Sul'dam and damane

[didymos]

Yes, the over-supply means not very many sul'dam are complete for very long. But even if it's a very, very small percentage, the statistical chances that say, 15 out of 10,000 sul'dam would test positive every year is good and even that sort of number would be difficult to conceal because you'd never know where it was going to happen.

 

So, um, these very factual sounding statistics...where'd you get them from?

 

In any case: this doesn't matter. I just checked: per the Glossary, they only test up to the maximum spark age (or what they think is the max spark age. Women spark pretty young, so I'm pretty sure that testing up to 25 stuff is...not what actually happens. Or it does, and it's wasted effort. Not that that matters). The Seanchan will just write them off as uncaught marath'damane because they know that's the maximum age for sparking. It's just "common knowledge" that those few were false marath'damane negatives, and everyone just knows that the "real" sul'dam can't channel. And those "proper" sul'dam simply will not start channeling on their own under anything resembling normal circumstances. It took the three with Mat a long time to finally do it and they knew the a'dam could hold them and it still took some pretty serious stress even then.

[Sharaman]

Yes, the over-supply means not very many sul'dam are complete for very long. But even if it's a very, very small percentage, the statistical chances that say, 15 out of 10,000 sul'dam would test positive every year is good and even that sort of number would be difficult to conceal because you'd never know where it was going to happen.

 

So, um, these very factual sounding statistics...where'd you get them from?

 

In any case: this doesn't matter. I just checked: per the Glossary, they only test up to the maximum spark age (or what they think is the max spark age. Women spark pretty young, so I'm pretty sure that testing up to 25 stuff is...not what actually happens. Or it does, and it's wasted effort. Not that that matters). The Seanchan will just write them off as uncaught marath'damane because they know that's the maximum age for sparking. It's just "common knowledge" that those few were false marath'damane negatives, and everyone just knows that the "real" sul'dam can't channel. And those "proper" sul'dam simply will not start channeling on their own under anything resembling normal circumstances. It took the three with Mat a long time to finally do it and they knew the a'dam could hold them and it still took some pretty serious stress even then.

 

The stats are totally random -- we know that Seanchan has a huge number of damane and going by what we learnt, about 3x or 4x as many sul'dam.

According to RJ about 1-2% of populations are channeling capable, and about 1/2 are men. Of the women, one in 4 or 1 in 5 is a sparker.

We can extrapolate up from Aiel populations and channelers. There were, for example, 500-odd Shaido channelers.

Seanchan is a huge continent with much larger populations than the Aiel+Westland.

We've been referenced battles with hundreds of damane on either side.

So I took a random guess that at least 10K sul'dam would be "on the books".

(Edit: My logic : roughly 6000 Aiel saidar channelers in a population of about 10-12 million-odd. Of them,around 5K could be non-sparkers. Hence 10K sul'dam would be a conservative estimate for a Seanchan population that is multiples larger.)

 

Just 15 strikes out of 10K is a very small percentage - it could be 5/10/50 / any small number.

The point is, since we're talking about testing millions of women, even a small percent of sul'dam testing positive would still be a significant number.

 

The testing till age 25 is directly referenced from the books (Either Bethamin or Tuon thinks about it, probably Bethamin in WH)

The testing starts around puberty roughly, since Alivia was collared at age 12-13.

So the average woman is tested maybe 12-13 times before she passes what they consider the max age.

They test for both characteristics, first for damane (are they held by the collars?) and then for sul'dam.

 

It's very clear from the texts that sul'dam don't test positive as damane. If they did, the whole horror and shock thing would not occur. They would just shrug and write off Seta, Renna, Bethamin as a statistic, instead of Suroth concealing them.

The sul'dam don't know about it, Suroth didn't know it, Egeanin didn't know it.

It stretches credulity that it wouldn't have happened often enough to make it no big deal.

Edit: Linda at 13th Depository has quite a lot of info/ speculation on the subject.

[waffle]

It's very clear from the texts that sul'dam don't test positive as damane.

 

Maybe i´m not as smart as you are, but it doesn´t seem all that clear to me. :S

I mean, why else would they even test the suldam if the possibility of them testing positive for damane was impossible.

 

They would just shrug and write off Seta, Renna, Bethamin as a statistic, instead of Suroth concealing them.

