[Advanced] Twilight Mafia Game over - Mafia win

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

One upshot to a Dice lynch today is Dice probably spews Des town from his "Tina is buddying town" quip.

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

Vote Count

Dice (2) - Hallia, Tommy

Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov

Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice

Darthe (1) - Dawn

Tina (1) - Lenlo

not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST around 8 hours

Hey Dawn, you should move your vote. I don't think Darthe is a viable lynch today. Have either of Dice or Hallia been on your suspects list?

Same for you, Len. Let's get some convergence.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

I'd prefer we didn't No Lynch. I'd offer myself up before that.

Why?

Think about it.

I have thought about it, and I've failed to come up with any answer that suggests a Pro-town motive for your statement. That's why I asked what your reasoning was.

I hate the No Lynch. Always have. There are very few instances where it is a good play, and this is not one of them. Therefore, I'd accept a lynch on myself before that, as you can always use my interactions with other players to possibly help in future scumhunting. It is not optimal, but it is better than a No Lynch.

Back after the weekend.

I am in fact siding with Des on the no-lynch route. Before the claims, I had scum read on Lenlo and town read on Des, Darthe and Tina. I am not in favor of lynching any of the claims because of the fact that each of the role could prove important to us and do not want to mislynch any of them.

Regarding the claims themselves,

1. Len - His play in the game has not exactly been town-like and I have pointed out my suspicions in the game. His claim came without a lot of pressure and his claimed questions does seem simple and could have been easily faked. However, such a role is quite powerful and extremely useful to town and I feel that we should have some more information before lynching him

2. Des - Again, like Len, his claim came without any pressure. He mentioned about getting the role only after a certain character died, which kind of sounds real, because if he was scum, he could have as well claimed that he holstered. Agreed that it is wifom, but combined with my gameplay read on him, it matches with it

3. Darthe - Have seen evidence of his role in the game. As Des mentioned, may not be vote thief but other similar roles. Among the four, this is the weakest role but could be very useful at the end stages. Looks like a true claim because of the context and the kind of role

4. Tina - This was the only claim that came with somewhat of a pressure. Among the four claims, I feel that her claim is the most townish. This, again, is mainly a gut feel based on her play so far and the context in which she revealed.

In short, I am not ready to vote any of them at the moment.

Weird, I feel the opposite about Tina's claim. I've already discussed why, but you're just using a "gut" feel as your reasoning. My reasoning kinda sucks as well (flavorspec), but it is still more than "gut".

Those that are so strongly against a No Lynch today are prob against No Lynches in general. We've had 4 claims today. No really good lynch candidate. An extra night would likely sort out multiple claims at once, helping to clarify the entire picture in front of us. All the No Lynch does is remove the risk of lynching a townie today or outing another PR, so that tomorrow we can have more info to tackle everything with. Not really any negatives here, not withstanding the likelihood of some uberpowerful role that the scum has that triggers like 7 abilities when town No Lynches.

I'm in this group.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

Okay, I have read the thread and taken notes.

Darthe: I understand what Tommy is saying about his "tone". He is consistent and his outbursts could be from a frustrated townie. But... how hard can it be to be consistent when he just decided that I/Cory/Des are scum on d1 and then not talking about anything other than that? He is in a tunnel where he doesn´t talk about anything than that. Except for the last page when he vote/unvotes Lenlo. Now, he did hint early that he was the one that stole Des´s vote. Not sure if that would indicate being town? Actually, I think all claims have come very quick today.Darthe, you said that your role was Vindictive vote thief. What does vindictive stand for?

Des: There are things that I wonder about him but I still think he is town. Things that I want to ask him is: Why did you list Verbal and Tommy as town in #510? Since you have a town read on Dawn and Clov now - who do you think is mafia instead?

Dawn: Makes no sense whatsoever. Again, I must ask those of you who played with her in her first games - did she play like this as mafia? I do get a newbie town feeling but her reasons for her votes are so bad and she just dropped the ones from yesterday today.

Dice: I didn´t like his Cory vote yesterday. His reason for voting Jack was because it´s "the best choice" and that he didn´t like the Des train. It´s not really a reason. Can´t remember how close to DL it was. Today he thinks Darthe is town and Des is town after his claim. But who is scum? I don´t get a good feeling from Dice. Add to that when he questioned Hallia why she voted for him even though she didn´t. Actually that exchange was strange:

H: Dice voted Cory d1. Ping!

D: Did you vote me because I voted Cory who voted Des even though he said Des was town and then jumped to another vote?

H: I didn´t vote you.

D: No, I was wrong.

Ehm... Hallia didn´t answer and Dice let it go as well.

Tommy: Haven´t done much. Votes Lenlo and says Darthe, Dawn and Pral are town. Have you read the whole thread now?

Hallia: Haven´t said much either. I liked the posts about Dice and Pral but I´m not sure I understand her vote on Dawn.

