pet theory: why the Reds turn against Elaida

[Charlz Fel]

One of the important obstacles to re-uniting the Tower is that, no matter how obvious it is that Elaida needs to be removed as Amyrlin (and no one now seems to support her outside the Red Ajah), the Reds will continue to back her up.  The following scenario occurred to me as one way to turn at least some of the Reds against Elaida:

 

When Elaida sees how Egwene behaves in attending her, she blames Silviana, the Mistress of Novices, for failing to break Egwene.  Consequently, she orders Silviana demoted to Accepted, something that worked before with Shemerin.  We know, from her discussion with Egwene, that Silviana does not believe Elaida has the power to do this; in fact, Egwene's inquiry caused Silviana to speculate that it only worked with Shemerin because Shemerin herself accepted the order and moved into the Accepted's quarters.  Thus, Silviana will refuse to accept this demotion, and at least some of the other Reds will side with her, breaking their unanimous support of Elaida and opening up other options.

 

Obviously this is just speculation, but it would be like RJ to place a conversation in such a way that it is entirely appropriate at the time, but has greater significance later on.  Any thoughts?

[erickm001]

I like it. Everything is setup for it just that way.

[Dreadlady]

Very good!

[Charlz Fel]

Thanks!

[Cockta]

Are you Brandon Sanderson in disguise?

[DhaiMon]

Are you Brandon Sanderson in disguise?

Does he need to be?

 

The Reds cannot simply be dissolved, that's for certain. Red's a cool color, and the "rebels" should show more consequence there than Elaida did concerning the Blue.

 

I want the Reds to become the Questioners/Thought Police/Commissariat of channelers in general. Would be darned cool.

 

Hard women with a hard job. Cool.

 

:D

[ROB_88]

Are you Brandon Sanderson in disguise?

Does he need to be?

 

The Reds cannot simply be dissolved, that's for certain. Red's a cool color, and the "rebels" should show more consequence there than Elaida did concerning the Blue.

 

I want the Reds to become the Questioners/Thought Police/Commissariat of channelers in general. Would be darned cool.

 

Hard women with a hard job. Cool.

 

:D

 

do you mean that they will be something like the Questioners/Hand of the Light are for the whitecloaks

[Charlz Fel]

Are you Brandon Sanderson in disguise?

Thanks for the compliment, but no.  "Charles" is my real first name, and "Fel" is the last name of one of the minor characters I most identify with (Herid Fel the philosopher).

 

The Reds cannot simply be dissolved, that's for certain. Red's a cool color, and the "rebels" should show more consequence there than Elaida did concerning the Blue.

 

I want the Reds to become the Questioners/Thought Police/Commissariat of channelers in general. Would be darned cool.

 

Hard women with a hard job. Cool.

 

:D

 

I agree that the Red Ajah is unlikely to be dissolved.  Although Siuan apparently set out after her stilling intending to destroy the Red Ajah, and recruited Logain on that basis, Egwene has resisted the motion to eliminate the color Red from her stole and bench.  Also, RJ seems to have been making an effort in the last books to show us that Reds can still be decent, with the examples of Pevara (Black hunter), Tarna (Elaida's Keeper, who came up with the plan for the Reds to bond Asha'man), probably Silviana, and possibly Sashelle (in charge of Rand's Aes Sedai in Carhien).

 

I have no good ideas about what the Reds will take as their Ajah's purpose, once they accept that Saidin has been cleansed.  An "interrogation unit" would fit well with the Ajah's reputation for nastiness, but as we see above, this reputation may not be entirely deserved.  Additionally, I can't see Egwene allowing such a thing.  Perhaps they will become some sort of "chief liaisons" between the White Tower and the Black?

 

[DhaiMon]

 

I agree that the Red Ajah is unlikely to be dissolved.  Although Siuan apparently set out after her stilling intending to destroy the Red Ajah, and recruited Logain on that basis, Egwene has resisted the motion to eliminate the color Red from her stole and bench.  Also, RJ seems to have been making an effort in the last books to show us that Reds can still be decent, with the examples of Pevara (Black hunter), Tarna (Elaida's Keeper, who came up with the plan for the Reds to bond Asha'man), probably Silviana, and possibly Sashelle (in charge of Rand's Aes Sedai in Carhien).