The sul'dam don't know about it, Suroth didn't know it, Egeanin didn't know it.

It stretches credulity that it wouldn't have happened often enough to make it no big deal.

 

My thinking is that they hid it this time, because the collars worked on experienced sul´dam, who were already past the testing age which is supposed to winnow out all the damane. And this testing until 25 is supposed to be a 100% genuine foolproof golden strategy, right? Maybe something clicked somewhere. No definite theory, because they don´t know about learning vs sparking, but a little light in the darkness was turned on and a decision was made to cover it up.

 

I don´t see experienced sul´dam getting collared being an ordinary occurrence. So my credulity stays unstretched.

[Sharaman]

It's very clear from the texts that sul'dam don't test positive as damane.

 

Maybe i´m not as smart as you are, but it doesn´t seem all that clear to me. :S

I mean, why else would they even test the suldam if the possibility of them testing positive for damane was impossible.

 

They would just shrug and write off Seta, Renna, Bethamin as a statistic, instead of Suroth concealing them.

The sul'dam don't know about it, Suroth didn't know it, Egeanin didn't know it.

It stretches credulity that it wouldn't have happened often enough to make it no big deal.

 

My thinking is that they hid it this time, because the collars worked on experienced sul´dam, who were already past the testing age which is supposed to winnow out all the damane. And this testing until 25 is supposed to be a 100% genuine foolproof golden strategy, right? Maybe something clicked somewhere. No definite theory, because they don´t know about learning vs sparking, but a little light in the darkness was turned on and a decision was made to cover it up.

 

I don´t see experienced sul´dam getting collared being an ordinary occurrence. So my credulity stays unstretched.

 

With numbers of this order, it doesn't have to be an ordinary occurrence. One woman in 1,000 would still add up to a lot of women.

My problem is precisely that: If you test ~10,000 sul'dam each 12-13 times over a 12-13 year period, you should find that some sul'dam can be damane.

In that case, the entire society would not be horrified to discover that a woman who passed the test 13 times failed it in year 14.

The shock and horror can only be explained if it doesn't happen.

[Moon Sedai]

I think that initially, the Senchan royals knew that the Sul'dam could channel, but over the centuries, that has been muddled/forgotten.

Or, perhaps the knowledge is limited to the Empress/her immediate heir, which is why Tuon was not shocked to her core, as other Senchan who discover it are.

As often as Tuon appears to spend training Damane, it's possible she'd test positive.

Is she even 25 yet? I know being a daughter of the Empress does not shield one from being damane, because Tuon had a memory of losing sisters because they could channel.

 

 

[didymos]

In that case, the entire society would not be horrified to discover that a woman who passed the test 13 times failed it in year 14.

 

They would if she was "too old" to possibly be a stealth marath'damane, but since they don't ever test women that old...well, not a problem. Horror averted. You referenced Bethamin's POV: well, read it. She gives no indication that she wasn't genuinely worried about failing right up until she was "too old" to possibly channel. She doesn't say it was only for formality or something. So...yeah.

 

The shock and horror can only be explained if it doesn't happen.

 

IT DOESN"T. Any sul'dam who tested positive would be within the window for sparking (i.e. not yet 25), and therefore just a marath'damane who hadn't been caught because she hadn't spaked. They're aware of this: it's the entire reason why they test even sul'dam under 25 in the first place. Otherwise, why even bother?

[didymos]

Is she even 25 yet?

 

She was just a few months shy of 20 when traipsing about with Mat.

[Sharaman]

I think that initially, the Senchan royals knew that the Sul'dam could channel, but over the centuries, that has been muddled/forgotten.

Or, perhaps the knowledge is limited to the Empress/her immediate heir, which is why Tuon was not shocked to her core, as other Senchan who discover it are.

As often as Tuon appears to spend training Damane, it's possible she'd test positive.

Is she even 25 yet? I know being a daughter of the Empress does not shield one from being damane, because Tuon had a memory of losing sisters because they could channel.

Tuon is 19-plus. She didn't necessarily lose sisters because they could channel - she thought that royal children could be expunged from the line (for plotting and getting caught) as completely as women who channeled were removed from normal families.

She was allowed to test for the a'dam as suldam, by her mother. She didn't have to.

