Escape From The Carnival Of Horrors! Game Thread [Mafia Win]

[Thane Vakarian]

and, yeah, i'm not the most expressive player out there. i have problems wording my exact thoughts

[Andrej]

@Tina & Verb

 

Read this and let me know what you think please. No one responded to this but SQ at the time iirc

 

 

Sili/Red/Hallia

 

Good game guys.

 

 

Wifom aside, I don't think any of these players are scum.

 

 

D2.2 Vote Count

 

 

 

Kaylee (1): Red2111

Hallia (2): Leelou, TinaHel

Nolder (2): Andrej, Sili Quirrels

 

Not Voting (6): Verbal32, Thane Vakarian, Hallia, Nolder, The Crusher, KayleeWith 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

I thought I voted Red?

 

Eh w/e I'll vote Hallia instead then since deadline is so close. They're both mafia together imo along with Sili.

 

[v]Hallia[/v]

 

This is post reveal, so it's not hugely reliable but working off the assumption that Nolder was still going through old posts to this point, him voting Hallia to make her the lead wagon over himself is pretty much clearing for Hallia imo.

 

D2.4 Vote Count

 

Nolder (5): Andrej, Sili Quirrels, Red2111, Kaylee, TinaHelHallia (2): Leelou, Nolder

Not Voting (4): Verbal32, Thane Vakarian, Hallia, The CrusherWith 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

I kinda hope this was Nolder goofing and not realizing he'd been outed yet. Again post-reveal, so could be intentional in the event I'm wrong on my other two reads, but if not then Nolder kinda messed up here.

[Red2111]

@Tina - Nol voted Hallia after AJ's reveal

 

 

 

 

It's going to be Nolder, Leelou and Thane.

 

I would bet the house on that.

 

IF I'm wrong, I would retake a look at players like Kaylee or Red (although Red's newest post putting Nolder in the lead probably clears her), but knowing that this will make me sound conceited I really doubt that I'm mistaken with my reads.

 

Here's the thing, I've been playing today with the knowledge that Nolder is guilty.

 

I tracked him last Night and sure enough, he visited Nynaeve. Withstanding there being some kind of manipulation role, this is about as sure fire as it gets. I contemplated holding off on revealing since it seems Nolder might swing today as it were, but I still feel like this knowledge is important and should be shared in the event that I'm killed without revealing. I don't want my posts to be looked at in hindsight and for others to think I mean things I didn't when my role is revealed.

 

Presumably, I have went back and looked at various players' reads list and their interactions with my known guilty target and have kind of crunched the numbers a bit. Sorry that I had to string you along Sili, but I asked pointed questions at the beginning of this phase purposely to see where you would land irt Nolder. I feel reasonably safe seeing as how he focused his attention on you the most to keep from actually scum hunting that you are probably clear. I feel similarly about Hallia, not just because of their back and forth but because of some of the others things that she pointed out in her last posts that coincide with how I'm seeing the game. I'll pull quotes and what not to show what I'm talking about but based on the way Nolder and others have regarded each other and my own feelings on the player list I am about 92% confident that all the Mafia are in Nolder, Leelou & Thane.

 

 

D2.3 Vote Count

Nolder (3): Andrej, Sili Quirrels, Red
Hallia (2): Leelou, TinaHel

Not Voting (6): Verbal32, Thane Vakarian, Hallia, Nolder, The Crusher, Kaylee

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

 

[Cory Caboose]

[Verbal32]

<3 Thane

[Verbal32]

Hi Verbal, welcome to the game.

 

Now, with everything going on, what i'll try to tell you might sound odd, but i'm convinced i'm right. I hope you will be too.

 

This entire post here just reeks of wolf. Would she have hammered instead of vote me, then she'd be top suspect. Now, if Leelou still would be voted,she could have stated that she 'knew Leelou was town' and hope to stay off people's radar for some time to come. Ofcourse she knows Leelou is town, she's wolf. Her entire vote on me is to gain towncred.

 

Now, perhaps she thought that someone would hammer Leelou and get away with it. She is, still, one of the top suspects in the game. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, so here's the dilemma: two townies with trains on them, so it was difficult to choose who to go for. 

