[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[DPR]

Yates claimed seer (for seer cover) to gain town cred. It's not rocketscience imo.

 

*facepalm*

 

Yes Thane, he did. 

 

He also claimed a viewing. Any thoughts on that?

[Barmacral]

 

 

 

About as big as yours. Less so possibly since you're in the spotlight a lot more.

 

 

Man, I'm always in the spotlight. I do what I do. Activity ain't one of my problems in life.

 

What are the the chances a scum team leaves me and Kiv on the board? Several possibilities here - but only several. Whadya think?

 

 

I'd answer you but Des beat me to it.

[Thane Vakarian]

for the viewing, i think he actually did call dice town, and dice is town. Just covering more tracks in case something wild like, oh, i dunno.... a dice EOD CFD happens and he flips town. Wolves know who the townies are anyways. 

[Nynaeve]

Why are people wondering why Kivam and DPR haven't been NKed instead of wondering why Leelou and Stellio were? lol

 

Leelou could be because of her experience with some of the old hags. She might have been considered a threat. Or possibly because quite a few were townreading her, but I'd hardly say she was a consensus townread. So odd choice. No idea why Stellio. I mean he was being townread by some (if I remember right) but he hasn't had much interactions.... maybe a flip that doesn't give info?

[hazelkrs1]

@DPR: Thank you for being kinda reasonable in your response there. This isn't me being facetious either. If you're town, I'd rather put that crap behind us (for this game at least) and move on to wrecking scum.

 

Anyways, I kinda gave my thoughts on Yates' seer claim already. I think it spews Dice town. I know Yates likes gambits, but I don't think he'd so intrinsically tie him and a teammate together so cleanly in his first post of the game.

 

The seer claim, and then saying he wasn't going to do the Dice soulread thing, makes me think he was trying to pocket Dice. Dice could still be SK, but I don't think he's mafia.

 

Going through Yates spew right now tho

[Thane Vakarian]

Stelio was hesitant lynching Sili if i remember correctly. Perhaps he indeed was onto something. I'll need to reread his iso to see where he was at

[hazelkrs1]

@Nyn: I think your theory on Leelou's NK has some merit, her having experience with the old fogies.

 

As for Stelio, I think scum wanted to kill cleared townies.

 

That being said, discussing N1 NK's is usually wifom.

[Barmacral]

Why are people wondering why Kivam and DPR haven't been NKed instead of wondering why Leelou and Stellio were? lol

 

Leelou could be because of her experience with some of the old hags. She might have been considered a threat. Or possibly because quite a few were townreading her, but I'd hardly say she was a consensus townread. So odd choice. No idea why Stellio. I mean he was being townread by some (if I remember right) but he hasn't had much interactions.... maybe a flip that doesn't give info?

 

I've been giving thought to this. I think Leelou was a safe low-information lynch, she posted a fair but never said a lot. Less sure on Stelio.

[Barmacral]

and by lynch I mean NK of course.

[Nynaeve]

@Nyn: I think your theory on Leelou's NK has some merit, her having experience with the old fogies.

 

As for Stelio, I think scum wanted to kill cleared townies.

 

That being said, discussing N1 NK's is usually wifom.

 

I'm not in the habit of doing it, really. But if we were going to touch the topic, I thought it was funny to be discussing who wasn't NKed rather than who was.

[DPR]

That being said, I think I'm actually going to table the DPR read for a little bit. Would rather get a wide scope of everything, and maybe his bad and scummy play can be excused partly on rust, partly on not being used to new DM environment, and partly on me even (considering our history). I STILL think his push on Sili yesterday, regarding "evidence" was mightly wolfy, but eh we're not out here to catch ONE scum, but to pokecatchemall.

 

So I want to at least reread all of Yates' posts obviously, and if possible reread all of D1 to see how others interacted with him.