We don't know if royal children have to be tested for damane.

 

Let me try and explain where my credulity is being stretched.

Everyone on this thread pretty much agrees that the Seanchan testing system would identify some girls initially as sul'dam and then over the extended 12-13 year testing period, some of these sul'dams would get picked up as damane. This is also likely to be a staggered process - as in Pomeranian the sul'dam, passes the a'dam test 11 times, before becoming Pompom the damane on the 12th test. Meanwhile another sul'dam passes 9 times and fails on 10th test.

 

In that case, the Seanchan social coping mechanisms allow them to handle the prospect of some sul'dam passing random multiple tests with the a'dam followed by occasional failures.

Now, why would they be bothered to discover that there were some sul'dam who could pass more than a certain random number of times and then fail?

It would just be interesting additional statistical and medical data.

 

Since they are obviously bothered, one assumes there is something off.

[yoniy0]

Not so. Suppose an exponential distribution, which is to say the vast majority of Sparkers actually Spark before they hit 20, some others before their 21st year, and so on, with the density of Sparking decreasing as an exponential function. Then I would be fairly surprised to find a 26 year old Sparker that wasn't previously detected, but I will chalk that down to mathematical oddity. A 50 year old is so unlikely, that I would simply say it was impossible. Finding out that ALL 50 year old sul'dam would fail the test is STAGGERING. It points to a different mechanism being responsible to who can and cannot channel than the model we were previously using. Shocking, if channelers are dangerous beasts who MUST be collared, wouldn't you say?

[Sharaman]

Not so. Suppose an exponential distribution, which is to say the vast majority of Sparkers actually Spark before they hit 20, some others before their 21st year, and so on, with the density of Sparking decreasing as an exponential function. Then I would be fairly surprised to find a 26 year old Sparker that wasn't previously detected, but I will chalk that down to mathematical oddity. A 50 year old is so unlikely, that I would simply say it was impossible. Finding out that ALL 50 year old sul'dam would fail the test is STAGGERING. It points to a different mechanism being responsible to who can and cannot channel than the model we were previously using. Shocking, if channelers are dangerous beasts who MUST be collared, wouldn't you say?

 

I'm not disagreeing. As I've said earlier, several times, even if it is a very low percentage of sul'dams who get held after passing the test multiple times, it could still be a significant absolute number due to the sheer sample size.

Second, Bethamin & co are late 20s, early 30s. Not that much older.

So yes, one would normally imagine that it would be written off simply as the long tail of channeling ability distribution.

(Since the Seanchan don't know about non-sparking ability)

Some Seanchan doctors would perhaps say that they may need to extend the period of testing, recheck the ages of the women concerned, etc.

In some manual of the a'dam testing bureau, it would be noted that sometimes slightly older women also turned into damane.

 

But a minor mathematical oddity shouldn't bring down the Empire.

Since everybody who hears about it seems to believe it will bring down the Empire, it's not just considered a minor stats aberration.

 

That is where my belief gets stretched due to the inherent contradictions.

If the Seanchan testing system picks up women who pass the test multiple times before failing it, they should not be shocked and horrified (surprised maybe but not shocked and horrified) to find that in some cases, somewhat older women can be picked up after passing the test one more time than is normal.

So why are they shocked and horrified?

Is it because they never pick up sul'dam on the repeated tests?

As most people on this thread see, that's absurd.

In that case, being universally shocked /horrified is absurd since picking up mid-20s sul'dams is a known phenomenon.

Note also that the people who are shocked / horrified are people who would be knowledgeable about the whole thing.

 

Is everyone concerned, jumping to the (correct) conclusion on very little evidence that every sul'dam with more than a certain number of hours of practice is liable to be held by the a'dam?

If they are jumping to that conclusion, why didn't some bright party see it earlier because evidence would already be there in terms of mid-20s sul'dam testing positive? while few 25-year-old would be held by the a'dam, the majority (or overwhelming majority) of those women would be sul'dam

[yoniy0]

As I said before, the difference here is that EVERY sul'dam will eventually reach the state of damane-hood. That's it's the same skill-set which is required for both jobs.

If you don't mind me asking, where do we learn about Seta's and Bethamin's (and the other one's whose name I don't remember ATM) ages?

