Rand's Wager

[FetFnask]

So, it's almost over, huh? I've been reading and discussing WoT since the early 90s and there are just a few months left to wait. A strange feeling indeed.

 

Anyway, I have a... not theory, but an idea how Rand et al should/could reason regarding breaking the seals right away (or not).

 

The way I see it we basically have two active decisions and one passive:

1. Rand break the seals straight away before the war really breaks out (and goes to fight the DO).
    
   
2. Rand break the seals after most of the war is over or at least at the last possible moment (and goes to fight the DO).
    
   
3. Do nothing and wait and see what happens.
   

Option three (3) seems stupid both from a dramaturgical and strategical point of view, so let's ignore that for this discussion.

 

We can also identify two outcomes of Tarmon Gai'don:

1. Shai'tan is defeated and die / get resealed / something.
    
   
2. Shai'tan breaks free and the pattern goes to NUL.
   

Considering this we get four outcomes:

 

1. Rand break the seals straight away (and goes to fight the DO).

• Shai'tan is defeated and the shadowspawn armies at the very worst (from a Light perspective) get a lot weaker or perhaps even die off en masse.
  
• Shai'tan wins and all hope is lost.
  

2. Rand break the seals at the last possible moment (and goes to fight the DO).

• Shai'tan is defeated and the remaining shadowspawn armies get the effect as above.
  
• Shai'tan wins and all hope is lost.
  

The way I see it, from the perspecive of the Light, option 1 is clearly the best since, ceteris paribus, it is the best possible use of resources, lives and infrastructure both in long and short term.

 

A war of armies can actually be avoided if the shadowspawn die off with the Dark One. If not, well, then at least the are severely demoralized.

 

If Rand and his band of merry men fight the trolloc hordes first and then Shai'tan, massive losses will be had no matter the outcome. Caemlyn will not be the only great city to be reduced to a BBQ. Armies and nations will, without a doubt, be wiped out. Librarys will be burnt, people will flee. Famine and disease will reduce the population and possibly another Breaking like event will occur. This is even if the Dark One is defeated.

 

I say, why not try to avoid that?

 

Of course, this does not consider the probabilities of the two outcomes at the different courses of action, but we cannot know them and therefore not quantify them. What we do know is that the two options are there.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

EDIT: Added "(and goes to fight the DO)" for clarity.

[Rootbeer]

Not much difference if you considered only the end results.

 

If Rand doesn't break the seals until the last possible moment, then the DO won't have as much influence over the pattern as he could have otherwise. Say Rand waits a day. That means the Light forces will have one extra day to prepare, to perhaps work on that unity that he insisted was so important, and perhaps weaken the Dark forces before the DO could dish out the REAL hurt.

 

Personally, I think Rand should wait until his forces have a distinct advantage before he breaks the seal. The Light forces already have to deal with Darkfriends, Trolloc armies, evil channelers, and who knows what else. And they have to do it... All. At. Once. If the seals are broken, the DO would certainly influence the world so that it will hurt Rand's forces and aid his own. Who knows what other horrors he could unleash once he is free.

 

So, the Light forces will still have to deal with Darkfriends, Trolloc armies, etc, etc, but their battles will be considerably harder with the DO unrestrained by the seals.

 

Also, I would also like to add that Rand doesn't even have a plan to seal the Bore. He's really taking a gamble here.

[Hopefire]

How about Rand gives the Seals to Egwene to decide when to break them?

[Rocky_Outcrop]

How about Rand gives the Seals to Egwene to decide when to break them?

Ha ha... Like he throws them to her, from the other side of the field(s)?

 

Rand: Go long!

[FetFnask]

Not much difference if you considered only the end results.

 

I disagree.

 

If Rand doesn't break the seals until the last possible moment, then the DO won't have as much influence over the pattern as he could have otherwise. Say Rand waits a day. That means the Light forces will have one extra day to prepare, to perhaps work on that unity that he insisted was so important, and perhaps weaken the Dark forces before the DO could dish out the REAL hurt.

 

One day is one day more for death and destruction.

