August 9, 2013: CONCLUDED

[hazelkrs1]

Case on Serra:

 

Cloud's confusion about games reads genuine. He's probably not scum here. I disagree with his assessment that cross-thread stuff is spam though.

 

I disagree with the votes on Yates. His RVS is pretty standard.

 

I can agree with the theory that Nolder is scum in one of the three threads as well. I don't think it's this one though.

 

Bg wanting to let Csarmi live here is very dodge. I would say they're either scum here together, or bg is scum in at least 1 if not both of the others.

 

Lenlo is town for questioning Yates also repeating the same post across the 3 threads and encouraging crossreferencing the games.

 

Ishy is wrong about Nolder overanalysing stuff, but his carefree attitude also reads town.

 

Peace misreps Ishy pretty badly by impying Ishy wants Nolder to stop posting. Also, peace wanting to start lynching Csarmi in this thread strikes me as a bit off. I think we might have Peace-scum wanting to get Csarmi-town lynched here before we hit Csarmi scum in 1 and/or 2.

 

dap's post on bg is townie and valid. bg-scum is looking like a serious option, perhaps even without Csarmi-scum.

 

Razen also makes a good point on bg, about his use of "arbitrary",

 

I liked this post initially, but in retrospect it looks a bit funky.

 

Defends Yates as town (not much there since Yates was a symp, but still)

 

Says Lenlo is town, for something extremely minor.

 

Defends Ishy as town. Also states town reads on Nol (in this thread), Cloud, Razen, Dap... the only dude he seems to act like he has anything close to a scum read is Peace. Who flipped town.

 

You may have said that earlier, but you were sure acting as though it might make a difference.

 

If name-claims might be game related, I think it should be pretty obvious why I'm worried by someone baiting claims. If names aren't game related, I really don't see any chance of the pattern of names correlating with alignment.

 

 

Soft claims a PR here. Town Jailkeeper and Vig are dead, Cop is claimed, Doc wouldn't softclaim in a million years... only option for him imo is BPV pretty much (besides other unknown town PR's), and that doesn't seem likely considering he was advocating the BPV out themselves. Could have been wifom, but still. Worth noting.

 

Alright.  Caught up in this thread.  I think Peace ran a Town gambit.  She could have let it keep going but didn't.  It was pretty obvious when she first made the claim what she was doing.  But maybe it was obvious to me b/c I just caught up in the other thread.  I think Serra reaction tested well and is Townish.

 

Going to be L/A this weekend for birthday shens.  Expect activity in spurts if/when it happens.

 

Yates starts defending Serra as town hardcore after Peace's gambit.

 

 

Unvote vote Peace

 

Nope. Not ok with fake BS like this.

Think outside the box for a second.  (S)he just saw Verb break down and basically claim scum in T1.  And all Tina had to do was say "Verb is scum" and everyone followed.  Peace saw this as an opportunity to gut check her top scum read, Serra.  Serra did NOT break down like Verb so Peace admitted to the gambit and stopped the lynch.  It was ballsy yes.  But not scummy.  If she had gotten a claim out of Serra?  You'd have a stronger argument.  As it is - no harm, no foul and I feel like Serra and Peace BOTH come out looking Townier for it.

 

 

Moar uberdefense of Serra.

 

Just came back from a festival and I apparently didn't end up getting lynched. Sweet!

 

Before I read up (which might have to be tomorrow, because I'm shattered):

 

Peace is scum. You simply don't get town fake softclaiming cop. The fact that I'm still alive means either the cop was stupid enough to cc, or peace backpedalled before I got lynched to save himself. Please let it be the latter.

 

VOTE: Peace

 

A general comment about cop play: never, ever out yourself before you need to (either to save yourself or a valuable PR), particularly in a game of this size. Lynching one scum is generally not worth losing the cop. Cop results should be breadcrumbed, so the cop should never need to claim before LyLo.

 

Terribad post here.Votes like he isn't caught up yet, tries to look like helpful vet handing out advice about when to claim as cop. Why does Serra automatically assume there's NO WAY Peace isn't the cop if he hadn't caught up yet? Could be that there was a Bus Driver (a town one DID flip in another thread), a Tailor, etc.

 

Uberscummy post.

 

I'm not voting Serra.

I'm not voting an unCCed Cop [today].

 

What's the case on Peace?  I'm trying to get caught up from the weekend and don't have any obv scum in this thread that I can recall.

 

Lenlo states he won't vote Serra. Doesn't ever give any reasons why he wouldn't.

 

Why does he make it seem like he would vote an unCC'ed Cop BEFORE he'd vote Serra? That's weetaudid.

 

There's little use in giving away a lynch. Saying "oh but we could lose three townies" is fear-mongering. I think you guys are wrong about cloud, but it's still better than giving another kill to scum. Heck, it's even better to remove a townie that would be a liability at LyLo than to No Lynch, so with 8 hours left:

 

VOTE: Cloud

 

Gives justification for helping to lynch someone he thinks of as town. Another uberscummy post.

 

---

 

This isn't even counting all the stuff about him trying to get the BPV to out themselves, to help verify that the setups are similar, when you could just WAIT FOR MORE FLIPS, if need be. Outing the BPV would have been a stupid move. He also breadcrumbs the idea of a mass claim, another thing that would be bad for town since it's apparent to me that there are more than enough actual VT's for mafia to hide behind as fake claims.

