[DPR Mafia] Call-Your-Shot Mafia- Points being posted...

[Alys Kinch]

 If we have two suspects who seem equally scummy, and he viewed one but not the other, we should lynch the one he viewed (whether his view cam up innocent or guilty).

Blindly lynch a suspect just because he viewed them and we can’t choose, regardless of the results? Let me tell you how much sense THAT makes. Not to mention that he may have viewed more than one suspect that we can’t choose from. Again, I’m not seeing.

 

PS People, we are obviously having trouble coming up with a lynch for day one. It could be in our best interest to just vote for night, if DPR will let us do that. That said, we’ve seen day 2 come with no night results after such a vote, but I think it might be our best chances of moving past today.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Unvote [/glow]  to [glow=red,2,300]vote for night to come[/glow].

 

[ed2funy]

If you are going off of a 50/50 lynch, then it is still blind!

 

I don't think so. We need a lynch, or tomorrow, we could be back to another 50 page-day.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Okay, assuming Kivam's reveal is true, and I honestly feel its way too detailed to be a false claim, this actually gives us a lot of information.

 

Anyone who plays mafia knows the typical Day 1 process. 75% bandwagon, the rest vote off.

 

This means, that it is very likely that 3 or 4 of the votes on Kivam are mafia, whilst one or two of the votes OFF of Kivam are mafia. So this breaks the list down as such:

 

Mafia Bandwagon:

Verbal

Lav

Pete

Dae

Lily

Alys

Lia

Nae

Mafia Off Votes/No Vote:

Pandy

Hybrid

Talya

Pale

Rey

Ed

 

FDM

Barm

Wombat

Tynaal

Tigraine

Talmanes

 

This is typically my method for finding Mafia. It almost always works. I usually don't bust this out until Day 2, but with as long as Day1 has gone on, and with as close as we came to a lynch, it is still appropriate in this situation. :)

 

And in the interest of points, because I've got this Mafia Prediction thing going with DPR, my picks are:

Lavinya

Lily

Daetirion

Barm

Naeann

 

 

 

 

 

[DPR]

 

DPR do we have a go to night without a kill option?

 

Are you referring to the ever-debated [glow=red,2,300]No Lynch[/glow] option? Heh. There is certainly no rule against it...

[Verbal32]

I agree with FDM's analysis, though I would say more likely only 2 mafia on the wagon.  They tend to spread extra thin on Day 1 to avoid exactly what you are doing here.

[Far Dareis Mai]

In the beginning of the day, I would agree, but they need to get to night ASAP, and it seemed incredibly likely with Kivam. I think that toward the end they got anxious for his reveal and were hoping the Double Voter came out of the woodwork to do their dirty before he had a chance.

 

I picked Barm because he's been bouncy. It's a good strategy to use for mafia. 

[Alys Kinch]

We need a lynch, or tomorrow, we could be back to another 50 page-day

We should still have day one interactions plus night one actions to look through. It should give us something. Plus we do have info from today, but it’s not useful without night actions. Today hasn’t gotten anywhere for actual proof thus far though it’s been a jackpot of suspicions. If we aren’t going to night, we need another suggestion that everyone can swallow.

 

 

DPR, ever debated, but it does have it's moments. We've seen it work, especially in the first day or two.

 

2nd edit: FDM, getting to night can benefit us all, not just the mafia. Townies get nothing but suspicion on day one. Ever. We are lucky we've had what we've had.

 

Also, Mafia hardly ever take the risk of having everyone on the day one bandwagon... It's too easy to go back and sort later. Someone is always staunchly on another party, if not more than one someone. And it works because day one usually doesn't have to be driven. It rarely hits a mafia member.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Yeah, hence my stating that only 75% vote on the bandwagon, and the rest vote off. My logic is rather sound, if I take the time to toot mah horn (and I do).

[Kivam]

One person might want you dead Kivam... the arsonist.  At any rate.. I'm tempted to leave the vote there.. simply because out of all the revealers and other suspicious people you still have it out for me for some reason.. but [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow] for now.

 

Sure.  But as long as I'm alive, the arsonist can't kill anyone.  So unless you guys get me to L-1, or scum does his work for him, he can want me dead all he wants, but there's nothing he can do about it.

