The Military Discussion Thread. (Full Spoilers)

[Bob T Dwarf]

I think most would agree that big battles between armies aren't of much significance to the outcome of TG.

 

Where they become important is in who is with each army.  Which of the main characters emerges to take the next step toward whatever metaphysical battle actually determines the outcome.  So, significant as steppingstones, unimportant otherwise.

[Flanders]

I originially posted this in the "request new threads" topic, but Luckers suggested I post it here instead:

 

Trollocs make an attack inside Seanchan held territory near Ebou Dar (specifically encountered by Tylee, tGS hb 31-33)  Are these Trollocs part of group of "100 Myrddraal and thousands of trollocs" sent out by a someone impersonating Sammeal that Moridin was upset over? (KOD hb 147)  Or were all of those referenced the group used in the later attack against Rand near Tear. (KoD hb 408-414)

 

If they aren't part of that group, is this a second group sent out by a rogue Forsaken?

 

Or would this be a group sent out on purpose by Moridin?

 

As an aside, any thoughts as to what the purpose of that Trolloc raid was?  To take out Tylee specifically?  Perhaps some of the several hundred WO damane she captured?  (Presumably she brought the majority of them with her overland?) Just curious as to what others were thinking.  Again, I hadn't seen this discussed elsewhere or referenced in any of the Q&A reports.

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

I originially posted this in the "request new threads" topic, but Luckers suggested I post it here instead:

 

Trollocs make an attack inside Seanchan held territory near Ebou Dar (specifically encountered by Tylee, tGS hb 31-33)  Are these Trollocs part of group of "100 Myrddraal and thousands of trollocs" sent out by a someone impersonating Sammeal that Moridin was upset over? (KOD hb 147)   Or were all of those referenced the group used in the later attack against Rand near Tear. (KoD hb 408-414)

 

If they aren't part of that group, is this a second group sent out by a rogue Forsaken?

 

Or would this be a group sent out on purpose by Moridin?

 

As an aside, any thoughts as to what the purpose of that Trolloc raid was?  To take out Tylee specifically?  Perhaps some of the several hundred WO damane she captured?  (Presumably she brought the majority of them with her overland?) Just curious as to what others were thinking.  Again, I hadn't seen this discussed elsewhere or referenced in any of the Q&A reports.

 

 

Given that Rand & Co killed 100,000 Shadowspawn at the Manor, I'd say that the ones we see in TGS are not part of those sent by "Sammael."

 

They could even be some kind of reserve force that Semirhage had standing by who, with Semi captured and Suroth deposed, have just gone rogue.

 

I think we're just going to have to wait to see how they fit into the larger story.

 

 

[richnewton82]

.

[1eejit]

Perhaps the Trollocs were meant to go after the Ebou Dar Tinkers? I'm not sure how that would work though.

[Sentinel78]

Those particular Trollocs might have just exited out the wrong Waygate.  Trollocs are stupid, and Tylee didn't seem to indicate that any Fades were part of this attack.  If LARGE numbers of Trollocs are being moved through the Ways, this oddity could be an ominous sign of them building up their numbers somewhere.  A force of Trollocs small enough to be taken out by Tylee's army when they were surprised seems pretty random, unless they were one part of a bigger invasion somewhere. 

 

Of course, one of the Forsaken may have given the order without Moridin's knowledge for some reason we don't know of.

 

[Flanders]

The Trolloc attack surprised me - when I read the passage from tGS I took it as a not-so-small group of Trollocs.  To me, it seemed those were the forces that had been picking off her scouts too that Tylee first mentioned with Mishima (sp) before he got the arrow through the neck.

 

It just doesn't make sense though.  I haven't seen an updated timeline including tGS yet - and I know it's in a prologue - but this would seem to be well after both the attack on Rand in KoD and Moridin's complaints from earlier in KoD.

 

The big thing for me is that Moridin was quite specific as to both complaining over that group sent out AND insisting that any more attempts to move Trollocs that any of the Forsaken heard about through their networks should be reported immediately.   Reference the part in KoD from above.  I find it very odd that it was stated that only a Forsaken level person could have sent the Trollocs out and that no further raids should be conducted a very major indication of Moridin gathering in forces.  Then there is this relatively inconsequential raid.  I don't think it's an about-step on the author(s) part to forget the early decision, so it seems like there's only a few options (unless I'm missing something):

 

1)  continuing of "rogue" Forsaken attempts to send out Trollocs

2)  Moridin (or on Moridin's orders) Trollocs sent out

3) (as posted above) leftovers that Semirhage had on hand near Ebou Dar for some reason?

