didn't see any connection to your earlier points.

 

 

 

I feel like I was pretty clear above: We discussed the pg-13 rule, making it known far and wide. He chooses to ignore it, which seems staged. What purpose could he actually have in doing that? Did he forget about it again already? Was he so emotionally moved that he couldn't post with it? Something else dire? Seems staged.

 

It's wasn't really an implication because I clearly stated it. The stated point is that his is not behavior I would associate with town. It adds to my other points that he doesn't seem to be town.

 

Did you have anything else to add - you said you found it interesting. How so?

 

Okay, here's the exchange, and like Adella, I thought it was interesting that you didn't pounce on the big contradiction between him asking about the CoC and then shortly afterwards, dropping an F bomb. Sure, you point out that he cussed, but you should have said originally (instead of joking about washing out his mouth) what you said in response to Adella (the second response, after ignoring her the first time with a "do you even read, bruh" comment). That you didn't, came across to me as if you were making up a rationale later on, after being pressed for it. It seemed (and still does) scummy to me. 

 

I'm not really defending Rand so much as I'm seeing you put together a really tenuous case on him, and I don't see why you would do that unless you are wrong and stuck there, or you are scum. Rand is pretty active, and when he's not engaged in defending his profanity with you, he is hashing out who is town and who is scum while thinking outside the box a little bit with his "holster the vigs and see what happens" idea from D1. I could see his point, that the wolves would get two birds later in the bush instead of one in their hand at the time, and like you, I could not see how they would actually do that because they will want to kill all the vigs as fast as they can, and Adella had already hard claimed it as well as a target by that time, but I understood the logic. I mean, if he's scum, he is the worst wolf ever after the huge contradiction of asking about profanity just before using some and then urging the town to bank on the mafia not killing vigs asap in order to kill more townies down the road. I think he's as likely to be a rusty townie as an incompetent wolf. The other two would have put him in check by now, not leave him out front to keep being clumsy. That's why I think he's a clumsy town, and you are a lazy wolf, taking the weak sheep.

 

 

Color me speechless. 

 

If that's how you see it, I got nothin' for ya man. 

[DPR]

Pivoting back to my earlier question at Rand - can anybody explain to me how Rand's explanation of the mafia killing players less quickly makes any sense at all? 

 

Seriously, anybody?

[DPR]

It's not that the Sooh vote isn't worthy of discussion... it's just that avoiding all of the other discussions makes it way too easy for mafia to hide. 

 

Rand is trying to explain about how the mafia not killing people is an actual thing, Ben sounds like he's been huffing bug spray again.

 

Anybody else got anything? 

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

 

 

 

For the sake of consolidation and self preservation, I'm willing to look at Marsh and Sooh for the lynch.

 

Marsh because I've seen him coast as scum before and because his reversal on Rand feels like coasting to me, along with the fact that he hasn't taken a hard side on anything.

 

Sooh because she hasn't pinged me at all - and that's because she also dod not take sides on anything.

 

The Clov slot should be resolved by BFG, so I'm fine with letting her play that out. Nyn and Verb should move toward resolution for me today with their votes and comments.

I was going to say that if consolidation is needed on my end, Sooh would be the next reasonable lynch option for me, but this slow vote building towards her is feeling bad to me, and is almost identical to what happened to Hally. Of course the initial train on Adella was bad too, so not a great example, but the way the train started on Hally (she was inactive, people missing out and putting their vote on her, etc.) is eerily similar. More on that later.

 

 

I know the setup

 

That will totally help!

First thing you said that I agreed with lol.

 

 

 

 

 

Reads & Reasons Why Players Might be Scum

by

Me

 

...

 

1. Verbal32 - Found it odd he didn't vote D1. Very unhelpful in terms of creating a record to stand on.

2. Ironeyes - Didn't love his reversal on Rand.

 

 

3. DreadPirateRoberts - Towniest Townie that ever Towned.

 

4. Clovdyx - Made some good points so far.

5. Gentled Ben - Playing the newbie card up a more than I'd like to see. Terrible instincts?

 

6. LedZepMan - Town Vanilla

 

7. Shitsure Kamimashita - Started game as an active solver. Slowly faded into background after the fingers started pointing.

