[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:03 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 2:51 PM, csarmi said:

Wombat, what do you think about yesterday's train and the eventa following it?

 

As you took the town leadwr mantle apparently...

 

 

Did you read my explanation post?  I didn't like the trains on DPR and Pral.  So I directed things personally.  People are mad about that and now want me dead.  But seeing as Pral looks to be spewed town to me and DPR is looking increasingly townie today, I regret nothing.

 

 

Actually, I'm more mad that you abused Cromwell.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:06 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:04 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat.... 

 

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed.  Unlikely to be a bus move imo.  Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

 

 

Don't know that I agree with this, though that may be because you know it isn't true for me when I'm scum.  But I like this post. 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:12 PM, WWWwombat said:

Also, Kivam saying that I might have SK shot Leelou when we have only 3 kills and one of them is on scum is WUT?

 

But not this one.  Been through the kill options already, and any claim of certainty that there was no SK or Vig shot is cray-cray. 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:14 PM, Nynaeve said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:06 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:04 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat.... 

 

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed.  Unlikely to be a bus move imo.  Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

 

 

Really? Because to me it seemed like he threw in the 'still up for a Pral lynch' to look squeaky clean when Sili flipped town. I mean, he did try to stop it.... but oh no...it was too late... no one listened. 

 

Not to mention that his vote was on Pral as he was saying it. It was a redundant comment to make that he was still up for his lynch and it feels like it was made to make him look good later on when Sili flipped town. Especially considering he said it 5 MINUTES BEFORE THE DEADLINE. PFFT.

 

 

He was on Pral pretty much the whole day.  It was either serious distancing or serious lynch attempt

[Thane Vakarian]

so, just checking in quickly. Still have work to do in the house.

 

I can follow the lines for going after Hallia and Krak... and for the same reasons Pral.... Enough days have passed to be at least somewhat active.

 

i'll probably be back either tonight or when i get to work tomorrow (tomorrow morning, work starts to change 8 windows and the front door, so i have enough to do then )

[csarmi]

How exactly do you hunt for SK, Kivam?

[csarmi]

Also in a game with 4 shots per day I'd be choosing BPV as SK 100% of the time and play pro-town.

[csarmi]

  On 11/16/2014 at 12:59 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:06 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:04 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

 

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat....

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed. Unlikely to be a bus move imo. Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

Don't know that I agree with this, though that may be because you know it isn't true for me when I'm scum. But I like this post.

Sacrificing either of the vigs is madness (you never wanna lose a kill as Mafia unless you have a very good reason to - nope gaining some town cred isn't enough especially not on DM where people gonna plain forget about your d1 actions anyway) and sacrificing an RB is harsh. May be doable. But Yates seemed to be playing for longterm and not expected to die anytime soon. So taking his spew seriously looks like a good idea to me.

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:16 PM, Barmacral said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 2:23 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 1:43 PM, Barmacral said:

How to catch them? Evidence, DPR and Kiv are good, but they make slips too. With the new evidence of all the dead people, especially yates, go back and read how they interact with them (and others). Looking at Wombat is A safe bet and to be encouraged, but don't tunnel in on him, look at everyone else too.

 

Kivam's accusation of Wombat is also of him being the SK, not scum. While good to get rid of them, scum are more important. Dig into Wombat for your own reasons, but not for Kiv's.

 

 

I'm calling sever BS on this.  The SK has a nightly kill all to himself; if we take him out, we have fewer deaths.  The Scum have their factional kill and a N2 vig, and that's it.  Unless we lynch the N2 vig today (a 1/3 shot even on top of the odds that we manage to find an actual wolf), lynching a wolf doesn't mean fewer town deaths until we take them all out.  With only 3 wolfs left, we have a strong numbers advantage - would much rather preserve it by taking out a SK early than moderately enhance it by taking out a wolf. 

 

This is simple math, btw.  Assuming we take out the SK today and our next wolf, say, Day 4, we'll likely have 2 townies shot tonight (Scum factional and vig), then 1 townie shot N3 (factional) for a total of 3 dead townies).  Do it in reverse, and we likely have the same number of townies killed by the wolfs and potentially 2 more dead townies from the serial nights 2 and 3 (odds that he hits a wolf are low, only 3 left out of 16 players). 