4)  Some other reason not listed above

 

Keep in mind, each of 1-3 only state the WHO, not the why, so the reason itself is still unknown.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Perhaps the Trollocs were meant to go after the Ebou Dar Tinkers? I'm not sure how that would work though.

 

Ooooooh.  Hadn't even thought of that.

 

We do have the previous and unexplained wipeout of a whole Tinker caravan that Mat came across long, long ago.

 

I like it.  Probably because I believe that The Song is not merely symbolic.  That it does have a powerful role to play, and that therefore the Dark is doing its best to take out anyone who might rediscover it.

 

Probably a good thing the Tinkers are sheltering inside Seanchan lines.

[Dunedain Fal]

Or it could be the handiwork of Fain and the Mai'chin?

[ajfurst]

Or it could be the handiwork of Fain and the Mai'chin?

Even if Fain could fool that many Fades/Trollocs, why Ebou Dar? Fain hates Mat and Perrin and REALLY hates Rand, and none are Ebou Dar. The closest you could stretch it is maybe he heard Mat was there, but seems a big stretch.

 

The whole thing seems strange. It wasn't enough to over run Ebou Dar - even with total surprise there are more troops/damane around Ebou Dar then Tylee had with her. If the aim was chaos in Seanchan lands then a bunch of smaller bands raiding villages throughout Altara would surely have served better (remembering the Trollocs were the ones doing the surprising, so they could have left Tylee and split their forces). 

 

[1eejit]

Perhaps the Trollocs were meant to go after the Ebou Dar Tinkers? I'm not sure how that would work though.

 

Ooooooh.  Hadn't even thought of that.

 

We do have the previous and unexplained wipeout of a whole Tinker caravan that Mat came across long, long ago.

 

I like it.  Probably because I believe that The Song is not merely symbolic.  That it does have a powerful role to play, and that therefore the Dark is doing its best to take out anyone who might rediscover it.

 

Probably a good thing the Tinkers are sheltering inside Seanchan lines.

 

Aye, the main problem I see is that while it could tie in well with their location it doesn't fit as well with their actions. Ambushing a column of troops doesn't seem like a good way to get to the Tinkers, and if they were hungry surely there were easier food sources around.

Perhaps they were simply a leftover from one of Semi's plans.

[GhenjeiBomber]

What about Graendal sending the troops? She was specifically ordered by Moridin to prevent a truce between Rand and the Seanchan. Her network of DF's is said to be huge... so she could know of the intentions / preferences of Tylee to work together with Perrin rather than slaughter one another...

[bushleague]

I don't think the numbers are going to be the problem for Randland.  It's the organization of the armies that you have to look at.  The DO and the forsaken have complete control over their followers, including shadowspawn, channelers and DF's.  You do have to factor in those people not doing their tasks but they are generally afraid of punishment for failure and excited about the glory and power they will get if they succeed.  When you look at Randland, he only has control over a couple nations (carhien (sp), Tear, Illian, the Aiel clans and the legion of the dragon).  Of those, only the aiel can be completely trusted to follow orders.  That leaves the south and west in the hands of the Seanchan, Murandy and Gheladian (sp) in chaos and disorder, Andor with Elayne and the borderlands currently defenseless.

 

Some of these problems Rand will work on before the battle.  but what about putting generals in charge?  If one of Rand's generals like Bashere or Ituraulde or even mat give orders to Andorians and they say "hey, only our captain general can tell us what to do", or if the seanchan team up with Rand and they only listen to their generals, it creates problems.  Yes, you could have different armies on different flanks, but lack of unity under one central leader is always a negative.  And don't tell me Rand will be in charge... he can barely keep control of his armies now and he likely will be heading for Shayol Ghul, not leading armies.

 

The Darkside on the other hand have powerful generals, like Demandred and Ishy/Mori who can give orders that EVERYONE will have to obey.  One leader giving all the orders based on information coming from the different frontlines is always a plus. 

 

Organization means Dark- 1, light - 0 before the battle even begins.

[1eejit]

Yet the Light wins easily when it comes to mobility.

[bushleague]

Yet the Light wins easily when it comes to mobility.

 

The Ways help the Dark and when the light has no centralized order, travelling is not as huge as it seems.  If you don't know where your allies are going to be because you're controlling only your own people, its tough to coordinate attacks.  Travelling is important, but its not going to decide the battles.

 

On top of this, the light will be pushing into the blight where the dark has homefield advantage, plants that can kill by touching, monsters that can come out of nowhere, etc... and even if it the dark pushes forward, the borderlands are more like neutral ground.  No matter what, it always seems like the darkside has some kind of advantage with the exception of the numbers where we can't be sure.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Yet the Light wins easily when it comes to mobility.

