[Basic]: Be Nice Mafia

[BFG]

Catching up now but needed to make sure this was covered...

 

Vig/Doc/Cop?

No way. I don't think 5/8 roles are going to be PR/Scum. Plus, I would never put vig in an 8 person game. Mislynch and Town shot = game over on N1. I, personally, wouldn't go through the hassle of designing a game and sitting in a queue for half a year knowing it could all be over in one night. The villagers would have pitch forks!

 

I'm asking who she'd vig/cop/doc...

 

But you're wrong about numbers on vig.

 

Vig is + for town on an even numbers game. In this case, assuming worst case scenarios

 

Start Day 1 6v2, lynch town, nightkill and a vig that hits town leads to 3v2 start Day 2 which is generally better than 4v2. If they hit mafia then Day 2 starts 4v1 and they've 'bought' town a possible mislynch.

 

You make me very nervous when you make errors like this.

[BFG]

Cool, my posts are out of sync

[BFG]

Or it's just my server going nuts

[Cass]

 

Can you explain??

Not to speak for Clov but I'm going to because I almost made the same post. Using your example; we are assuming there are 2 scum in 5 slots. That's a 40% chance of hitting scum discounting game play. Another way of looking at it is that there's a 60% chance of hitting Town. If we *do* hit Town, we are in MYLO on DAY 2 with, in theory, only 1 investigation result. If that result is an innocent? We're pretty much screwed.

 

The only reason I didn't bring this up is because we are almost equally screwed if scum guess right and kill the cop tonight since our doc [assuming we have a protective role] has their worst chance of protecting the cop on N1. But, of course, the cop is also more likely to investigate the person we would have lynched and if that person is scum, we bought scum an extra night.

 

But as I think it through further, scum have in theory a 2/6 chance of killing a Town PR if we no lynch and a 2/5 chance of killing a Town PR if we mislynch [assuming we don't mislynch a PR!].

 

I'm having a de ja vu moment discussing optimal play...

 

 

Still would've liked to have seen Clov's answer/explanation for this/his apparent NL preference over potentially lynching scum...

[BFG]

We are at L-1 for those of you keeping score back home.

 

@Tress, BFG, Cass - will any of you be on in about 5 hours to vote No Lynch so we can continue our D1 conversation? I'm leaving in about an hour. If I haven't seen anything, I'll hammer.

I'm here but not convinced by No Lynch /shrug but it's better than random

[Songstress]

Oh, bother.  Stomach bug isn't done with me yet.  

[Thane Vakarian]

depending on what happens N1.... i'm leaning Clov/Yates scum for the moment.... we'll see....

[Cass]

 

Sili had just town read everyone except Jmm so I knew his top mafia candidate, etc?.. I tend to get suspicious of all town lists or all mafia lists (although I've gone through games as town finding it hard to find mafia, although I generally acknowledge the issue). Given that he's been stating 2 mafia then he'd have to change his mind on at least one person. Tinfoil - a future change of opinion.

 

The blue - not exactly a concern, just a point I find interesting given that I think it's easier to look for inconsistencies/off tone and find Scum than it is to look for things and find/clear true Town.

[BFG]

 

Catching up now but needed to make sure this was covered...

 

 

Vig/Doc/Cop?

No way. I don't think 5/8 roles are going to be PR/Scum. Plus, I would never put vig in an 8 person game. Mislynch and Town shot = game over on N1. I, personally, wouldn't go through the hassle of designing a game and sitting in a queue for half a year knowing it could all be over in one night. The villagers would have pitch forks!

 

I'm asking who she'd vig/cop/doc...

 

But you're wrong about numbers on vig.

 

Vig is + for town on an even numbers game. In this case, assuming worst case scenarios

 

Start Day 1 6v2, lynch town, nightkill and a vig that hits town leads to 3v2 start Day 2 which is generally better than 4v2. If they hit mafia then Day 2 starts 4v1 and they've 'bought' town a possible mislynch.

 

You make me very nervous when you make errors like this.

 

Technically vig could hit another town PR I guess.

[Cass]

Town:

 

me - double-checked my pm. it's confirmed.

 

Clov - demonstrates consistent wherewithal and attention to detail. He's proactive, and shows a healthy level of paranoia for someone of his personality type (far as I can figure).

 

Cass - emulates strong town tinfoily behavior to a tee.

