[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[Songstress]

I'm just gonna apologize, because I had the best of intentions when signing up for this game, and on Friday night when announcing my plan to re-read.

 

I was hoping my doctor's appointment on Monday would provide some answers as to why I've felt like absolute crap for the past month and a half, and I'd be well on the way to feeling better by now, but all my bloodwork came back as normal, and still I spent a good chunk of the day yesterday and most of today feeling fatigued and foggy in the head. 

 

I was about at the point of messaging Tommy to request a replacement at 2:30 this morning but I hate to do that to him, and to the rest of you.  I'm going to stay current and try to be relevant, but I understand a bunch of you are suspicious at this point.  Someone wants to shoot me when we get to night phase, I won't complain, but I'd rather not spend the rest of the day phase having to defend myself about feeling like crap.  I've made a serious effort to leave my emo out of the game this time around, unlike the last couple.  

 

I didn't get very far in my notes, unfortunately.  I was particularly keeping an eye on Verb and Barm, after reading Nyn's ISOs, and knowing Leelou's flip does make VerBarm's interactions with her D1 look pretty sketchy.  I still like Nyn for town this game so far.

 

I'm feeling unfocused at the moment but happy enough to respond on specifics if someone wants me to take a position.  I just don't have the mental energy to do a big picture deal tonight. 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:42 AM, Andrej said:

Also killing inactive players early on is generally a GOOD thing. Especially in recent history of DMafia where wolf teams just allow TvT violence to destroy the game so they can skate to an easy Lylo victory. I would say a high % of times low volume = wolf

 

In short, if you aren't going to play I would rather you die because 1) you aren't helping Town and 2) you could always be scum lurking. As a player I would prefer to get bested in a ML situation from a competent and talented wolf than be forced to pick among question marks at Lylo because players don't commit or are too shy/scared to post in games.

 

I agree with this as a matter of general strategy.  In fact, I'd be willing to contemplate a chinese fire drill on either Krak or Halia if they don't start posting more content between now and EOD

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 11:54 AM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

From a numbers perspective, lynching inactives is far more likely to end badly for the town. 

 

RL happens and no on can control that. But If a player ain't shown' up to play, they just need to be replaced.

 

Not when done early, and announced; early on the town can afford a mislynch or two, and if it forces others to be more active, that's more content to use to catch scum.  I agree if someone has a RL issue that makes them inactive for a period of time, that's different.  But lurkers?  Yeah, I'd say town better kill it with fire early or risk dying in a fire late.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 12:15 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 12:00 PM, Nynaeve said:

Halli just got back from a Disney trip. I messaged her yesterday cause I'm co-mod in another game she's in. Anyways she should resurface today.

 

I'm never really for inactive lynches unless we have zero direction. Low info lynches and it's not a valid reason. In Halli's case it sucks that she didn't drop a line about not being around in any of the games she was in. And yet if she was scum I tend to believe she'd be more likely to provide a reason if she wasn't gonna be around. To avoid attention.

 

As for Krak. Aside from Discworld where he changed his playstyle completly (imo), in all other games I've played with him he's been a low poster he's a student and he typically doesn't have a lot of free time. Now obviously it would be fun if everyone posted sufficiently (under my standards) but I'm not gonna go into a play style discussion. Out of my interaction with Krak I get a light town lean. I think we butted heads and he dropped a reactionary vote because he obviously doesnt get women (no one really does, amirite? xD).

 

Anyways yeah. I'm not switching to blindlynching inactives unless it's apparent to me that they are coasting and it's not just play style and RL.

 

I read this in a literal sense and laughed. 

 

 

I don't know that I necessarily want to lynch inactives.  But I sure as hell want to pressure them into becoming active (and if the prospect of being hanged doesn't concentrate the mind admirably ... well, that's a problem in and of itself)

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:14 PM, csarmi said:

Also in a game with 4 shots per day I'd be choosing BPV as SK 100% of the time and play pro-town.

