[Advanced] The Scouring of the Shire - Game Over

[Yates]

Alright, I'm going to catch up tonight.

Looking forward to it.  Blow my mind.

[Zashara]

 

Arsis still hasn't really answered my questions. It seems like he's just regurgitating what Yates has posted (re: votes not looking good), and then ignoring the question I asked about the number of scum in the game. I've played games were it goes from 1/4 to 1/3 depending on the roles, which would be 3 or 4 total in this game. 

 

Arsis calling me "Zash the Stampede" cracked me up so much that I just couldn't really take him seriously anymore. I wasn't really following his posts before that either, since he didn't take back his suspicion of Yates until after I called him out on it. Saying Alanna and Krak are your top suspects isn't anything novel since quite a few people have been pointing at them. I understand gut feelings being wrong, but stuff like saying you'd vote for Crusher and Wombat goes a bit beyond that. I haven't played super close attention to the game (depression + wedding stuff + work), and I've got them marked as Town in my head. From what I gathered, Arsis is familiar with mafia, so him not remembering that kind of stuff is just weird.

 

 

If you read my posts it's safe to assume anyone with an IQ over 100 would be able to see that I'm operating under the assumption of 3 scum in the game. I don't think you have an IQ under 100. So, When you say that I didn't answer how many scum I think are in the game it makes me think you're lying to make me look bad. Why would you be lying to make me look bad? Because you're scum. That's my train of thought.

 

 

Dude, take it easy. There's no need to insult anyone's intelligence here. I'm not lying, you didn't answer my question directly. You implied that you think there are 3 scum, but that was before my question. Seriously, calm down, it's a freaking game.

 

I don't really have anything new to add. Operating on 5 hours of sleep isn't conducive to analysis. I've already laid out my reasons to be suspicious of Krak.

[Nolder]

Votecount

Arsis - Yates, Tina, Zashara (3)

Zashara - Arsis, Wombat (2)

 

 

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch. 

Deadline: Thursday, 9PM PST

 

[Arsis]

 

 

Arsis still hasn't really answered my questions. It seems like he's just regurgitating what Yates has posted (re: votes not looking good), and then ignoring the question I asked about the number of scum in the game. I've played games were it goes from 1/4 to 1/3 depending on the roles, which would be 3 or 4 total in this game. 

 

Arsis calling me "Zash the Stampede" cracked me up so much that I just couldn't really take him seriously anymore. I wasn't really following his posts before that either, since he didn't take back his suspicion of Yates until after I called him out on it. Saying Alanna and Krak are your top suspects isn't anything novel since quite a few people have been pointing at them. I understand gut feelings being wrong, but stuff like saying you'd vote for Crusher and Wombat goes a bit beyond that. I haven't played super close attention to the game (depression + wedding stuff + work), and I've got them marked as Town in my head. From what I gathered, Arsis is familiar with mafia, so him not remembering that kind of stuff is just weird.

 

 

If you read my posts it's safe to assume anyone with an IQ over 100 would be able to see that I'm operating under the assumption of 3 scum in the game. I don't think you have an IQ under 100. So, When you say that I didn't answer how many scum I think are in the game it makes me think you're lying to make me look bad. Why would you be lying to make me look bad? Because you're scum. That's my train of thought.

 

 

Dude, take it easy. There's no need to insult anyone's intelligence here. I'm not lying, you didn't answer my question directly. You implied that you think there are 3 scum, but that was before my question. Seriously, calm down, it's a freaking game.

 

I don't really have anything new to add. Operating on 5 hours of sleep isn't conducive to analysis. I've already laid out my reasons to be suspicious of Krak.

 

I apologize. I was going for funny. I didn't mean anything by it. I was also trying to say that I didn't think you were stupid. I had the opposite intention with my post. I was trying to say you were intentionally misrepping me. Again, I apologize I was in no way trying to insult you or imply anything insulting. I was trying to be funny and that never goes over well.

[Zashara]

Ah, yeah, I didn't pick up on it. I'm not entirely coherent today.

 

Right now I'm wondering how many people would be willing to switch to Krak or Alanna. Krak promised to post more tonight, but I could seriously get behind a vote for either of them.

[The Crusher]

Ok did not read everything yet because at i was at JN talking about the Patriots deflated balls all day.  I do have thoughts.  I will read and share tomorrow when I have my coffee.  I love you all.  

[Alanna]

Sorry guys, I have been sick with the flu. I will catch up and post tomorrow before deadline. I don't feel like I have a very good grasp on the game right now, so I will probably do some ISOs/rereads.

[The Crusher]

ok.  Went back and read some of the earlier stuff.  Did notice that both people that died had called Arsis out for scum.  Then died.  Could be a set up but Arsis has played scummy enough it makes more sense his scum team would do this than a scum team set him up.  Plus his lynch would by far give the most information.  Bout everyone in the game has had a n opinion on him.

