Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[Zander?]

 

OMG BFG I JUST NOTICED THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SIGGY!!!!!

 

I lynch the uncontested Doc when I'm Town lololololol

 

 

I LOVE YOU...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

that was actually in response to Laine doing the same thing after DT in SW, but timing lol

 

 

seeing a bad trend here...lolololololol

[Zander?]

still around 27 hours left in the day phase

 

i prolly wont be around for DL tonight.  UFC 189!!!!  LETS GO CONNOR GOAT AND RORY!!!

 

 

ANDDDDDDDDDD NEWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!!!! x2

[Zander?]

How is me wavering on a player I voted for wolfy?

 

It's like you guys want to treat indecision as bad all of a sudden. Wolves can't fake indecision very easily.

 

C'mon AJ, don't make me drag you over the finish line. You're saying I'm a wolf no matter what Rand flips. Me wanting to talk through the situation more is hardly something I should be sussed over.

 

imo- in this case its because you voted for him after claiming Rand/Alanna was v/w and Alanna flipped Wolf and Rand is in the PoE . Now he's still in the PoE and at L-1.  It seems from our PoV that you may know Rand's Alignment.  With Alanna flipping wolf and you voting someone you thought was town over her.  Now after her flip you wanna eiither not vote him for credit or not vote a scummate, (my thought process on this)

 

Does that make sense?  fwiw its worth Ive liked your post and have town read you but that vote on Rand and not Alanna looks very suspect imo.

 

Im still willing to hear you out though.

[Zander?]

 I'd like to hear more from Dice and Thane on Rand and Verb

 

@ Thane you seem to suspect Dice a little can you elaborate or touch on that please?

[Zander?]

 

Rand's impending lynch is starting to look too easy.

 

 

 

 

[EDITED]

 

I wasn't here during night, remember I popped in thinking it was day 1, and it was day 2.

 

[EDITED]

 

Tbh... I didn't really click those posts I just figured I'd catch it on my reread.  And I hadn't gotten to the Yates/Hally part yet since I started on page 1, because I thought it might give me a more thorough read.

 

Also, Laine, why are you claiming right now for no reason?

 

Also, that vote seemed a lot like an OMGUS + jump on the BW vote.

 

[EDITED]

 

I actually don't know what that means... it wasn't a term when I was around, Verbal or the other older-timers (I'm not really an old-timer, middle-timer?) can attest to that, I just assumed it meant wolf? wolf/wolf?

 

[EDITED]

 

Ohhh, kinda get it? Lol at the slip that just does not happen, I was actually known for accidentally letting slip I was scum in one game, by literally stating I was scum or something similar.  The best part is that I still won that game.  It was a long time ago, Basel's Executioner Game I think.

 

Btw, working on my reads list, I'm still reading to whoever asked, I haven't forgotten.

 

Ok, so my boss at work just dropped another 10+ hours of work on me, so I'm going to get out what I have so far after finishing page 37.

 

[EDITED]

 

Not really fosing anyone here, but I gotta side with defending Shad here, but not with Shad if that makes sense.  D1, especially early D1, people often grab onto smaller things simply because its all that exists.  Look at what I was doing during d1, which people got mad at too.  I picked up small FoSes, even pointed out that they were small, but people kept getting mad that I was putting people on my scum list for something that was so small.  Introductory reads generally don't have huge reasons, excluding huge slip ups.  Its a way to get the game started.

 

[EDITED]

 

Tbh, I don't see Thane being this obvious as mafia (like others have mentioned).  Its pretty ballsy for mafia to openly OMGUS the person that voted them, especially during D1 when there are so many other directions for a train to go.  I see this as Thane striking out as town.

 

[EDITED]

 

K, this is a little tinfoil, but imo at least one mafia/wolf would want to know why Yates had a scum read on someone if that person was town, because if valid enough, scum would have a reason to bw on the train all the way to lynch town, while having Yates lead it (who we also know is town), as a perfect excuse.  I also believe because of this that Yates wasn't killed by the mafia, because they would have wanted to keep him alive to put the blame on for killing Hally.  Anyways, this leads me to thinking one of Shad and Laine is mafia, and since I have a townread on Shad right now, and a maf read on Laine, I'm leaning towards Laine being mafia.

