The Band of the Red Hand in TGS

[RobertAlexWillis]

Oh my yes.

 

Its every bit as effective as arguing (which is to say, not effective at all) and a lot easier.

[cloglord]

Charlz,

 

RAW is quite correct.  I do believe that Mat and the band will end up in Illian, here's the cliff notes, because I hate it when I make RAW sigh.

 

1.  Matt is currently up river from Illian, and down river from the Tower of Ghenji, he doesn't have any channelers with him that know how to travel, so I think that the river will be the most likely method of moving both himself, and the Band quickly.

 

2.  Mat is currently with Bayle, Illustrious Illianer riverboat captain.  I think that Doman still has a part to play, and that most likely means that his part will take place in some way connected to Illian.

 

3.  Mat is currently with Aludra, who we know will need some time and infrastructure to produce her dragons.  Since Illian has the largest non-seafolk shipyards and the largest Tannery in Randland, and since many of the chemicals needed for gunpowder are shared with the tanning and shipmaking industries, Illian seems like a likely choice for Aludra to go to work, being a short trip downriver from MAt/Aludra's current location and being a friendly nation and all.

 

4.  I believe that the Horn will end up in Illian before the end.  If the horn ends up in Illian, then Mat will too.  I believe this will happen because Verin has no good way of finding Mat, but could certainly make sure that the horn arrives in Illian with much pomp and fanfare, a pomp and fanfare that Verin could reasonably expect Mat to hear about regardless of where he is. Thus drawing Mat to the horn, instead of having to take the horn to Mat. In addition to this, I believe that Mattin Stepaneos, has a role to play in this (the whole pomp and fanfare bit,) and that is the reason why RJ didn't just kill him off.

 

5.  Illian is the dividing line between Rand controlled lands and the Seanchan.  If there is to be a truce borkered, I think that Illian is a likely place for it to happen, and I would assume that Mat would be pivotal to the final shape of Randland/Seanchan relations.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I hate it when I make RAW sigh.

 

Its OK cloglord.  Its actually become theraputic for me.  ;)

 

Without getting into the relative merits of the Horn going to Illian, let me comment on this one:

 

Illian is the dividing line between Rand controlled lands and the Seanchan.  If there is to be a truce borkered, I think that Illian is a likely place for it to happen, and I would assume that Mat would be pivotal to the final shape of Randland/Seanchan relations.

 

I actually think thats going to go down in the Tower, and that the reason Egwene will get pissed off at Rand is that she'll feel like he gives too much up with his willingness to make a truce that divides the land.  I doubt that Mat will be involved with anything but trying to pick the pieces up afterwards.

 

But I freely admit that is only one of several possibilities.  Its just the one I envision.

[Kaznen]

All this discussion about Elayne and the Band is intresting but no one has been able to explain why the Band would need to go to Camelyn.

[cloglord]

Raw,

 

....and how does that make you feel?

 

...and I forgot a point.

 

6.  Setalle Anan is with Mat, and her family is in Illian.  I think that Setalle Anan has at least a minor part to play yet in that it seems likely to me that she will be healed at some point.  If we assume that she will be trying to get back to her family, and that there will be some sort of resolution to her little plotline, then it seems likely that it will take place in Illian.  The most likely candidate for Setalle's healer is Damer Flinn, and since I believe(Don't quote me on this, I've not looked it up,) that he was last seen with Rand, I think that it is likely that Rand, Flinn, Anan, Mat, and Tuon will end up at the same place at the same time in the course of the last (3) book/s.  If that is the case the most likely place for that to happen is Illian.

[RobertAlexWillis]

All this discussion about Elayne and the Band is intresting but no one has been able to explain why the Band would need to go to Camelyn.

 

We already know they're headed Andor-way.  There's nowhere else for them to go.  They can't just set up in the countryside, or then they would strip it bare.  Including the countryside around Whitebridge.  Whitebridge's entire population is probably less than the whole Band.  Caemlyn is the only place big enough to support them.

 

Also, they're big enough that if they don't have Elayne's permission to hang around, she'd have to do something about them.  As soon as she hears they're in Andor, assuming she knows its the Band, she'll probably Travel out and "invite" them to Caemlyn, so she can claim that they're here to support her.  Which, in effect, they will be.

