[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[Far Dareis Mai]

No.

 

The Firefighter is the cure to the arsonist. As long as he is alive, the arsonist is useless.

I imagine the exact same thing goes for the Poisoner/Poison Doctor. Right now that is two SK's that are completely inept.

 

We don't know if the Traitor is an SK role. It sounds more like a symp. We also don't know that the Vig is free range. Most Vig's get one kill. And they are innocent. That certainly does not necessarily benefit the mafia.

 

I feel like you are playing out worst case scenarios here without actually breaking these roles down and looking at the big picture. We know that DPR would not overweight either the mafia or the Innocents, and we also already know that there are at least two potentially bad aligned jobs that aren't useful until their good counterparts are dead. So...are you following my train of thought here?

[Far Dareis Mai]

Aaaand, it has finally dawned on me that Alys and I are starting our epic back and forth war on Day 1. May the Light help the rest of you. :P

[ed2funy]

I want to know about the LLLL - she said it with 4!

FDM & Alys going head to head? Dear Creator...

[Far Dareis Mai]

BTW, I have a serious suspicion to place, but I have to wait for DPR's confirmation on a question before I say anything. Someone is a lying liar who lyingly lies and I'm damn well going to find them.

 

Why would you even say something like this, at the risk of DPR not giving you the answer you are looking for?

 

And I'm guessing that there are probably at least 5 lying liars who lie. :P

[Kivam]

But Kivam, we can't really look at it as a whole (or at least I don't), he chooses one and he gets a 50/50 on that person only.

Sure we can factor in that a person has more of a chance, but then, so would everyone else.

It is still a 50/50 for that person.

 

 

EDIT: I don't get her list, but yes, I was.

 

Yes.  Its 50-50 for that person.

 

For anyone not viewed, it's 33%scum/66% townie (assuming a standard distribution of scum to townies in this game).

 

So, tell me - which person has a better chance of being mafia - the one with a 50% chance of being scum, or the one with a 33% chance of being scum?

[Far Dareis Mai]

I want to know about the LLLL - she said it with 4!

FDM & Alys going head to head? Dear Creator...

 

The worst part of this, is that 99.99999% of the time, one of us ends up killing the other, and in the end we are both innocent.  :-\

[Alys Kinch]

The Firefighter is the cure to the arsonist. As long as he is alive, the arsonist is useless.

I imagine the exact same thing goes for the Poisoner/Poison Doctor. Right now that is two SK's that are completely inept.

Except when the counter dies… Then we have a ton of deaths all at once. So no, not really.

 

And that’s if Kivam isn’t lying.

 

We don't know if the Traitor is an SK role. It sounds more like a symp

The traitor is a mafia member that we won’t know when or if he turns, so safer to count him as a traitor at all times. Saavy?

 

Most Vig's get one kill. And they are innocent.

And act for their own reasons. Some hit, some miss. Some kill annoying players. Some kill for a grudge.

 

We know that DPR would not overweight either the mafia or the Innocents,

That’s my point. It would be over weighted if their counterparts died and suddenly we have 3 night kills each night plus a vig and an sk.

 

 

 

Because I just need a simple clarification. And if he doesn't give me the answer I want, I'm still going for the information, just in another way.

 

Why won’t this stupid thing post???

 

[Naeann]

I said YOUR OPINION of who is evil... I never said there were NO evils in the bandwagon.

 

 

I also said I've seen the firefighter/arsonist role. ( I was the arsonist in the game.. with wolverine and storm and the mutant thingies)  I could kill at leisure each night until the firefighter found me.  I was then reverted to innocent.  Hence my comment to Kivam.  In that game I chose to leave clues for the firefighter and play as innocent.  In this one the arsonist may rather try for the solo win.  It all depends on the mod and how he choses to do the roles.  He may do one one way and the other another way.

[Alys Kinch]

PS Far, 5 makes it a quarter of the game. That's a much as equal distribution can take. So you'd have to cut out the potential for the arson, psycho, poison, traitor, sk, and vig roles to have equality.

[Kivam]

I said YOUR OPINION of who is evil... I never said there were NO evils in the bandwagon.

