"Present Day" Aes Sedai strength

[Nightstrike]

What's the median of Aes Sedai strength during the time of the series? Given as percentages of Lanfear's full strength, such as it were when she had newly awakened from the 3 000 years in entrapment. Only females (naturally), and only those that are Aes Sedai.

 

Could be interesting to see what people think.

 

[KaptainKaos]

There's a few ways to attempt to figure this out but without a quote from a Robert Jordan interview or his team it would be hard to nail down effectively. 

 

The main problem is that a channeler's actual strength in the One Power isn't the only thing that determines how they stand in relation to other channelers.  Knowledge of what can be done with saidar or saidin and how is nearly as important as the person's actual strength.  The fact is that the Aes Sedai in the Tower now have no where near the knowledge of Lanfear and therefore however they stand in relation to her actual strength isn't really the case.  For instance, Alivia attacks Lanfear/Cydane in Winter's Heart with a much higher actual strength but because of Lanfear's knowledge of saidar she is able to keep herself on equal footing.

 

Really a neat poll though, it will be interesting to see the responses.   

[The Fisher King]

I think it would be REALLY HARD to get an accurate bead on this but its a Fun Topic.

 

We DO know, however, for example, that Moiraine Damodred, before her trip to FinnLand, was one of the more spectacularly powerful Aes Sedai to come along in many, many generations.

 

 

Fish

[Majsju]

I think it would be REALLY HARD to get an accurate bead on this but its a Fun Topic.

 

We DO know, however, for example, that Moiraine Damodred, before her trip to FinnLand, was one of the more spectacularly powerful Aes Sedai to come along in many, many generations.

 

 

Fish

 

"Spectacularly" is a bit of an exageration. From Cadsuane, we know that Kerene Nagashi and Meilyn Arganya are the strongest Aes Sedai in the last 600 years, and from those two there is a sharp drop to Moiraines level. A level Moiraine shares with Siuan and three others. And that is not counting the Aes Sedai on Moiraines level, or even stronger, who have died in those 600 years.

 

[The Fisher King]

Well, Maj, I am pretty much going off of New Spring and I always got the impression that Siuan/Moir were their generation's version of the present day wonder-girl twosome of Elayne/Egw.

 

I think we find out a bit more about Siuan though, in TDR and she turned out to not be all THAT strong in the end, but still, obviously ended up as The Amyrilin Seat.

 

 

Fish

[KaptainKaos]

Even Cadsuane, Kerene or Meilyn would have almost no chance against Lanfear so it is hard to determine how close they would stand to her in strength alone.  Lanfear could just invert her weaves or use one of those handy weaves to distract a channeler only the Forsaken seem to know about and boom, they're done.    

[mb]

voted that I do not have any idea.

 

Of saidar channelers strong enough to reach rank Aes Sedia; the weakest are at level 4 (if the list at Thirteen Depository is correct).

Strongest Light-sided saidar channeler is at level 19 (if that list is correct).

Have not checked the number of saidar channelers in the list.

 

The best way to determine the average strength would be to determine how far consecutive levels are from each other.

The exact values would likely be in the notes.

 

[Nightstrike]

"Spectacularly" is a bit of an exageration.

Less than 1 out of 200 of all potential channelers (the female ones) are stronger than her nowadays (both during New Spring AND the main series). That's really spectacular, IMO!

 

Edit: Maybe that should be "less than 1 out of 300 of all potential channelers"?

 

 

[Majsju]

Well, Maj, I am pretty much going off of New Spring and I always got the impression that Siuan/Moir were their generation's version of the present day wonder-girl twosome of Elayne/Egw.

 

I think we find out a bit more about Siuan though, in TDR and she turned out to not be all THAT strong in the end, but still, obviously ended up as The Amyrilin Seat.

 

 

Fish

 

Moiraine and Siuan are quite a bit beneath Cadsuane, as well as Kerene and Meilyn. They are also not alone on their level of strength, as there are three other living Aes Sedai.

 

Egwene and Elayne on the other hand, they are stronger than Cadsuane, who were the strongest Aes Sedai in 1000 years. Not to mention Nynaeve, who is stronger than some of the forsaken. Quite a difference, yes?