 

Throughout the gamephases that i haveread today, i never really was convinced that Hallia was town. Just doesn't feel like it... gut says, Leelou town, Hallia wolf.

 

So, Verbal, feel free to read the rest ofthe game, but you have my opinion on her  

 

LOL'ed at work very hard.  Well done.

[Thane Vakarian]

 

i'm still convinced Hallia is the way to go today, but, seeing nobody believes i'm town, it's hard to convince any of you to vote her. That's the feeling i have for the moment.

 

Explain why Hallia is scum to me.  Explain like I have just subbed into this game.

 

i just had some fun responding to your request there *nod*

[Verbal32]

@Tina & Verb

 

Read this and let me know what you think please. No one responded to this but SQ at the time iirc

 

 

Yes, yes, thank you.  I did read that - actually, your point was the major thing that made me move Hallia up to green.

 

That said, a hard bus at the end is not something Nolder would avoid doing, so you can't place too much stock in it.  But because I had Leelou, Kaylee, and Thane as higher suspect, the POE actually helped move Hallia up as well.

[Red2111]

@ Thane - i aint the most eloquent players either, but just because you're not fancy with wordage doesn't mean you can't get your point across *nods*

 

 

Nolder voted Thane early on in D1 then moved to Sili for EOD. D2 he only voted Hallia.

Leelou voted Red and Kaylee I believe thru EOD and then only Hallia D2.

Thane was only on Red D1 and no one on D2.

 

*nods*  Thanes vote on me was originally a OMGUS SMA vote to tie his an my wagon.  dunno why he parked it there tho

 

 

Hi Verbal, welcome to the game.

 

Now, with everything going on, what i'll try to tell you might sound odd, but i'm convinced i'm right. I hope you will be too.

 

This entire post here just reeks of wolf. Would she have hammered instead of vote me, then she'd be top suspect. Now, if Leelou still would be voted,she could have stated that she 'knew Leelou was town' and hope to stay off people's radar for some time to come. Ofcourse she knows Leelou is town, she's wolf. Her entire vote on me is to gain towncred.

 

Now, perhaps she thought that someone would hammer Leelou and get away with it. She is, still, one of the top suspects in the game. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, so here's the dilemma: two townies with trains on them, so it was difficult to choose who to go for. 

 

Throughout the gamephases that i haveread today, i never really was convinced that Hallia was town. Just doesn't feel like it... gut says, Leelou town, Hallia wolf.

 

So, Verbal, feel free to read the rest ofthe game, but you have my opinion on her  

 

i disagree.   the only time a non-ninja hammer makes sense from scum is if the is on a scum-mate. 

 

if Hallia is scum and Leelou is town, then scum-Hallia ninja hammers to stifle convo and fast track the day so she gets her NK, this way a townie death is insured.  and fast hammering Leelou in her current situation wouldnt harm her thin town cred imo; not with the case that is built against leelou.

[Thane Vakarian]

i got home 4.5 hours ago, but i've been busy with so many things, i'm still in work clothing. RL has me annoyed, and mafia has me frustrated..... i think i need some more beer today

 

 

@ Tina - i cant recall when Nol placed the vote on Hallia, i'd have to go back and look

 

 

@Red: honestly, you're tunneling on a townie? what will you do wheni flip town? who'll be next?

 

1st - i doubt you'll flip town, i've doubted it since D1.

 

2nd - if you read my posts then you know full well whose in my scum salad and who'll i'll be going at next

 

3rd - this feels like you've seen people jump off Leelous train after she asked that, so you went "hmmm wonder if it'll work for me"   the bad thing is with that, you've got too many independently scummy things against you for that ploy to work.  hence why

 

Thane > Leelou when it comes to Red's preferred lynch today

 

 

i'm still convinced Hallia is the way to go today, but, seeing nobody believes i'm town, it's hard to convince any of you to vote her. That's the feeling i have for the moment.

 

its not that we dont believe your town, its that you have yet to make a compelling enough case as to why we should vote Hallia after what Nol (a confirmed scum) did.

 

 

 

i'm still convinced Hallia is the way to go today, but, seeing nobody believes i'm town, it's hard to convince any of you to vote her. That's the feeling i have for the moment.

 

Explain why Hallia is scum to me.  Explain like I have just subbed into this game.