 

Could easily vote Serra instead of Ishy today. Both have dropped off the map somewhat lately. Serra even moreso. He also dodged most of the conversation that swirled around him during Peace's gambit.

 

[bgrishinko]

I have a theory I've been developing for a little while. That theory is that at least one person will have voted for a scum player on Day 1 that doesn't go anywhere and that player never gets voted again until its either too late or mistakes/viewings happen.

 

That leaves me with Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak.

 

My scumhunting has led me to believe Serra is scum. But it appears that that isn't gaining any traction. Verbal is tentatively on the no lynch list. Nolder is being asked to replaced.

 

Krak and Hallia are my new top picks for scum.

 

Which of these two can we all agree on?

[hazelkrs1]

 

 

We haven't seen a Cop flip, or had a Cop claim in any if the three threads yet have we? Other than Chuckles'? I'm not convinced that there's a Cop in any of the setups. Add to that his reluctance to share the results of his views other than the easy Yates crap and I'm thinking he's full of shit.

 

Sows seeds of doubt on Chuckles without voting him. Also breaks the CoC, but once again that's nothing new for him.

 

So yeah, vote Ishy yall.

 

Is that part of your case?  Does it pertain to this game in any way?

 

 

 

 

For the 57984759435th time:

 

The. Cop. Viewed. Me. As. Town.

 

 

In your re-read of Tiinker, did you notice him willing to push any train?  It doesn't matter who the lynch is - he's willing to hop anywhere?  Is it town who doesn't care?  Or is it scum jumping anywhere as we haven't landed on a teammate yet?

 

No in fact I didn't notice that at all. In fact, on two different lynches he could have easily bandwagoned but actually went against the grain. Voted ... can't remember, Cloud or Chuckles I think when everyone was voting Csarlami Day 1. Even kinda poked fun at how others would call him out for it. Then when Cloud was pulling bizarro moves at the end of his lynch, once again Tiinker said he would hammer, and had pretty easy justification for doing so, but didn't end up doing so.

 

So yeah, honestly on my reread, Tiinker really didn't seem that stinky at all.

 

 

@Tina: Right, I forgot Verbal was Chuckle's viewing. Could be GF, but meh might as well pursue better leads for now.

 

 

Also think Tina is town, Krak leaning slight town, and unsure about Verbal.

 

You gonna try hanging your hat on me being a GF, then?  Or are you just forgetting facts of the thread mere posts later?

 

 

Uhm, yeah, I could still see you being a GF possibly. But dude, you're literally like 5th or 6th in my list of people I'd like to see lynched atm. Why you freaking out about a NULL read I have on you?

 

 

Hehe, I like how you classify that as "freaking out".  Good stuff.

 

 

I like how you literally ignore EVERY other part of my case on Ishy and go after that first thing. Bush league, dude.

 

And :epiceyeroll: @ you constantly trying to act too cool for school.

 

"LOL you call THAT freaking out! LULZ! Aight yall, time for me to go to hipster school!"

 

You jumped on my bones for a null read on you, when I had already stated that there were much better cases to pursue today.

[hazelkrs1]

I have a theory I've been developing for a little while. That theory is that at least one person will have voted for a scum player on Day 1 that doesn't go anywhere and that player never gets voted again until its either too late or mistakes/viewings happen.

 

That leaves me with Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak.

 

My scumhunting has led me to believe Serra is scum. But it appears that that isn't gaining any traction. Verbal is tentatively on the no lynch list. Nolder is being asked to replaced.

 

Krak and Hallia are my new top picks for scum.

 

Which of these two can we all agree on?

 

I'll go with you on Serra, think it should be Ishy or Serra today. Could also go Hallia, but I'd be fine with policy lynching her in any game. She does look scummy in this one tho. Krak seems town to me. Only thing people really seem to have on him is his supposedly weak case on Cloud, but honestly I think Cloud buried himself. He dropped major scumtells on my reread dude. Just cause Krak isn't the best casemaker doesn't make him scum.

[hazelkrs1]

Okay lastly my minicases on other possible scummies...

[bgrishinko]

Krak worries me cause of cross thread meta as not actively participating as Town.

[Niniel]

I have a theory I've been developing for a little while. That theory is that at least one person will have voted for a scum player on Day 1 that doesn't go anywhere and that player never gets voted again until its either too late or mistakes/viewings happen.

 

That leaves me with Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak.

 

My scumhunting has led me to believe Serra is scum. But it appears that that isn't gaining any traction. Verbal is tentatively on the no lynch list. Nolder is being asked to replaced.

 

Krak and Hallia are my new top picks for scum.

 

Which of these two can we all agree on?

 

I don´t understand what you mean. 

[Verbal32]

I like how you literally ignore EVERY other part of my case on Ishy and go after that first thing. Bush league, dude.

 

And :epiceyeroll: @ you constantly trying to act too cool for school.

 

"LOL you call THAT freaking out! LULZ! Aight yall, time for me to go to hipster school!"

 

You jumped on my bones for a null read on you, when I had already stated that there were much better cases to pursue today.