 

Not me, but maybe that's because I'm used to being viewed much more often than NKd

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:19 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 12:59 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:06 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:04 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat....

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed. Unlikely to be a bus move imo. Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

Don't know that I agree with this, though that may be because you know it isn't true for me when I'm scum. But I like this post.

Sacrificing either of the vigs is madness (you never wanna lose a kill as Mafia unless you have a very good reason to - nope gaining some town cred isn't enough especially not on DM where people gonna plain forget about your d1 actions anyway) and sacrificing an RB is harsh. May be doable. But Yates seemed to be playing for longterm and not expected to die anytime soon. So taking his spew seriously looks like a good idea to me.

 

 

Maybe you understand "playing for longterm" differently than I do - but when I'm scum, the best thing I can do for my team is puppeteer mislynches from the grave, which I consider playing for the long term. 

 

Honestly, this stuff is killing me because I have no read at all on how any of you think when you're scum (or town).  It's like playing poker without watching the other players, and just looking at your cards.  Which is actually kind of awesome for me right now; it's been a while since mafia was a genuine puzzle.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:29 PM, Nynaeve said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:02 PM, Kivam said:

He was on Pral pretty much the whole day.  It was either serious distancing or serious lynch attempt

 

I am well aware of it.

 

But Arsis' Iso, meta and Pral's awful post after day started, trying to use Yates flip to clear himself  + his bad reaction to my FoS with 'Scum would never bus in this setup' is all summing up to a scum lean. While I'm not discounting the importance of spew, it shouldn't be the sole reason to be town/scum reading someone. I've been in a scum team with Yates of just the two of us (Lee was my hydra) where we got nixed D1 and he still won all on his own. I'm not discounting possibilities with him. He's crafty. 

 

 

He gets around?

He's always down?

He's got a gripe?

He's just your type?

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:29 PM, WWWwombat said:

I don't know if something like the gambit would ever work again on DM.  Yates definitely enjoys making big plays, but idk if I see the juice as being worth the squeeze in this case.  Regardless, I don't think it's something to pursue on D2.

 

Also, the most common motivation behind scum kills on DM right now is to kill consensus townies.  Frame kills and no info kills are kinda rare.

 

 

I don't think Pral trying to use Yates to defend himself is actually that scummy.  It could very easily be PoV bias/frustration rather than scum.

 

Which is only relevant if you know who the scum (wolves & SK) are.  If I were either, frame kills would definitely be in play.  Same for Wes, & I assume you and VerBarm - which is enough of the game to make the odds good that the concept would at least be discussed. 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:38 PM, Despothera said:

@Kivam: nothing I said there is actually wrong. It IS more dubious to hunt a SK than hunt scum. Sure, you can look for someone "playing in the middle" or slightly too worried about self-preservation, but there will often be multiple people who would arguably fit in that category. Hell, you yourself would fit in that category atm.

 

Hunting for mafia is much less dubious, ESPECIALLY in this circumstance. Mafia will often have links to each other of SOME kind ITT, whether it's distancing that seems fake, concerted pushes on things or people, or outright ignoring one another a bit too much. And in this instance, we already have a dead Mafioso which gives us a wealth if knowledge we can use to find his other teammates.

 

So yes, I'm fairly experienced, and while my game can shift anywhere from top tier to "loldespot" I wouldn't consider myself a bad player, and I still think what I was saying is valid

 

Yes.  It's easier to catch mafia than a SK.  But it's also more important early in a game to catch the SK than mafia, just because of how it impacts the numbers.  Which is why everyone should have their eyes open for SK possibilities and if there's a case to be made, prioritize it over wolves.

 

Again, nobody should ignore an obvious mafioso for a potential SK, and we can't stop hunting wolves.  But we absolutely have to stop referring to people as "lock town" based on their interactions with scum, or seeming "legit scumhunting" etc., and watch for the type of play that could indicate a serial.

 

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:40 PM, csarmi said:

No such thing as being townspewec until the sk flips. For instance, Arsis/Pray may just be anti town but not mafia and that would fit Nyn's picture.

