Mat's Luck and Channeling

[Alghar Khan]

But he got luckier after picking it up. So it suppressed his luck but still made him luckier?

Evidence says the effects of the Dagger grew worse over time.

 

We know that on two occasions, both relating to his dagger, his luck increases from what it was before.

We don't know that they relate to the Dagger. The second occasion could indicate that the Dagger had halted/suppressed/scrambled his luck.

 

[3] we haven't got every moment of Mat's covered

We don't need it. His thoughts are clear on the matter. Six to eight tosses in a row in his favour when his luck is in, in Shienar and on the road to TV. Consistent. Not suprtessed, not varying, not increasing, the same.

I take it you must be talking about the quote "He had always won more than he lost, as far as he could remember, and there had been times with Hurin, and in Shienar, when six or eight tosses in a row won for him. Tonight every toss won. Every toss.". It doesn't say which times with Hurin he was referring to. Even if it were on the road to TV, his luck could still have been twice that which it was before, and he probably wouldn't have noticed the difference. If the taint of the Dagger halted his luck, then it's plausible that he didn't experience much of a difference. Even if his base-line luck was on the rise.

[Mr Ares]

But he got luckier after picking it up. So it suppressed his luck but still made him luckier?

Evidence says the effects of the Dagger grew worse over time.

Evidence also says his luck didn't change.

 

We know that on two occasions, both relating to his dagger, his luck increases from what it was before.

We don't know that they relate to the Dagger.

Yes, we do.

 

It doesn't say which times with Hurin he was referring to.

It doesn't matter. It doesn't mention any change.

Even if it were on the road to TV, his luck could still have been twice that which it was before, and he probably wouldn't have noticed the difference.

He wouldn't notice a difference between winning six to eight tosses in a row, and twelve to sixteen? No. The heights of his luck were contant in that period, and later, after the Healing, the highs were higher. Now, stop ignoring the evidence.

[Thor]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

[OptimusPrime]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

 

Meaning what exactly?

[Cillian]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

 

Because Perrin and Rand have their abilities that way does not mean Mat is the same.

 

Rands ability to channel does not come from being ta'veren.

Perrin being a Wolfbrother does not come from being ta'veren.

Therefore (using your logic) Mat's luck does not come from being Ta'veren.

 

;)

 

[Mr. Dragon]

 

Because Perrin and Rand have their abilities that way does not mean Mat is the same.

 

Rands ability to channel does not come from being ta'veren.

Perrin being a Wolfbrother does not come from being ta'veren.

Therefore (using your logic) Mat's luck does not come from being Ta'veren.

 

;)

 

 

This assumes that luck is an inborn trait, your logic is flawed.

[Hybrid]

 

Because Perrin and Rand have their abilities that way does not mean Mat is the same.

 

Rands ability to channel does not come from being ta'veren.

Perrin being a Wolfbrother does not come from being ta'veren.

Therefore (using your logic) Mat's luck does not come from being Ta'veren.

 

;)

 

 

This assumes that luck is an inborn trait, your logic is flawed.

Clearly you miss the point...

Cillian is using Thor's "logic" to "prove" that Mat's luck doesn't come from being ta'veren.

[Mr. Dragon]

I agree that that being ta'vern isn't the reason why Rand can channel or Perrin is a wolfbrother but both of these abilities are inborn and are likely to be part of the reason why the pattern made them ta'vern. Mat's luck isn't inborn and so can't be looked at in the same way.

[kamros]

I agree that that being ta'vern isn't the reason why Rand can channel or Perrin is a wolfbrother but both of these abilities are inborn and are likely to be part of the reason why the pattern made them ta'vern. Mat's luck isn't inborn and so can't be looked at in the same way.

 

wait a second, why couldn't it be inborn? j/w

[dholm]

It could. It could be an example of old barriers weakening, in the same way it applies to wolfbrothers (and sniffers, for that matter). It could be an inborn talent. The dice in his head, which certainly has nothing to do with ta'veren, suggests it might -- but we just don't have even a single piece of evidence that supports that conclusion. At least with the dagger and with ta'veren, we have something.

[Alghar Khan]

Evidence also says his luck didn't change.

No, it doesn't. We haven't been given any specifics. The dagger could have halted his luck, even if we had been given anything.

 

We know that on two occasions, both relating to his dagger, his luck increases from what it was before.

We don't know that they relate to the Dagger.

Yes, we do.