 

 

No, Des.  Bush league is calling everything "stupid, dumb, terribad, awful, blah blah".  No wonder you can't get anybody to follow your lead.  I didn't ignore any of the case - I merely made a comment that should help you.

 

Eventually your little schoolyard tough guy routine will wear itself out, I suppose.

[bgrishinko]

 

I have a theory I've been developing for a little while. That theory is that at least one person will have voted for a scum player on Day 1 that doesn't go anywhere and that player never gets voted again until its either too late or mistakes/viewings happen.

 

That leaves me with Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak.

 

My scumhunting has led me to believe Serra is scum. But it appears that that isn't gaining any traction. Verbal is tentatively on the no lynch list. Nolder is being asked to replaced.

 

Krak and Hallia are my new top picks for scum.

 

Which of these two can we all agree on?

 

I don´t understand what you mean. 

 

 Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak all received votes on day one and have not been voted ever since.

[Verbal32]

Not a bad idea, BG.

[Niniel]

 

 

I have a theory I've been developing for a little while. That theory is that at least one person will have voted for a scum player on Day 1 that doesn't go anywhere and that player never gets voted again until its either too late or mistakes/viewings happen.

 

That leaves me with Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak.

 

My scumhunting has led me to believe Serra is scum. But it appears that that isn't gaining any traction. Verbal is tentatively on the no lynch list. Nolder is being asked to replaced.

 

Krak and Hallia are my new top picks for scum.

 

Which of these two can we all agree on?

 

I don´t understand what you mean. 

 

 Verbal, Nolder, Hallia, and Krak all received votes on day one and have not been voted ever since.

 

 

I´m extremely tired right now so I still don´t get it. Do you think mafia vote their own? Or symp trying to signal? Or?

[bgrishinko]

Nope. Just voting theory. I've been monitoring voting patterns over the past few games and I've seen it happen over and over. On average, at least two scum are voted for on Day 1 and then never voted for again until some sort of revelation or mistake happens.

 

Also, somebody who escapes a large lynch train more than once is almost always scum or major PR.... hence... Serra.

 

So Hallia, Krak, or Serra.

 

Serra's my top choice, I moved my vote for pressure though for now.

[hazelkrs1]

Mini cases:

 

Lenlo:

 

 

 

I think the biggest thing we need to do here is get organised. Being able to organise and effectively cross reference data between threads ((Such as he voted this person for doing this in this thread but didnt vote another person in another thread for doing the exact same thing.)) is going to be invaluable to us.

 

We cant treat these as 3 seperate games either, but 1 game in 3 threads. After all what if say 2 people on a scum team in thread 1 are using threads 2 and 3 for whatever. Plotting, setups, purposeful angering of players... We need to keep track of and use all this extra data were getting.

 

Didn't grab the first one, but Lenlo had a few posts like this early on in the game. Trying to look like a helpful townie.

 

"Come on yall! We gots to get organized!"

 

 

As I said in Thread 1, Csarmi I was against lynching you in all 3 threads but after that explosion not lynching you just wouldnt be worth it. Not only did that jump you up on my scumdar but it also makes you the most informative lynch in all 3 threads.

 

Vote Csarmi

 

 

Overstates how much he didn't want to lynch Csarlami at first, but the meltdown apparently pinged for him. Also just NOW catches on to the idea of the Csarlami metalynch being good for info? Don't buy it.

 

Eh... Im not seeing the Serra case. I see the language he was using and I dont think its a setup for a mass claim. Why setup in such an obvious way when it would be better if you outright said "I want a mass claim". Doesnt make sense to me.

 

Vote BG

 

To me it really looks like BG is forcing us to look at what Serra is saying in a way that he didnt mean for it to. Id be willing to switch to Cloud later, but I dont want to lynch Serra on that crap.

 

Ahhh I knew I missed one of the people fos'ing BG there for a bit. I think the votes and fos's on BG were a scum push on him.

 

He also defends Serra really strongly in this one. Also I highly disagree with his reasoning re: Serra's massclaim idea. Sounds too much like "Mafia would never do that" type argument, which is dumb.

 

 

 

unvote

 

Ok now im not sure what to do. Neither of you have any viewings we can test and there seems to have been an epidemic of fake claiming cop going around lately.

 

This stood out to me though. Len believed that I was mafia and that's why he voted for me, but afterwards when I obviously fake claimed to be the Cop he unvoted and said that he was torn on who to believe. I think he might be scum.

 

So because I was hesitant to not believe you I might be scum? If you havnt noticed my feelings on whos scum havnt exactly been good this game, so excuse me if im abit worried about who I lynch when they are claiming cop in a set of games where fake claiming has been rampant.

 

 

The ONE thing Cloud might have gotten right yesterday was his notice of this by Lenlo, how lenlo immediately unvoted. Literally EVERYONE else saw that Cloud's move made NO sense, that a Cop would never self vote. Lenlo was the one who wanted to appear cautious, then gets very prickly after being called out on it.

 

Vote cloud

 

Now hes hammered.

 

Prickliness continues. Lenlo seems to get too emotionally invested in every vote (hammer vote? Wasn't he the hammer on both Cloud and Csarlami?), or at least wants us to believe he's that emotionally invested.

