[Standard] Cory vs. Bad Dietary Habits & Laziness Mafia, Mafia Sweep

[csarmi]

Ie. I'm pretty sure Krak believes that about Vos.

[Tommyrod]

I feel like when that last post is compared with Krak's earlier ones, it's revealed that he just had to think of some reasoning here retrospectively and came up with that now but never any sooner.

Which is just funny considering what he called me scum for originally! (Not explaining my vote on Pral.)

[Turin Turambar]

12. TI [Turin Turambar / Ithillian] - Turin has the ability to drop amazing town tells in scum posts and Ithi (who I can read better) is absent. Seriously beware of Turin tricking everyone all game.

 

This could make him a good lynch tomorrow then.

Krak will be a better lynch cause he is mafia.

 

Slender is the towniest townie that ever towned.

[Tommyrod]

 

12. TI [Turin Turambar / Ithillian] - Turin has the ability to drop amazing town tells in scum posts and Ithi (who I can read better) is absent. Seriously beware of Turin tricking everyone all game.

 

This could make him a good lynch tomorrow then.

Krak will be a better lynch cause he is mafia.

 

Slender is the towniest townie that ever towned.

Care to take Krak to task then? I don't see you talking to him. Asking him anything.

[Turin Turambar]

Only on 15 minute break. No time or computer. I called his TI vote a wolf claim yesterday as he was using supposed apathy from Ithi when it is something totally different keeping her away. Like he just wanted any reason to not vote arsis or Vos.

 

Gotta go. Plus pot kettle hypocrite in he was gone all D1.

[Tommyrod]

Krak any response to Turin Turambar?

[Andrej]

I like some of the stuff you brought up about Krak and Darthe. I guess I'm falling victim to the gambler's fallacy and wondering what the chances are that Darthe drew scum 2 games in a row. I can reread his ISO. It's probably like 10 posts iirc.

 

One thing I found weird in your analysis was this part:

 

 

 

Part 2

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Arsis (5) – manbat , dice, Pral, Darthe, TheSlenderMan

TI (2) –  GleMeri, AJ

SickPuppets (1) - Yates

Tomstress (1) - Arsis

AJ (2) - Halligeddon, TI

Nervositee (2) - Des, Tomstress

Not Voting (4): everyone else

 

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

I think Des and Tommy (although already town reads for me) both look good here for being on Vos.

 

I don't understand the logic, here. There seems to be a disconnect between what you say in this part of the post and what you say here:

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Arsis (5) – manbat , dice, Pral, Darthe, Halligeddon

TI (1) –  GleMeri,

SickPuppets (1) - Yates

Tomstress (1) - Arsis

Nervositee (5) - Des, Tomstress, TheSlenderMan, AJ, TI

 

Not Voting (4): everyone else

 

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch!

 

I think Turin moving to Vos in this VC looks sort of good for him. Obviously I have to consider that he wouldn't be aware that Vos was Indy, but again - consistency in his reads and voting patterns.

 

 

 

I mean, you recognize that the 3rd party [indy] lynch shouldn't be clearing anyone. So what made Tommy and Des clear to you from that VCA?

 

Bolded: I wouldn't invest a ton in this imo. I think some of that perception could be because he's your bro or whatever, which I understand. I saw you ISO'd him on my quick skim just now so I'll look that over more thoroughly after I reply here.

 

I see where you're coming from and how it reads as a fallacy, which I guess in a way it is at face value. You'd just have to read how the flow was going though. At the time, the Vos momentum was getting sort of stagnant (even Slendy had moved off him at this point) and they both went back to it and pushed into gear again. I could pull Despot's quotes if needed but he basically crushed Vos in some analysis and soon the wagon was back up to speed. This is why I think it looks good for them.

 

Turin's vote is just ~okay simply because it came after the wagon was picking up again. I also have a #conspiracytheory swirling through my head atm where I think Arsis was pushed pretty hard as Turin's counter wagon yesterday morning right around the time my wagon formed. So really Turin helping to lynch not-Town looks alright for him, but not super clearing by any means.