 

Plus, Mat made a promise about getting Elayne to Caemlyn safely.  He didn't mean to get left behind in Ebou Dar, and now that he's out, he'll want to make sure she got there safely.  You can bet he hasn't forgotten.  If he can't go personally, then sending the Band with instructions to help her out is the next best thing.  Its not like he can take them to the Tower of Ghenjei with him.

 

Raw,

 

....and how does that make you feel?

 

Quite relaxed, actually.  I'm brushing up on my recipes for crow.  I know you're not used to it, and I want to blunt the shock for you as much as possible.  ;D

[Kaznen]

RAW

 

What you siad made no sense.  The Band wouldn't drain the country side around Whitebridge because the twon is a major trade center.

 

And as far as sending the Band to Camelyne "just becsuse they might be needed"...

 

Say I'm in Barcallona(?) Spain and I decide it would be cool to fly to London so I go to the international airport to do that. 

 

Would I

A) Take a direct flight to London

B) Take a flight to Budapest then fly from there to London

 

It would be A.  Barcallona and London are major cities in Europe and the world so they would have many direct flights between them.

 

Now, I'm taking option A for my flight so

Would I

A) Have my bags travle with me or my direct flight to London

B) Have then sent to London via Budapest just in case of the off chance somebody I know but don't even like might need my bags before I get to London.

[MikeRiley]

Um ... trust was very much an issue.  You might want to re-read that sequence.  Only one of the four merc captains that Elayne hired was faithful (Hafeen Bakuvun).  The other three betrayed the Far Madding Gate (Evard Cordwyn, Rhys a'Balaman and Aldred Gomaisien).  See KoD ch 35.  Heck ... Evard Cordwyn was an Andoran, and still turned traitor; the only faithful one was Domani.

 

That was after the fact. Elayne sent out the Kin to collect every loyal Andoran they could find so that they could get rid of the mercenaries or set them to lesser tasks. It wasn't trust that was the cause - sure, that was on her mind too, but the real reason was because they were not Andoran and this was an Andoran conflict. Put another way, she didn't want to rely on strangers to keep Caemlyn and it would have been a bad move politically (Dyelin asks her about this somewhere, too). Keeping the mercs was seen almost as bad as having Rand's followers help her secure the throne. They were a last resort.

[RobertAlexWillis]

What you siad made no sense.  The Band wouldn't drain the country side around Whitebridge because the twon is a major trade center

 

What?  A major trade center?  Between where and where?  Whitebridge seemed big because Rand and Mat had never been anywhere other than Baerlon.  Its a small-to-midsize town in the middle of nowhere.  The main commerce in Andor goes up and down the Erinin.  Aringill is bigger than Whitebridge.  Whitebridge is slightly famous because it has a cool bridge.  Thats it.

 

And as far as sending the Band to Camelyne "just becsuse they might be needed"...

 

Say I'm in Barcallona(?) Spain and I decide it would be cool to fly to London so I go to the international airport to do that. 

 

Would I

A) Take a direct flight to London

B) Take a flight to Budapest then fly from there to London

 

It would be A.  Barcallona and London are major cities in Europe and the world so they would have many direct flights between them

 

Now, I'm taking option A for my flight so

Would I

A) Have my bags travle with me or my direct flight to London

B) Have then sent to London via Budapest just in case of the off chance somebody I know but don't even like might need my bags before I get to London.

 

What in the world does that have to do with anything?  The Band can go straight to Caemlyn as easily as to Whitebridge ... or are you comparing the Band to Mat's bags?  That's ... absurd.

 

Just because Mat needs to go to the Tower of Ghenjei asap doesn't mean it makes sense to take all or part of the Band with him.  Sending them to Caemlyn where they can be useful makes more sense than having them do nothing in the empty countryside north of Whitebridge.

 

That was after the fact. Elayne sent out the Kin to collect every loyal Andoran they could find so that they could get rid of the mercenaries or set them to lesser tasks. It wasn't trust that was the cause - sure, that was on her mind too, but the real reason was because they were not Andoran and this was an Andoran conflict. Put another way, she didn't want to rely on strangers to keep Caemlyn and it would have been a bad move politically (Dyelin asks her about this somewhere, too). Keeping the mercs was seen almost as bad as having Rand's followers help her secure the throne. They were a last resort.

 

And?  I don't see how any of that has any effect on trusting or not trusting the Band.  Elayne doesn't have the same issues to deal with now that she is Queen.  It completely changes her position.  Having a trustworthy, trained army, with a reputation in Andor and Cairhien for never losing, invited by her and answering to her while they are there?  That can do nothing but solidify her position.