 

 

 

How much did they pay you?

Got a counteroffer?

 

 

 

Seems pretty aloof. This is minor, but still. I think he's almost in gloat mode about his team being close to winning.

 

 

 

Razen:

 

 

 

 

 

Here's how I see the gambit playing out.

T1 just had Verbal killing off the cop with a vengeance kill after Tina revealed. Cloud was a vengeance kill in T2. So it is likely there is a vengeance kill here as well.

Peace makes a cop type of play to lynch Serra. Most people are going to believe that sort of act, because we've just seen it happen in T1 to great success. So using the Cross Game meta, Peace decides to throw this together knowing full well people will "Lemming".

Two fold advantage for scum, if Peace is a vengeance kill then it's a worthy sacrifice because 1. There is a really high chance the cop will counter claim or at least say something to doubt Peace.
2. Even if the cop says nothing at all, he's bound to be one of the remaining people who doesn't immediately vote. This narrows the NK pool drastically for cop hunting.

Well played scum gambit in the bag. That, Peace, is how I think this all went down.

 

I like this post.

 

Peace - I voted you because I think you tried to get the cop to claim. Perhaps it was a way to save Chuckles as well. That seems too obvious though but who knows.

 

 

I like it too.

 

It has to do with all of this forcing the cop to claim business.  I believe that is what he's trying to do.  But I don't see how letting him get off a vengeance kill by lynching him is going to help.  If you believe what BG is saying, I think there needs to be more serious discussion about it that the knee-jerk reactions a lot of people seem to be having.  Because I don't think a lot of people considered the theory that BG posted.  It's the only reason I can think of he'd have been so obvious about it.  Who knows?  His teammates might even have started the whole vote him for lying business as a way to get him lynched for that vengeance kill.

 

 

Completely convinced that both there IS a Vengeful Killer in this game (this was before more flips lent weight to the idea that all 3 games were similar setups), and that Peace is one.

 

 

 

honestly i dont want to waste a day on people going back and forth cuz of me, im town cop 

 

and is lily in the game?!!

 

id go with krak tbh, 

 

*facepalm*

 

Ffs man.. Why did you claim now without any kind of pressure?! Peace had the most votes on him and the only thing that you did with this move is most likely getting yourself killed tonight.

 

3 things:

 

1. I am again posting even though I probably shouldn't. It's 4am here, and checking how this thread is going is literally the last thing I'm doing before passing out. This is not me lurking, this is me having busy weekends... Surely, if I actually was following the thread, the most opportune time to vote peace, if I were scum trying to get him lynched, would have been DIRECTLY after he pulled the brake line.

 

2. I, too, would expect a Doc protection to only prevent a single kill. If this is different here, that'd actually quite surprise me. @mod: if a doctor role exists in this game, does it protect from multiple kills?

 

3. I believe chuckles' cop claim. There's should be now way in heck we're lynching him today. Yates is good for his unvote and further explanation. Nolder is less so. Even though I know no one will listen to my suggested play, my suggestion would be to ask the bullet-proof townie in this thread to claim, which would pretty much confirm that all 3 threads have the same PR's, meaning we can keep chuckles alive. Before anyone complains about me role-fishing: I suggest outing probably the weakest PR we have in this thread to stop people from lynching the cop, who may be our only hope of winning this, as well as giving us valuable information for the town-games in the other threads. If there actually is a bullet-proof townie in this thread and the two others, I would actually also consider the possibility that the game could be solved by a game-wide mass claim.

 

I will actually read the other threads tomorrow (probably morning)...

 

I actually really like this idea from Serra and after reading the last few pages I have a town read on him. 

 

 

I'm confused nolder, your saying that you'd rather lynch off an UN CC cop and have me reveal the 1 townie who will be the main focus of NK's come night, its as far as I can see a lose lose sitution for town

 

You need to get those results out there! It doesnt matter if the scum team is going to go after confirmed townies after you die, because it will be way worse if we waste our lynches on them! We can figure out a lot more with your info.

 

 

I prefer lynching serra

vote serra 

And we still have time, if everyone moves trains (ill be here till the DL, ill check in as often as I can)

 

Umm.. no. Peace is the way to go.

 

 

This post is enough to make me believe that Cloud is scum.  Here's why.  First of all, he puts on the fake "wtf, why did you reveal with no pressure on you at all" hat and tries to gain town cred.  He kept hammering home the point that Chuckles was going to get killed that night and used that as his reasoning to push him to reveal who his innocent was.  He even went so far as to justify Chuckles revealing the innocents so that we don't waste lynches on them after he's dead.  There's only one person at that point, but he's speaking as if there's a lot of people there that it could possibly remove from the picture.

 

Why was he so certain that Chuckles would be killed?  Normally, I'd believe it a semi-safe assumption to make, but there is a doctor still out there.  And no doctor's going to be dumb enough to not protect an un-CC'ed cop.  I think Cloud is going on blind faith in Chuckles because he knows that he's telling the truth.

 

Last, he pushes people to vote Peace over Serra.  This was after the hammer on Peace, but I think it interesting that Cloud agreed with Serra's idea re:BPV claim, and tried to direct Chuckles to vote for Peace.

