[Basic] Pirates of the Caribbean (Curse of the Black Pearl) Game Thread - D2

[Pralaya]

2 pages of mathematical discussion in a mafia game? Well, now I have played it all. .

[Pralaya]

Anyone wants to come with to Tortuga?  I'll make it a fun trip, promise.

Yes, would like some pi.

[Darthe]

2 pages of mathematical discussion in a mafia game? Well, now I have played it all. .

You never played with wombat and I did you?

[monstrman]

There are 1714 permutations of 3 man teams out of a 13 player game

 

There are 1320 permutations of 3 man teams possible for every living villager based off of rand alone

 

CLEARING THREE VILLAGERS AFTER THAT gives you 504 permutations of wolfteams and in effect a 1/504 or .001984(numbers forever) chance of picking the correct permutation of wolf reads

 

Now let's say you even get one wolf right out of the three you now have a 1/56 chance of getting the other two reads correct which is 1.7%

 

Regardless of my alignment, regardless of your experience with how wolves play together, naming teams is correct less than a percent of the time

 

Sorry for flooding the thread with math it's just important to be correct *nods*

[monstrman]

It's also predicated on being correct on one read

 

And if you're off on that one read nothing about your team reads matter anymore

[monstrman]

[V]sooh [/v]

[Guest]

Nego is trying and he said he'd do more today so maybe nego try isoing those people and let me know what reads you come up with and I'll do the same

 

I'll do my best on wednesday. i'm busy with real life before then. but i'll try to say something smart today and tomorrow as well

[monstrman]

 

Nego is trying and he said he'd do more today so maybe nego try isoing those people and let me know what reads you come up with and I'll do the same

 

something smart today and tomorrow as well

Nego delivering on his promises already

 

I have yet to do so but will once I get home

 

Then let's bounce ideas off each other if you're a villager because I want to win

[monstrman]

For those who might not understand my humor:

 

That first sentece was a joke

[Darthe]

[V]sooh [/v]

Why sooh over believer for you?

[Guest]

 

This is the last vote count of D1.

 

 

 

D1 FINAL VOTE COUNT:

 

Zander (5): Calder, Sooh, Tiinker, Darthe, monstr

Calder (4): Besie, Zander, Pral, dice

Nolder (1): Believer

dice (1): Nego

 

Not voting cause all the rum is gone (2): Hellian, Nolder

 

 

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

 

Looking at that vote count, I agree with what manbat said. Definitely scum in zander and calder trains. Given that it was a v/v train, the scum would also not be too much bothered EoD and would have just let the lynch pass in whichever direction it went. (Unless of course, if there was a hint that Calder was a PR and tried to capitalise on the opportunity).

 

Given that premise, I would say there is scum most likely in sooh/tinker/besie. As said before, Darthe cannot be scum based on Calder's flip and how the EoD went. Manbat very unlikely to be.

 

Dice, I am not sure - he did end up voting Calder at the EoD and tried to push the lynch to Nolder. But, would a scum be willing to take that risk on a v/v lynch?

 

I would bet my whole money that there is scum in the other group who were never involved in this. Kind of staying out of the trouble and let the villagers fight it out. Nego/BEliever/Hellian/Nolder.

 

Nolder claimed tracker. Nego, I don't think is wolf based on above.

 

If there is scum there and I believe there is, it would be between wifi/Believer.

 

 

I was going to ask based on the votes if sooh/tiink/besie would make sense as a team but dunno. I can see one of Sooh/Besie being scum, most likely Besie. Tiink I haven't much idea on.

 

I think you town are Wildfire/Monster/Pral (forgot to mention this earlier but I liked your D1 even though I kept forgetting you were playing)/Nolder (because of the claim). I want to say Believer is town but he's trending down right now, Dice is still a questionmark no matter the claim.

 

 

Actually, meh, there was a wildfire post i felt was forced. Dunno about her anymore.

 

[Guest]

I'm pretty sure of town on monstr, dice, myself, nol unlesss he gets ccd, and tbh this last string makes besie look derp town. Also nego, he was really clean eod and beyond.

 

Need to work on laya believe and wild. I prob would say we have two wolves there and someone is fooling me

 

Eh.

[Guest]

 

Not lynching Monstr or Wildfire. Sooh is within my town reads as well.

Curious as to why not Wildfire. People who haven't played with her before tend to want to lynch her all the time. Why not you?

 

 

I liked her posts from N1. Dunno how I feel about her posts from D2 though.

[Nynaeve]

Savvy Vote Count

 

Believer (1): Darthe

Darthe (1): Believer

Sooh (1): manbat

 

Waiting for the opportune moment (8): The rest of you lot.

 

 

With 11 players alive, it take 6 to lynch.

[monstrman]

A note due to error in math*

 

The number of permutations in my post is not accurate because it does not account for repeating permutations. I did the that that does account for it and it's not too much different

 

.001% at random, 1.5% if you have one correct wolf named

 

It's not an accurate way to make reads

[monstrman]

I have Sooh and believer around the same, darthe

[Darthe]

Walk me through sooh, I'm not there.

[Guest]

A note due to error in math*

 

The number of permutations in my post is not accurate because it does not account for repeating permutations. I did the that that does account for it and it's not too much different

 

.001% at random, 1.5% if you have one correct wolf named

 

It's not an accurate way to make reads

 

you should ask the mods if you can edit the post

[monstrman]

Walk me through sooh, I'm not there.

It's partly a "a lot of other people have something going for them"

[Darthe]

So she is null in a sea of townies

[Katiora]

Gah... what have I done..... So, someone tell me, do I really need to read all 83 pages?? cliff notes anyone?? lol *sighs* 

[Darthe]

Probably ned to read at least EoD onwards.

[Katiora]

Probably ned to read at least EoD onwards.

Might can do that. Thanks. 

[Pralaya]

 

2 pages of mathematical discussion in a mafia game? Well, now I have played it all. .

You never played with wombat and I did you?

 

Let's just say it never was quite like this.

[Pralaya]

Where is tinker btw? Last I heard he said he is going to post more.