House of Cards

[Cory Caboose]

hello wombat

 

i feel like we're on two seperate minecarts from super mario RPG and we are on a collision course

 

what kind of music will our collisions make?

 

A reminder that I am psychic sometimes

[Cory Caboose]

There's no way to actually do this because we don't have post counters per day but if you can, pay attention to people who had a good deal more VOLUME of posts on d1 in comparison to d2

 

If there's a "universal tell" that I somewhat believe in, it's that wolves tend to have a drop of posts from d1 to d2 more often than villagers do

 

IE, after Sooh and Darthe got nicked, who wasn't here trying to figure out this mess? Find those people. Another situation where I don't remember a single thing Verbal or Cass did on d2.

[Clovdyx]

For Cass, there isn't nearly as much about Wombat as I would have expected.  Her first post pointed out him making a lot of snap reads without explanation and fluff, but getting better as he progressed.  She questioned a lot of his reads but didn't give alternatives/try to point out why he's wrong.

 

About halfway through D1 (I think) she had him in as a suspect but didn't want to vote him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just meant that I haven't seen you really provide anything that I would describe as helping me to read you since you came back in today. Yesterday I felt I was getting more from you... Could you give me some current leans, please?

 

Verb is my villager peek so that goes without saying. Going off thread I think Nyn is on her villager game and I think Clov is too. Darthe is more likely to be a villager here based solely on numbers despite my suspicion of him earlier. Kaylee seems okay, she's making her observations that are accurate in the moment. I'd probably peek her just to confirm her because I think she's likely to make it deep into the game on the merit of not getting NK'd often in this roster and clearing her would be valuable later on in POE.

 

Cass might be light green for the moment. I appreciate Cass expounding more on her thoughts to show her perspective which I don't think she'd do as well if she were wolfing again.

 

Dice had his 'gut read' opener which I think by now I should probably consider more of a neutral movement at this point in our experience together. I'll need more from him. Leelou can fit into this category as well because I haven't seen enough from her to really place her outside of null. Tress would be here as well until she comes back more with her own thoughts.

 

I'm undecided on you atm. You've said some things that came across weird to me but I think you've made some decent posts as well. The one you talked about people ignoring / defending you as suspect could offer some valuable insight later on if you're a villager here. I agreed with some of your points.

 

Cory and Wombat I have as hesitant wolf leans for now. I feel like the way Cory is engaging those who suspect him is more in-line with how I would do things as a wolf although I admit that could just be my own personal projection on his play. Wombat is more of hunch I guess. I don't think any of the observations he's made couldn't be done as a wolf and I think there's some potential for distancing between him and Cory happening. Cory's post about them colliding as Mario Kart characters or whatever gave me that impression.

 

 

I like the fact that Sooh asked for this. I don't like that she didn't provide an opinion of of AJ's alignment with the fact that she felt like she was getting more from him the day before. 

 

I'm uncomfortable with AJ removing Darthe from the wolf PoE after his earlier suspicion (again), because i) I still feel Darthe's early game seemed more likely to be scum and ii) IIRC AJ didn't change his stance/read on Darthe until after I copped direct heat for highlighting it and he didn't come straight out with it at the time either. I find the explanation for Sooh being undecided is more vague than the other explanations and this is potentially concerning.

 

Otherwise, I mostly like this particular post from AJ and agree with his explanations. Add Tress and Verb into the Dice/Leelou section and add AJ and to a lesser extent Clov to the people I'm especially wary of and this is essentially where I'm at for now.

 

 

?Town

Nyn

Kaylee

 

 

Null/Need more

Tress

Dice

Verb

Leelou

 

 

Especially wary:

 

but probably won't vote 

Wombat/Clov/Cory

 

and possibly could vote

Sooh/AJ/Darthe

 

 

Yes, I realise I'm wary of almost everyone who's been posting. Tbh I'm not entirely sure I should be putting anyone in this game near ?Town, ever, but feel I have to start somewhere and Nyn and Kaylee feel the safest choice so far.

 

 

 

 

 

From my POV, that's two known townies there and two known townies in the list of people she was wary of and WOULD vote.  

 

Next serious mention about Wombat was this, from a few hours later.

 

Wombat -  Early gut tone felt overly ambiguous, later attitude is flippant and I'm getting vibes somewhat similar to when we played together as wolf. Can't explain it better than that right now.