[MikeRiley]

That's true, but the point I was arguing against was the idea that she would recruit them into the Queen's Guard. If there was a body of mercs in Andor they would still be treated as mercs. Elayne has reason not to add non-Andorans to the Guard, it would look bad on her that she had to enlist foreign aid.

[RobertAlexWillis]

That's true, but the point I was arguing against was the idea that she would recruit them into the Queen's Guard.

 

I never said that she would recruit them into the Guard.  There's no need to, they wouldn't go for it, and you're right that trying to add them to the Guard would be badly received.

 

Did someone say she would recruit them into the Guard?  ???  I must have missed that ...

 

 

 

[RobertAlexWillis]

Oh, I see it now.  DemandredFO said that on page one ... I think it was half tongue-in-cheek, but if not, then I disagree.  She can use them as a mercenary army, there to support her.  There's no way she'll try to put them in the Guard.

[erickm001]

Despite all the bickering and fights Mat has had with  Joline, Teslyn, Edesina, I think these Aes Sedai are now part of the Band. At least, Joline and Teslyn are. I don’t think they are going to leave. At the very least they will be very protective of THEIR Mat Cauthon, and make short work of any other Aes Sedai who attempts to molest him.

 

I could see other Aes Sedai showing up to join the Band. I’d love to see Bode show up. (That’s one of the reunions I’m looking forward to in the upcoming books.)

 

[CUBAREY]

Sending them to Caemlyn where they can be useful makes more sense than having them do nothing in the empty countryside north of Whitebridge

 

Why would Mat send the band to Camelyn, for all he knows Andor is still on the verge of civil war, their is proof that at least some Andorans would see the Hand as a threat and while Elayne might think about using them she would know that their loyalty is to Mat and not her and that what she believes necessary to have them due is counter to Mat's plans for them. Best to go someplace where they could continue recruiting and not face a real possibility of action that would reduce their numbers. Moreover, the Borderlanders were set to move South so the Hand would have to also have to be concerned with running into that army if they went towards Andors capital.

[MikeRiley]

As for why they would go to Caemlyn, not long ago there was a big dragonsworn army and an Aiel camp outside the city. Maybe they don't know it moved?

[cloglord]

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What you siad made no sense.  The Band wouldn't drain the country side around Whitebridge because the twon is a major trade center

 

What?  A major trade center?  Between where and where?  Whitebridge seemed big because Rand and Mat had never been anywhere other than Baerlon.  Its a small-to-midsize town in the middle of nowhere.  The main commerce in Andor goes up and down the Erinin.  Aringill is bigger than Whitebridge.  Whitebridge is slightly famous because it has a cool bridge.  Thats it.

 

You are quite correct that White bridge is not a major trade center, however that does not mean that large amounts of trade to not move by and through it.

 

It is in fact it is one of the major supply routes for the entire nation of Saldea.

 

Additionally, it looks like from the map, like whitebridge is possibly the only place that goods from Saldea could offload in any signifigant way before reaching Illian.  Riverboats need supplies right?  Lots of riverboats need lots of supplies right?

[RobertAlexWillis]

You are quite correct that White bridge is not a major trade center, however that does not mean that large amounts of trade to not move by and through it.

 

Actually, that is exactly the definition of a "major trade center".

 

It is in fact it is one of the major supply routes for the entire nation of Saldea.

 

The nation of Saldaea doesn't have "supply routes".  They grow their own food.  There are some trade routes, but the Band is going to have a big time bout of dysentery if they try to live off of ice peppers.

 

Additionally, it looks like from the map, like whitebridge is possibly the only place that goods from Saldea could offload in any signifigant way before reaching Illian.  Riverboats need supplies right?  Lots of riverboats need lots of supplies right?

 

And?  Its not as if there is a huge amount of trade between Illian and Saldaea.  We happened to see Bayle Domon.  That doesn't mean that there are "lots of riverboats", or that there is a huge trade relationship between Illian and Saldaea.  And unless there are literally thousands, then they wouldn't need supplies even approaching what the Band needs.

 

Why would Mat send the band to Camelyn, for all he knows Andor is still on the verge of civil war

 

Actually, Mat doesn't know anything about that.  But he does know that he promised Rand to see Elayne safely to Caemlyn, to have her take the throne.  If he does know about the civil war, then he'd be all the more likely to send the Band to help her.