[Sharaman]

As I said before, the difference here is that EVERY sul'dam will eventually reach the state of damane-hood. That's it's the same skill-set which is required for both jobs.

If you don't mind me asking, where do we learn about Seta's and Bethamin's (and the other one's whose name I don't remember ATM) ages?

Ah but how do they know that?

If it's a intuitive leap, then many others in Seanchan should already have made it.

Edit: (because a very high proportion, or almost all, of the 25-year-olds being picked up as damane would be sul'dams. By then, only the very late sparkers would be left in the general population and the rest of the damane would be sul'dams who had done enough hours to trigger the a'dam.)

Otherwise, it is a longtail, which fits a known situation: some suldams turn damane before/at 25, a few turn damane slightly later.

That's no big deal.

 

IIRC TGH has age-related descriptions and then Mat's PoVs in CoT has descriptions.

I think at some time it's also mentioned that Bethamin and Egeanin have both served 10 years, which would be a fit for late 20s, early 30s.

I am fairly sure about the approx ages. They are certainly not in their 50s.

But I don't have either of the books at this moment.

(They also feature in TSR, and in WH,KoD, TGS,ToM, so it would be a hunt)

[waffle]

As I said before, the difference here is that EVERY sul'dam will eventually reach the state of damane-hood. That's it's the same skill-set which is required for both jobs.

If you don't mind me asking, where do we learn about Seta's and Bethamin's (and the other one's whose name I don't remember ATM) ages?

Ah but how do they know that?

If it's a intuitive leap, then many others in Seanchan should already have made it.

 

They lack the knowledge that channeling can be learned. In their mind it was binary. Sparker or not a sparker. No grey area for "she is able to learn"

 

 

just thought of something. Are sul´dam the only ones who sometimes test positive after years of testing? If yes, then yeah, it does seem weird it hasn´t been connected before.

[Nooska]

As I said before, the difference here is that EVERY sul'dam will eventually reach the state of damane-hood. That's it's the same skill-set which is required for both jobs.

If you don't mind me asking, where do we learn about Seta's and Bethamin's (and the other one's whose name I don't remember ATM) ages?

Ah but how do they know that?

If it's a intuitive leap, then many others in Seanchan should already have made it.

 

They lack the knowledge that channeling can be learned. In their mind it was binary. Sparker or not a sparker. No grey area for "she is able to learn"

 

 

just thought of something. Are sul´dam the only ones who sometimes test positive after years of testing? If yes, then yeah, it does seem weird it hasn´t been connected before.

 

Well, they only test sul'dam for the same period everyone else gets tested - the maximum age they have ever found an unchained marath'damane, so no, everyone can fail their test up until the test stopping.

If they found a marath'damane that was older (and hadn't somehoe escaped testing) I am sure they would test everyone up until the new age. They don't seem to be non-adaptive, but they do not believe that Sul'dam ability has anything to do with the OP (anymore), thus no link. Its a simple logic test that the seanchan have passed; All Damane must be leashed, and some Sul'dam are Damane. Nothing in that data set says there is any correlation, we have an additional piece of information that the seanchan don't have (or didn't have) - All Damane can be Sul'dam. (And we know how it works with channleing, sparking and ability to learn, they don't)

[Sharaman]

As I said before, the difference here is that EVERY sul'dam will eventually reach the state of damane-hood. That's it's the same skill-set which is required for both jobs.

If you don't mind me asking, where do we learn about Seta's and Bethamin's (and the other one's whose name I don't remember ATM) ages?

Ah but how do they know that?

If it's a intuitive leap, then many others in Seanchan should already have made it.

 

They lack the knowledge that channeling can be learned. In their mind it was binary. Sparker or not a sparker. No grey area for "she is able to learn"

 

 

just thought of something. Are sul´dam the only ones who sometimes test positive after years of testing? If yes, then yeah, it does seem weird it hasn´t been connected before.

 

Well, they only test sul'dam for the same period everyone else gets tested - the maximum age they have ever found an unchained marath'damane, so no, everyone can fail their test up until the test stopping.

