[Standard] Final Fantasy VII Mafia - Mafia Wins D4

[csarmi]

@Nyn

 

Day 1 - sheeped BFG

Day 2 - Yes it's probably as simple as that. Kat was in the PoE. Been conflicted on Cory and Sooh. When BFG moved to Kat I went there too because her vote/suspicion made Kat more likely to be a wolf. At them end of day I didn't move my vote cause I saw no reason to. Lynch was decided without me anyway. I was around. No idea what I would have done if votes were tied or more information came in. I wasn't unhappy about the Sooh lynch actually and didn't much fight it. Mostly because Cory was very convincing. I was pretty sure he would be right or he was a wolf. With the former the likelier.

[csarmi]

DM keeps eating my post from my mobile.

[csarmi]

lolDM

[csarmi]

At D3 I still thought it was going to be Kat or Liz. Then Coty blew himself up. Then I don't know if I thought anything. I remember I tried to test Kat by throwing some light suspicion on Pral (wanted to see whether she would bite and try to find a mislynch).

 

I believe she actually did think I was a wolf and that's why she went after me (aside from self-preservation) and well, she didn't bite. She didn't really fight her lynch either (surely she must have known that she would either have to get one of you Nyn/Liz change your minds or vote one of you).

 

I was okay with the Kat lynch, but not quite convinced she would flip wolf (just kind of hoping, same as with Sooh actually). I happened to be right, her being 3rd party makes much more sense on some level. I saw no need to vote as there wasn't even a countertrain. Also I felt better about all the other players. Even Liz, I actually suspected her less and less as the game went on.

 

Now I really can't read Pral and I just had other's opinions to judge him. I trust Cory's read specially now I know he was town. I also believe I have to trust Cory being able to read his neighbour.

[csarmi]

LOL I actually did vote yesterday. Irrelevant though.

[Zander?]

Vote Count

 

 

• Pral -1- Liz
  
• Liz -1- Csarmi
  

[Zander?]

i think thats right.

 

lmk if i missed something please!!!!!

[Nynaeve]

Sorry, I passed out. I'll catch up after I eat something and have some coffee.

[Nynaeve]

 

Who do you think is scum, Pral? I don't even really know your stances right now. I recall you saying you thought it was likely salami was town the previous phase. And that's about it.

I don't see csarmi being scum at all. Between you and liz, I am town reading you better. Pure PoE says Liz is scum, her voting early today supports that feeling

 

 

Why does voting early support that?  If anything, I think scum would want to hold back and get a feel for the thread before a push.

[Lizabeth]

 

I voted early on Sooh and Kat too.

 

explain how Nyn and I are more likely scum than Csarmi based on voting history.

That's exactly the issue I have in your play. Specially in this game, I don't see how you can be sure of anyone's alignment to vote early and stick to it. Cory was pretty much confused between sooh and kat. I was dithering between Cory and kat. And, nearly everyone else. You being sure of alignment each day - sooh, kat and me today - doesn't look townish.

 

Okay, let me explain my play to you then.

 

When I vote early, it doesn't mean I'm sure. It means that I want to see what comes out of my vote.

 

With Darthe, I voted early. Took forever for him to actually respond to things that I was asking him. Once he started responding, I started seeing him as being more likely (unreasonably) irritated town than evasive scum. So I moved my vote away from him.

 

With Sooh it was the same thing (sort of). She was actually the last person out of my top 3 scum alive, so I started with her. I moved to Csarmi when nothing else was building and Cory moved off her wagon, but I moved back to her after Csarmi started posting and was looking better. When she started posting she didn't look any better, and BFG, Cory, and Nyn all presented arguments against her that I agreed with, so I stuck to her. And we were right.

 

With Kat, it was pretty much the same thing.

 

And the same with you. I don't know your alignment, but I know that on my iso of you, there are certain things that stood out to me.

 

1. You counter-voted Cory after he voted for you. You stuck to your guns against opposition, which was a good look. But then it seemed that as soon as Cory's suspicion was off of you, you disappeared and never came back. I know it was a holiday weekend for you, so I was willing to cut you some slack at the time, but it's something that bothered me just a little bit.

 

2. When you unvoted Cory later on, you felt the need to give two reasons. That his wagon wasn't giving any traction AND because he was looking better to you. If he was looking better and you thought he was town, why would others not voting for him matter? Would you have stuck to your vote on him even though he looked better if others were willing to vote too?

 

Those were the little things that wouldn't have meant anything on their own.

 

But then there was the fact that I was having a hard time (before isoing you) distinguishing between you and Csarmi. It seemed like you had done pretty much the same things for most of the game in terms of arguments and actions. But when I went back through your iso I realized that it wasn't so much him following you as you following him.

 

Nyn already outlined everything with the voting patterns, especially with Kat, but for me it's the fact that you seized on his argument for why Sooh couldn't possibly be scum with her "progression" on Darthe. He made it first. You followed. And it's not just that he said it first, but it's that he actually seems to believe it.

 

Then when I was looking at your POEs at the end of the day yesterday, I noticed that although Csarmi kept me in his POE far longer than I thought was reasonable (yes, I know my alignment, he doesn't, but I still think it's ridiculous to argue that Sooh can't be a wolf because of "progression" on Darthe but I can be a wolf when Sooh was trying to shade me all D1 and D2 and I was trying to kill her all D2). At the end he came to a solid conclusion on me that put me ahead of you. And yes, I know my perspective is biased, but his conclusion makes sense based on what happened in the thread. Nyn, BFG, even Cory on D2 recognized it and not even Kat was brazen enough to try to push a different conclusion more than one shading attempt.