 

 

[The Fisher King]

I was actually comparing eras, not people. I was comparing generation to generation, not Elayne/Egg/Nyn Vs Moir/Siuan.

 

I know Nyn and Elayne and Egg are the most powerful individual channelers in a looong time, but I was comparing that their present-time ''Super Girl'' Status is eerily similar to the fact that we know that Siuan and Moiraine were pretty clearly the ''Golden Girls'' of their era lol

 

 

Fish

 

 

''Treasures. Dealings. Lots of things in books.''

[Nightstrike]

These are the Aes Sedai (Aes Sedai as of TGS) that are stronger than Moiraine(old)/Siuan(old)/Elaida:

Nynaeve

Egwene

Alayne

Cadsuane

Nicola

 

There are now slightly less than 1 000 Aes Sedai. Since only 62.5 percent of all potential channelers can become Aes Sedai, that would mean that (990/0.625=) 1 584 potential channelers eventually gave rise to those Aes Sedai.

 

Five out of 1 584 is very rare. During New Spring there were even more Aes Sedai than there are now, and then there were only 3 that were stronger than Elaida.

 

 

From cadsuane there's a sharp drop to Elaida. Egwene is stronger than Cadsuane. Nynaeve has been compared to Egwene with the remark "a bonfire next to a candle". Alivia is significantly stronger than Nynaeve.

 

 

[rubbernilly]

You speak of these numbers as if you know something.

 

(and, yes, you should hear the unspoken, "...but you don't.")

[Nightstrike]

You speak of these numbers as if you know something.

Which number of those I just mentioned do I not know?

 

These are the Aes Sedai (Aes Sedai as of TGS) that are stronger than Moiraine(old)/Siuan(old)/Elaida:

Nynaeve

Egwene

Elayne

Cadsuane

Nicola

 

There are now slightly less than 1 000 Aes Sedai. Since only 62.5 percent of all potential channelers can become Aes Sedai, that would mean that (990/0.625=) 1 584 potential channelers eventually gave rise to those Aes Sedai.

 

Five out of 1 584 is very rare. During New Spring there were even more Aes Sedai than there are now, and then there were only 3 that were stronger than Elaida.

 

 

From Cadsuane there's a sharp drop to Elaida. Egwene is stronger than Cadsuane. Nynaeve has been compared to Egwene with the remark "a bonfire next to a candle". Alivia is significantly stronger than Nynaeve.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

In a perfectly symmetric curve, 1 out of 200 means 79 percent of the strongest one's strength (for a population of 100 000 female channelers) or 72 percent of the strongest one's strength (for a population of 500 million female channelers).

 

 

(There were at least hundreds of thousands of channelers during the AoL, and quite possibly millions.)

 

(Five out of 1 584 potential channelers means that only 1 out of 317 are stronger than Elaida/Siuan/Moiraine.)

 

 

[jaldy3]

I went with between 30 and 50% of Lanfears strenght.

 

 

If we could quantify

the OP as a volume such as I have done here....http://forums.dragonmount.com/index.php/topic,54804.0.html

we might get a more realistic idea of relative strength. As long as we are talking purely strenght and not coupleing it with knowledge of the various weaves ect...

[rubbernilly]

You speak of these numbers as if you know something.

Which number of those I just mentioned do I not know?

 

Any/all of them, since they drive off the same basic assumptions.

 

(First off, where did RJ say it was a symmetric curve? Can you point me to a quote?)

 

You have no way to take into account population dispersal and cultural differences. You cannot know that this generation Shara is especially strong in the power while the Isle of Madmen is especially weak. Whatever RJ meant by his references to percentages with regard to potential to become Aes Sedai, you cannot reverse engineer very much from it because you have to assume even-dispersal across borders/cultures/races... at least as far as the reach of the White Tower is concerned. You have no idea what their actual sampling pool was like.

 

Let me point out a more immediate example of some bad reasoning on your part:

There are now slightly less than 1 000 Aes Sedai. Since only 62.5 percent of all potential channelers can become Aes Sedai, that would mean that (990/0.625=) 1 584 potential channelers eventually gave rise to those Aes Sedai.