 

Bfg - consistent skepticism, above board enthusiasm, depth of insight. if she continues in a believable way i'll continue to think she's town until my poe get's the better of me.

 

Thane - i reread his posts and definitely get a town vibe, but it's hard to put a finger on why. i guess maybe he's not pushing the angles that would be +ev for scum, his tone is impulsive, and he's a little scatter-brained.

 

Tress - I remember a little of her meta and recall in a cursory way her tone and the types of points she brought up last game. My gut isn't finding any inconsistency to latch onto so I'm putting her here.

 

 

Poe

 

sili - 100% (cannot express this enough)

cass - 90%

thane - 88%

clov - 88%

bfg - 80%

tress - 80%

 

Colored List

 

Sili

Cass

Thane

Clov

Bfg

Tress

Yates

Jmm

 

Ways to parse the group: Cass, Thane, and Clov I consider loose character reads. Yates - I expect impact from his town game, but he never builds a case I think. e.g. He hasn't contributed to my wagon but does nudge it along by insinuating scum/scum partners for me. I regard his content as lacking overall. Take for instance his tinfoil above? Last page I declared bfg a scum lean in one of my  opening posts and he never comments on it.

 

Jmm is ... so apathetic... that I can't even express how... i kind of hope i'm wrong actually, or maybe someone could correct me if i am. Jmm isn't paranoid, scatter-brained, or skeptical, nor is he enthusiastic, run&gun, or tunneling anyone. He is completely apathetic and hasn't offered the thread an iota of actual game content to demonstrate he's read it in any detail. The small points, his posture-driven opening and weird apathy towards my gameplay is just icing on the cake at this point - the problem has become more fundamental: all but two players in this roster are actively hunting for scum and he isn't one of them.

 

Missed this before.

 

Did you mean to say 'emulates' here - as in 'copy/reproduce' (how I understand the word)?

 

Again I don't like the saying 'I have her as Town' and then suggesting 'but she may not actually be Town' thing.

No, I am not over this particular barb/point yet, thanks Darthe/Kiv/previous scum   

 

 

Also, not sure it really matters, but can you explain the differing orders for certain players in your 'Town' lists? (eg. first para has Clov directly after you, the others have him 4th one down?)

[Cass]

meh, it's fine. it'll be a pain responding to your wots in detail but i respect the effort you put in.

 

 

i am working on replying to the 6 points right now and trying to remember exactly when i said clov was a villager.  i certainly don't push him very hard.

 

 

Here:

 

I dont think i would read me as a wolf if i knew me so i dont see what u see tress.

Current reads are

Yates town
Clov town
Cass town
Tress town
Bfg town

Jmm scum.

Expect me to itterate heavily in the background. Sometimes ppl find it fishy that i nudge and swap targets but i like to give reads breathing room. It also creates content. If something is important ill usually elaborate to persuade people

 

And IMO here:

Nah, Clov's responses were okay.  It was likely v/v violence.

 

[BFG]

Just a general concern that there are a lot of assumptions being made regarding numbers/roles/outcomes for why no lynch is the best option. No lynch removes the advantages a possible vig give us, the benefits of a possible doc protect, assuming no restrictions on a possible cop role etc, etc, etc...

 

 

 

Plus recently every game I've made assumptions I've been horrendously wrong :/

 

 

[Thane Vakarian]

well.... i'm down to two suspects in my head, but i don't know if we can reach majority to lynch either one of them. If we don't reach majority, someone would be modkilled. It's my dilemma for the moment

[BFG]

 

Sili had just town read everyone except Jmm so I knew his top mafia candidate, etc?.. I tend to get suspicious of all town lists or all mafia lists (although I've gone through games as town finding it hard to find mafia, although I generally acknowledge the issue). Given that he's been stating 2 mafia then he'd have to change his mind on at least one person. Tinfoil - a future change of opinion.

The blue - not exactly a concern, just a point I find interesting given that I think it's easier to look for inconsistencies/off tone and find Scum than it is to look for things and find/clear true Town.

 

I try to start with everybody neutral and give +/- points accordingly, I assign some things higher value than others. There are some exceptional town finders on this site, although Cory (whose arguably the best doesn't play here much anymore). And POE is a very valuable tool. On the other hand there are some other players whose best advice is lynch the scummiest player. Both techniques work well.

[Cass]

 

 

lol ya, fucking vig me.

 

 

Sili, I swear, if you actually are Town and I'm tinfoiling, it's posts like this which mean I'm never going to understand you.