 

8. Adella - Town 1x Vigilante

 

9. Nynaeve - Felt okay about her until last night. But, her unnecessary personal attacks and lack of game solving points looks bad.

 

10. Sooh - Hasn't really struck me one way or another. She has been open about not enjoying playing as scum before, but she was more stressed about it then. Null.

 

11. Hallia - Town Vanilla

 

12. RandA lThor - Strongest scum read. I don't buy anything he's selling. I've made mutltiple points, and as those are stacking up. Along with yesterday's points, his fit at EoD felt contrived, as did his profanity "slip" and faux outrage. His logic regarding scum skipping the NK is just a disaster.

 

[v] Rand [/v]

 

 

Aight lets do this for fun. Besides it being suspicious that I didn't remember how the CoC worked and that I have a problem with unconsciously swearing, what other "multiple points" do you have against me? I see that you said fit at EoD and faux outrage (though I'm assuming the second is connected to the swearing thing), but what fit at EoD are you talking about? And my logic regarding scum skipping the NK is a disaster, yet you took 0 time to even argue against it? Why wouldn't scum skip their NK?

 

 

Here ya go pumpkin:

 

1. You joined this PG-13 site when you were about 13, right? And stayed and played mafia for several years, right? Been my experience that everyone is aware of the PG-13 rule - it gets highlighted at least once per game and DM is somewhat unique (at least on the boards I've been on) with that rule.

 

But you "forgot" it.

 

Okay.

 

Magically, you have an amazing memory concerning player's habits. That means you forgot DM had a language code, but you remembered smallish details about Verbal and others.

 

Okay...

 

But then you push it with swearing again on thread, because once again, you just keep forgetting that darn PG-13 rule? And you call it "unconscious swearing", which implies that this happens frequently? It's not game related per say, but I am curious, do you "unconsciously swear" often? Like, in a thesis paper... "The Impact of The F***ing Visigoths During the F***ing Migration Period by Rand F***ing AlThor". Or is it more casual? "Dear Mom & Dad, having a great f***ing time at school! Love, Rand"

 

Thing is, swears convey emotional attachment. That's why people use them. And by conveying emotional attachment in this game, you accomplish a couple of things: you create an air of believability and earnestness and you also to raise the stakes in attacks on your points - kind of like "you don't want to go there with me".

 

These make excellent places for scum to hide. That's what I think you're probably doing. Or, alternatively, we've discovered that you have Tourretet's Syndrome and now you can begin recovery, saving you years of embarrassment on job applications and rsvp's. Win-win.

 

2. And that's where the faux outrage and rahrahrah observations feed in. You notice how you're the only one talking about being around at DL? It's because it's not realistic for everyone to be there, so they just vote. Everybody knows this, so you making a big deal out of people not being around and trying to rally at the end is very likely an attempt to appear super duper townish.

 

You like to use emotion to influence people's opinion of you. It's a decent technique - it's effective as long as nobody pokes holes in the logic of it.

 

So far I've pointed out the possibility that you're using this technique. Your responses to my suss lead me to believe I'm right because a player that wasn't doing it would respond with "whatevs" and not worry about it. You flinched.

 

3. As for your logic disastrophe, there is no scenario where scum skips their NK on N1. It's a time-bomb setup... they have to knock off as many townies as possible as soon as possible to win.

 

Anyone looking for a creative way for scum to skip a NK is most likely scum - nobody else would have reason to think like that.

 

That's why I took 0 time to talk about, and neither did anyone else.

 

We good now?