 

vote Arsis

[Alanna]

I'm going to start rereading/catching up now. I really want to get a thorough grasp on the game so far, so it may take me a little while.

[Krakalakachkn]

I've been following this thread, but atm, I'm feeling like I've really got nothing much to contribute that hasn't already been said. Sili's comment about Krak burying his vote, then kinda taking it back and characterizing himself as "innocuous" rubbed me the wrong way. Red's playing very aggressive, and is driving conversation. Krak's lack of explanation for his vote bothers me. I'm for leaving Yates (and Arsis, though there are no votes on him obv) alone right now, and looking at them more after the night phase. So, [v]Sili[/v].

 

This came when Sili was tied at 2 votes with Yates. It was also with deadline approaching. I think this looks good for Zasha. Same for Womba who voted Sili a few posts later.

[Krakalakachkn]

Sorry I missed deadline yesterday - I don't really have an excuse, I just kind of, um, forgot lol. Not sure I would've placed a vote anyway, though, with what there was.

 

I haven't read the last page or so, but for now - Pral looks kinda bad right now for his first post, where it looks like he tried to nudge suspicion away from Sili. Slight town reads on Nyn, Red, Krak. 

 

I didn't really read Arsis's "soft claim" as such; it just felt like Arsis being contrary to Yates which, you know, not out of character for him. He's worth looking at for his soft defense of Sili though. 

 

I think the Tina-Red stuff is probably town-on-town, but still gonna keep an eye on Tina here.

 

Still don't like this post from Alanna. Nudge on Pral and combination defense and passive offense directed at Arsis. Complete waffle on Tina, looks like she wants to stay on Red's good side with that last comment.

[Krakalakachkn]

I still think Red was so certain about what Sili was planning because he was on his team. But, I wasn't really paying close attention last night. I just don't like Red so far.

First real post that bothers me from this guy.

[Krakalakachkn]

 

I´m not saying he is town or mafia because of it. I´m saying that it means nothing to me.

Side bar discussion: gun to the head [because it may be for all you know], am I Town or Scum? Forget my claim for a minute. Look at my play and the current game state and make a snap judgment.

 

I dislike Yates trying to make the conversation all about him.

 

 

He also gives Tina an out, allowing her to regain her footing.

[Krakalakachkn]

I think it's likely the mafia were on Yates or inactive on D1.  Of course, most of the game was inactive so that doesn't necessarily mean much.  I'd say I favor a Pral lynch today as I thought his Krak vote was kinda crappy on D1 and I haven't liked his posts since.  As for the people who voted Yates, I would say I'm null on Arsis and have a town lean on Krak.  I didn't particularly like Krak's 3rd party spec thing, but I thought it could be a clumsy game start attempt and I liked a lot of the rest of his content.  Now Krak says he had reasons, so idk what to think of that.  FWIW Krak, I think that flavor-wise, your theory would make sense, but I don't really see 3rd party speculation as pro-town this early.  Regarding Arsis, he's been erratic, irascible, and makes very little sense to me so far, which is pretty much how he has behaved in every game I've played with him, so I'd say he's null at this point.  I don't like his vote on Yates, but I could totally see him doing it as town.

 

[v]Pral[/v]

I'm going to bring this up again and I might pay for it dearly, but I more or less misspoke in my original post on the matter. What I wanted to say was alternate win scenario.

[Alanna]

Just finished rereading Day 1, and some of my earlier thoughts have changed. Here's what I've got so far:

 

Some of Krak's early posts look fishy to me, specifically post #46, in which he echoes Wombat's comment about Red's hedging on Yates:

 

 

Yeah, what's the deal?

 

 

I don't know that I'd call it hedging, but isn't that the whole point of Yates?  Why the need to say that on thread?

 

 

Seems off to me for Krak to question Red simply mentioning Yates. Yates made a claim, she responded to it.

 

Then this post also:

 

 

 

no easy scum leans yet. kind of concerned krak voted me to bury his vote but i'll need more content

 

I like that you've got yourself a theory, but isn't it a little too soon to be voicing it aloud?

 

 

This Sili/Krak interaction looks a bit like scum poking at each other to distance themselves a bit (I feel like "disance" is not quite the right word here, but I can't think of a better term). Again, why is Krak questioning people trying to get gameplay started? (Even if Sili was scum.)

 

I know others have cited Krak's vote on Yates as scummy, but I have to confess that I still don't really see that, and in fact, is one of the main reasons I had him as a town read before. I also don't necessarily find his asking about Grima's possible role scummy, but I really don't get why he asked that, either. Seems weird.

 

Arsis' Day 1 play seems mostly null to town for me. I'll have to see if that changes, as I think it was mostly his Night 1 content that looked scummy to me before. I don't find his "defense" of Sili as scummy on a reread, it was really just one post in which he said that Sili looked like Sili. Given how easy it is to mislynch Sili, I can see his being cautious there. 

