[Game thread]Magic The Gathering

[Eldrick4221]

 

[unvote]

 

I will go bfg or dice. Not voting Shad.

 

There are obviously points I have against him, but I'm swaying town.

I disagree, but I'll do what is best for town. Seeing as I don't think using a lynch on BFG today is a smart move, that leaves dice.

....

 

You don't have to follow me lol

[Shanti]

 

 

[unvote]

 

I will go bfg or dice. Not voting Shad.

 

There are obviously points I have against him, but I'm swaying town.

I disagree, but I'll do what is best for town. Seeing as I don't think using a lynch on BFG today is a smart move, that leaves dice.

....

 

You don't have to follow me lol

 

 

I'm not

[Shanti]

 

 

 

[unvote]

 

I will go bfg or dice. Not voting Shad.

 

There are obviously points I have against him, but I'm swaying town.

I disagree, but I'll do what is best for town. Seeing as I don't think using a lynch on BFG today is a smart move, that leaves dice.

....

 

You don't have to follow me lol

 

 

I'm not

 

 

I'm thinking outloud

[Eldrick4221]

Shanti. What you you think about what I said about it being unlikely that the team is dice/shad/nyn

 

How dice would have called out one teammate for the wolf head thing and defended the other. Do you see scum drawing attention to their whole team like that right off the bat?

[Eldrick4221]

Vote count:

 

Dice (3): Killanos, Adella, Eldrick

 

BFG (1): Dice

 

DPR (2): BFG, Shad,

 

Shad (2): Shanti, DPR

 

Not voting (1): Cass

 

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

 

[Eldrick4221]

:)

[Shanti]

Shanti. What you you think about what I said about it being unlikely that the team is dice/shad/nyn

 

How dice would have called out one teammate for the wolf head thing and defended the other. Do you see scum drawing attention to their whole team like that right off the bat?

 

I think that they couldn't control nyn, she was a wildcard. So I believe they intended to distance from the get go so that if things started crashing and burning, it'd be harder to prove their scummates. 

 

See, I'm a skeptical person so yes I see them drawing attention to their whole team right off the bat, because its the perfect way to hide in plain sight.

 

I don't think they expected Nyn to be so hard to handle, though, personally.

[Shanti]

@Shad, I can't find where you mentioned me needing to calm down with the 100% and yadda yadda yadda and you're right.

I am just a very confident person when I make up my mind, but I can see how that would be misleading so.....

 

I am 99.9% sure you're scum. :) Better?

[Shanti]

And that is simply because no, I cannot say without a doubt that you're scum... but I feel strongly enough about it that you only get the 00.1% of doubt there.

[Adella]

 

Apparently this is the game where no one is allowed to play how they play *shrug* I'm over it, I'm gonna play my game and just ignore those who think it's ok to tell others how to play.

Who's this in reference to?

Everyone who has commented on "a real townie wouldn't ______ and this is pissing me off" or that people are being too aggressive, or too passive, or that we aren't playing because we joke on occasion. All of that.

[Eldrick4221]

He was right about that. Don't say 100%. It's code for you know the alignment.

[Shanti]

I don't know why this irks me....but when DPR is proving Shad's scumminess, he gives reasons, quotes, etc....

 

When dice is asked about Shad's scumminess, he mentioned the wolf's head once, but the entire ordeal with nyn discredited his take on who would or wouldn't post a wolf's head as scum. He just says... Shad is scum. From what I can see (it may be somewhere in the 93 posts) he doesn't really back up why.

 

Same goes for Shad being asked about Dice....he's just scum and can die... he also keeps pointing to DPR/Dice as the final two scummates, will vote for DPR but not dice...

 

Just as since d1, Dice won't vote Shad although he's had multiple opportunities to do so with support.

 

This is what irks me the most. 

 

DPR seems the most town out of all three with scum hunting.

[Shanti]

He was right about that. Don't say 100%. It's code for you know the alignment.

 

Yeah, didn't realize. I am still new. =/

[Cass]

DPR switching of BFG contradicts a lot of the theory he came up with earlier- lynch BFG first in case we're wrong, have a smaller pool to shoot from tomorrow, reducing our chance of mislynch.

And that switch bothers me on the chance that Shad is Town.

 

He makes (to me) very good arguments for lynching BFG today:

 

 

 

 

Help me to simplify this - numbers wise it doesn't make a difference if you're 3P and you swing because you're not Town. Say your claim is true - you don't count as Town right now, so even though we have 9 players on the board, it might as well be 8 for the sake of the Town - right? 

 

If we lynch you today, we get rid of a guaranteed threat to Town. We don't have to speed-lynch you. We can talk about everything, give the day it's due and squeeze the info down to the last drop, but you ain't gonna get anyone past the point that with anyone else, we're taking a chance on a mislynch. With you, we get that guaranteed non-town. 

