[Advanced] Twilight Mafia Game over - Mafia win

[Tommyrod]

 

@ Clov: maybe it's because I'm used to playing on 2+2 where wagon-stacking is a used tactic because people tend to vote-unvote very frequently and you can catch people in a slip if you leave wagons open for them at EOD, but I'm of the mind that daring scum to expose themselves by increasing the numbers on a wagon is valid play. I wouldn't do this on a wagon I suspected was very obviously town, but when it comes to people in the gray zone, it can provide useful information for late game.

 

I had already decided Dice was on the table prior to my ISO case purely from POE and not remembering he was in this game, which tends to be a bad sign. I find it's often those background floaters who aren't making a splash that tend to be scum. I think I mentioned this.

 

Re: Hallia, the confidence with which she responds to my query lets me figure out if she's bluffing or has conviction behind her statements because they're true. Players from the prior game I was just in should remember this, town Hallia has chutzpah, has confidence, even if correct. Scum Hallia does not. I thought we were looking at scum Hallia, but she didn't balk, so it's likely town Hallia, and if she's got a mechanically clearing reason to absolve Tina of guilt, that helps me take Tina off the table and makes POE / tinfoiling less annoying. I don't care if it looks like I'm PR hunting; she was not being subtle.

 

I think you're caught up in WaFia tells. This is DM, people are a little less bulky with their play here.

 

The problem I have with lynches like this is that I don't see how you look at all of the votes we've gotten so far (especially with the context they were placed) and come to the logical conclusion that this is a clean wagon.  I'm willing to overlook one or two bad votes, but the majority of votes on Dice right now made me shake my head.  Given the numbers right now, I don't see any reason that scum would be bussing a teammate to the point of a successful lynch.  With the assumption that at least one  - and very likely more than one - mafia member is on this lynch, I'm concluding that Dice has a significant probability of being town.

 

 

 

We've been mindmelding all game.

Noted. I think I've played more games with Clov than you or anyone else here, and I still don't know how to approach reading him because he's aggressive and persnickety in either role. His last post soft pushing me sure caught my attention.

 

 

Wasn't meant to be that soft.

 

I don't understand what you don't get, so I'll walk you through it.

 

Dice (5) - Hallia, Tommy, Tina, Dawn, Darthe

 

Back when I said that Darthe wasn't on the wagon, but I have a town read on him, so my point stands. Look at who is here: two claim investigators, myself, someone I read as noobtown, and someone I read as town. That looks like a pure-town wagon to me. Who are you objecting to on that wagon? Me?

 

If you wanna get @ me, then get @ me. It'll help me figure out if you're full of poop or not.

[Clovdyx]

 

 

@ Clov: maybe it's because I'm used to playing on 2+2 where wagon-stacking is a used tactic because people tend to vote-unvote very frequently and you can catch people in a slip if you leave wagons open for them at EOD, but I'm of the mind that daring scum to expose themselves by increasing the numbers on a wagon is valid play. I wouldn't do this on a wagon I suspected was very obviously town, but when it comes to people in the gray zone, it can provide useful information for late game.

 

I had already decided Dice was on the table prior to my ISO case purely from POE and not remembering he was in this game, which tends to be a bad sign. I find it's often those background floaters who aren't making a splash that tend to be scum. I think I mentioned this.

 

Re: Hallia, the confidence with which she responds to my query lets me figure out if she's bluffing or has conviction behind her statements because they're true. Players from the prior game I was just in should remember this, town Hallia has chutzpah, has confidence, even if correct. Scum Hallia does not. I thought we were looking at scum Hallia, but she didn't balk, so it's likely town Hallia, and if she's got a mechanically clearing reason to absolve Tina of guilt, that helps me take Tina off the table and makes POE / tinfoiling less annoying. I don't care if it looks like I'm PR hunting; she was not being subtle.

 

I think you're caught up in WaFia tells. This is DM, people are a little less bulky with their play here.

 

The problem I have with lynches like this is that I don't see how you look at all of the votes we've gotten so far (especially with the context they were placed) and come to the logical conclusion that this is a clean wagon.  I'm willing to overlook one or two bad votes, but the majority of votes on Dice right now made me shake my head.  Given the numbers right now, I don't see any reason that scum would be bussing a teammate to the point of a successful lynch.  With the assumption that at least one  - and very likely more than one - mafia member is on this lynch, I'm concluding that Dice has a significant probability of being town.

 

 

 

We've been mindmelding all game.

Noted. I think I've played more games with Clov than you or anyone else here, and I still don't know how to approach reading him because he's aggressive and persnickety in either role. His last post soft pushing me sure caught my attention.

 

 

Wasn't meant to be that soft.

