[Advanced] The Usual Suspects Mafia - GAME OVER - COPS WIN

[Kivam]

 

@Zander - hmm maybe later, but right now the more guns they shoot, the better. If we took away two of the three teams right now, we would be in a hopelessly lost position.

If the game is 12-8, that's false. If the game is 15-5, that's also false (since even then town would be up 5-4 at worst, since no townies are dead and each scum team has lost one). And we ate unlikely to be able to eliminate any team with just today's lynch (only way is if the Hungarians started with 3, which i doubt), so if you want more guns, you'll still have them tonight. Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

[Kivam]

Yes, but we can't remove both teams right now. It'll take days to do that, and the more guns the more chance of a townie dying at night.

 

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 

 

[csarmi]

the more guns the more chance mafia dying tonight IMO

 

but whatever

[Yates]

Do you assume that the scum teams knew it was multiball d1?

Yes? Do you think that's not a safe assumption?

 

I'll put it to you this way; we signed up knowing this is an advanced game. Even if it didn't say anything in their role pm's about another team, what's the point in having a scum tracker or a scum watcher unless it's to find members of another team?

 

I came into the game thinking this would be a recruiting game and that would be the advanced mechanic [made sense for Soze or Kobyashi as recruiter in my head]. But with this being multiball it's both more complicated than that and, in a sadistic sense, more exciting.

[Kivam]

1) if we started 12-8, then there's already more town than mafia left, so you'd be wrong

 

2)even if we started 15-5, there'd be a better than even chance of at least one town death per night (if we lynch scum today, we go to night at 9-5 with four shots coming). Town can't survive those odds, especially since we lose as soon as we have only 1 player left (since we can't win at parity).

 

Simple math says we need to eliminate kills ASAP to have any shot at all

 

Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

 

 

[wish-tree]

Yo. I'm busy today with a webinar training, so I won't have much time to explain myself, etc.

 

I'm not fond of placing my vote on people who I'm not convinced are scum, which is why I vote fairly little and ask more questions and provide more content. If you'd like, please ISO us. But lol, as I've repeated before, Celeste always looks scummy regardless of alignment because of her one liners. Anyway, I'll leave her to you guys today. Try not to eat her.

[Yates]

D-did I hit a nerve? It's interesting how you cut yourself out of that quote.

Hit a nerve? Your "logic" makes no sense. And you are better than that. I'm going to call you out on it.

 

What do you mean by cut myself out? You mean by cropping the VCA to the pertinent bit? The rest of it is there for the world to see. I don't need to requote crap that has nothing to do with my argument. We've been over this already, again, as you very well know since that particular argument was addressed to you.

[Yates]

I still... don't understand?

It's a football thing.

 

Darrel Revis is a cornerback. He's the guy that tries to keep people from catching the ball. He's very good at his job. He's so good at his job that teams often don't even throw the ball to the guy he is covering.

 

In other words, I'm lonely. Everyone seems afraid to throw me the ball.

[Yates]

Hence, Shad is scum, and of the Hungarian variety. Since they are already two men down, lynching him is the best play

I'm giving him 33 more minutes to claim. Then I'll join you.

[Kivam]

Awesome idea; Why don't we just lynch mafia?

 

I honestly don't know how anyone could have anyone as towny right now. Too many alignments means everyone can legitimately, no-foolin, exhibit "uninformed majority" behavior. The only day that probably want true for was D1, since is most likely that each team thought it was the only one (actually, the cops probably knew right away that there were others, and the Hungarians should have. Only the usual suspects wouldn't have had a theme based reason to expect another scum team ... so even looking at D1 moat scum probably behaved like townies legitimately hunting wolves. This is ugly) Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Why would the cops know any different? I also don't know source material, so maybe I"m missing something

 

Even if you don't know the source material, look at the name of the game, the movie poster image in the first post, and the tagline: "What the cops never figured out, and what I know now, was that these men would never break, never lie down, never bend over for anybody...anybody."

 

[Yates]

Bold: this is the exact opposite of what we need. The fewer teams alive, the worse.

???

Explain how having MORE killing factions alive is good for the Town. This sounds suspiciously like a "leash the SK" type of argument.

[Kivam]

 

Bold: this is the exact opposite of what we need. The fewer teams alive, the worse.

???

Explain how having MORE killing factions alive is good for the Town. This sounds suspiciously like a "leash the SK" type of argument.

 

Yes.  From that we can deduce that Csarmi is scum.  To which, I can only say this:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxlhyX-4qKI

[Yates]

Let's assume 4(m)-3(m)-3(m)-5(t) alive right now. Remove the 2 3x team and it's lylo.

LOL - we only get to lynch 1 scum at a time. Then there are cross kills. The only way this makes sense is if neither scum team hits the scum team with the lead [the Cops]. And both of the scum teams that are behind have extra motivation not to kill Town but to target the Cops. AND you are missing a 4th killing party [four dead last night, remember?]. Which means there's a FOURTH mafia team [or SK] out there still undetected.

 

And this reinforces the logic behind my character claim plan, fwiw.

[WWWwombat]

So Ocicat showed up in my PM :D  Trying to get him to post eventually.

[Kivam]

So Ocicat showed up in my PM :D  Trying to get him to post eventually.

LOL.  I sympathize.

[Yates]

Where's CorKey? I'd really like them to weigh in on this.

[Pralaya]

 

Let's get this puzzle step by step. This was around the time Lenlo lynch started.