 

This is a much more fleshed out and formulated argument, thanks

 

1. I've definitely changed a lot since I played here, and one of those ways is that I swear a lot more than when I was here. And like I have to keep saying over and over again, **I did not forget the rule**, I just forgot how strictly it was enforced and what was OK and not OK. Also, its much easier to remember someone's personality than change the way that I've been talking for a few years. No lol, I don't have Tourrette's, but I've also accidentally sworn at family reunions, and uncountable times in front of my parents, fwiw. It's become part of my casual vocabulary which I don't think is some incredible thing, its fairly common to slip up. I see what you're saying with the whole "air of believability thing" but that argument doesn't really make sense when you think about it more. Both town and scum have "earnest" moments in the game where they're trying incredibly hard to do something and will seem very determined. The opposite is true where both scum and town can seem lazy or uninterested. Its more of a null tell than a way to separate scum/town.

 

2. When I mentioned my DL thing, there were also others who agreed with me, so its not like it was just me. And also, like I mentioned before, the thing wasn't just being around at DL. LZM wasn't around and I was fine with that. He also mentioned that he wouldn't be there at DL, which allowed us to keep that in mind and act upon that. Obviously you can't always be around whenever DL is, but its not hard at all to let us know that since we know when DL is 48 hours in advance. At worst, emergencies will come up and that's fine, but that didn't happen to you. Otherwise, scum can be "around" at DL, but not post so they don't have to contribute to town trains like the Hally one, and look better.

 

3. This is the worst of your 3 points by far, and an incredibly shallow perspective from someone I remember making some incredibly complex setups and crazy mafia games and its pinging me hard. I've already explained how by no killing, scum would have a higher expected townies dead till next free day than if they killed. In simpler terms, they wouldn't need to shoot Adella because town would lynch Adella for them, and then they could use the kill the night after. So same number of night kills in that period, but they were able to waste a whole day for town and get an extra dead townie.

 

Okay, forget 1 & 2 for now...

 

Explain again how scum skipping a NK equals the "same number of night kills in that period". Hold my hand like I'm a small child and walk me through this?

I actually love doing this kind of thing so here we go. Since we know that Adella and LZM were town and Adella revealed LZM as her target, this will be easier to describe. Let's take it for granted that what scum did (killing Adella) was the optimal move for them as they didn't want a cleared town if they chose to submit a NK.

 

Scenario 1: Scum submits a NK on Adella

 

Night 1 Result - Adella (town) and LZM (town) both die.

 

Day 2 Result - Town continues normally with a standard day (what's happening right now)

 

Overall Result - 2 town dead, 0 mafia dead, 6-3 town to mafia ratio

 

Scenario 2: Scum does not submit a NK on Adella

 

Night 1 Result - LZM (town) dies.

 

Day 2 Result - Adella looks like scum with only one kill submitted who fake claimed to save herself. Town lynches Adella. Adella (town) dies.

 

Night 2 Result - Scum has another night to target town. Some town dies.

 

Day 3 Result - Town continues normally with a standard day (what's happening right now)

 

So if scum didn't submit a NK night 1, and did night 2, we'd be in the same situation we're in right now but with one less townie in our group, which is definitively worse. Luckily scum didn't see that when it happened, but it pretty definitely helps out scum to not help confirm Adella.

 

Sooh (tldr ISO)

 

I actually liked the early vote on Verb, I know it's 'just' RVS and means little, but it's an early indication of being relaxed in thread, there's a tonal contrast with how she reacts to Verb later. There isn't a huge amount after, scum read on Adella, town read on LZM, Nyn and Verb, null on Hallia. she was around for end of Day 1, but didn't move her vote off a claimed vig. And then there's the vig claim discussion and 'don't shoot me' all of which is pretty much null (or at least I'm reading from two possible opposite perspectives ). Hasn't posted Day 2

 

Would ~guess that Soon/Rand aren't teamed based on the end of day posting thing and Nyn looks good in some of the quoted posts

 

Sooh hasn't posted anything that's made me feel bad, but I dislike the surface level thoughts she's showing. The switch on Verb who she'd been reacting badly to to a town read comes from nowhere and is for??? resons (unless he posted lots of stuff I haven't read in between )

 

Could vote here

Can you expand on why Sooh and I wouldn't be on the same team? Because for me at the very least, that's a case for Sooh being scum

 

Also Ben I appreciate the defense, I'm just curious to the reason why, are you doing so mainly to build a case on DPR? If so, that makes sense. If not, why are you defending me, are you that sure I'm town? I mean if you are, great that's even better, that doesn't happen often though, especially in a setup like this with no investigation roles.

