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DRAGONMOUNT

A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

Nooska

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  1. In fact, taking into account that the wheel has spun an infinite number of times, and the DO has still not won, the safest bet is that he will never win, and indeed is prevented from winning by some force, exactly because the probability of him not winning at least once in an infinite number of attempts approaches zero.
  2. Not really.Moridin thought that since the DO only needed to win once and the Wheel repeated itself ad infinum, his victory was guaranteed.If you take into account that only his thoughts seem to be the same while the other constant's (the champion of light's) are shifting it's even more of a safe bet to bet on him. That is false, and is exactly the gamblers fallacy. Any event with a non cumulative, non zero chance of occuring has chance of occuring that approaches 1 as the number of possible occurences approaches infinity. However, there is no point where the even will occur. Playing on red each and every spin of the roulette wheel should have you 0 money out of pocket after an even number of spins on average, and ahead or behind by 1 on an odd number of spins, on average, because of the 50% chance (ignoring green 0). However, you can bet on red all day, the rest of your life actually, and you will never be guaranteed 1 win. Not getting the win becomes increasingly improbable, but remains quite possible. Improbable possibilities are harder to grasp than probable impossibilities, its a trait of the human mind.
  3. I tend to agree with you but I guess we'll see. They could be decendants (sp?) of some of the Aiel men that could channel that got abducted in the Blight and inter-bred with other races. This would explain the twisted Aiel attributes with the dark eyes. By definition that would also make them not-Aiel ;-) My biggest gripe with the constat referencing of the Red-Veils as Aieal is that it is clearly retracted by the character who mistakenly identifies them as such.
  4. Thats not Twain, thats Descartes or Gorgias - the idea presented is basic metaphysical solipsism
  5. Rand has the same thinking in VoG, and reaches the obvious conclusion - with free will there is always a chance to change the outcome. If Rand the village boy could see it, maybe Moridin can too, even though he is a somber pessimist. No, see, it has nothing to do with optimism or pessimism or intelligence. Moridin fell for the Gamblers Fallacy.
  6. Thats not DEM, thats Truth in Fiction - the foreign virus being deadly has happened several times in history with reckless exploration. (And its not "Hand of God" but "God from (a) machine" - Hand of god would be "Deii Manua" or something to that effect.)
  7. Except that the blue happens before Thom gets to the fade, and he isn't throwing his knives, so no, thats not the explanation whitebridge and the blue flashes
  8. lots of things happen in the books for the first time. we see a dreamspike for the first time in ToM. Avi changes the te'rangreal in Rhuidean for the first time. we see weird red veiled Aiel for the first time. and again, I don't have the answers. but I can tell an absolutely unrealistic theory when I see one. No we don't (just the bolded part)
  9. I agree that it is not Avi's subconsciousness at play in the specific, thats just too new literarily, but; You know, the overactive "imagination" of people with psychiatric disorders don't make the subconscious do stuff it doesn't normally do, it just breaks down the barriers of real and not real. A paranoid schizophrenic hearing voices or seeing non-existant people doesn't have a malfunctioning imagination or subconscious, but a malfunctioning reality sense - the brain cannot distinguish and because it cannot distinguish it cannot stop the hallucinations from playing out. Normal people can imaging having a conversation (make believe, as children do all the time), but because of the functioning reality sense it can be stopped at any time and doesn't influence us strongly because we know it to be imagination. So psychiatric disorders (primarily schizophrenia, when talking about hallucinations and reality sense problems) don't make the subconscious do anything it doesn't already, you just can't tell the difference between made up and real.
  10. That is absolute nonsense. Regardless of the pros or cons of the Seanchan culture, they have been shown to be an honorable people throughout the series - it isn't relevant that they have ideals and values that are very foreign to most modern people - and they are shown in the books (teh vision, the veracity of which is confirmed by itself as it is self perpetuating, regardless of whether it is a true vision, prophecy or warning) as they did not initiate any aggression whatsoever untill the other nations broke the peace through Aiel subterfuge. Irrespective of how reprehensible their ways seem to any of us, there is no basis for assuming or postulating that they would eventually break the accord they agreed to, quite the contrary. Keeping Aiel as damane, as slaves, constitutes as grounds for war in my book. And while it isn't the only reason for the start of the war, it's a major one. That isn't what I was commenting on. In Avi's visions the Aiel wer enot part of the Dragon's Peace and