 

I have no good ideas about what the Reds will take as their Ajah's purpose, once they accept that Saidin has been cleansed.  An "interrogation unit" would fit well with the Ajah's reputation for nastiness, but as we see above, this reputation may not be entirely deserved.  Additionally, I can't see Egwene allowing such a thing.  Perhaps they will become some sort of "chief liaisons" between the White Tower and the Black?

 

I can see them becoming some sort of "extreme Greens" as well. Like them being the "experts" when it comes to "commanding" male channelers.

 

Although the "law" that will be set there will likely allow other Ajahs to have a go at male channelers as well. Or maybe there'll be the sole exception for those Aes Sedai that already bonded Asha'man.

 

Still, I keep my fingers crossed that Egwene will finally realize/be convinced that the Oath Road might be a good idea...however, it simply sucks. As it cuts down the women's possible age greatly and is no protection against Darkfriends and abuse at all, as we've seen.

 

I do keep my fingers crossed that Egwene and all Aes Sedai will come to realize this. I really, really do.

And of course keeping my fingers crossed for cool Reds wearing Comissar hats shooting "cowards before the enemy". :D

I do not think it likely, but something to the effect of the latter would be wicked cool. I'd be pleased. I'd laugh. *rofl*

[Alderthal]

Hmm, even though I like the idea, and it makes sense, it does seem kind of... anti climatic. "Yay! We are the Rebel Aes Sedai! We'll build an army to remove the stole from Elaida's neck, and still her! Let's choose a new Amyrlin, let's get a Great Captain! Let's build a huge army to beseige an island not even the greatest conqueror in the world has managed to conquer. We've trampled through countless lands, faced the snows of winter, seen the dark one break free, sent emissaries to the world powers in order to legitimize our claim, and here we are. BRING IT, ELAIDA!"

 

The Tower:- "Oh, Elaida's been deposed already. Sorry, come back next time we pick a crazy Amrylin!"

 

As for the Red Ajah, it's been stated a couple of times that they are the largest of the Ajahs, number wise at least. Anyone who tries to disband the Red is prolly gonna end up deposed.

[Shard]

Yes but I think the last thing Egwene wants is bloodshed in the Tower from Sister vs Sister. I can actually see Egwene garnering enough support within the Tower for the Halls outside and in to be able to combine again (The odd sitter theory about this). They may actually vote to depose Eladia and put in Egwene as the official Amerlyn Seat, I think more then anything they know they need to be whole again. Especially since Messana is there to drive them all apart. That's the next thing that needs to happen, I so want to see one of the Forsaken caught and executed Messana and Semirage are perfect candidates for this.

[Charlz Fel]

The Tower:- "Oh, Elaida's been deposed already. Sorry, come back next time we pick a crazy Amrylin!"

Great line! But I'm afraid I agree with Shard on this one.  No one wants bloodshed but the Black Ajah, if there is any possible alternative.  Also, the absence of a pitched battle does not make the army irrelevant; it is an important bargaining chip, especially now that the harbors are nearly closed.  Unless Elaida lets the knowlege of Traveling loose, the Tower Aes Sedai need Bryne's army to start letting supplies over the bridges.  Thus, they will have greater incentive to appease the rebels, for instance by deposing Elaida (which most of them probably want to do anyway, by now) and recognizing or raising Egwene.  Another thing that might come into play is the Black hunters, who need an Amyrlin they can trust.  They probably would feel more entitled to kidnap Egwene--who is, after all, a rebel--than anyone else who could conceivably fill this role (especially Elaida).

[Ava]

the red's don't all support elaida... the red ajah decision to bond male channelers shows tht red's don't all support elaida. even her keeper thinks she's a fool..

 

the reds don't say anything only to save their ajah from embarrassment not because they support her..

 

 

[Shard]

The Tower:- "Oh, Elaida's been deposed already. Sorry, come back next time we pick a crazy Amrylin!"

Great line! But I'm afraid I agree with Shard on this one.  No one wants bloodshed but the Black Ajah, if there is any possible alternative.  Also, the absence of a pitched battle does not make the army irrelevant; it is an important bargaining chip, especially now that the harbors are nearly closed.  Unless Elaida lets the knowlege of Traveling loose, the Tower Aes Sedai need Bryne's army to start letting supplies over the bridges.  Thus, they will have greater incentive to appease the rebels, for instance by deposing Elaida (which most of them probably want to do anyway, by now) and recognizing or raising Egwene.  Another thing that might come into play is the Black hunters, who need an Amyrlin they can trust.  They probably would feel more entitled to kidnap Egwene--who is, after all, a rebel--than anyone else who could conceivably fill this role (especially Elaida).