 

Vote: Cloud

 

 

Overjustification for Cloud vote.

 

There was more, but Tina kinda already covered it. Also add my thoughts about how Razen could have been trying to mask his meta by being an early pusher on all three Csarlami lynches, but with a simple vote and nothing else in each.

 

 

 

Hallia:

 

 

 

You think?  So you don't know, for sure.  I agree with Len, that's pretty anti-town there.

 

Unvote

 

Agrees with Lenlo, one of the first people to fos Peace. Not much here, but meh there's not much you CAN glean from most of her posts.

 

He didn't seem to lose his cool, or spread wifom like fertilizer; I think he did fine?

 

Vote Peace

 

Defends Serra, and votes Peace, doesn't really give any clear reasoning.

 

 

My scum list atm:
Ishy - mainly for that exchange with Peace where he seemed like something was slowly dawning on him... that looked like way too fake of a reaction to the situation

GFY? EAD?

 

 

 

I know right?   First you don't talk enough, then you don't say the right things, no pleasing some people!

 

 

Covered this in the Ishy case, but yeah, sticks up for Ishy for pretty much no reason. Makes me think they were talking earlier on the QT about stuff like this.

 

I'm going with Cloud today.  He was early onto the Csarmi lynch with no reasoning really.  Looked opportunistic.   More recently he tried to start a lynch onto Chuckles, who has revealed himself as cop.  And lastly, what caught my eye was the way he tried to defend Peace at first when he was getting run up after the fake viewing on Serra.  It seems to me he was hoping to get some town credit by looking good and not voting for Peace when he seemed to be a sure lynch.  Then it stalled out, and sure enough he hopped onto the train after all as the deadline got closer.

 

Vote Cloud

 

Just awful, AWFUL reasoning in this post.

 

Bold:  Cloud stated his reasoning on the Csarlami lynch multiple times.

 

Italics: Why would that be relevant? He, along with me and Nol and others I think, were on Chuckles BEFORE he claimed Cop. The fact that he claimed cop afterwards doesn't mean diddly squat as far as any of our alignments go. Town is uninformed, remember?

 

Underlined: At that point, it looked like Peace was going to be the only lynch anyways.

 

Extremely weak reasoning for a vote on Cloud, especially considering there was much better reasoning out there.

 

 

Unvote vote tinker

 

Has been on my scum list along with Ishy. Either would do

 

I don't know about Ish, but I'm pretty comfortable with a tiink vote.

 

Vote Tiink

 

 

 

Another awful vote, and no stated reasons. WHY are you comfortable with this vote Hallia?

 

 

 

[hazelkrs1]

Krak worries me cause of cross thread meta as not actively participating as Town.

 

He's been pretty inactive across all threads and games lately. Don't think that's much of a metaread.

 

 

I like how you literally ignore EVERY other part of my case on Ishy and go after that first thing. Bush league, dude.

 

And :epiceyeroll: @ you constantly trying to act too cool for school.

 

"LOL you call THAT freaking out! LULZ! Aight yall, time for me to go to hipster school!"

 

You jumped on my bones for a null read on you, when I had already stated that there were much better cases to pursue today.

 

 

No, Des.  Bush league is calling everything "stupid, dumb, terribad, awful, blah blah".  No wonder you can't get anybody to follow your lead.  I didn't ignore any of the case - I merely made a comment that should help you.

 

Eventually your little schoolyard tough guy routine will wear itself out, I suppose.

 

 

That's where you have it wrong tho. I DON'T just say that posts are bad. I explain why. And if people don't want to follow my lead because my tone is too harsh, that's their prerogative. I think I have shown more than enough times tho that I usually have some idea of what I'm talking about.

 

Moreover I still think you're carrying over your personal feelings you've had towards me lately. I still haven't forgotten what you said about me in that other game. You whine and emo yourself, don't act like you're so high and mighty.

 

Nope. Just voting theory. I've been monitoring voting patterns over the past few games and I've seen it happen over and over. On average, at least two scum are voted for on Day 1 and then never voted for again until some sort of revelation or mistake happens.

 

Also, somebody who escapes a large lynch train more than once is almost always scum or major PR.... hence... Serra.

 

So Hallia, Krak, or Serra.

 

Serra's my top choice, I moved my vote for pressure though for now.

 

I think it's a bad time to try out this voting theory of yours. You said yourself, we could be at Lylo. Not the best time for meta theories like that. I say we go with whoever has the best case on them today.

 

I think that's Ishy or Serra.

 

Ishy seems scummier between the two, Serra makes for a better info lynch since a few more people are linked to him.

 

Tina and BG, both of you I trust as town and are still active. Why have neither of you mentioned your feelings on Ishy?

[hazelkrs1]

Okay, I've neglected my game for long enough. Gonna go to sleep soon as well. Hope we can come to a consensus on a good lynch today, after all the work I put in. Will be pissed if it ends up being for naught anyways.

[bgrishinko]

Cause I'm horrible at reading Ishy mainly. 

 

No better time to test the voting theory I think, but meh, I can see it not gaining traction. My point on Krak though wasn't current time non-participation, but the fact he only had 3 posts in a thread he was town in and 20+ in the other two.