 

Your reasoning is backwards here.

 

Your statement would only be right if you assume that the White Tower found (and raised) every woman who could pass this strength/effectiveness test that RJ spoke of (so that 1000 = 62.5% of x). We know from the text that that is absolutely false. They have withered specifically because they do not actively seek girls. Again, you don't know their sampling pool.

 

We know they missed some--heck, they would have missed Egwene and Nynaeve had Moiraine not stumbled into that backwater village--but how many? How many were there to begin with? Are there more in areas that run strong in the old blood? What is the genetic involvement? What if the Wheel weaved more channelers to be between the ocean and the Spine of the World (rather than in the Aiel or in Shara) because that's where the Dragon would need them?

 

Your numbers are only as solid as the assumptions underlying them... and yours are lacking.

 

But... but it's even simpler than that: ultimately, you're trying to work out mathematical certainties based on a work of fiction.

 

Let me repeat that...

 

Ultimately, you're trying to work out mathematical certainties based on a work of fiction.

 

(Should I bold that? Make it a larger font size? You tend to do that as if you think font size/weight is proportional to truth.)

 

Hey, who am I to stop you? You've got your pin. Count those dancing angels.

 

[Nightstrike]

Any/all of them, since they drive off the same basic assumptions.

No, I've got quotes for all so called "assumptions". The 62.5 percent was stated by RJ in his blog, for instance.

 

(First off, where did RJ say it was a symmetric curve? Can you point me to a quote?)

He never claimed that it was. I've never claimed that he said that. I can't give that quote, since he never said it. In fact, I've proved that that was not what he actually meant.

 

You have no way to take into account population dispersal and cultural differences. You cannot know that this generation Shara is especially strong in the power while the Isle of Madmen is especially weak.

I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about the "modern day" Aes Sedai.

 

You have no idea what their actual sampling pool was like.

Their sampling pool was the population of Randland. We know 62.5 percent of those are strong enough to become Aes Sedai. RJ told us in his blog.

 

Your statement would only be right if you assume that the White Tower found (and raised) every woman who could pass this strength/effectiveness test that RJ spoke of (so that 1000 = 62.5% of x). We know from the text that that is absolutely false. They have withered specifically because they do not actively seek girls. Again, you don't know their sampling pool.

If they have bad recruitment, then it still doesn't negate the quotes that refer to Nynaeve and the rest. I'm talking about the Aes Sedai. Bad recruitment could only mean a slightly higher median of AS strength than the "expected", and, more importantly, a much stronger Elaida - stronger than 80 percent of Lanfear's strength, if we assume a perfectly symmetric curve.

 

(Should I bold that? Make it a larger font size? You tend to do that as if you think font size/weight is proportional to truth.)

In my case, it is proportional to truth.  ;D

 

 

[rubbernilly]

Any/all of them, since they drive off the same basic assumptions.

No, I've got quotes for all so called "assumptions". The 62.5 percent was stated by RJ in his blog, for instance.

 

I know that quote. I read it. The assumptions that I speak of are the ones that say that strength in the Power is evenly distributed across Randland. The sampling could be horribly skewed if Andor were a concentrated, high-power producing area (while someplace like Shara would be lower, to preserve the balance). If you can't establish even distribution, you're dancing in the dark.

 

You have no way to take into account population dispersal and cultural differences. You cannot know that this generation Shara is especially strong in the power while the Isle of Madmen is especially weak.

I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about the "modern day" Aes Sedai.

 

...who drew their ranks from the population around them. Again, this drives off the dispersal of strength in the power across country and race. You assume this to be regular, but you can't support that assumption.

 

You have no idea what their actual sampling pool was like.

Their sampling pool was the population of Randland. We know 62.5 percent of those are strong enough to become Aes Sedai. RJ told us in his blog.

 

But is everything west of the Spine stronger right now (because the Wheel saw the need for Rand to have stronger channelers during these years)? That would skew the sampling.