 

Off the top of my head tho, I'm about ready to lock clear Dice. Despite me just mentioning Yates' penchant for gambits, I actually don't think he'd "clear" a teammate with his opening seer claim thing. Dice's reaction and seeming to genuinely believe Yates had "cleared" him also kinda seems like genuine town Dice as well. Don't expect anyone else to take this as gospel, but yeah I don't think Dice is mafia here at least. MAYBE SK, for how quick he jumped on board being "cleared", but don't think he's teammates with Dice

 

To be fair, I did not see this post before I asked the question it answers. Have no idea why I missed it, but I did.

 

I retract the Captain Obvious comment. 

 

I reserve the right to make it again, though.

[hazelkrs1]

@Nyn: Yeah I saw your point. Just threw that last part in as a blurb cause I DON'T want focus to be on the NK's for long (not any concrete info to be gleaned from there)

 

Just after looking over the first part of Yates' iso, I think early on he was trying to pocket a lot of townies. His thing with Dice and AJ, I think he was WKing Thane early on, yeah good stuff so far.

[Nynaeve]

If I have time I'll try to look over his posts too later.

[Kivam]

How to catch them? Evidence, DPR and Kiv are good, but they make slips too. With the new evidence of all the dead people, especially yates, go back and read how they interact with them (and others). Looking at Wombat is A safe bet and to be encouraged, but don't tunnel in on him, look at everyone else too.

 

Kivam's accusation of Wombat is also of him being the SK, not scum. While good to get rid of them, scum are more important. Dig into Wombat for your own reasons, but not for Kiv's.

 

 

I'm calling sever BS on this.  The SK has a nightly kill all to himself; if we take him out, we have fewer deaths.  The Scum have their factional kill and a N2 vig, and that's it.  Unless we lynch the N2 vig today (a 1/3 shot even on top of the odds that we manage to find an actual wolf), lynching a wolf doesn't mean fewer town deaths until we take them all out.  With only 3 wolfs left, we have a strong numbers advantage - would much rather preserve it by taking out a SK early than moderately enhance it by taking out a wolf. 

 

This is simple math, btw.  Assuming we take out the SK today and our next wolf, say, Day 4, we'll likely have 2 townies shot tonight (Scum factional and vig), then 1 townie shot N3 (factional) for a total of 3 dead townies).  Do it in reverse, and we likely have the same number of townies killed by the wolfs and potentially 2 more dead townies from the serial nights 2 and 3 (odds that he hits a wolf are low, only 3 left out of 16 players). 

 

The only way killing scum before serial doesn't hurt us in the death count, other than getting lucky and having the SK kill scum for us or vice versa, is if we nail them back to back; the longer the spread between scum and SK, the worse it gets.  So while we definitely shouldn't be ignoring wolves to flail around after potential SK targets, if there's a legit case on a serial potential, that takes priority IMO.

 

Anyone disagree?  If so, why?

[hazelkrs1]

Pray, if you seriously are town here, don't ever be the first one to point to a post after someone flips scum and be like "haha, thank God this spews me town"

 

It just looks INCREDIBLY wolfy dude, and YOU'D be responsible for a mislynch on you here were that to happen. Let SOMEONE ELSE point that kind of thing out, yeesh.

 

@Kivam: I think that argument in general is as useless as an extra butthole on my elbow. Killing the SK is all fine and dandy, but the SK isn't exactly going to flare up a sign that says "Lynch me! I'm the SK!" so hunting for them would be basically more dubious than hunting mafia.

 

Let's find not-town and burn them with fire till they're dead, kk? Good.

[DPR]

I like to discuss NK's, especially on D1. I like to discuss who was killed, who wasn't. I also like to keep the facts straight and see who tangles themselves up in a wifom mess.

 

I like talking. Let's talk more.

[Nynaeve]

You'll have to lure me with candy

[hazelkrs1]

[csarmi]

 

Not even trying and I'm 8th in posts and have everyone town reading me.  GET ON MY LEVEL.

 

 

Right around HERE is when Wombat's tone and behavior started changing DRASTICALLY. Don't take my word for it, check his iso out yourself.

That posts does read town!bat though.

[Thane Vakarian]

it would be interesting to find out who shot who last night.... but i doubt it'll happen. the SK won't come out to play, and the vigs would like to keep their cover imo. I would like to congratulate the townvig or SK for shooting Yates though.

