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[Advanced Mafia] Black Ajah - GAME OVER!


Alanna

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Posted

Day 1 Nightkill obtained

Day 2 Nightkill obtained

Day 3 2 nightkills, how?

 

 

I'm thinking the BA are drew, csarmi, bg/tynall, song/mrliterate(dead), red(dead), mav(dead)

 

The short list from day 2:

csarmi,

Drew,

BG,

Talmanes,

Aust,

song,

 

Day 3 voted BG and csarmi, drew didnt vote for possible lynch because he was the target.

I think its csarmi and bg

or bg and drew on the same team

 

So I think we should look more closely at drew, csarmi and bg

Who looks the scummiest/shadiest?

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Posted

1) Curt, that post is very unclear to me. Can you explain what you mean better?

2) Curt, isn't it strange that you're voting for the same person as Red ALL three days?

Posted

1) Curt, that post is very unclear to me. Can you explain what you mean better?

2) Curt, isn't it strange that you're voting for the same person as Red ALL three days?

1) Means you've been found out

Lynches

Day 1: Berf, Song(MrL), Blackhoof, Tynaal(BG), Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Phelix: Saerin, Brown Ajah, Lynched Day 1

Mav - Moria, Black Ajah, Killed Night 1

 

Day 2: Talmanes, Aust, Wombat, Krak, csarmi, Drew, Song(MrL), BG, leelou

Berf - Elayne, Green Ajah, Lynched Day 2

Wombat - Yukiri, Gray Ajah, Killed Night 2

 

Day 3 (no lynch): Blackhoof, Curt, Red, AJ, leelou, Meesh, csarmi

Red - Delana, Black Ajah, Killed Night 3

Song MrLiterate - Liandrin, Black Ajah, Killed Night 3

 

csarmi, BG (backed off on a sure lynch), on 2 successful(meaning there was a lynch) and one unsuccessful

Both lead to a night kill

 

Drew on 2 lynches and by default couldn't be on the 3rd

Thalamas and aust on 2 lynches

song and red same as above but are dead

 

2)Coincidence or maybe Red did it on purpose.

But here are the facts:

I also voted with berf who you guys hanged. I also defended him before you did yet he died anyway. Red also voted after me on 2 days. Day 1 I voted for who everyone else was voting for. There really isn't anyway to know who isnt scum besides who is on your team. Day 2 I voted black who I thought was scummy and now based on the recent actions I dont think he is.

Day 3 I voted for drew who I would vote for again because he is on my list of who I am sure are black.

 

 

 

Actually looking at it more I see the teams solidly as BG and drew with csarmi as the single survivor of the other BA team

BG ran to defend Drew, then voted csarmi

csarmi was defending red but kinda saying he wasnt

 

on that note:

vote csarmi

Let's see if we can get rid of one team completely

BG is real close with drew next

Posted

 

I also voted with berf who you guys hanged. I also defended him before you did yet he died anyway. Red also voted after me on 2 days. Day 1 I voted for who everyone else was voting for. There really isn't anyway to know who isnt scum besides who is on your team. Day 2 I voted black who I thought was scummy and now based on the recent actions I dont think he is.

Day 3 I voted for drew who I would vote for again because he is on my list of who I am sure are black.

 

 

Thanks for letting the scum know that there are Mason teams as well Curt. Really helpful. Since you put it out there and you are under a little bit of suspicion for lining up with Red as a team, why don't you let us know who IS on your team. It will help to verify your town claim, others will be able to back you up.

Posted

Bg, are you doing this on purpose?

 

Read the rules.

You may not speak about who you are on one team with.

Not to mention it shouldn't be too wise. Any info you reveal might be help for the maffia (remember, they must not who the innocents are either!)

As for the masons teams, read the opening post (or the gign up posts). Everyone is on a team, thats common knowledge.

Posted

Absolutely no alignment or team reveals are allowed. This mean you cannot say 'I am on Team A' or 'I am on a team with him and her.'

 

 

Thanks csarmi. Too many mafia games at one time. I gotta keep track better, or I'm going to get myself modkilled.

Posted

Alright, its pretty silent around here. I'm going to assume that everyone is off at JordanCon having a great time without me. In the meantime, I'm going to look at Red's past... then maybe Song/MrL later.