Note Lenlo and ClovFG voting Sephander. Both Len and Clov are from the Hungarian mafia team. It doesn't look like bus at all but a counter-train. That means, Sephander is NOT hungarian. It is very probably that Kiv is in Lenlo's team, and a counter train was created to put heat on sephander.

 

 

This theory is straight up insane, since there's no reason that Clov and I would have jumped to Lenlo's train rather than Zander's at EoD.  And if we were just looking for a bus target, I would have been the obvious choice, since I was already catching heat and Lenlo wasn't.  That's a pretty convoluted theory that I just don't get.

 

Clov/BFG did jump into Lenlo's train when he had only four people on them. We now know that both were in the same team. So, there clearly was busing going on. 

 

Lenlo was getting a lot of heat and yours and zander's trains were stalled. So, my theory isn't that improbable

 

 

 

Yes.  Zander.  Add me, Lenlo and Clov to his lynch and see what happens.

 

Or CFD to Csarmi (same math, IIRC)

 

That would have been way too obvious, no?

 

It is not about numbers at all.

[Pralaya]

Although, the fact that Shad voted Kivam when the Lenlo train was growing does look like he was trying to save Lenlo. That would be the point which absolves Kivam and implicates Shad

[Pralaya]

I like how Nolder has been analysing the game - on similar lines as what I was thinking. Don't see Nol as scum here.

 

However, I have no idea why Darthe placed a vote on me saying that I am inactive. I guess I have more game-related posts than Darthe himself?

[Shad_]

Although, the fact that Shad voted Kivam when the Lenlo train was growing does look like he was trying to save Lenlo. That would be the point which absolves Kivam and implicates Shad

 

This only makes sense if there is only one scum team.  It sounds to me like you want to protect Kivam.  >_>

[Pralaya]

 

Although, the fact that Shad voted Kivam when the Lenlo train was growing does look like he was trying to save Lenlo. That would be the point which absolves Kivam and implicates Shad

 

This only makes sense if there is only one scum team.  It sounds to me like you want to protect Kivam.  >_>

 

 

At that point in the game, everybody thought there was only one scum team. 

[Shad_]

 

 

Although, the fact that Shad voted Kivam when the Lenlo train was growing does look like he was trying to save Lenlo. That would be the point which absolves Kivam and implicates Shad

 

This only makes sense if there is only one scum team.  It sounds to me like you want to protect Kivam.  >_>

 

 

At that point in the game, everybody thought there was only one scum team. 

 

 

But you're saying it's absolving Kivam now, unless I read your post out of context.

[WWWwombat]

Yates trying to appear town when he's Cop Mafia is cute.

[WWWwombat]

 

Morning Zander, how are you? Who are your team mates

 

Jesus, Gandhi, heart warming orphans and Aaron Hernandez

 

ABOOT as towny as it gets imo.

 

Also....you're prolly scum so glgl.

 

 

One of these things is not like the others...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(It's Zander)

[Kivam]

 

 

Let's get this puzzle step by step. This was around the time Lenlo lynch started.

Note Lenlo and ClovFG voting Sephander. Both Len and Clov are from the Hungarian mafia team. It doesn't look like bus at all but a counter-train. That means, Sephander is NOT hungarian. It is very probably that Kiv is in Lenlo's team, and a counter train was created to put heat on sephander.

 

 

This theory is straight up insane, since there's no reason that Clov and I would have jumped to Lenlo's train rather than Zander's at EoD.  And if we were just looking for a bus target, I would have been the obvious choice, since I was already catching heat and Lenlo wasn't.  That's a pretty convoluted theory that I just don't get.

 

Clov/BFG did jump into Lenlo's train when he had only four people on them. We now know that both were in the same team. So, there clearly was busing going on. 

 

Lenlo was getting a lot of heat and yours and zander's trains were stalled. So, my theory isn't that improbable

 

 

 

Yes.  Zander.  Add me, Lenlo and Clov to his lynch and see what happens.

 

Or CFD to Csarmi (same math, IIRC)

 

That would have been way too obvious, no?

 

It is not about numbers at all.

 

 

No.  As alterna-lynch candidates, Lenlo's vote would have been easily explained as a self-preservation vote.  Zander's dancing at EOD would have legitimated a Clov move, and my vote would have been obvious self preservation. 

 

Anyway, your theory is that the Hungarian team created a counterwagon to save me ... by creating a counterwagon on a different teammate?  It makes no sense at all.  Even if you want to assume that I'm a Hungarian mafia power role (spoiler: I'm not), there was a ready-made counterwagon in Zander already rolling before Lenlo built up.  And Clov moving to the Zander wagon would likely have unstalled it.

 

So yes, self-evidently, there was bussing going on.  But the notion that it was a bus on Lenlo specifically to save me (another teammate) isn't a reasonable deduction at all.  

 

Here's your logic in a nutshell:

 

1) Clov and Lenlo were Hungarian.  They voted Seph

2) Therefore, Seph is not Hungarian (i.e. they were not bussing)

3) That makes Seph's train a "counterwagon"

4) Counterwagon to whom? Aha! Kiv.  They must have wanted to save Kiv!

5) So they saved Kiv by having Clov and Kiv vote Lenlo (i.e. they were bussing)

 

The whole convoluted theory depends on Clov both not being a busser  at the outset (voting Seph to save his Kiv teammate) but later choosing to bus Lenlo instead of saving him.  You've got to flip Clov's motives and play like a pancake to make it work - and all of it hangs on the assumption that Clov and Lenlo voted Seph as a counterwagon to save me, rather than as the better choice to avoid being on a townie lynch (me) or as the vote they felt they could justify most if pressured. 

 

It's pretzel theory at its worst, Pral.