 

[EDITED]

 

These are some solid reasons, let me do my best to address them.

 

 

Not only that, but she "jokingly" brought up all the other joke votes on her, trying to exaggerate the voting into almost a train that would make people stop voting her and give an opening for maf partners to start questioning the people joining the train like Dice.  Then she can hop on and say, yeah they tried to lynch me in the disguise of joke votes.  That's how it sounded when I read it honestly, for the second time too.

 

[EDITED]

 

OK and these are the last two posts, and I have absolutely nothing solid here at all, but for some reason, my scum radar was going berserk when I read these posts.  I just put these here to see if anyone else has the same reaction, or can quantify/give reasons for what I'm feeling.

 

Anyways, biggest scum reads so far are Laine, AJ, and slightly Talya still.  Also, I'm going to examine my train a little later, but Verbal made a mention about my train being a pure town train.  I call pure BS, there's no way scum isn't going to join a train when they have an easy opportunity to lynch town "just so someone gets lynched that day".  But thats from my POV, even if you think I'm mafia, do you think not a single mafia is going to bus me?  Imo, mafia are, as usual, split on my train, so I'll go through later and look at that.

 

My town reads are also still pretty much the same, I'm hoping thats because I had it right eventually and not because I'm tunneling, but Shad, Thane, Dice, and Zander so far.  Tbh, BFG's null for me, don't get the town hype on her, but I'm still not done yet I guess, and Verbal I haven't seen a post on my read from yet, but its not looking great for him from what I've seen while I'm reading in the current posts.  I'd say very very slight scum read so far with the potential to grow.  Idk if his calling of my train seeming too easy was a scum jump off early, or just normal train analysis.

 

 

Didn't answer all the questions:

 

[EDITED]

 

I'll have to go back and find AJ's quote, I remember something specific that made me go scummy scummy scum scum.

 

You got town cred for it because you actually foudn a legitimate reason it wouldn't work.  AJ ADMITTED not knowing why it wouldn't work, knew there was a possibility there could be an auto town win, and didn't go for it.

 

Umm, a long time ago, so idk, just count it as a no.

 

She keeps bringing up each vote on her repeatedly, saying everyone's going to be voting her for her preferences, sounds like intentional exaggeration to gain sympathy.

 

K gotta go, hope that gave you guys some outlook on my view of the game, I'll do more later tonight

 

[EDITED]

 

Well, I mean I was being honest, not making up some BS, it was honestly just a strong gut feeling...

 

[EDITED]

 

As I said, I tried not to repeat things others have said, but I think the fact that Thane is playing the game rather than trying to act town is plenty enough reason for a town read.  Someone else said nearly the exact same thing iirc, and no one commented on that.

 

[EDITED]

 

Like I said, Im' trying to find new points in my rereads, so that I'm not just boring you guys with info you already know and just sheeping people who already did the work.  And at the same time what I'm saying is someone probably thought Yates was mafia and tried to go for the hero kill and killed a town instead.  I'm still agreeing that Yates killed Hallia, I don't see what so unbelivable about that.  Is it so hard to belive that mafia just used one kill and killed Pral? Also, if there are 13 people starting, and mafia kill one person each night, and we lynch one person each night, and lets say for kicks we're wrong all 4 times, that puts us at 5 people left, 3 of which who are wolves, who now will win.  I can see them only using 1 kill per night, and this night on Pral.

 

[EDITED]

 

Honestly, when I've gone back and read, I'm not looking at Yates/Hally/Pral's reads at all, or very little to be exact.  I'm more going with how other people interacted, when they FoSed or jumped on a bandwagon etc. that's definitely more indicative.

