[Advanced] Settlers of Catan Mafia - Game Over

[BFG]

What would be your response to Wombat's theory that the defense Pral used at L-1 was way too flimsy for scum to use and think they'll get away with it?

 

Quoted for reference:

 

I've been rather confused about this game lately.  I've got some rather strong reads, but they don't make sense with the way I thought the game was setup.  I've got strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.  Both of them have made sketchy hammers (Des D1, Goldeneyes D2) and at best neither of them have been making any sense.  Most of the time, however, I find them downright scummy.  I also have a strong town read on Ishy.  Everything he's been saying makes sense to me, and I was pretty sure that he was the one who gave me the potion.  His sheeping of me did bother me, but it makes sense if he viewed me as town.  I find it more likely that he is genuine than that he has been working this whole game to buddy me for a critical vote.  I also, have a strong town read on Pralaya.  Although he doesn't post much and his attitude towards activity is irritating, his analysis is pretty good.  He's looked over the votes like I have, and he's noticed some of the same things I have.  Finally, I don't think that if he were scum, he would so starkly disbelieve Ishy's claim.  The scum know Ishy can give out items, so discrediting that part of his claim is a sucker's play.  I doubt scum would do it at L - 1.

 

...

 

 

I'm not sure I understand it. 

 

If Ishy and Pral were both mafia then it would seem a strange reaction for Pral to have, but I don't follow that the same holds true if Ishy was town and Pral mafia, since there's no reason to assume the mafia would know that Ishy can give out items any more than town would unless they'd been given items.  So as a reaction it would seem null either way. 

[Pralaya]

Because I think it must be a 3 man team and since I don't believe it's a Des/Golden/Ishy team it must have Pral on.  (Reasons back to 3 man instead of 2 man include last nights no NK, if its a 3 man team then that puts us at mylo again which seems advantageous to mafia as there's a higher chance of mis-lynching, also if it was a 2 man team then that means at least 2 Town PR, which seems normal and doesn't warrant an understrength mafia, especially given that other games I've played where it's 2 Town PR and this many players then there have been negative things for Town such as Lovers, or vanilla turned SK)  The negative stuff for us have been the mod-kills (which doesn't count towards balance) and the short deadline Day 1... ).

So, if you are saying it is a 3-man team and you are thinking it is me and Des, who is the third?

 

I also find his apparent reluctance to vote Des yesterday strange, (although possibly null given Hoofs reluctance to vote somebody as well.  Des voting Pral is also null given his propensity for bussing)

Eh? That doesn't even make sense. So, you say that I am mafia and there were two mafia trains running. Either of the two mafia will be killed. At that point, I had a "reluctance to vote Des"? Why? When anyway one of the mafia was dying?

 

.  And going back to Day 2, he's been confident all along that Golden is mafia but waited Day 2 to vote until somebody else had voted first.

I had already voted Leelou on Day 1. Why would I be careful about voting him Day 2? Doesn't make sense again.

 

You are basically trying up to come with flimsy reasons to justify your vote on me.

[BFG]

 

Because I think it must be a 3 man team and since I don't believe it's a Des/Golden/Ishy team it must have Pral on.  (Reasons back to 3 man instead of 2 man include last nights no NK, if its a 3 man team then that puts us at mylo again which seems advantageous to mafia as there's a higher chance of mis-lynching, also if it was a 2 man team then that means at least 2 Town PR, which seems normal and doesn't warrant an understrength mafia, especially given that other games I've played where it's 2 Town PR and this many players then there have been negative things for Town such as Lovers, or vanilla turned SK)  The negative stuff for us have been the mod-kills (which doesn't count towards balance) and the short deadline Day 1... ).

So, if you are saying it is a 3-man team and you are thinking it is me and Des, who is the third?

 

 

I keep changing my mind on the third.  But Ishy had the chance to hammer you yesterday (if the 3 man team was Des/Golden/Ishy) and didn't, hence that isn't the team. 

 

 

I also find his apparent reluctance to vote Des yesterday strange, (although possibly null given Hoofs reluctance to vote somebody as well.  Des voting Pral is also null given his propensity for bussing)

Eh? That doesn't even make sense. So, you say that I am mafia and there were two mafia trains running. Either of the two mafia will be killed. At that point, I had a "reluctance to vote Des"? Why? When anyway one of the mafia was dying?