 

I'm taking a break for an hour or so, fighting off a headache.

 

probably not. it's okay because i understand you well enough.

 

 

don't feel guilty when i flip town btw. tunneling happens. i tunneled a lot of people i didn't know how to read too.

 

 

I have to admit, even though I'm still reading you as scummy, these pulled at my heartstrings. For a second, before my gut/Tinfoil caught back up  

But ftr, if you're Town I will definitely feel guilty/freak out/give up ever trying to understand you...

[BFG]

Thane talk to me. Who would you cop/vig/doc?

[BFG]

Starting to reread

[Thane Vakarian]

cop yates, vig clov, doc jmm

 

That's what my gut tells me.

[Thane Vakarian]

in a game this small, i'm just deleting people off my scum list when i think they are town.

 

Thane: town, i know

Cass: playing like i've seen her do before, and inthat game, she was town. I doubt she would be a wolf here.

jmm: hinted at town PR, so i'm going to buy it for now.

Sili: looked bad at the beginning, but he improved his game the past 24 hours.

Tress: feels more townie than wolfie to me, though i'd wish her stomach bug would go away so she'd be in here more.

BFG: plays well, is present a lot, reacts to posts. For me, that feels like town BFG

 

that leaves 2: Yates and Clov.

[BFG]

Can you explain your read on Clov and Yates?

[BFG]

Or is it literally POE? In which case can you explain Tress any more?

[Thane Vakarian]

It's basically POE. Tress has been feeling ok since start of the game. She could have me completely fooled, but i doubt she's a wolf in this game. Her posts looked well formulated early game.

[Clovdyx]

 

Ok, I'm back and have read to here. Tbh I'm now feeling a little behind and I don't like it. (I thought I was doing pretty ok until yesterday, but I skip one all-nighter and now I have 5 new pages plus the stuff I didn't get to to address. Love my Aussie timezone    ).

 

I intend to go back and get stuck into the specifics but Clov, if you're still here I'm a little confused about your last post and since it relates to vote/not vote and I'm voting I'd really like to have as much time as possible to understand your 'logic' before the EoD.

 

 

[v]No Lynch[/v]

 

 

By my math, we have about 18 hours left and need 5 votes of 8 on one target or it goes random.  I think Cass is definitely town, and I still like Yates to be town.  Between them and myself, RNGesus has about a 40% chance of hitting someone I'm not cool lynching.  Not great odds.

 

Also think NL should give us an extra day phase.  If there's only one kill a night - highly likely given the game size -, then a mislynch today and tomorrow (coupled with a successful kill each night) seals it following N2.  No Lynch makes the earliest loss D3.

 

 

I see the logic with a NL giving us an extra day phase, but as far as I see it, if we all vote a majority and can successfully lynch a wilf, then we'll be significantly in the lead. Wouldn't this be the best possible outcome for Town?

 

I don't understand your "between them and myself.... not great odds" thing - if you're saying Yates, yourself and I are the three people you're 'not cool' lynching, then we make up 3/8 players. By default then, that suggests that you would be 'cool' with a lynch against the remaining 5/8 players.  That seems like pretty good odds to me, and I don't understand why the preferred option wouldn't be to hunt harder and convince us to lynch one of your preferred suspects.  I had you down as being most openly 'suspicious' of Sili and BFG at this point (and at one point even saying you found Sili even worse than before).

 

I find it a bit concerning that you come up with/present decent points against 'suspicious' players, but then offer the suggestion that we all choose not to act. Has something changed in your opinion of those players to this point? My concern is that you may be stalling because you're trying to protect someone you think we'll lynch. In my mind this is particularly pertinent, again, to the potential link between you and Sili. Can you explain??

 

 

 

 

PS - completely irrelevant, but notice the emoticon?? Do you?? I have internet access on a computer!!

Yey for hubby hooking up a hotspot- Yey!!                             

 

 

 

My quote in blue refers to RNG - rules state that failure to reach a majority will result in a random player being killed.  With only one vote on the board and the sporadic activity the game had, I'm not sure we can swing a lynch in 18 hours (especially knowing how weekends on DM go).

 

Bold - Well, yeah, that's kind of how the game works.  Based on when I made that post, I didn't like our chances to do so.  I wouldn't give my strongest read (Sili) much more than a random shot...say, 30%?  I was leaning towards BFG based on her asking about Sili tinfoiling but her answers to my questions were reasonable enough and she seemed to handle the pressure well (didn't panic, didn't dodge it).

