Egwene's Strategic Options

[Lambada]

On the advantage of linking.

While damane cannot link, i'm pretty sure the Asha'men could compel sisters they have bonded 'with the extra bit' to link with them to help form circles. The question then becomes, given the restrictions on circle sizes, how many sisters do they have, and what is the largest circle they could form?

[Entretamis]

for the exception of 2 men and 1 woman, and 2 men and 2 women, a circle always needs at least one more female than male. I read something of circle of 72 or something, but honestly i dont know if there is even a limit of circle size.

[Val Mickey]

The damane would be useless if they were to face full circles of channelers, however. This negates the damane advantage for the Ever Victorious Army, and the advantage would go to Rand with Asha'man, or Mat and the Band, or so on.

 

Not necessarily. It would be like a 'strength vs. agility' match. A circle loses the initiative of the other members, and enough damane might just overwhelm it.

[Random Man]

for the exception of 2 men and 1 woman, and 2 men and 2 women, a circle always needs at least one more female than male. I read something of circle of 72 or something, but honestly i dont know if there is even a limit of circle size.

 

The upper limit for a circle is 72 according to RJ (the 3rd Agers don't know this) and (not taking into account individual strengths and skills) the best ratio would be 37 women to 35 men. Either a man or a woman could lead this circle. Since there are 51 bonded Aes Sedai, the Asha'man have more than enough to make a full circle of 72 using bonded Aes Sedai -- of course, we don't know how many of those Asha'man are on which side of the divide between Rand's faithful and Taim's cronies.

 

The damane would be useless if they were to face full circles of channelers, however. This negates the damane advantage for the Ever Victorious Army, and the advantage would go to Rand with Asha'man, or Mat and the Band, or so on.

 

Not necessarily. It would be like a 'strength vs. agility' match. A circle loses the initiative of the other members, and enough damane might just overwhelm it.

I suppose if you had inexperienced and clumsy channelers leading the circles instead of passing control to a more experienced member, that might be true. If I were to race my 8-year-old and he had a Camaro and I had a Pinto, I'd win. If I were to race anyone who had any idea of how to drive, though, I'd probably lose. Even if you had a group of 13 clumsy novices together, though, individual damane wouldn't be able to shield them, and they'd be able to shield any of the damane (provided they know how to do it). The rebels had their system worked out pretty well where they could quickly form full circles and pass control to the most experienced channelers.

[AuldGoldBeard]

If Egwene had half a brain, she would have put together a bunch of circles and given chase to the Seanchan and destroyed their raiding party before it ever got back to Ebou Dar instead of crying about how tired and hurt everyone was after the raid.  It was necessary for plot purposes so the Seanchan could get Traveling and ambush Rand (second time Perrin will have to be there for him), but it shows a major lack of initiative.  The Salidar AS did nothing the night before and could have done the majority of the scouting and fighting.

 

If Egwene couldn't/wouldn't even do that, she's not going to start a full-fledged war.

[Lambada]

If Egwene had half a brain, she would have put together a bunch of circles and given chase to the Seanchan and destroyed their raiding party before it ever got back to Ebou Dar instead of crying about how tired and hurt everyone was after the raid.  It was necessary for plot purposes so the Seanchan could get Traveling and ambush Rand (second time Perrin will have to be there for him), but it shows a major lack of initiative.  The Salidar AS did nothing the night before and could have done the majority of the scouting and fighting.

 

If Egwene couldn't/wouldn't even do that, she's not going to start a full-fledged war.

Egwene was exhausted after the raid, and thought for a while what was happening was a dream of some kind. Add to that the fact that she wasn't in the Tower once the raid was over and she wouldn't be able to do much of anything.

How Aes Sedai, even with Traveling, are meant to keep pace with the raken / to'raken well enough to send some decent attacks is another question. Not to mention that that would certainly break the oaths as it would not be defending.

 

While the Salidar lot escaped unharmed, given how tenuous Egwene's authority had become with them and her exhaustion, she really was not in any kind of state to order the Hall about (even if she could somehow claim it was related to the war declared against Elaida), and if she couldn't claim it was Elaida related (thus forcing them to follow it) I doubt the Hall would have given her much time when they saw how emotionally frazzled she was.

[AuldGoldBeard]

None of those objections stand up.

 

Time: Egwene was elected Amyrlin within 24 hours of the raid.  That's more than enough time to launch a counter-attack.  According to Cooper's timeline, it took the Seanchan forces seven days to reach the Tower.  She could have waited two whole days and still caught up in plenty of time.