 

 

Anyways, I'm not going to be here at the deadline, and I have to go to sleep now. Unluckily I didn't get any progress on the reread since my car died twice today, which was killer, but I just got back and quickly read everything that is currently happening.  Pretty obviously I'm going to [v]Laine[/v] here since the other option is here, but I've also laid a case out for her (or a few quotes at the least).  And just so no one misses this

 

Laine is now at L-1, next vote will be the hammer on her lynch

 

Also, since I'm not going to be around until after deadline, I'm just going to claim just in case the train goes against me.  I'm Rob Gronkowski (yeeee), 1x vig, unused.  If I do live tonight, I'm planning on using the shot because it looks like I'm going to die anyways the next day, and although I do have my list, I'm fine with being town led AS LONG AS EVERYONE OR ALMOST EVERYONE GIVES THEIR OPINION ON WHO TO SHOOT. I don't want an active mafia majority influencing me on who to shoot.  Anyways, night peeps, I'll probably be on for a few more minutes in case you guys have questions and stuff for me.

 

[EDITED]

 

I mean, I guess Gronk's awesome so he's town? Also Darthe said he gave safe claims to mafia that were randomized from a list, which would mean that there's really no point in juding me off my claim, I just did it for context, plus I like being Gronk.

 

[EDITED]

 

I mean, I'm going to prove it (that I have a kill) tonight so...

 

lol

 

[EDITED]

 

What I'm going to do to people when I vig them

 

 

[EDITED]

 

Yeah, I've already stated some of my ideas, and I'll get more as i read more, but like I said, if town as a whole decides, I'm up to killing them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

My town reads are also still pretty much the same, I'm hoping thats because I had it right eventually and not because I'm tunneling, but Shad, Thane, Dice, and Zander so far.  Tbh, BFG's null for me, don't get the town hype on her, but I'm still not done yet I guess, and Verbal I haven't seen a post on my read from yet, but its not looking great for him from what I've seen while I'm reading in the current posts.  I'd say very very slight scum read so far with the potential to grow.  Idk if his calling of my train seeming too easy was a scum jump off early, or just normal train analysis.

 

hahahahahahaha

 

hahaha

 

haha

 

 

 

No.

 

I feel like Rand should die first, here, and Laine should be vigged tonight.

 

meh

 

 

[v]Rand[/v]

 

 

I have meetings all day, but I'll try to poke back in before noon to move if I need to for a lynch.  Just not ready to hammer yet.

 

Those are all of Rand's posts from the point you mentioned him being too easy of a lynch to the time you decided to vote him again over Laine, our only confirmed wolf, who was at L-1 at the time. He made 13 posts if I counted correctly, and the only one you quoted was his reference to you to substantiate your vote on him.

 

Sort of aligns with Shad's theory that Laine was a better lynch because it was more likely that Rand as a wolf vig had already expended his shot N1 after barely slipping the noose D1.

 

So now that they're laid out - perhaps you can give some more in depth analysis?

 

 

Bold ya thats a part why I can't shake this feeling on Verb.

[Zander?]

ebwop

 

ya thats part of the reason

 

the typing is hard....lolololol

[Zander?]

 

Question:  do you guys think Rand would stoop to the level of blaming Cloudflare of some technical glitch on why he didn't submit a kill?

 

 

He's either a wolf that used up his shot, or he's a villager who's telling the truth.  But this explanation is pretty bad, which makes me think he might be a villager telling the truth.  I'm back on the fence with him.

 

 

Please nobody hammer Rand until he can come in and present his case on me.  I'm genuinely curious, because I've wavered on him recently.

 

I repeat, no hammer.

 

Oh um, I was actually talking about my case on Talya, AJ, and BFG.  My case on you was pretty simple, low activity combined with an apathetic voting pattern that seemed like it was just jumping on the BW and laying low.  You're starting to look better when you're active, but not to a point where you're not at the top of my scum list.

 

Here we have Rand and Verb both backing away from their previous scum reads on each other. Before this Verb was voting Rand EOD2 and going into D3 Rand had Verb as his #1 scum read.

 

Neither have voted or cased one another - or anyone else for that matter. Apparently Rand has dropped Verb from #1 and instead is focusing his attention on me, BFG and Talya who are ALL have considerable village equity at this point.

 

This is what I meant by not letting them up for air. We have given them a gasp and now they want to get a lungful - you guys need to see this.