 

Actually, FDM never said anything about choosing one of her suspects.  She said we should choose someone from the bandwagon, and listed her top choices.  If you have better suggestions for someone on the bandwagon who might be evil, list 'em and give your reasons.

 

 

I also said I've seen the firefighter/arsonist role. ( I was the arsonist in the game.. with wolverine and storm and the mutant thingies)  I could kill at leisure each night until the firefighter found me.  I was then reverted to innocent.  Hence my comment to Kivam.  In that game I chose to leave clues for the firefighter and play as innocent.  In this one the arsonist may rather try for the solo win.  It all depends on the mod and how he choses to do the roles.  He may do one one way and the other another way.

 

Yep - in this game, the role is different.  No killing until I'm dead; the fact that I'm alive prevents any of his fires from going off.

[Kivam]

PS Far, 5 makes it a quarter of the game. That's a much as equal distribution can take. So you'd have to cut out the potential for the arson, psycho, poison, traitor, sk, and vig roles to have equality.

 

Naw - with a serial killer in the game, the breakdown usually becomes 33% scum, lowering the town's chances of victory to 50% and leaving mafia and serial at close to 25% each.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Does it say anything in your role that the firefighter turns the arsonist into a vanilla townie should you correctly target them? That may be something useful to clarify with DPR. If so, it would be extremely helpful for us to find that arsonist and turn them innocent.

[Naeann]

No no.. I got that Kivam.. I just questioned what would happen if he targeted you. 

 

A good point FDM.  Same instance with the Psycho.

[Kivam]

Does it say anything in your role that the firefighter turns the arsonist into a vanilla townie should you correctly target them? That may be something useful to clarify with DPR. If so, it would be extremely helpful for us to find that arsonist and turn them innocent.

 

Yes, it does.  The two of us become vanilla townies at that point.

[Kivam]

Does it say anything in your role that the firefighter turns the arsonist into a vanilla townie should you correctly target them? That may be something useful to clarify with DPR. If so, it would be extremely helpful for us to find that arsonist and turn them innocent.

 

No no.. I got that Kivam.. I just questioned what would happen if he targeted you. 

 

A good point FDM.  Same instance with the Psycho.

 

Hence why I was initially keen on the mass reveal.

[ed2funy]

But Kivam, we can't really look at it as a whole (or at least I don't), he chooses one and he gets a 50/50 on that person only.

Sure we can factor in that a person has more of a chance, but then, so would everyone else.

It is still a 50/50 for that person.

 

 

EDIT: I don't get her list, but yes, I was.

 

Yes.  Its 50-50 for that person.

 

For anyone not viewed, it's 33%scum/66% townie (assuming a standard distribution of scum to townies in this game).

 

So, tell me - which person has a better chance of being mafia - the one with a 50% chance of being scum, or the one with a 33% chance of being scum?

 

I voted for your numbers for a reason Kivam.

I am sorry, but I am not connecting it to the overall.

I see it case by case here. :-\

[Alys Kinch]

Yep - in this game, the role is different.  No killing until I'm dead; the fact that I'm alive prevents any of his fires from going off.

Unlike others, I’m not taking your word. I'll wait for proof.

 

Naw - with a serial killer in the game, the breakdown usually becomes 33% scum, lowering the town's chances of victory to 50% and leaving mafia and serial at close to 25% each.

Again, that’s my point. I disagree with Far saying 5. It’s going to be much closer to 3 unless those roles are the mafia, a suspicion I’ve already taken up with DPR.

 

[Far Dareis Mai]

Okay okay, so let's think about this then.

 

1. We don't want you to necessarily turn the arsonist vanilla--yet. Because if you do, then both you and the arsonist will become Mafia NK fodder. I think the only thing that is going to keep you alive in this game during the night is the fact that if you die, the mafia run the risk of A. dying en masse, or B. losing that mass innocent kill that they will benefit from with the arsonist.