 

Keeping pace: It took the to'raken seven days to cover the distance.  It takes an Aes Sedai 7 seconds to travel to Ebou Dar.  Keeping up wouldn't be a problem, and even if it were, they could still inflict a lot of damage on the raiding party before they got away.

 

Oaths: Pretty sure the Seanchan would take care of that problem pretty quickly by sending fire and lightning down on as soon as the AS popped out of a Gateway.  At worst, they could justify it by trying to save other sisters' (the captives') lives.

 

Egwene's state: She wasn't too "emotionally frazzled" or exhausted to order an all-out attack against the Tower the next day.  Attacking maybe thirty sul'dam left alive and fifty to-raken is a walk in the park against five hundred Aes Sedai and a hundred thousand soldiers duking it out.

 

 

The only reason a counter-attack wasn't launched was because of plot purposes: the Seanchan need Traveling so they can attack/capture Rand in the next book.

[Lambada]

None of those objections stand up.

 

Time: Egwene was elected Amyrlin within 24 hours of the raid.  That's more than enough time to launch a counter-attack.  According to Cooper's timeline, it took the Seanchan forces seven days to reach the Tower.  She could have waited two whole days and still caught up in plenty of time.

And how was she to know the route the raken were taking? They could have gone south-west, down to Ebou Dar. Or gone West first to get straight into Seanchan controlled lands then South following the coast. Given 24 hours that is a huge radius of places to search.

Keeping pace: It took the to'raken seven days to cover the distance.  It takes an Aes Sedai 7 seconds to travel to Ebou Dar.  Keeping up wouldn't be a problem, and even if it were, they could still inflict a lot of damage on the raiding party before they got away.

Gateways are only useful if you are going short enough distances, or else know the area well enough. Plus it would ensure that any party that got away would know the weave for Traveling as the damane would be able to see it. The best case (killing all of the parties) is very slim anyway as to'raken and raken were leaving while the attack was still going on. Not to mention that they weren't in a single group - Suffa didn't see any other raken or to'raken near her's.

Oaths: Pretty sure the Seanchan would take care of that problem pretty quickly by sending fire and lightning down on as soon as the AS popped out of a Gateway.  At worst, they could justify it by trying to save other sisters' (the captives') lives.

I doubt that the damane would have reacted on sight - they were a long way up, so unless one happened to be looking down, watching for weaves,m I doubt they would feel the weaves or the chanellers. Thus the Aes Sedai would have to attack first.

In your worst case, that is how Egwene justified it to the Aes Sedai she saved at the time, but I think she would have had trouble convincing it to the entire group of Salidar initially.

If she did it when she was doing the re-swearing then it becomes a question of logistics. She has just sworn on the Oath Rod, and now knows that sister's in the Hall are black. This necessitates getting rid of them immediately (not to mention this was part of how she solidified her hold on the Hall). Once they were done, she would have to do it to the rest of the camp as well (as she did - each time it becomes harder for them to find where the raken are as I mentioned above).

In addition as Bryne said, this was prime time to attack the Tower. If they went after the Seanchan, it gives the Tower time to gather back together and heal without Egwene's help.

Also Egwene only has the authority to control the war against Elaida. The Hall could have full rights to deny her request to send Aes Sedai after the Seanchan.

Egwene's state: She wasn't too "emotionally frazzled" or exhausted to order an all-out attack against the Tower the next day.  Attacking maybe thirty sul'dam left alive and fifty to-raken is a walk in the park against five hundred Aes Sedai and a hundred thousand soldiers duking it out.

Reasons I've laid out above show why it would not be a walk in the Park. Also, with my emotionally frazzled, I thought you were considering doing this immediately, rather than simultaneously with the BA purge - but I have adapted the reasons that need adapting with regard to this.

The only reason a counter-attack wasn't launched was because of plot purposes: the Seanchan need Traveling so they can attack/capture Rand in the next book.

Yes, it certainly does advance the plot, but I still don't think it was the only reason. [Though I don't think they will capture Rand. Attack him yes, but I doubt capture him. That is a different Thread though.]

 

Ahh, differences of opinion. Always the mark of a good book I find.

[farthammer]

Egwene only knows a tiny fraction of what's going on, compared to actually reading the book and seeing everything from multiple POV's.  We point and laugh at how retarded Elaida was to send a bunch of sisters to the Black Tower, but as far as Egwene knows she'd be making the same mistake chasing after the Seanchan raid.  She doesn't even know if more are already on the way or not.