 

I don't understand what you don't get, so I'll walk you through it.

 

Dice (5) - Hallia, Tommy, Tina, Dawn, Darthe

 

Back when I said that Darthe wasn't on the wagon, but I have a town read on him, so my point stands. Look at who is here: two claim investigators, myself, someone I read as noobtown, and someone I read as town. That looks like a pure-town wagon to me. Who are you objecting to on that wagon? Me?

 

If you wanna get @ me, then get @ me. It'll help me figure out if you're full of poop or not.

 

 

Hallia had the best vote, and based off her reasoning this phase, I feel the best about her vote.

 

Darthe's vote still looks garbage to me, but his claim is semi-confirmed and I've felt the best about him all game.

 

 

Tina's vote looks LESS garbage than Darthe's, but her claim is less substantiated right now.  Haven't agreed with her as much as Darthe, so she's middle of the pack.

 

 

You've looked bad since you admitted you weren't reading the thread at the beginning of the phase.  Conveniently everybody overlooked it.  Especially you.

 

Dawn's play has been horribad this game.  I don't see how any town player could come the conclusion that both Darthe and Des were scum.  I don't see how a town player would say "I really want to lynch X (Hallia, in this case)"...then proceed to vote the person who X has been pushing for nearly all of the day phase.  And I don't like that she just offered up her role as vanilla for literally NO reason whatsoever.  Not only is that an incredibly easy role to fake, it just happens to be the same claim you threw out there.  For no reason whatsoever. 

 

This is where I say my trademark "Things that make me say, 'Hmm....'" line.

[Tommyrod]

People here know I don't read all of games, you should know that more than anyone considering the epic displays of WIM I've shown on WF   

It's really not as big a deal as people make it out to be. You don't need to read every post to solve a game. Sometimes I read less than half and still get there. 

I'll concede that Dawn's behavior in the past day or two has been less clearing than it was when I decided she was probtown, I think Darthe made the same comment. It doesn't scare me away from lynching Dice, however. Let her bus if that's what she's doing.

What's your current take on Verb? He seems to enjoy being an amorphous blob in this game. He promised updated reads and we've only got 2 hours left in D2. No me gusta. 

[Clovdyx]

I'm going to Unlynch Lenlo and Vote Dawn, unless Christina Aguilera can convince me there's some great case on Dice that I'm just too stupid to see.

 

 

Because some of those votes look Diiiiirty

[Clovdyx]

People here know I don't read all of games, you should know that more than anyone considering the epic displays of WIM I've shown on WF   

 

It's really not as big a deal as people make it out to be. You don't need to read every post to solve a game. Sometimes I read less than half and still get there. 

 

I'll concede that Dawn's behavior in the past day or two has been less clearing than it was when I decided she was probtown, I think Darthe made the same comment. It doesn't scare me away from lynching Dice, however. Let her bus if that's what she's doing.

 

What's your current take on Verb? He seems to enjoy being an amorphous blob in this game. He promised updated reads and we've only got 2 hours left in D2. No me gusta. 

 

Scum-leaning null.  Verb never gave me a satisfactory answer for why he'd offer himself up before No Lynching.  I'll never buy that it's better for a townie to let themselves be lynched, and I don't like how he called out Tina after she got at him for being quiet.  I think he was the one who said he gets more active as the game goes on, so I want to hear where he stands after this phase. 

[Tommyrod]

And Christina Aguilera is... whom?

My case on Dice is that he's not engaged in the thread and the thought progression he has left, particularly WRT Tina, appears fake. E.g. http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/88683-advanced-twilight-mafia-day-2/page-54?do=findComment&comment=3224087

 

He's firmly in POE and has no saving claim or apparent townlike play. In particular, his voting history appears to be a mess. Darthe, Pral, Cory, Jack, Tina.

 

None of these behaviors individually are a smoking gun, but the sum of them points to scum behavior. 

[Verbal32]

@ Clov: maybe it's because I'm used to playing on 2+2 where wagon-stacking is a used tactic because people tend to vote-unvote very frequently and you can catch people in a slip if you leave wagons open for them at EOD, but I'm of the mind that daring scum to expose themselves by increasing the numbers on a wagon is valid play. I wouldn't do this on a wagon I suspected was very obviously town, but when it comes to people in the gray zone, it can provide useful information for late game.

 

I had already decided Dice was on the table prior to my ISO case purely from POE and not remembering he was in this game, which tends to be a bad sign. I find it's often those background floaters who aren't making a splash that tend to be scum. I think I mentioned this.

