[Basic]What's the theme? - ad lib mafia

[Eldrick4221]

  On 1/27/2017 at 5:08 PM, Darthe said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:28 AM, Eldrick4221 said:

with that in mind, going for darthe or marsh today for a 2/3 chance of hitting the right team.

Aaand you're back on my bad side.

That's how it goes. I listed the 3 setups that make the most sense. You and Marsh show up in 2 of the 3. You two are mathematically more likely to be scum.

[Eldrick4221]

Darthe's continued avoidance 9f talking about how verb would be scum if I'm town is really starting to make me think they are scum together.

[Eldrick4221]

Putting my vote back on. Took it off for discussion, which resulted in a train on AJ. I think that train is wrong.

 

[V]Darthe [/v]

[Eldrick4221]

  On 1/27/2017 at 3:43 PM, Verbal32 said:

I did not town read AJ - as a matter of fact, we seem to have passed each other in that he's feeling better about me as time goes on and I'm becoming more and more nervous about him.

 

That said, I'm not ready to lynch him right now. I think I'd prefer Marsh. This whole "ignoring me" thing is a scum ploy to show engagement and the lack of another's, and it is pure BS.

 

 

 

I'm open to discussion, though. I don't think I want to lynch AJ or Eldrick today, but I'd be willing to discuss anybody else, with a preference for Marsh.

I think it's things like this that made me think you were defending him. I'll have to go back and check if you did the "not town reading him, but don't want to vote him" before.

[Eldrick4221]

  On 1/25/2017 at 5:04 PM, Verbal32 said:

 

  On 1/25/2017 at 12:47 PM, Niniel said:

Marsh - It´s the same reasons I had before, because of his D1 read on Hallia and voting Eldrick. I have no notes from him N1 and D2. I don´t really get the back and forth between him and Verb. He seems to think that Verb ignored him but I don´t think I get it. Darthe seems sure about him being town though. Meh.

 

 

Thank god I'm not the only one here, lol.

 

 

 

  On 1/25/2017 at 1:08 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

[unvote]

[v]Eldrick[/v]

Don't care anymore. Have fun figuring out the rest of the game.

Still probably one in Verb/Marsh

Probably one in Darthe/AJ/Nini. Maybe Lenlo

Still confident MrsClov and Dice are town.

 

 

I know you unvoted from this, but please don't post like this again.  I could have easily given up, but I've fought to be off the lynch when it is clear there is a movement to lynch me.

 

Actually, that certain people haven't noticed this is not my scum game makes me pretty sure we are literally going in the opposite direction we should be.

 

 

One of MrsClov/AJ/Darthe is scum.  Very confident.

 

That said, I know I'm not getting any of them lynched today.  If my flip helps pave the way for a town win, I'm down.  But I think Marsh or Tina could be the other one.  I don't think Eldrick is scum based on the above quote.  I really don't.

This is probably why I got that idea in my head. "Likely scum but not voting there"

 

To be fair, you didn't vote there because you didn't see it happening, not because you didn't think he was scum.

 

Have your reads changed since this post?

[dicetosser1]

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:47 PM, Andrej said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 11:04 AM, dicetosser1 said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:36 AM, Andrej said:

I don't think it's Verb.

 

I think there's a decent chance of scum being within Marsh/Nini. Both have been stuck on Verb for two Days and both stayed off the Hallia wagon.

 

I don't like how Dice has been soft sussing me all game. It's been happening since D1 with his "AJ should read me better" line to "I can't read him as well as I used to" to "he doesn't have the same bite I expect" from this past Night. You can either read or you can't bro, pick one.

 

Darthe could be scum too. His alignment sort of hinges on yours tbh but this fight feels Hackers-esq where he wants you dead and badly.

ive been pretty open about it but if you want a hard sus?

 

voteAJ

Youre a wolf

 

 

nope. 

 

 

and i moved to len because i thought it was tied and marsh made a good point 

[Eldrick4221]

  On 1/27/2017 at 8:29 PM, dicetosser1 said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:47 PM, Andrej said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 11:04 AM, dicetosser1 said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:36 AM, Andrej said:

I don't think it's Verb.

I think there's a decent chance of scum being within Marsh/Nini. Both have been stuck on Verb for two Days and both stayed off the Hallia wagon.