 

The Ways help the Dark and when the light has no centralized order, travelling is not as huge as it seems.  If you don't know where your allies are going to be because you're controlling only your own people, its tough to coordinate attacks.  Travelling is important, but its not going to decide the battles.

 

On top of this, the light will be pushing into the blight where the dark has homefield advantage, plants that can kill by touching, monsters that can come out of nowhere, etc... and even if it the dark pushes forward, the borderlands are more like neutral ground.  No matter what, it always seems like the darkside has some kind of advantage with the exception of the numbers where we can't be sure.

 

IIRC, Aviendha identified a couple of the artifacts Elayne has as a kind of radio or mobile phone.

 

Now IF ( big huge enormous IF ) anyone realizes the value of that and IF Elayne either gives birth or reaches some state where she can reliably work with the Power, then there's a possibility that she could make more and IF she did the Light could have a way to coordinate troop movements.

 

The nasties in the Blight ... well, that's anybody's guess.

[Muad Cheade]

Yet the Light wins easily when it comes to mobility.

 

The Light had that in the War of Power yet they still found themselves on the losing side. In every major war against the Shadow, going toe-to-toe, pound-for-pound with Shadowspawn is a losing battle. The Light was almost wiped out in the War of Power, and it took centuries before the tide turned in the Trolloc Wars. Like RJ said, it'll take a knock-out punch like it did in the AoL.

 

I think it will end up being a hammer & anvil technique like the one talked about in the beginning of New Spring, except Rand will be there to help Lan. I think with Rand's revelation at the end of TGS, he's going to realize too that Lan is his friend, and he can't abandon him like this. I also think, however, that Rand is going to be surprised with how many troops Lan was able to gather through Nynaeve spreading the word through the Borderlands. I'm sure people who aren't even Malkieri will ride to the Gap to fight with Lan, and since the Borderlanders are slacking off down south.. I can imagine the majority of the Borderlanders riding with Lan.

 

There are not nearly enough men for him to succeed as is. Most men of his generation are on the downward slope and the regular troops the Borderlanders have will not all leave their posts as they all have a sense of duty. I don't think thatwas the kind of change Rand undertook. He did not turn back into his old farmboy self. He only realized: 1). what his purpose was. 2). why he's doing it. 3). how he is to do it (without the CK).

 

As an aside, any thoughts as to what the purpose of that Trolloc raid was?  To take out Tylee specifically?  Perhaps some of the several hundred WO damane she captured?  (Presumably she brought the majority of them with her overland?) Just curious as to what others were thinking.  Again, I hadn't seen this discussed elsewhere or referenced in any of the Q&A reports.

 

They were flown on raken so they would not have been involved in the skirmish.

 

The Trolloc attack surprised me - when I read the passage from tGS I took it as a not-so-small group of Trollocs.  To me, it seemed those were the forces that had been picking off her scouts too that Tylee first mentioned with Mishima (sp) before he got the arrow through the neck.

 

The scouts weren't being killed. They were seeing men who would vanish. Those were Myrdraal scouting her army.

[Knobs Mahoney]

[quote author=Monitor link=topic=50667.msg1365670#msg1365670 date=1258830899

1. Shara. Most of the world has likely been slowly eliminating the genes for channeling by male channelers dying and female channelers generally avoiding having children. Shara on the other hand may very well have increased or or at least preserved the genes for channeling. So the percentage  who may channel, and even average strength, in Shara may be far, far higher than in other nations.

 

Something I wanted to point out: Brandon confirmed in the metaphysics thread that the ability to channel is connected to the soul of the person, and since all people are just someone else reborn...it would seem to me that the speculation in the book by one of the characters that they are "culling" humanity's ability to channel by not breeding male and female channelers might be erroneous.

[Rocky_Outcrop]

The current population is much smaller than it once was, who is to say that the souls are being reborn? Who is to say there is a finite number of souls?

 

You might be right knobs, but I don't think the person was strictly wrong in what they were saying in the short term.

[CTM]

[quote author=Monitor link=topic=50667.msg1365670#msg1365670 date=1258830899

1. Shara. Most of the world has likely been slowly eliminating the genes for channeling by male channelers dying and female channelers generally avoiding having children. Shara on the other hand may very well have increased or or at least preserved the genes for channeling. So the percentage  who may channel, and even average strength, in Shara may be far, far higher than in other nations.