 

 

see, this is another thing thats not setting well with me on Thane.  he's not readily offering up info on why he has those reads; he has to have it dragged out of him.  like with his reads list on D1 and me asking him repeatedly about why he had those people as scum.

did it ever occur to you that i, in fact, might be busy?

[Verbal32]

 

did it ever occur to you that i, in fact, might be busy?

 

 

This is not a good excuse for the entire game, though.  You've hung your hat on that the whole time - it works against you.

 

Do you have kids?

[Thane Vakarian]

3 daughters, aged 2, 5 and 7...; they keep me busy when at home.

 

At the same time, i'm on the end of setting up a medievel re-enactment association of my own with all the legal stuff involved.

[Verbal32]

That can explain not being able to expound on anything during a particular phase, but not the whole game.  That is what ends up getting you in people's scum lists - you don't really explain yourself in a way that gives people comfort that you're town.  Sometimes you do, and it is painfully obvious, but other times the water is murky.

 

This is one of those murky times.

[Red2111]

just thinking out loud.

 

my list is as follows

 

LawkClear - Verb, AJ, Tina

 

Tina is moved up by processes of elimination and the fact that in retrospect, what i have as her as pinging is small bones in comparison to others.  Verb adn AJ are in cement boots on my LawkClear list, Tina is lawkclear for right now

 

 

the rest is in order from scumsalad to scumlean.

 

Kay = Thane > Crush = Hallia = Leelou

 

 

right now our ratio (town:scum) is 7:2.   so out of "Kay = Thane > Hallia = Crush = Leelou" only 2 can be scum.  if i take into account the logical assumption of the NK (which i do so with a grain of salt cause ... WIFOM but wtf, why not YOLO it) then my list becomes this

 

Thane = Kay > Hallia > Crush > Leelou

 

Leelou and Crush move up to ScumLean because frankly i think there too seasoned to make such a flub with the NK like that. which narrows down to "Thane + Kay > Hallia" for scum salad. 

 

not narrowed far enough, as there is only 2 scum left.  so taking into consideration the rest of the events and doing a pro/con list of stuff i can recall without going back and re-reading

 

Thane

 

he hits all the red flags for "lurking scum" and no redeeming townie points from what i can see

 

- he's active but never really involved

- he came to Sili's defense to try and cool an emo-rage (possible white knighting?) yet didn't do the same with dice.

- his game content is mostly "summary posts"

- has to have his scum salad reasons dragged out of him

- his vote on Hallia D3 just comes off as odd

 

 

Kay

 

hits the notes of active scum; but has a few redeeming townie points in how she's handling pressure, and 1/2 her scum points is null as she also does them as town.

 

- "going with the flow" on most lynches

- most of her cases are echos from what already been said

- she tried to capitalize on Sili's Big game hunting opening discussion as a legit technique for scum hunting this game

- she's referred to herself as a weak player, which comes off as trying to use it as a shield

- her comming at me D1 felt forced and the reasoning for poking me wasnt solid

*i know i'm missing something here, but i cant recall it ....  <_<

 

Hallia

 

is waffling between "lurk scum & disinterested townie".  her only townie points are her lack of a ninja hammer on Leelou & Nol going at her (though the Nol thing is WIFOM and weak)

 

- she's lurked the entire game up

- she's been wagoning with her votes

- iirc i haven't really seen any scum hunting except for echoing others thoughts

 

 

 

out of kay and Hallia, Hallias town cred for no ninja hammer weighs more

 

so in order of likely scum   thane > kay > Hallia

 

 

i'm all in on this reason and my picks are Thane & Kay for today and tomorrow respectively

[Leelou]

Kaylee's lists and votes: 

 

She is always following someone around and unvoting as soon as she is questioned or the flow of the game goes elsewhere...

 

 

 

 

 

 

So I've been rereading the first couple of pages. And I'm getting a really eerie feeling from Sili.

 

I think Nyn and Hallia have the largest town/scum range overlap. I might have picked them.

Slip? There's a clear distinction between discussing who you'd choose if...... this sentence is pretty awful.

so commonly held weaker players should get less attention today (i.e. me and dice) since our rand chance is 1 in 13.

