Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

dicetosser1 · July 16, 2015

the way he pushed the Rand lynch yet saying it had to be rand verb and in that order.

top 2?? Probably Zander thane

BFG · July 16, 2015

SHOULD the wolves use their vig shots N1, the pool of suspects would get rather small. So, imo, they have a NK as well. It's going to be interesting how this will play out

what did you mean by the bold?

Thane Vakarian · July 17, 2015

basically, i wanted to say that the wolves would not kill a lot of people N1, with all the shots at their disposal. If they used all their shots, and you'd have a few hero shots, then the game would have been over faster imo. 3 kills N1 is already a lot, but they're not all wolfkills.

We can be fairly certain that Hallia was a hero shot. We don't know if Pral pulled a trigger or not. So, worst case, only one shot by a wolf N1, could have been Laine. And the wolves have 2 shots left now, seeing there was only 1 kill N2 and nothing else. Or, Laine didn't get the chance to shoot, and there's only one wolfkill left.

BFG · July 17, 2015

Talya, need your thoughts on AJ/Zander.

Who would be yourtop 2 suspects?

BFG · July 17, 2015

I'd hoped for more discussion over night :/

TLDR

I'm about ready to LOCK Thane is as Town. Essentially reading through Day 1 there are a LOT of things that Thane does that I don't see him doing as mafia. His push against Dice, after most people have lock cleared him is also far more likely to come from Town!Thane than mafia Thane imo.

On a side note Dice's reaction to Thane is also *more likely to come from town Dice. (Not actually massively confident that that's true as a generic statement, but conf bias for the win)

As is probably apparant (especially after the Rand/Verb mislynches) my cold, unfeeling, British exterior cunningly conceals a complete and utter inablity to determine genuine human emotion :unsure:

That being said, general thread consensus was that Thane's ATE EOD1 was genuine and I'm happy to go with that and in fact most people cleared him for that.

In general my thoughts about Thane are about the same as every game; sounds relaxed on thread, some thoughts easily thrown out, both of which cover both his mafia and town games perfectly :dry: I can no longer clear Thane on enthusiasm, tone or volume :(

However, Pral said that Thane is more likely to 'defend' low volume posters as town and I'm happy to believe him on that (and also checked out the LotR game). I don't think mafia!Thane tries misleading setup spec as a tactic. His consistent *push against Dice is also ~more likely to come from town!Thane, possibly.

The only thing he's done that I think is more likely to come from mafia!Thane is to doubt my claim, but from a generic viewpoint mafia aren't likely to doubt it (as they have no reason to in a open setup), so question becomes how 'un' generic a player is Thane (rhetorical question, don't feel you have to answer).

Rand/Pral/Verb have all flipped town with Thane as a ~strong town read, and Pral and Verb have played enough games with him that I *trust their judgement over mine here, especially when mine is wavering on null.

Thane is out of my lynch pool, unless somebody has extremely compelling arguments why it has to be him, and why everyone else (but one) has to be town.

Thane, I think you're town, I think Dice is town. If you disagree with the latter you need to convince me otherwise, I'm ready to listen to your gut :)

BFG · July 17, 2015

Dice, same back at you - I think you're town, I think Thane is town, if you think otherwise convince me.

@Thane/Dice I'd rather we focused on Zander/AJ/Talya for the moment - they're my lynch pool for today and I have a definite preference on order.

Thane Vakarian · July 17, 2015

at this point, i'd like to put dice in town as well... i really do....

POE is Zander, AJ and Talya.

Question is: was Verb/AJ town/town or town/wolf.... i don't know for sure.

I'd be ready to vote either one of those 3.

BFG · July 17, 2015

My thoughts on the D1 No lynch essentially hinge around WHY mafia couldn't get a lynch through... I know that phase deadline was rough on a lot of people (still alive), since although CF didn't happen we were expecting it to.

I think (I still need to check) that the only person 'in thread' that wasn't voting the main lynch was Zander. Phase change will have been 6AM for Thane, 5AM for me, Talya and AJ were already on the train. Not sure on Dice, but he'd posted to say he was away(?). Laine is our flipped mafia who wasn't on the lynch and said she fell asleep (I think). I don't know Laine well enough to know if she was telling the truth here or not, so it's an uneasy null. If she was lurking then AJ/Talya are likely the team, I don't 'think' that's her style though, which opens Zander(Dice/Thane) to the pool.

So unfortunately this doesn't tell me as much as I'd hoped. But it's worth considering.