 

2. This role is just like my bomb role. I wonder if we will know who the Arsonist primes the next day.

 

I'm beginning to have a good idea, and currently lamenting that the only place I can share it is on this stupid thread.  :-\

 

 

[Naeann]

 

I'm beginning to have a good idea, and currently lamenting that the only place I can share it is on this stupid thread.  :-\

 

 

 

Or so you want us to believe.  :-* (continues to annoyingly analyze everything people say)

[Far Dareis Mai]

Psh, whatever Shin-nae-nae. Why don't you go over to your mafia pm's and discuss who is going to take the lynch for the team, because Goddess Far has you all figured out!  :-*

 

(We are just kidding back and forth, btw--well, I am. She's probably not because she goes all 'Bride of Chucky' during these games).

[WWWwombat]

Kivam, I don't think your reasoning on the probabilities is right.  Suppose we randomly view tons of people and kill them no matter the result.  In effect, we are just randomly killing people, so imo we should get scum 33% of the time, not 50%.  Now, if we viewed random people and only killed them if we got a certain result, I think we might get scum half the time.

[Kivam]

Yep - in this game, the role is different.  No killing until I'm dead; the fact that I'm alive prevents any of his fires from going off.

Unlike others, I’m not taking your word. I'll wait for proof.

 

As you should.  DPR has confirmed it to me, btw - arsonist is powerless to NK me.  

 

When you don't see me go up in a tower of flames tomorrow morning, that'll prove it  ;D

[Verbal32]

LOL - I was just about to say the same thing, Nae.

 

 

And for what it's worth, my guess is that the Poisoner / Poison Doctor works differently than the Arsonist / Firefighter.  I know I'm not as good at role design and tweaking as Wes, but if I was the Mod, I'd have the roles like this:

 

- Poisoner can poison 1 player each night

- That player will die after a specified amount of time unless "found" by the Poison Doctor

- I would imagine the poisoned player will have a PR that the Poison Doctor will need to find

- The Poison Doctor can "find" the Poisoner and neutralize them ala the Arsonist / Firefighter

 

If true, that makes the Poison Doctor's role quite difficult depending on the subtlety of the potential PRs.  Of course, I could be way off, but that's how I would design them.  Just my 2 cents.

[Naeann]

Psh whatever Far.. I'm not bride of chucky... I'm making logical sense.  WHY did you "whine" that the "ONLY" place you can post your ideas is in the "stupid thread"?  It's like you are again trying to subtly point out that you aren't mafia on a team.  It's also the second time this game you have done something like that.

 

(and yes, we kid with each other.. outside of the games I less than three Far :-*)

[Kivam]

Kivam, I don't think your reasoning on the probabilities is right.  Suppose we randomly view tons of people and kill them no matter the result.  In effect, we are just randomly killing people, so imo we should get scum 33% of the time, not 50%.  Now, if we viewed random people and only killed them if we got a certain result, I think we might get scum half the time.

 

Not quite.  Viewing the player essentially pulls them into a new group, for probability purposes.  Black ball white ball again.

 

Balls in the bag have a 25% probability that they are black.

 

I take it out, show it to you, and you flip a coin.  Heads you tell me the truth, tails you lie.  There's a 75% chance you're going to tell me it's white (37.5% chance - i.e. 50% of 75% - its white and accurate; 12.5% - 50% of 25% - chance its black and inaccurate) and a 25% chance you're going to tell me its black (37.5% chance its white and inaccurate; 12.5% chance it's black and accurate).

 

But whatever you tell me - whether you say it's white or black - there's only a 50% chance you're telling the truth.  So if you say it's white, there's a 50% chance that you're telling the truth and it's white, and a 50% chance you're lying and it's black.  If you tell me its black, there's a 50% chance you're telling me the truth and it's black, and a 50% chance you're lying and it's white.

 

Essentially, by introducing the "true or false" percentages into the equation, you've wiped out the original odds.

 

Of course, if you run through all the balls in the bag, you'll end up getting a black ball only 25% of the time.  But that's because the odds on each are independent, plus the odds are I'll tell you it's black only 25% of the time (so I can be inaccurate 50% of the time but still only have 25% black balls).

 

Bottom line - there's a 50% chance anyone Rey views is scum.