 

 

 

So she seems to be displaying a lot of paranoia and mixed feelings on him, but not really doing much about it besides questioning him on some reads.  There's a lot of people you can say that for from her, so maybe it's nothing, I don't know.  Not liking it though.

[Cory Caboose]

FWIW I also think that Darthe was killed n1 almost exactly for his "I got the seer peek in my role PM" post response to Yates' modtrolling because the wolves probably thought this was mechanical knowledge a vanilla villager would not know, which further validates the Tress = V cover.

 

I couldn't discuss this yesterday for obvious reasons.

[Cory Caboose]

Ooh, I forgot that AJ was pushing Wombat as a wolf on d1

 

AJ if you're a villager you weren't totally terrible, you just focused on the wrong guy

 

Time to line up his narrative to see if he held Wombat believably as suspect throughout the last d2

 

Reading d2 in particular should be VERY informative, on like page 15 now, will have to do most of it after work tomorrow since I need to go to sleep soon but I am going to reread every little word and do everything I can

 

Anything in particular you notice or think I should look out for or think about please let me know. I don't want to "take over" this game, I want us to engage diplomatically and democratically and come up with a strong and intelligent PoE that you guys can move forward with after I die and you're absent of my relentless post spamming and obnoxious clinical addiction to internet argument games

[Clovdyx]

I would be incredibly surprised if Wombat would let a kill go through on somebody he knew could not be the cop.

[Cory Caboose]

Clov I am going to wish on the stars and the sky that as I fall asleep I have a prophetic dream where I realize you are a villager and can say it with confidence

 

There's nothing I want more in this whole world

 

I really do think you are a villager based on [reasons and observations] but it can't be as easy as Verbal/Cass can it?

[Andrej]

Wombat's peek was Kaylee, ftr.

 

While I was waiting for phase change earlier I went through to see if I could find his n1 peek but the best I could find was a post where he had Kaylee, Clov and Tress blue. Nyn was green I think.

 

The reason I bring this up is because snap judgement tells me to think Wombat more than likely provided accurate peeks on villagers. The n1 peek is a bit ambiguous but I think he was alluding to Clov being it and Tress being blue for SHC.

 

I know there's ~strategy for fake peeking one of your wolf bros for late game plausibility after the seer dies but I'm not sure if that's the case here.

 

I'm glad that I don't have to tinfoil on you anymore Cory. Honestly after that exchange with Wombat yesterday I felt a spike of fear in my gut.

 

Leelou flipping seer makes sense. I had an idea it was either her or Tress at this point. Also glad that I don't need to worry about Dice anymore because I was starting to get concerned with his overall absence.

 

I think the lynch is pretty obviously between Cass and Verb toDay and I have no issue voting either. Might go Verb first just cause but I still think Cass needs to be resolved. I seem to recall a WTL list she provided that had me/Sooh/Verb(?) all in the bottom with Wombat floating just above. I'll see if I can find it but my son is watching a movie on the laptop and I'm stuck on my iPhone so it might take a bit.

 

Someone assist?

 

Cory

Dice

Nyn

Clov

Tress

Kaylee

 

Cass

Verb

 

Lynch from the bottom up and we win every time imo. Verb/Cass interchangeable. Hopefully that ends the game.

[Andrej]

Clov I am going to wish on the stars and the sky that as I fall asleep I have a prophetic dream where I realize you are a villager and can say it with confidence

 

There's nothing I want more in this whole world

 

I really do think you are a villager based on [reasons and observations] but it can't be as easy as Verbal/Cass can it?

The bold scares me a bit too but it could just be exactly that.

 

Also I'm pretty sure we are town reading Clov for the exact same thing.

[Cory Caboose]

I think AJ and Clov are on the same team, fwiw.

 

I think that team is the village, but if Cass and Verb are both town somehow (I really, really, really, really, really doubt this) I would go ahead and resolve them post-haste.

 

Then again if AJ were a wolf I think Clov would have started bussing him lightly by now.

[Cory Caboose]

Also I'm pretty sure we are town reading Clov for the exact same thing.

 

If it's the thing I think it is, he's clever enough to fabricate the whole thing as a wolf.

 

But I think overall his whole game here is a lot closer to his villager game than his wolf game.