 

Re: Hallia, the confidence with which she responds to my query lets me figure out if she's bluffing or has conviction behind her statements because they're true. Players from the prior game I was just in should remember this, town Hallia has chutzpah, has confidence, even if correct. Scum Hallia does not. I thought we were looking at scum Hallia, but she didn't balk, so it's likely town Hallia, and if she's got a mechanically clearing reason to absolve Tina of guilt, that helps me take Tina off the table and makes POE / tinfoiling less annoying. I don't care if it looks like I'm PR hunting; she was not being subtle.

 

I think you're caught up in WaFia tells. This is DM, people are a little less bulky with their play here.

Can you elaborate on this?

[Tommyrod]

I think you're caught up in WaFia tells. This is DM, people are a little less bulky with their play here.

 

Can you elaborate on this?

On WF a lot of players are bad at being scum and get caught almost immediately; Monk comes to mind, he's played here. There's a lot of emphasis on night play and strategic night actions and "follow the cop" rather than interrogation during the day phase. When I started playing there, getting reads out of players was like pulling teeth, and No Lynch on D1 was standard because "you can't lynch scum on D1." I know Clov has played elsewhere at my behest, like on Vendetta Strada, but I'm sure he's still got some of the old WF habits built into him like "third voter is always scum!" that don't apply to a group of players that can actually be good at WIFOM and mind games.

 

My point is that rigid tells don't hold as much water as the player base is more experienced and more sophisticated. WF is a bunch of amateurs that play with each other for chuckles, not a bunch of dedicated mafia players. We have some of those here. I'm curious to see how/if Clov will adapt.

[Verbal32]

Hallia said she was 99% positive Tina was town - either read into that what you will, and decide if you believe her or not, or leave it up in the air.  Why risk exposing a power role for that extra 1% of certainty you can't really have until you see her alignment?

This is silly.  Anybody with half a brain read that as a PR claim.  I wanted to make sure (Tom actually said it better in his posts to her) this was admitted to by her, as it worked to clear my #1 suspect in Tina.  I'm still wondering about a risky scum fake claim to help clear a teammate that wasn't in trouble, which IMO is a solid time to make that play....when it isn't expected.  But if we can clear Tina via night actions (which I've stated I'm in support of), then I'm happy about this.

 

It isn't really risking PR exposure - that much occurred with Hallia's post.  If you are scum, in what way do you read that post other than a PR reveal?  I mean, c'mon.....you don't get much more obvious.  But as it dealt with Tina, I wanted to go that extra 1%, if you will.

[Tommyrod]

I should specify that some players get caught immediately due to the recent advent of THE DAY GAME on WF, prior to that it was a lot of follow the cop and nonsense tells like the third voter tell I just mentioned.

[Verbal32]

 

I think you're caught up in WaFia tells. This is DM, people are a little less bulky with their play here.

 

Can you elaborate on this?

On WF a lot of players are bad at being scum and get caught almost immediately; Monk comes to mind, he's played here. There's a lot of emphasis on night play and strategic night actions and "follow the cop" rather than interrogation during the day phase. When I started playing there, getting reads out of players was like pulling teeth, and No Lynch on D1 was standard because "you can't lynch scum on D1." I know Clov has played elsewhere at my behest, like on Vendetta Strada, but I'm sure he's still got some of the old WF habits built into him like "third voter is always scum!" that don't apply to a group of players that can actually be good at WIFOM and mind games.

 

My point is that rigid tells don't hold as much water as the player base is more experienced and more sophisticated. WF is a bunch of amateurs that play with each other for chuckles, not a bunch of dedicated mafia players. We have some of those here. I'm curious to see how/if Clov will adapt.

 

 

Ok, thanks for the clarification.

[dicetosser1]

And Christina Aguilera is... whom?

 

My case on Dice is that he's not engaged in the thread and the thought progression he has left, particularly WRT Tina, appears fake. E.g. http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/88683-advanced-twilight-mafia-day-2/page-54?do=findComment&comment=3224087

 

He's firmly in POE and has no saving claim or apparent townlike play. In particular, his voting history appears to be a mess. Darthe, Pral, Cory, Jack, Tina.

 

None of these behaviors individually are a smoking gun, but the sum of them points to scum behavior. 

 

wanna bet?

 

sometimes backfloaters   right tommy?? have a reason for backfloating

 

 

 

 

Im the Doc

[Tommyrod]

Do you have a reads list yet?

[Clovdyx]

 

Hallia said she was 99% positive Tina was town - either read into that what you will, and decide if you believe her or not, or leave it up in the air.  Why risk exposing a power role for that extra 1% of certainty you can't really have until you see her alignment?