 

The irony is that if he did that before she actually got the throne, it wouldn't go over well.  It will only work because she doesn't need them to get the throne, but they can help her secure her position now that she has the throne.

 

Elayne might think about using them she would know that their loyalty is to Mat and not her and that what she believes necessary to have them due is counter to Mat's plans for them.

 

I think I followed that sentence.  Elayne could use them as mercenaries, for as long as Mat was not with them, in the same way the Egwene made use of them while Mat wasn't with them.  (Not for the same functional reason, of course, I'm just talking about the kind of working relationship she could have with Talmanes.)

 

Best to go someplace where they could continue recruiting and not face a real possibility of action that would reduce their numbers.

 

Which is where, exactly?  They cant go south or west, those are Seanchan lands.  If they go north, into Andor, and stay with the permission of the ruling Queen, then Andor represents exactly what you just described.

 

Moreover, the Borderlanders were set to move South so the Hand would have to also have to be concerned with running into that army if they went towards Andors capital.

 

First of all, they don't know about the Borderlanders yet; certainly Mat doesn't, so if he sends instructions to the northern part of the Band he won't account for them.  Second, a run-in with the Borderlanders is exactly what I said was the most likely problem.

[Charlz Guybon]

Sending them to Caemlyn where they can be useful makes more sense than having them do nothing in the empty countryside north of Whitebridge

 

Why would Mat send the band to Camelyn, for all he knows Andor is still on the verge of civil war, their is proof that at least some Andorans would see the Hand as a threat and while Elayne might think about using them she would know that their loyalty is to Mat and not her and that what she believes necessary to have them due is counter to Mat's plans for them.

Because he knows Rand wants Elayne on the Lion Throne. If Mat still thinks she hasn't been crowned, it's even more likely that Mat will send the Band there to help her out. Don't you remember him gripping over having to "put a snip-nosed girl on the Lion Throne?

[Kaznen]

The only thing Mat about about with Elayne is that Rand cares about her.  Mat doesn't even like her.  He told her she would be going with him to Camelyn if he had to tie her in a sack.  His agreement with Rand was never about her getting the Lion Throne, Mat doesn't care who rule Andor.

 

When Mat left Salidar it was under the idea he would rejoin the army after Ebou Dar.

 

When Talmanes went into Altara looking for Mat it was under the idea he would leav the same way.  And Talmanes wasn't the only one with a feeling that Mat needed him, it was the whole Band.

 

So they would be in a position to help Mat ASAP and Camelyn is not that place.

 

And Bobby, get your copy of KoD and re-read a chapter called "The Golden Crane."  I know with the drama it is hard to get distrated but notice who the Malkri Nyn talks to?  Before she arrives who was he dealing with, an Illian merchant.

 

Now use you copy of KoD that you have in your hand and look at the map of Randland.  Whitebridge is the first port south of Saldaea.  Crews be mighty hunger by the time they reach that area.

 

And remember that Saldaea has to deal with Trolloc raids destroying farmland.  So they would need to import food and other nessecities from the south to make up for their loses.  And Bayle Doman in tEotW was a big deal because his was the first ship down that season.  When Perrin and Co. came to that same river, further south, in tDR there were three ships in port.

[RobertAlexWillis]

The only thing Mat about about with Elayne is that Rand cares about her.  Mat doesn't even like her.  He told her she would be going with him to Camelyn if he had to tie her in a sack.  His agreement with Rand was never about her getting the Lion Throne, Mat doesn't care who rule Andor.

 

I simply disagree with your assessment of Mat's character and motives.

 

When Talmanes went into Altara looking for Mat it was under the idea he would leav the same way.  And Talmanes wasn't the only one with a feeling that Mat needed him, it was the whole Band.

 

So they would be in a position to help Mat ASAP and Camelyn is not that place.

 

When Talmanes and the Band felt Mat "needing" them, its because he was going into a situation in which they could help: being chased by the Ever Victorious Army across Altara.  (That phenomenon is an interesting comment on ta'veren's ability to affect souls over long distances, by the way.)  There's nothing that the Band can do to help Mat at the Tower of Ghenjei.  There is not reason for them loiter in the wilderness doing nothing.

 

And Bobby, get your copy of KoD and re-read a chapter called "The Golden Crane."  I know with the drama it is hard to get distrated but notice who the Malkri Nyn talks to?  Before she arrives who was he dealing with, an Illian merchant

 

I never said there was NO trade.  I said that Whitebridge is not a MAJOR trade spot, and that what is traded through there is not huge amounts of food.  Did you notice that he was buying jewels?  The Band can't eat that.