 

Wolves took out either Leelou or Stelio. I think Leelou, because she'd be able to pin the wolves down further on in the game.  

[Tommyrod]

Q: Does flavor mean anything for night kills?

 

A: No, the deaths are listed in alphabetical order and the flavor is just for fun.

[Nynaeve]

Does anyone remember who was prodding Lee about possibly being the SK?  I can't find it in her posts.

[DPR]

 

How to catch them? Evidence, DPR and Kiv are good, but they make slips too. With the new evidence of all the dead people, especially yates, go back and read how they interact with them (and others). Looking at Wombat is A safe bet and to be encouraged, but don't tunnel in on him, look at everyone else too.

 

Kivam's accusation of Wombat is also of him being the SK, not scum. While good to get rid of them, scum are more important. Dig into Wombat for your own reasons, but not for Kiv's.

 

 

I'm calling sever BS on this.  The SK has a nightly kill all to himself; if we take him out, we have fewer deaths.  The Scum have their factional kill and a N2 vig, and that's it.  Unless we lynch the N2 vig today (a 1/3 shot even on top of the odds that we manage to find an actual wolf), lynching a wolf doesn't mean fewer town deaths until we take them all out.  With only 3 wolfs left, we have a strong numbers advantage - would much rather preserve it by taking out a SK early than moderately enhance it by taking out a wolf. 

 

This is simple math, btw.  Assuming we take out the SK today and our next wolf, say, Day 4, we'll likely have 2 townies shot tonight (Scum factional and vig), then 1 townie shot N3 (factional) for a total of 3 dead townies).  Do it in reverse, and we likely have the same number of townies killed by the wolfs and potentially 2 more dead townies from the serial nights 2 and 3 (odds that he hits a wolf are low, only 3 left out of 16 players). 

 

The only way killing scum before serial doesn't hurt us in the death count, other than getting lucky and having the SK kill scum for us or vice versa, is if we nail them back to back; the longer the spread between scum and SK, the worse it gets.  So while we definitely shouldn't be ignoring wolves to flail around after potential SK targets, if there's a legit case on a serial potential, that takes priority IMO.

 

Anyone disagree?  If so, why?

 

 

I'm not sure that Barm's phrasing was the best. 

 

I see the argument as moot for obvious reasons, but I'd love to be corrected.

[DPR]

You'll have to lure me with candy

 

Can't even believe we don't get to nighttalk. That's the candy.

[Kivam]

Why are people wondering why Kivam and DPR haven't been NKed instead of wondering why Leelou and Stellio were? lol

 

Leelou could be because of her experience with some of the old hags. She might have been considered a threat. Or possibly because quite a few were townreading her, but I'd hardly say she was a consensus townread. So odd choice. No idea why Stellio. I mean he was being townread by some (if I remember right) but he hasn't had much interactions.... maybe a flip that doesn't give info?

Good question, but keep in mind that it's possible that one was killed by the SK or Vig.  We only had 3 kills last night instead of the expected 4 (Scum factional, Scum Vig, SK, Vig), so either there was a double tap (one player targeted twice), Stelio managed to save someone with his jailkeep last night, or scum roleblocked the SK or Vig. 

 

We know Yates was a SK/Vig kill, obviously, which means at least one of Leelou and Stelio were targeted by scum.  But we don't know whether both were, or what it means ... yet.

 

For instance, Leelou or Stelio could have been targeted by a SK afraid they could peg them (for Leelou, this screams VerBarm or Wombat, to me, especially after Barm's "no, ignore the SK, let's just focus on wolves right now" post and my suspicions on Wombat's changed play.  Don't know enough about Stelio to speculate).  Or it could be a low information kill.  Or it could be that their reads were right and scum was eliminating a danger.  Or it could be that their reads were dead wrong and scum wanted to plant the idea they must have been onto something, to lead us to wrong lynches.

 

We just don't have enough information yet to make informed judgments from the fact that they are dead; we're trying to solve a 1,000 piece puzzle when we can only see 10 of the pieces.  But we will get more pieces as days go by.