 

 

 fwiw well Verb did vote Rand but looked worse for it based on what was going on with Alanna and her subsequent Wolf flip and his reasoning behind it.

[Zander?]

I think we have this in Verb/Rand but if we're wrong this is the best time for me to claim.

 

Hardclaim: Town doc (Ryan Fitzpatrick)

 

Assuming mafia still have a shot left and we're currently 6v2 then town have 3 mislynches/vig shots before mafia reach parity.

 

Claiming now removes the chance of them gambitting when they're closer to winning.

 

I think we have it, this is a just in case claim :)

 

 

 

OMG BFG I JUST NOTICED THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SIGGY!!!!!

 

I lynch the uncontested Doc when I'm Town lololololol

 

 

I LOVE YOU...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

that was actually in response to Laine doing the same thing after DT in SW, but timing lol

 

 

so you lynching yourself today???!!!  lolololololololol

[dicetosser1]

dammit!  i lost everything!

[dicetosser1]

 

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

 

 

I cut the above out of somebody elses quote  thats why it looks weird

 

 

Actually id rather go Verb  Ive got this nagging feeling that Rands gonna flip town. It seems too easy and then theres that first post of his today   its just SOOOO derp!  and the way he wrote it felt very honest to me

 

Plus in your scenario above Verb is always Mafia in either option and you think snows out of shots...so why go him first?

 

 

[Zander?]

 

I'll likely hammer before I get to London, but I want to spend a bit of time reading Day 2 again first

 

Can't wait

 

 

 

lolololol AJ's gif game most impressive imo!!!!!!

[dicetosser1]

 

I think it's Rand/Verb an overwhelming amount of time here.

 

Verb basically doesn't want to work with town on the merit of wifom and Rand is continuing to act as if there is no reason to be suspicious of him. Like it sort of baffles me lol. Ignoring everything and everyone calling you wolf doesn't clear you, bro.

 

Think it through.  If I admit I have a shot, then I'm getting shot that night and I might not be ready for a hero shot.  If I admit I don't have a shot, then I'm probably not getting shot by the wolves in favor of them hunting for other vigs and/or Doc....and I'm probably a PoE lynch candidate at that point.

 

Had I been playing from the start, you'd never be lynching me.  The little I've been able to play this game, however, should be reminiscent of the ME game.  I suggested caution and kept rethinking things - essentially slow-playing it 100% of the time.  I'm either misclearing somebody (which will make me sad), or you're stuck in a tunnel wanting me to be a wolf.  You've played enough with me to know my towntells.  Stop ignoring them.

 

 

 

Phase should be ending within the hour btw.

 

Please, please stay focused to my villagers out there. Don't give the wolves any relief - you hold them under water and watch them flounder. No mercy for the enemy.

 

You said essentially the same thing to me yesterday when I wasn't sure about Rand.  I eventually went back there and voted, and now you're casing the hell out of me.  Do you see the disconnect?

 

 

 

Think it's time to chill out and enjoy the ride though because I don't see Rand or Verbal flipping town under the current circumstances.  My guess is they're praying for a helping hand from hero shots at this point.

 

You played 2 games recently with me when I was a villager - I'm kinda surprised you ignored those tells and decided I was a wolf.

 

 

 

 

Rand's impending lynch is starting to look too easy

 

 

As in I'm starting to doubt the validity of Rand/Laine w/w......feels more like v/w, actually.

 

Can we get a VC/DL post pls?

 

 

I feel like Rand should die first, here, and Laine should be vigged tonight.

 

 

meh

 

 

[v]Rand[/v]

 

 

I have meetings all day, but I'll try to poke back in before noon to move if I need to for a lynch.  Just not ready to hammer yet.

 

 

i dont know about anyone else but this progression of Verbs is just off imo.  in the off chance Rand flips town and with staing he thinks Rand/Alanna is v/w yet refuses to Hammer her is a very very bad look imo.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

The 2nd and 3rd posts there are a day apart.  With AJ suggesting we stay the course, and the pages in between those posts, it isn't that difficult to imagine me changing my mind about the order in which they should die.  I even voted Rand to complete the consistency there.  The only disconnect you can see if me thinking maybe Rand is a villager and Laine is the wolf instead of both wolves....but I went back to the original thought process (again, that AJ asked me to do), and voted Rand.