If they found a marath'damane that was older (and hadn't somehoe escaped testing) I am sure they would test everyone up until the new age. They don't seem to be non-adaptive, but they do not believe that Sul'dam ability has anything to do with the OP (anymore), thus no link. Its a simple logic test that the seanchan have passed; All Damane must be leashed, and some Sul'dam are Damane. Nothing in that data set says there is any correlation, we have an additional piece of information that the seanchan don't have (or didn't have) - All Damane can be Sul'dam. (And we know how it works with channleing, sparking and ability to learn, they don't)

 

From what we know of sparkers, it's extremely likely that the older marath'damane will be mostly, or overwhelmingly from the sul'dams rather than general population. This is one of the reasons why I'd expect the connect to have been made earlier.

The spark can manifest as early as 10-11 (one of the AoL Aiel in TSR and Alivia was 12). In women it usually manifests fairly early.

According to RJ "Women usually slow at twenty, sometimes a little earlier, but usually around there. Men wouldn't slow until twenty-five, usually closer to thirty. He claims that they could go past thirty, but that probably depends on how early they start and how much they channel." (TPoD)

 

If the Seanchan test till 25, they'd get a pattern where there were very few sparkers testing out as damane after 22-23. Whoever tested out after that age, would be sul'dam who had done the man-hours.

[didymos]

OK, there's an assumption here that we've all accepted but which we haven't justified: that women really do spark up until age 25. It's not a bad assumption, but we don't actually know that it's true. I mean, can you think of an actual example? Even one over twenty? I can't. We simply assume that's why they chose that max testing age. Again: makes sense...not proven.

 

So, question: who came up with this age and when? Could they have had other reasons like, say, concealing exactly the problem we've been occupied with? I.e., the max sparking age is actually younger, and they set up the whole sul'dam training system to avoid messy anomalies like a bunch of them suddenly failing their yearly damane check-up.

 

Given that the guy who founded the Seanchan Empire got the a'dam from an Aes Sedai (well, she called herself one anyway) and grew up in a world where they were a very visible part of life (and for the first seven years of his life, they still held positions in his father's empire, so he likely spent a fair amount of time around them), he had to be aware of the learner/sparker distinction. At that time, after making it to Seanchan and beginning what would be called the Consolidation, I imagine many were in his immediate circle and family (and probably plenty of native Seanchan as well). They also pretty much had to know exactly what these new "sul'dam" really were: channelers.

 

Point being, a lot of time and effort had to go into keeping this knowledge close and eventually stamping it out. For instance, I wonder if the once-common practice of removing damane tongues, or even hands had something to do with it (can't talk or write, can't blab about sul'dam being potential channelers). I'm also wondering about this:

 

Many had thought it odd when Tuon tested for sul'dam on reaching adulthood, though none could gainsay her, then.

 

Is waiting until adulthood standard practice, or just unique to people like Tuon who aren't allowed to become sul'dam due to their rank? I'm thinking it's standard practice and Tuon was just exempt due to her station, since there's no shortage of sul'dam, but then when is adulthood in Seanchan? It's not the true-name day: she was six when that happened. I know Seanchan can be odd, but declaring six-year-olds to be legal adults is really pushing it.

 

So, what then? Sixteen? Eighteen? Unfortunately, there's not enough information to figure it out, but it could significantly reduce the "failing sul'dam" numbers, (and especially if the training and recruitment quotas are designed to avoid the "too many leash-hours too early" issue). Again, like sparkers, can you actually think of an example of a sul'dam who failed the yearly-testing? At any age? Again: I can't. We just assume there "must" have been some at some point or another.

 

Obviously, this is speculation, but given the history here and the fact that the entire point of the institution is to ensure there are no active channelers uncollared (which sul'dam have the potential to be, and thus are people who can't be allowed to know that), I think it's worth some consideration.

 

Edit: OK, forgot about this. In Seanchan, adulthood is sixteen (WH, Chapter 14).

[Sharaman]

OK, there's an assumption here that we've all accepted but which we haven't justified: that women really do spark up until age 25. It's not a bad assumption, but we don't actually know that it's true. I mean, can you think of an actual example? Even one over twenty? I can't. We simply assume that's why they chose that max testing age. Again: makes sense...not proven.

 

So, question: who came up with this age and when? Could they have had other reasons like, say, concealing exactly the problem we've been occupied with? I.e., the max sparking age is actually younger, and they set up the whole sul'dam training system to avoid messy anomalies like a bunch of them suddenly failing their yearly damane check-up.

