On the Seanchan attack of the White Tneower

[algspkr]

We all know that the Seanchan are going to attack the White Tower.  The general view of what is going to happen tends to be:

1. To'raken land on top of the White Tower and the attack begins

2. Elida is near the top so she is taken first

3. Egwene is somewhere near the top, but in a position that allows her to hide, so she knows of the attack but is not captured

4. Egwene rallies the rest of the Tower, and possibly the rebles to face the Seanchan

5. The two sides fight each other to a standstill

6. Rand meets with Tuon to get a truce and part of the deal is that collaring will stop

7. Rand and Tuon head to Tar Valon to end the battle

 

I accepted this general outline of the attack until my most recent read of TDR in which Egwene has the following dream:

Rand confronting her, and the women with her, and one of them was a Seanchan.

Now we know from a later dream that Egwene will be aided by a Seanchan woman, and these two are probably the same.  I am inclinded to believe that Tuon will take part in the attack on the White Tower (she did say she thought she would have her capital there) and during the stalemate of the battle will meet with Egwene and form an alliance.

[Blackmoore]

The only practical advantage the Randlanders have over the Seanchan are Ashaman and Gateways.  Matt/Aludra's dragons are in the mail, but not yet delievered.

 

It seems celar to me that the Seanchan will eventually learn to make Gateways and when they do, they will certainly use them to attack the Tower.  The Rebel AS are less vulnerable to that kind of attack, because they all know gateways themselves.  Among the Tower AS, only a handful know of Gateways. 

[Alderthal]

Hmm, I'm not really sure that the WT will be directly attacked by the Seanchean. Sure, the Seanchean threaten the WT, what with their beliefs of leashing damane, using the OP as a weapon, and their controlling roughly half of the known world. Even Tuon knows that the WT is one of the greater threats remaining to hold back the Corenne. Likewise, I'd definitely think the Seanchean and Tuon would be far more interested in consolidating their positions, in both Randland and their homeland, rather than fight a huge war with the OP that'll leave half if not more of their army dead (Mishima and Tylee did mention some sort of war fought in Seandar with 400 or so damane on each side, and from their conversation, it was a massacre).

 

I think the Seanchean threat to the WT is more of a political one. After all, what ruler would respect and listen to an Aes Sedai when they know they're being leashed like pets? Likewise, what ruler would dare when Rand offers them a truce and binds them to him.

 

Then again, who knows? Still, if TG is going to take roughly 20% of the book, the rest being used to complete all the side stories and get all the forces of Light and Dark set up for it, it seems kinda doubtful that chapters would be spent discussing a seanchean attack being repelled and all that.

[Hybrid]

I think Egwene's dream is pretty clear evidence that there will be an actual Seanchan attack on the Tower:

 

Crossroads of Twilight, Chapter 20 (In the Night)

A small white plinth stood centered in that circle, supporting an oil-lamp made of clear glass. The flame on that lamp burned bright and steady, without flickering. It was white too. Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny, flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling.

[Sabio]

It probably will happen but in a pratical sense wouldn't make sense right now with the rebellions they been having in Randland, Rands army massing against them and the rebellion back home.  So to me they don't seem to be in a position to attack the white tower.  They can't expect anymore men from home since the rebellion and doesn't seem like they have that many to spare for an attack. 

 

Don't forget Egwene's dream where she is about to be beheaded and Gwayn must make a choice that will either save her life or let her die.

[algspkr]

I am sorry, I do not have any books on me but TDR, but I will try to list the approximate locations of the locations where the attack is foreshadowed.

 

One of the early Tuon PoV's she thinks something about the White Tower being far more dangerous than prevously expected due to the "weapon" used by Elayne, you know when she accidently nuked a farm.

 

After Tuon is kidnapped there is a PoV of a Death Watch Gaurdsman in the chapter called "A Tale of a Doll" I think, in Winters Heart.  He looking at a map of Tar Valon when a seeker comes in and mentions it.  The gaurdsman responds with something like "I did well against men who could channell and so it was felt that I would have some insite into fighting women."  I may have this a bit off, but it is accurate.

 

The most recent piece was in the prologue of Knife of Dreams during Suroth's PoV.  She receives news of Ituralde and orders the majority of the raken sent to Tarabon.  Her rival in Ebu Dar says that he does not object to raken being sent so long as the to'raken remain, as a delay in the attack they have been alotted to cannot be allowed.

 

I am sorry I do not have better locations, or actual quotes, but I do know that the base of what I have said is accurate.

[Alderthal]

Well, the dream is ambigious enough. It could just mean that the Seanchean would 'shake' the white tower (which they already have). Hell, the ravens could just mean the Forsaken, after all, there are two closeby (Mesaana and Aginor). Anyhow, I suppose we will see.