[Cory Caboose]

Nyn can you remind me who you fakepeeked on d2?

[Andrej]

I would be disappointed if that was fake with the angle to clear himself tbh.

 

Like kinda pissed disappointed, but whatever. I'm not gonna question it now cause it seems this game is gonna wrap up nicely despite my attempts to sabotage it lol

 

Clov I think that read list you quoted from Cass is a good one to look over again. She has there townies in her WTL, two are confirmed and I'm the third. She had a confirmed wolf in her won't vote pile and Verb is hidden up in her null section.

[Clovdyx]

Here is what I saw from AJ for Wombat on D2, specifically.  Bold/red is things that stood out to me - not something he put in them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[v]AJ[/v]

 

Get off the sidelines, bruh.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Legit though Wombat, I think you could be a wolf this game. I would appreciate you trying to assuage that impression.

 

 

 

 

Extremely high % of finding a wolf(ves) in

 

Wombat

Cory

Clov

Cass

 

imo

 

Need to sort this bunch asap.

 

 

 

 

 

Basically where I'm at with you.  Either you are a wolf or we need to get on the same page I guess.

 

Enlighten me a little, then. What page are you on? Generally I've got the impression that your posts have been fairly low effort. I see potential connections with you and other players I'm wary of atm.

 

 

Extremely high % of finding a wolf(ves) in

 

Wombat

Cory

Clov

Cass

 

imo

 

Need to sort this bunch asap.

 

Batting .500 max here.  More likely .250 imo.  Your D-Backs namesake is raking on my fantasy team btw.  Get on his level or concede?:(

 

1/4 chance statistically is accurate. Which of the four do you think then?

 

Right now I'm having a hard time seeing the game any other way though I can admit that I have been extremely wrong before.

 

 

 

^ this is chopped for things not about Wombat

 

V all sorts of chopping

 

Okay Nyn, like I promised. I should've probably reread the entire ISO you did before I did this one, but whatever.

 

These are the posts from Verb that I liked as D1 went along and why I picked him to be my peek. I was trying to feel things out for myself and it seemed we might be on the same page regarding some players.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can you bring up some Wombat posts that made you feel that way from before his posts now?

 

I'd like to see this as well - I'm getting the opposite read from Wombat.  I have him as slight wolf lean.

 

Still maintaining his scum read on Wombat. This was one that at the time I liked.

 

 

 

So basically what you're saying is that wombat at Clov can't be read?... seems awfully simplified, but ok...

 

I am saying they are both players who keep their ranges extremely consistent and are very difficult to read accurately on d1

 

Just how it is

 

This is true, but Wombat's scum tells become apparent in the mid-game.  I've been pretty successful in identifying them recently, so my confidence level there is high.  I have him as a light wolf lean, and it'll become very clear to me by the time we're ready to make a decision one way or the other.

 

More talk about Wombat maybe being scum. This one sort of gives me pause looking at it again and it carries throughout Verb's posts to come. Wombat is definitely still in my possible scum list at this point and dropping cover I'm starting to question Verb as well. They have both sort of maintained a hazy scum read on the other but that's about it. Could mean something - maybe nothing but I think it's worth noting.

 

I'm gonna chime in on this one, too.  I'm confident in my ability to read Leelou.  In recent games, my reads and her alignment have gone like this:

 

I read her wolfy and it grows over time = she ends up being a wolf

I read her wolfy and it starts to dwindle over time = she ends up being a villager

I read her as a villager and it starts to dwindle over time = prob about 50/50 and where I'm wrong the most

I read her as a villager and it grows over time = she ends up being a villager

 

So I'm only worried about that 3rd line there.  The other times, I've been extremely accurate with her.  My misses have been in that villager-->wolf progression.  I don't have a real read on her yet, but I expect that to change soon as she said she'd be digging into the thread.  FWIW, snap read on the little content thus far is villager simply because of her defense of Dice.  She's not going to dance around seer cover and how to defend your peek and attack -- she's just going to attack and be blunt about it.  It is her style.  So initial village points for that.  More to come.

 

This post is well said at least. I think Leelou is probably town as well.

 

 

I have to run in a few min, but I plan on being available via phone for EOD.  Just in case, I'm going to place my vote now.

