[s]Goal: 100,000 New Goal: 200,000[/s] New Goal: 250.000

[Ithillian Turambar]

Ah ... You don't get shown other people's guesses - they will be done via PM. But in the Game Thread the Mod will say if a card was shown or not. So if someone asks if Elaida has Rand in the White Tower in a Box, and you have already been shown the Elaida and Box cards from your own gueses, and the Mod posts 'shows card' you know that person has just been shown the White Tower Card.

 

This is why I can't work it out.

 

The Witnessess are basically just a way of randomly dividing the cards so players don't always get a positive result.

 

I hope you are all having fun with my problem.

[Ithillian Turambar]

If they ask a question of a certain witness, and that witness does not hold the information they require. The Mod will simply post - No Card Shown and another player can have a go.

 

It won't go round till they get a positive answer.

[Smiley73]

rrrawr

[Aiel Heart]

I was just interjecting that I have no clue what you guys are talking about right now

[Aiel Heart]

This is a spam thread first and foremost after all :D

[Ithillian Turambar]

I was just interjecting that I have no clue what you guys are talking about right now

 

Love it

 

>.>

[Crimson_Ayla]

Baaaad joke :D

 

Heheheheheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

[Crimson_Ayla]

Now I remember why I was so happy to finish statistics :/ You may want more than 2 guesses then.

 

There are so many possibilities, if you wanted an accurate answer it could take ages. But by simplifying and *hopefully* logic, I would say maybe 4 or 5 guesses...

 

But I am going out now, so Pants can do it for you, I'm sure

 

Have fun :)

[Ithillian Turambar]

Cool. Thanks for the help :)

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

rrrawr

 

everything OK?

[Pantsonfire]

Ok I'll be honest the sheer number of possible outcome swaps me.....

 

If you go for sheer process of elimination, that is checking off every single card that is not one of the 3 it will take 27 individual turns or 156-162 turns over all depending on where the winning player is in the playing order.

 

But of course a smart player will go for the tactic of using a suspect and a location that they have in their hand/already know for example to figure it out. ie when they are not shown a card they know that it is the weapon in this example.If this was done the chances of the game finishing in the following amount of turns is:

 

3 turns (least possible) = 0.037

6 turns = 0.042

 

9 = o.o48

12 = 0.056

 

15 = 0.067

18 = 0.087

21 = 0.1111

24 = 0.3333

27 = 1 (guarranteed)

These do not take into account the cards dealt at the beginning because they could belong to the 3 groups in any possible way.

 

IMHO I think factoring in the beginning cards you're looking at 15 individual turns (90 or so over all) for a quick game, but likely to be longer. No longer than the turns mentioned at the start.

Edited November 19, 2011 by Pants On Fire

[Pantsonfire]

..... My spacing screwed up

[Aiel Heart]

Hey fire pants, shouldn't you be in bed? :P

 

And are you getting any new dragon eggs soon?

[Ithillian Turambar]

That's just brilliant Pants :). It definitely helps me with how long I want it to go on for. 3 guesses would have it last a week ish, 2 guesses maybe two weeks, but would be much easier for the Mods to manage.

 

You still have questions to answer by the way

[Pantsonfire]

Now don't go and place your life savings in a wager on this..... However an approximation of how many turns it actually took when you're done would be awesome =)

[Pantsonfire]

Well ignore the odd spacing and hope for the best.....

 

And that I haven't misinterpreted part of your question/game lol

 

 

 

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

go to leep, sleepy pants. this turned out badly for you last time.

[Pantsonfire]

1321720136[/url]' post='2042554']

If they ask a question of a certain witness, and that witness does not hold the information they require. The Mod will simply post - No Card Shown and another player can have a go.

 

It won't go round till they get a positive answer.

 

 

 

And I just read this. Soooooo, that working was for 1 positive response per turn. If there is the possibility for 'no card' that becomes a problem for a time other than 4am..... Lol sorry

[Ithillian Turambar]

I will definitely let you know :)

[Ithillian Turambar]

Hahaha silly aussie go to sleep. It's ridiculously late/early there.

[Pantsonfire]

go to leep, sleepy pants. this turned out badly for you last time.

 

 

Lol.

 

But I have the weekend off work

 

Which means I get to snooze my day away......

 

 

 

 

[Ithillian Turambar]

Oh well in that case ... Go finish off your 50 questions.

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

sleep, pants. the internet will be here whe you wake.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uswb6UejP7Q

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fX1vfJny1rk

[Mrs. Cindy Gill]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObQgmsqksrQ