Death Note Mafia! Game On!

[Toy and Minion]

Well, things just went up a notch...

[Liathiana]

Wow...one day and we're already at 11 pages!

 

It's too early for me to vote, I want to see what happens before Monday however...as much as I can see Mynd's point with DJ, I can understand being overemotional in a Mafia game ( >.> ) and I have to say I find Mynd trying to use probability to make us all think him innocent, suspicious.

 

Hmmm...we'll see what happens.

[Hybrid]

Hybrid, the chance of being Mafia isn't even 50/50.  It's closer to 15/3.75 (You do the math, as I bore with maths quickly)

I understand, I was just using the coin analogy to make it simpler, if possible.

 

So, you flip a coin three times.  Each time you flip the coin, it only has a 50% chance of landing tails.  That means that the chance the third flip will land tails is 50%.  It doesn't matter what the previous flips have been or even how many flips have occurred.

 

For example, I flip a coin twice and it lands heads twice.  The chance the third flip will land tails is 50%.  I flip a coin twice and it lands tails twice.  The chance the third flip will land tails is 50%.  See what I mean?

 

Back in the terms of this game, Mynd has as much chance of being mafia this game as DSage does, or myself, or Dark Justice.  There isn't some cosmic meter that records how many times you've been mafia in the last few games and adjusts the probability accordingly.  For this game, the probability of ANY player being mafia is # of mafia roles / # of total roles.

[Myndrunner]

Hybrid, I think you are missing the point.  I am not referring to the probability that one flip will come up tails, which is 50/50.  I am referring to the probability that you will flip three tails in a row.  That is not 50/50 but more like 1/8.  But don't take my word for it.  Flip a coin three times and see how many times you can get three tails in a row.

 

The whole point of this ratio gambit began in response to Dark Justice's frantic attempt to discredit my gameplay.  He was screaming at me for getting innocents like Talya killed in the last game.  Well, of course I was getting innocents killed because I was Mafia in that game.  In this game, I am not mafia.

 

His responses have not been about finding the mafia, they have been about discrediting my accusations rather than defending himself.  I'm surprise this is not setting off other people's scum radars.  Those of you who have been reading the Death Note Wiki know who I am and those of you who are truly innocents should know that I am also innocent based on my earlier posts.  Those of you who don't, there is only one reason you haven't caught my hints....and that's because you didn't get the same PM information as we did. 

 

Like WIN CONDITION!

 

 

[Toy and Minion]

Mynd, what I'm saying is that you are over simplifying the chance that you might be mafia.  Drop the coin-toss analogy, it doesn't work for mafia.  Hybrid, I believe, put it best.

 

According to Cubarey, there is a good chance of their being teams (both Innocent and Mafia), which I actually believe.  It makes sense with the info I got.  So, I doubt all of us innocents got the same win condition.

 

And also with this new info (multiple teams), I can now believe Mynds claim more easily.  You're still not off the hook, though, Mynd.  Remember that.

 

And I still don't know about DJ.  It seems as if an outburst like that has been building for a while.  It could be quite legit.  Or, it could be a ruse.

 

I'm not going to jump into anything.  I want to go through this with clear thought.

[CUBAREY]

Hybrid, I think you are missing the point.  I am not referring to the probability that one flip will come up tails, which is 50/50.  I am referring to the probability that you will flip three tails in a row.  That is not 50/50 but more like 1/8.  But don't take my word for it.  Flip a coin three times and see how many times you can get three tails in a row.

 

Mynd statistical theory states that if a coin is flipped enough times the chances of it coming down head or tails is both 50%. It does not imply in what order the coins will fall heads or tails. Moreover, your example that the chances of a coin falling tails three times in a row (or you being chosen Mafia three times in a row) is flawed because the statistical "proof" is based on the total amounts of coin tosses or games you play. For instance you could be chosen Mafia in three straight games but a townie the next nine and the chances that you will be chosen Mafia a statistically valid number of times over a 50 game span is not effected.

 

However, I do agree that DJ overreacted. Whether this is because he is scum or he simply dislikes your style of play is still an open question in my mind. However, I will admit that I am leaning to the conclusion that whatever his dislike for your game style he was too defensive to be innocent. SO I will Point the Finger of Suspicion on him but am not ready to vote to lynch him.

 

 

[Myndrunner]

Perhaps we should consider a mass character reveal.  We don't necessarily need to reveal abilities or any mason connections that we may have, but by revealing our Death Note characters could serve a couple purposes, namely...it would begin to shed some light on who is Kira and who isn't.

 

Those of you reading the Death Note Wiki should know who I am by now.

[Toy and Minion]

I should probably get reading that then.

 

After breakfast.  :D  See you then.

[Toy and Minion]

I didn't think there would be that many characters.  T.T

[CUBAREY]

So who is up on a mass reveal?

[peacesells]

So who is up on a mass reveal?

 

Who would a mass reveal help?  I'm pretty sure whoever is mafia would lie and if all the townees were truthful then the mafia could easily find the power roles and pick them off at night. 