BLACKHOOF

 

out of everyone right now, imo he's been scummiest. next on my list is Aust.

 

i dunno abotu Phelix, i'm on the fence with him right now. he woudl give alot of info, so for that alone i'm willing to change my vote to him.

 

Red pushed pretty hard on Blackhoof most of the serious part of Day 1 (I kinda glaze over the first few pages of nonsense) all the way up to the last second until...

i agree with Talm. Blackie is the scummier of the two, yet people seem to be going all tunnel vision on Phelix which isn't good even if he does turn out to be scum thats slipped up. if we act like this on every lynch, the scum will be able to easily direct our movements you guys.

 

i'd like to have dragged this out a little longer, to pressure Blackie a bit more; but at this point with him being L-1 i don't see how anyone will change their minds.

 

 

UNVOTE

VOTE: PHELIX

 

 

well, the way i see it, town outnumber scum 4/1, so w3e can AFFORD to lose at least 3 town for every 1 scum. its not that i LIKE that a townie is probably gonna get lynched today, (there is a 3/4 chance since we usually lynch without real evidence) but we can AFFOrd the loss, in a war of attrition, the scum lose. i am merely saying that if phelix is town and dies, it is not a big deal. it is only a big deal if he is a good role, hence my question. besides, if he revealed his role and his lynch swelled suddenly, we know who to look at for scum....

 

 

imo, any townie lost is one townie too many. the scum have a major advatage in the game as they can not only try to sway the lynch toward a townie, but they also have a NK. in this game, we have an even harder problem of it, because there are sure to be more than one scum team; which means multiple townies are gonna die every night.

 

while phelix gives us the most info, and Day 1 is generally more about getting info than snagging a scum; i'd perfer to lynch someone like you who is not only really scummy but would also give us alot of info.

 

it's not only losing roles that you have to worry about, it's also a numbers game too.

 

 

 

She reluctantly switches over to Phelix, probably to gain a NK as there wasn't even a deadline at this time.

 

 

 

good on ya for who ever took out the scum thoguh.

 

i agree that this does prove that we have at least 2 kills per night to worry about. seeing as this kill was done in the rebel camp, the OP specifically states that a Forsaken (aka Aran'Gar) is doing the killing there. this makes me think it was a SK who got the BA member last night, not another scum group.

 

 

i don't think we can use the lynch to figure out the SK either, as only scum need to have their entire team on the lynch to get the NK. so theres that. and i can't see the scum willingly giving up a NK no matter what, that mav wasn't on the lynch speaks to why they didn't have the NK; so i'm guessing the rest of the team would be on the lynch. which makes those who aren't on the lynch less likely to be scum imo

 

 

VOTE: BLACKHOOF

 

he was on the lynch, and i still find him scummy from Day 1

 

 

Day 2 starts and she immediately picks up her Blackhoof campaign again... she never drops her vote.

 

 

 

guys, i can see why people would focus on Leelou even though she's not on the list, those last 3 votes on berfs lynch stink to me as well.

 

also, Wombat is a curious choice, was it an attempt at a frame job, big game hunting, or did he have teh scum scared. he FoS'd Song & Aust heavily so this is somehting i think worth pointing out. both of these people were on both lynches btw. with Song being one of those scummy votes (to include CS's pointing out of her "slip up" of what L-# Song put him at with her vote)

 

i also agree that the short list is gonna bare us the most fruit. again, i can't see a scum willingly give up a NK, i happen to think both teams were likely on the last lynch and the healer did a good job by blocking one of the kills or both teams went for Wombat. this means we have a higher % chance of finding scum in the short list; as i think all members except for Mav were on the 1st lynch, and all scum members were on this last lynch. i also no longer thing theres a SK, given what Alanna said about "teams" being able to secure a perminate NK; as the words teams indicated 2 or more groups.