Verbal: Doesn´t play on weekends but haven´t said much after the weekend either. Have he voted at all?

Pral: I like most of his posts even though I don´t agree with his reason why Darthe wouldn´t want to kill BFG. That is just a big WIFOM.

Lenlo: He voted me in #137 and after that he has not done much but saying over and over again that I´m scum. But then he unvotes me on day 2 because Des says he should??? At the same time he says that Des looks scummier. How does this match? When Des asks him he says that Darthe is horrendous but that he rather vote me, although he is not allowed. Ehm... When Des points out that he hasn´t gone after Darthe at all he suddenly votes Darthe but continue to say that he rather vote me. And then he claims without many votes on him. What in this is town?

Clov: I don´t understand what he was doing on D1. Des says that he scum slipped. Clov tried to explain that if one of the votes on Des was a scum vote then it would have been Cory´s. But he never goes after Cory. Instead he votes Des himself. He also seems to stand on the side line - a comment here, a question there. At the same time I think he have made some logical posts. I have played with him before but don´t know how he played then or if he was town/mafia. I do get bad vibes here.

Did I remember everyone?

As an aside, when I was looking for Dice/Hallia posts I saw this by Tina, she mentions the exact same series of posts from Hallia and Dice. Stronger town read on her for that.

This is probably the biggest flaw in my thinking re: Tina. That was a really good post. I feel like Tina puts in more #work when she is scum, though. This looks like a carefully thought out post, which I'm sure it is. But she's really just doing 2 things in that post:

1. pointing out the obvious

2. asking easy questions

I'm thinking Tina is scum at this point, but I'm happy to vet the role via the plan previously laid out.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

Chinese Fire Drill, as in a quick sudden train on someone else

And Dice you just outed yourself. Fearmonger MOAR plz? "happy to just randomly lynch a townie" Bahahahahaha!!!!

ALL VOTES ON DICE! CHOO CHOO!

Um....he was obviously talking about himself when he said "townie". Perhaps he is scum, but he didn't out himself with this post.

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

This is probably the biggest flaw in my thinking re: Tina. That was a really good post. I feel like Tina puts in more #work when she is scum, though. This looks like a carefully thought out post, which I'm sure it is. But she's really just doing 2 things in that post:

1. pointing out the obvious

2. asking easy questions

I'm thinking Tina is scum at this point, but I'm happy to vet the role via the plan previously laid out.

I'm confused. What do you mean by it being a really good post if you think it's a scum motivated post?

dawnflower8 · April 21, 2014

Vote Count

Dice (2) - Hallia, Tommy

Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov

Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice

Darthe (1) - Dawn

Tina (1) - Lenlo

not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST around 8 hours

Hey Dawn, you should move your vote. I don't think Darthe is a viable lynch today. Have either of Dice or Hallia been on your suspects list?

Same for you, Len. Let's get some convergence.

Yeah, I probably should, since I seem to be the only person with Darthe as a top suspect besides Despo...and he hasn't even voted yet.

I'd rather lynch Hallia than Dice, but I don't think that's that much of a possibility at this point so I think I will Vote Dice. He's been acting scummy lately. Might change this vote to Lenlo, though, but I think it's more likely Dice will get lynched.

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

We've got 6 hours left before EOD.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

This is probably the biggest flaw in my thinking re: Tina. That was a really good post. I feel like Tina puts in more #work when she is scum, though. This looks like a carefully thought out post, which I'm sure it is. But she's really just doing 2 things in that post:

1. pointing out the obvious

2. asking easy questions

I'm thinking Tina is scum at this point, but I'm happy to vet the role via the plan previously laid out.

I'm confused. What do you mean by it being a really good post if you think it's a scum motivated post?

Scum make good posts as well. It is those posts that fool people into clearing them (or having a strong town read on them). I think this post of Tina might be exactly that.

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

Okay. Who are you comfortable voting today?

Hallia · April 21, 2014

I'm 99% sure Tina is town.

Vote Count

Dice (2) - Hallia, Tommy
Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov
Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice
Darthe (1) - Dawn
Tina (1) - Lenlo

not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST around 8 hours

Hey Dawn, you should move your vote. I don't think Darthe is a viable lynch today. Have either of Dice or Hallia been on your suspects list?

Same for you, Len. Let's get some convergence.

Yeah, I probably should, since I seem to be the only person with Darthe as a top suspect besides Despo...and he hasn't even voted yet.

I'd rather lynch Hallia than Dice, but I don't think that's that much of a possibility at this point so I think I will Vote Dice. He's been acting scummy lately. Might change this vote to Lenlo, though, but I think it's more likely Dice will get lynched.

I'm still leery of Dawn. I think this is likely a scum bus vote this close to the deadline.

dawnflower8 · April 21, 2014

I'm 99% sure Tina is town.