BFG · July 17, 2015

at this point, i'd like to put dice in town as well... i really do....

POE is Zander, AJ and Talya.

Question is: was Verb/AJ town/town or town/wolf.... i don't know for sure.

I'd be ready to vote either one of those 3.

Which would be your preference?

BFG · July 17, 2015

And why are you putting Dice in as town?

Thane Vakarian · July 17, 2015

for the moment? Zander, then AJ, last Talya.

as for dice, i trust your judgement (no pressure :wink: )

dicetosser1 · July 17, 2015

Dice, same back at you - I think you're town, I think Thane is town, if you think otherwise convince me.

@Thane/Dice I'd rather we focused on Zander/AJ/Talya for the moment - they're my lynch pool for today and I have a definite preference on order.

All right I can roll with that. The amount im waffling on him almost HAS to mean hes town.

Also yeah I was away on a Boys weekend for that lynch D1

Zander? · July 17, 2015

there was no D1 lynch... town was all over the place and didn't decide on the right person to lynch. Not lynching D1 isn't a bad thing when no obvious wolf is around if you ask me. Saving a mislynch could be helpful later in the game.

And, yeah, we need a wolf today.

as for Zander.. it's more gut than anything else. He should have been louder when a townie is mislynched... especially in this stage of the game.

i find this strange Thane. you were reading me town and now cause Im not as loud is the reason your doubting me. You know Im in 3 games currently I doubt anyone could be as active as they normally are. Verb's town flip sucked yet it only makes me even more confident in Talya being a wolf.

Zander? · July 17, 2015

@Zander - IF Rand flips town, and that's a big if imo, then this is something I'd definitely consider.

Would also make me suspect Verb a bit as well since he's sort of bandwagoning the theory and now backing off a bit.

Would still rather resolve Rand first before I start to tinfoil on others when he could very well be a wolf. I would hate to get off track at this point. Town could very easily be out of firepower based on how roles were randomized and scum probably have at lease one more shot in their pocket.

you know what im with you on this pending Alanna's answer to Shad's question. we need the info from these two to progress this game atp.

[v[ Rand [/v]

I like the way Shad thinks: Rand was looking bad D1, so probably shot N1 and is out of bullets. He's a harmless wolf: he can bark, but not bite. Rather kill a wolf that can still bite.

Thane is soooo town this game it scares me!!! Good job Pops!!!

But we have to remember theres a 2x Vig as well. Could Alanna's push and subsequent wolfy play be an attempt to draw off of him and on to her cause he may be the 2x Vig?

Im starting to sketch out on Zander. These two posts make me think he is looking for a reason NOT to vote Laine

Zander wasn't on Alanna. do you still feel like this Dice?

i already explained why I wasnt there Talya. But keep trying to throw dirt at me. Others are slowly starting to see what I do as well.

Thane Vakarian · July 17, 2015

Among Talya and AJ, who'd be more likely to flip wolf here? Not only a question for Zander, he was quite clear

in other news: i leave for vacation on sunday, from that moment on, i will not have any internet access anymore

Zander? · July 17, 2015

Zander & AJ: I was pretty sure that both were town the first half of the game. Well, up untill verb's townflip actually. I'm doubting AJ is town here now, purely on his interaction with Verb. He didn't seem too devastated that Verb was town. I also lack that kind of reaction from Zander to be honest. Zander was quite vocal early game, but i get the impression his posting gets less with the amount of players left.

I consider you clear, BFG. Leaves 4 people, with two wolves. And one could find points against all of them.

The trick is to find the right ones here.

there was no D1 lynch... town was all over the place and didn't decide on the right person to lynch. Not lynching D1 isn't a bad thing when no obvious wolf is around if you ask me. Saving a mislynch could be helpful later in the game.

And, yeah, we need a wolf today.

as for Zander.. it's more gut than anything else. He should have been louder when a townie is mislynched... especially in this stage of the game.

at this point, i'd like to put dice in town as well... i really do....

POE is Zander, AJ and Talya.

Question is: was Verb/AJ town/town or town/wolf.... i don't know for sure.

I'd be ready to vote either one of those 3.

And why are you putting Dice in as town?

for the moment? Zander, then AJ, last Talya.

as for dice, i trust your judgement (no pressure )

you've completely flip flopped on Dice and me based on a gut read of me as being wolfy for less excitement. flipped on Dice for what reason..another's read? And you state you doubt AJ is town for the SAME reason as PLUS his interaction with Verb yet your wanting to lynch me before him?

please explain this a bit for me pops cause im not sure if im missing something here or not.