 

 

Doesn't make sense to me for mafia to avoid voting each other in those situations, but Peace did it as mafia (with Des in Walking Dead), so it's not something that mafia won't do. 

 

 

.  And going back to Day 2, he's been confident all along that Golden is mafia but waited Day 2 to vote until somebody else had voted first.

I had already voted Leelou on Day 1. Why would I be careful about voting him Day 2? Doesn't make sense again.

 

You are basically trying up to come with flimsy reasons to justify your vote on me.

 

 

Then why did you wait so long Day 2/3 to vote Golden? 

 

 

 

I'm pointing out things in your behavior that make no sense to me.

[Pralaya]

 

So, if you are saying it is a 3-man team and you are thinking it is me and Des, who is the third?

 

I keep changing my mind on the third.  But Ishy had the chance to hammer you yesterday (if the 3 man team was Des/Golden/Ishy) and didn't, hence that isn't the team. 

 

 

Changing your mind on who? Who are your suspects?

 

 

Doesn't make sense to me for mafia to avoid voting each other in those situations, but Peace did it as mafia (with Des in Walking Dead), so it's not something that mafia won't do. 

 

Don't know what Peace did or not. But, as I said, it does not make sense nor is it any sense to use it as one of your reasons. Like I said, very flimsy reasoning and forcefully trying to justify your vote me. 

 

 

 

 

.  And going back to Day 2, he's been confident all along that Golden is mafia but waited Day 2 to vote until somebody else had voted first.

 

I had already voted Leelou on Day 1. Why would I be careful about voting him Day 2? Doesn't make sense again.

 

You are basically trying up to come with flimsy reasons to justify your vote on me.

 

Then why did you wait so long Day 2/3 to vote Golden? 

I'm pointing out things in your behavior that make no sense to me.

 

Er, you have the answer in the posts that you quoted earlier. I clearly mentioned that I had two suspects - AJ and GE and I was looking at who looked scum. The post where I vote GE, that kind of confirmed my suspicions.

 

Again, very weak justification

 

 

 

[Pralaya]

I keep changing my mind on the third.  But Ishy had the chance to hammer you yesterday (if the 3 man team was Des/Golden/Ishy) and didn't, hence that isn't the team.

You are not answering it properly. Changing your mind on who? Who are your suspects?

 

 

Doesn't make sense to me for mafia to avoid voting each other in those situations, but Peace did it as mafia (with Des in Walking Dead), so it's not something that mafia won't do.

Don't know what Peace did or not. But, as I said, it does not make sense nor is it any sense to use it as one of your reasons. Like I said, very flimsy reasoning and forcefully trying to justify your vote me.

 

 

Then why did you wait so long Day 2/3 to vote Golden? 

I'm pointing out things in your behavior that make no sense to me.

 

Er, you have the answer in the posts that you quoted earlier. I clearly mentioned that I had two suspects - AJ and GE and I was looking at who looked scum. The post where I vote GE, that kind of confirmed my suspicions and I explain why.

 

Again, very weak justifications

[Pralaya]

Ignore the first post

[WWWwombat]

 

So why exactly are you guys voting the guy who was the countertain to the "Alpha Wolf?"

 

 

I have no idea what that word even means.

 

 

counter train?

 

Because I think it must be a 3 man team and since I don't believe it's a Des/Golden/Ishy team it must have Pral on.  (Reasons back to 3 man instead of 2 man include last nights no NK, if its a 3 man team then that puts us at mylo again which seems advantageous to mafia as there's a higher chance of mis-lynching, also if it was a 2 man team then that means at least 2 Town PR, which seems normal and doesn't warrant an understrength mafia, especially given that other games I've played where it's 2 Town PR and this many players then there have been negative things for Town such as Lovers, or vanilla turned SK)  The negative stuff for us have been the mod-kills (which doesn't count towards balance) and the short deadline Day 1... ). 