were warring or skirmishing with the Seanchan on and off, but the seanchan kept the peace with everyone else. Lord D claims the seanchan "need to change a great deal for any lasting peace" - the way the Seanchan are right now are good for lasting peace according to what we have seen in the books. The speculations of posters (biased towards emancipatory and modern views) are irrelevant to whether a lasting peace can be kept with the Seanchan before a "great deal of change". In the books, it is quite clear that an agreement made is kept. If Tuon negotiates an indefinite peace with Rand on behalf of the other randland countries, nothing from the books supprt that the Seanchan (under Tuon or a successor) will break that without casus belli - which in Avi's visions arose from Andor entering the war, thus breaking the treaty, and other nations being drawn in after that. Anyway, the keeping of Damane or other kinds of slaves, regardless of origin, is not "cause for war" if a peace is negotiated (and the terms kept) - regardless of how emancipation has worked in the real world - and claiming it to be "cause of war" in the fictional world because it is morally reprehensible for some posters (I am not inclined to include all posters and readers as I have absolutely nothing to base such a generalization on, regardless of the obvious consensus) borders on willful stupidity - realworld realities have no bearing on in-universe reasoning*, and if a poster claims thus, there is a serious need of seperation from the material (like chanting "it is just a book" ;-) ). *Excepting areas where the understanding of the in-universe functionings are presented in a way that requires us to use real world knowledge - like "what is a horse" or "what does this title mean" (where said title has a realworld counterpart, like "Queen") - i.e. anything that isn't explained in-universe because we as readers are assumed to be familiar with the concept. The Seanchan property workings do not fall under this eception as we have no real world corrolary that we can immediately draw upon - and I will not start listing and discussing HOW it works, that has been covered quite extensively, with lots of indignation as well in other threads.
  11. Those are not the channelers you ar elooking for. Also, they are not Aiel.
  12. That is absolute nonsense. Regardless of the pros or cons of the Seanchan culture, they have been shown to be an honorable people throughout the series - it isn't relevant that they have ideals and values that are very foreign to most modern people - and they are shown in the books (teh vision, the veracity of which is confirmed by itself as it is self perpetuating, regardless of whether it is a true vision, prophecy or warning) as they did not initiate any aggression whatsoever untill the other nations broke the peace through Aiel subterfuge. Irrespective of how reprehensible their ways seem to any of us, there is no basis for assuming or postulating that they would eventually break the accord they agreed to, quite the contrary.
  13. Having just finished another thread where this is discussed; Daeath has most certainly known Perrin - He lost his entire family. Death has also known Mat, who has been dead (and is now - erhh - un-dead), who has lost at least 1 loved one (Tylin, can't remember more very close people for Mat off the top of my head). Rand has not known Death personally (only as a commander), apart from having been dead for ~3000 years, been reborn and having killed his entire family before killing himself 3.000 years ago (integrated Rand and LTT are the same person, so clearly what happened to LTT can, for prophetic concerns at least, be said to have happened to Rand) I'm not sure who I think the broken wolf is, but I am heavily leaning toward Perrin from pure intuitive obviousness - I do not believe he will die however, I ampretty sure that that is the part of the prophecy that will be facepalmed over at the resolution.
  14. Actually, being made Lord (of any sort) does not require an oath of fealty in any way, shape or form. The making of a lordship is historically done by decree of the monarch (prince, duke, king or emperor - by regional variation or genderized). A decree of this sort would usually be given together with teh searing of an oath of some sort, but one does not require the other. Elayne has made T2R a lordship under Rand Al'Thor, the Dragon Reborn, as his Seat in Andor. Rand won't need to swear an oath or accept it for it to be thus, it is thus by the decree. The taking of oath is required only when the person made lord is done so by induction into an order - where the oath is required for induction to the order, and the lordship comes from being a member of said order - a lordship here is, for example, a knighthood (we have seen no distinguishing between rank in titulation - excepting Tear where there are Lords and High Lords). Another induction to an order that grants a lordship (though not a landed lordship) is the Children of the Light's Lords Captain rank. The swearing of fealty is not an issue in what obligations and rights are conferred by the lordship made - these are a seperate issue, but you do not need to accept a title to be a lord (case in point, Prince of the Ravens and Mats "you wouldn't dare" comment to Elayne about making him a lord)
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