The first occasion could be due to him becoming a major player in the Wheel's consideration. The second occasion could be due to the taint of the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck. So, you (repeatedly) saying "yes, we do" does not mean that we do know.

 

It doesn't say which times with Hurin he was referring to.

It doesn't matter. It doesn't mention any change.

It isn't specific. It doesn't say that there couldn't have been any change. You read way to much into that line of thought that Mat is having. He is a careless amnesiac, not an ambitous book-keeper. If his luck was twice that which it was before, then he would simply experience some more occasions with 6 or 8 tosses in a row. With luck being expected to come and go in waves, this wouldn't have raised anyones eyesbrowes. Mat's least of all. Plus, he is an amnesiac. He said that there "were times when 6 or 8 tosses in a row" went his way, meaning that it wasn't all the time. So it doesn't say that there couldn't have been any change in apparant luck.

 

His base-line luck could well have been on another level, if the Dagger held him back in some way. As was made likely by his marked increase of luck when he was freed from the effects of the Dagger.

 

Even if it were on the road to TV, his luck could still have been twice that which it was before, and he probably wouldn't have noticed the difference.

He wouldn't notice a difference between winning six to eight tosses in a row, and twelve to sixteen? No. The heights of his luck were contant in that period, and later, after the Healing, the highs were higher. Now, stop ignoring the evidence.

He would not experience twelve or sixteen tosses in a row if his luck was made twice that which it was before. He would experience more episodes with 6 or 8 tosses in a row. It wouldn't be a lot more tosses in a row. If that happened, his luck would be much more than twice that which it was before.

[Durinax]

Quote

Quote

Even if it were on the road to TV, his luck could still have been twice that which it was before, and he probably wouldn't have noticed the difference.

He wouldn't notice a difference between winning six to eight tosses in a row, and twelve to sixteen? No. The heights of his luck were contant in that period, and later, after the Healing, the highs were higher. Now, stop ignoring the evidence.

 

He would not experience twelve or sixteen tosses in a row if his luck was made twice that which it was before. He would experience more episodes with 6 or 8 tosses in a row. It wouldn't be a lot more tosses in a row. If that happened, his luck would be much more than twice that which it was before.

The way I think of mat's luck (other than on the freaky lucky occassions) is that his average luck increased so he experiences less times of low luck but his high amounts remain constant, so like his original was 0-8 and his luck after was 6-8 (numbers generated randomly)

[Mr Ares]

your evidence are your own imagination.

No, they're in the books. And the thread.

i don't care about evidfence,

That doesn't surprise me in the least.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

You grasp of logic is undiminished, I see.

 

Evidence also says his luck didn't change.

No, it doesn't.

Yes, it does.

 

The first occasion could be due to him becoming a major player in the Wheel's consideration.

So he became a major player once he picked up the dagger?

The second occasion could be due to the taint of the Dagger halting/suppressing/scrambling his luck.

No it couldn't.

So, you (repeatedly) saying "yes, we do" does not mean that we do know.

No, us knowing is why I say it.

 

It isn't specific.

It is specific enough. No change, despite covering the entire period of his luck.

If his luck was twice that which it was before, then he would simply experience some more occasions with 6 to 8 tosses in a row.

No, he wouldn't. His luck comes in waves. When his lcuk is in, that's what he can expect.

meaning that it wasn't all the time.

Waves.

 

if the Dagger held him back in some way.

It didn't. Nothing suggests that it did. Drop it.

 

He would not experience twelve or sixteen tosses in a row if his luck was made twice that which it was before.

12-16 is double 6-8. So yes, he would.

It wouldn't be a lot more tosses in a row.

When his luck increased the second time it did. Now, are you ready to stop trolling?

[Alghar Khan]

It is specific enough. No change, despite covering the entire period of his luck.

It does not say that there were no changes. He thought "6 OR 8 tosses". Assuming he knows his statistics (unlikely), 6-7 could be for before the Horn and 7-8 could be for after. He could even have had more episodes of luck after than he had before. Even if there were no changes, the Dagger could have halted his luck.

 

If his luck was twice that which it was before, then he would simply experience some more occasions with 6 to 8 tosses in a row.

No, he wouldn't. His luck comes in waves. When his lcuk is in, that's what he can expect.

I see you feel the need to misquote both me and the books at the same time. I think I understand why. It is 6 or 8 ... His luck may come in waves, but he hasn't thought anything about the statistics of how those waves occured. It wasn't usually 6 or 8 tosses, that's what we know. Meaning that his luck was not in the extreme range. Nowhere near the luck that he experienced after being healed from the effects of the Dagger.