 

Given that the guy who founded the Seanchan Empire got the a'dam from an Aes Sedai (well, she called herself one anyway) and grew up in a world where they were a very visible part of life (and for the first seven years of his life, they still held positions in his father's empire, so he likely spent a fair amount of time around them), he had to be aware of the learner/sparker distinction. At that time, after making it to Seanchan and beginning what would be called the Consolidation, I imagine many were in his immediate circle and family (and probably plenty of native Seanchan as well). They also pretty much had to know exactly what these new "sul'dam" really were: channelers.

 

Point being, a lot of time and effort had to go into keeping this knowledge close and eventually stamping it out. For instance, I wonder if the once-common practice of removing damane tongues, or even hands had something to do with it (can't talk or write, can't blab about sul'dam being potential channelers). I'm also wondering about this:

 

Many had thought it odd when Tuon tested for sul'dam on reaching adulthood, though none could gainsay her, then.

 

Is waiting until adulthood standard practice, or just unique to people like Tuon who aren't allowed to become sul'dam due to their rank? I'm thinking it's standard practice and Tuon was just exempt due to her station, since there's no shortage of sul'dam, but then when is adulthood in Seanchan? It's not the true-name day: she was six when that happened. I know Seanchan can be odd, but declaring six-year-olds to be legal adults is really pushing it.

 

So, what then? Sixteen? Eighteen? Unfortunately, there's not enough information to figure it out, but it could significantly reduce the "failing sul'dam" numbers, (and especially if the training and recruitment quotas are designed to avoid the "too many leash-hours too early" issue). Again, like sparkers, can you actually think of an example of a sul'dam who failed the yearly-testing? At any age? Again: I can't. We just assume there "must" have been some at some point or another.

 

Obviously, this is speculation, but given the history here and the fact that the entire point of the institution is to ensure there are no active channelers uncollared (which sul'dam have the potential to be, and thus are people who can't be allowed to know that), I think it's worth some consideration.

 

Edit: OK, forgot about this. In Seanchan, adulthood is sixteen (WH, Chapter 14).

 

Bethamin's PoV in WH (I think) makes it clear that on the feast-days when A'dam testing is done, women are tested both ways. Those held by the collar are taken away. Those not held by the collar are then tested to see if they can be suldam. Since we have one example at least, of Alivia, a 400-year-old who was collared at age 12, the tests start fairly early and this has been traditional for a long time.

We have an AOL Aiel channeler POV from Rand's time in the Rhuidean column (TSR) which tells us the guy (it was a boy) had tested positive for channeling ability at 10 (!) so it's possible the Seanchan start that early as well.

(Of course, the AoL would have had more sophisticated means of testing).

Obviously in the initial Deane period, everyone in the upper echelons of Luthair's army at least and every AS in Seanchan would have known suldam can be damane and vice versa.

Obviously the knowledge was suppressed and lost.

So far so good. Civil war, turmoil, no early written records and a tacit agreement to conceal it is enough.

 

But this comes back to why I find this whole thing stretching credulity.

We know the Seanchan are shocked when suldam are held and believe this will undermine their whole society.

We know the testing methods.

We know they're methodical and meticulous and every family in Seanchan is in the census register with damane being struck off family lists.

 

Everyone here agrees that given the testing methods and the huge sample sizes, some suldam should always be testing positive as damane.

In that case, why would they be shocked to find there was the odd outlier suldam who passed tests until 25 and then succumbed later?

It's useful statistical info but not shocking.

If you think of channeling as a disease, as the Seanchan do, their reaction should be "Ok, some suldam do become damane by 25, and there's the odd case of the suldam becoming damane later". Not the horror they express.

 

However, clearly they are shocked. hence there's something wrong.

 

Alternatively, given what we know of sparkers, the seanchan should find that a very high proportion of the 24-25 year olds who get caught by the a'dam are actually suldam. In that case, somebody in the a'dam testing bureaucracy would have made the connect, given that they keep meticulous records. So it wouldn;t be shocking - it would be an inconvenient "need to know" truth. Except that High Lady Suroth, Egeanin (senior low-blood officer who owns personal damane) and sul'dam (who would be at the cutting edge of the whole testing process) DID not know.

