[Standard] The Matrix Reloaded - Game Over

[Cory Caboose]

It's not even worth considering because I think we always lose and I'm eliminating all scenarios besides ones where we can win 

[Cory Caboose]

Thane... did you soft something earlier?

Reading and saw something I didn't see before

LMK

[Thane Vakarian]

i did soft.... no need to get hard yet

[Cory Caboose]

Okay. Understood.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 3:09 PM, cory caboose said:

Tab was probably always getting lynched at some point

 

RTE was probably getting lynched too, so barring a CC getting him out of the PoE is huge

Agreed on both counts. If RTE goes uncced then this game got easier.

[Zander?]

  On 11/8/2015 at 9:18 AM, Shad_ said:

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 7:58 AM, Sili Quirrels said:

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 7:58 AM, Shad_ said:

I don't think there is necessarily scum between Thane and Hallia, just that they can't be w/w.

 

But I would lynch Hallia between the two of them if it came to that without much hesitation.

then you must think cory or yates are scum?

 

That's kind of a leap.

 

Here's my look at it:

 

Yates is entirely capable of replicating his tone as scum, and I have seen him gamble on his reputation as a good player. He's the sort of player who would do things like defend a fairly outed team mate to buy an extra mislynch, banking on a fallback to 'Yates is too good to do anything that blatant. Everyone makes a bad read once in a while'. I don't know if that's his norm, but it was how he approached the one game I saw him as scum in. Unfortunately, that leaves me in the awkward position of instinctively sussing him any time he's wrong in a big way or does something eccentric. Between supporting Lenlo and tossing out his reads for Clov's, I got it pretty well locked in my head that he's scum and it's a feeling I really doubt I'm going to be able to shake.

 

I've played a lot of games with Thane now and he's never shown quite the same face in any of them, but there was a sort of apathy I saw in my one game with him as scum that just is not present here, at all. He's a highly meta-based read and I only have one game of scum meta to go on, so it's a little bit of a gamble on my end to say that Thane is always going to slug along and play like he just wants to get the game over with and move on when he rands scum. I have no idea what a scum!Thane who actually wants to win looks like. But there are other things with him. There is a consistency to how he reacts to certain situations as town, and he's maintained that consistency in this game. So I'm basing my town read on the idea that 1) scum!Thane is less likely to possess the will to try this hard and 2) scum!Thane won't be able to replicate his behavior this well.

 

Hallia is a really flaky gut read for me. I've seen her play strong town games but not often. Her weak town games and her scum games are pretty similar. It leaves me instinctively hesitant to lynch her because I feel like it's a 1/4 shot half the time. It also leaves me looking for telltale signs of towniness and weighing them stronger than I really should, for as easily as they can be replicated. Like when I thought her Pral vote was townish for her--how easy is it for someone to remember they're scum reading Cory and toss in a quick preface of "I feel better about Cory" to avoid inconsistency? Anyone can do that. I weigh it too heavily in her favor. Ultimately, she should probably be lynched for the simple fact that Lenlo was scum and she dropped that early hammer on Sooh. Hallia doesn't play a deep game as scum and that sort of move is not twtbaw for her imo--though I've always outed her for bad bussing, not bad protecting. My gut says maybe town but it's a garbage read--especially considering I had a similar feeling about her last game until her bad hammer on her scum mate D1.

 

Tab did a lot of things to try and derail Lenlo's lynch and her reasons were terrible. The conspiracy theory she concocted for voting Sooh over Lenlo was a really big stretch, and she followed it up with two totally contradictory posts. When it looked like Lenlo was guaranteed to be the D3 lynch, she treated it as though it was a known fact that he was scum. Then, at a point when it looked like he might not go down D3 after all, she flipped back to not wanting to lynch him based on Thane's argument that the speed with which he was getting strung up felt slimy. I don't even know how to put the necessary amount of insanity this process takes to be town concisely: D2 she thinks Thane and Lenlo are scum, but because Thane doesn't vote Lenlo she votes with Thane on Sooh under the assumption that Thane will always bus. When that theory falls through, she says Lenlo has to be scum. Then when Thane tries to stop the Lenlo lynch D3, she says he has a good point and rolls with him. Tab has no actual read on Thane. There's no way around this. No town player would ever forget to consider the possibility that their top two scum reads could be team mates. Especially no town player who is thinking deep enough to concoct the D2 theory. My only hesitance irt Tab is that I have zero experience with her, but if she's town it's beyond twtbaw. It would be the most illogical honest thought process I have ever seen in this game. We can't not lynch that and there is no excuse to not string her up tomorrow.