 

12-16 is double 6-8. So yes, he would.

Oh my ...

 

It wouldn't be a lot more tosses in a row.

When his luck increased the second time it did. Now, are you ready to stop trolling?

"When his luck increased the second time", what about it? Do you think you got a point there? Something that speaks in your favor? Actually that would be the opposite. Are you ready to stop trolling?

[Mr Ares]

It does not say that there were no changes.

No, it just mentions his luck in Shienar and on the road to TV as being the same.

Even if there were no changes, the Dagger could have halted his luck.

The complete absence of evidence does make for a compelling case.

 

It is

...neither here nor there, unless you maintain 7 throws in a row isn't possible for Mat.

 

"When his luck increased the second time", what about it?

His luck increases from 6-8 tosses in a row to always winning. No mention is made of the frwequency of these bouts of luck altering.

Something that speaks in your favor?

Considering nothing so far brought up speaks in yours...

Are you ready to stop trolling?

You first.

[Alghar Khan]

No, it just mentions his luck in Shienar and on the road to TV as being the same.

Not in the editions published so far. I fear you will never see such an edition. Sorry.

 

The complete absence of evidence does make for a compelling case.

That's my point exactly. He was always lucky. He got a teeny-weeny bit luckier around a time after he left his place of birth. Much later he got extremely lucky. That does not prove your case. It doesn't prove my case either. Both scenarios are possible with the evidence we got so far.

 

His luck increases from 6-8 tosses in a row to always winning. No mention is made of the frwequency of these bouts of luck altering.

Yeah, he got extremely lucky only when he got healed from the devastating effects of the Dagger. Up until then he hadn't experienced anything even remotely comparable.

 

[Durinax]

Mr.Ares the times when mats luck jumped was when he was healed/attempted to be healed from the dagger. Moraines attempt coincides with Shienar and after till TV then the full healing coincides with the extreme luck of TV, this is obvious evidence for the dagger being a suppressant of luck rather than a luck amplifying effect

 

it is almost as if mat's luck can be represented by a hose that is used to pump air, and the dagger's effect clogged the end, and moraines healing poked a hole through the end causing a bit to escape and the full healing caused a 'tidal wave' of luck caused by the exessive pressure being released

[Thor]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

 

Meaning what exactly?

 

meaning fain couldn't even kill rand with it.

[OptimusPrime]

your evidence are your own imagination.  and frankly, i don't care about evidfence, i care only about facts.

 

fact: rand and perin's abilities are due to their genes/ta'vereness.

 

therefore, mat's luck is also due to the same mechanic, and not some pathetic dagger which can't even kill a wimp of a wanabe swordsman.

 

Meaning what exactly?

 

meaning fain couldn't even kill rand with it.

 

You ignore most of the things from the books. The dagger didnt kill Rand because the evil in the old wound supresses the new evil wound. Damer Flynn confirms this, and Cadsuane comments on both wounds being the same after the Cleansing. Look at what the dagger did to Kisman, and then see if you can call it a pathetic dagger, and also maybe you should read the books before judging characters. Rand is not a puny swordsman and you know it. Also, Rands swordsman skill level has no impression on his vulnerability to the dagger, so dont link them together either.

 

This is getting too silly. People dodge around the truth way too accurately for them to not know it for the truth it is, and they do it either because it proves them wrong or for the sake of arguing.

[Durinax]

This is getting too silly. People dodge around the truth way too accurately for them to not know it for the truth it is, and they do it either because it proves them wrong or for the sake of arguing.

are you speaking of posts like Thor's or the main discussion?

[OptimusPrime]

This is getting too silly. People dodge around the truth way too accurately for them to not know it for the truth it is, and they do it either because it proves them wrong or for the sake of arguing.

are you speaking of posts like Thor's or the main discussion?

 

Thors. He said he doesnt care about evidence, only facts, when we need evidence to know the facts.

[Cillian]

 

Because Perrin and Rand have their abilities that way does not mean Mat is the same.

 

Rands ability to channel does not come from being ta'veren.

Perrin being a Wolfbrother does not come from being ta'veren.

Therefore (using your logic) Mat's luck does not come from being Ta'veren.

 

;)

 

 

This assumes that luck is an inborn trait, your logic is flawed.

 

I was pointing out how Thors argument made no sense, nothing more.