 

 

Unvote: Vote Serra.

[hazelkrs1]

Unvote, Vote Serra.

 

Okay, well even if you are bad at reading him, what did you think of the case I made on him/the points I raised?

 

How much time before deadline?

[hazelkrs1]

BG, don't you neglect my game too

[Verbal32]

That's where you have it wrong tho. I DON'T just say that posts are bad. I explain why. And if people don't want to follow my lead because my tone is too harsh, that's their prerogative. I think I have shown more than enough times tho that I usually have some idea of what I'm talking about.

 

Moreover I still think you're carrying over your personal feelings you've had towards me lately. I still haven't forgotten what you said about me in that other game. You whine and emo yourself, don't act like you're so high and mighty.

 

Heh, I don't whine or emo to the detriment of others.  You can project onto me all you like, it won't change anything.  My personal feelings about you are irrelevant.  That is where you get this whole mafia thing wrong.  You make it personal.  It isn't.

 

You learn that one simple fact, and you'll find you see mafia in a whole new light.

[hazelkrs1]

A day and 11 hours, we're still good. Believe that's L-4 on Serra.

[Verbal32]

Nope. Just voting theory. I've been monitoring voting patterns over the past few games and I've seen it happen over and over. On average, at least two scum are voted for on Day 1 and then never voted for again until some sort of revelation or mistake happens.

 

Also, somebody who escapes a large lynch train more than once is almost always scum or major PR.... hence... Serra.

 

So Hallia, Krak, or Serra.

 

Serra's my top choice, I moved my vote for pressure though for now.

 

Wouldn't the theory be the people that voted those people were distancing from them as teammates?  So you have to look at who was voted (and never re-voted), and also who was the one that parked a D1 vote on them, right?  To look for distancing?

 

Or do you just look at where known scum place their D1 & D2 votes?

[Verbal32]

Cause I'm horrible at reading Ishy mainly. 

 

No better time to test the voting theory I think, but meh, I can see it not gaining traction. My point on Krak though wasn't current time non-participation, but the fact he only had 3 posts in a thread he was town in and 20+ in the other two.

 

 

Unvote: Vote Serra.

 

Meh, I'm fine with trying new things.  (giggity)

 

We have people that dropped out or almost dropped out - Des is right in that town motivation is pretty low right now.  Better to lose while taking a shot at something different, eh?

[hazelkrs1]

Heh, I don't whine or emo to the detriment of others.  You can project onto me all you like, it won't change anything.  My personal feelings about you are irrelevant.  That is where you get this whole mafia thing wrong.  You make it personal.  It isn't.

 

You learn that one simple fact, and you'll find you see mafia in a whole new light.

 

 

I don't think I do either. I think I crossed the line in ONE game. Period. I apologized, I moved on. A lot of others haven't it seems. I understand taking some flak for that for a bit, that's fine. But get off your high horse brah. I'm not projecting on you, you were just whining about inactivity yesterday. And am I imagining all the things you said about me in that QT? YOU made it personal man, not me. I doubt your personal feelings for me are irrelevant when you apparently still harbor them and are trying to come down all judgmental against me.

 

You haven't once apologized for what you said either.

[Verbal32]

Mini cases:

 

Lenlo:

 

 

 

I think the biggest thing we need to do here is get organised. Being able to organise and effectively cross reference data between threads ((Such as he voted this person for doing this in this thread but didnt vote another person in another thread for doing the exact same thing.)) is going to be invaluable to us.

 

We cant treat these as 3 seperate games either, but 1 game in 3 threads. After all what if say 2 people on a scum team in thread 1 are using threads 2 and 3 for whatever. Plotting, setups, purposeful angering of players... We need to keep track of and use all this extra data were getting.

 

Didn't grab the first one, but Lenlo had a few posts like this early on in the game. Trying to look like a helpful townie.

 

"Come on yall! We gots to get organized!"

 

 

As I said in Thread 1, Csarmi I was against lynching you in all 3 threads but after that explosion not lynching you just wouldnt be worth it. Not only did that jump you up on my scumdar but it also makes you the most informative lynch in all 3 threads.

 

Vote Csarmi

 

 

Overstates how much he didn't want to lynch Csarlami at first, but the meltdown apparently pinged for him. Also just NOW catches on to the idea of the Csarlami metalynch being good for info? Don't buy it.

 

Eh... Im not seeing the Serra case. I see the language he was using and I dont think its a setup for a mass claim. Why setup in such an obvious way when it would be better if you outright said "I want a mass claim". Doesnt make sense to me.

 

Vote BG

 

To me it really looks like BG is forcing us to look at what Serra is saying in a way that he didnt mean for it to. Id be willing to switch to Cloud later, but I dont want to lynch Serra on that crap.

 

Ahhh I knew I missed one of the people fos'ing BG there for a bit. I think the votes and fos's on BG were a scum push on him.

 

He also defends Serra really strongly in this one. Also I highly disagree with his reasoning re: Serra's massclaim idea. Sounds too much like "Mafia would never do that" type argument, which is dumb.

 

 

 

unvote

 

Ok now im not sure what to do. Neither of you have any viewings we can test and there seems to have been an epidemic of fake claiming cop going around lately.