I think this approach puts the most pressure on people like nyn, but I think that's for the best. We just need to be cognissant that individuals who are good at being scum are more likely to be scum in this set up. Though this isn't to say we don't take out scummy players if we spot any.

Advocates he and dice should get less attention today.

mafia will prefer not to pick Thane or me, because there is a chance we die early and there are no replacements.

Now suddenly it's him and Thane that would be a less desirable pick.

Bolded for edification because I don't want to be represented as saying something I haven't. I never at all advocate giving anybody a pass. If dice comes in and lurks in a significant way, I'm all for lynching him. But conversely, since players here want (I emphasize want) to pick players like nyn, I'll be paying close attention to what they say because in that direction there is more scum more often to be found than in other directions.

This is like the third time Sili mentions me. Makes me think he either has a crush on me or I make him nervous. Maybe both.

Weaker players are still lynched if they're made scum, regardless of wifom. You understand what I mean? Because it doesn't matter as long as we have content to work with. If they're actually scummy, and not in the faux way thane or pral are, then they're scum and there's no getting around that. We'll notice them one way or another and so picking weak players is sub-optimal.

Basically, put another way, in what world does mafia let wifom level determine their picks? How is it pure variance?   The best play is to play the odds and pick the strongest player you can that won't be lynched because they're 'too' strong to ignore. For us it's a way of narrowing the field, because the obvious players we can lynch just at a glance, whereas stronger players who people want to pick are harder to read.

Again saying that this notion helps narrow down the field.

Though it is also true I can't picture myself being picked by anybody here so I dunno, but I don't think I was rand to be mafia this game.

Prolly the post of his I like least. First of all he was just picked to be recruited in the last game. Secondly.... he's spent up until now trying to advocate a tactic for PoE that involves leaving him be for the day and going after 'strong' players. And now he interjects how he can't picture being picked by anybody. Seems self conscious.

 

So, yeah, it's me. I'm here, and i'll add my little thought:

I feel that the first wolf picked one person they can easily distance themselves from, and one they hold a bit closer. Now, good players know how to mask that, so let's play and find out who are the wolves and get them *nod*



@mods: really like the opening posts, adds good plavor to the game 

You have 3 pages to work with. What are your thoughts?

I don't care for this post much either. He's coming down on Thane for not having any thoughts after 3 pages of content... but what has Sili really done in the sense of reading people? nada. He spent the entire time with the picking discussion mambo jambo.

 

Well, it's two pages, and one is yours (in postcount)

votes aren't that serious, after all, the locations are merely flavor. You seem to be wanting to figure out who the bad guys are, but let's just play and find out, no? It's still early D1, and with the few comments made, it'd be hard to single out a few players.

Treat everybody as scum for now.

13 of 40 posts are mine, so by no means is my content the only substantial kind. Though, to each their own pace I guess.

What do you mean when you say 'votes aren't serious'? I think those made are obviously fluff, so I don't understand why you bring it up.

Yes, I am anxious to figure the game out. What I was looking for from you was a deeper understanding to show you're committed to the hunt. Telling me I seem to be looking for bad guys when a quarter of the thread is me doesn't actually help.

The comments made, while few, are mostly very dense. I think one could make reads from them if they wanted to.

Why are we treating everybody as scum, and not villagers, when villagers are 10/13 of the thread?

Again... lecturing Thane about something he hasn't done himself up until that point.

I don't know. There's a distinction between firing up a discussion about this to kick start the game..... than what I feel he was actually doing. He was fully advocating this tactic, not just discussing it. He might have tried to backtrack somewhat from it later on, but it doesn't change what he actually said. Which was leaving him be for now to fry the bigger fish. I also find it a bit odd that he's referring to himself as a weak player.

Well, for me, it's optimal because I'm confident in my ability to read individuals if I'm putting in the work.

Does this sound like someone who considers himself a weak player? Cause he sounds pretty confident in his capabilities. Just as much as he has in previous games.

While Sili is scummy in either alignment, I'm getting the feeling that the way he went about this "discussion" is iffy. So I'm going with my gut.


[v]Sili[/v]

You may be onto something. I didn't notice before the contradiction. I'd like to add pressure here.

[v]Sili [/v]

 

 

Until it was pointed out I didn't notice how he called himself weak, and then he says something about being able to make strong reads on people. That contradicts so I wanted to add a pressure vote. I was wanting to see how he responded. With his recent posts I think he's sounding better. More genuine.