[Charlz Guybon]

 

 

The upper limit for a circle is 72 according to RJ (the 3rd Agers don't know this) and (not taking into account individual strengths and skills) the best ratio would be 37 women to 35 men. Either a man or a woman could lead this circle. Since there are 51 bonded Aes Sedai, the Asha'man have more than enough to make a full circle of 72 using bonded Aes Sedai -- of course, we don't know how many of those Asha'man are on which side of the divide between Rand's faithful and Taim's cronies.

 

Weren't the 51 all bonded by Logain's faction?

[Charlz Guybon]

And how was she to know the route the raken were taking? They could have gone south-west, down to Ebou Dar. Or gone West first to get straight into Seanchan controlled lands then South following the coast. Given 24 hours that is a huge radius of places to search.

Surely there must be warders of the captured sisters that could point the way?

[AuldGoldBeard]

Tracking them would be the hardest part, but I bet four dozen to'raken leave a heck of a lot of road apples.  (Also a really good point by Guybon about Warders).  You have to accept Traveling as lost at that point, with Elaida captured, and if the damane aren't looking down at the weaves, they won't see it anyway, so either the objection about losing Traveling or being attacked first is moot.  If they don't attack, the AS can just use air (not as a weapon) to corral the to'raken and take back the captives.  The Hall may have made problems, but I doubt it when it came to rescuing sisters.  JMO.  Good points, Lambada, but I don't think any or all of them are so strong that they justify completely conceding the loss of two dozen Aes Sedai without even making an attempt at getting them back.

 

The Black Tower is not a good analogy.  There were hundreds, if not thousands, of witnesses to the Seanchan attack, and therefore enough information to get a reasonable estimate of their strength.  It would make no sense for them to hold back any force, and Egwene herself thinks "They won't face me again" as Gawyn carries her off.  

 

Elaida jumped in blind with no intelligence and insufficient force.  Egwene had superb intelligence and overwhelming force at hand.  If even half the novices were ready to link, Egwene could have formed forty circles and utterly annihilated anything in her path.

 

 

Note: I also think many of the captives suffer from Minor Character Syndrome.  If Myrelle or Pevara or Siuan had been one of the AS captured, there would be much more of an outcry among the readership for their return.  The AS should be just as concerned about any of their number as they would be about the most significant AS characters in the plotline.

[farthammer]

They knew of that one raid, can you point out where the WT or Egwene know enough about the Seanchan forces to rule out them not being able to pull off another raid?  This wasn't an all out assault on the WT, no where near the full extent of what the Seanchan are capable of.  Throw in one of the Forsaken possibly still in the tower, numerous other black ajah sisters unaccounted for, and you think sending novices after professional assassins is a good idea?

[AuldGoldBeard]

Sending novices after those trained assassins worked out pretty well for Egwene in the Tower, didn't it?  They obviously wouldn't be leading circles, would only be conduits in a circle led by a full-fledged AS.

 

Raids don't occur two days apart when they have to cover hundreds, if not thousands, of miles.  And Elayne and Nynaeve were present in Ebou Dar when the city fell, have plenty of Ebou Dar contacts from the Kin, and have been in contact with Egwene.  So yes, I think they had excellent intelligence of the raiding force--which is really all that is relevant--and decent intelligence on the greater body of Seanchan in Ebou Dar.

[farthammer]

The point is that we know there is only one raid, and how far away it originated, they don't.  If the AS response to a raid is they send an all out counterattack with their top leadership they'll just get ambushed the next time.  Egwene's not a general anyway.

[Random Man]

 

 

The upper limit for a circle is 72 according to RJ (the 3rd Agers don't know this) and (not taking into account individual strengths and skills) the best ratio would be 37 women to 35 men. Either a man or a woman could lead this circle. Since there are 51 bonded Aes Sedai, the Asha'man have more than enough to make a full circle of 72 using bonded Aes Sedai -- of course, we don't know how many of those Asha'man are on which side of the divide between Rand's faithful and Taim's cronies.

 

Weren't the 51 all bonded by Logain's faction?

I don't think we actually know who bonded who at this point beyond Logain's pair. It was by Taim's order that the Aes Sedai be bonded (to avert a potential battle) so I wouldn't be surprised if a number of them were actually bonded by Taim's cronies.

[Deadsy]

Weren't the 51 all bonded by Logain's faction?

I don't think we actually know who bonded who at this point beyond Logain's pair. It was by Taim's order that the Aes Sedai be bonded (to avert a potential battle) so I wouldn't be surprised if a number of them were actually bonded by Taim's cronies.