 

Fullstop.

 

We also get the info of whether you're what you say or Mafia. 

 

The we get the info of the NK. 

 

Town starts D4 knowing a lot more than we do today. Simples. And we didn't cost ourselves a thing in the process, because you ain't Town.

 

 

 

 

No. That has nothing to do with the argument I made, which is that the at F6, BFG will have had plenty of time to settle into her claim and push someone else out from that looks more scummish. I do it all the time. That's why I despise the "let me live another day" routine - I know exactly what that is. 

 

 

 

I left Eldrick out - I don't see scum here. I didn't with Alfred and I don't with Eld. I don't understand why he wants to let claimed non-Town live (I get the "logic", but again, it's so transparent. Regardless...) but instincts. 

 

 

I think you are confused - she does not count toward Town numbers. She's not a mislynch - she's not anything but non-town.

 

She can't count toward Town numbers if she is going to be removed form the game on her win. 

 

It's like voting No-Lynch but getting info anyway. 

 

 

 

Your scenario: we are currently @ 6T / 2M / 1S.  We lynch BFG and she's S - Mafia gets a NK - We wind up @ 5T / 2M

 

Okay.

 

But, if we mislynch - say Shad or dice is not Mafia after all - we wind up at 4T / 2M / 1S 

 

That puts us at endgame and if we mislynch again, we lose. Plus we have a non-town putting their 2cents in. 

 

***

 

My way, we lynch BFG today, and even if she's not scum, we get 2 more chances to lynch. Plus, we have the advantage of the info that 2 more deaths will bring, which means tomorrow we start at 5T / 2M and are shooting into a pool of 7 instead of 9. 

 

If we mislynch again tomorrow, we are shooting into a pool of 5 and our chances are much, much higher of hitting scum. 

 

I think BFG makes all the sense in the world, but I'm done trying to sell it. I'll just move to Shad in hopes of hitting scum there. I don't see moving to anyone else. 

 

 

 

 

 

The bold all makes sense to me. 

 

 

What strikes me as off is I come in with an answer to a question he asked, am agreeing with the lynch the known non-Town, have a 5T / 2M pool rather than a 4T / 2M / 1 likely to switch it up and vote either way; 

 

 

 

WRT to question on the first bold - I was working on the "If her claim is true - ie if she can only win with Town"

 

Given further thought that I think she's most likely to be independent and have to switch for wincon, it doesn't necessarily apply?

 

(EBWOP - DPR this ^ was the answer to the question you missed/ignored)

 

@Shad?

 

IIRC you brought up/explain that fact, plus mention that she's playing with the wind out of her sails?

 

 

Why lynch DPR over her today?

 

 

Make it clear that BFG is my lowest read and a possibility for lynch - at the time I was in the deciding position

 

 

Cass. What are your reads?

 

If you want reads they're currently

 

Shanti - She's either Town or D2 was Crunkus-level AtE AND a gambit that 

 

DPR/Dice/Killanos/Adella/Shad/Alf-Eldrick

 

BFG - played more Townsided this phase since claim ?independent/will switch

 

 

I have a page of thoughts and notes but it's essentially indecision on Shad/DPR/Dice, Possi-Tinfoil on Killanos/Adella - Adella I haven't ISO'd, and for your slot fighting the notion that Alf was probably scummy so you are too.

 

 

And immediately after, he switches to:

 

Based on our delightful repartee':

 

[v] Shad [/v]

 

 

 

I have issues with this.

 

Why discount all the theory you've been pushing/seem to believe to vote elsewhere - regardless of whether you think that person is scummy or not, when that person could be a mislynch?

Especially when somebody else comes in and agrees with your theory/could be set to go there too?

 

WRT rest of ISO I also have issues with his stance on CuthaNyn given their flip. I am having trouble trying to read his tone/attitude and pushes - they feel inherently scummy to me, and I have issues with the way he has avoided my questions and imo possi-pushed shade on me/linked me with other players - the buddying post from Cuth in particular where focus is taken away from Cuth and twisted towards me. I feel like there's an element of setting up a linear line of suspects ('X and X are Scummy. If it's not BOTH of them, it might be Y and Y') that imo doesn't fit the Town mindset of 'X, X and X are scummy' . I've questioned this but he didn't answer. I replied to his concerns on me and he gives no real response. That makes him a very likely suspect for Scum to me, but I'm not sure. I remember him having attitude towards Nin in Hackers that is similar to his attitude with Shad/me here when he was pushing for her mislynch, but I don't know how early in his play that started, or if there's a general meta difference in when/how he pushes.

[Cass]

Dammit I didn't want to have to get my brain into this.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

The argument for leaving BFG alive is that we leave her alive but DISCOUNT her, and aim for scum, risk being we mislynch and we go to endgame?