[Andrej]

 

Swag should get vigged/peeked/MK'd imo just so that he's no longer floating as an uncleared slot.

Given you also said this:

 

I want to say Arsis is probably clear after D1 but with so much revolving around him I would like some clarity as to his real alignment because that'll help me shape the rest of my reads....

 

Wouldn't it make more sense to get the Arsis slot situated given how many of your reads revolve around him? Just something I noted.

 

Again not a bad observation but I feel you're being a little nit picky with me.

 

Yes I could agree that clearing Arsis immediately would make more sense in a perfect world. The reason I suggest Swag is because 1) he's not present at all and therefore can't be interpreted further and 2) although I have my doubts on Arsis with all the WIFOM, I still have a feeling he might be town here

[Andrej]

@Yates, my guess would be bias. AJ stated he already had Tommy and Despo as town so attributes their votes as being on a town mindset. He had me as mafia so my action gets treated differently.

 

This also probably factors into it somewhat.

[Andrej]

 

I think if we vig/lynch/peek out of this group we're on the right track to victory

 

Krak

Pral

Swag

Darthe

Dice

Monstr

Arsis

 

Top down imo

I like this list a lot.

 

I think pral/Darthe went after me with manufactured reasons because I went after their scum bro tsb.

 

I'm seeing this too, but I'm thinking it's more because they were trying to save Turin, not because you attacked TSB.

 

Get over yourself

[Andrej]

 

I think if we vig/lynch/peek out of this group we're on the right track to victory

 

Krak

Pral

Swag

Darthe

Dice

Monstr

Arsis

 

Top down imo

Arsis should be higher on the list. Dice lower. Swag above Pralaya.

 

TI is off your list? So we are confirmed something in yourmind?

 

Not confirmed by a long shot

 

But despite you being a maniac there's this little voice in my head that says you could be town

 

I'd ignore it if it came down to lynching you over someone else in most circumstances, but it's still there.

[Yates]

Again not a bad observation but I feel you're being a little nit picky with me.

 

Yes I could agree that clearing Arsis immediately would make more sense in a perfect world. The reason I suggest Swag is because 1) he's not present at all and therefore can't be interpreted further and 2) although I have my doubts on Arsis with all the WIFOM, I still have a feeling he might be town here

I just feel like knowing Arsis is Town this early on is way more helpful than feelings. Just seemed like a lot of your reads were predicated on Arsis!Town so it seemed odd that you would prefer a comparatively less informative target like Swag. That's my thinking, anyway.

[Arsis]

Yates, I have you in my town pile so I'll be nice. Town are usually hesitant to advocate the lynch/vigging of people they believe to be town. :)

[Andrej]

^ basically that

[Andrej]

Still a good Cop target tho imo

[Andrej]

On the road now, two brief things I want to get out ITT:

 

1) I agree with the sentiment that #solving Arsis solves a LOT of things and gives us huuuge amounts of info: so that's where my main focus will be once I get settled. (Some chance of me having very little time for this Round tonight, but we'll see about that later.)

 

2) Darthe elaborate on your read on me pls. Give me a full train-of-thought to see.

 

Also 3) AJ is Town here.

 

lol

 

Slendy just caught Darthe disassociating himself

[Andrej]

Krak does look better atm

 

Chances that Turin is trying to sheep my case?

 

+/- ?

[keyholder21]

Night end in just over 7 hours.  

[Yates]

Still a good Cop target tho imo

^ basically that

 

I wasn't actually advocating for an Arsis vig shot. Some type of Arsis investigation? Sure.

[Yates]

I out of here at 4 and likely minimal posting over the weekend. Get at me now if you need anything from me.

[Andrej]

Who wants to guess who dies on N1

 

Swag for the classic DM 'no info' NK imo

[Arsis]

 

 

Who wants to guess who dies on N1

Swag for the classic DM 'no info' NK imo

I still say he's scum. So he's not it.

[Andrej]

That was more tongue in cheek for something Tom said out of the game.

 

I'm sure he'll understand.

[Tommyrod]

I may not be around tonight

[Andrej]

I miss you already