Thane Vakarian · July 17, 2015

i needed some time to make up my mind, Zander. Call it flip-flopping if you will, but a wrong decision can be fatal for town and i want to make the right one

BFG · July 17, 2015

Zander - your top 2 suspects?

I can guess one of them :dry:

BFG · July 17, 2015

Skimming Day 1 for the votes...

Page 42 Hallia is on fire :wub:

In general there's a lot of stuff I now want to respond to dead players on, ah well

Zander? · July 17, 2015

Zander - your top 2 suspects?

I can guess one of them

obv Talya

and then AJ...though ive been reading him town ive wavered just a bit after the Verb interaction.

BFG · July 17, 2015

Day 1 votes:

Only serious vote before this I missed was AJ's on Shad

<snip>

obviously crawling for town cred

unvote vote LAine

after your reaction i think you are mafia

for the rest its been mostly fluff tho I took note of AJs gut and Yates test.

i thought she was visible but fairly null Talya

Official Vote Count 6:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (2/7): Shad, Dice

No lynch (2/7): Yates, Talya

Shad (1/7): AJ

Not Voting (7/13):

BFG, Verb, Laya, Laine, Thane, Zander, Hally

<snip Thane on Verb/Pral>

Vote: Thane

i'm currently trying to re-read. It takes time at work. i've said so before. Ignore that, if you want.

[v]Hallia[/v]

you're grasping., tunneling... whatever...

I'll be back in a few hours (!) when i have managed to reread while AT WORK

[v]Thane Vakarian[/v]

Yay!

Official Vote Count 7:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Shad (1/7): AJ

Thane (2/7) Hally, Shad

Hally (3/7) Thane,

No Lynch (1/7) Yates,

Not Voting (6/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine, laya. Zander, Tayla

<snip>

So basically town reads on Yates, Shad, and Thane

Scum reads on Alanna, Talya, AJ

For now, [ v]Alanna or Laine?[\v] not good at nicknames sorry

My vote would be on Hallia.

[v]Hallia[/v]

There have been some suggestions from Yates and Shad on no-voting today. I don't agree. Especially with town also being vigs, the game is going to be mostly blind if there are no flips. I am pretty sure if we no-lynch, neither town nor scum is going to kill anyone and it will be back to square-one tomorrow.

Damnit Hally.

I'm on page 22 catching up but you are quite obviously a wolf. Town points for anyone that knows how to read Hally telling me why - based on page 22 alone...

Le sad.

[v]Hally[/v]

meh i dont know if BFG is scum or frustrated towny,

going with my first bad impression

[v] Talya [/v]

Official Vote Count 8:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Shad (1/7): AJ

Thane (2/7) Hally, Shad

Hally (3/7) Thane, Yates, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander

Not Voting (4/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine, Tayla

gonna be gone today daughters having her wisdom teeth out

Okay I'll trust you.

What do you think on Rand? I think you posted how you were suspicious of his intro posts and I haven't seen him since.

A couple things from his catch-up, reading in reverse order:

* He says Laine is trying to turn Dice's joke vote against him and set him up as scum.

--This is pretty ridiculous. Your response to the joke vote was "Dice how is that helping at all? Do you have actual points to make?" and Dice is the one who started tunneling you, not vice-versa.

* He doesn't like AJ for explaining his own scum game to people.

--But AJ never did this. He just explained the atypical set-up of Middle Earth and its implications. And he was right, by the way. I ran into the exact problem AJ is describing when I tried to use Middle Earth to study him in Star Wars.

* He doesn't like AJ for doubting Darthe would go "derp, gg town" if everyone voted no lynch. He asks "Why didn't you vote? Were you trying to stall until mafia could think of something to do? Biggest scum read." Yet he likes me for researching the rules. Aren't AJ and I doing pretty much the same thing here? But I get town cred for it and he's scummy.

* He thinks Talya is "fence sitting" on page 9 because she doesn't have a strong read of Yates yet. Has he ever played with Yates before?

* Rand scum reads Laine almost immediately, on the grounds that :???: I guess he doesn't like that she's joking around with people who joke voted her? I don't get it. It's like he thinks the people who joke voted her are total strangers to her, and she's shady for returning the serve. But if I joke voted a stranger, shouldn't I be the one who looks a bit suspicious?

Thanks for asking me to look into him again Laine! Kind of reiterated what I was feeling last night and made it more glaringly obvious.