 

The argument for taking her out is we get confirmed non-Town and have a smaller pool hunt scum in tomorrow, reducing our chance of mislynch?

[Shanti]

I just want to throw out there that I don't think either of them would be unwilling to pulling a Tigs (sorry sister, if you're still watching) to cover their butts when it comes down to it. 

I wouldn't put it past them to plan it that way either. 

 

After each of my re-reads (and I've done quite a few)

I keep coming to the same conclusion. I'm not tunneling, I DO go back with fresh eyes. I DO go back and attempt to see it another way, but their interactions....just most of it seems scummy and scummatey.

It's genius really, to play it as they have if its the case. They have essentially made it truly difficult to prove they're partners. But I have to trust my gut and my instincts...and both of those say I'm right.

[Eldrick4221]

He was pushing for BFG all day and getting no support and a lot of the contrary. Read to me like he back burner'd it and went with his other scum read.

 

Don't see a problem with that.

[DPR]

OK so, in regards to the BFG claim, I am really probably not the best to weigh in on that as I believe her. Maybe its because I'm new and my very first game was thought to be basic, but there was a 1 shot role that tried to use it, got blocked, and got to use it again..everyone said thats not typical of the mod to do....so at this point, I can't sit here and believe that mod wouldn't throw in a twist such as that ESPECIALLY since no crazy roles have been revealed so far. IIRC..people were saying Tigs being who she said she was, wasn't likely, yet here we are.

 

As far as DPR pushing, I can't really say much in the way of him voting Shad, because me having the stance on BFG, most logical vote to me right now, is Shad. Not because Shad is pushing for BFG lynch, but because as I was reading the exchange between Dice, DPR, and Shad it truly seemed as if Dice and Shad had taken on the roles as bad cop, good cop, to guide DPR to a BFG lynch.  As to why he is voting Shad but still going on and on and on about BFG, he's still tunneled on BFG and her reveal and it seems an attempt to stop tunneling so hard, but I feel that he and Shad both are quite worked up at this point and a step back will do them both some good. 

 

 

 

 

OK so, in regards to the BFG claim, I am really probably not the best to weigh in on that as I believe her. Maybe its because I'm new and my very first game was thought to be basic, but there was a 1 shot role that tried to use it, got blocked, and got to use it again..everyone said thats not typical of the mod to do....so at this point, I can't sit here and believe that mod wouldn't throw in a twist such as that ESPECIALLY since no crazy roles have been revealed so far. IIRC..people were saying Tigs being who she said she was, wasn't likely, yet here we are.

 

As far as DPR pushing, I can't really say much in the way of him voting Shad, because me having the stance on BFG, most logical vote to me right now, is Shad. Not because Shad is pushing for BFG lynch, but because as I was reading the exchange between Dice, DPR, and Shad it truly seemed as if Dice and Shad had taken on the roles as bad cop, good cop, to guide DPR to a BFG lynch. As to why he is voting Shad but still going on and on and on about BFG, he's still tunneled on BFG and her reveal and it seems an attempt to stop tunneling so hard, but I feel that he and Shad both are quite worked up at this point and a step back will do them both some good.

Can you go into more detail on that? It read to me like dpr did that all on his own.

 

 

Yeah, let me see if I can find it. Gimme a minute.

 

 

You find it? That's a tough sell.

 

I'm considering a bfg lynch.

 

Worst case scenario she is Survivor and we go into a regular 5v2

 

Best case scenario she's scum.

 

We know she isn't town. I seriously don't think she's scum, and would obviously rather lynch scum. If we are able to lynch scum today and tomorrow and she's able to win with us, that would be the best route.

 

But today has been focused around her and is detracting from scum hunting.

 

I swear I've heard this before... but where?

 

 

Shanti. What you you think about what I said about it being unlikely that the team is dice/shad/nyn

 

How dice would have called out one teammate for the wolf head thing and defended the other. Do you see scum drawing attention to their whole team like that right off the bat?

 

I think that they couldn't control nyn, she was a wildcard. So I believe they intended to distance from the get go so that if things started crashing and burning, it'd be harder to prove their scummates. 

 

See, I'm a skeptical person so yes I see them drawing attention to their whole team right off the bat, because its the perfect way to hide in plain sight.

 

I don't think they expected Nyn to be so hard to handle, though, personally.

 

 

 

This is a completely inaccurate representation of Nyn. Just sayin'.

[Eldrick4221]

Dammit I didn't want to have to get my brain into this.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

The argument for leaving BFG alive is that we leave her alive but DISCOUNT her, and aim for scum, risk being we mislynch and we go to endgame?

 

The argument for taking her out is we get confirmed non-Town and have a smaller pool hunt scum in tomorrow, reducing our chance of mislynch?

The argument for leaving her alive is that she is likely not scum. That we should lynch scum. She can live as long as she won't be a liability.

