Greek Mythology: Man Vs. Gods [Advanced] - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS!

[berf]

Quotes in order above:

 

PRAYA

 

TINA

 

DICE

 

WOMBAT, Quoted by DARTHE

 

WOMBAT, Quoted by PEACE

[berf]

And now the tags are showing. Whatever, DM

[berf]

What do you think that means DAP?

 

Cloud must be important to outweigh the Oracle living for two nights is what I land on.

[peacesells]

You are assuming Wombat is correct that it would take 3 mislynches.

[berf]

What is your better plan?

 

Lynch another - a gamble, and let Cloud shoot whatever flavour cannon he has?

[dapianoplay3r]

What do you think that means DAP?

 

Cloud must be important to outweigh the Oracle living for two nights is what I land on.

Or they cant

[berf]

....Eh. I don't see Oracle being that powerful. I think the balance is all in the fact that Cloud had to play the game with Dice, and vice versa. 

 

I think it makes sense that Cloud could be Godfather given that the role involves telling fibs about his alignment in their shared QT. A cop view would support that - and thus balance the pairing. 

 

But this is all conjecture until the flip. 

[dapianoplay3r]

I see your point

[peacesells]

What is your better plan?

 

Lynch another - a gamble, and let Cloud shoot whatever flavour cannon he has?

 

My better plan is to lynch from the pool of 5 and have Thorum kill one of the others.  The next day it will be a pool of 3. 

[Darthe]

I disagree.  Initially I agreed with that assessment but the potential risk of Cloud having a deadly NA outweighs that.  Thorum's kill tonight will drop it to four and we are still going to be left with three-four nearly confirmed townies in the game.  

[peacesells]

And we lose 2 town. Dice and the nk?

 

What night action are you concerned about? Extra kills? No evidence of that.

[Pralaya]

We are going to lose Dice anyway - if not today, then tomorrow. The situation at the end of tomorrow will be the same ... unless Cloud has a mafia ability detrimental to town.. Both sides have its pros and cons - it is just how confident we are in identifying the remaining scum.

 

vote cloud 

[berf]

No evidence period of anything. Thus it's a gamble. Thus we remove the variables we can control.

 

Let's look at the scenario:

 

Cloud = Mafia

X = Mafia

Y = Mafia

 

2/5 are mafia in this pool:

 

Berf/Krak/Tina/Praya/Dap

 

 

SCENARIO 1

Lynch a Rando, Shoot Cloud

 

If you don't lynch me, you have a 50% chance of choosing the correct target from Tina/Krak/Dap/Praya

Unknown success rate on shooting Cloud

Mafia have at least 2 potential NKs with a 50% chance of 3.

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO = 0 Mafia Dead, 3 Town Dead, all mafia potential NK's surviving into the night.

BEST CASE SCENARIO = 2 Mafia Dead, 1 Dead town

 

SCENARIO 2

Lynch a Rando, Shoot a Rando

50% chance of lynching mafia from the pool

Again, assuming it isn't me this then splits into two - 

 

If town lynched - 66% chance of shooting correct target -  unknown chance of success remains as 3 mafia live into the night

If mafia lynched - 33% chance of shooting correct target - unknown chance of success remains but marginally improved because only 2 mafia live into the night

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 0 Mafia Dead, 3 Town dead, all NK's surviving into the night

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 2 Dead Mafia, 1 Dead Town, and Cloud Ready to lynch tomorrow

 

 

SCENARIO 3

Lynch Cloud, Shoot a Rando

100% Mafia Dead/100% Town dead

40-50% Chance of hitting a mafia with the Vig shot - with 1 less potential mafia action to screw that up.

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 1 Mafia Dead, 3 Town Dead, Lynch pool down to 4 (3 as I know I'm town...) 

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 2 Mafia dead, 1 town dead, Lynch pool down to 4 (3)

 

 

Scenario 2 has the most to gain, yes, but we don't need a Hail Mary play. Scenario 3 is safest option for town, and is the only one that can guarantee a mafia death.

 

Time is on our side. To a point.

[berf]

By NK's I meant Night actions obviously... You know I read these things like twenty times before posting?

 

You wouldn't.

[Thorum]

The CLoud-night-action argument makes sense.

 

unvote and vote cloud

 

Only a hammer left.

[berf]

And Scenario 1 should have 2 dead town in the Best Case section. I'm on struggle street today apparently.

