[Advanced] House MD Mafia - Mafia Victory!

[Tommyrod]

I like those reads.  Too many nulls, but quite a few of the stances you did take match very well with how I see the game.  Especially Dap.  I'd still say I lean scum on him though because his early game was so bad.

 

Right after that Turin post, Wombat replies. Is this scum/scum interaction or scum trying to buddy a townie? It looks more pointed than his interaction with TG. 

[Tommyrod]

Quick read updates.

 

Scum reads:  TG, AJ

 

Prob scum: Dap and Tommy

 

Town: Despo

 

Prob Town: Wombat, Turin

 

LOL

 

LOL PEACE

 

LOL

[Tommyrod]

 

 

Oh so your completely ok with reads so long as they match you own?

 

 

Is that some kind of shock to you?

 

 

vote tg

To even the trains

I think Pral will give good info on AJ though

 

Gross.  I know you like competing trains, but this is something else entirely.  You are abdicating all responsibility for both your vote and your nudge.

 

 

I'm starting to see a trend that is throwing me off a bit.  It seems lately I've been the favorite player to give "town" reads on.  It's happening in many games lately.  Not a big deal right?  Wrong.  It's distorting my reads on people.  We all naturally like who agree with us. 

 

I also can't tell if giving me town reads tool for the scum team.  Tommy has done it as scum before.  If I'm on the wrong track in my own hunting, others giving me a town read give more strength to my scum targets. 

 

So..I'm trying to work that out. 

 

Maybe you're just playing more townie lately.  I haven't been playing much lately though so idk.

 

 

I could easily see scum!Peace thinking "what's a good way to distance from bros? Ah yeah, try to question them for clearing me." This response from Wombat is bizarre, especially combined with the "Peace is crushing this game" or whatever he said a few days earlier.

 

 

unvote

Vote: TG

 

 

Cuz Pralaya train smells like week-old fish.

 

So here he votes for TG...

 

Len and Dap are top two btw.

And lists two townies as his top scum reads... yet is voting for TG (???)

 

Anecdotal meta ftw!  Welcome to the scum pile, Tommy.

 

Adds me to his scum pile for some half assed reason...

 

Len, Dap, Des, Tommy, possibly Mish or AJ

And this list is probably all town. 

 

 

Let's see where he ends up on TG.

[Tommyrod]

Why can't we just lynch Des?

 

 

Screw it.

 

unvote

Vote: Des

 

 

So he was voting for TG for all of three hours while I was pushing the Pral wagon. Wombat/TG can easily be scum/scum.

[Tommyrod]

I'm going to go with my gut and trust in the Des. That was a good sum up on Pral, Tawmeh. unvote

Vote Pral

 

This kind of post is why Hallia always looks scummy to me.

[Tommyrod]

If we were at must-lynch, I wouldn't even feel bad if we lynched Hallia and she flipped town. She's a disaster.

[Tommyrod]

 

Catching up now.  Jeebus my night last night was horrible, came home to my dog having stolen a can of oatmeal, a can of raisins, and a huge 3lb tub of protein powder off the counter and then he went to town.    Looked like a freakin' disaster zone in my living room, kitchen, and dining room.  And of course I'm on single dad duty this week with my 1 year old son.  At least he is a great kid and happily sat eating puffs while I cleaned.

 

 

 

EBWOP: @Tommy: Not sure yet about Hallia. I think she is sliding, but I don't think that makes her scummy yet, especially not in a game that moves as quickly as this one. I'd say we push her to give specificopinions for a day or two and it should become much clearer.

Noted. Please keep me abreast of the situation. You're in charge of that. Anyone else pinging you recently that you haven't mentioned? What can you tell me about Amega?

 

 

Amega looks scummy/lazy to me.  My other reads are as I've stated. 

 

 

I actually agree with this, this is a really bad p0ast from Dap. But what I really don't like is this:
 

"Turrible is despos word

Why are you using the game weirdness

It's really odd"

This looks like Dap is easing into linking Des and TG, which is really bad if he already knows TG is gonna flip scum.

 

 

I kinda want to follow up on this.

 

 

I don't remember the follow up.

 

Thing is, people can say 'oh you have to many nulls', but it's day 1.  Anyone who has everyone pegged is either lying out their teeth or scumy mcscummerson in my opinion.

 

Really?  Then why do you have a null lean on so many of these people who you think are "lying out their teeth or scummy"?  If you really think that you shouldn't have them as null.

 

2 things. 