 

But with you, you landed on the conclusion that I was more likely to be scum than Csarmi. Not based on any laid out analysis of anything that happened in the thread. But basically because it was convenient.

 

And even now when i accuse you of being mafia, you don't ask me for the reasons why. You just counter-accuse me back. So I'm interested in seeing if you actually tried to cobble together more of coherent argument. And I'll see whether or not Csarmi looks either better or worse. But right now, you're the prime suspect and you're not looking so good....

[Lizabeth]

And, I talked about why I find csarmi townier. I don't see scum hard town reading each other early in the game. In a 2 player scum game, distancing is the smarter way to go

In a two-scum game busing your team mate on D2 is the way to go?

 

Your logic is inconsistent.

[Nynaeve]

I also think it's time for everyone to claim roles here.

 

VT  \m/

[Lizabeth]

Liz can you talk to us about that neighbour QT?

It was miserable, in case you can't tell. Cory and I don't get along very well and unfortunately it spilled out into the thread. There wasn't a whole lot of collaboration going on. But what I posted about my thoughts on Sooh on D2 were basically what I had shared with Cory in the QT

 

 

Okay.

 

So if Nyn is a wolf here she can have the win as far as I'm concerned. She has been uniformly townread the whole game and for good reasons. Also she'd never hold her shot here, she wouldn't go down in any threesome.

 

 I agree.

 

 

@Sooh, why are you ignoring me? :(

 

@Cory, I'm going to try to say this as politely as I can, knowing that you and I are not the best of neighbours and things tend to flame out unnecessarily when we talk (which is why, quite frankly, I'm trying to engage you as little as possible at the moment).

 

In a world where Sooh and I are not scummmates, what do you see? If I'm scum and Sooh's not, who would be my team mate? If Sooh's scum and I'm not, who would be her team mate?

 

BTW

 

Yes, that was the hint.  

 

anyway

 

[v]Liz[/v]

 

Based on what?

 

And if you think I'm more likely wolf than Pral now, what made you think the opposite yesterday?

 

 

 

Who do you think is scum, Pral? I don't even really know your stances right now. I recall you saying you thought it was likely salami was town the previous phase. And that's about it.

I don't see csarmi being scum at all. Between you and liz, I am town reading you better. Pure PoE says Liz is scum, her voting early today supports that feeling

 

 

Why does voting early support that?  If anything, I think scum would want to hold back and get a feel for the thread before a push.

 

Exactly

 

Both Csarmi and Parl are making the same illogical argument - I just feel like Csarmi is the one who is more likely to believe it.

 

Csarmi and Pral, I'd like you each to read through the argument Nyn made on all 3 of us and explain point by point where you disagree.

[Lizabeth]

 

I also think it's time for everyone to claim roles here.

 

VT  \m/

 

Okay....so then scum really did have a second kill....

 

Which makes me go >.> at Pral all over again for suggesting it in the first place.

 

I've never seen Chris make a game where scum gets two kills in one night...he usually uses one-shot modifiers. Are you aware of any exceptions at DM?

[Lizabeth]

But I don't see why Scum kills alanna given she was the second wagon and totally lynchable...

[Lizabeth]

But that also means that scum purposely withheld a kill. And at first that confused me, because why prolong achieving your wincon, but then I realized that F4 is essentially the same as F3 except that there are 3 potential mislynchees rather than 2.

 

 

Which makes me wonder more...but meh. Let's see what Pral and Csarmi have to say first

[Nynaeve]

And, I talked about why I find csarmi townier. I don't see scum hard town reading each other early in the game. In a 2 player scum game, distancing is the smarter way to go

 

I think it would be fair to say that over half of Sooh's content is arguing with Liz and nudging her. Do you honestly think they'd do that as scummates? that she would hyper focus on her scummate like that instead of trying to drive mislynches?  I find it VERY unlikely.

[Nynaeve]

I think Salami broke some new record with double posting >.>

[Lizabeth]

lol

 

Yeah I was confused at first - never seen that many post stutters :D

 

I'm going through some of Csarmi's old games - currently on Poker Night. Would you say that his playstyle changes significantly from game to game?

 

I already read parts of Pirates of the Caribbean for Pral. I can't find the ones he has listed in his spoiler though.

[Nynaeve]

Okay....so then scum really did have a second kill....

Which makes me go >.> at Pral all over again for suggesting it in the first place.

 

I've never seen Chris make a game where scum gets two kills in one night...he usually uses one-shot modifiers. Are you aware of any exceptions at DM?

 

 

Modifier?

[Lizabeth]

Also @Nyn (and @Pral if you feel so inclined), how likely is it that Csarmi would be posting this high volume as scum? The game I'm reading through he only has about 60 posts and he was alive to the end of the game.

[Lizabeth]

 

Okay....so then scum really did have a second kill....

 

Which makes me go >.> at Pral all over again for suggesting it in the first place.

 

I've never seen Chris make a game where scum gets two kills in one night...he usually uses one-shot modifiers. Are you aware of any exceptions at DM?

 

Modifier?

 

Yeah, like one-shot strong man or one-shot ninja. The faction still only gets one kill, but the person with the one-shot role has to perform it for the shot to be modified.

[Nynaeve]

But I don't see why Scum kills alanna given she was the second wagon and totally lynchable...

 

Agreed. I probably wouldn't have let it go :/     Maybe PR hunting?

[Lizabeth]

Pral, what is your role. This is important.

 

This is the last day - there is no N4.

[Lizabeth]

 

But I don't see why Scum kills alanna given she was the second wagon and totally lynchable...

 

Agreed. I probably wouldn't have let it go :/     Maybe PR hunting?

 

Yeah, that's what I was thinking.