[berf]

Also, Wombat had some questions outstanding for Dice.

 

Maybe not best to hammer. I'll be around for a little while before football later.

 

UNVOTE

 

Obviously very willing to hop back on

[Thorum]

Why not? It's not like Dice has contributed anything today (not that I would, in his case ) ...

[peacesells]

No evidence period of anything. Thus it's a gamble. Thus we remove the variables we can control.

 

Let's look at the scenario:

 

Cloud = Mafia

X = Mafia

Y = Mafia

 

2/5 are mafia in this pool:

 

Berf/Krak/Tina/Praya/Dap

 

 

SCENARIO 1

Lynch a Rando, Shoot Cloud

 

If you don't lynch me, you have a 50% chance of choosing the correct target from Tina/Krak/Dap/Praya

Unknown success rate on shooting Cloud

Mafia have at least 2 potential NKs with a 50% chance of 3.

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO = 0 Mafia Dead, 3 Town Dead, all mafia potential NK's surviving into the night.

1 Mafia Dead, 2 Town Dead

BEST CASE SCENARIO = 2 Mafia Dead, 1 Dead town

Game over with 2 mafia dead.

 

SCENARIO 2

Lynch a Rando, Shoot a Rando

50% chance of lynching mafia from the pool

Again, assuming it isn't me this then splits into two - 

 

If town lynched - 66% chance of shooting correct target -  unknown chance of success remains as 3 mafia live into the night

If mafia lynched - 33% chance of shooting correct target - unknown chance of success remains but marginally improved because only 2 mafia live into the night

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 0 Mafia Dead, 3 Town dead, all NK's surviving into the night

0 Mafia dead, 2 town dead. 

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 2 Dead Mafia, 1 Dead Town, and Cloud Ready to lynch tomorrow

1 Mafia dead, 1 town dead.

 

 

SCENARIO 3

Lynch Cloud, Shoot a Rando

100% Mafia Dead/100% Town dead

40-50% Chance of hitting a mafia with the Vig shot - with 1 less potential mafia action to screw that up.

 

WORST CASE SCENARIO: 1 Mafia Dead, 3 Town Dead, Lynch pool down to 4 (3 as I know I'm town...) 

1 mafia dead, 2 town dead.

BEST CASE SCENARIO: 2 Mafia dead, 1 town dead, Lynch pool down to 4 (3)

2 mafia dead game over.

 

 

Scenario 2 has the most to gain, yes, but we don't need a Hail Mary play. Scenario 3 is safest option for town, and is the only one that can guarantee a mafia death.

 

Time is on our side. To a point.

[peacesells]

Fixed your math errors. You may want to rethink your theory.  Plus, I not really looking to take direction from someone in the pool of suspects.

 

Lynch Krak, Thorum kill one of the others and we kill Cloud the next day if you guys are in such a hurry.

 

We may come up with more questions that need answering and killing Dice now will limit us.

[berf]

Worst case is assuming Thorum's kill doesn't go through. Best case is they do.

 

And I'm not trying to direct. Merely Opining. Illuminating. And I think I made my bias pretty clear

[berf]

2 mafia dead would give us 3 mafia+3rd party = 4 non town entities.

 

There were 4 mafia as per dice's claim.

 

2 Dead mafia is not equal to game over.

[dapianoplay3r]

I dont like this

I havent read up yet so I dont have all the stuff under my belt yet but my gut is just saying lynching cloud is bad. I say shoot him tonight

I also dont like how Berf is removing himself from the numbers when doing all the figures. I get it, you say your town, regardless keep yourself in those numbers

 

regardless. gut says that cloud should wait

[dapianoplay3r]

also someone mentioned about me replacing for krak

at this point its likely hes mafia (50%, considering if i were to replace i would have to of flipped town). Id rather not sub in for a likely mafia who is about to be lynched

[WWWwombat]

I dont like this

I havent read up yet so I dont have all the stuff under my belt yet but my gut is just saying lynching cloud is bad. I say shoot him tonight

I also dont like how Berf is removing himself from the numbers when doing all the figures. I get it, you say your town, regardless keep yourself in those numbers

 

regardless. gut says that cloud should wait

Given that you're one of my top suspects, I don't give a hoot what your gut allegedly says.

 

I'd like some answers from Dice stat though.