1) Its abit difficult to get a good read on someone when half the game has less posts than the mod.

2) Its D1 and no one has been lynched yet. The moment someone is lynched and we get a flip and are able to see how everyone interacted with someone we know to be town/scum/thirdparty, is the instant that list changes. Until then, im bad at reading people without something to go off of.

 

2 things

1) I don't like the timing with this post coming right after Hally's post and saying something very similar.

2) Why aren't you calling people out with low post counts and trying to engage them?  And should we expect more from you tomorrow then?

 

I'm starting to see a trend that is throwing me off a bit.  It seems lately I've been the favorite player to give "town" reads on.  It's happening in many games lately.  Not a big deal right?  Wrong.  It's distorting my reads on people.  We all naturally like who agree with us. 

 

I also can't tell if giving me town reads tool for the scum team.  Tommy has done it as scum before.  If I'm on the wrong track in my own hunting, others giving me a town read give more strength to my scum targets. 

 

So..I'm trying to work that out. 

 

I'm most susceptible to buddying when I already have a town read on someone.  Like how AJ blindsided me in the recently ended OUAT game. 

 

Brain is sorta fried after studying for my test tomorrow morning (wish me luck!)

BFG is being moved into my town pile. Looks like she's starting to ramp up which is a good sign, she's a smart cookie. I'm curious as to her wanting Mish's opinion on me specifically but I'm sure there is something logical behind it. Her looking for these types of connections gives me good vibes.

Len's read list was kinda meh but I can agree with Hallia that having more nulls than anything on D1 isn't really a bad thing. We can press for a more definitive stance later if it continues on this path however.

Turin raises some good points. I can agree with him somewhat on Tommy, he's a player I don't think I'll ever fully trust. Some of his comments towards me feeling borderline like a pocketing attempt but more will be needed before I call him scum. This could also just be paranoia on my part. I also agree with his statement that if Des is a legit Vig that killing Darthe over personal issues isn't very helpful for town.

Dap's post is interesting in regards to Mish. The connection he points out disagrees with my town read on Darthe but it does bring light to Mish's vote on TG who I am also town reading. Looking back when I questioned her on if she still found TG scummy after his later content her answer wasn't very satisfactory. She hasn't contributed much (this could be due to internet issues) but it looks like she is parking her vote. I'm also curious as to what info Dap thinks will be gained on me via Pral.

Reads:

Peace - Leaning town. He's made a few good points here and there and seems in tune with the thread. His suspicion of me in unvoting TG I find natural and shows that he is looking more for motive than semantic arguments.

Wombat - Also making good observations. Darthe's post on him has swayed me a bit to think better of him. We are opposite on a lot of stances thus far but I think the game still being in an early phase is a factor of this.

Darthe - Was leaning scum on him earlier for the quick turnaround on Mish but his contributions since have been sound. Glad that he is engaging more. Town lean.

Tommy - hesitant town lean. His cases on people look good but I wouldn't expect him to push weak angles as scum. Some of buddying comments make me uneasy but I will reserve judgement until more info can be gathered.

BFG - seems to be ramping up and looking critically for connections. Has a good mind for game solving and that is the vibe I get here. Town lean.

Despo - Vig claim aside I think we are seeing the narcissistic side of town Des who generally doesn't back down from his arguments and sees things his way. His omgus suspicion of those countering him doesn't read to me as flailing but more as conf-bias due to his innocence.

TG - early game posting was pretty suspect but I think he has settled in after regathering himself. I have liked nearly all of his posts in the later part of this Day. Leaning town.

Turin: Looks to be tunneling a bit on Despo but I liked his reads list and his analysis of one of his scum reads' list as well. Hopefully he'll be able to post more around work. Leaning town.

Dap - null. Found him scummy earlier for lack of content IMO of his posts but his recent WoT is better. I liked the points he raised about Mish.

Kaylee - null. General summarization and parroting that I find the norm for her play. She's getting replaced? Sorry about the wrist   will reserve judgement until her slot is filled.

Lenlo - null. Some people are scum reading him but I'm not very convinced. Between him and TG I think TG won the exchange but that doesn't mean they aren't town/town. The joking tone is typical from what I know so that's null as well.

Amega - I don't really remember anything he's done but call Despo a girl lol. Funny, but somewhat troubling. Null to scum lean.