 

--------------------------------------------------------

The Dragon Reborn - Chapter 30 - The first Toss

 

"He knew he was lucky. He could always remember being lucky. But somehow, his memories from Emond's Field did not show him as lucky as he had been since leaving. Certainly he had gotten away with a great deal, but he could remember also being caught in pranks he had been sure would succeed. His mother had always seemed to know what he was up to, and Nynaeve able to see through whatever defenses he put up. But it was it was not just since leaving the Two Rivers that he had become lucky. The luck had come once he took the dagger from Shadar Logoth. He remembered playing at dice back home, with a sharp eyed, skinny man who worked for a merchant come down from Baerlon to buy tabac. He remembered the strapping his father had given him, too, on learning Mat owed the man a silver mark and four pence.

'But I'm free of that bloody dagger,' he mumbled. 'Those bloody Aes Sedai said I was.'"

 

Combined with RJ's comment here:

"Question: In the Dragon Reborn, Lanfear visits Mat as he is recuperating from his one power surgery over the dagger. At one point she stretches out her hand towards him and he feels a tingle going over him, somebody interrupts them, and she turns her head and sobs, at about the same time a member of Black Ajah stole angreal and ter'angreal out of the tower cache, one of which was a ter'angreal that was known to have some effect on chance. So it was about this time that Mat's really really really weird luck and the dice rolling in his head began, is this a connection or coincidence.

 

Jordan: That is a coincidence. When they say that Mat has the Dark One's own luck, he can get as mad as he wants to, but in a way it is true. It wasn't a gift from Lanfear, though"

 

http://www.wotmania.com/faqtopic.asp?ID=192

 

Along with:

"Luck his soul and lightning his eye"

 

Lead me to believe that Mat always had some intrinsic luck, though no more than slightly above average at best before leaving the TR, with his uber-luck a result of the dagger and the subsequent attempts to heal and the successful healing from it.

 

Acquiring the dagger, becoming bonded with it and Moiraines attempt to heal him providing the first boost. After which he discovers his luck for the first time in Sheinar (TGH Chpt 3).

TGH Chpt 7 - Moiraine, Siuan, Leane and Verin try to heal Mat with the aid of an angreal, which they can't do without the the dagger which was stolen. - No chance to see if there's another jump in luck after this (that I recall anyway).

Then complete severing from the dagger supplying the last jump to super luck.

 

Nothing supports suppression of his luck.

[Durinax]

uhm cillian your posts support the dagger suppression rather than deny it.

Each attempted healing would have damaged the link between the dagger and mat providing a 'jump' in luck

[Mr Ares]

No, it just mentions his luck in Shienar and on the road to TV as being the same.

Not in the editions published so far.

Yes, in the editions published so far.

 

That's my point exactly.

You have a point beyond simply trolling and refusing to look at the evidence? I find that rather implausible.

He got noticeably luckier after he got the dagger.

Corrected for you. And the dagger is really the only case with any evidence to support it. You have nothing. Even if you don't think the dagger has much, something is better than nothing, therefore as the dagger is the most supported theory, it's the best we have.

 

the times when mats luck jumped was when he was healed/attempted to be healed from the dagger.

Nothing to support that, nor the variations in his luck after the Healing.

This is obvious evidence for the dagger being a suppressant of luck

No, it isn't. It's not a fact, just a guess, not supported by evidence, and leaving some facts unexplained. Nothing supports the dagger suppressing his luck.

 

the dagger's effect clogged the end

More like the dagger punched the hole in the first place. Not suppressing, increasing.

 

meaning fain couldn't even kill rand with it.

And being Healed by three people had nothing at all to do with that. Even the first said that if she had been a split second later, Rand might have died. Then one of the best AS Healers having a go.

 

uhm cillian your posts support the dagger suppression rather than deny it.

No, it doesn't. Nothing does. There is no evidence to support a suppression of Mat's luck. None at all. Nothing. No evidence. Evidence is absent. There is none. I hope I make myself clear.

[Durinax]

it has the same evidence as the dagger luck theory, it is all based on timing

You say that the dagger increased luck after pickin it up - first place we saw mat gamble/use this luck is in Shienar gambling AFTER moraine tried to heal him making it plausible that it suppressed his luck a bit after the daggers influence was decreased in the attempted healing

mats most lucky moment in TV was when he was fully healed from it - no more daggers influence to suppress his luck, so like in my example theres is a release in the built up luck.

 

but of course these examples mean nothing according to mr ares even though the coincide with events in the dagger luck theory and in fact explain them better. Mat's quote could even be explained away as fishing or at very least he blaims the dagger cause thats the major change that happened before his luck