 

I think Krak just said this, but Zashara's vote on Sili Day 1 looks very good for her, as Sili was tied at 2 votes there and it was nearing deadline. Her post there just sounded townish too.

 

Tina's play early Day 1 still looks like she's grasping at straws (about Red not playing the bulldog), but her explanations later about trying to get some gameplay going sound honest and looks townie for her. 

 

Crusher's thoughts Day 1 mostly jived with mine, and he also voted Sili near deadline, so leaning town on him.

[Alanna]

 

Sorry I missed deadline yesterday - I don't really have an excuse, I just kind of, um, forgot lol. Not sure I would've placed a vote anyway, though, with what there was.

 

I haven't read the last page or so, but for now - Pral looks kinda bad right now for his first post, where it looks like he tried to nudge suspicion away from Sili. Slight town reads on Nyn, Red, Krak. 

 

I didn't really read Arsis's "soft claim" as such; it just felt like Arsis being contrary to Yates which, you know, not out of character for him. He's worth looking at for his soft defense of Sili though. 

 

I think the Tina-Red stuff is probably town-on-town, but still gonna keep an eye on Tina here.

 

Still don't like this post from Alanna. Nudge on Pral and combination defense and passive offense directed at Arsis. Complete waffle on Tina, looks like she wants to stay on Red's good side with that last comment.

 

 

I feel that nudging/waffling/looking from opposite angles is not uncommon for me, regardless of alignment. Especially when I'm only giving scant attention to the game, which, unfortunately, I was at the time.

[Krakalakachkn]

More than I've done today, yes. I'm conflicted on you. Hence my question. I don't understand why you have been pushing on Yates since very near the beginning. Meta-wise, he is null to me atm. Circumstance-wise, he is town imo given that he was the main competing train to Sili.

You don't think there's a chance that Yates was attempting to get lynched in Sili's stead? Or that scum decided just to let it be a toss-up?

[Krakalakachkn]

^I'm going to fix that formatting.

[Krakalakachkn]

Zashara's D1 looks to me like either a failed late bus or an orchestrated double-move trying to kill Sili's train.  Her D2 actually looks ok, but I don't get the Krak stuff.  Her D3 push on Arsis is bad imo.

 

I feel like Alanna should have come up with a post that has me nodding my head vigorously by now.

 

This is definitely a possibility.

[Krakalakachkn]

Caught up.

 

Vote Alanna

[Alanna]

Read through Night 1. Still thinking Arsis might actually be town here. At first glance, he looks bad through Red's case against him, but rereading, I found her case a bit faulty. Some of the things she mentioned are just typical Arsis to me (like that he was being antagonistic), and I feel she was also overstating her case a bit, which made him look worse than he was. For example, she said he defended Sili "multiple times" Day 1, but having just reread, it was only once or twice.

 

The weirdest thing from Arsis was that he said he didn't believe Sili's claim, but didn't think that was reason to vote him, especially on Day 1. I completely disagree, I think on Day 1, when you don't have a lot to go on and you outright don't believe a claim, that would be a good reason to vote someone. However, later he clarified that he never votes based on claims and treats them all as null. I haven't played with him enough to know if this is typically true for him, but given a recent game where everyone and their mother was claiming something and it distracted from a lot of gameplay (Marlfox), his stance doesn't really surprise me, either.

 

Continuing with Day 2 now, be back with more thoughts.

[Alanna]

 

Zashara's D1 looks to me like either a failed late bus or an orchestrated double-move trying to kill Sili's train.  Her D2 actually looks ok, but I don't get the Krak stuff.  Her D3 push on Arsis is bad imo.

 

I feel like Alanna should have come up with a post that has me nodding my head vigorously by now.

 

This is definitely a possibility.

 

 

I don't get this. Sili was tied with someone (can't remember who) at 2 votes when Zashara voted. Why would she bus? Unless they were trying to pull something like a Kivam gambit, but I don't see Sili agreeing to that. He didn't want to do any bus gambits with me when we were mafia together, even though I kept pushing it.

[Alanna]

Oh, and i forgot mention, I skimmed over a lot of the Tina-Red interaction Night 1 because tl;dr, but will probably take a closer look at it later if I feel I need a better read on Tina.

[Yates]

I dislike Yates trying to make the conversation all about him.

 

He also gives Tina an out, allowing her to regain her footing.

Like it or dislike it; it doesn't matter. I saw something worth pursuing and I pursued it. What's troubling to me is that you quoted a post that quite obviously contradicts your claimed conclusion. You are claiming I gave Tina an out? How is this? You quoted me forcing Tina to come off the fence and take a stance. Sure, I made her come off the fence with regards to me but the fact that it had to do with me isn't the relevant part. I was the talk of the day at the time and stuff had gone down that should have given her more information for providing a better informed read. I put her on the spot and challenged her read progression - which is pretty much the opposite of giving her an out.

[Krakalakachkn]

Off Red