 

Your statement would only be right if you assume that the White Tower found (and raised) every woman who could pass this strength/effectiveness test that RJ spoke of (so that 1000 = 62.5% of x). We know from the text that that is absolutely false. They have withered specifically because they do not actively seek girls. Again, you don't know their sampling pool.

If they have bad recruitment, then it still doesn't negate the quotes that refer to Nynaeve and the rest. I'm talking about the Aes Sedai. Bad recruitment could only mean a slightly higher median of AS strength than the "expected", and, more importantly, a much stronger Elaida - stronger than 80 percent of Lanfear's strength, if we assume a perfectly symmetric curve.

 

Bad recruiting could mean higher *or* lower median. You'd have to know, among the wider population of channelers that they had access to, how that strength was distributed, and then you'd have to know whether they got people generally on the upper end or the lower end. You can't substantiate anything about strength dispersal across geographic area, only that among all female channelers, 62.5% possess the strength to become Aes Sedai.

 

Unless, as I suspect, that post from RJ was quite a bit of tongue-in-cheek, designed to see if someone like you would try to take it and run and do all of this fanatic figuring. I mean, 62.5%? Really? Just that much? And an equally odd, and oddly exact 64.5% for men (IIRC)? That savors strongly of:

 

How many non-Tairen horses are as high quality as Tairen blood-stock?

Oh, about 23.114%

[Nightstrike]

I know that quote. I read it. The assumptions that I speak of are the ones that say that strength in the Power is evenly distributed across Randland. The sampling could be horribly skewed if Andor were a concentrated, high-power producing area (while someplace like Shara would be lower, to preserve the balance). If you can't establish even distribution, you're dancing in the dark.

RJ said 62.5 percent, so that's the limit for the population. Slightly more for the men, but it's 62.5 percent for the population that Aes Sedai recruit from. That's a fact. People can choose to dance in the dark all they wish, but that won't change anything that RJ said. I have complete trust in RJ's words.  :)

 

...who drew their ranks from the population around them. Again, this drives off the dispersal of strength in the power across country and race. You assume this to be regular, but you can't support that assumption.

It's 62.5 percent for the population that Aes Sedai recruit from. RJ told us that. Shara & other parts of the world mean absolutely nothing.

 

Bad recruiting could mean higher *or* lower median. You'd have to know, among the wider population of channelers that they had access to, how that strength was distributed, and then you'd have to know whether they got people generally on the upper end or the lower end. You can't substantiate anything about strength dispersal across geographic area, only that among all female channelers, 62.5% possess the strength to become Aes Sedai.

Bad recruiting would mean that the stronger sparkers are more likely to get recruited. Since they value those more. I've given a quote in another thread were it is said that sparkers have no say over getting recruited, while the weaker learners are more free to do as they wish. We also know that bringing in the strong ones gives extra status to the Ajah that brought them in.

 

Unless, as I suspect, that post from RJ was quite a bit of tongue-in-cheek, designed to see if someone like you would try to take it and run and do all of this fanatic figuring. I mean, 62.5%? Really? Just that much? And an equally odd, and oddly exact 64.5% for men (IIRC)?

It doesn't mean much difference if it had been 60 percent or 70 percent instead. The conclusion that could have been drawn would have been pretty much the same in either case.

 

 

 

[rubbernilly]

Here is the RJ quote:

For Gyrehead, Foretelling is not related to strength.  The weakest possible channeler could Foretell as strongly as Elaida or Nicola, or perhaps even more so, depending entirely on the strength of his or her Talent for Foretelling.  The three Red Sitters were sent into exile in 985 NE under Marith Jaen.  Yes, Morgase has slowed, and that is exactly why there is so much emphasis on her looking only ten years older than Perrin when she has children the ages of Elayne and Gawyn.  Regarding the percentage of women who could test for the shawl, it would be 62.5% of the bellcurve.  I’ll leave the maths to you for an idle moment.  The question doesn’t really apply to men, since the Black Tower accepts anyone who can learn to channel, but if the White Tower limits were applied, it would be roughly 65.4% of the bellcurve.  Although, considering the effectiveness question, they should probably set it at the same 62.5%.  Again, the maths are all yours.  Regarding the levels of male strength, while the weakest man and the weakest woman would be roughly equivalent, you might say that there are several levels of male strength on top of the female levels.  Remember to integrate this with what I’ve said elsewhere about effectiveness, though

 

Tell me where that establishes that we're talking about some limited population from which the AS draw their ranks? Tell me where that establishes that we're talking about any population *other* than all female channelers (or men, for the 65.4% figure)?