 

With RTE, I'm banking a lot on Cory tbh. I am accepting that he is town and therefor that his read on BFG is well informed. I am also taking the hard statistics he threw out into consideration. I hated that BFG waited until after a town player was mislynched to pop in and say she's have voted the scum player. I once lynched Sooh for doing pretty much the exact same thing, and I was right. I also felt she might have sheeped Clov's leading question at Sooh early D2, because it was a question very few people would think to ask. I also hated how RTE tried to brush off Lenlo's lynch as an "info" lynch. I would call it a blatant lie had he not just subbed into the game.

 

Dice is always a non-conventional read but he's done the things that I expect him to do as town and I don't want to get into it. Cory has been reading him town too, and I'm trusting Cory. I could go back and see what Clov thought about him. Maybe I will later if it comes to that. But ultimately I just have to trust myself on Dice and until I'm wrong I'm probably right. I misread him our first game together because Dice is Dice. I've been right ever since, and I've probably read his scum game in Harry Potter (or was it British Monarchy) like six times at this point in my mafia career.

 

Everyone else convinced me that they were town a long time ago. Yes yes, anyone could be scum, but this is how I roll with clears: if you've done enough that I won't feel embarrassed if I lose to you, then I don't mind locking you in at this point in the game. You can always still blow it, but you have to really blow it.

 

Bottom line:

 

Tab is obvious scum.

RTE is probably scum.

Final one is probably between Hallia and Yates.

 

Don't exit that pool until those four are resolved by death or a peek imo. Probably wouldn't even go outside of that based on a town peek unless we've caught the Godfather.

 

Thane and Dice are very long shots and I think they're town.

Cory and Sili are extremely long shots and I think they're town.

If Zander is scum lololol holy crap you were amazing bro.

 

 

Blue- Good

Red- Bad

 

Disagree on Dice read but will consider the assessment

 

RTE- unless CC'd im gonna role with his claim but not fully believing it yet.

 

 

WTL-

 

Hallia

 

Dice

Yates

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 3:17 PM, cory caboose said:

Lenlo's response to Sili doesn't really look great for Yates.

By design, I would imagine.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 3:20 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

I, like most people, don't get hints.

That's what made it a brilliant gif. It wasn't really supposed to be an obvious hint. It was one of those breadcrumbs so that if she had to claim today she could go back and say "I left a hint here."

 

Then again, it could have been an unintentional coincidence. Doesn't matter. Just thought it was funny in light of her flip.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 3:13 PM, Zander said:

i dont know if this post makes me feel better or worse about you Yates

Ok? So I guess mark it as null?

 

Why do you think I posted that?

[Zander?]

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:47 PM, Yates said:

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 3:13 PM, Zander said:

i dont know if this post makes me feel better or worse about you Yates

Ok? So I guess mark it as null?

 

Why do you think I posted that?

 

 

 

im not sure why you posted it tbh thats what im trying to figure out.

 

i guess the reason im struggling with it is that im trying to weigh it in with the other concerns I have about you:

- the complete 180 on Cory

- sudden sheeping of Clov's reads and pretty much abandoning your own.

- your defense of Lenlo

- most people myself included feel you are the most likely deep wolf candidate

 

its hard for me to ignore all of this brother.

[Zander?]

@ Yates

 

can you give your WTL list please and some reasoning behind it?

[Zander?]

Zander  698
cory caboose  667
Shad_  512
Sili Quirrels  479
Yates  287
Clovdyx  279
Lenlo  261
Thane Vakarian  184
Taborline  174
Nomi Sunrider  165
Sooh  119
alannalynn  103
dicetosser1  82
BFG  77
Nolder  71
Hallia  71
ReleaseTheEvil  43

 

 

According to the CCSOHW prolly a wolf on the bottom end here....

[Sili Quirrels]

this is confusing.

 

i have exams and assignments due tomorrow and the day after.ill bearound  on mobile in the mornings and a little at nights but that's about all.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:56 PM, Zander said:

im not sure why you posted it tbh thats what im trying to figure out.

Okay. It's pretty easy logic to understand. If I soft that it could have possibly been my kill, it makes it harder for scum to find the real vig [or SK I guess] barring a hard claim. So if you were the vig, for example, you wouldn't even need to claim the shot. RTE obviously always has to claim in this situation.

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:56 PM, Zander said:

im trying to weigh it in with the other concerns I have about you:

 

- the complete 180 on Cory

- sudden sheeping of Clov's reads and pretty much abandoning your own.

- your defense of Lenlo

- most people myself included feel you are the most likely deep wolf candidate

Do you feel like I need to better explain any of this after my wot post? I won't go too nuts as long as I'm just the "deep wolf" candidate but I'm really trying to get myself out of the pool without a mechanical clear.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:58 PM, Zander said:

@ Yates

 

can you give your WTL list please and some reasoning behind it?