 

Personally, I think Rand should wait until his forces have a distinct advantage before he breaks the seal. The Light forces already have to deal with Darkfriends, Trolloc armies, evil channelers, and who knows what else. And they have to do it... All. At. Once. If the seals are broken, the DO would certainly influence the world so that it will hurt Rand's forces and aid his own. Who knows what other horrors he could unleash once he is free.

 

Not if Rand deals with the DO straight away. If we assume that his chances of beating the DO is equal whenever he decides to break the seals, then it stands to reason that it is pointless to waste resources fighting what is, essentially, a mundane proxy war.

 

So, the Light forces will still have to deal with Darkfriends, Trolloc armies, etc, etc, but their battles will be considerably harder with the DO unrestrained by the seals.

 

Yes, IF Rand breaks the seals and let's the DO influence the world without a confrontation. That is not what I meant though. Rand needs to break the seals and go to SG asap.

 

Also, I would also like to add that Rand doesn't even have a plan to seal the Bore. He's really taking a gamble here.

 

Agreed.

 

My point was that it is Rands fight with the DO that matters, not the armies. In much the same way that it's Frodo, the Ring and Mount Doom in LotR that matters and not the armies of Gondor and Rohan.

IF Rand has a plan, he should implement it as soon as possible to avoid the destruction of lives and infrastructure. Worst case scenario, given the defeat of the DO, is that the armies have to fight the shadowspawn and DFs with the DO out of the picture.

[Rocky_Outcrop]

But Egwene is concerned that it will strengthen the forces of darkness and doesn't know what would occur post seal breaking.

 

It is not known what the effects of removing the seals would be. All that is known is that before they were put on it was bad, real bad. When they were put on all that was bad was the crazy men. Now the taint is gone its easy to forget that the DO's influence is growing stronger every day. Most people would want to hit the snooze button in this situation since the only info they have is that the seals on the bore were made in a last gasp desperate attempt and that to remove them would put them back to squeaky bum time again.

[FetFnask]

Sure, but that isn't what I was concerned with for this topic.

 

Just the wager of doing it sooner rather than later. It will be a gamble either way, imo, so sooner is better. This is what is going to happen in AMoL I think, there isn't room in the book for anything else.

[Rocky_Outcrop]

It's a gamble either way, yes, and the downside is what I was getting at in my post. Ehhh, sorry, that's if you include Egwene in the decision making. To look at it for Rand's POV is different. And I don't think all the factors are being considered.

 

How about this, Slayer is going to attempt to kill Rand, therefore, do it before you get assassinated, but you didn't consider that above in your debate. Look at it exclusively fro Rands point of view and you'd be able to add a lot more to the list of factors infuencing the decision making.

[FetFnask]

I'm sorry, I don't get your point.

[Rocky_Outcrop]

My point is that you're presenting an ever so slightly ambiguous argument.

 

Are you saying the decisions are to be made with only Rand's perspective being taken into account? If so then there's more to it than you've suggested, ie, option 3 may not be an option at all, people are actually trying to kill him and they're not armatures.

 

If you're saying it's Rands wager - and he is the servant of the people - so Egwene's opinion matters, then you're not fully considering what the impact of breaking the seals would be if it took say a few weeks from the moment of breaking until the final solution... Say it takes 5 days - what could happen to the forces of light if the dark ones can give all baddies +50 hp sort of thing

 

Edit to add: from Rands POV, IMO, there only is 1 option, that's right away. His clock is ticking, he needs this to be done pronto, yesterday. If we only consider it from his POV then FoM is kind of about getting access to the seals rather than actually getting everyone on plan.

 

Another addition: As Rand is LTT he will presumably, at worst, be able to get a bunch of new seals made and redo it, so I don't see Rand considering the two option bs of the four outcomes you've stated, ie, shaitan breaking free while LTT lives is simply not going to happen (in LTT's head, at any rate).

[mjasghar786]

The thing about delaying faces 1 VERY SERIOUS problem

People are starving - food is being destroyed

Give it a month and half the light side armies may be dead if starvation - and that ignores the ordinary people who will die in their millions from starvation

[Rocky_Outcrop]

Absolutely, good point. Rand knows this. From his point of view he doesn't have a choice.

[FetFnask]

My point is that you're presenting an ever so slightly ambiguous argument.