 

We're talking about the set of all female channelers... which is a closed system. If Andor is higher in the number/strength produced, some other place has to be lower to fit that 62.5% figure (if we are to take that seriously).

 

You can't substantiate even dispersal.

 

Bad recruiting could mean higher *or* lower median. You'd have to know, among the wider population of channelers that they had access to, how that strength was distributed, and then you'd have to know whether they got people generally on the upper end or the lower end. You can't substantiate anything about strength dispersal across geographic area, only that among all female channelers, 62.5% possess the strength to become Aes Sedai.

Bad recruiting would mean that the stronger sparkers are more likely to get recruited. Since they value those more. I've given a quote in another thread were it is said that sparkers have no say over getting recruited, while the weaker learners are more free to do as they wish. We also know that bringing in the strong ones gives extra status to the Ajah that brought them in.

 

The point is that you don't know what potential channelers are around to draw from. Short of establishing proof of even dispersal (or, more impractically, knowing about every single channeler), there is just no way to link AS strength to that of channelers overall.

 

Unless, as I suspect, that post from RJ was quite a bit of tongue-in-cheek, designed to see if someone like you would try to take it and run and do all of this fanatic figuring. I mean, 62.5%? Really? Just that much? And an equally odd, and oddly exact 64.5% for men (IIRC)?

It doesn't mean much difference if it had been 60 percent or 70 percent instead. The conclusion that could have been drawn would have been pretty much the same in either case.

All the more reason that 62.5 is a meaningless number, meant to get people like you to start counting dancing angels.

[Nightstrike]

It's pretty clear what RJ talked about. It wouldn't matter anyway. Same conclusion as before, regardless of how you try to "interpret" it.

 

Aes Sedai stay out of the breeding pool, which means that they have a lower percentage of channelers than they have in other parts of the world. It does not mean they are weaker than in other parts of the world.

 

If culling the ablility to channel from 3 to 1 percent (of the population) would have meant that their average & median have become lower than during the AoL, then it would have supported my previous conclusion. That the median & average are a lot lower than 50 percent of Lanfear's OP strength.

 

 

These are the Aes Sedai (Aes Sedai as of TGS) that are stronger than Moiraine(old)/Siuan(old)/Elaida:

Nynaeve

Egwene

Elayne

Cadsuane

Nicola

 

Five out of all Aes Sedai is very rare. During New Spring there were even more Aes Sedai than there are now, and then there were only 3 that were stronger than Elaida.

 

 

From Cadsuane there's a sharp drop to Elaida. Egwene is stronger than Cadsuane. Nynaeve has been compared to Egwene with the remark "a bonfire next to a candle". Alivia is significantly stronger than Nynaeve.

 

 

[Nightstrike]

"Less than 62.5 percent are strong enough" => much lower median than 50 percent of Lanfear's strength.

 

 

"More than 62.5 percent are strong enough" => much lower median than 50 percent of Lanfear's strength.

 

[rubbernilly]

The problem is that RJ's quote dealt with the number of women who could test for the shawl, not the strength of the women who did.

 

Get it?

[Nightstrike]

It doesn't matter. The curves aren't symmetrical.

 

The mean & the median of Aes Sedai strength are far below 50 percent of Lanfear's strength.

 

That's regardless of recruitment procedures.

[Nightstrike]

Weaker than expected recruits supports the stuff I mentioned earlier. A huge difference between Elaida and the strongest female channeler ever.

 

Stronger than expected would lead to Egwene being more than 1.05 times Lanfear's strength (based on weight lifted). We know that she's nowhere near Lanfear's full strength. That's if we "pretend" that the curve is symmetric. (Which it is not.)

 

Also, completely apart from all the things I've mentioned already, what RJ said in his blog means that the curves can't be symmetrical.