 

Also, I would prefer that you don't call me Bobby.  Its actually a little stronger than that; this is the edited version, but being called Bobby really ticks me off.  You could literally punch me in the stomach and get less reaction. 

 

The condescension is annoying too, although much more common here.

 

Now use you copy of KoD that you have in your hand and look at the map of Randland.  Whitebridge is the first port south of Saldaea.  Crews be mighty hunger by the time they reach that area.

 

Yes.  Crews of 15-30, who stay for a day or two, then head south.  Not an army of 30,000 who will be staying indefinitely.  There's a difference.

 

And remember that Saldaea has to deal with Trolloc raids destroying farmland.  So they would need to import food and other nessecities from the south to make up for their loses

 

You're kidding, right?  Saldaea has been dealing with Trolloc raids for its entire existence, and if they had to import food, they wouldn't bring it up the river Arinelle.  River trading over that distance is for small, rare valuables, like ice peppers or gemstones (which just happens to be exactly what we've seen being traded).  They would import food (if they had to) from Tear brought by the Sea Folk.  You did remember that Illian has a dreadful food shortage right now, right?  They have to import from Tear.  The Sea Folk ships can carry more and move faster than any riverboat, and yes, thats true even when they sail around the coast, and the riverboat has to row UP-river.

 

If you're going to be condescending, you'd better know what you're talking about.  In this case, you clearly don't.

 

And Bayle Doman in tEotW was a big deal because his was the first ship down that season.  When Perrin and Co. came to that same river, further south, in tDR there were three ships in port.

 

OMG.  FOUR SHIPS!!!!! Of course they'll have the supplies for 30,000 men in Whitebridge.  How clumsy of me.  ::)

[Charlz Guybon]

The only thing Mat about about with Elayne is that Rand cares about her.  Mat doesn't even like her.  He told her she would be going with him to Camelyn if he had to tie her in a sack.  His agreement with Rand was never about her getting the Lion Throne, Mat doesn't care who rule Andor.

 

If Mat gets her to Caemlyn and she doesn't win the Lion Throne what's the point? Obviously he planned to help her get the throne.

[Kaznen]

When Rand sent the Band to Salidar Mat was annoyed because the whole thing upset their plans for the war with Illian.  Mat cares nothing about politics, he has said it often enough and proven it.  Justice yes, but he doesn't care about nobles and who governs what.

 

And when I say he doesn't like Elyne it isn't a knock on his character, it's a knock on her's.  She looks down (literally)on him and, what he does, and how he does it.  She thinks, despite him being Ta'veren, that he is a peasant who thinks to much of himself.  That is view on all non-nobles, it was how she was brought up, the only expections are Nyn, Egwene, and Rand.  Nyn and Egwene because they are AS and Rand because he is hot.

 

The wonder girls thought Mat was leading the Band because Rand told the Band Mat was in charge, when he first arrived at Salidar they thought he was just a soldier, not even an officer.  Even Egwene thought this.

 

On the journey to Salidar she tried belittling him and bullying him and that didn't work.  She was afronted because he didn't behave as a commoner to a noble should, and this was an Andoran to his Queen at that.

 

Then she started inspecting his troops and telling him what to do about what she saw, that really made Mat mad because she was saying he didn't know how to lead an army, and as much as he hates doing it, he keeps tight disapline and takes good care of his men so she may as well as slapped him in the face.

 

She lloked at the time as a way to train him "to be useful to Rand" because she only saw a peasant farmer, and where she comes from all generals have to be of noble birth.

 

She continued on like this until Bridgit and Avi set her down a peg.

[MikeRiley]

Mat wouldn't care if Elayne was on the throne. He gave his word to Rand to get her to Caemlyn and that's what he cares about. If he's going into Andor, he would stop there to make sure she's still safe so he could be done with the whole thing.

 

Crews won't be hungry by the first port out of the borderlands unless their captain really sucks.

[cloglord]

Quote

You are quite correct that White bridge is not a major trade center, however that does not mean that large amounts of trade to not move by and through it.

 

Actually, that is exactly the definition of a "major trade center".

 

Not exactly, Illian is a major trade center and it supplies trade for an entire nation.  Whitebridge is a trade hub or a trade crossroads, call it what you wish, but it could easily supply a number of people.  The band does not make up any were near the population of a nation

 

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It is in fact it is one of the major supply routes for the entire nation of Saldea.

