[Advanced]Lost mafia - Game over - Sili, SK wins!

[Turin Turambar]

 

Because it was irrelevant. It was the initial post that is damning. Think back to the Eldrick voting Thane and then Turin back when Eld and Thane were mafia together. That is what it means to slip. Just because she (and he did as well) went back and caught it does not erase the first post.

I am more inclined to correct statements like that as a villager for a number of reasons. Whether they apply to Besie depends on how her mind ticks, but I think it's absolutely relevant to a degree.

when it is a true slip I don't think so. It is the subconscious connection that creates it and then it is there. Correcting afterwards doesn't erase the initial statement.

 

There is no undo button.

 

At least that is my opinion. You can mitigate by making other actions that might override but I don't think Bes has done that. Again my opinion. I made my case. Agree and lynch her or not at your choice.

[Sili Quirrels]

This is such a clown show. I'm going to have to lower darthe into my want to lynch if Zander was like this and Darthe still said Zander is just biased.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

 

Bes early game

 

 

This only my 4th game....

Noob card application???

Besie is this the 5th game in a row? or can we count on you?

maybe not as it was in response to Seph.

Guys, I want to say this now, and I'll try not to repeat it. I can only play a few hours a day. I'm a busy lady.

 

Fair enough and yet she has a lot of d1 posts.

 

 

Bessie, if you actually randed town you would tell us, right?

I'd give you the same answer I would as wolf, yes.

Which is also the answer I gave you when we first played together.

This is what you said as a wolf last game :( now I'm worried...

Also besie no worries about how long you can play,I think that is plenty of time to be honest. If you are town, just find us some scum and all will be well.

This is the "are you town?" situation. It does seem like it is needlessly mysterious. Like she is afraid to even say she is town. I din't think much about it at first because I was thinking more about Shad and his early Eldrick vote. Looking again it is weird.

 

There is a lot of reaching here imo.

There probably is. He is tunneling. He also makes some good points if you are paying attention.

 

If your only job in life is to protect besie please get another one.

Unnecessary, honey. Don't make it personal.

 

It's all game related, I swear.

[Darthe]

also fyi. I think the mafia team is turin/dice/z2

 

 

shad stay around and chat with me

Dice has good potential to be a wolf. I keep forgetting he is in this game and thats his major wolf tell of old. He has been putting a lot more effort into towning the past year or so

[Darthe]

 

Z, do you think I'm mafia? If so vote me and be prepared to justify it WHEN I flip townie.

 

Do you think it means anything that Bes asked everyone how their reads would change IF she flipped town? Like it was a rhetorical question.

I wrote "IF" on purpose. It's the kind of thing I'd focus on if I was wolf.

Eww

[Guest]

It's interesting how people seem to want to lynch the people who were most recently active and talking and such. Is it because these people are usually the ones that were perceived as scummy and who are trying to defend themselves? Probably. Is it the people that are scum? Not always. Mmmm.

[Sili Quirrels]

ditto about dice.

[Guest]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bes early game

 

 

This only my 4th game....

Noob card application???

Besie is this the 5th game in a row? or can we count on you?

maybe not as it was in response to Seph.

Guys, I want to say this now, and I'll try not to repeat it. I can only play a few hours a day. I'm a busy lady.

 

Fair enough and yet she has a lot of d1 posts.

 

 

Bessie, if you actually randed town you would tell us, right?

I'd give you the same answer I would as wolf, yes.

Which is also the answer I gave you when we first played together.

This is what you said as a wolf last game :( now I'm worried...

Also besie no worries about how long you can play,I think that is plenty of time to be honest. If you are town, just find us some scum and all will be well.

This is the "are you town?" situation. It does seem like it is needlessly mysterious. Like she is afraid to even say she is town. I din't think much about it at first because I was thinking more about Shad and his early Eldrick vote. Looking again it is weird.

There is a lot of reaching here imo.

There probably is. He is tunneling. He also makes some good points if you are paying attention.

 

If your only job in life is to protect besie please get another one.

 

Unnecessary, honey. Don't make it personal.

It's all game related, I swear.

<3

[Turin Turambar]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lol Len

 

I'm leaving it to 50/50. I am for both Hallia and Kivam, so let's see.

Yeah I know. What happened to trusting your town core Bess? I thought 6 voices were better then 1? I thought you were bringing them togther to FIGHT THE RANDOM

Lol Len. I don't see what your problem is, honey. It was an idea that you obviously hated. Only 3 towns actually went for the plan.