I don't like how Dice has been soft sussing me all game. It's been happening since D1 with his "AJ should read me better" line to "I can't read him as well as I used to" to "he doesn't have the same bite I expect" from this past Night. You can either read or you can't bro, pick one.

Darthe could be scum too. His alignment sort of hinges on yours tbh but this fight feels Hackers-esq where he wants you dead and badly.

 

ive been pretty open about it but if you want a hard sus?voteAJ

Youre a wolf

 

nope. 

 

 

and i moved to len because i thought it was tied and marsh made a good point

If that's true, why do you have me as wolf again?

 

Why can't we both be town?

[Eldrick4221]

Changing your mind on a scum read, and therefore voting the other train makes sense. If your reason to move from me to Len was because you were convinced I was town by what Marsh said, that's an acceptable reason.

 

Going back to me being wolf because Len flipped town doesn't. Did you just disregard whatever made you changw your mind on me at the drop of a hat like that?

[Eldrick4221]

You would have to be really convinced to move to your null read to save what was very recently a scum read.

[Eldrick4221]

Yea. I'm going there instead. This simply doesn't add up.

 

If dice ends up flipping scum, I got my work ahead of me figuring out the 3rd one. I haven't really given scum!dice much thought.

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

Nini is the only one right now that I don't have a reason to suspect.

[dicetosser1]

  On 1/27/2017 at 8:53 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

Yea. I'm going there instead. This simply doesn't add up.

 

If dice ends up flipping scum, I got my work ahead of me figuring out the 3rd one. I haven't really given scum!dice much thought.

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

Nini is the only one right now that I don't have a reason to suspect.

 

and theres a good reason why i think your scum. youre talking like you dont even believe in ure vote

[Eldrick4221]

I don't really have a great reason to be suasing darthe right now. My reason for him being scum boils down to statistical probablity, and such results are assuming dice is town.

[Eldrick4221]

  On 1/27/2017 at 8:58 PM, dicetosser1 said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 8:53 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

Yea. I'm going there instead. This simply doesn't add up.If dice ends up flipping scum, I got my work ahead of me figuring out the 3rd one. I haven't really given scum!dice much thought.

[v]Dice[/v]

Nini is the only one right now that I don't have a reason to suspect.

 

 

and theres a good reason why i think your scum. youre talking like you dont even believe in ure vote

If you have good reason to think I'm scum, how did marsh convince you to change to lenlo, and why does him being town affect that change?

[Eldrick4221]

I say "if you flip scum" because I obviously don't know if you will or not.

 

I believe in my vote on you more than I do on darthe.

[Eldrick4221]

And the logistics of being right. Finding your teammate. I haven't really considered it.

[Sooh]

Vote count:

 

AJ (2): Dice, Darthe

 

Dice (1): Eldrick

 

Not voting (4): AJ, Ironeyes, Niniel, Verbal

 

 

EOD4 in: 

[Darthe]

Ok ya'll we can't be dead in the waters right now.  

[Darthe]

  On 1/27/2017 at 8:59 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

I don't really have a great reason to be suasing darthe right now. My reason for him being scum boils down to statistical probablity, and such results are assuming dice is town.

You're gonna need to pick one and stick with it.  This is tilting as all hell to deal with three times a day.

[Darthe]

  On 1/27/2017 at 7:41 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 5:08 PM, Darthe said:

 

  On 1/27/2017 at 2:28 AM, Eldrick4221 said:

with that in mind, going for darthe or marsh today for a 2/3 chance of hitting the right team.

Aaand you're back on my bad side.

That's how it goes. I listed the 3 setups that make the most sense. You and Marsh show up in 2 of the 3. You two are mathematically more likely to be scum.

 

If I pulled three things out of my ass I could make something more statistically likely too, that's all you've done.  

[Darthe]

watch,

 

eldrick/aj

 

eldrick/marsh

 

verb/eldrick

 

 

eldrick statistically confirmed wolf guiz

[Darthe]

  On 1/27/2017 at 7:44 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

Darthe's continued avoidance 9f talking about how verb would be scum if I'm town is really starting to make me think they are scum together.

I don't get what you mean.  I've explained that incessently.  You're two more stupid things away from me ignoring you this round, use them well.