[unvote/]

 

 

 

1. Verb: Town. He's making good points and coming across as town to me.

2. Sili: Null to scum. I have a hard time reading him. His frustration seems genuine. His read posts had Hally and Crush at > 75% town when they have little to no content at the time. I had unvoted because of his response and frustration seeming real. after looking at him and ISO I have him as more null to possible scum.

3. Thane: Null. His frieds list is mostly a summary. He then list tops come reads but I didn't see a reason for them.

4. Hally: Null. Sounding better with her catch up posts, but waiting to hear more from her. Not sure how I feel about her vote on Nolder yet.

5. Nolder: Null town. I was getting a town read on him. I don't understand his comment on Verbal saying he's the top of his game and yet he's going to keep his eye on him. As Nyn pointed out some of his reads were unclear. Need him to clarify.

6. Tina: Town. Town feel to her posts. She latched onto something that stood out to her, making read list and speaking her mind.

7. Crusher: Null. No real content to go off of.

8. Nyn: Town. Still getting town vibes. The way she's actively pointing things out she seems to be genuinely scum hunting.

9. Leelou: Unsure. I thought her reads list looks pretty good, but watching her interactions with Verbal. I tend to get a better read on her when she's interacting with him. His suspicions of her makes me want to wait to read her.


10. AJ: Town. Still getting town vibes. I like his interactions with Tina, the way he was asking her questions.

11. Dice: Null to scum. He's active yet not saying much. His joke vote felt awkward. Not so much the vote but his insisting it was a joke. I don't know how to describe it but it didn't feel natural.

12. Red: Scum lean. First the QT comment. That has been disproved. If you copy a quote, as he claims to have done, or if you copy from your notes then it shows the formatting. I've seen mislynches as a result. Secondly in your original thoughts you had Tina, Dice and Crusher were your top candidates. Roughly 2 hours later your reads list had Tina as null to town saying she wasn't scummy. You also listed Dice and Crusher as Null for not enough content. Why the change? You then vote Thane, which is fine as he was in your scum pile. Then post #194 you say Dice is firmly in your scum pile. You gave twins it seemed like you believe yet you didn't switch your vote. To me that pinged because half your reasons for voting Thane was for pressure yet Dice seems to be "firmly" in your scum pile. If that's true why not switch your vote to your stronger scum read?

[v]Red[/v]

 

 

 

Tina: as for Sili I'll copy from my reads post...2. Sili: Null to scum. I have a hard time reading him. His frustration seems genuine. His read posts had Hally and Crush at > 75% town when they have little to no content at the time. I had unvoted because of his response and frustration seeming real. after looking at him and ISO I have him as more null to possible scum.

I have a hard time reading him. I've explained why I unvoted it was the way he responded... Felt genuine but overall I'm not sure on him hence the null to scum.

 

 

 

 

i also want to point out something. i've only posted 2 lists. one on Page 6, and another on page 14

 

list so far

Town Lean
Verb
Nyn
Nol

all three's reaction to Sili's convo generation came off legit to me. so townie points to these guys

Null to Lean Town
AJ - good content but not good enough to go in the Town Lean pile. something about him is giving my gut the eeby jeebies and i cant put my finger on it tbh
Kay - tetl (too early to tell) but soulreading as town right now for meta reasons.
Tina - a little waffley on my initial town read on her ... i dislike the auto-clear Sili angle and reasons for doing so she's going, but its not coming off scummy


Null
Hallia
Dice
Crush

not enough content right now to get a good read on

Null to Scum (PoS - Pool of Suspects)
Sili Quirrels - initally had townie points for an attempt at legit game start ... but i really dislike what he was using to jump start the game and he's reacting very bad to pressure. i also think Big Game Hunting is tactless.
Thane Vakarian - he flippant response to D1, the way he's interacting with Sili, and most of his posts come off as appearing to be active without really doign anything.
Leelou - i dislike her putting Nol as town then backing off quick with a "nah i just skimmed lawl" when pressured on it


[v]Thane[/v] i want more pressure on the Thane Train. right now his posts comes off as the most scummy

 

Well, it's two pages, and one is yours (in postcount)

votes aren't that serious, after all, the locations are merely flavor. You seem to be wanting to figure out who the bad guys are, but let's just play and find out, no? It's still early D1, and with the few comments made, it'd be hard to single out a few players.