[Shaidar_Rannow]

you know maybe it is the forsaken. Agnior will be going to Messana to bring her into the Mordin camp I would guess. Grenadeal(sp) was told she could not go her own way by SH Messana will not doubt be held in this regard. She may not want to just waltz over to bow to Mordin, she may freak and agnior will have to F*** her up, thus shaking the tower. Yeah two forsaken could definalley do some damage to the WT. Let the Lord of Chaos rule I guess.

[Toy and Minion]

I personally don't think the attack will happen before TG.

 

Nicola (sp?) spoke a fortelling:

 

Lord of Chaos, Chapter 14: Dreams and Nightmares

 

"...The great battle done, but the world not done with battle.  The land divided by the return and the guardians balance the servants..."

 

Obviously "guardians" and "servants" mean Asha'man and Aes Sedai, respectively.  The return means the Seanchan.  And the great battle is TG.  That's my translation anyways.  Notice how she mentions the Last Battle is over BEFORE she mentions the land divided by the Seanchan.

 

It could be taken as just being in random order, but I don't think so.  And "the land divided by the return" could refer to what the Seanchan have done so far - Taking Tarabon, Amadicia, and Altara - but I'm keeping that option open.

 

Remember, RJ was planning a side novel about Mat and Tuon.  I think thats when the Seanchan-Tower struggle was going to be played out to the degree you're thinking of.

 

I'm probably wrong, though.  Just offering another view.  Take it or leave it.

[Mr Ares]

Hell, the ravens could just mean the Forsaken, after all, there are two closeby (Mesaana and Aginor).

Aginor is nowhere near the Tower. He's dead. And it is not the Chosen:

Suddenly a pair of birds flashed out of the mist, two ravens as black as night. Streaking across the spire-top, they struck the lamp and flew on without so much as a pause. The lamp spun and wobbled, dancing around atop the plinth, flinging off droplets of oil. Some of those drops caught fire in midair and vanished. Others fell around the short column, each supporting a tiny flickering white flame. And the lamp continued to wobble on the edge of falling.

 

Egwene woke in darkness with a jolt. She knew. For the first time, she knew exactly what a dream meant…the Seanchan attacking the White Tower. An attack that would shake the Aes Sedai to their core and threaten the Tower itself. Of course, it was only a possibility. But the events seen in true dreams were more likely than other possibilities.

 

- Crossroads of Twilight, In The Night

 

Remember, RJ was planning a side novel about Mat and Tuon. I think thats when the Seanchan-Tower struggle was going to be played out to the degree you're thinking of.

Set 10 years after TG. The Seanchan were preparing for the attack in KOD. You're suggesting they prepare for an attack but decide to postpone it for a decade.

 

you know maybe it is the forsaken. Aginor will be going to Messana to bring her into the Moridin camp I would guess. Grenadeal(sp) was told she could not go her own way by SH Messana will not doubt be held in this regard.

Mesaana skipped the Cleansing and was raped by SH. I don't think it will be necessary for Aginor to be returned from the dead again to "F*** her up". Oh, and did anyone mention Aginor was dead?

[Hybrid]

Aran'gar is Balthamel.  Osan'gar is Aginor.  So Aginor has returned to the grave and probably ain't coming back.  Also, two ravens represent the Seanchan.  And if the Forsaken did intend to attack, they would use the Black Ajah as well.  Yet there is no mention of anything other than two ravens.

[Toy and Minion]

Set 10 years after TG. The Seanchan were preparing for the attack in KOD. You're suggesting they prepare for an attack but decide to postpone it for a decade.

 

Preparing to attack and getting to the attacking are two different things.  And after TG, I think the Seanchan would have to take a step back and regroup, so to speak.  So ten years isn't such a wild leap.  There were fortellings about Rand being born on the slopes of Dragonmount and the things he would do hundreds of years before the events took place.

 

You're probably right though.  I'm sure we'll find out next Fall.

[Luckers]

3. Egwene is somewhere near the top, but in a position that allows her to hide, so she knows of the attack but is not captured

 

My belief is that following the upcoming dinner where Egwene is supposed to serve Elaida she will so humiliate Elaida that Elaida will have her sent to the cells and will plan to execute her. I believe this will put her in a position to liase with the BA Hunters at the beginning of the attack and through them pull as many sisters out of the Tower to join with the Rebels in order to launch a counter-attack. I think it will be Tarna that learns of the attack, and will warn the Tower, and ultimately go to Egwene--I suspect that she will be with Elaida but that Elaida will be too drunk and won't listen, and that Tarna will be forced to flee leaving Elaida.

 

Otherwise i agree with the way you listed it.

 

I accepted this general outline of the attack until my most recent read of TDR in which Egwene has the following dream:

 

Quote

Rand confronting her, and the women with her, and one of them was a Seanchan.