 

I also find his apparent reluctance to vote Des yesterday strange, (although possibly null given Hoofs reluctance to vote somebody as well.  Des voting Pral is also null given his propensity for bussing).  And going back to Day 2, he's been confident all along that Golden is mafia but waited Day 2 to vote until somebody else had voted first.

 

 

Basing a scum read on what you're assuming about the setup is backwards.  When I threw out my setup assumptions and went with voting the scummy guy, we lynched the mafia Alpha Wolf.  The scarce nightkills is not a reason to believe that the mafia have 3 members.  Given Des' flip, it's more likely to indicate some sort of recruitment ability.  And town has gimped PRs this game.  The cop is the most important town power role in a traditional mafia game.  Not having one is a huge handicap.

 

As for Pralaya's reluctance to vote Des, I think it's more endemic of his reluictance to vote in general than his feelings on Des.  Pralaya has been voting late and voting alove lately.  I hate this habit as it is highly anti-town, but nonetheless, it doesn't mean he is mafia.  Townies often do anti-town things for various crappy reasons.

 

 

 

What would be your response to Wombat's theory that the defense Pral used at L-1 was way too flimsy for scum to use and think they'll get away with it?

 

Quoted for reference:

 

I've been rather confused about this game lately.  I've got some rather strong reads, but they don't make sense with the way I thought the game was setup.  I've got strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.  Both of them have made sketchy hammers (Des D1, Goldeneyes D2) and at best neither of them have been making any sense.  Most of the time, however, I find them downright scummy.  I also have a strong town read on Ishy.  Everything he's been saying makes sense to me, and I was pretty sure that he was the one who gave me the potion.  His sheeping of me did bother me, but it makes sense if he viewed me as town.  I find it more likely that he is genuine than that he has been working this whole game to buddy me for a critical vote.  I also, have a strong town read on Pralaya.  Although he doesn't post much and his attitude towards activity is irritating, his analysis is pretty good.  He's looked over the votes like I have, and he's noticed some of the same things I have.  Finally, I don't think that if he were scum, he would so starkly disbelieve Ishy's claim.  The scum know Ishy can give out items, so discrediting that part of his claim is a sucker's play.  I doubt scum would do it at L - 1.

 

...

 

 

I'm not sure I understand it. 

 

If Ishy and Pral were both mafia then it would seem a strange reaction for Pral to have, but I don't follow that the same holds true if Ishy was town and Pral mafia, since there's no reason to assume the mafia would know that Ishy can give out items any more than town would unless they'd been given items.  So as a reaction it would seem null either way. 

 

 

If Pral were mafia, and Ishy were town, he would know that Ishy is not mafia and therefore almost certainly telling the truth.  This is basic mafia stuff.  The mafia will usually know which claims are fake and which are true because townies usually don't fake claim.

 

You don't seem to have thought this out very much.  It seems like you've already reached a decision to vote Pralaya and you're reaching for reasons to do it.  What is the reason for such bias?

[WWWwombat]

 

Eh? That doesn't even make sense. So, you say that I am mafia and there were two mafia trains running. Either of the two mafia will be killed. At that point, I had a "reluctance to vote Des"? Why? When anyway one of the mafia was dying?

 

 

It does make sense actually.  If you were mafia and Des had a more important role than you, you would definitely be reluctant to vote him.  Seeing as Des flipped Alpha Wolf, I think it's likely he did have an important role.

 

And why have you been so reluctant to make meaningful votes this game?

[GoldeneyesND]

 

The other scum could either be Des/BFG. In a 2-man scum team, I am fine with two town PR (without a cop). In any case, that can be seen later

 

vote GE

 At this point, the vote count is

Votecount

Pralaya - Goldeneyes, BFG, Des (3)

Des - Ishy, Wombat (2)

Goldeneyes - Pralaya (1)

 

Lynch is coming up in approx 3 1/2 hours and he parks his vote on me. How much clearer can it be that he's trying to protect Des, who turned out to be the "Alpha" of the scum team. I don't know what the alpha designation connotes, but you can bet it came with some sort of ability beyond mere scum. 

 

Why are you voting alone again?  Deadline is in 30 minutes.  Cut the crap.

 

Pral stubbornly refuses to vote for anyone not me.  Then gets called on it

 

 

What would be your response to Wombat's theory that the defense Pral used at L-1 was way too flimsy for scum to use and think they'll get away with it?