[v]Rand[/v]

Too wolf to be a wolf maybe, but it feels like he drew three town names out of a hat and just went to work trying to dig up whatever dirt he could on them with little regard for anyone else. Still feeling Thane as scum, but that's more for what he hasn't done yet. Rand's catch-up is pretty terrible.

It's getting late already, and I haven't moved from here for hours

[v]Rand[/v] as per above

[v]Rand[/v] btw.

Think there's a good chance we found a wolf here with the type of arguments he is pushing.

Feeling pretty good on some of my town reads.

Zander/Talya two of my stronger.

Shad is trending up.

I feel pretty good about BFG and reasonably okay with Yates and Laine.

Thane probably a villager too.

Pral seems okay at first glance but I'll need some time to read him better - he's tricked me in the past but thus far I liked his entry.

Dice still mostly null.

Hallia more on the scummy side of null but still has some redeeming qualities.

Rand probably scum.

Verb hasn't posted yet - so no clue.

Official Vote Count 10:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Thane (1/7) Hally

Hally (3/7) Thane, Yates, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander

rand (3/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine,

You're cutting and splicing quotes of mine that had context before and after them, not including those. Great way to take things out of context to make them seem scummy

Unvote

Vote: Yates

I'll be sticking here.

Thane and Pral are viewing but not posting? That's never a good sign.

Deadline is in 43 minutes. VC incoming

Official Vote Count 11:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Hally (3/7) Thane, Yates, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander

Rand (3/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj

Yates (1/7): Hally

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine,

Unvote

Vote: Rand

[v]Rand[/v]

Fine. I'm out. Night all!

5minutes

vc?

Official Vote Count 13:

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Hally (2/7) Thane, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander

Rand (5/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj, Hally, Yates

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine

If Dice was mafia I *think he'd have moved his vote to Hallia before leaving. Sticking to his guns here is a really good look for him (regardless of who he was voting).

Based on AJ's & Hallia's observation that Thane was viewing the topic he isn't mafia with Zander, because the 2 could have switched to Rand for a town lynch without looking awful; bonus in that Rand could have been the doc and they wouldn't look awful for the lynch.

Laine says she fell asleep, I don't think she's the sort to lurk as mafia, at least she wasn't later; which means that Zander/Laine can't be ruled out here.

Cursory analysis suggests that at least one of AJ/Talya is mafia, but since I already think that it's not a big surprise.

BFG · July 17, 2015

for the moment? Zander, then AJ, last Talya.

as for dice, i trust your judgement (no pressure )

I was afraid you'd say that :(

Why Talya last?

Dice, same back at you - I think you're town, I think Thane is town, if you think otherwise convince me.

@Thane/Dice I'd rather we focused on Zander/AJ/Talya for the moment - they're my lynch pool for today and I have a definite preference on order.

All right I can roll with that. The amount im waffling on him almost HAS to mean hes town.

Also yeah I was away on a Boys weekend for that lynch D1

you mean daughters wisdom teeth :laugh:

Your lynch order?

BFG · July 17, 2015

Zander - your top 2 suspects?

I can guess one of them

obv Talya

and then AJ...though ive been reading him town ive wavered just a bit after the Verb interaction.

Curious as to your thoughts on Dice/Thane?

Zander? · July 17, 2015

Zander - your top 2 suspects?

I can guess one of them

obv Talya

and then AJ...though ive been reading him town ive wavered just a bit after the Verb interaction.

Curious as to your thoughts on Dice/Thane?

i have had them both town most of the game. the only thing that stuck out to me cause now Im looking at everyone with a least a little suss except you is their sudden change of read on each other. but meh.

Only looking Talya and AJ now, Im trying to keep a town pool and look outside of it,

Talya the best choice today imo.

Whats your preference order BFG?

dicetosser1 · July 17, 2015

for the moment? Zander, then AJ, last Talya.

as for dice, i trust your judgement (no pressure )

I was afraid you'd say that :(

Why Talya last?

Dice, same back at you - I think you're town, I think Thane is town, if you think otherwise convince me.

@Thane/Dice I'd rather we focused on Zander/AJ/Talya for the moment - they're my lynch pool for today and I have a definite preference on order.

All right I can roll with that. The amount im waffling on him almost HAS to mean hes town.

Also yeah I was away on a Boys weekend for that lynch D1

you mean daughters wisdom teeth

Your lynch order?

its all blurred together lol

order would be zander then if he flipped town talya if he flipped mafia then AJ

Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

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