... okay 3 people that I hope is town.

 

 

 

Lol Len

 

I'm leaving it to 50/50. I am for both Hallia and Kivam, so let's see.

Yeah I know. What happened to trusting your town core Bess? I thought 6 voices were better then 1? I thought you were bringing them togther to FIGHT THE RANDOM

Lol Len. I don't see what your problem is, honey. It was an idea that you obviously hated. Only 3 towns actually went for the plan.

After day ended but before hallia flipped.

 

Wanna reconsider???

 

No not really.

 

Why didnt you quote her follow up.

Because it was irrelevant. It was the initial post that is damning. Think back to the Eldrick voting Thane and then Turin back when Eld and Thane were mafia together. That is what it means to slip. Just because she (and he did as well) went back and caught it does not erase the first post.

I disagree that it was irrelevant.

 

And Besie is not Eldrick so that also makes no sense.

 

I think youre looking for things to solidify your read Scum read on her but leaving other important parts out and thats a bad look imo.

I'm being transparent in my thought process. If you disagree fair enough. I frankly don't think anything other than my flipping dead cop would convince you tbh.

 

 

No, I am not claiming cop.

[Zander?]

I have a similar mafia team. Let's hope the masons are town.

 

 

Yes. Hoping that is the case. I think that one good point in their favour is that Thane seems to have been ready to basically ride the claim. Like he knew it was in their back pocket. 

 

Also I think it would be risky to claim D1 under heat as their could have been a "real" set of masons to cc and that would have been suicide.

 

Plus the breadcrumbing.

 

 

*fingers crossed there

 

I have a hard time believing they arent Town here.

[seph]

adding on to my previous vote.

Dice only wants me lynched is my point from above...
At eod I try very hard to move votes off of kivam, and surprise one of the few people who try to follow me is dice. Why would you ever follow your top scum read? it reminds me when darthe had a cfd on leelou as the godfather with minutes left at eod.


So from what I saw from dice's iso on d1, He sussed nyn and besie, calls me scum and his only vote he wants to make is me.
d2. He starts out with a post calling me scum again, He susses turin saying he could possibly vote there (which to me looked like a fail safe) HE doesn't want to vote there but if he has to he is trying to not make it look suspicious with that post.

and then later on today we have A post saying he does not want to lynch besie with absolute no progression from d1



so I think it would actually be dice/z.2   besie/turin I need to re read these two before I try and determine

[v] dice [/v] but for now I would like to see where this goes

[Sili Quirrels]

It's interesting how people seem to want to lynch the people who were most recently active and talking and such. Is it because these people are usually the ones that were perceived as scummy and who are trying to defend themselves? Probably. Is it the people that are scum? Not always. Mmmm.

 

Hm?

 

I wanted to lynch you ever since I heard that you made day 1 an rng between two players. I wanted to lynch you when you weren't posting. I want to lynch you now because your posts were meh.

[seph]

ebwody my previous post

[Guest]

Thanks Sili <3 I'm a total Wolf because my posts are so meh.

[Turin Turambar]

 

 

 

 

Okaaaaayyyyy peeps! So everybody's votes were just scattered everywhere.

 

 

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Eldrick (1) - Shad

Thane (1) - Turin

Seph (2) - Thane, Dice

Hallia (1) - Kivam

Celeste (2) - Lenlo, Nyn

Darthe (1) - Eldrick

Turin (1) - Celeste

Dice (1) - Seph

Kivam (1) - Sili

Not voting (4): Darthe, Hallia, Zander, Besie

With 15 alive there are 8 to lynch!

Came up with a plan to find the one (or more) person that at least most people can agree on lynching.

The idea is this: if more than 5 people think a single person is scummy, and thus lynchable, these 5 are (1) not all wolves, they (2) all have their own reasons for thinking as such, and (3) if a scum member was bussing or covering, then they just doomed their own teammate.

Okay, #3 is maybe closer to hopeful thinking and might be what they want. But #1 and #2 is true. And if #2 is true, then that person, by general consensus, is the most scummy.

I'm going to vote that person, because that person is the person that the town, in general (with #1 and #2 in mind) agree on.