 

With the above said, I'd still rather lynch than let it go random. I want people responsible for their wagons. I think Clov is forgetting someone dies if we no lynch.

 

 

I think Clov is forgetting someone dies if we no lynch.

Actually, I may be wrong on this. I forgot Tina said no lynch is allowed but I'm not sure if that means no lynch counts as a majority "lynch" or if it just means we didn't reach a majority lynch and thus someone gets randomed.

@Moddess - Halp?

 

 

You are wrong on this.  I'm quite certain she won't confirm this conversation (as mod, I wouldn't either), the reason she specified that in thread is because I sent her a PM early into the phase asking if NLing was allowed.  In most basic games, you want an odd number of players so that the games ends due to a lynch...even number of players tends to end the game with a NK.  

 

From the rules - "The reason she specified that in thread is because I sent her a PM early into the phase asking if NLing was allowed."

 

In regards to the post I didn't quote, you're right that them a cop would be bad, but we'd still be in a better position than we are now.  If we go for a lynch today, it's based solely off the information we have right now.  No result being posted means the same thing, but we get another 72 or so hours of discussion to combine with it, and the NK victim means one less player for everybody to focus on.  

[Cass]

Ok, I've re-read and re-read and things are going around in circles in my head. I'm crazy-paranoid that I might be tinfoil-tunneling on Sili here, but my gut's still not happy so *clutches tinfoil* I'm going to stick to my guns in case re-reading of WoTs changes people's minds and we actually pull off a majority lynch.

 

I still feel that's the best way to go here. I don't like the idea of the kill going random and I do understand the logic behind NL but only if we really can't manage to come to an agreement on a lynch.

 

At this point, my feels list looks much the same as before.

 

Sili - Still my top pick for scum, despite 'improved' postings. Gut, tone, inconsistencies.

 

Clov - Regardless of his alignment, I really like the way Clov posts most of the time. His points usually interesting and are made with logic I can follow/understand, and this looks good for obvious reasons. I'm still slightly uneasy about my gut feels on him and his interactions with Sili/myself at the beginning of the game and the possibility that he's a wolf. Some of his 'answers' 'miss' things in a way that is potentially important, and I'm still waiting on an answer as to why it would be a better  idea to vote NL when you reportedly had people you were considering scum.

 

Yates - Has valid points on some things but the buddying vibe is still disconcerting (both with myself and with others), I'm still not sure I like/believe the 'answers' he gave me to my questions and I'm wary of the fact I know he can play a very competent scum. That said, I think I'm prone to think him scummy because of our interactions in game 1. I'm also probably likely to be afraid of getting duped by him since last time I pretty much had him in my clutches and then completely let him off the hook.

 

Thane - Still matches me in top feels for scum. Is playing slightly different from the way I interpreted him in the previous game (where he was Town). Needs re-read. Null for now.

 

BFG- Is growing in my concern pile, actually. Partly the interactions with Sili (highlighted by Clov funnily enough) and her defense of him to me ('I have him as Town but he's doing things that I usually consider Scum'), partly the fact that she's asked twice now for people's opinions on cop/vig/doc actions. Nevertheless, she's interactive, answering/asking questions and her tone reads generally clean to me for now.

 

Jmm - Don't personally like the 'style' he's chosen to play but he reads mostly clean so far. Have concerns about his play-style being similar to lurking/more beneficial to Scum, but not much that jumps out other than his concern over tunneling-Sili-in-a-game-where-he-was-scum-thing. Very wary null for now.

 

Tress - My most 'townish' read at the moment, as much as I'm loath to trust that anyone's town.

 

 

There. In a nutshell that's it.

 

*bites nails*

[Songstress]

Cass, I'm not sure whether Clov's last post was while you were writing your last post, but I feel like he's put some effort into explaining why he was suggesting no lynch instead of lynching his top scum suspect.

 

There were several people kicking Sili around as a top suspect, but I don't believe at this point there's support for 5 votes - Sili certainly won't self-vote, BFG and jmm have him as solid town, and Thane also has him listed in his town POE.

 

With jmm's ... hinting... ... he's unlikely to gain support for 5 votes either, despite the number of people who are uncomfortable with his play.

 

I think no lynch is going to be our best option to avoid a random lynch TBH.