 

Something I wanted to point out: Brandon confirmed in the metaphysics thread that the ability to channel is connected to the soul of the person, and since all people are just someone else reborn...it would seem to me that the speculation in the book by one of the characters that they are "culling" humanity's ability to channel by not breeding male and female channelers might be erroneous.

 

If I remember, the evidence given for the belief of the character was that there were less Aes Sedai. We know of thousands of channelers that they didn't.

[Davian93]

I think many are far overstating Rand's numbers and far understating the Shadow's numbers.

 

For one, Rand most definitely DOES NOT have 500K Aiel left.  He didn't even have that many when he finished off Couladin in FoH.  He's lost thousands since then to the Bleakness, battles, etc. He has closer to 380-400 K.  He'll "hopefully" have Elayne's 200K (mostly House levies, jumped up farmers, and a core of real soldiers), The Borderlanders 200 K in the south as well as likely that same amount still on the Border (i.e. "enough to stop anything short of another Trolloc Wars"), Lan's gathering of forces (I'd guess 50-100 K and that including all the farmers heading north as shown in the prologue) and the forces of Cairhien, Tear, Illian, and the Seanchan...oh, and the 50K that Ituralde still has...and whatever survives the cleansing of the Black Tower confrontation with Taim for channelers.  Egwene will toss in her 100 K plus 400-500 AS.  The 1.5 million estimate is generous.

 

We don't know what the Murandians are doing...there's been suggestions that Demandred is in charge there (personally I doubt it, Roedran (sp?) seems like a Red Herring to me.  We don't know how many the Seanchan actually have left.  They were bloodied pretty badly by Ituralde and Rand.  

 

The Shadow will like far outnumber the Light when it comes to Trollocs.  100 K was a drop in the bucket and basically cannon fodder.  I would guess in the millions and millions along with thousands of Myrdraal, hundreds of Dreadlords (still think that's what Demandred is really doing, not taking care of Murandy) and other assorted creatures.  

 

RJ said that the Light is losing and losing badly...that they have a "puncher's chance" to win the Last Battle.  Thus, they will likely go into thinking they're gonna die.  And morale will likely go down when Rand is killed before the end of the Battle.  Granted he'll somehow come back (the viewings, prophecies, Finn foretellings all hint at this but its not definite).  He might not die during the Last Battle but it seems like he will.

 

Either way, it will SEEM to be really bad for the Light...just a "memory of light" remaining if you will. ;)

[1eejit]

Yet the Light wins easily when it comes to mobility.

 

The Light had that in the War of Power yet they still found themselves on the losing side. In every major war against the Shadow, going toe-to-toe, pound-for-pound with Shadowspawn is a losing battle. The Light was almost wiped out in the War of Power, and it took centuries before the tide turned in the Trolloc Wars. Like RJ said, it'll take a knock-out punch like it did in the AoL.

During the War of the Power the Dark had control of huge provinces with massive armies of human Darkfriends as well as Trollocs. Additionally both sides used wards against travelling - even if that is used again by the Dark then the Light still has greater mobility behind their own lines, as now the vast majority of the Dark armies are Shadowspawn... unless Demandred actually does have the Sharans.

The Aiel managed to go toe-to-toe against Shadowspawn pretty damn successfully during their part of the Trolloc wars.

[Rocky_Outcrop]

I think many are far overstating Rand's numbers and far understating the Shadow's numbers.

 

For one, Rand most definitely DOES NOT have 500K Aiel left.

 

Don't quote me on this but I am 100% sure that the entire population of Aiel was about 1 m before Rand, total number of warriors was 500k - including Shaido. This comes from the Glossary. I am speaking from memory so I could be wrong, but I would be willing to bet that Rand never had 500k

[Davian93]

I think many are far overstating Rand's numbers and far understating the Shadow's numbers.

 

For one, Rand most definitely DOES NOT have 500K Aiel left.

 

Don't quote me on this but I am 100% sure that the entire population of Aiel was about 1 m before Rand, total number of warriors was 500k - including Shaido. This comes from the Glossary. I am speaking from memory so I could be wrong, but I would be willing to bet that Rand never had 500k

 

You would be correct.  Rand had in the low to mid 400s after the battle of Cairhien at best.  It has gone down significantly since then.  Just in the time that Rand was prisoner to Galina a "thousand more Aiel throw down their Spears a day to the Bleakness" or something close to that.  Plus continued losses in battle.

[Solarian]

We do have the previous and unexplained wipeout of a whole Tinker caravan that Mat came across long, long ago.

 

I had always assumed that had been done by the Shaido in an act of anger or provocation, given Rand's revelation at the end of TSR.