 

Quoted for reference:

 

I've been rather confused about this game lately.  I've got some rather strong reads, but they don't make sense with the way I thought the game was setup.  I've got strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.  Both of them have made sketchy hammers (Des D1, Goldeneyes D2) and at best neither of them have been making any sense.  Most of the time, however, I find them downright scummy.  I also have a strong town read on Ishy.  Everything he's been saying makes sense to me, and I was pretty sure that he was the one who gave me the potion.  His sheeping of me did bother me, but it makes sense if he viewed me as town.  I find it more likely that he is genuine than that he has been working this whole game to buddy me for a critical vote.  I also, have a strong town read on Pralaya.  Although he doesn't post much and his attitude towards activity is irritating, his analysis is pretty good.  He's looked over the votes like I have, and he's noticed some of the same things I have.  Finally, I don't think that if he were scum, he would so starkly disbelieve Ishy's claim.  The scum know Ishy can give out items, so discrediting that part of his claim is a sucker's play.  I doubt scum would do it at L - 1.

...

 

 

I'm not sure I understand it. 

 

If Ishy and Pral were both mafia then it would seem a strange reaction for Pral to have, but I don't follow that the same holds true if Ishy was town and Pral mafia, since there's no reason to assume the mafia would know that Ishy can give out items any more than town would unless they'd been given items.  So as a reaction it would seem null either way. 

 

 

^^Exactly. I thought that at least a couple people would actually care that Pral denied the existence of items in the game. Nope, just sweep that under the rug. There is no reason for scum to know Ishy can give out items unless Wombat or Ishy are scum, because to this point, they're the only people to have received items. Wombat steadfastly believes in Pral and ignores this point, saying that it's "basic mafia" for Pral to believe Ishy's claim. Except guess what, if I read a position that has the OPTION to give a potion out or drink it, I'm going to presume that on Day 2 the person has been drinking the potions themselves. If you need to set people up as scum, refuting a claim that others are unlikely to corroborate is a good idea and you can make this move if you're expendable scum and not the alpha wolf. Or are you forgetting that Pral FOS'd Ishy as scum too? 

[Pralaya]

 

 

Eh? That doesn't even make sense. So, you say that I am mafia and there were two mafia trains running. Either of the two mafia will be killed. At that point, I had a "reluctance to vote Des"? Why? When anyway one of the mafia was dying?

 

 

It does make sense actually.  If you were mafia and Des had a more important role than you, you would definitely be reluctant to vote him.  Seeing as Des flipped Alpha Wolf, I think it's likely he did have an important role.

 

And why have you been so reluctant to make meaningful votes this game?

 

 

In which case, why would I come 20 minutes before the deadline and bus the "more important role"? Wouldn't I have sacrificed myself or in fact let the vote go random?

 

Regarding my votes, Day 1, I was not there because I was not aware of the deadline. It was set when I was sleeping.

Day 2, I believe I had a meaningful vote on GE and I expressed why I felt hoof was not scum

Day 3, I was sure I will be online around deadline time,and I voted my confirmed suspect. If others did not think so, I would be beack around deadline to consolidate on my other suspects, which I did. 

[GoldeneyesND]

Umm no, by your own admission your day 2 vote was because you got a vibe off of leelou and I had "nothing to do with it." That's not a meaningful vote, that's laziness.

[Pralaya]

Umm no, by your own admission your day 2 vote was because you got a vibe off of leelou and I had "nothing to do with it." That's not a meaningful vote, that's laziness.

 

What are you talking about?

Check the post where I voted you. I point out your exact post which increased my suspicion 

 

 

^^^

 

Eh? That looked a bit forced to enter the train. You basically have one or two points against Verbal, which is fair enough, but the whole first part of that case was pointless. Looks more like you wanted to add text to make it look serious and compelling. But, basically fluff.

 

Just reinforces my previous suspcion

 

vote GoldenEyes

 

[GoldeneyesND]

OK, missed Des. Adding him to the top suspects.

 

@GoldenEyes Again trying the argument that I am voting you because of you. I was already suspicious of Leelou from Day 1 and continuing from there. You had nothing to do with it. 