 

This stood out to me though. Len believed that I was mafia and that's why he voted for me, but afterwards when I obviously fake claimed to be the Cop he unvoted and said that he was torn on who to believe. I think he might be scum.

 

So because I was hesitant to not believe you I might be scum? If you havnt noticed my feelings on whos scum havnt exactly been good this game, so excuse me if im abit worried about who I lynch when they are claiming cop in a set of games where fake claiming has been rampant.

 

 

The ONE thing Cloud might have gotten right yesterday was his notice of this by Lenlo, how lenlo immediately unvoted. Literally EVERYONE else saw that Cloud's move made NO sense, that a Cop would never self vote. Lenlo was the one who wanted to appear cautious, then gets very prickly after being called out on it.

 

Vote cloud

 

Now hes hammered.

 

Prickliness continues. Lenlo seems to get too emotionally invested in every vote (hammer vote? Wasn't he the hammer on both Cloud and Csarlami?), or at least wants us to believe he's that emotionally invested.

 

 

 

How much did they pay you?

Got a counteroffer?

 

 

 

Seems pretty aloof. This is minor, but still. I think he's almost in gloat mode about his team being close to winning.

 

 

 

Razen:

 

 

 

 

 

Here's how I see the gambit playing out.

 

T1 just had Verbal killing off the cop with a vengeance kill after Tina revealed. Cloud was a vengeance kill in T2. So it is likely there is a vengeance kill here as well.

 

Peace makes a cop type of play to lynch Serra. Most people are going to believe that sort of act, because we've just seen it happen in T1 to great success. So using the Cross Game meta, Peace decides to throw this together knowing full well people will "Lemming".

 

Two fold advantage for scum, if Peace is a vengeance kill then it's a worthy sacrifice because 1. There is a really high chance the cop will counter claim or at least say something to doubt Peace.

2. Even if the cop says nothing at all, he's bound to be one of the remaining people who doesn't immediately vote. This narrows the NK pool drastically for cop hunting.

 

Well played scum gambit in the bag. That, Peace, is how I think this all went down.

 

I like this post.

 

Peace - I voted you because I think you tried to get the cop to claim. Perhaps it was a way to save Chuckles as well. That seems too obvious though but who knows.

 

 

I like it too.

 

It has to do with all of this forcing the cop to claim business.  I believe that is what he's trying to do.  But I don't see how letting him get off a vengeance kill by lynching him is going to help.  If you believe what BG is saying, I think there needs to be more serious discussion about it that the knee-jerk reactions a lot of people seem to be having.  Because I don't think a lot of people considered the theory that BG posted.  It's the only reason I can think of he'd have been so obvious about it.  Who knows?  His teammates might even have started the whole vote him for lying business as a way to get him lynched for that vengeance kill.

 

 

Completely convinced that both there IS a Vengeful Killer in this game (this was before more flips lent weight to the idea that all 3 games were similar setups), and that Peace is one.

 

 

 

honestly i dont want to waste a day on people going back and forth cuz of me, im town cop 

 

and is lily in the game?!!

 

id go with krak tbh, 

 

*facepalm*

 

Ffs man.. Why did you claim now without any kind of pressure?! Peace had the most votes on him and the only thing that you did with this move is most likely getting yourself killed tonight.

 

3 things:

 

1. I am again posting even though I probably shouldn't. It's 4am here, and checking how this thread is going is literally the last thing I'm doing before passing out. This is not me lurking, this is me having busy weekends... Surely, if I actually was following the thread, the most opportune time to vote peace, if I were scum trying to get him lynched, would have been DIRECTLY after he pulled the brake line.

 

2. I, too, would expect a Doc protection to only prevent a single kill. If this is different here, that'd actually quite surprise me. @mod: if a doctor role exists in this game, does it protect from multiple kills?

 

3. I believe chuckles' cop claim. There's should be now way in heck we're lynching him today. Yates is good for his unvote and further explanation. Nolder is less so. Even though I know no one will listen to my suggested play, my suggestion would be to ask the bullet-proof townie in this thread to claim, which would pretty much confirm that all 3 threads have the same PR's, meaning we can keep chuckles alive. Before anyone complains about me role-fishing: I suggest outing probably the weakest PR we have in this thread to stop people from lynching the cop, who may be our only hope of winning this, as well as giving us valuable information for the town-games in the other threads. If there actually is a bullet-proof townie in this thread and the two others, I would actually also consider the possibility that the game could be solved by a game-wide mass claim.

 

I will actually read the other threads tomorrow (probably morning)...

 

I actually really like this idea from Serra and after reading the last few pages I have a town read on him. 

 

 

I'm confused nolder, your saying that you'd rather lynch off an UN CC cop and have me reveal the 1 townie who will be the main focus of NK's come night, its as far as I can see a lose lose sitution for town

 

You need to get those results out there! It doesnt matter if the scum team is going to go after confirmed townies after you die, because it will be way worse if we waste our lynches on them! We can figure out a lot more with your info.

 

 

I prefer lynching serra

 

vote serra 

 

And we still have time, if everyone moves trains (ill be here till the DL, ill check in as often as I can)

 

Umm.. no. Peace is the way to go.