This is silly.  Anybody with half a brain read that as a PR claim.  I wanted to make sure (Tom actually said it better in his posts to her) this was admitted to by her, as it worked to clear my #1 suspect in Tina.  I'm still wondering about a risky scum fake claim to help clear a teammate that wasn't in trouble, which IMO is a solid time to make that play....when it isn't expected.  But if we can clear Tina via night actions (which I've stated I'm in support of), then I'm happy about this.

 

It isn't really risking PR exposure - that much occurred with Hallia's post.  If you are scum, in what way do you read that post other than a PR reveal?  I mean, c'mon.....you don't get much more obvious.  But as it dealt with Tina, I wanted to go that extra 1%, if you will.

 

 

So it was totally obvious what she was getting at, but you wanted to make her say it anyways?

[Tommyrod]

 

And Christina Aguilera is... whom?

 

My case on Dice is that he's not engaged in the thread and the thought progression he has left, particularly WRT Tina, appears fake. E.g. http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/88683-advanced-twilight-mafia-day-2/page-54?do=findComment&comment=3224087

 

He's firmly in POE and has no saving claim or apparent townlike play. In particular, his voting history appears to be a mess. Darthe, Pral, Cory, Jack, Tina.

 

None of these behaviors individually are a smoking gun, but the sum of them points to scum behavior.

 

wanna bet?

 

sometimes backfloaters   right tommy?? have a reason for backfloating

 

 

 

 

Im the Doc

 

You'll have to pardon me if I don't instantly believe you. Targets, justification, your current reads?

[Hallia]

Hrm. unvote

 

I'm inclined to move to Verb

[Verbal32]

 

 

Hallia said she was 99% positive Tina was town - either read into that what you will, and decide if you believe her or not, or leave it up in the air.  Why risk exposing a power role for that extra 1% of certainty you can't really have until you see her alignment?

This is silly.  Anybody with half a brain read that as a PR claim.  I wanted to make sure (Tom actually said it better in his posts to her) this was admitted to by her, as it worked to clear my #1 suspect in Tina.  I'm still wondering about a risky scum fake claim to help clear a teammate that wasn't in trouble, which IMO is a solid time to make that play....when it isn't expected.  But if we can clear Tina via night actions (which I've stated I'm in support of), then I'm happy about this.

 

It isn't really risking PR exposure - that much occurred with Hallia's post.  If you are scum, in what way do you read that post other than a PR reveal?  I mean, c'mon.....you don't get much more obvious.  But as it dealt with Tina, I wanted to go that extra 1%, if you will.

 

 

So it was totally obvious what she was getting at, but you wanted to make her say it anyways?

 

 

You'd be surprised at how much wiggle room soft claims can leave.

[dicetosser1]

i think des is town unfortunately but thats more character reading and the way he described getting his vig then anything.

 

i think darthe is town.

 

I think Tina is lying

 

and prals post made me think he was just saying standard town like phrases. as i said that one is a gut reaction. i notice he has been mia since

 

and after all of this i dont trust hallia or you tommy

 

 

happy?

[Tommyrod]

Hrm. unvote

 

I'm inclined to move to Verb

Have you just been lurking this whole time?

[Darthe]

meep.  This whole game is aggravating.  

 

 

Yeah, I would rather have a full reveal from Hally as well but not at this time of day etc.  

 

##unvote vote verb

[Verbal32]

ISO on Pralaya:

 

I think he's town.  His reads have moved in line with the flow of the game, and his thoughts behind his reads/votes have been well-placed on thread (basically, how he viewed Lenlo).  He also was willing to put thought into how to utilize Lenlo's claimed role, and I remember agreeing with him on that topic.

 

He's also been consistent with his thoughts on Des, Darthe, and Tina.  He hasn't really focused on anybody else outside of those 4, but I can follow him pretty well.  Town lean.

[Tommyrod]

i think des is town unfortunately but thats more character reading and the way he described getting his vig then anything.

 

i think darthe is town.

 

I think Tina is lying

 

and prals post made me think he was just saying standard town like phrases. as i said that one is a gut reaction. i notice he has been mia since

 

and after all of this i dont trust hallia or you tommy

 

 

happy?

It's a start. Can you explain your progression on Tina and why you still think she's scum?

[Verbal32]

i think des is town unfortunately but thats more character reading and the way he described getting his vig then anything.

 

i think darthe is town.

 

I think Tina is lying

 

and prals post made me think he was just saying standard town like phrases. as i said that one is a gut reaction. i notice he has been mia since

 

and after all of this i dont trust hallia or you tommy

 

 

happy?

 

Do you think Hallia is lying?

[Darthe]

@Verb, this is probably going to turn on you really quickly.

 

Any reason to not lynch you?

[Darthe]

Also, if you ever got around to that reads list Tommy asked for it would be nice.