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DRAGONMOUNT

A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

Werewolf, the alys mod version ;)


Alys Kinch

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Posted

well, 20 has this advantage: if they're younger, they'll enjoy being thought to be older, or more "mature." older than that, they'll take it as a compliment of young beauty. at least, in theory.

 

and no worries, raena. i admitted myself that it was based on no real evidence. main thing is that we got a wolf, right?

 

and, of course, that the hunter is a brilliant frickin' detective. 8)

 

okay okay, i'll shut up. had to get one more braggart moment in. :oops:

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Posted

Close but not quite goldeneys. 28.

 

Raena, you're right, I don't think for a moment that you would have taken that opportunity to frame me. On the other hand, since generally only two out of three PMs are needed to make a kill, it's possible that your partners did it without you or that it was done for another purpose entirely; for example maybe you thought Tessa had a good role. I like to think everything is about me but I have to at least wink in the direction of other possibilities. ;)

 

Damn. Just noticed something about the voting pattern. Be right back when I've analysed a bit more.

Posted

This is not my day. Here's my analysis based on actually looking at the voting patterns.

 

Raena only put the killing vote on a werewolf at the last possible minute, to save herself, when it was clear that loki was going down. If she's guilty, we have a clear candidate for the third werewolf. The final record shows clearly that only Danya did not vote for either Raena or loki-as-Nevare.

 

However, what makes this less likely is that loki voted for her! Now loki got lynched twice through basically no fault of his own, so I don't have much of an estimate of his mafia skills, but I'm willing to bet that this was not a carefully calculated distancing vote when he knew he was doomed because he voted for Raena six days before we finally got the five votes necessary to kill him. His was the second vote of the day. You just don't vote for somebody in that situation unless you're willing to start the lynch train rolling.

 

I admit you're making me paranoid Raena. I very much want you investigated tonight so I know one way or another, but dude has indicated that he's probably investigating somebody else, and I'm not sure how much longer I want you to survive on the off chance that you're innocent. On the other hand, having actually read the voting, you now look a lot less guilty than you did to me at first glance.

Posted

And here's my analysis of everyone else!

 

- the dude and I are lovably innocent innocents. I assume that the complete lack of a counter claim means that this has been accepted.

- Direwolf Jon has 1. asked to be investigated and 2. placed the second vote on a werewolf. Good man. Not suspicious.

- Danya popped up with a random vote for Zylazlo, making no reasoning at all, which looks very much like a last-ditch effort to derail the loki lynch train onto Zylazlo. The only reason I'm doubtful of her guilt is because she could easily have pushed the Raena lynch a bit further, but no, she went for an unrelated third party. Suspicious.

- Kadere voted Raena, again with no reasoning at all, which again looks like a last-ditch effort to derail the lynch on his partner. No reason to be doubtful of him. Very suspicious.

- Zylazlo is an innocent if Danya is guilty. Otherwise not sure.

- goldeneys initially voted for Raena but switched his vote to loki. I find this less suspicious than Kadere or Danya because of the timing of his switch; at the time he changed from Raena to loki each had three votes. If he was a werewolf, he should have stayed on Raena. Low suspicion.

 

Have I missed anyone?

Posted

Well, thank you, I guess. :P My reason for not voting for loki until the last minute simply was that I didn't think he was guilty. I was wrong. I have been wrong a lot this game. It makes me unhappy. Also, I tried, but maybe not too hard, to get people to vote for Kadere. But since no one seemed to want to do that, well, I voted for loki instead. I realize that it's suspicious to cast the last vote so late, but yeah. I was wrong about him.

 

Kadere is and has always been one of my top suspects.

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