 

The only way killing scum before serial doesn't hurt us in the death count, other than getting lucky and having the SK kill scum for us or vice versa, is if we nail them back to back; the longer the spread between scum and SK, the worse it gets.  So while we definitely shouldn't be ignoring wolves to flail around after potential SK targets, if there's a legit case on a serial potential, that takes priority IMO.

 

Anyone disagree?  If so, why?

 

 

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 2:36 PM, Kivam said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 2:13 PM, Nynaeve said:

Why are people wondering why Kivam and DPR haven't been NKed instead of wondering why Leelou and Stellio were? lol

 

Leelou could be because of her experience with some of the old hags. She might have been considered a threat. Or possibly because quite a few were townreading her, but I'd hardly say she was a consensus townread. So odd choice. No idea why Stellio. I mean he was being townread by some (if I remember right) but he hasn't had much interactions.... maybe a flip that doesn't give info?

Good question, but keep in mind that it's possible that one was killed by the SK or Vig.  We only had 3 kills last night instead of the expected 4 (Scum factional, Scum Vig, SK, Vig), so either there was a double tap (one player targeted twice), Stelio managed to save someone with his jailkeep last night, or scum roleblocked the SK or Vig. 

 

We know Yates was a SK/Vig kill, obviously, which means at least one of Leelou and Stelio were targeted by scum.  But we don't know whether both were, or what it means ... yet.

 

For instance, Leelou or Stelio could have been targeted by a SK afraid they could peg them (for Leelou, this screams VerBarm or Wombat, to me, especially after Barm's "no, ignore the SK, let's just focus on wolves right now" post and my suspicions on Wombat's changed play.  Don't know enough about Stelio to speculate).  Or it could be a low information kill.  Or it could be that their reads were right and scum was eliminating a danger.  Or it could be that their reads were dead wrong and scum wanted to plant the idea they must have been onto something, to lead us to wrong lynches.

 

We just don't have enough information yet to make informed judgments from the fact that they are dead; we're trying to solve a 1,000 piece puzzle when we can only see 10 of the pieces.  But we will get more pieces as days go by.

 

 

Yeah no I wasn't suggesting we ignore the SK, but I am saying scum hunting is the top priority. If there is a good case made for the SK than sure, lets lynch, it'll help the town. A scum lynch will help the town more. Also this focus on the SK is scummy to me. Trying to direct attention off of scum leads.

 

 

This whole post is ass backwards

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:18 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:12 PM, WWWwombat said:

Also, Kivam saying that I might have SK shot Leelou when we have only 3 kills and one of them is on scum is WUT?

 

The fact that he left out the frame-up option is cause for concern. Could be an honest omission. Could be intentional. We'll see.

 

 

My understanding is that Barm has been on long term leave, like me.  Not sure how many people would know to frame that way, but it's a good point

[Nynaeve]

  On 11/16/2014 at 1:02 PM, Kivam said:

He was on Pral pretty much the whole day.  It was either serious distancing or serious lynch attempt

 

I am well aware of it.

 

But Arsis' Iso, meta and Pral's awful post after day started, trying to use Yates flip to clear himself  + his bad reaction to my FoS with 'Scum would never bus in this setup' is all summing up to a scum lean. While I'm not discounting the importance of spew, it shouldn't be the sole reason to be town/scum reading someone. I've been in a scum team with Yates of just the two of us (Lee was my hydra) where we got nixed D1 and he still won all on his own. I'm not discounting possibilities with him. He's crafty. 

[WWWwombat]

I don't know if something like the gambit would ever work again on DM.  Yates definitely enjoys making big plays, but idk if I see the juice as being worth the squeeze in this case.  Regardless, I don't think it's something to pursue on D2.

 

Also, the most common motivation behind scum kills on DM right now is to kill consensus townies.  Frame kills and no info kills are kinda rare.

 

 

I don't think Pral trying to use Yates to defend himself is actually that scummy.  It could very easily be PoV bias/frustration rather than scum.

[WWWwombat]

I would really like to hear more from Verb.

[csarmi]

And me right? :-)

 

When is DL?

[csarmi]

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:30 PM, WWWwombat said:

I would really like to hear more from Verb.

You know the chances of that happening on weekend right.

[WWWwombat]

DL is monday night EST.  Hopefully Verb can come back for the last third of this day phase.