Treat everybody as scum for now.

votes are always serious. while the locations are flavor we're still trying to find scum. you seem content just to spam and not do any legit hunting. FoS to you. its not a PAFO type of thing. in order to find out we have to have legit convo, votes, pressure and soothing. what your advocating is a "sit back and let the scum win" sort of attitude.

when you made this there was plenty of content to wade through and start making reads off of. while i disagree with the content itself, it doesn't discount the reactions people had to said content and how they tried to use that content on thread.

slower pace admittedly is nice, indeed. And, as you said, some players still need to check in. Once everybody is in, the game can truely start 

the game doesn't start when everyone checks in, the game starts when the first player posts.

i really dislike your flippant approach to Day 1 convo

[unvote]

[v]Kay[/v]

Thane is being active now, unvoting him with the anticipation of actually reading his thoughts and cases on his suspects rather than a catch-up summary post.

can't ignore Kay's opportunistic vote, though i could switch to Leelou



New List

LawkClear

Verb
Nyn

Almost LawkClear

AJ

Null to Town

Nol

Null

Crusher
Hallia
Tina

Null to Scum

Sili
Thane

Scum Lean
Leelou
Dice
Kay

Almost LawkScum

Kay and Thane are insinuating that i've posted multiple list and am flipflopping on Tina. i had Tina in Null from the get go


re-examining Kay and Thane's vote reasons on me

on a more serious note:

Red: the fact that there's only 20 posts between a first and second list of suspects, i find that a very short time to change your mind or get better reads on people. It makes me suspicious, very suspicious. I think that one of those was just posted to put something out there.Your recent posts aren't too bad, but i'm going with my gut feeling that you're not trying to escape.

there was multiple pages of posts between my first and 2nd list. either you're skimming or just parroting off of Kay's vote on me to justify a SMA vote.

also following Kay's vote reason on me is a dangerous thing, see below for why

12. Red: Scum lean. First the QT comment. That has been disproved. If you copy a quote, as he claims to have done, or if you copy from your notes then it shows the formatting. I've seen mislynches as a result. Secondly in your original thoughts you had Tina, Dice and Crusher were your top candidates. Roughly 2 hours later your reads list had Tina as null to town saying she wasn't scummy. You also listed Dice and Crusher as Null for not enough content. Why the change? You then vote Thane, which is fine as he was in your scum pile. Then post #194 you say Dice is firmly in your scum pile. You gave twins it seemed like you believe yet you didn't switch your vote. To me that pinged because half your reasons for voting Thane was for pressure yet Dice seems to be "firmly" in your scum pile. If that's true why not switch your vote to your stronger scum read?

[v]Red[/v]

you're entire vote reason for me is fabricated. i thought you were questioning why i had Tina in my Null pile. turns out you're basing your pressure on me, based off an obvious joke post.

to the underlined, you seriously thought that this post was legit? xD

opportunistic scum is opportunsitic

I'm not scum. I was questioning why you changed your mind on Tina. Also the Dice thing. Didn't sit right. Now your more like your townish bulldog self on me. Makes me feel better about you honestly. I wasn't being opportunistic just made a reads list while re-reading Which took two hours to put together. I'm not a strong player. Just stating a fact.

[unvote]

 

 

 

I'd be willing to vote for Dice for being active yet not saying much. Less sure of Nol for his unclear reads list and since disappearing, willing to vote here as well. Still unsure on Lee and Verb, being a strong town read of mine, not trusting her makes me willing to vote here.

 

 

 

[v]Dice[/v]

 

 

 

[Leelou]

Continuation: 

 

 

 

 

 

I haven't had time to fu back through. I had Nyn, Verb and Tina as town. Still feeling that way. Not sure what to make of the AJ/Verb inaction so a little less sure on AJ.

Everyone else is an unknown. Nyn said she wasn't sure of me not sure who else she went after.