 

 

The Short list

 

Talmanes,

Aust,

csarmi,

Drew,

Song,

BG,

 

 

since we know Phelix was town, maybe he had some inside knowledge about the 3 thing. going on this assumption (as well as there only being 2 scum teams) this would put the remaining scum 3's at "Team A - 3" & Team B-2" that leaves 5 total scum alligned people. this means that 1 on our list is likely to be town, while the rest are likely to be scum (which is pretty good odds if you ask me)

 

out of this list, i find these 4 to be most scummy

 

Aust & Song are equally scummy imo, for reasons both myself & wombat have pointed out

 

Drew & BG are next, on top of what others have pointed out on Drew, i also find the exchange quoted below to be suspicious.

 

 

this leaves CS & Talms as potential innocents and these are the two i'd be less willing to vote. Talms is higher on my list than CS because today he tried (& almsot succeeded too) in getting us to lynch womone not on our list where it's most likely to find a scum.

 

 

I am kinda leaning towards Drew since he was so fast to put together an argument against someone who isnt on the red hot list

 

This argument doesn't make any sense, Curt, unless you think each person on the "red hot list" is on my scum team. Your implication is that I'm trying to draw attention away from everyone on that list. I would try to put together a wagon against someone on that list who wasn't on my team.

 

I think it is obvious that Drew is talking using Curt's Drew accusation as "truth." A sort of, "If I were scum..." way of saying things. I think it obvious from the bolded part.

 

FOS at Drew & BG. Drew for the fruedian slip and BG for comming to his defence.

 

 

Day 3 through, her tune changes and basically forgets about Blackhoof and her accusations. (It is brought up at one point, she quotes herself from Day 1, then promptly ignores it). I'm not sure what to make of it except she gave up on trying to get people to vote Blackhoof at this point. This improves my opinions of Blackie. She begins moving suspicion over at me and Drew at this point.

 

 

 

 

you know, another thing comes to mind.

 

 

if i were scum and were in this situation, i'd try to destract away from the whole list idea. especially considering that our chances of hitting scum are between 40% to 95% (2 scum beign the least amount on the lynch to achieve a NK, 5 scum being the most)

 

 

major FOS at Talm for attempting to focus a lynch on someone not on the list and less likely to be scum

Since I've looked at the numbers already, I think it is my duty to point this out.

 

 

Uh... 40% to 95%? Assuming you are still talking about the Scary Six... 2/6 = 33.3% and 5/6 = 83%...

83% is assuming BOTH ENTIRE mafia teams are located within the Scary Six.

 

But we don't even know for certain (although it is likely) that Team A was on both lynches, and that the newer people on vote 2 were not on Team B. Your numbers don't pan out and that is A LOT of conjecture to make.

 

 

 

Over implying that an abundance of Scum are in the scary six. I think that we can see now, with Red flipping Scum, that she was probably one of the Team A possibly with Song. Team B would have to be a different team then. Trying to implicate the 6 keeps herself out of the spotlight and attention focused elsewhere. I still think scum exist within the 6, but I'm starting to fully doubt that a single full team exists within the 6.

 

 

i agree that if there is a NK tonight it will show eliminate for good any suspicion i had about a SK *nods* most times SK's can't not kill. if there is a kill tonight ... we'll just have to see what morning brings

 

I hate random lynches... but...

 

I don't feel justified voting out Drew right now. I guess we need to take the risk.

 

random lynches are never good. we get next to no info off a random lynch because of how info is gained from a lynch. justified or not, you shoudl have voted as it would not only tell us if he is scum, but also highlight more possible scum as well as clear up some speculation regaurding the list.

 

not to mention fewer people who are on the list weren't on Drews vote and there for would help eliminate some people off the list and shorten the noose around the scums neck.

 

MAJOR FOS BG. either your one of Drews teamates and twon, or your scum and know its better for you and your scum buddies to lynch someone not on the list.

 

 

 

And in the end, she again is doing her darndest to link me and Drew together as the most likely Scum suspects.

 

Now that doesn't write the 3 of us off as Town, but I think that it at least shows that Drew/Red/Blackhoof weren't on the same scum team.

Posted

BG, I like your case, and I'd like to point out that all the scum are dying during the night time. Somehow we're lynching the town and they're killing off the scum, isn't that a little backwards? I'm pretty certain there are two hearts at play.

 

I knew Song was pinging me at the beginning of the game... hehe.