 

Tl;dr - lynch scummy people and lynch people who got s umspewed but careful with the townspew stuff.

 

This

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:18 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:12 PM, Kivam said:

First the Cromwell Approval now you're paraphrasing Oliver Cromwell?  All Cromwell all the time ...

 

Wasn't aware I was doing that there, but I have no problem with it.

 

 

"I BESEECH YOU IN THE BOWELS OF CHRIST THINK IT POSSIBLE YOU MAY BE MISTAKEN." In a letter to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. 1650

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:49 PM, Andrej said:

Firstly - I never said Leelou was 100% a villager for making that post. I explained several times that I saw it was a villagery thing to do and that made me comfortable with her as an early lean moving forward. Her play only increased that lean to a town read as the game progressed. For a snap read on pg4, it was still pretty good. Throwing numbers and percentages at it doesn't devalue my ability to discern a player's mindset just because you don't agree or find it stupid. Really it's just rather condescending on your part.

 

And I would like you to answer my first question, in all seriousness. It's another example of where I think your logic is questionable. You're characterizing my action as something negative when my follow up doesn't align with your conclusion. Like at all. It sounds made up where you're looking for generic 'tells' from players to push/fabricate scum reads on them.

Oh lord.

 

First, that's like saying going all in on an inside straight draw was the right play because you happened to hit it.  Bad plays will give good results some percentage of the time.  Good plays will give bad results some percentage of the time.  Therefore, judging whether a play is good or bad based on whether it gave good results in a particular instance is completely ludicrous (and that's all the more true when the bad play has a 75% chance of being "right" when issued randomly).

 

I'm not trying to be condescending, but either you are making a very good subtle wolf play by sending a subliminal town signal (look, I'm proud of my read - which only makes sense if I'm town), or you're patting yourself on the back for something you shouldn't be.

 

Second, the point of highlighting play while defending it is to shift the town's focus onto a townie while letting other townies do the work of moving from suspicion to lynch.  That gets the result the scum want without the risk of leading a lynch yourself.  But then, if you're scum, you already knew that.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:20 PM, csarmi said:

Yes he does. Only way the SK would holster here if they missed their night action. But actions can be sent in advance (before night starts) so...

 

Chances overlapping shots are high even with totally random shooting and then there is the RB/jail keep.

 

They can?

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:29 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:09 PM, csarmi said:

BTW... That's simply not how I work at all. I wouldn't do what you imply as any alignment. For starters, I'm not deliberate like that. I don't manipulate ever. Just not how my mind works.

 

Simply put, I say what I mean and I mean what I say. In any game. Cause that's just how I roll.

 

I dunno the first thing about subtle.

 

I think you've seen me play already.

 

I just read a post by Andrej that said a similar thing that you do above - "I can't be mafia because I don't mislead people or think like that".

 

This is like the villain that slips on a pair of glasses while the hero has an arm cocked back.

 

Honestly, I'm re-reading with a Straussian view on things ("scholar" vs. "great thinker") to try and bridge the logic gaps so that we can communicate, but that falls apart when players don't make any sense at all. Half of the bedbugs in this game are putting on bathrobes, calling themselves Jedi and holding their hands over their computer to make decisions. I hate to be the bearer of bad tidings, but that doesn't actually work.

 

Everything you say above screams scum. 

 

 

QFMFT

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:53 PM, Andrej said:

I'm not getting into this with you Kivam.

 

It's a distraction and the scenario we are talking about very likely didn't happen anyway so further time wasted on talking about it is going to get us nowhere.

 

If you think I'm a wolf for it then shut up and vote me already but I'm not going to engage on this line of talk anymore.

 

In other words, "I can't think of even a single logical reason to back up the argument I made, so I'm going to change the subject"

 

So yeah, I'll take you up on that invite.  [v]##Andrej[/v]

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 8:00 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:44 PM, Andrej said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:35 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

This is just plain wrong and contradictory to the tone-reading stuff to boot. You saying that you get a good feel for a player's alignment early in the game and then trying to shut down discussion over events doesn't make sense, but does speak of an agenda.