[Darthe]

I'm going to drill this read into you guys now, and you will thank me after.  I've known ironeyes for almost as long as I've been around and he has, in that time, developed approximately 0% as a player.  When I speak on him you lot nod your heads yes.

 

 

  On 1/20/2017 at 8:21 PM, Ironeyes said:

Verbal is ignoring me. I answered his questions about my vote on Eldrick three pages ago and he's not acknowledging it...

Way to set up a mislynch dude

Marsh can be measured on a few factors, one of which is a favorite way to read people of mine, and I comfortably refer to as relaxation.  It is the sense that a player feels comfortable in their role and understands their path to victory.  The above post displays this, as this is a post where Marsh is agitated and out of his comfort zone, yet is not strained by being put out of position.

 

  On 1/20/2017 at 2:41 AM, Ironeyes said:

 

  On 1/20/2017 at 2:23 AM, Wildfire Sedai said:

I forgot to explain it.  I was mafia with him and notbob. I was headed for the lynch but I hadn't voted yet. It was getting close to deadline.  That's when he gave me the instructions in red above.  I didn't get lynched that day.  

 

Here it's a little different.  Ironeyes wasn't the one up for the lynch but seeing how everyone was jumping on hallia and he probably doesn't like to bus or thought it wouldn't look good for whatever reason.  Anyway I feel Darthe was probably behind it in the QT as its one of his TRICKS.

So... I'm scum because Darthe is scum because he's pulling a trick that he pulled with you when you were scum? Is that what I'm getting here? 

 

Never mind the fact that you and I have vastly different personalities and ways of approaching the game, or that I wasn't under pressure and therefore didn't need to vote Eldrick. The only reason I did was to show that I still think he's scum. 

 

The second factor is conviction.  Townies have conviction.  Wolves do not, typically, because to have conviction as a wolf you must set sub-goals for yourself.  After all, you already know who is what alignment.  The above shows conviction, in that Marsh is aware of his goal and is chasing it, and it demonstrates that that goal is to highlight when someone is saying something dumb, or in non-darthe speak, an ideology that is dangerous because it makes little sense.  

 

  On 1/20/2017 at 12:38 AM, Ironeyes said:

 

  On 1/19/2017 at 11:20 PM, Andrej said:

Ironeyes too.

Though I think maybe Hallia was cozying up to him early on but his vote from Wifi and then to Eldrick is not a good look

Yeah I know it was scummy but I didn't feel right about Hallias lynch and I didn't want to bandwagon. And I've been on the notes voting list at the end of D1 in too many of my recent games. I wanted to change that and go on record as still being suspicious of Eldrick

 

The third measure is openness.  Openness is the easiest to fake, and townies are not always open.  How then is it valid?  In a game of deception, we all naturally understand that there will be liars.  We grow accustomed to it, but we fully know that without explaining in what way, we can discern a lie from truth.  This is not a purely logical game, sometimes your gut is neccesary, and the above post reads as sincere, honest, openness.  It's in the structure, the casual tone, the minutia that we don't often spend time highlighting such as the missing period right after capitalizing a name.  

 

  On 1/18/2017 at 5:29 PM, Ironeyes said:

 

  On 1/17/2017 at 7:55 PM, Verbal32 said:

 

  On 1/17/2017 at 5:35 PM, Darthe said:

 

  On 1/17/2017 at 1:52 AM, Ironeyes said:

I really don't understand the fuss. Darthe always pulls stuff like this. It really doesn't raise his scum equity at all

Its like folks never learn. Even if I am the watcher that would be a fake claim from me.

Btw, marsh looks super relaxed.

 

 

What does that mean to you?

 

 

 

 

Work keeps interrupting, so I'm still on page 7

 

If it helps, Darthe reads me exceptionally well when I'm vanilla. It usually takes him just a few pages to figure out that I'm not stressing about how best to use my role. I'm assuming that's what "relaxed" is supposed to mean

 

You can combine these things, and get a measure of how a player usually responds.  I would call Marsh a genuinely open, low-to-moderate conviction, very relaxed guy.  If he seemed tense, or aggressive, or shut off I would quickly take something amiss about that.   

 

For the record, I do not have these for people who haven't burned me at some point.  I hardly learn your names until you're actually good or really bad at this game.  

 

But back to Marsh, I've made a point of not only quoting things that highlighted what I wanted to say, but also were good content oriented posts of his this game.  