 

So, in essence, you are saing Rey will have a lot of control over who we lynch.  He can simply view the people he wants lynched. (sound like a fun role for a mafia to hide behind?) Who want's to line up first to be 50 shot viewed by Rey and therefore set up for a lynch on your head?  Anybody?

 

Nope.  His viewing someone only matters if they are one of two (or more) otherwise suspicious players.  And obviously, our cop (I'm certain we have a true, 100% finder in this game) should view Rey at some point to make sure he isn't scum.

 

Edit: doesn't make sense to me either Ed.  I'm not a math whiz and I don't see how someone would have a better shot at being mafia just because they were viewed by Rey and 50 percent chance his viewing of them is wrong.  Like I said.. I can pick any random person in the game right now and, with no finder role, can guess with a 50 percent accuracy if they are mafia or not.  They either are or they arent.

 

No, you can't - because while "they either are or they aren't", that doesn't mean they have a 50% chance of being scum.

 

Go back to my black ball/white ball analogy.  If you pick one ball out of a bag of 75 white balls and 25 black balls, it either is white or it isn't.  But that doesn't mean it has a 50% chance of being white - it has a 75% chance.

 

Same here.  If the scum are 33% of the players, then any player you select at random will have a 33% chance of being scum, right?  Even though "scum" and "not scum" are the only two options, its not 50-50.

 

Now, if Rey views them, his view has a 50% chance of being accurate.  Which means that whether he got a "Scum" view or a "Townie" view, the player he viewed has a 50% chance of being scum (if he got a scum result, then there's a 50% chance the view is accurate; if he got a townie result, there's a 50% chance the result is inaccurate).  

[Verbal32]

 

DPR do we have a go to night without a kill option?

 

Are you referring to the ever-debated [glow=red,2,300]No Lynch[/glow] option? Heh. There is certainly no rule against it...

 

I'm one of the ones who is against the No Lynch.  I hate it early.  Other than gimmick games, the only time it could be used early is when we all have roles, like we do now.  But I'm still against it, as it usually benefits the mafia more than the town.  Not always, but usually.

[Kivam]

Ed was on my lynch.

 

But I agree with FDM's logic, and her top suspect list matches mine rather neatly, with Alys currently floating at 6.

[Kivam]

I agree with FDM's analysis, though I would say more likely only 2 mafia on the wagon.  They tend to spread extra thin on Day 1 to avoid exactly what you are doing here.

 

This

[ed2funy]

But Kivam, we can't really look at it as a whole (or at least I don't), he chooses one and he gets a 50/50 on that person only.

Sure we can factor in that a person has more of a chance, but then, so would everyone else.

It is still a 50/50 for that person.

 

 

EDIT: I don't get her list, but yes, I was.

[Far Dareis Mai]

Yeah, but Ed bounced earlier. I took the count before you revealed, and that is what I came up with. Same with Barm. The mafia were sooooo on the cusp of nabbing you, I know in my SOUL that they got greedy. You are the perfect lynch, because as a NK it would be easier for us to deduce mafia, and they don't have to risk the doctor healing you anyway. There were more than two mafia on that bandwagon, I'd bet on it.

[ed2funy]

I thought I bounced after he revealed...I even voted for his numbers.

???

 

Oh well.

[Far Dareis Mai]

 

Lily is right - The vote count has been corrected.

 

Current Vote Count

 

Kivam (8) - Verbal, Lavinya, Pete, Dae, Lily, Alys, Lia, Nae

Nae (1) - Hybrid

Lavinya (2) - Kivam, Pandy

Pete (0) -

Pandy (0) -

Rey (2) - Talya, Pale

Dae (0) -

Talya (1) - Rey

Lily (0) -

Barms (1) - ed

FDM (0) -

Alys (0) -

 

With 21 players, it takes 11 to lynch.

 

Out of 21 players, 15 have voted. 6 players have not.

 

 

 

 

This is the quote I used. The next post was you voting for Kiv, and then the post after that was Kiv revealing, so that's why you aren't in the mix. Easy fix, and it makes you more likely to be mafia. Congrats! :P

[ed2funy]

*is still confused*

Sure. What Far said.