 

 

This post is enough to make me believe that Cloud is scum.  Here's why.  First of all, he puts on the fake "wtf, why did you reveal with no pressure on you at all" hat and tries to gain town cred.  He kept hammering home the point that Chuckles was going to get killed that night and used that as his reasoning to push him to reveal who his innocent was.  He even went so far as to justify Chuckles revealing the innocents so that we don't waste lynches on them after he's dead.  There's only one person at that point, but he's speaking as if there's a lot of people there that it could possibly remove from the picture.

 

Why was he so certain that Chuckles would be killed?  Normally, I'd believe it a semi-safe assumption to make, but there is a doctor still out there.  And no doctor's going to be dumb enough to not protect an un-CC'ed cop.  I think Cloud is going on blind faith in Chuckles because he knows that he's telling the truth.

 

Last, he pushes people to vote Peace over Serra.  This was after the hammer on Peace, but I think it interesting that Cloud agreed with Serra's idea re:BPV claim, and tried to direct Chuckles to vote for Peace.

 

Vote: Cloud

 

 

Overjustification for Cloud vote.

 

There was more, but Tina kinda already covered it. Also add my thoughts about how Razen could have been trying to mask his meta by being an early pusher on all three Csarlami lynches, but with a simple vote and nothing else in each.

 

 

 

Hallia:

 

 

 

You think?  So you don't know, for sure.  I agree with Len, that's pretty anti-town there.

 

Unvote

 

Agrees with Lenlo, one of the first people to fos Peace. Not much here, but meh there's not much you CAN glean from most of her posts.

 

He didn't seem to lose his cool, or spread wifom like fertilizer; I think he did fine?

 

Vote Peace

 

Defends Serra, and votes Peace, doesn't really give any clear reasoning.

 

 

My scum list atm:

Ishy - mainly for that exchange with Peace where he seemed like something was slowly dawning on him... that looked like way too fake of a reaction to the situation

GFY? EAD?

 

 

 

I know right?   First you don't talk enough, then you don't say the right things, no pleasing some people!

 

 

Covered this in the Ishy case, but yeah, sticks up for Ishy for pretty much no reason. Makes me think they were talking earlier on the QT about stuff like this.

 

I'm going with Cloud today.  He was early onto the Csarmi lynch with no reasoning really.  Looked opportunistic.   More recently he tried to start a lynch onto Chuckles, who has revealed himself as cop.  And lastly, what caught my eye was the way he tried to defend Peace at first when he was getting run up after the fake viewing on Serra.  It seems to me he was hoping to get some town credit by looking good and not voting for Peace when he seemed to be a sure lynch.  Then it stalled out, and sure enough he hopped onto the train after all as the deadline got closer.

 

Vote Cloud

 

Just awful, AWFUL reasoning in this post.

 

Bold:  Cloud stated his reasoning on the Csarlami lynch multiple times.

 

Italics: Why would that be relevant? He, along with me and Nol and others I think, were on Chuckles BEFORE he claimed Cop. The fact that he claimed cop afterwards doesn't mean diddly squat as far as any of our alignments go. Town is uninformed, remember?

 

Underlined: At that point, it looked like Peace was going to be the only lynch anyways.

 

Extremely weak reasoning for a vote on Cloud, especially considering there was much better reasoning out there.

 

 

Unvote vote tinker

 

Has been on my scum list along with Ishy. Either would do

 

I don't know about Ish, but I'm pretty comfortable with a tiink vote.

 

Vote Tiink

 

 

 

Another awful vote, and no stated reasons. WHY are you comfortable with this vote Hallia?

 

 

 

 

I like the Lenlo case.

[hazelkrs1]

 

Nope. Just voting theory. I've been monitoring voting patterns over the past few games and I've seen it happen over and over. On average, at least two scum are voted for on Day 1 and then never voted for again until some sort of revelation or mistake happens.

 

Also, somebody who escapes a large lynch train more than once is almost always scum or major PR.... hence... Serra.

 

So Hallia, Krak, or Serra.

 

Serra's my top choice, I moved my vote for pressure though for now.

 

Wouldn't the theory be the people that voted those people were distancing from them as teammates?  So you have to look at who was voted (and never re-voted), and also who was the one that parked a D1 vote on them, right?  To look for distancing?

 

Or do you just look at where known scum place their D1 & D2 votes?

 

 

Uh... that's pretty much what he was stating in his theory I think...

 

 

Cause I'm horrible at reading Ishy mainly. 

 

No better time to test the voting theory I think, but meh, I can see it not gaining traction. My point on Krak though wasn't current time non-participation, but the fact he only had 3 posts in a thread he was town in and 20+ in the other two.

 

 

Unvote: Vote Serra.

 

Meh, I'm fine with trying new things.  (giggity)

 

We have people that dropped out or almost dropped out - Des is right in that town motivation is pretty low right now.  Better to lose while taking a shot at something different, eh?

 

 

Argh. I did NOT spend 6-7 hours rereading and writing multiple cases on people just to "try something different". I put in that time and effort on the off chance that town might still be able to win this thing (extremely doubtful, but meh). If I was able to motivate myself, all the other non-emo's should be able to as well.

 

Vote Serra, or tell us who you WOULD like to vote Verbal.