 

Plus I think that army will have GREAT significance if Seachan attack and especially when Tarmon Gaidin breaks out which should be soon. That Army will be there to protect Tar Valon, not destroy it. I think this is a brilliant tatic of Egwene's and I really hope that it works out the way she wants it.

[Alderthal]

The army was there in order to besiege Tar Valon. That plan has already fallen on its nose, since for one, only 1 port is closed off, the other can still be used. Another reason, is Beonin has taught Elaida how to travel, so they can, theoretically, bypass the siege.

 

This has entirely changed since Egwene was captured. Sure, the army is still there, and it's powerful, but it's been relegated to Plan B (aka, Egwene taking over the tower from the inside).

 

This would be interesting to read about, and not anticlimatic at all. What WOULD be anticlimatic was if the Reds decided to depose Elaida all by themselves without Egwene pushing them to it. Sure, the army will still be used for fighting the Seanchean, but oh man, talk about a bummer.

[Shard]

I have a feeling we're moving toward a scene where the entire Hall convenes (the rebel Hall and Tower Hall re-combined) and they do a vote for who they want the Amrylyn to be and to re-unify the Tower once more.

[Elgee]

The Tower AS seem to be well on their way to deposing Elaida by themselves, but when it comes to choosing a new Amyrlin, Egwene's army camped around TV will surely be in the back of everyone's minds.

[BladeMaster77]

I like your idea and your right it does seem like something RJ would have done, and probably did do. though I think that will be one factor another will be the fact that Eladia is being underminded already by her own Ajah with the bonding of men who can channel. I can imagine how pissed she will be when she hears about this. But I think that she will be killed off before she is kicked out of office.

[Jethro]

The shadow does not want to face the Ashamen head-to-head.  They believe that the bonding with the Reds will "calm them down".

 

If Im misunderstanding you post I apologise, but I disagree with the second part.

 

****KOD SPOILERS**** Just in case

 

 

 

 

Several things about KoD epilogue scream about Taims allegiance. When Taim said the words that name the chapter, IIRC those words weren't capitalised, because he said "Remember the old saying." There IS an old saying with those words as the last line, which is why they arent capitalised. Yet when Taim said it, the room  erupts in laughter. Mens laughter. Ashaman laughter. Why do they think its funny? Because they are all Darkfriends, and Taim just quoted the Great Lord himself, just told the good guys what their orders are, without the good guys even knowing it. Mesaana didnt want the Reds to bond Ashaman to calm the Ashaman down, because they are already on her side. Mesaana wants them to bond Ashaman because it goes against what they exist for! All Aes Sedai are wary of Ashaman barring Rands following, yet if the Red Ajah bond Ashaman it creates a permanent connection, forcing them to deal with each other right when theres everything else going on-the Tower split, Tarmon Gaidon on the horizon-and on top of that the first batch of Ashaman bound to Aes Sedai are Darkfriends, which gives Dreadlords-and even male Forsaken-an excuse to walk the halls of the White Tower.

[Charlz Fel]

We have a PoV from Tarna, (when Elaida tells her to have Egwene wait on her this evening--the beginning of the chapter "Waiting on Elaida") which makes it fairly clear that Tarna is not Black Ajah.  For instance, she wishes that Elaida would, to keep the Tower whole, not flaunt her former Ajah by wearing so much red.  The Black sisters have standing orders to split the Tower up as much as possible.

 

It is conceivable that Tarna could have been manipulated or Compelled to make the suggestion, but I don't think it is necessary.  She has seen a Black Tower recruiting party (we know this since she tells Pevara, and being neither Black nor Verin, she almost certainly cannot lie).  She knows that the original approach of the Red Ajah is no longer practical, and she is searching for some way her Ajah can maintain some portion of its purpose.  It does seem likely that Javindhra (sp? another Red Sitter) is Black, from the meeting we see of the Red Highest and Sitters, but she seemed more intent on driving a gap between Elaida and the Highest (under the cover of being Elaida's lapdog) than encouraging the plan.  I see there is some possibility that the Shadow has encouraged the plan (almost certainly at Taim's end, as Jethro points out), but I doubt Tarna is part of it.  I think that Taim saw "confusing" these Aes Sedai with the ones he was supposed to allow to bond Asha'man as an opportunity to sow chaos.