 

:-\

[Alys Kinch]

Yeah, hence my stating that only 75% vote on the bandwagon, and the rest vote off. My logic is rather sound, if I take the time to toot mah horn (and I do).

I wanted to elaborate on your point because it is possible that some people haven’t been reading thoroughly, if you haven’t noticed.

 

Also, my main point to you was the going to night benefitting us all not just mafia.

 

I'm one of the ones who is against the No Lynch.  I hate it early.  Other than gimmick games, the only time it could be used early is when we all have roles, like we do now.  But I'm still against it, as it usually benefits the mafia more than the town.  Not always, but usually.

As I said, good and bad strategy, but we need something to change. This day one has been epic. I never tried to hide the facts though. I challenge someone to suggest a lynch target that most people will swallow.

 

Alys currently floating at 6.

Aww, how sweet. Glad to know I rank.

 

[Naeann]

Kivam.. I said that about the arsonist because when I've seen that sort of role before.. if the arsonist picked the player who was the firefighter then he'd kill him and go on to either become another nightly killer to contend with or start being able to kill.(if all that was required to start getting nks was the firefighter being dead)

 

And like I said.  HORRIBLE at math, fractions, percentages, everything.. so I'm sorry for seeming stupid about the whole marbles thing but I honestly don't get it.  In my head... I pick a marble out of the bag and keep my hand closed.  I go up to you and say "this marble is white".  No matter how many marbles were in the bag.. I have a 50 percent shot at being correct about THAT marble.(that is basically what Rey's role is)  What I'm saying with that is I could pick any random player in the game and be just as correct as Rey about wether or not they are mafia. (In my thinking process)  I'm not saying You are wrong.. I'm saying I don't get it and all the numbers stuff just confuses me.  Does that make any sense now?

[Far Dareis Mai]

I think we should not do a No Lynch, and instead vote for one of the people who bandwagoned on Kivam. Even if -worst case scenario (Being Verbal and Kivam are right)- there were only two mafia that were on that bandwagon, a 22% chance at getting mafia, and best case scenario (I'm right), and having four mafia on that bandwagon a 44% chance of success. Those are good Day 1 numbers, imo.

 

Before this, we had a 1 in 21 (.05%) chance at nabbing mafia on Day 1. The odds are so much better, IMO. If we do a No Lynch, we have a 0% chance.    

[Alys Kinch]

I figure at most we have 3 mafia because of the other roles that are anti town. So I am not sure your numbers work. I am betting it's more likely there was a mafia member in one of each group. Especially since often enough there is an undedicated member to the mafia due to externalities. *goes to ponder roles again*

[Naeann]

The problem with that logic, FDM, is it's YOUR opinion of who is evil in the bandwagon and, frankly, I don't trust you any farther than I could pick you up and throw you.  You are near the top of more than one suspicion list yourself.  

[Far Dareis Mai]

There is nothing wrong with my logic. The logic itself is sound. And I've never said that we had to lynch the people on my suspect list. I've merely suggested that we lynch someone on Kivam's Mafia bandwagon. You are seriously damaged if you are going to sit there and tell me that you don't think any of the people on that bandwagon are mafia. Seriously.

 

As for your small numbers Alys, there is no way he would set up only two or three mafia and allow the SK's to make up the rest with a group this large. We have no idea what the SK's kill conditions are, or even if they get one kill per night. If what Kivam says is true, so long as he is alive, the arsonist doesn't even get a kill in, so already that proves your logic false. The ratio wouldn't be fair to the mafia.

[Alys Kinch]

As for your small numbers Alys, there is no way he would set up only two or three mafia and allow the SK's to make up the rest with a group this large

That’s not what I said. Arsonist. Psycho. Poisoner. Traitor. That’s a hell of a list to add to FOUR mafia. Plus an SK and maybe the evangelist (because we really don't know) and a free range vig who could hit anyone.

 

[Alys Kinch]

BTW, I have a serious suspicion to place, but I have to wait for DPR's confirmation on a question before I say anything. Someone is a lying liar who lyingly lies and I'm damn well going to find them.