 

 

1. Verbal32 - Town

2. Sili Quirrels - not sure honestly keep going back and forth, will look at him more tomorrow night.

3. Thane Vakarian - an
other i need to look back on.

4. Hallia - Null to scum. Leaning scum from the EOD and lack of content. I know she's done that as town too though so hoping she comes back soon...

5. Nolder- another one I keep going back and forth on. Leaning town atm.

6. TinaHel- town lean

7. The Crusher- first game together so Unsure need to go back through.

9. Leelou- Leaning scum. Mostly has to do with my strong town read of Verb and his feelings on her tbh.

10. Kaylee

11. Andrej- feeling town but the exchange with Verbal has me questioning that...

13. Red2111- IDK. Really need to read back through. I liked her bulldog reaction on me. Made it fell like her town game but will read through again.

 

 

 

 

It's going to be Nolder, Leelou and Thane.

I would bet the house on that.

IF I'm wrong, I would retake a look at players like Kaylee or Red (although Red's newest post putting Nolder in the lead probably clears her), but knowing that this will make me sound conceited I really doubt that I'm mistaken with my reads.

Here's the thing, I've been playing today with the knowledge that Nolder is guilty.

I tracked him last Night and sure enough, he visited Nynaeve. Withstanding there being some kind of manipulation role, this is about as sure fire as it gets. I contemplated holding off on revealing since it seems Nolder might swing today as it were, but I still feel like this knowledge is important and should be shared in the event that I'm killed without revealing. I don't want my posts to be looked at in hindsight and for others to think I mean things I didn't when my role is revealed.

Presumably, I have went back and looked at various players' reads list and their interactions with my known guilty target and have kind of crunched the numbers a bit. Sorry that I had to string you along Sili, but I asked pointed questions at the beginning of this phase purposely to see where you would land irt Nolder. I feel reasonably safe seeing as how he focused his attention on you the most to keep from actually scum hunting that you are probably clear. I feel similarly about Hallia, not just because of their back and forth but because of some of the others things that she pointed out in her last posts that coincide with how I'm seeing the game. I'll pull quotes and what not to show what I'm talking about but based on the way Nolder and others have regarded each other and my own feelings on the player list I am about 92% confident that all the Mafia are in Nolder, Leelou & Thane.

Well this makes voting today easy.

[v]Nolder[/v]

 

 

 

I'd have to look back at Lee and Thane tonight when I have more time to do so. I know Thane doesn't have much. I also want to look at everyone I'm less sure of. It'll be night phase but at least it should help me make a better stand.

If Nol flips scum, as I'm expecting he will after AJ's reveal, then I think Sili is more likely town.

 

 

 

 

 

1. Verbal32 - Town

2. Sili Quirrels - not sure honestly keep going back and forth, will look at him more tomorrow night.

3. Thane Vakarian - an
other i need to look back on.

4. Hallia - Null to scum. Leaning scum from the EOD and lack of content. I know she's done that as town too though so hoping she comes back soon...

5. Nolder- another one I keep going back and forth on. Leaning town atm.

6. TinaHel- town lean

7. The Crusher- first game together so Unsure need to go back through.

9. Leelou- Leaning scum. Mostly has to do with my strong town read of Verb and his feelings on her tbh.

10. Kaylee

11. Andrej- feeling town but the exchange with Verbal has me questioning that...

13. Red2111- IDK. Really need to read back through. I liked her bulldog reaction on me. Made it fell like her town game but will read through again.

Quoting this for easy reach later when I can get on and look deeper.

Ok so now have Verb, Tina and AJ as town.

Hally I'm waiting to hear what she says but have her as null to scum atm.

Thane and Crusher I really need to look back at as they've not said much.

Red I'm feeling better about. Basically a weaker town lean but still thinking I was wrong on her before.

That leaves Sili and Leelou. I've been leaning scum on LeeLou for awhile now. Thinking i need to go back to look at her again.

As far as Sili I think his back and forth with Nol feels like him trying to put dirt on Sili but I could be wrong there. Will likely go back through his as well.

 

 

 

Looking back not much from Thane or Crusher.

Crusher gave some reads but that was D1. I'd like to hear what he thinks now. Null read for me.

Thane is Null to scum. Not a lot of content and had to be pushed for reads. I also can see the point AJ was making about a possible teammate of Nol's.

 

 

 

I agree about Leelou. She's one of my other scum reads and has been.