 

And the truth shall set you free. Oh I actually forgot that he left friggin DES off of his most wanted list 

[Pralaya]

 

OK, missed Des. Adding him to the top suspects.

 

@GoldenEyes Again trying the argument that I am voting you because of you. I was already suspicious of Leelou from Day 1 and continuing from there. You had nothing to do with it. 

 

And the truth shall set you free. Oh I actually forgot that he left friggin DES off of his most wanted list 

 

 

Where I was replying to you how it was not an OMGUS vote but that I was already voting Leelou and had nothing to do with you voting me. Fail to see your point.

 

I do recollect how conveniently you were absent during the deadline yesterday to lynch Des .

[GoldeneyesND]

Not absent, I found my little scum and I'm not trading you for the world Pral. Trying to get townie cred for a vote you made to save yourself? 

[Pralaya]

In other words, you conveniently avoided the Des vote with an excuse that you were voting for the scum. Got it :)

[GoldeneyesND]

At least I voted for someone with a train, you tried to park your vote on me in hope of a no lynch until wombat called you on it.

[Pralaya]

You are still not making sense. Think better.  You are saying that when called out I voted the Alpha Wolf to save myself? If I was hoping for a no lynch, I would have GONE for a no-lynch.

[Nolder]

Votecount

Goldeneyes - Wombat, Pral (2)

Pralaya - Ishy, BFG, Goldeneyes (3)

 

Not voting: Verbal

 

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: Tuesday at 9AM PST

[Nolder]

Deadline extended by 1 hour.

I hope you make good use of it.

[Verbal32]

I'm not interested in voting Pralaya at this time.

 

Vote: GE

[BFG]

 

 

So why exactly are you guys voting the guy who was the countertain to the "Alpha Wolf?"

 

 

I have no idea what that word even means.

 

 

counter train?

 

Because I think it must be a 3 man team and since I don't believe it's a Des/Golden/Ishy team it must have Pral on.  (Reasons back to 3 man instead of 2 man include last nights no NK, if its a 3 man team then that puts us at mylo again which seems advantageous to mafia as there's a higher chance of mis-lynching, also if it was a 2 man team then that means at least 2 Town PR, which seems normal and doesn't warrant an understrength mafia, especially given that other games I've played where it's 2 Town PR and this many players then there have been negative things for Town such as Lovers, or vanilla turned SK)  The negative stuff for us have been the mod-kills (which doesn't count towards balance) and the short deadline Day 1... ). 

 

I also find his apparent reluctance to vote Des yesterday strange, (although possibly null given Hoofs reluctance to vote somebody as well.  Des voting Pral is also null given his propensity for bussing).  And going back to Day 2, he's been confident all along that Golden is mafia but waited Day 2 to vote until somebody else had voted first.

 

 

Basing a scum read on what you're assuming about the setup is backwards.  When I threw out my setup assumptions and went with voting the scummy guy, we lynched the mafia Alpha Wolf.  The scarce nightkills is not a reason to believe that the mafia have 3 members.  Given Des' flip, it's more likely to indicate some sort of recruitment ability.  And town has gimped PRs this game.  The cop is the most important town power role in a traditional mafia game.  Not having one is a huge handicap.

 

As for Pralaya's reluctance to vote Des, I think it's more endemic of his reluictance to vote in general than his feelings on Des.  Pralaya has been voting late and voting alove lately.  I hate this habit as it is highly anti-town, but nonetheless, it doesn't mean he is mafia.  Townies often do anti-town things for various crappy reasons.

 

 

At the moment I have no idea what the setup of this game is.  My above assumption was wrong (about the not making sense to not NK if it was a team of 2), if it was 2 then that takes us to 5v1, with a mis-lynch and NK that's 3v1 and mylo.  If they'd NKd last night that would take us tomorrow to 2v1 and lylo with a mislynch and NK.  The situation is similar, either way the single person would have to live through 2 more days and the argument that if there are more people around it's easier to paint other people as mafia holds in this situation as well, or maybe Des did have to submit the NK, or maybe it's a 3 member team and they've been going nuts to avoid connections, I don't know.