[Adella]

You don't think Nyn is a wildcard? >.>

[Shad_]

Got a couple of minutes, won't be around long

 

As for the doc part, we have discussed this. It's not about reads. It's the mechanics.

If there was a doc, and they believed they had protected someone, they wouldn't know they were the result of no death. It could have easily been scum hitting her vest as it could a doc protect.

If there was a doc that targeted bfg, they could assume bfg is lying about the vest. Doesn't make the rest of the claim false.

There isn't a single scenario that the doc would benefit from revealing. There is no way the doc would know anything about bfg. All the doc can possibly know is whether or not their target dies. Which is why I read your talk about the doc as fishing. Doc revealing only helps scum.

 

Thanks for responding.
 

I think at some point my head got spun around processing this because I can't see a doc confirming that BFG is scum as I'm parsing it right now.

 

This is the angle I was thinking at regarding confirmation when I first got there:

 

If we were going to lynch BFG today, doc should claim, specifically because if no one claims then we know BFG is telling the truth about a vest and won't need to waste the lynch.

 

Inverse of if claim then lie is not true and at some point I think my head snuck that in the mix.

 

If we aren't lynching her there is no reason to claim.

 

If we are lynching her (before F6) it should only be under the condition that someone counters her claim.  The counter doesn't prove her false but lack of an actual doc proves her true and a wasted lynch.

[Eldrick4221]

Dpr. Please address my question about your pocketing comment before.

[Shad_]

OK so, in regards to the BFG claim, I am really probably not the best to weigh in on that as I believe her. Maybe its because I'm new and my very first game was thought to be basic, but there was a 1 shot role that tried to use it, got blocked, and got to use it again..everyone said thats not typical of the mod to do....so at this point, I can't sit here and believe that mod wouldn't throw in a twist such as that ESPECIALLY since no crazy roles have been revealed so far. IIRC..people were saying Tigs being who she said she was, wasn't likely, yet here we are.

 

As far as DPR pushing, I can't really say much in the way of him voting Shad, because me having the stance on BFG, most logical vote to me right now, is Shad. Not because Shad is pushing for BFG lynch, but because as I was reading the exchange between Dice, DPR, and Shad it truly seemed as if Dice and Shad had taken on the roles as bad cop, good cop, to guide DPR to a BFG lynch.  As to why he is voting Shad but still going on and on and on about BFG, he's still tunneled on BFG and her reveal and it seems an attempt to stop tunneling so hard, but I feel that he and Shad both are quite worked up at this point and a step back will do them both some good. 

 

If you still think I am trying to "guide people" to lynch BFG then lolololololol

[Shanti]

Dammit I didn't want to have to get my brain into this.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

The argument for leaving BFG alive is that we leave her alive but DISCOUNT her, and aim for scum, risk being we mislynch and we go to endgame?

 

The argument for taking her out is we get confirmed non-Town and have a smaller pool hunt scum in tomorrow, reducing our chance of mislynch?

 

I just personally don't want to waste a vote on her when I feel more strongly about needing to eliminate others. I do get the logic of what you're saying. 

But when I feel as strongly as I do, and seeing as I believe her reveal, it is unproductive for me to vote her.

In my eyes, we lynch someone we believe to be scum, in this case my vote is sitting on Shad...then his scum mate (in this case I think its Dice) gets off his NK and that tells us more than

We lynch her, she was telling the truth, two scum get their nk instead of one so we are left tomorrow with fewer people hunting an extra scum than we would have going the other route.

[Eldrick4221]

Got a couple of minutes, won't be around long

 

As for the doc part, we have discussed this. It's not about reads. It's the mechanics.

 

If there was a doc, and they believed they had protected someone, they wouldn't know they were the result of no death. It could have easily been scum hitting her vest as it could a doc protect.

 

If there was a doc that targeted bfg, they could assume bfg is lying about the vest. Doesn't make the rest of the claim false.

 

There isn't a single scenario that the doc would benefit from revealing. There is no way the doc would know anything about bfg. All the doc can possibly know is whether or not their target dies. Which is why I read your talk about the doc as fishing. Doc revealing only helps scum.

Thanks for responding.

 

I think at some point my head got spun around processing this because I can't see a doc confirming that BFG is scum as I'm parsing it right now.

 

This is the angle I was thinking at regarding confirmation when I first got there:

 

If we were going to lynch BFG today, doc should claim, specifically because if no one claims then we know BFG is telling the truth about a vest and won't need to waste the lynch.

 

Inverse of if claim then lie is not true and at some point I think my head snuck that in the mix.

 

If we aren't lynching her there is no reason to claim.

 

If we are lynching her (before F6) it should only be under the condition that someone counters her claim. The counter doesn't prove her false but lack of an actual doc proves her true and a wasted lynch.

Please explain how a doc revealing could possibly benefit town.