 

 

 

 

Kaylee if you're a villager you should help me lynch Leelou. She's calling you scum.

I know she is. I was about to do that next as it also evens the trains.

[v]Leelou[/v]

 

 

 

[unvote]

That actually makes a lot of sense Red. I was surprised Sili was the kill.

 

 

 

Meant willing to vote Thane.

 

 

 

[Red2111]

 

i got home 4.5 hours ago, but i've been busy with so many things, i'm still in work clothing. RL has me annoyed, and mafia has me frustrated..... i think i need some more beer today

 

 

@ Tina - i cant recall when Nol placed the vote on Hallia, i'd have to go back and look

 

 

@Red: honestly, you're tunneling on a townie? what will you do wheni flip town? who'll be next?

 

1st - i doubt you'll flip town, i've doubted it since D1.

 

2nd - if you read my posts then you know full well whose in my scum salad and who'll i'll be going at next

 

3rd - this feels like you've seen people jump off Leelous train after she asked that, so you went "hmmm wonder if it'll work for me"   the bad thing is with that, you've got too many independently scummy things against you for that ploy to work.  hence why

 

Thane > Leelou when it comes to Red's preferred lynch today

 

 

i'm still convinced Hallia is the way to go today, but, seeing nobody believes i'm town, it's hard to convince any of you to vote her. That's the feeling i have for the moment.

 

its not that we dont believe your town, its that you have yet to make a compelling enough case as to why we should vote Hallia after what Nol (a confirmed scum) did.

 

 

 

i'm still convinced Hallia is the way to go today, but, seeing nobody believes i'm town, it's hard to convince any of you to vote her. That's the feeling i have for the moment.

 

Explain why Hallia is scum to me.  Explain like I have just subbed into this game.

 

 

see, this is another thing thats not setting well with me on Thane.  he's not readily offering up info on why he has those reads; he has to have it dragged out of him.  like with his reads list on D1 and me asking him repeatedly about why he had those people as scum.

did it ever occur to you that i, in fact, might be busy?

 

 

we're all busy.  my school and work load doesn't exactly land for loads of free time.

 

if you can't post much then instead of wasting what few posts you have saying "sorry i'm busy", catch up and post content.

 

 

its not about how much you post, its about the content in your posts when you do post.

[Thane Vakarian]

Well then, i think it's time we see who's brave enough to vote, then.... i need 2 more votes.

 

oh, wait...

 

Unvote

 

[v]Thane Vakarian [/v]

 

i think we all know that i'm probably this days target, so... yeah. At least i had a chance to get my thoughts out there before i go.

[Thane Vakarian]

i'm not a wolf, which you will find out soon enough, and i regret not having had more time to really get into the game.

[Verbal32]

Red, why are you saying the Sili kill was a "flub"?  Scum might have thought he was Doc hinting, and assumed he'd be protecting AJ and shot him.

 

If you think about it like that, it was a very good NK, as it likely means AJ is completely unprotected.

 

 

Without a protection role, our Cop is vulnerable.

[Verbal32]

Well then, i think it's time we see who's brave enough to vote, then.... i need 2 more votes.

 

oh, wait...

 

Unvote

 

[v]Thane Vakarian [/v]

 

i think we all know that i'm probably this days target, so... yeah. At least i had a chance to get my thoughts out there before i go.

 

Don't do that.

[Thane Vakarian]

Verbal, i think we both know that it's the most likely outcome of this day.

 

I'm town in like... nobody's list.

[Leelou]

So, up until AJ said Nol was found visiting Nolder, Kay had Nolder as town and then hopped on the Nolder train seeing as that was the only thing to do. 

[Leelou]

Thane, giving up? 

[Kaylee]

 

 

 

Meant willing to vote Thane.

Kaylee still just going with the flow.

No I've had him as possible scum.

Do you have complete conviction on someone that you can follow through on and not follow the flow of the game?

I'm still leaning on you bring possible scum just less sure. Thane I've had as possible scum, yes it's been null to scum but still not town. Hally is the other one that hasn't sounded town to me.

 

I've been swayed a lot this game I admit.

 

I'd be willing to vote Leelou or a Thane.

 

Feeling more confident about Thane than Leelou.