 

The nation of Saldaea doesn't have "supply routes".  They grow their own food.  There are some trade routes, but the Band is going to have a big time bout of dysentery if they try to live off of ice peppers.

 

it does if it need supplies of Iron or coal or aluminum.  Not every nation produces everything it needs.  I bet there would be a lot of starving Kuwaiti's if it weren't for their oil.

 

Quote

Additionally, it looks like from the map, like whitebridge is possibly the only place that goods from Saldea could offload in any signifigant way before reaching Illian.  Riverboats need supplies right?  Lots of riverboats need lots of supplies right?

 

And?  Its not as if there is a huge amount of trade between Illian and Saldaea.  We happened to see Bayle Domon.  That doesn't mean that there are "lots of riverboats", or that there is a huge trade relationship between Illian and Saldaea.  And unless there are literally thousands, then they wouldn't need supplies even approaching what the Band needs.

 

I seem to remember that when the band left Carhein, they marched south and had 3 riverboats carrying their supplies for them.  Now if you say that the band now has 5 times more people in it then it did then, then I think that 15 ships would do, if only Mat knew and was traveling with someone who owns a lot of riverboats and who operates them on that river.....Oh wait he does.....

[cloglord]

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And remember that Saldaea has to deal with Trolloc raids destroying farmland.  So they would need to import food and other nessecities from the south to make up for their loses

 

You're kidding, right?  Saldaea has been dealing with Trolloc raids for its entire existence, and if they had to import food, they wouldn't bring it up the river Arinelle.  River trading over that distance is for small, rare valuables, like ice peppers or gemstones (which just happens to be exactly what we've seen being traded).  They would import food (if they had to) from Tear brought by the Sea Folk.  You did remember that Illian has a dreadful food shortage right now, right?  They have to import from Tear.  The Sea Folk ships can carry more and move faster than any riverboat, and yes, thats true even when they sail around the coast, and the riverboat has to row UP-river.

 

As the recipient of an advanced degree in History, a former professional agricultural historian, and simply as a resident of an agricultural state along the Missisippi River, I'd like to point out that food has ALWAYS traveled by river whenever and wherever there is one.

 

I take your point about having to row up river, however that does not mean that no food goes upriver on even a pre-steam riverboat.  You very rarely see an enmpty semi-going down the road, and you rarely see an empty boat going anywhere.  If Saldea has trade items then those trade items can and do go down river on river boats.  Those river boats did not arrive in Saldea empty though.  If Saldeans need books, then those boats will be loaded with books when they arrive, if they need lamp oil, then they'll be loaded with lamp oil.  If Saldeans need food, then they'll be loaded with food.  Yes it would take longer than it would for the seafolk, but what's the rush?  Were talking about non perishable foodstuffs here. 

 

Now this has gotten pretty far off on a tangent.  We arent't talking about supplying the band in Saldea, we are talking about supplying the band in Andor.  The simple fact of the matter is that with the world's food surplus in Tear, (for the time being,) moving through Illian, and potentially points beyond, it will be easier for Mat to supply the band the closer it gets to Illian, not the closer it gets to Andor.

 

If you're going to be condescending, you'd better know what you're talking about.  In this case, you clearly don't.

 

Or better yet don't condescend at all...

 

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And Bayle Doman in tEotW was a big deal because his was the first ship down that season.  When Perrin and Co. came to that same river, further south, in tDR there were three ships in port.

 

OMG.  FOUR SHIPS!!!!! Of course they'll have the supplies for 30,000 men in Whitebridge.  How clumsy of me.  Roll Eyes

 

I think that the point that was being made was that in the week or so between Doman's arrival and Moraine's arrival at least another 3 ships had shown up. If you figure that there were 3 ships docked, and that they stayed docked for an average of 2 days we are looking at a dozen ships that probably docked in Whitebridge between Doman's arrival and Moraine's.  Those are of course my estimates, but they don't even take into account the ships that potentially didn't stop at all.

 

We can take it one step further and assume that winter weather slows or stall river traffic in places further north along the river, and that when that weather warms up that there is a surge in the amount of pent up river traffic.  This was exactly the case that Doman was talking about in the first trip we see him on.  At this point in the story Randland has seen a sudden and freakish onset of winter that is only now begining to relent.  Sounds like there is likely to be some increased river traffic pretty soon...