 

Maybe I'm interpreting what Mynd is proposing but it doesn't seam town productive to me.  Mynd...could you elaborate some more...is there an angle I'm not seeing here?

[mmeeshal]

So who is up on a mass reveal?

That would be interesting... I'd do it if enough people wanted to!

 

I'm going to read the Death Note Wiki....

 

Yeah... I don't know what to think.

 

I mean, I understand, DJ, that Mynd is being provocative.  I get that.

 

But, Mynd, I do see the point of what you're doing...

 

And, unfortunately, DJ, you're kind of acting suspicious....

 

So, I'm going to

 

[glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

[glow=red,2,300]Dark Justice[/glow]

 

In all this fray I think meesh kinda slipped this in there unnoticed.  States she doesn't know what to think but votes anyway?  Apparently the Jedi Mind trick worked here  ;D ;D ;D

 

Anyway..I'd love to hear more on Meesh's argument for this vote.  

 

Well, my argument...  I don't know much about how Mynd plays the game.  I don't know Dark Justice at all.  However, it seemed to me that when Mynd jumped all over DJ's supposed scumminess, DJ blew up.  I'm going on intuition here, for the time being, and I got the feeling that DJ was being a bit more vehement than he really needed to be.  I realize that Mynd could be up to something; I realize that DJ could just be frustrated from before; I understand that I have no true, real idea of what's going on.  It's too early to tell.

 

Having said that, I stand with my decision.  I don't intend to change it.  I think that Dark Justice was, for whatever reason, caught slightly off guard, and never recovered his footing.  Which speaks of scumminess to me.  :)

 

Hope that made even one shred of sense.  :-\

 

[CUBAREY]

So who is up on a mass reveal?

 

Who would a mass reveal help?  I'm pretty sure whoever is mafia would lie and if all the townees were truthful then the mafia could easily find the power roles and pick them off at night. 

 

Maybe I'm interpreting what Mynd is proposing but it doesn't seam town productive to me.  Mynd...could you elaborate some more...is there an angle I'm not seeing here?

 

It's almost certain that there are multiple cop roles and possiblibly multiple healers and other roles. As I believe that there may be competing teams of cops, and or solo cops it might very well help to identify all the cop roles (those in teams could be vouched for by other members) so we do not vote to lynch each other. Also each character has a name, the Kiras would have to falsely claim that they are someone else which could possibly be refuted by mutiple players.

[peacesells]

 

I understand that I have no true, real idea of what's going on.  It's too early to tell.

 

I understand your thought process but given the statement above I'd think an [glow=red,2,300]FOS[/glow] would be more appropriate...but to each his own.

 

To me it really comes across as a new (scummy) player reaching for a reason to vote but can't really back it up.  

 

My "intuition" tells me to [glow=red,2,300]FOS: Meesh[/glow]

[mmeeshal]

*shrugs*

 

That does make sense, about the Finger of Suspicion, peace.

 

I forgot about it, truth be told.  I can honestly say that this is my first EVER online Mafia game.  I know the main details, but I do tend to forget the others.... :-\

 

But it does seem kind of silly to keep switching my vote, or unvoting, so I'm just going to leave it there.

 

I guess I wasn't aware that I HAVE to have solid, pointed evidence to vote for someone.  I actually have to say that it's just that I agree with what Mynd says about DJ.  He says it better than I can.  :)

[Vemynal]

lmao ive played a lot of mafia (though this was a long time ago) and I've seen that most votes are usually bandwagons or have little reason to them day 1 so i doubt meesh is one of the uber evils, but i could be wrong.

 

I mean my first game i was evil and i played it up so much everyone thought i was goofing off and never lynched me so we shouldnt dismiss her either.

 

Perhaps we should consider a mass character reveal.  We don't necessarily need to reveal abilities or any mason connections that we may have, but by revealing our Death Note characters could serve a couple purposes, namely...it would begin to shed some light on who is Kira and who isn't.

 

Those of you reading the Death Note Wiki should know who I am by now.

 

I consider this a bad idea- and in fact with how im used to playing i dont know why people havent all bandwagoned mynd at this point O.o. we are talking about players revealing who they are to everyone, including the mafia. we dont have any confirmed healing roles so that could be dangerous (Im sure we have a couple but do we really wanan reveal them?)

 

as well as that the mafia arnt gonna be honest, they will claim no significant role or one of the special roles. In fact it might be a good idea imo if we do do a mass reveal for a couple people with insignificant roles to reveal as important characters like L as well just so the mafia isnt 100%, problem is that just kinda starts up a "im sparticus" situation where we dont have anyone to lynch then *but* people claiming important roles.

 

imo no mass reveal, i dont see how it would help things. and while i know what character ur hinting at being mynd- its still no proof

[mmeeshal]

I'm trying to read the Death Note Wiki... but I have no idea.... :-\

 

*waggles fingers around at Vemy*

 

You KNOW I'm evil, baby!  :D ;D ::)

[Dark Justice]

I dont agree with a mass reveal in this game. However if he majority is for, of course I will go along.