[DhaiMon]

We have a PoV from Tarna, (when Elaida tells her to have Egwene wait on her this evening--the beginning of the chapter "Waiting on Elaida") which makes it fairly clear that Tarna is not Black Ajah.  For instance, she wishes that Elaida would, to keep the Tower whole, not flaunt her former Ajah by wearing so much red.  The Black sisters have standing orders to split the Tower up as much as possible.

 

It is conceivable that Tarna could have been manipulated or Compelled to make the suggestion, but I don't think it is necessary.  She has seen a Black Tower recruiting party (we know this since she tells Pevara, and being neither Black nor Verin, she almost certainly cannot lie).  She knows that the original approach of the Red Ajah is no longer practical, and she is searching for some way her Ajah can maintain some portion of its purpose.  It does seem likely that Javindhra (sp? another Red Sitter) is Black, from the meeting we see of the Red Highest and Sitters, but she seemed more intent on driving a gap between Elaida and the Highest (under the cover of being Elaida's lapdog) than encouraging the plan.  I see there is some possibility that the Shadow has encouraged the plan (almost certainly at Taim's end, as Jethro points out), but I doubt Tarna is part of it.  I think that Taim saw "confusing" these Aes Sedai with the ones he was supposed to allow to bond Asha'man as an opportunity to sow chaos.

Fully agreed.

 

Tarna is too cool a character to turn out to be Black. Black Ajah sisters generally seem to be psychopaths or weaklings. Tarna is neither.

 

Tarna rules.

 

And I hope that the "Turning"-hammer won't come down on her. Or if it does, that she'll survive and serve as proof that "Turning" can be remedied. Would be my most fervent wish for her.

 

For Doesine I hope the same. Another fine Aes Sedai-character. Hope she'll survive all this as well. I like her. Very much.

[a5m]

I think Tarna is going to end up as Egwene's keeper. (Just some idle speculation.)

[Charlz Fel]

I think Tarna is going to end up as Egwene's keeper. (Just some idle speculation.)

 

Given how badly Sheriam has done (with the admitted difficulty of being tortured(?) by Arangar(?)), I'm inclined to agree that Tarna would be a better choice.  It would have to be as a result of some negotiations, however; Egwene has had no significant opportunity to see Tarna in action, and would be unlikely to choose her as a Keeper unless it were part of a deal to re-unite the Tower.  I'm actually inclined to think Egwene might give Silviana a position, either leaving her Mistress of the Novices rather than the Rebel one (whose name I can't remember), or perhaps even giving her the position of Keeper.

[CUBAREY]

Mesaana wants them to bond Ashaman because it goes against what they exist for! All Aes Sedai are wary of Ashaman barring Rands following, yet if the Red Ajah bond Ashaman it creates a permanent connection, forcing them to deal with each other right when theres everything else going on-the Tower split, Tarmon Gaidon on the horizon-and on top of that the first batch of Ashaman bound to Aes Sedai are Darkfriends, which gives Dreadlords-and even male Forsaken-an excuse to walk the halls of the White

 

This presumes that Mesaana knows that Taim and his cronies are darkfriends. This is only true if Taim answers to Mesaana or the Choosen to whom Taim answers to has told Mesaana about Taim's alligence. There is nothing in the books that indicates either is true and a lot (the mistrust between the Choosen) to indicate that the second is definately not true. The fact that we believe that Taim and his men are darkfriend's does not imply that characters in the story believe or suspect this. Indeed, the only character who can be said to possibly believe Taim to be a darkfriend is Logain (and we really don't know if Logain believes him to actually be a darkfriend or merely out for himself).

[mb]

It seems most probable to me that the tower would become united under Egwene; because of how Elaida got the stole.

About Keeper; unless Sheriam is convicted of some tower law or she retires, I think Egwene would not be allowed to pick another Keeper.  The Mistress of Novices position seems also connected to the Amyrlin position, though I am not certain.

 

There is no mention of Mesaana wanting Ashaman to be bonded to anybody.  The order comes from Tsutama who to my knowledge does not know Mesaana.

About Taim, there is no mention of him from the Forsaken; nor is there any indication of Mesaana & him knowing each other or not.  And there is no mention from any character of him being a darkfriend or not; the most any character says about him is that he is dangerous which does not necessarily mean he is a darkfriend.

If Taim reports to any of the Forsaken, these would be the most likely candidates::

-Moridin

-Demandred

-Cyndane

-Moghedien

-maybe Arangar