On page (p) 41, I asked everyone for at least 3 of their top wtl. This is the outcome:

Besie - p41 - Shad, Hallia, Turin, Darthe

Sili - p41- Seph, Shad, Kivam

Lenlo - p41 - NO - p42 Seph, Celeste

Celeste - p41 - Turin, Sili

Zander - p42 - Thane, Shad, Kivam, Darthe

Hallia - p44 - Besie, Kivam, Thane, Celeste

Shad - p45 - Hallia, Kivam

Seph - p45,46 - Dice, Hallia, Sili, Kivam, Celeste , Nyn, Turin, Darthe

Dice - p46,47 - Seph, Nyn

Nyn - p48 - Celeste, Darthe, Turin

Turin - p50 - ????, Thane (voted)

Thane - ????

Darthe - ????

Kivam - ????

Eldrick - ????

When each person is then sorted according to how many people is wtl him/her, the list is as follows:

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

So, [v]Kivam [/v]

Something that looks odd to me is that with the same number of votes at 4 and 3 the people I have as town (myself and shad) were listed at the top and the people I find as suspects (Celeste, Darthe {New} Seph) were listed under. there may be some innocent reason for this but it looks sketchy to me.

 

found some other funny things in the search but that will wait for the morning. I actually searched on mobile.

Are you saying Besie looks sketchy cause she tabulated everyone's WTL.....cause unless youre claiming her math is wrong, this is awful.

I am NOT saying that her math is wrong. I am saying that she framed the results in a manner to cast more doubt on townies than on people that I have found suspect during the course of the game. Kiv was town. I know I;m town (I understand this is my PoV and you may not be able to see that for whatever reason). Celeste has been a question mark to me. Darthe has been a bit weird but I am sort of waiting to see what happens by end of day. I am saying that the people I think are townies are getting put nearer the top of the list to make it look like they are worse than the ones below. It is a psychological thing IMO. Start at tht top of the list and work your way down. The pattern repeats going down the list as Shad (claimed mason) and Hallia (dead townie) are both above Seph.

 

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

also think turin is saying her math is swrong and that's why and yeah that much is sketchy lol.

See above.

This is awful.

 

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

 

Youre reaching here badly.

 

Likely vote on you coming after I catch up.

A computer didn't generate that list, she did. Therefore the formatting and which names went where within the same cote blocks was entirely up to her. I am saying that IMO it looks like the people that are either confirmed town or are people I am town reading were put at the top of each strata. You think it means nothing. I think it means something.

 

Place your vote if you feel like it.

[Guest]

ebwody my previous post

What is ebwody?

[Sili Quirrels]

Thanks Sili <3 I'm a total Wolf because my posts are so meh.

That I'm not sure about, but at the very least meh posts don't inspire confidence in you being town.

[Sili Quirrels]

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

 

Youre reaching here badly.

 

I think you missed .

[Guest]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Okaaaaayyyyy peeps! So everybody's votes were just scattered everywhere.

 

 

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Eldrick (1) - Shad

Thane (1) - Turin

Seph (2) - Thane, Dice

Hallia (1) - Kivam

Celeste (2) - Lenlo, Nyn

Darthe (1) - Eldrick

Turin (1) - Celeste

Dice (1) - Seph

Kivam (1) - Sili

Not voting (4): Darthe, Hallia, Zander, Besie

With 15 alive there are 8 to lynch!

Came up with a plan to find the one (or more) person that at least most people can agree on lynching.

The idea is this: if more than 5 people think a single person is scummy, and thus lynchable, these 5 are (1) not all wolves, they (2) all have their own reasons for thinking as such, and (3) if a scum member was bussing or covering, then they just doomed their own teammate.

Okay, #3 is maybe closer to hopeful thinking and might be what they want. But #1 and #2 is true. And if #2 is true, then that person, by general consensus, is the most scummy.

I'm going to vote that person, because that person is the person that the town, in general (with #1 and #2 in mind) agree on.

On page (p) 41, I asked everyone for at least 3 of their top wtl. This is the outcome:

Besie - p41 - Shad, Hallia, Turin, Darthe

Sili - p41- Seph, Shad, Kivam

Lenlo - p41 - NO - p42 Seph, Celeste

Celeste - p41 - Turin, Sili

Zander - p42 - Thane, Shad, Kivam, Darthe

Hallia - p44 - Besie, Kivam, Thane, Celeste

Shad - p45 - Hallia, Kivam

Seph - p45,46 - Dice, Hallia, Sili, Kivam, Celeste , Nyn, Turin, Darthe

Dice - p46,47 - Seph, Nyn

Nyn - p48 - Celeste, Darthe, Turin

Turin - p50 - ????, Thane (voted)

Thane - ????