 

[v]Sooh[/v]

 

Did not seeing anything from Wombat or Cass to make me move them ahead of Sooh for my WTL.  Part of this is my emotional scarring from the incident in the JN game I explained, and part of it is that I really think my linking of Sooh/Cass is accurate.  I think Sooh is the more likely wolf, but I'm confident one of them is either way.

 

So this one might be important if Verb is w/w with Wombat. This is a post he made after voting Sooh to explain why he picked her over his other scum reads Wombat and Cass. The bit about Cass and Sooh being opposite alignments doesn't look good if Cass is a villager here, which I am starting to consider as a possibility. Not a huge one yet, but either way one's flip will say something about the other.

 

Best wishes to anybody going through rl stuff. :-(

I'm off work today and have a ton of stuff to do so I won't be on much until later. I'll keep up via phone.

I rolled the dice last night and stuck with my peek of Cory. I won't be giving you crap anymore now, heh.

I'm also sticking to my guns from yesterday - I thought Sooh was the wolf, but Cass was the wolf in my mind if Sooh flipped villager. I'll pull up the quotes later, but them not being on the same team was screaming out as obvious to me.

[v]Cass[/v]

 

Votes Cass toDay to remain consistent with the one or the other theory. Not a huge fan of this post for that reason. 

 

 

If you are still here, can you tell me what you think of Wombat and Clov's most recent posts?

For Dingbat, I need to read him today still. He was in my WTL yesterday, and I haven't noticed anything today to change that....but he's a subtle player so I need to read him with a more critical eye.

For Clov, seriously, he's as close to a blue I can have outside of peeking him villager. His feelings on Cory are ones I shared before today. If I'm not the Seer and never peeked Cory, then I'm light blue on Cory with a lot of tinfoil at the ready.....and I really like how Clov is interacting with him.

 

Answering Leelou about Womby/Clov. Again - keeping that distance from Wombat. Talking about having him WTL but still needs to look closer at him, etc.

 

 

Verb, why didn't you think Sooh/Cass could be V/V?

Why should I have you as town?

That's a really good question and now I'm wondering why myself. I'll need to go back to that sequence on my computer - please don't let me forget this.

 

Maybe this can offer some clarity moving forward. Sooh did flip villager and I'm considering Cass as one potentially so now I'm wondering if Verb was just linking early ~consensus scum reads for ammo to continue scum reading them later.

 

 

 

 

Dropping seer cover and looking at Verb again with an objective eye I think he could be scum - or at least probably should be considered. I'm not any more confident on him than my other potential suspects, but I need to start deciding. I felt good enough about him early on to make him my N0 peek but looking again without the bias some of his later posts leading into EOD1 and the direction he is moving in today make me question my quick read.

 

I'm going to work under the assumption that Cory is town.

 

These are the players I think ~are town.

 

AJ

Nyn

Clov

Cory

Tress

Leelou

Kaylee

 

Dice

Cass

Verbal

Wombat

 

I am going to drop all cover and claim VT in this situation. If Verb is a wolf then he and his team already know I'm not the seer so I'm not going to pretend and play from that perspective anymore.

 

My town group being that big probably means that I'm misclearing someone(s) because I would be surprised if all three wolves are in my bottom four but that is something for later and if I'm wrong on anyone in the bottom that will shed light elsewhere accordingly.

 

Dice is closer to the town group than Cass for me, but that spot is likely interchangeable depending on how both of them continue.

 

Verbal/Wombat. Could probably go either way here. I don't think this pair will be v/v in most situations but w/w could be a possibility. v/w also possible and both I am sort of mixed on which could be expected I suppose given who they are. I go back and forth on them. Verb was an early town read and Wombat scum, now it has kind of blended. Wombat's more recent posts addressing me directly make me second guess the early scum read just like Verb's later posts have me doubting my town read.

 

 

 

 

 

Wombat earlier you said that you have me, Dice and Cass as your top 3 suspects but that we were all fluid.

 

Could you explain why?

 

My town reads are a lot stronger than my scum reads and Sooh flipping town muddled things a bit too.  None of you are even close to "lock wolf" territory imo (not that I ever actually lock reads without mod confirmation).  Dice hasn't posted that much, so he could easily redeem himself, and both you and Cass have said some things that have made me think twice.  Combine that with some reasonable suspicion of my nulls and town leans, and I don't have an entirely clear picture of the scum team, but I do feel like I'm a flip from being able to break things open.  Any headway I can make before then could prove pivotal.