 

Your scenario assumes that Adella would be an automatic lynch if mafia no shot. Given it's an open setup I'd be reluctant to lynch a claim, given their are other ways to vet them. I appreciate that's not really the point you're making though

 

I mean I doubt you'd be m/m, Sooh's post towards you about the end of day stuff didn't read as to a teammate, given the context of her other posting at the time (focused more on 'bad shot') it reads strangely and would draw attention to you if she was bigger and you were teammates

 

While clearly formatting failure going on here, vote is valid so counting it.

 

Correct me if not your intent. I hurt my head trying to figure the post out.

[Eldrick4221]

Vote Count (2.3):

 

Rand (1/5): DPR

DPR (2/5): Rand, Ben

Marsh (2/5): SK, BFG

Sooh (1/5): Marsh

 

Not voting (3/9):

Nyn, Sooh, Verb

 

[BFG]

Marsh has 3 posts I think look good for him, his post towards Rand about players remembering cases against themselves more clearly, his post about shotsures experience levels, and his confidence that he's on his town meta (dumbly I also like the magic reference )

 

That said he seems to be metaphorically 'popcorning' at times (e.g. Nyn/dpr) and his reads don't seem to flow easily (Nyn bottom end of null, Sooh/Rand trending up night1, yet the point he made about Rand poking holes in his theory is one that he counter argued Rand was scum for, he's now voting Sooh for early game stuff and forgotten(?) whatever she said that had her trending up end of day and hasn't mentioned Nyn although she seemed to be a candidate yesterday. The reads seem shallow and I still dislike the reason given for the vote on Hallia

[BFG]

[v]Marsh[/v]

[BFG]

I'm unlikely to be around at end of day

[Eldrick4221]

A bit of digging and realized you were quoting DPR. Was in the middle of editing the VC, so I added your Marsh vote.

[DPR]

I'm unlikely to be around at end of day

 

 

Rand will be very disappointed. An admonishment is not out of the question. 

[BFG]

It's not that the Sooh vote isn't worthy of discussion... it's just that avoiding all of the other discussions makes it way too easy for mafia to hide. 

 

Rand is trying to explain about how the mafia not killing people is an actual thing, Ben sounds like he's been huffing bug spray again.

 

Anybody else got anything?

Ben sounded good to me earlier, don't have a read on rand atm

[DPR]

I also will require teh admonishment...

 

[v] Marsh [/v]

[BFG]

 

I'm unlikely to be around at end of day

 

 

Rand will be very disappointed. An admonishment is not out of the question.

 

Heh

[BFG]

A bit of digging and realized you were quoting DPR. Was in the middle of editing the VC, so I added your Marsh vote.

Sorry for the headache :(

[BFG]

Night all <3

[Ironeyes]

 

 

Holy crap, I was expecting like ten pages of stuff to catch up on when I got back, but then there's this... I'm pretty sure the deadline is in like two hours, which is when I'll be taking a final. So I'll [v]Sooh[/v]. I said she'd have a chance to convince me my initial read was wrong, but this isn't a convincing action. 