Darthe - ????

Kivam - ????

Eldrick - ????

When each person is then sorted according to how many people is wtl him/her, the list is as follows:

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

So, [v]Kivam [/v]

Something that looks odd to me is that with the same number of votes at 4 and 3 the people I have as town (myself and shad) were listed at the top and the people I find as suspects (Celeste, Darthe {New} Seph) were listed under. there may be some innocent reason for this but it looks sketchy to me.

 

found some other funny things in the search but that will wait for the morning. I actually searched on mobile.

Are you saying Besie looks sketchy cause she tabulated everyone's WTL.....cause unless youre claiming her math is wrong, this is awful.

I am NOT saying that her math is wrong. I am saying that she framed the results in a manner to cast more doubt on townies than on people that I have found suspect during the course of the game. Kiv was town. I know I;m town (I understand this is my PoV and you may not be able to see that for whatever reason). Celeste has been a question mark to me. Darthe has been a bit weird but I am sort of waiting to see what happens by end of day. I am saying that the people I think are townies are getting put nearer the top of the list to make it look like they are worse than the ones below. It is a psychological thing IMO. Start at tht top of the list and work your way down. The pattern repeats going down the list as Shad (claimed mason) and Hallia (dead townie) are both above Seph.

 

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

also think turin is saying her math is swrong and that's why and yeah that much is sketchy lol.

See above.

This is awful.

 

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

 

Youre reaching here badly.

 

Likely vote on you coming after I catch up.

 

A computer didn't generate that list, she did. Therefore the formatting and which names went where within the same cote blocks was entirely up to her. I am saying that IMO it looks like the people that are either confirmed town or are people I am town reading were put at the top of each strata. You think it means nothing. I think it means something.

 

Place your vote if you feel like it.

Lol... I generated it from wtl lists. I even added page numbers of where each person gave their wtl list. Lol. Why would I edit and fake the list and then still give reliable information so that you can check up on me if you wanted to?

[Zander?]

 

 

 

 

I think Kivam might have been killed because of his claim. Zander is the kill I don't understand.

Can you explain?

 

I think with Hallia flipping her role that Kivam is basically cleared going into D2.

 

I don't follow this at all.

 

How does Hally flipping VT make Kivam also VT?

 

As I said before to Besie, it's the easiest friggin role to fake claim. Just because Hally was telling the truth, doesn't mean Kivam was.

 

He was, but that's a silly reason to think he got killed for it.

 

It's just that it's more likely to be true. It's something I see happening.

 

 

This still makes 0 sense to me.

[Guest]

 

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

 

Youre reaching here badly.

 

I think you missed .

True. Thane, Darthe, Kivam and Eldrick didn't give their wtl's. As seen in the post. I remember Thane saying he was going to miss DL. I think one of the other 3 said it too.

[Sili Quirrels]

a 3-3 tie at eod in a 15 player game with many votes spread out across 8 or so players only happens if the two wagons are both mafia or both town.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

 

Youre reaching here badly.

I think you missed .

True. Thane, Darthe, Kivam and Eldrick didn't give their wtl's. As seen in the post. I remember Thane saying he was going to miss DL. I think one of the other 3 said it too.

 

..

 

No I mean you certainly did control the order the names were posted in in a narrow way. Now I was the first to say it was reaching and weak but afaict you did control the order of the names in such a way as turin describes.

[Guest]

Turns out, they were both town.

[Zander?]

 

 

 

 

Celeste could you make some sort of chart that shows how your logic progresses? Dead serious btw, I wanna see you work out your math apl the way through at least once.

I look for fake tone mostly and patterns that don't add up with someone's previous game. That shows if they come from a town or scum mindset. That's why when new people play i'm like in the background or people I don't know how to read well. I have said this in previous games Darthe. It's why i'm pushing Turin because I don't think he's town.

This reads to me as you stating that you guess in a convoluted way. Youre expecting people to be static and consistent and youre grasping for whatever you find that looks different based on a couple of games worth of interaction. Thats not being said to judge, but rather to point out that it's maybe not a strong process.

Yet it is because I have in most of games spotted out the whole mafia team. Why did you bring this up?

Youve spotted whole teams by sussing evry player at some point. Thats not a skill Celeste, ive been there.

 

 

lololololololol