 

What has been written by someone is correct. I exploded, not just because of this game, but also for previous games. I have said Im sorry..

 

Mynd. I know what my PM says about win condition. But is it necisarily the same as other roles?

 

when Kira is anihilated, I win.

[Vemynal]

the question is, do the near, mello and L teams work together or do they win individually.

 

Mello and Near opposed each other from the very start almost as much as they did kira, so i could easily see both winning separately

[Dark Justice]

I have to go offline again Im afraid. And wont have more time today I think.

Im back again tomorrow, and Ill be here all day.

[mmeeshal]

Well, on that note, I'm gonna be gone tomorrow, and I may not get back into town by the time that Day 1 ends.  So, unless something happens while I'm online today to change my vote, my vote for DJ stands.

[peacesells]

I've been thinking a lot about Mynd's play style.  Although it can be infuriating when you are the target (pawn) of his accusations I can see the effectiveness of it.  First this playstyle plays well if he is townee or mafia because essentially he can play the same way and still get results.

 

If townee.  He can "beat the grass and startle the snakes" as he says and watch all the interesting responses that come about.  In this game, then I would suspect that he really isn't as convinced as he says he is that DJ is scum.  But..he is willing to see who takes DJ's side and who takes his side.  The mafia players would know if DJ is scum and might use this opportunity to try and discredit Mynd by commenting on his usual craziness.  We'll see multiple comments about his previous game.

 

For example:

 

LMAO

 

*wipes tears from his eyes*

 

Mynd...not working this time.  You forget, I modded when you were guilty, we had a lot of conversations.  You can't pull the wool over these eyes.

 

DJ, I feel for you man, but you did get a little over-emotional there.  I can understand though, I've done the same, recently.

 

Now, I'm not sure of anything, but I do know that Mynd is sure of himself.  And that can be dangerous.

 

Hmm...still going to hold off my vote.  I want to see how things play out.

 

If Mynd is mafia.  Then this same strategy can still work.  By attacking DJ he may be able to get a bandwagon vote on him.  

 

For example:

 

Yeah... I don't know what to think.

 

I mean, I understand, DJ, that Mynd is being provocative.  I get that.

 

But, Mynd, I do see the point of what you're doing...

 

And, unfortunately, DJ, you're kind of acting suspicious....

 

So, I'm going to

 

[glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

 

[glow=red,2,300]Dark Justice[/glow]

 

Or, he may be able to entice other townees to put forth weak arguments in defence of DJ thus making them easy targets for scum.

 

Example, I believe is a weak argument for thinking Mynd is scummy looking.

 

Fortunately there's something else interesting going on, and that's the whole interaction between Mynd and DJ.  It doesn't start with Mynd attacking DJ for the PM, it starts with Mynd making the suggestion that anyone who is allowed to communicate off-thread use quick topics.  That suggestion is putting me on guard.  Why make that suggestion if he's innocent?  

 

 

All that being said.  Mynd plays like he is a solo (puppet master)player regardless of his alignment.  As mafia, he will use someone (mafia or townee) to create confusion and instigate a mob mentality.  As a townee he'll use another player to create division looking for responses.  I wouldn't say this is anti-town, but it is Pro-Mynd.  

 

Since he is probably the most prolyfic player it really is important, imo, that we quickly establish who side he is on.  Personally, I am going to draw a bit from my poker playing experience and say he sounds like he is bluffing with the finder role bit.  I'd lean to him being scummy but my feeling isn't yet strong enough to even give it an FOS as I'll admit he is difficult to figure out.

 

Now I'm off to search for his easter egg.

 

 

[mmeeshal]

Hm, thanks for compiling all that info!  I've been sitting and thinking a lot about what Mynd is doing and whether I trust him or not... This helped me out a bit!

 

Also, what the heck IS an easter egg, in this context?

[peacesells]

Also, what the heck IS an easter egg, in this context?

 

Easter Egg is a commonly used term in software publishing that refers to secret stuff hidden in a game like cheats.  Mynd is saying that he has some info that confirms his alignment in one of his posts.

 

BTW..Mynd.  I have found your easter egg and you are either a townee or very clever.  Have you played "death note" before?

[Myndrunner]

Well, for starters.....  [glow=red,2,300]unvote[/glow]

 

Dark Justice is not 100% accurate....annihilate is too harsh a word for my goal, eliminate is perhaps more my taste.....but I am not as convinced of him being mafia as I was earlier. 

 

There were two Easter Eggs, one tells my win condition and the other tells my character name.  Seems like Peacesells got this one. 

 

On the mass reveal, Vemy just went to the top of my list.  If we mass reveal, then there will be a mad scramble for the mafia to come up with a character to bluff with, and with 15 players, the risk of them trying to bluff with a character that is in the game is too great.  If they choose a minor character, it will be seen as too unlikely.  Check out my bluff as Sparkplug in the Transformers Mafia game on Myndjack if you want a lesson in bluffing an obscure character. 

 

[glow=red,2,300]Vemy[/glow]

 

Oh, and i'll save you all the trip to Wiki.    I am Matsuda.