 

Okay - so who are your very solid town reads?

 

Does this list still apply?

 

Wwwwombat

Kaylee

Clovdyx

Songstress

Bewbs McGee

 

Not lynching.

 

I agree on the point that Dice hasn't said much and could redeem himself - I'm willing to give him that opportunity as I think his posts today could be a glimmer of town!Dice coming out. I am a villager - I think Cass is probably ~more likely a villager than wolf so there is potential that all three of us are town. Let's pretend that is the situation.

 

Who would your suspects be?

 

The problem I am having is that I don't really see a scum team without you on it and I haven't gotten that sense yet that you're town. Taking me, Dice, Cass out of the situation leaves you with Cory, Leelou & Verb. The first two I am keeping as town for now and wouldn't consider lynching.

 

 

 

I'm gonna [v]Wombat[/v] for now.

 

I would still consider lynching anyone in my bottom 4 but for now Wombat is my best bet. In most situations where I compare his potential alignment with other players I arrive to the outcome that he is scum most of the time.

 

 

 

 

I feel better about these interactions than Cass, slightly worse than I do about the things from Kayleee I pointed out.  Maybe he just knew that Wombat was a sunk cost and wanted to open the distance before it was too late, but it seemed like he had opportunities (and reason) to push others.  Unless it was Wombat-Verb-AJ, I'm inclined to think Mafia!Verb would try to push Verb first and write it off as "well, I guess I was wrong about them being mafia/mafia", then come back to Wombat if he needed to distance.

[Andrej]

 

 

hello wombat

 

i feel like we're on two seperate minecarts from super mario RPG and we are on a collision course

 

what kind of music will our collisions make?

A reminder that I am psychic sometimes

I read this as distancing when I first saw it tbh.

 

I was half correct

[Andrej]

I adopted a dog today btw.

 

Just felt like sharing

[Cory Caboose]

congrats on the dog, doofus

[Songstress]

Nyn can you remind me who you fakepeeked on d2?

 

Pretty sure Bewbs didn't do seer cover.  I made a list for reference while re-reading the thread at the end of each day and didn't find any peeks from her or Hally.

[Andrej]

Somebody made a statement earlier regarding Cass that she tends to wait late into the phase to vote the established lynch of the Day when she's scum. Somebody should pull her vote on Sooh D1 and let that be brought forward again.

[Clovdyx]

I would be disappointed if that was fake with the angle to clear himself tbh.

 

Like kinda pissed disappointed, but whatever. I'm not gonna question it now cause it seems this game is gonna wrap up nicely despite my attempts to sabotage it lol

 

Clov I think that read list you quoted from Cass is a good one to look over again. She has there townies in her WTL, two are confirmed and I'm the third. She had a confirmed wolf in her won't vote pile and Verb is hidden up in her null section.

 

I noticed this.  I don't know if mafia!Cass would be more likely to put a teammate as null or on her "will actually lynch this person" list, but it stood out to me that two confirmed townies were on both weary lists.

[Andrej]

congrats on the dog, doofus

Thanks

 

He's a schnauzer/terrier mix. I named his Oliver

[Cory Caboose]

Catching up where I left off.  I agree with those saying that Cass' reads are bad, but I'd like to read more of her posts before deciding whether or not they are actually scummy.

 

hmmmmmmmmm

[Clovdyx]

Somebody made a statement earlier regarding Cass that she tends to wait late into the phase to vote the established lynch of the Day when she's scum. Somebody should pull her vote on Sooh D1 and let that be brought forward again.

 

You mean where she was literally the last person to vote her, despite being weary enough to go there?

[Cory Caboose]

Somebody made a statement earlier regarding Cass that she tends to wait late into the phase to vote the established lynch of the Day when she's scum. Somebody should pull her vote on Sooh D1 and let that be brought forward again.

 

Cass was one of the last to vote Wombat, fwiw, and voted very very late on Sooh

 

I remember marking her down as a non-voter on d1 and remember her vote on Wombat because I was trying to CORY CABOOSE it, but people refused to let me

[Andrej]

"Weary" enough.

 

Yes.