So that doesn't happen.

 

Therein lies the paradox, which I've been trying to articulate.

No, we've never seen a Pov/ reference to a Suldam who was caught by the a'dam in normal testing.

That is the point I was making all through this thread.

[Bob T Dwarf]

The most likely answer is that suldam being able to channel is an inconvenience to the Empire, thus, when it happens, all of those aware of the fact are taken away and "disappeared" by the Seanchan version of the Gestapo.

[Sharaman]

The most likely answer is that suldam being able to channel is an inconvenience to the Empire, thus, when it happens, all of those aware of the fact are taken away and "disappeared" by the Seanchan version of the Gestapo.

The numbers are too large and too dispersed.

The Senachan gestapo would be controlled by the Seekers, High Blood, etc.

None of them know.

[Bob T Dwarf]

The most likely answer is that suldam being able to channel is an inconvenience to the Empire, thus, when it happens, all of those aware of the fact are taken away and "disappeared" by the Seanchan version of the Gestapo.

The numbers are too large and too dispersed.

The Senachan gestapo would be controlled by the Seekers, High Blood, etc.

None of them know.

 

There's knowing and then there's "knowing." None of them can afford to "know" about anything so officially proscribed. If they "knew" the Seekers would take them away, too.

 

Although, given how gratuitously stupid all the characters are about things they should know and do, it's entirely possible that none of the Seanchan have ever reached such an elementary conclusion.

[Sharaman]

The most likely answer is that suldam being able to channel is an inconvenience to the Empire, thus, when it happens, all of those aware of the fact are taken away and "disappeared" by the Seanchan version of the Gestapo.

The numbers are too large and too dispersed.

The Senachan gestapo would be controlled by the Seekers, High Blood, etc.

None of them know.

 

There's knowing and then there's "knowing." None of them can afford to "know" about anything so officially proscribed. If they "knew" the Seekers would take them away, too.

 

Although, given how gratuitously stupid all the characters are about things they should know and do, it's entirely possible that none of the Seanchan have ever reached such an elementary conclusion.

Nobody short of Tuon could "take Suroth away" and she didn't know.

Tuon may not have known either - that's not clear.

[Val Mickey]

To summarise Sharaman's argument :

 

99.999% of sparkers are caught before (say) 20 years of age. 1 in 100,000 sparkers are caught between 20-25 years, but since Seanchan is a huge land, this will occur in many of the large cities to the tune of maybe 1 every year, so it's a rare event, but not one that flies under the radar. Therefore the Seanchan shouldn't be surprised that some sul'dam are actually marath.

 

And if there is a cover-up, that wouldn't stop rumours.

 

Am I right, Sharaman?

 

An average Seanchan would think:

So, a 45 year old sul'dam (I'm guessing about Seta) who is actually a marath is rare. Sweep under the rug. But two 45 year olds? That never happens.

 

How many of these are marath?

 

What, wait, all of them are marath? faints

 

 

What I find most incongruous is that the Seanchan trust sul'dam. The sul'dam "guard" the damane, but who "guards" the sul'dam? What if tomorrow the der'der'suldam decides to become the Empress?

[Sharaman]

To summarise Sharaman's argument :

 

99.999% of sparkers are caught before (say) 20 years of age. 1 in 100,000 sparkers are caught between 20-25 years, but since Seanchan is a huge land, this will occur in many of the large cities to the tune of maybe 1 every year, so it's a rare event, but not one that flies under the radar. Therefore the Seanchan shouldn't be surprised that some sul'dam are actually marath.

 

And if there is a cover-up, that wouldn't stop rumours.

 

Am I right, Sharaman?

 

An average Seanchan would think:

So, a 45 year old sul'dam (I'm guessing about Seta) who is actually a marath is rare. Sweep under the rug. But two 45 year olds? That never happens.

 

How many of these are marath?

 

What, wait, all of them are marath? faints

 

 

What I find most incongruous is that the Seanchan trust sul'dam. The sul'dam "guard" the damane, but who "guards" the sul'dam? What if tomorrow the der'der'suldam decides to become the Empress?

Making changes as appropriate to above.

 

Most sparkers are caught by around age 22-23. A few sparkers are caught between 23-25. We're talking large samples, yes. My age guesses are based on RJ's statement that most women spark around 20 etc- (see above.)