 

 

@Ironeyes sure, but reasons were already given to why Hallia was scum you were piling on more reasons. One such reason was: if she flips town it's still good for town is not compelling it doesn't make much sense to me. I am paraphrasing of course it was more along the lines of if hallia is lynched we get to know nyn alignment, so what is nyns alignment Ironeyes? To me it looks like setting up mislynches. #foundscum

[v] Ironeyes [/v]

How much experience do you have playing this game? I ask because this is the kind of post I expect from someone with three games or less under their belt. You are misrepresenting what I said: I never claimed we would "know" Nyn's alignment. I said I would lean a certain way based on the flip. Therefore, my read on Nyn became closer to scum because Hallia was town. It would have gone the opposite way if Hallia had been scum. 

 

Also. I don't set up mislynches as scum. Ask anyone who's ever played with me. Or look in my sig for a summary of my meta, courtesy of Chris. I'm more interested in self-preservation as scum and will try to be everyone's friend. Going out on a limb to say something I know people aren't going to like is more in line with my town game. 

 

 

 

Marsh (think it was you ) when you voted hallia you said you've seen her tune out as scum before, how much experience do you have with town/mafia Hallia?

I've played at least two games with her as each in the last year or so. Unfortunately my memory for game titles is awful so I'd have to do some research to tell you which ones.

What differences would you expect from a town/scum Hallia?

 

I'll check your original point in a minute, but Hallia has been low activity regardless of role or alignment in every game I'm aware of in the last 9 months or so. She was active (as town and mafia) last Summer, so I don't think activity has ever been a way to judge her alignment

Hally is usually low activity, but never completely gone as town. She pops in once or twice a day with some content or a vote. The time I most clearly remember her as scum, she posted like three time total. IIRC that was a game where we got one of her teammates early and were on a roll. 

[Ironeyes]

@Ironeyes sure, but reasons were already given to why Hallia was scum you were piling on more reasons. One such reason was: if she flips town it's still good for town is not compelling it doesn't make much sense to me. I am paraphrasing of course it was more along the lines of if hallia is lynched we get to know nyn alignment, so what is nyns alignment Ironeyes? To me it looks like setting up mislynches. #foundscum

[v] Ironeyes [/v]

Scummy

 

[v]Marsh[/v]

Towny

 

I also will require teh admonishment...

 

[v] Marsh [/v]

Scummy but less so. 

[Ironeyes]

 

[snipped]

I was going to say that if consolidation is needed on my end, Sooh would be the next reasonable lynch option for me, but this slow vote building towards her is feeling bad to me, and is almost identical to what happened to Hally.  Of course the initial train on Adella was bad too, so not a great example, but the way the train started on Hally (she was inactive, people missing out and putting their vote on her, etc.) is eerily similar.  More on that later.

What slow building? Everyone and their little brother seems to be FOSing Sooh, and yet I'm the only vote on her. That, if anything, solidifies my determination to continue voting her. I strongly suspect that a sizeable portion of the sussing is just shade by teammates who have no intention of following through. 

[Ironeyes]

 

 

[snipped]

I was going to say that if consolidation is needed on my end, Sooh would be the next reasonable lynch option for me, but this slow vote building towards her is feeling bad to me, and is almost identical to what happened to Hally.  Of course the initial train on Adella was bad too, so not a great example, but the way the train started on Hally (she was inactive, people missing out and putting their vote on her, etc.) is eerily similar.  More on that later.

What slow building? Everyone and their little brother seems to be FOSing Sooh, and yet I'm the only vote on her. That, if anything, solidifies my determination to continue voting her. I strongly suspect that a sizeable portion of the sussing is just shade by teammates who have no intention of following through. 

After all, the lynch has just been derailed off of her and on to me, allowing her to skate by another phase. 

[Ironeyes]

Either I misread the deadline or it was changed, because I thought it was five minutes ago. 

 

*checks again

 

Nope, it's in two hours. And once again I'll be in class, but this isn't a test so I can be present in thread. Probably to watch my own demise, but w/e

[Ironeyes]

Ten players left, presumably three scum. I get lynched, scum shoot town, odds become five to three. Or alternately one of the vigs shoots and the odds either become five to two or four to three. This game gets hecka swingy after this. Vig shots become super powerful.