Yeah sure, but it's mostly poe - especially since I was so sure of RTE being one of the remaining scum:

 

Hally, obviously. She isn't even trying at this point. And, as I've pointed out several times, this is the Hally scum warning flag.

Dice. I know he says he's been busy. And I know he hasn't been posting in other games. But I think the times he HAS been able to post have been terribly convenient from a game state perspective.

 

This leaves me at Thane or Sili for a third choice [in theory], and I'm not particularly happy about either. If Sili is the last wolf? He has earned this win, imo. And I would say this is the most comfortable I recall ever seeing Thane posting as scum.

 

But if the scum team is Lenlo, Hally, Dice, XXX - who is leading the scum team? I know Sili doesn't like being scum. So while I don't think he isn't capable of being a scum leader, I just don't think the scum team comes in here and rolls the Town so easily with a bunch of low posters and Sili leading the thread direction. So I guess I really don't want to talk about XXX until Hally and Dice are resolved somehow.

[Sili Quirrels]

i'm currently thinking scum have a 1 shot vig.

[Sili Quirrels]

it's what i might do if i came in like rte and hallia was afk.

[Sili Quirrels]

maybe we should check bfg's iso. if she hinted that she was a vig that would confirm rte, and imply he was town.

[Yates]

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:39 PM, Sili Quirrels said:

i'm currently thinking scum have a 1 shot vig.

You have no idea how happy this would make me. BUT, we should probably not lynch RTE today at least.

[Hallia]

Just because I don't put out 1.8billion posts, doesn't mean I'm not trying.  I've kept my head poked in consistently, even if it's not a ton.  

 

Just got in after a day on the lake, so I will be catching up now.

[Sili Quirrels]

  On 11/9/2015 at 1:17 AM, Hallia said:

Just because I don't put out 1.8billion posts, doesn't mean I'm not trying.  I've kept my head poked in consistently, even if it's not a ton.  

 

Just got in after a day on the lake, so I will be catching up now.

do you think we should be townreading you?

[Zander?]

good evening people!!!

 

not much to catch up on i see

[Zander?]

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:05 PM, Yates said:

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:56 PM, Zander said:

im not sure why you posted it tbh thats what im trying to figure out.

Okay. It's pretty easy logic to understand. If I soft that it could have possibly been my kill, it makes it harder for scum to find the real vig [or SK I guess] barring a hard claim. So if you were the vig, for example, you wouldn't even need to claim the shot. RTE obviously always has to claim in this situation.

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:56 PM, Zander said:

im trying to weigh it in with the other concerns I have about you:

 

- the complete 180 on Cory

- sudden sheeping of Clov's reads and pretty much abandoning your own.

- your defense of Lenlo

- most people myself included feel you are the most likely deep wolf candidate

Do you feel like I need to better explain any of this after my wot post? I won't go too nuts as long as I'm just the "deep wolf" candidate but I'm really trying to get myself out of the pool without a mechanical clear.

 

 

 

youve explained it already brother just debating if I believe what youre telling me

 

if you want or feel the need to elaborate feel free

[Zander?]

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:12 PM, Yates said:

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 5:58 PM, Zander said:

@ Yates

 

can you give your WTL list please and some reasoning behind it?

Yeah sure, but it's mostly poe - especially since I was so sure of RTE being one of the remaining scum:

 

Hally, obviously. She isn't even trying at this point. And, as I've pointed out several times, this is the Hally scum warning flag.

Dice. I know he says he's been busy. And I know he hasn't been posting in other games. But I think the times he HAS been able to post have been terribly convenient from a game state perspective.

 

This leaves me at Thane or Sili for a third choice [in theory], and I'm not particularly happy about either. If Sili is the last wolf? He has earned this win, imo. And I would say this is the most comfortable I recall ever seeing Thane posting as scum.

 

But if the scum team is Lenlo, Hally, Dice, XXX - who is leading the scum team? I know Sili doesn't like being scum. So while I don't think he isn't capable of being a scum leader, I just don't think the scum team comes in here and rolls the Town so easily with a bunch of low posters and Sili leading the thread direction. So I guess I really don't want to talk about XXX until Hally and Dice are resolved somehow.

 

 

 

i agree with Hallia and Dice.

[Zander?]

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:39 PM, Sili Quirrels said:

i'm currently thinking scum have a 1 shot vig.

 

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:39 PM, Sili Quirrels said:

it's what i might do if i came in like rte and hallia was afk.

 

 

  On 11/8/2015 at 6:40 PM, Sili Quirrels said:

maybe we should check bfg's iso. if she hinted that she was a vig that would confirm rte, and imply he was town.

 

 

so im assuming you have doubts on RTE's claim.

 

did you come up with anything looking into it?