Pral - his responses don't really add up to me. I think his idea that Des and Darthe are scum/scum is really stretching credibility. Still support this lynch 100%

Mish - was a town lean early on but I am beginning to doubt that. People seem to be a little leery of her which makes me reconsider a bit. Dap brought up good points and I find her vote being left on TG despite his later content to be a bit suspect. I don't feel like she's produced much in game activity or direction. Leaning scum at this point.

 

I like the thought you put into your list.  Don't like that you felt you needed to defend the number of nulls you have in light of Lenlo and Hallia getting heat over it.

 

Well, take a note of the ones who are pushing the train and from whose train the attention was taken off.

And, after my flip, have a close look because that will give a clear picture of who the scum is. And those are the same names I am taking, my flip will just confirm it. 

 

Scummy.

 

 

Anyone else find it funny that Wombat fos'd Dap for voting TG for competing trains (and supposedly ditching responsibility for his vote), and yet he swaps to the TG train because of even moar dubious reasons? Switching trains because you don't want to share it with some of your scum reads implies that you also might be self-conscious of how others perceive you, which is an obvious scum trait.

 

Scumbat dropping scumtells like Hansel and Scummy Gretel.

 

Troll.

 

 

I didn't like Daps vote on me because it looked like Dap was catching up and posting as he caught up, and then he voted me before finishing.  He also tried really hard to take an unaccountable position with that vote, complete scum move.  You gave good reasons for not like the Dap vote, but it also looks like voting me you were trying to defend Pralaya IMO. 

 

 

Somebody mentioned some of the occupations of people?  I'm a physicist.

 

 

What kind of physics?

 

 

Also, come vote Des.  No one wants to lynch scumlo today.

 

 

Computational biophysics.  Focusing on two areas, 1) looking at using modeling to predict folding pathways and native states and 2)examining the effects of mutation (both evolutionarily advantageous and also disease associated) by plotting changes in protein dynamics in a reduced dimensional space

 

Seeing a pattern here?

[Tommyrod]

 

Ok I'm just gonna ramble-write while I read up from page 26. Hopefully I'll be able to do a full reread later before deadline, but since my internet is still meh I'm not sure how much mobile data I have left.

 

I really like TG's post #511 with his case on Len, and it made me feel way better about him now. It's actually a really good case and Len pings me much now.

Pral's defending his "omg Des is scum for voting many people" = ick. I don't feel conbinved Des is town, but the votehopping is a giant null tell. "That shot is never coming to fruition?" Ok so mafia has a roleblocker, good to know. I see why Pral's got the votes he does now, that was a major slip.

Aj's #519, hm, this post feels weird. Feels like he's both accusing Des and Pral at the same time and also slightly defending both. Wich is strange since his vote is on Pral who is going after Des.

Tommy's post #521 is similar to the recap he gave on the Pral case, so he's standing his ground wich is good, slight town tell there.

Len's next post is even more ick, again saying he voted TG for more than the psot deletion, but not stating what those reasons are. This guy needs more votes. Ok finally gets around to saying it was TG's changing his mind about Darthe, after TG almost spoonfeeds him that. Still not good.

What does >rand mean?

Pral feels like he's desperatley trying to get away from his slip. Row row row your boat.

Ugh @ Des wanting Darthe out of the game for personal reasons. Plus points to tommy for how he handled it.

Double ugh @ Darthe for pushing more on Des like that

Don't feel so good about Tommy's interactions with TG though; feels like slight buddying and after watching parts of the SW mafia I don't feel comfy with Town Leader Tommy. Especially since giving TG the "responsibility" of looking at Hallia ties TG and Hallia together in a way I don't feel a townie should encourage.

I like Wombat's point on AJ in #565. Generally town feel on his catchup posts.

Darthe's post on Wombat and comments about Dap linking TG and Des gives him townie points.

I like Tommy's post with reads #590, even if I don't agree with several of his reads

AJ's post #597 is jsut him answering others, looks like trying to seem active without actually contributing

Dap has a post questioning the timing of my TG vote; Turin made me look at the post again with his TMI-comment.

Dap never draws any conclusions of that post though... Also looks like "tring to seem active without doing anything".

Len's #607 with his reads is ick, too many null reads and not taking a stance and generally following others opinions.

Turins catchup post #609 is good, townish lean.

Another short unrelated comment post by Hallia. Wish she's give more opinions.

Ah, here comes Dap with a conclusion, kinda. His other post makes more sense now that I see the whole thing. Town lean for that.

BFG's #617; I found Csarmi null, leaning scum on AJ.

Len backs off TG over to Pral, making Pral the largest wagon. Ok that messed with my reads. I don't think they are both mafia after that. Crap.