 

 

Guybon's correct. From PoD:

 

"Did you take a second one? The M'Hael won't like that. I don't think he likes us taking any!

 

 

and I believe there is some other mention that shows that they are all with Logain's group.

[Charlz Guybon]

Taim won't be hurting for women, there's still about 130 black ajah sisters running around.

[Deadsy]

Taim won't be hurting for women, there's still about 130 black ajah sisters running around.

 

I hope we get some inside PoVs of that. The BA are still going to hate them, even if they're on the same side.

[Jeangray]

I wonder why Egwene didn't try to track the Seanchan raid in T'AR. They can't be flying 24/7, surely. Also, shouldn't she know some of the novices/Accepted well enough to touch their dreams, after all the counselling she provided to them?

Elaida could be sent ahead, once the Seanchan learn her identity, and the rest could still be rescued.

I disagree that Egwene could have done anything before the BA purge/re-unification, but there should still have been a couple of days afterwards in which to try. In fact, I was surprised that she didn't at least think about it in the epilogue.

 

Another thing that Egwene should look into is reasoning with the Borderlanders. After all, they do what they do (whatever it is) because they think that the Tower failed to act.

 

Oh, and she ought to send AS and soldiers to Lan's help.

 

 

As to what Egwene needs to do to prepare the White Tower for Tarmon Gaidon:

 

Everybody who didn't yet reach their full potential needs to be forced to achieve it as soon as possible. Which can be done in circles without any risk of burn-out. And these circles can actually do some useful work in the meantime.

 

Everybody needs to spar and train in battle weaves and particularly come up with battle-weaves suitable for people strong in Air and Water, rather than Fire and Earth. The AS nearly always fight with their weakest powers - no wonder that they suck at it.

 

Everybody needs a crash course in tactics, administered by Bryn's veterans. As well as learn to work in concert with the troops.

 

Everybody needs to share their secret weaves with everybody else.

 

Everybody needs a crash course in Healing and/or field medicine.

 

All the Accepted need to be readied for their test ASAP - no more time for teaching, chores, choosing their own studies, etc.

As many novices as possible should be made ready for their test as well. Ditto about the chores - they need to train and cram their every waking minute.

 

 

 

 

[FarShainMael]

Which is more or less what Taim's been doing with his recruits!

 

Add to that training in conventional weapons, say crossbows. Cue Birgitte.

 

[Charlz Guybon]

 

Everybody needs to spar and train in battle weaves and particularly come up with battle-weaves suitable for people strong in Air and Water, rather than Fire and Earth. The AS nearly always fight with their weakest powers - no wonder that they suck at it.

 

The damane fight with fire and earth, and they're good at what they do.

[Durinax]

 

Everybody needs to spar and train in battle weaves and particularly come up with battle-weaves suitable for people strong in Air and Water, rather than Fire and Earth. The AS nearly always fight with their weakest powers - no wonder that they suck at it.

 

The damane fight with fire and earth, and they're good at what they do.

of course their good, they have been practicing for years, and I believe that nyn was shocked at how many war weaves that alivia knew

 

Now egwene probably didnt do anything to chase the seanchan because she suddenly had control of the city, all AS, and needed to work on gaining power from the hall. So I expect that the next few pov's from her will be much like elaynes (about how hard running a city is, blah blah blah). Plus eliminating the majority of the  black ajah was important, and personnally I feel that she should reveal to the world how many they destroyed and say that we have cleansed ourselves and are ready to fight the shadow as a moral boost and an example for the rest of the world. and this is the closest to defending egwene that I will ever come, most especially after my last reread when I saw that she saw herself as a hero of the horn called to smite her enemies bit following the raid.

 

as for the damane vs AS fights, I think the damane have the advantage because while they cannot link they can come in from different directions and destroy any circle, since the leader has to be able to see the weaves to fight them.

 

 

[Jeangray]

The damane fight with fire and earth, and they're good at what they do.

 

Not as good as the Asha'man despite huge advantage in experience. Also, RJ said that there are more female channelers strong in Earth and Fire in Seanchan than in Randland. And BTW, did we ever see damane using something more complicated than a basic lightning, fireball, shield and earth eruption in combat? That's not very sophisticated, is it?

 

The WT needs to develop battle weaves and combined tactics with troops that would allow even weak channelers to be effective and hold out longer. They should also train for speed. Using their weakest powers in combat is both ineffective and exhausting. 

[farthammer]

The AS have so many other strengths over damane, direct confrontation is where they are weakest so it seems unlikely to me they will make a huge commitment in that direction.  They may as well remove the oaths at that point otherwise.