 

As for Drew, I'm leaning town on him now, the same for Blacky (who Red was going after so much like BG said) and Aust who attacked Red so openly. I'm unsure about Csarmi, I'll have to go back and case him when I get a chance.

 

Vote Talmanes

Posted

Two observations right now:

 

With 2 NKs last night, the more I think about it, I think there's an SK. First, it seems strange that both mafia teams would have already earned a permanent NK (I'm kind of shocked even one has). Second, Red's conviction about there being an SK on the second day. Her flipping scum means she might not have had her whole team on the first day's lynch target, Phelix, and Mav was on the other scum team. So if her team didn't make the kill, and the other team didn't make the kill (because on of theirs died), then she must have known there was another killing role.

 

So with that in mind, I reread some stuff looking for a possible SK. I really think it might be Player. He's talked, like, two or three times, he hasn't voted for two straight lynches, and he his vote was on Red for the first lynch (1 of 2 votes). I don't think lurking is his meta, and in this game it's not a good idea for town not to vote (though we sure haven't done a great job of it yet). Someone correct me if I'm missing something with this little case.

 

The only other thing that majorly pings me is Curt voting with Red three times in a row. It's hard to analyze, but I think this is the only situation (that I can tell) where someone has voted with a confirmed scum on all three days. This seems like it could be a gem of a find by whoever found it (sorry).

 

So I have two really strong ideas, I think, but I want to see what others think before putting a vote down on either. I don't know which way to lean right now, because the existence of an SK isn't verified, and if there is an SK he or she has been doing a lot of work for the town on accident. Scumhunting should come first, I guess, but there should only be, what, three scum left?

Posted

Ok so I didn't end up being on a computer last night so I couldn't do my reread, because there is no way I was going to do it on my phone.

I'm posting it now, and I will respond to newer replies after.

Also to keep my post shorter, I'm listing post numbers instead of quotes. I will, however, go get the quotes if requested.

 

Ok so after reread, here is my analysis on the people on the first two lynches that are still alive. I left myself out, because, let's face it, that part is your job.

 

Blackhoof:

#128-Votes on Phelix with very slim and repeated reasoning.

Not on second lynch.

 

Tynaal/BG:

#130-Votes Phelix using the three thing, the popular reason at the time

#326-Votes on Berf, stating he already stated he was ok with a Berf lynch

 

Aust:

#145-Votes Phelix with fairly sound sounding reasoning

#311-Votes Berf, mainly for trying to throw suspicion on Blackhoof

 

Drew:

#166-Votes Phelix, exaggerating his defemse as a reason

#321-Votes Berf, close to the end, acts as if Berf being scum is fact, and makes an odd comment about the three thing

 

Curt:

#169-Votes Phelix for controlled lynch

Not on second lynch

 

Csarmi:

#181-Votes Phelix to get day one to end quicker

#320-Votes Berf after commenting on all the popular lynch candidates, saying it is to back up his words

 

That being said, my two main conclusions from this are as follows:

1. Aust does not seem to be in the least bit scummy. Either he is doing a damn fine job as mafia, or he is town. Just my opinion.

2. I finally get some of the suspicions on Drew now. I wasn't really seeing that much on him before, but seeing his reasoning for being on both lynches, really makes him strike me as scum.

 

This situation just got a whole lot more confusing IMO as well. We only had one kill on night one and two.

For night one, we know at least that Mav was mafia and not on the kill, so we can expect anywhere from 3-5 scum on that lynch judging by the fact that there was a nightkill.

For night two, since there was a kill, we can expect anywhere from 2-4 scum on the lynch.

This whole thing is messed up with the fact that there were two NKs the day there was no lynch.

This means one of three things:

1. We have two people that are either SK or Vig or one of each.

2. We have one mafia team with a permanent kill, with a combination of either a SK or Vig.

3. Both teams have permanent kills.

 

Now if we DO have a Vig or SK, which I was pretty sure we didn't before this, that could mean that any of the other kills could have been made by them, and not one of the mafias.

I find it unlikely that both teams have managed to do whatever they have to do to get a perma-night kill so early in the game, but it is certainly a possibility.

 

All that said, based on his votes on the first two lynches, and not just that he was on them, but specifically because of his reasoning, I'm voting Drew

Posted

1) Curt, that post is very unclear to me. Can you explain what you mean better?