 

And those are correlated how? Discussion over the NAs is pointless in my opinion, tone reading has nothing to do with it. The most we're going to get out of the speculation is varying levels of agreement about what could've happened which likely will devolve into arguments over theory, which is has somewhat already started to.

 

Further more, it serves as a distraction because it isn't directly relevant to anything we can discuss that happened on thread for all to see and gives scum something to chatter about without actually having to scum hunt.

 

So. Let's. Drop. It. For. Now.

 

 

These are correlated by the fact that support using non-logial means to determine a player's alignment, but then don't want to take part in speculative conversations regarding different NK scenarios. You support guessing and then say you don't want to guess about something else.

 

The discussion can and should continue as it forces players to comment on what they think happened. When a wolf comments, they either have to distance (often by using flimsy logic that pings) or give up their teammate to try and cover themselves. Either way, the practice forces conversation and gives us GRC posts to look at.

 

Trying to shut down conversations does nothing but help the wolves. 

 

 

And, yet again, QFMFT

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 10:25 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 10:14 PM, Cass said:

Am I right though, in thinking that we are better to vote for who we think is scum, rather than who we think is SK? Even if we just became a pretty decent target? Lol

 

You take down every threat to the town you can, every chance you get to do it. There's no particular order.

 

 

Yep, though SK before scum if you have a hanging curve on both

[Kivam]

  On 11/16/2014 at 10:31 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 10:25 PM, Cass said:

Hey Nyn, about to run off to drs appt (already late) will get back to you asap. Were interesting, also have a few thoughts to add. :)

 

And also ^^ (#2335) that was a really bad move, wasn't it? *headdesk* 

 

Des, tell me that I'm wrong?

 

Why would you presenting factual posts be a bad move?

 

Your question to him is a bit off though - you shoulda asked him to reveal the result of his investigation.

 

It's amazing to me how many Seers we had yesterday and yet we have no results today... But "Seer Cover" is an awesome move. Believe it. 

 

 

This, too.

 

[DPR]

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:16 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:20 PM, csarmi said:

Yes he does. Only way the SK would holster here if they missed their night action. But actions can be sent in advance (before night starts) so...

 

Chances overlapping shots are high even with totally random shooting and then there is the RB/jail keep.

 

They can?

 

 

 

Awww man, I was waiting to see who else was going to catch that one. 

 

of course, no one else is really playing...

[Kivam]

Preach it, Billy

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FG1NrQYXjLU

[Kivam]

Damn it, Wes, you couldn't wait to post?  Now that video makes no sense at all

[Kivam]

BTW, my "Willing to lynch" list for today is pretty much headed by Andrej, DesLami, Wombat, VerBarm, Halia and Krak.

 

Andrej because IMO anyone who makes an argument they can't back up even a little bit is scum who got out over their skis.  DesLami for the points made by Wes.  Wombat and VerBarm as my top SK candidates of the day, and Halia and Krak as inactives who need to begin contributing right the hell now.

[Andrej]

##Unvote

 

[v]##Kivam[/v]

 

You can die now.

 

Literally nothing you've said makes me scum by any measure of explanation, but you continue pushing it as if it's fact. Your reasons are bad and have been bad most of the game and overall I'm over your better than thou attitude. You are calling me scum and yet are content to push the same things that I am, which makes zero sense if you are town. You want your cake and to eat it too.

[WWWwombat]

  On 11/17/2014 at 2:02 AM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 1:48 AM, WWWwombat said:

Also, we didn't really have that many seer covers yesterday DPR.  We currently have 4 left.  That's pretty terrible seer cover actually.  I'm willing to continue releasing seer cover peeks but at some point, we might end up giving the scum more info than we give the town.

 

4 who have all chosen to withhold their results. Why is that? They no longer wish to provide any cover? They all want to release their info tomorrow for a huge CFD?