 

  On 1/25/2017 at 10:52 PM, Ironeyes said:

Huh. Tough decision. I don't mind the Lenlo lynch but I also think Verb is scum. I'll hang around until EOD and refresh so I can break the tie if need be. Looks like it won't be necessary though. 

 

Lets see if you can follow along, class.  Nod yes.  Good.

 

Open, relaxed, not stressed about putting a lynch down in particular, but also interested in being here if he does decide he likes one or the other.  Why would a wolf ever say this and expose themselves to risk of backlash?

 

  On 1/24/2017 at 3:03 AM, Ironeyes said:

 

  On 1/24/2017 at 2:12 AM, MrsClov said:

Alright, so now for Ironeyes. In post #361 he likes Bopolis’ reads list, except he’d take Wifi from villagy and put her in null and move Hallia from null and put her in villagy,

Post #372 he responds to AJ and says that Hallia’s a gut read and that he doesn’t have anything concrete for her. He then however gives a decent stance on why he thinks Eldrick is scum.

Post #407 in response to make a lynch list. The people he would lynch as of 1/18 was Niniel, Verbal, Wildfire, Dice, Eldrick, Hallia.

#584 says he’s not sure about the Hallia lynch and votes Wifi to even the trains.
#660 he unvotes Wifi after claim and moves to Eldrick

Now if he was willing to lynch Hallia in #407, but then not sure in post #584 and then flat out votes someone who has no chance of getting lynched in #660 shouldn’t there be some kind of progression in between those hundred or so posts?

The difference is that when I made the list it was less of who i was willing to lynch than who I was not willing to lynch at the time. Later in the game as the votes piled off WiFi due to her claim, I felt that the scum were using it to create a CFD type effect and panic the town into voting someone random. I didn't see Hallia as scummy. Clearly I was wrong, but my reason for not voting her had less to do with her than it did with my unease about the circumstances of the lynch itself.

 

 

The first two lines of this marsh got a little antsy, didn't he?  but he has a reason to, and its within bounds for him.  The bold in particular shows he is right back to that sort of casual maaise where he doesn't really stress about this.  It's as if town marsh is playing unranked and wolf marsh is playing ranked.  

 

  On 1/23/2017 at 6:45 PM, Ironeyes said:

 

  On 1/23/2017 at 6:34 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

Your reasons for town reads are interesting.

Your read on MrsClov:
I don't like when people use "they are basically consensus town" as part of their read. It's lazy.

Also curious how informed that read is. You say you aren't caught up, but also use other people 's reads as reasoning (verb's in particular as the exception to the consensus)

Your read on Dice:
Your reason is you can't see him bussing like that, so he can't be scum. Care to expand on that? Is this a meta read? What did he do specifically that you say can't be from scum?

I'm not town reading MrsClov because she's consensus town. I just threw that in there to sort of say, "I shouldn't have to explain this." I've thought she was town since halfway through D1 and she hasn't changed since. 

 

Most of my reads are fairly informed. I'm only seven pages behind, out of sixty. 

 

It's partially meta, partially general knowledge. Hard bussing like that, where you vote a teammate and stay on him or her until the end, is not common, and it usually comes from the more bold players. Dice isn't particularly bold--he prefers to stay quiet until he sees something particularly scummy, then tunnel on that person. He has an established pattern of doing this, so if he were scum, he could easily tunnel on some unfortunate townie and nobody would look sideways at him for not sussing a teammate. 

 

  On 1/23/2017 at 6:36 PM, Eldrick4221 said:

I agree on the reads themselves. Your reasons are just weird.

That would be because I'm weird. I play almost entirely by feel, so when it comes time to explain my reads, I struggle to put it into words. 

 

 

So, this post has some everything.  Someone try and peel it open, that should help.  As for whether or not this is a viable way to read everyone?  of course not, I have alot of tricks.  This really sucks with people who fake tone well and with people who you don't know over at least a fair bit of time.  Until that point its just gut, and who gives a crap about carrying reads on gut?

[Darthe]

For me, that was a ton of work.  I'm likely to do another one tonight or Sunday if I'm still alive, but not right now.  

[dicetosser1]

thanks for that darthe.

[Andrej]

You went a little overboard there Darthe.