2) Curt, isn't it strange that you're voting for the same person as Red ALL three days?

1) Means you've been found out

Lynches

Day 1: Berf, Song(MrL), Blackhoof, Tynaal(BG), Aust, Drew, Curt, Talmanes, csarmi, Red

Phelix: Saerin, Brown Ajah, Lynched Day 1

Mav - Moria, Black Ajah, Killed Night 1

 

Day 2: Talmanes, Aust, Wombat, Krak, csarmi, Drew, Song(MrL), BG, leelou

Berf - Elayne, Green Ajah, Lynched Day 2

Wombat - Yukiri, Gray Ajah, Killed Night 2

 

Day 3 (no lynch): Blackhoof, Curt, Red, AJ, leelou, Meesh, csarmi

Red - Delana, Black Ajah, Killed Night 3

Song MrLiterate - Liandrin, Black Ajah, Killed Night 3

 

csarmi, BG (backed off on a sure lynch), on 2 successful(meaning there was a lynch) and one unsuccessful

Both lead to a night kill

 

Drew on 2 lynches and by default couldn't be on the 3rd

Thalamas and aust on 2 lynches

song and red same as above but are dead

 

2)Coincidence or maybe Red did it on purpose.

But here are the facts:

I also voted with berf who you guys hanged. I also defended him before you did yet he died anyway. Red also voted after me on 2 days. Day 1 I voted for who everyone else was voting for. There really isn't anyway to know who isnt scum besides who is on your team. Day 2 I voted black who I thought was scummy and now based on the recent actions I dont think he is.

Day 3 I voted for drew who I would vote for again because he is on my list of who I am sure are black.

 

 

 

Actually looking at it more I see the teams solidly as BG and drew with csarmi as the single survivor of the other BA team

BG ran to defend Drew, then voted csarmi

csarmi was defending red but kinda saying he wasnt

 

on that note:

vote csarmi

Let's see if we can get rid of one team completely

BG is real close with drew next

 

 

 

I also voted with berf who you guys hanged. I also defended him before you did yet he died anyway. Red also voted after me on 2 days. Day 1 I voted for who everyone else was voting for. There really isn't anyway to know who isnt scum besides who is on your team. Day 2 I voted black who I thought was scummy and now based on the recent actions I dont think he is.

Day 3 I voted for drew who I would vote for again because he is on my list of who I am sure are black.

 

 

Thanks for letting the scum know that there are Mason teams as well Curt. Really helpful. Since you put it out there and you are under a little bit of suspicion for lining up with Red as a team, why don't you let us know who IS on your team. It will help to verify your town claim, others will be able to back you up.

 

This looks quite scummy to me, even as a mistake, it seems a very scummy thing to say.

BG, I like your case, and I'd like to point out that all the scum are dying during the night time. Somehow we're lynching the town and they're killing off the scum, isn't that a little backwards? I'm pretty certain there are two hearts at play.

 

I knew Song was pinging me at the beginning of the game... hehe.

 

As for Drew, I'm leaning town on him now, the same for Blacky (who Red was going after so much like BG said) and Aust who attacked Red so openly. I'm unsure about Csarmi, I'll have to go back and case him when I get a chance.

 

Vote Talmanes

 

Um...is it just me, or did you not even mention me in your post except to vote for me? I don't mind people making arguments against me, but I don't even see one here.

Two observations right now:

 

With 2 NKs last night, the more I think about it, I think there's an SK. First, it seems strange that both mafia teams would have already earned a permanent NK (I'm kind of shocked even one has). Second, Red's conviction about there being an SK on the second day. Her flipping scum means she might not have had her whole team on the first day's lynch target, Phelix, and Mav was on the other scum team. So if her team didn't make the kill, and the other team didn't make the kill (because on of theirs died), then she must have known there was another killing role.

 

So with that in mind, I reread some stuff looking for a possible SK. I really think it might be Player. He's talked, like, two or three times, he hasn't voted for two straight lynches, and he his vote was on Red for the first lynch (1 of 2 votes). I don't think lurking is his meta, and in this game it's not a good idea for town not to vote (though we sure haven't done a great job of it yet). Someone correct me if I'm missing something with this little case.