 

Or is it because at some point, no matter how many people join in, it becomes obvious that all you are doing is helping the scum team by narrowing the field. How many fake seers are going to name scum as town? How many scum are going to name townies as town and gain cred that way? All of the way until end game when the only people confused are the town.

 

It's a scum plan invented to benefit scum, just like tone reading. That's why the scum GF started it in this game and why I've voted for the henchmen that pushed it. 

 

You're better off coming up with legit deal than appealing to the masses. 

 

 

Meh.  20/20 hindsight imo.  You had no way of knowing Yates was scum at the time and there were too many people seer covering for all of us to be Yates' henchmen.  I sort of don't care anymore though because it seems like the majority of the game has decided they won't be seer covering, so that's going to be the dominant paradigm here.  I just hope the actual seer is well hidden.

 

Also, you must have missed the last sentence of my post because I alluded to one of your points there.

 

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 2:50 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:14 PM, csarmi said:

Also in a game with 4 shots per day I'd be choosing BPV as SK 100% of the time and play pro-town.

 

Not me, but maybe that's because I'm used to being viewed much more often than NKd

 

 

 

I get nightkilled N1 and N2 a lot on DM now.  I would have been tempted to go BPV but probably would have gone GF.  I can see Salami's point though.  With the amount of kills in this game, there's a good chance of either the seer or the SK getting shot at some point, either of which would make BPV more useful than GF.

 

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 2:58 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:29 PM, WWWwombat said:

I don't know if something like the gambit would ever work again on DM.  Yates definitely enjoys making big plays, but idk if I see the juice as being worth the squeeze in this case.  Regardless, I don't think it's something to pursue on D2.

 

Also, the most common motivation behind scum kills on DM right now is to kill consensus townies.  Frame kills and no info kills are kinda rare.

 

 

I don't think Pral trying to use Yates to defend himself is actually that scummy.  It could very easily be PoV bias/frustration rather than scum.

 

Which is only relevant if you know who the scum (wolves & SK) are.  If I were either, frame kills would definitely be in play.  Same for Wes, & I assume you and VerBarm - which is enough of the game to make the odds good that the concept would at least be discussed. 

 

 

NK speculation isn't as popular on DM as it used to be.  Don't know about Wes or Barm, but Verb and I would both consider frame kills imo, but I think we'd be more likely to use the NK to silence someone who was pushing an overly pro-town agenda.

 

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:05 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:18 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:12 PM, Kivam said:

First the Cromwell Approval now you're paraphrasing Oliver Cromwell?  All Cromwell all the time ...

 

Wasn't aware I was doing that there, but I have no problem with it.

 

 

"I BESEECH YOU IN THE BOWELS OF CHRIST THINK IT POSSIBLE YOU MAY BE MISTAKEN." In a letter to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. 1650

 

 

 

Haha, you said "bowels."

 

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:27 AM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/17/2014 at 3:16 AM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 7:20 PM, csarmi said:

Yes he does. Only way the SK would holster here if they missed their night action. But actions can be sent in advance (before night starts) so...

 

Chances overlapping shots are high even with totally random shooting and then there is the RB/jail keep.

 

They can?

 

 

 

Awww man, I was waiting to see who else was going to catch that one. 

 

of course, no one else is really playing...

 

 

Seriously.  We have like 9465340634053 posts but no one wants to actually play.  It's weird.

[Tommyrod]

Vote Count D2.10:

 

Verbarm (3): Nyn [#2192], Saladtosser [#2202], Darthe [#2224]

Kivam (2): Wombat [#2198], AJ [#2373]

Pral (1): Thane [#1931]

Deslami (1): DPR [#2316]

AJ (1): Kivam [#2365]

 

Unvote (3): Pral [#1985], Cass [#2187], Deslami [#2209]

 

Not Voting (5): Hallia, Krak, Rags, Tress, Verbarm

 

At the gallows: Verbarm

 

Reminder: players not voting at EOD will be voting for themselves.