 

Are you saying the decisions are to be made with only Rand's perspective being taken into account? If so then there's more to it than you've suggested, ie, option 3 may not be an option at all, people are actually trying to kill him and they're not armatures.

 

If you're saying it's Rands wager - and he is the servant of the people - so Egwene's opinion matters, then you're not fully considering what the impact of breaking the seals would be if it took say a few weeks from the moment of breaking until the final solution... Say it takes 5 days - what could happen to the forces of light if the dark ones can give all baddies +50 hp sort of thing

 

Edit to add: from Rands POV, IMO, there only is 1 option, that's right away. His clock is ticking, he needs this to be done pronto, yesterday. If we only consider it from his POV then FoM is kind of about getting access to the seals rather than actually getting everyone on plan.

 

Another addition: As Rand is LTT he will presumably, at worst, be able to get a bunch of new seals made and redo it, so I don't see Rand considering the two option bs of the four outcomes you've stated, ie, shaitan breaking free while LTT lives is simply not going to happen (in LTT's head, at any rate).

 

Ok, I see your point I think. I do believe this is Rands choice (and probably Perrins and Mats as well) since he is the one who will actually do it. And I believe being the active part is the wisest choice. Delaying only increases the odds of Rand or another key player getting taken out by the Shadow.

 

If, as you say, the DO buffs the shadowspawn, well... that will happen either way when the seals are broken. Taking on trollocs with +50 HP would be easier early on in the war rahter than later. Destroying the shadowspawn will probably more or less destroy human civilization again, ie another Breaking. Actually defeating the DO will be the only way to possibly avoid this.

 

mjasghar786 is correct. Delaying will only strengthen the Shadow, not the Light. Trollocs feed after battles and Dreadlords do not care about civilian casualties.

 

Every day Rand delays will be the potential death of thousands of people.

 

From a resource perspecitve, breaking the seals and facing the DO asap is the only logical choice.

[thisguy]

I'm not sure that when Rand seals the DO back up the Shadowspawn die out. Do we know that?

 

But, I don't know why they'd wait too long either way. There's too many baddies to hold out for that long.

[FetFnask]

I'm not sure that when Rand seals the DO back up the Shadowspawn die out. Do we know that?

 

As far as I know, we do not know. My reasoning is that it would be a possible bonus. Worst case scenario, they just get demoralized and/or disorganized.

[thisguy]

I'm all for the quick attack, the longer they take the worse it will be. I just think they're going to have to kill a lot of shadowspawn either way.

[claireducky]

What about the possibility that when Rand breaks the seals, the Dark One being free lends additional Power/Juju/Whatever to the forces of the Dark? As in, the Trollocs and Dreadlords and other baddies are able to fight harder and longer? Look at it this way-- Trollocs fight harder when there is a Fade driving them; how much more motivated would they be if the Dark One himself was free and at their backs?

 

Yes, that effect might be nullified or reversed once Rand does whatever he will do to the Dark One (and in no way is that certain), but that surge in power could be a big problem for the forces of Light until he can accomplish that.

 

If you consider that "surge" effect as a possibility, then logically it would be smarter to wait to break the seals until the battle has weakened those forces significantly.

[thisguy]

Even if that's true, the shadowspawn are already fighting and outnumber the good guys. So, if they wait, they'll be worn down and then when they're weaker and Rand breaks the seals you'll have your DO surge when the good guys have less left with which to fight.

[FetFnask]

What about the possibility that when Rand breaks the seals, the Dark One being free lends additional Power/Juju/Whatever to the forces of the Dark? As in, the Trollocs and Dreadlords and other baddies are able to fight harder and longer? Look at it this way-- Trollocs fight harder when there is a Fade driving them; how much more motivated would they be if the Dark One himself was free and at their backs?

 

Yes, that effect might be nullified or reversed once Rand does whatever he will do to the Dark One (and in no way is that certain), but that surge in power could be a big problem for the forces of Light until he can accomplish that.

 

If you consider that "surge" effect as a possibility, then logically it would be smarter to wait to break the seals until the battle has weakened those forces significantly.