Vote Count

Dice (2) - Hallia, Tommy

Lenlo (2) - Tina, Clov

Pral (2) - Darthe, Dice

Darthe (1) - Dawn

Tina (1) - Lenlo

not voting - Des, Verbal, Pral

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Deadline Monday 5 pm EST around 8 hours

Hey Dawn, you should move your vote. I don't think Darthe is a viable lynch today. Have either of Dice or Hallia been on your suspects list?

Same for you, Len. Let's get some convergence.

Yeah, I probably should, since I seem to be the only person with Darthe as a top suspect besides Despo...and he hasn't even voted yet.

I'd rather lynch Hallia than Dice, but I don't think that's that much of a possibility at this point so I think I will Vote Dice. He's been acting scummy lately. Might change this vote to Lenlo, though, but I think it's more likely Dice will get lynched.

I'm still leery of Dawn. I think this is likely a scum bus vote this close to the deadline.

What about me makes me seem scummy to you? And are you ever going to explain why you voted me earlier in the game giving no reason whatsoever?

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

Can you expand on the Tina is town read? If there's one thing you think points to Dawn being scum rather than a confused townie, what do you think it is? (I'm trying to get you to talk so I can tell if you're scum. Please talk more.)

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

I'm 99% sure Tina is town.

Might as well say you're certain......can you add some color to this statement?

Hallia · April 21, 2014

I think it's her style that throws me, my initial vote on her was because I didn't have much else to go on at the time, my reads differed from hers and I was hoping to get some reaction.

I can add more, but I don't know that it's wise to do so.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

Okay. Who are you comfortable voting today?

Dice or Hallia today, and if we don't get any confirmation on Tina tonight, prob her tomorrow.

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

I think it's her style that throws me, my initial vote on her was because I didn't have much else to go on at the time, my reads differed from hers and I was hoping to get some reaction.

I can add more, but I don't know that it's wise to do so.

After that statement, I'm thinking you might as well.....

Darthe · April 21, 2014

Vote Count

Jack (3) - Cory, Tina, Des

Tina (1) - Jack

Salami (1) - Hallia

Des-Des (1) - Dawn

Verbal (1) - Clov

Not Voting - BFG, Darthe, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral, Lenlo

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Vote Count

Des-Des (3) - Dawn, Darthe, Cory

Jack (1) - Tina

Tina (1) - Jack

Salami (1) - Hallia

Verbal (1) - Clov

Clov (1) - Des

Not Voting - BFG, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral, Lenlo

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Vote Count

Salami (4) - Hallia, Tina, Des, Cory

Des-Des (2) - Dawn, Darthe

Tina (2) - Jack, Lenlo

Verbal (1) - Clov

Not Voting - BFG, Dice, Salami, Verbal, Pral

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch

Here we go. I left out the third of these because it didn't show as much transition. These are all in the past three pages and 20 hours.

This is very odd and will likely be a big deal in the late game. It also bodes ill for a mafia lynch today.

Here is something I have noticed over time. If you have three or more trains like this on D1 then one of them is mafia.

Tina/Cory/Des are all voting together and all opposing one another at various points. However we only see discrepency in the pattern when Des is the leading train. That is what I call an oddity.

Darthe diggity dawg, do you still think this is of interest? I see my (Salami's) wagon had 4 at some point, and I believe Hallia started it as a joke but stayed there anyway. Lemme check.

It still really bothers me at a gut level. I don't really have any way of getting around the whole claims and flip thing but idk at this point. Just some really bad looking town play imo.

I think based on your quotes I would rather see us lynch hally than dice but I am cool with either.

Hallia · April 21, 2014

Okay. Who are you comfortable voting today?

Dice or Hallia today, and if we don't get any confirmation on Tina tonight, prob her tomorrow.

Setting up lynches?

Verbal32 · April 21, 2014

Okay. Who are you comfortable voting today?

Dice or Hallia today, and if we don't get any confirmation on Tina tonight, prob her tomorrow.

Setting up lynches?

You haven't been reading my thought process on Tina, have you?

dawnflower8 · April 21, 2014

I think it's her style that throws me, my initial vote on her was because I didn't have much else to go on at the time, my reads differed from hers and I was hoping to get some reaction.

I can add more, but I don't know that it's wise to do so.

I probably shouldn't criticize you for giving a bad reason like this, because this was how I was accusing people at the beginning of the game....

Tommyrod · April 21, 2014

Hallia: I dislike the cryptic games. Smother us with truth bombs.

Niniel · April 21, 2014

Both Verbal and Tommy should get a time out. I could easily vote one of them if people want to join me.

Darthe · April 21, 2014

Both Verbal and Tommy should get a time out. I could easily vote one of them if people want to join me.

I would lynch anyone in a heartbeat for saying this if they didn't have an incredibly provable claim to back it up.

Niniel · April 21, 2014

Well, now I have. Darthe, tell me what you think about Tom and Verb.

[Advanced] Twilight Mafia Game over - Mafia win

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