 

I'm not going to repeat this again.  Pay attention to the consistency and ignore the "mind-changing", which is certainly more indicative of a villager trying to see all angles than it is a wolf going for low hanging fruit.

 

 

The red is what REALLY makes me want to vote Verbal.  I agree his vote D1 was yuk. but I was just going to follow along tbh I could see the arguments but hed been here so little that they seemed to lack some strength.

 

But what Townie cares about consistency enuff to vote to COMPLETE THE CONSISTENCY???

 

 

I will hammer Rand if I need to but Id really rather take Verb out now.  

 

Can someone tell me when DL is?

 

 

Vote Verb

[Andrej]

@Dice - I don't believe Rand at all. His entire game had been nothing but bad logic and even worst excuses.

 

Seriously - I was hoping to wake up to another hammered wolf this morning. This is starting to drag.

[dicetosser1]

so why not lynch verb first AJ? Whats the difference?

[Andrej]

Rand is at L-1 already and has been for going on 30 something hours.

[dicetosser1]

yeah and?

 

Yesterday you wanted Rand before Verb. Part of the problem that has been used on verb is that he wanted Rand before Laine.

 

DL is not in 5 minutes     tho i would love a timer about now.

 

Give me REASONS why not Verb first

[Andrej]

I have already.

 

At this point we're really just dragging our feet.

 

Both are wolves - but what's the need to CFD when we already have one at L-1? That's just unnecessary.

[dicetosser1]

and if Rand flips town?  what then? we go "aww shucks" and lynch verb anyway?

[Andrej]

Yep. I doubt it though and when he flips wolf that implicates Verb 100% as Rand himself has amusingly pointed out.

 

I'm seriously not buying anything Rand says at this point regarding his gameplay or lack thereof - and I think I responded really well to all of Verb's reasonings last night with my bigger posts.

 

I have too many strong town reads on basically everyone else to even consider anyone but those two as the last wolves at this stage in the game. Just look at their progression since Laine's lynch. They've both backed off scum reading one another and are just floating not doing any actual hunting despite being dragged towards the hangman.

[dicetosser1]

all right then

 

unvote  vote rand

[Talya]

hmm... i kinda like Verb for the moment.... it's scary and confusing.

 

I'll think about a scenario where he isn't wolf, just in case. Which, will not be easy.

 

Chae is in London (meeting BFG among other things) and i have all 3 kids at home. Online time, therefore, is limited.

I wish I was going, Chae said about it, but I couldn't.

 

For info, I won't be around too much I have an exam Thursday and a lot of work to do before then.

 

@Dice, can you give any good reasons why we should go Verb over Rand?im feeling it more from Rand tbh. What would be your thoughts if Verb flipped town not wolf? Apart from beginning of D2 why else do you think Rand isn't the way to go today.

[Talya]

When is deadline? Anyone know?

[Andrej]

Hammer just dropped - so we're good Talya.

 

Thank you Dice.

[dicetosser1]

seriously Talya?  If Rand and verb flip town I lynch AJ.

 

 

as for reasons  people have some waffle on rand. Im not gonna be surprised if he flips town  but people dont seem to have any waffle on Verb.

 

If hes so consensus why is he second??  

 

 

We will ahve to wait and see now

[Andrej]

seriously Talya?  If Rand and verb flip town I lynch AJ.

 

 

as for reasons  people have some waffle on rand. Im not gonna be surprised if he flips town  but people dont seem to have any waffle on Verb.

 

If hes so consensus why is he second??  

 

 

We will ahve to wait and see now

 

Won't happen.

 

People are waffling on Rand for the wrong reasons imo. It's got nothing to do with his gameplay but on something that we can't prove and have to just take his word for. Like I said already - he's used up all the benefits of a doubt I had to give when he popped in after N1 ended claiming he had no clue what phase it was.