Dap voting TG to even the trains slightly bothers me. Made me go back and look at his post deeper. He agrees with tommy that TG, Pral and Wombat are good lynches today, and adds me and Darthe to the list. He hasn't even mentioned Pral in that post. And how can he think both me and TG are mafia? The logical thing after his post would be to vote me. But instead he votes TG to "even out the trains". He doesn't even explain how he thinks, with the interactions that's been between me and TG, TG and Darthe, Wombat and everyone and Pral and everyone, how the comes to those conclusions and who he thinks are most likely teammates.Town lean withdrawn, over on slight scum lean.

Townish post from BFG with reads, I like.

Good posts from Peace.

Aj makes a read post, don't know what to think about it. He accuses me of vote-parking, has done exactly the same thing on Pral himself. His scums reads are amega, who's extremely inactive and lurking, Pral who he's had his vote on for quite some time, and me now. Ugh, my gut doesn't like it but I can't put my finger on why.

More solid posting from BFG.

Pral's attitude is much more like how I expect to see him as town than mafia. If he were mafia I think he'd be fighting harder. Makes me lean town on him actually.

I don't know wether to laugh or smack Tommy over his attempt to link me to Pral.

Ugh @ AJ's not so subtle pushing of "let's just lynch pral and get it over with" and both his and Hallia's buddying of Tommy.And Hallia's putting responsbility for her vote on Tommy.

 

 

 

Ok so reads based on the pages I read up on:

 

Pral, I actually read him more as town.

Len, mafia.

Aj, mafia

Hallia, potentially mafia

Dap, leaning mafia

Wombat, townish

Tommy, alhough I don't trust him, he's more in the null pile for now as others look way more mafia

Des, townish although stubborn as heck

Darthe, trollish town

Amega ????

Kaylee/Dice null

Turin slightly town

Peace, town

BFG solid town

TG, moved over into town pile

 

I am honestly not convinced by either of the big trains right now. I'd be most willing to move onto Len or Aj.

 

Unvote

 

Vote Len

 

 

I know it's late to start a new train, but am really, really not feeling any of the trains right now. Will hopefully be around 6-7 hours to consolidate if needed.

After all the crazy train switching and boorish stances Wombat has had in this game, your only thoughts on him are "he had townish catchup posts?"

 

He's been popping on and off my radar like crazy. He's one of the most polarizing figures in this thread. And you think that's just... not worth mentioning, normal for him, or what?

 

You blew my mind with that one.

 

 

 

@Mish, >rand means "greater than random chance".  In other words, a person is more likely to be something.  So >rand town means they are more likely to be town.  Kinda a way to say lean.

 

 

 

 

After all the crazy train switching and boorish stances Wombat has had in this game, your only thoughts on him are "he had townish catchup posts?"

 

He's been popping on and off my radar like crazy. He's one of the most polarizing figures in this thread. And you think that's just... not worth mentioning, normal for him, or what?

 

You blew my mind with that one.

 

 

I liked Mish's catchup.  Going post by post showed insight into her thinking and gives me an overall town read on her.  She hasn't been precipitous this game either, something that I would view her as more likely to do as scum. 

 

 

"She hasn't been precipitous this game either, something that I would view her as more likely to do as scum."

 

[Tommyrod]

TG wagon is go

He's been about as UTR as is possible since he wriggled away on D1

[peacesells]

I can vote TG today.

[Tommyrod]

I can vote TG today.

 

[keyholder21]

Official Vote Count:

 

Tommy (1) - Dice

Dice (1) - Hallia

TG (1) - Tommy

 

Not Voting (7) - Peace, Turin, Mish, Rags, BFG, TG, Lenlo

 

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

 

Deadline: Monday, March 10 @ 9PM CDT

http://www.timeandda...sg=End of Day 4

[Hallia]

Doing a reread.  23 pages in and what's stood out:

 

Turin - Accused Des of setting up lynches D1

 

Mish - Still has that townie vibe

 

Amega/Rags - 12 pages in and I didn't really...even...notice you were in the game? - 23 pages in says 'sorry for lurking, haven't seen anything worth commenting on'

but there had been quite a lot.

 

BFG - LD

 

TG - Going back to D1, LD was mentioned, and passed off the chance that  Pral was asking for a LD statement.  I think it's funny, because turns out there is one.  Seems like he might've known.  He also tried to build a case against Darthe D1

 

Lenlo - 10 pages in nothing but fluffiness, eventually moved on to arguing about TG's deleted/edited post and the meaning behind it.  Distracting at best.