[hazelkrs1]

@Kivam: nothing I said there is actually wrong. It IS more dubious to hunt a SK than hunt scum. Sure, you can look for someone "playing in the middle" or slightly too worried about self-preservation, but there will often be multiple people who would arguably fit in that category. Hell, you yourself would fit in that category atm.

 

Hunting for mafia is much less dubious, ESPECIALLY in this circumstance. Mafia will often have links to each other of SOME kind ITT, whether it's distancing that seems fake, concerted pushes on things or people, or outright ignoring one another a bit too much. And in this instance, we already have a dead Mafioso which gives us a wealth if knowledge we can use to find his other teammates.

 

So yes, I'm fairly experienced, and while my game can shift anywhere from top tier to "loldespot" I wouldn't consider myself a bad player, and I still think what I was saying is valid

[hazelkrs1]

@Nyn: the thing is tho most the stuff you just mentioned about Pray (him "clearing" himself after Yates' flip, his reaction to you about no bussing in this setup), is all stuff that happened this day phase, but you had a scumlean on Pray PRIOR to this phase to begin with.

 

So I'd like you to try to reset your read on that slot if you can, and if you see more in the future by all means bring it up again, but for now I can't help but think it's confbias

[Nynaeve]

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:41 PM, Despothera said:

@Nyn: the thing is tho most the stuff you just mentioned about Pray (him "clearing" himself after Yates' flip, his reaction to you about no bussing in this setup), is all stuff that happened this day phase, but you had a scumlean on Pray PRIOR to this phase to begin with.

 

Yeah, so? I had a scum lean on that slot from Arsis' ISO and my knowledge of his meta. Then Pral subbed in and delivered a lame read list imo. He can argue that he didn't finish his catch up and bla bla bla. But I thought it was lame and uncharacteristic of him. Him taking ages to post is null for him cause he always sucks when it comes to that. And then his posts after D2 started have done nothing to make him look better. Quite the opposite.

 

It's a simple case of adding in the good and the bad. I have multiple reasons to think he's scum. And then there's a possibility that Yates spews him town, which is not certain by any means. So I'm not going to just ignore all the reasons I think he's scum because of a possibility when the source of that is Yates. I don't think I give scum spew as much of a priority as you might. And that's fine. Free country and all.

 

As you can see I'm voting Verbram right now because they're my strongest scum read right now. I'm just saying that Pral is still very much orange at this point. 

[DPR]

  On 11/16/2014 at 2:38 PM, Despothera said:

@Kivam: nothing I said there is actually wrong. It IS more dubious to hunt a SK than hunt scum. Sure, you can look for someone "playing in the middle" or slightly too worried about self-preservation, but there will often be multiple people who would arguably fit in that category. Hell, you yourself would fit in that category atm.

 

Hunting for mafia is much less dubious, ESPECIALLY in this circumstance. Mafia will often have links to each other of SOME kind ITT, whether it's distancing that seems fake, concerted pushes on things or people, or outright ignoring one another a bit too much. And in this instance, we already have a dead Mafioso which gives us a wealth if knowledge we can use to find his other teammates.

 

So yes, I'm fairly experienced, and while my game can shift anywhere from top tier to "loldespot" I wouldn't consider myself a bad player, and I still think what I was saying is valid

 

A bird in hand... 

[Nynaeve]

I'm not saying Pral is at the point of no return. If he manages to deliver solid posts I might revisit my read on him. But up until now I haven't seen anything that makes me feel better about him.

[Tommyrod]

Vote Count D2.8:

 

Verbarm (3): Nyn [#2192], Saladtosser [#2202], Darthe [#2224]

Wombat (1): Kivam [#1906]

Pral (1): Thane [#1931]

Kivam (1): Wombat [#2198]

Krak (1): AJ [#2223]

 

Unvote (3): Pral [#1985], Cass [#2187], Deslami [#2209]

 

Not Voting (6): DPR, Hallia, Krak, Rags, Tress, Verbarm

 

At the gallows: Verbarm

 

Reminder: players not voting at EOD will be voting for themselves.

 

[csarmi]

No such thing as being townspewec until the sk flips. For instance, Arsis/Pray may just be anti town but not mafia and that would fit Nyn's picture.

 

Tl;dr - lynch scummy people and lynch people who got s umspewed but careful with the townspew stuff.

[csarmi]

Nyn looks hot.

[Tommyrod]