 

The only other thing that majorly pings me is Curt voting with Red three times in a row. It's hard to analyze, but I think this is the only situation (that I can tell) where someone has voted with a confirmed scum on all three days. This seems like it could be a gem of a find by whoever found it (sorry).

 

So I have two really strong ideas, I think, but I want to see what others think before putting a vote down on either. I don't know which way to lean right now, because the existence of an SK isn't verified, and if there is an SK he or she has been doing a lot of work for the town on accident. Scumhunting should come first, I guess, but there should only be, what, three scum left?

 

Oh the irony. I make my post, ending with voting you, only to then notice you actually made some similar points to me.

I agree that Player is a possible SK, but then again so is just about everyone. I'm more inclined to think that he has just been busy, and therefore inactive. I've been much the same lately.

 

So I think my reasons still stand enough for now.

Also I sincerely apologize for how inactive I've been this game. I don't like to be inactive, but I've been extra busy. Both my games have been suffering, and I think after both are over, I'll take a break from mafia.

Posted

I'm thinking that Player may just be inactive at this point, possibly JordanCon. He has been absent other places on Dragonmount as well for quite a few days.

Posted

interesting... TWO NK's.... the scum seem to be killing themselves more than us at this point, so it appears as though victory is inevitable. :happy:

 

anyway, time to hunt down another possible scum.

Vote csarmi

 

ive already said why.

 

player is also a lynch i will get behind, as he DOES seem to be a lay-low SK that has nothing to gain or lose by being on a lynch. it would also explain his odd reaction to my "missing lynches is good for you" remark.

Posted

Im not a SK but thats something I havent been accused of in my mafia career.

Im not at JordanCon either, I live in NZ, Ive just had the end of my term thats all. I still stand by my no lynch thing. I think that you lose info not lynching, especially since there were two night kills. Luckily mafia died not innocent but if that had been two town dead that would have been terrible.

Im still not inclined for a csarmi lynch im much more keen for a BG lynch

Posted

I'd like to add that even if Player was an SK (or anyone else, for that matter), we still wouldn't know if he was playing for the town or the maffia. Three maffia down out of four nightkills is a LOT.

Posted

That's why when I mentioned it I said a Vig or a SK.

No matter who is doing it, they seem to be a lot better at finding scum than we are.

But hey, as long as scum die, I guess who kills them doesn't matter all that much.

Posted

it could be chance that he (SK) targeted scum, (a slim chance) but how would he know who was who anyhow? he could only guess, also a slim chance.

 

strange....

 

i dont think that the scum would target each other intentionally, because even if they had separate win conditions, they would (logically) leave each other till last and ocncentrate on town.

 

with half of them down, i dont fancy scums chances of winning this game.

Posted

This is getting very interesting.

I think it's time to go back and analyze everyone, one by one.

 

We should take a good look at

1) the intro post

2) who voted, what and when

3) what did everyone post, especially those we know are scum

4) what do we think the scum teams are, for example, who was teamed with who

5) if there is a vigilante, who that might be and where does he/she get the information

6) if there is an SK, how come maffias are targeted mostly. is the SK some forsaken with full information? but if so, who could be in team with a forsaken

6) why are the maffia teams killing each other

7) how come they even MANAGE to hit each other? doesn't that suggest there might be more maffia then we think there are?

8) how could the maffia gain permamnent NK

9) how many teams gained a permanent NK and why?

10) Why was Wombat NK'd Night Two? (why making the short list even shorter?) The same goes for night 3. Wouldn't it make more sense to target people OUTSIDE the lynch lists (and especially outside the Scary Six?). For me this only makes sense if there are scum on the OUTSIDE, among those that we 'know' for not being scum and they're trying to frame those INSIDE the lists.

 

Anyway I'll do a readup and I'll post my thoughts I just don't know when as I'm busy today and I can't even login tomorrow and wednesday will be a long day too...

 

For now, I won't be casting my vote.

Posted

i dont think that the scum would target each other intentionally, because even if they had separate win conditions, they would (logically) leave each other till last and ocncentrate on town.

 

Why would they leave each other for last?

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