[BFG]

I like your Hallia vote though...but that's tough because I think you are scum Tommy.

 

 

Hallia's been scummy lurking all game.  I don't remember her taking one stand.

 

Tommy has done everything he can do to sow confusion and take the game off track.

 

 

 

Scum chat last night:

 

"Damn what are we gonna do? BFG really borked our plan, and there are multiple investigators."

 

"Wombat was the only one of us that could post semi-convincingly to begin with."

"Who are we going to push for a mislynch today? I think Tommy cleared Lenlo somehow, so that's out. Hallia is apparently town. Mish is clear as well."

 

"I really wish Turin wasn't mafia; we could push him for not doing diddly squat in this game, but maybe that's just obvious from where I sit."

 

"LolTurin. Tommy is just having chuckles in the thread, and people think he's always scum, so let's gradually push him."

 

"Yeah that sounds good, do you have any somewhat coherent reasoning we can justify it with?"

 

"Nah multiple dead townies had cleared him and he knew Wombat was a liar but nobody cares, they're not paying attention, just tunnel on Tommy."

 

"Yeah it's the zero-points Tommy push plan (ZPTPP). We can't fail!"

 

 

 

I can vote TG today.

Peace, I thought Tommy was your strongest read, why are you willing to vote with him? Have your reads changed since Day 2, think I remember Hallia and Tommy being your strongest suspects then as well.

 

 

I'll hopefully have chance to reread tonight.

[peacesells]

Tommy is my strongest read.  I'm just not gonna rush this vote today. 

[michellem]

Nobody ever explained to me what precipitous means, I think.

 

 

So now I'm back on townie vibe eh Hallia?

 

Starting my reread now, but it'll take me hours to get it done. All the effin WoTs.

[Hallia]

At page 23, I had the town read on you, gonna continue when we finish moving furniture

[michellem]

I am WIFOMing myself in circles reading through now. Blah. My head seriously hurts. I am really struggling to get a good grip on this game, my internet falling out really made me loose my connection to the game.

[michellem]

I can't remember if Tommy quoted this. Seemed worth nothing:

 

The VC Wombat quoted:

fficial Vote Count:
 
Darthe (5) - Leno, AJ, Despo, TG, Kaylee
Despo (2) - Darthe. Turin
Mish (1) -  Wombat
TG (2) - Mish, Tommy

 
Not Voting (6) - Amega, Hallia, Dap, BFG, Pral, Peace
 
With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.
 
No deadline has been set yet - but expect one soon.

 

Wombat's comment to it:

"Darthe train is SOOOOO dirty."

 

We know AJ and Des wasn't dirty. That leaves TG, Kaylee/Dice and Lenlo. Could be distancing. I highly doubt all three are mafia though.

 

And then he posted this list:

"Despo, AJ, Dap, Lenlo"

 

Three we know are town. That makes Lenlo look pretty horrible IMO.

[michellem]

I'm wondering if Wombat's "Peace is town"-statements are buddying in the same way he did with Darthe. I don't get a mafia feel from Peace, so either he's gotten reeeeeeally good at being mafia, or my gut is correct and he's town.

[Lenlo]

It makes me look horrible? It's completely possible he listed all town in his scum list because all of us were looking pretty scummy at the time. Woulda been relatively easy lynches.

[michellem]

Ok I had to give up. I've been hardcore skimming and still it's taken me eight hours to get through eight pages, skipping psots from dead players. My mind does not work. I'm skipping to doing individual ISO's instead. Doing Turin right now, and he's climbing high on my scumdar, he's tunneling on Des, goes after alot of people now flipped town, softly defends Wombat in at least one instance, he had what looked like a bussing vote on Wombat, softly cast suspicioun on me even after it was pretty clear I was town with my role, ... . Kaylee/Dice will be next, as every single one of Kaylee's posts that I read pinged me alot and I have a nagging feeling that Dice has stayed very "in the middle". . Right now I'm thinking Turin/Dice/TG. Tenative town lean on Tommy.

[michellem]

*eight hours to get through 30 pages

[michellem]

Ok seriously everyone needs to do ISO reads on both Turin and Kaylee/Dice. Especially Kaylee/Dice are so obvious mafia it almost hurts. Wow.

[michellem]

And Rags, who replaced in, has three pages more of posts than Turin. Wooow. Ok I'm gonna do Hallia first because I'm too tired for four pages right now.