 

I'm hoping that if there was a recruitment mechanic that we'd have had more of an indication from a mafia flip, but maybe not.  Either way, we're still looking for either 1 or 2 more team members, there are a lot of combinations of 'did they have a N0 action?' 'was the kill theirs or not (I understand that a cult style faction normally don't have a NK, but if they'd been able to recruit every night this would already be over)?..'   

 

I also didn't mean to imply that I was voting Pral solely because of team mechanics.  There aren't any teams that make sense at the moment (and the more I try to think through it the more I wifom myself), however the generic if it's a team of 3 Pral must be on it still holds.  I don't like his voting record and if I understand it your strong town read comes primarily from the fact that voting in this manner isn't out of character for Pral, his analysis of the voting train (when he left Des out) and you don't think that mafia would so starkly disbelieve Ishys claim (if I understand your next bit correctly)?

 

 

 

What would be your response to Wombat's theory that the defense Pral used at L-1 was way too flimsy for scum to use and think they'll get away with it?

 

Quoted for reference:

 

I've been rather confused about this game lately.  I've got some rather strong reads, but they don't make sense with the way I thought the game was setup.  I've got strong scum reads on Des and Goldeneyes.  Both of them have made sketchy hammers (Des D1, Goldeneyes D2) and at best neither of them have been making any sense.  Most of the time, however, I find them downright scummy.  I also have a strong town read on Ishy.  Everything he's been saying makes sense to me, and I was pretty sure that he was the one who gave me the potion.  His sheeping of me did bother me, but it makes sense if he viewed me as town.  I find it more likely that he is genuine than that he has been working this whole game to buddy me for a critical vote.  I also, have a strong town read on Pralaya.  Although he doesn't post much and his attitude towards activity is irritating, his analysis is pretty good.  He's looked over the votes like I have, and he's noticed some of the same things I have.  Finally, I don't think that if he were scum, he would so starkly disbelieve Ishy's claim.  The scum know Ishy can give out items, so discrediting that part of his claim is a sucker's play.  I doubt scum would do it at L - 1.

 

...

 

 

I'm not sure I understand it. 

 

If Ishy and Pral were both mafia then it would seem a strange reaction for Pral to have, but I don't follow that the same holds true if Ishy was town and Pral mafia, since there's no reason to assume the mafia would know that Ishy can give out items any more than town would unless they'd been given items.  So as a reaction it would seem null either way. 

 

 

If Pral were mafia, and Ishy were town, he would know that Ishy is not mafia and therefore almost certainly telling the truth.  This is basic mafia stuff.  The mafia will usually know which claims are fake and which are true because townies usually don't fake claim.

 

You don't seem to have thought this out very much.  It seems like you've already reached a decision to vote Pralaya and you're reaching for reasons to do it.  What is the reason for such bias?

 

 

Ok, thanks for clarifying - I still disagree.  At the time Pral was arguing that everyone on his train was mafia, in order for that to be true he has to doubt Ishy and that includes doubting his role, that would seem to be true regardless of Prals alignment as his argument fails if all 3 mafia were not on his train. 

 

Not reaching, evidently not explaining myself very well. 

 

Primarily I really don't like his voting.  He's had a strong read on Golden since Day 1, yet has done very little to push it through.  His actions and words contradict each other particularly on Day 3. 

 

I disagree with his read on Leelou, her voting/prodding reminded me of her play in the Weasley game when Town.  I don't know if she's like that as mafia, but aggressiveness isn't outside of her Town play either. 

 

Something I don't think has been brought up yet (at least not in this way)

 

Of course, if I am a PR (town or mafia) , that would change according to what the role demands. 

 

Well, no.  He had a Town PR in the Walking Dead game (if admittedly a weak one) and was just as quiet, so this appears to be his Day 1 meta regardless of role and not a vanilla 'tell'.  His quietness is a null tell, his argument here pings.

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand fighting todays lynch reads better than yesterdays apparent apathy.  Or it may just be because I'm a weaker player *shrug*

[BFG]

Deadline extended by 1 hour.

I hope you make good use of it.

 

thanks

[WWWwombat]

NL time I guess.  I have no idea why anyone would think Goldeneyes is town.

[BFG]

unvote vote Golden