 

As Tarmon Gai'don grinds on, the Light will become weaker due to fatigue, starvation and so on. It is more likely that the Shadow will get the upper hand the longer the Light waits.

[Elisaroth]

thats execly what rand told nayneve that they are running circles before climbing wall.

 

Enyway i think only way to win LB is to use true power to seal darkone. i had glimpse of idea when nayneve inspected rands madness,

one power cant be used becose wheel of time turing will eventualy grind whole into seals again.

 

OP - driveing force of wheel of time has 2 halfs saidin and saidar.

True power- power from "gods" Dark True power from Darkone and Light True power from creator.

Dark true power make things rot - true power/dark one effect that worl is rotting in blight.

Light true power make things grow - sort of got that idea from ogier singing and from glimpse of AOL when aiel/ogier/greenman sang to make fields grow.

 

allso there has been mention from that dark sister who gave info to egwene -.- dont remeber name told that last battle probably isint how rand is thinking it will be. Rand who is male channeler will most likely to think to use one power to seal / kill darkone.

[triadruid]

I'm not sure that when Rand seals the DO back up the Shadowspawn die out. Do we know that?

 

As far as I know, we do not know. My reasoning is that it would be a possible bonus. Worst case scenario, they just get demoralized and/or disorganized.

I cannot see any evidence for a die-off. The original Sealing of the Bore (imperfect) had no noticeable effect on Shadowspawn. Trollocs have certainly not pared back in their breeding with a limited Bore (cue Trolloc Wars). Etc... you're just fishing for hope.

[NitroS]

why does everyone think breaking the seals is so bad in the war of the shadow the dark one was let loose on the world for 80 years. yet egwene and rand are scared about a couple of days.

[triadruid]

Well, that was the time when the DO got to 'stretch' what Mierin and Beidomon made. There's pretty strong implication that he was able to reach further and further into the world as the Collapse/War of Power went on, and no real indication that the Seals actually made that hole any smaller. So if they're broken now, it's a reasonable fear that he would be starting from Q, not B.

 

That said, I agree that the fear is probably a bit overblown right now, but hey, 3,000 years of fear and ignorance will do that to you...

[TootThatHorn]

Only Egwene is scared of the implications of breaking the seals, as far as the DO being freed. Simply breaking the seals will not free him yet, he still has work to do, and I think Rand knows that. His influence will probably be much stronger, but in the time that LTT fought the dark, they had times where the Light were winning; it's not a done deal where you are fighting on your heels.

 

However I feel like some major things missing from this idea is that it's only given a round one. Rand can break the seals, potentially die, and come back to fight again. Also we have, if nothing else, some foreshadowing for a grind for the armies. It could come to Ishy knowing that the armies will have a bloody drawn out battle, given his speaking of the chess-like game he plays and how you can win by destroying all the pieces. But also, Rand could try to fight the DO, get killed, be brought back, and have a successful ran of it. Also I feel like there are a lot of foreshadowing for Rand to ultimately win the battle in TAR, or at least turn the tide from there.

 

Gotta disagree as well with Rand not knowing what he will do to win. In Ch.1 he says he has an idea that sounds risky, but it's obviously the one he thinks about the most, which usually ends up being the one you go with. So either Min or Moiraine come in with some new info to change his mind or reinforce this risky idea. I'm almost of a mind that he is going to seal himself away with the DO, locking up his soul in eternal struggle with the DO so as to never allow a never ending battle outside the pattern, thus keeping the DO from being sensed, and also stopping his soul from being reborn, in a sense causing a semi-paradox; soul + DO outside the pattern = no soul reborn = no fight against the DO = eternal freedom. Or even, you want a three become one? Throw Fain in there as well, even though the last thing I want is Fain anywhere near sealing the bore up.

 

Edit: Also, there is a chance Rand might not hang on to the seals. Just an idea I had just now, but knowing that he is probably a huge target, he may trust someone else with the seals, like Egwene, given she is the Watcher of the Seals, and agree on a time to break the seals. Perhaps not likely but it could happen since Perrin pretty much made Rand promise to work with her, even though I want Perrin to whip his hammer out and smash them in front of the whole of the Fields of Merrilor, but whatever.