Between 23-25, the proportion of suldams (meaning women who have tested positive earlier for suldam) to the total number of women held by the a'dam would rise.

Also perhaps, the absolute number of sul'dams being caught would rise.

This is because normal sparkers would have been mostly caught when they were younger. Some sul'dams may be late sparkers. Some would have done enough work on the other end of the a'dam to go over the edge.

Again due to large samples, this would be a noticeable number.

Therefore the Seanchan shouldn't be surprised that some sul'dam are actually damane.

 

Indeed!

 

And some bean-counter in the a'dam testing/ census taking bureau would have noted the trend as well. It would be known in the upper echelons of the Court, the army/navy, and of course, among sul'dams who had seen the sul'dam Pomerania become Pom-Pom the damane.

 

An average Seanchan would think:

 

We are not talking about average Seanchan. We are talking about sul'dams (who would hear/see/ know the scuttlebutt), the High Lady Suroth, the Low-High Lady Egeanin and the DotNM, who is herself an accomplished sul'dam. They all know more than the average Seanchan

 

 

So, a 45 year old sul'dam (I'm guessing about Seta) who is actually a marath is rare.

 

The three of them are late 20s, early 30s. They are not 45.

 

Hence it should be surprising but not shocking. They could be long-tail.

However, it is shocking.

 

How many of these are marath?

What, wait, all of them are marath? faints

 

You see that "it cannot be!" reaction should not occur if you know 25-year-old sul'dam sometimes become damane, you would be perturbed but not fainting to discover a 28-year-old sul'dam might.

The reaction we see is too extreme.

[Nooska]

Having thought about ir for a day, I think we are ignoring something.

 

We have touched on the "how" of the sul'dam being forgotten as learners, but if there are no teachers the learners are safe enough. Tuon actually said it very concisely - It didn't matter whether she could learn, what mattered was that she chose not to.

So in the highest reaches it may be known or recorded, and simply ignored - if conventional wisdom is that you canonly be held by the adam if you are a damane (and thus dangerous because you cannot) then the shock (to the higher ups) is that a sul'dam will become damane, and thus dangerous.

 

The "Higher ups" in this theory are the imperial familiy and very few trusted da'covale (the ones who maintain the imperial records I'd say) - we saw one of those when Perrin used his letter from Suroth, and I have no problem accepting that they could know and keep it secret.

 

The important point is that the sul'dam being able to learn MUST have been known 1000 years ago, so the information was either hidden or ignored - The problems we are encountering in this debate seem to be most easily resolved by the information being ignored because without teachers they are safe (its an unarmed bomb, compared to a live bomb with a safety mechanism attached (the a'dam).

[Sharaman]

Having thought about ir for a day, I think we are ignoring something.

 

We have touched on the "how" of the sul'dam being forgotten as learners, but if there are no teachers the learners are safe enough. Tuon actually said it very concisely - It didn't matter whether she could learn, what mattered was that she chose not to.

So in the highest reaches it may be known or recorded, and simply ignored - if conventional wisdom is that you canonly be held by the adam if you are a damane (and thus dangerous because you cannot) then the shock (to the higher ups) is that a sul'dam will become damane, and thus dangerous.

 

The lack of teachers angle is interesting.

The hole is that, given the meticulous testing methods, there would always be some sul'dam, who became revealed as damane.

So there should not be any shock at the reveal.

 

 

The "Higher ups" in this theory are the imperial familiy and very few trusted da'covale (the ones who maintain the imperial records I'd say) - we saw one of those when Perrin used his letter from Suroth, and I have no problem accepting that they could know and keep it secret.

 

The important point is that the sul'dam being able to learn MUST have been known 1000 years ago, so the information was either hidden or ignored - The problems we are encountering in this debate seem to be most easily resolved by the information being ignored because without teachers they are safe (its an unarmed bomb, compared to a live bomb with a safety mechanism attached (the a'dam).

 

Yes, obviously the knowledge was suppressed/ lost. Again, in the early chaotic years, this would be easy and indeed, your theory that learners could be safely ignored if there was nobody to teach them could work for a while. Until such time as it was discovered that a significant number of suldam actually did become damane.