 

Now we know from a later dream that Egwene will be aided by a Seanchan woman, and these two are probably the same.  I am inclinded to believe that Tuon will take part in the attack on the White Tower (she did say she thought she would have her capital there) and during the stalemate of the battle will meet with Egwene and form an alliance.

 

Actually we don't know that these two are probably the same. For starters the first woman is just a single Seanchan woman, second represents an army led by Tuon, not Tuon herself.

 

My guess is that the first is a Seanchan woman who will join the Aes Sedai, or atleast supports Egwene. That dream is a show of consolidation, and i don't see Tuon standing with Egwene against Rand. I only see Tuon standing with Egwene against the Shadowspawn which is what i think the second dream refers too.

 

Specifically i think that the Shadowspawn with assault Tar Valon and press them hard--the Seanchan will hold the Tower, Egwene and the Aes Sedai the city. The city will be close to falling but the Seanchan won't help. Tuon arrives after having met with Rand and leads the Seanchan forces against the Shadowspawn besides Egwene.

 

The instance with facing down Rand comes later on, i think.

 

It seems celar to me that the Seanchan will eventually learn to make Gateways and when they do, they will certainly use them to attack the Tower.  The Rebel AS are less vulnerable to that kind of attack, because they all know gateways themselves.  Among the Tower AS, only a handful know of Gateways. 

 

The attack will come through to'raken, not gateways.

 

Hmm, I'm not really sure that the WT will be directly attacked by the Seanchean.

 

Unfortunately the attack is already underway. Through Perrin we know that the to'raken have already been gathered together in order to ferry the assault forces to the Tower, and Galgan states that the attack must not be delayed by anything. Therefore i do not seem them hesitating once the full forces are gathered. Galgan's statement, and his refusal to give Suroth any to'raken (thus showing that they were already in use) takes place 17 days prior to the last Egwene scene. To'raken can travel upwards of 100 miles in a day, which means they could attack the Tower as soon as the same day that we last saw Egwene.

 

Remember, RJ was planning a side novel about Mat and Tuon. I think thats when the Seanchan-Tower struggle was going to be played out to the degree you're thinking of.

 

No, the attack is already in play. The outrigger series probably dealt with Seanchan culture dealing with the revelations about damane, and with reconquering Seanchan itself.

 

Obviously "guardians" and "servants" mean Asha'man and Aes Sedai, respectively.  The return means the Seanchan.  And the great battle is TG.  That's my translation anyways.  Notice how she mentions the Last Battle is over BEFORE she mentions the land divided by the Seanchan.

 

I doubt it refers to TG. The sequence its placed in, as you say, predates events that have already occured--TG is not yet done, therefore it refers to some other great battle. Probably Dumai's Wells.

 

 

[Mr Ares]

There were fortellings about Rand being born on the slopes of Dragonmount and the things he would do hundreds of years before the events took place. You're probably right though.

Bit of a difference between Foretelling and preparing for an attack. And I'm almost certainly right, but that's normal. Considering they were manoeuvring troops into postion, this is a bit more than just making plans. And if the Seanchan were forced to delay for TG, it's quite possible they would never get around to the attack. Losses taken at the LB forcing delays, the need to reconquer Seanchan, changing opinions on channelers, such as the revelation that sul'dam can learn to channel...If the Seanchan attack doesn't come in AMoL, it won't come.

[algspkr]

I accepted this general outline of the attack until my most recent read of TDR in which Egwene has the following dream:

 

Rand confronting her, and the women with her, and one of them was a Seanchan.

Now we know from a later dream that Egwene will be aided by a Seanchan woman, and these two are probably the same.  I am inclinded to believe that Tuon will take part in the attack on the White Tower (she did say she thought she would have her capital there) and during the stalemate of the battle will meet with Egwene and form an alliance.

 

Actually we don't know that these two are probably the same. For starters the first woman is just a single Seanchan woman, second represents an army led by Tuon, not Tuon herself.

 

My guess is that the first is a Seanchan woman who will join the Aes Sedai, or atleast supports Egwene. That dream is a show of consolidation, and i don't see Tuon standing with Egwene against Rand. I only see Tuon standing with Egwene against the Shadowspawn which is what i think the second dream refers too.

 

Specifically i think that the Shadowspawn with assault Tar Valon and press them hard--the Seanchan will hold the Tower, Egwene and the Aes Sedai the city. The city will be close to falling but the Seanchan won't help. Tuon arrives after having met with Rand and leads the Seanchan forces against the Shadowspawn besides Egwene.

 

The instance with facing down Rand comes later on, i think.

You may be right.  Yours is certainly a more logical explination.  The only issue I have with it is that the only Seanchan likely to become iniates anytime soon are Bethamin and Seta (I think, the two sul'dam with Mat anyway), and I don't see Egwene's dream containing people of little imeadiate importance.

Hmm, I'm not really sure that the WT will be directly attacked by the Seanchean.

 

Unfortunately the attack is already underway. Through Perrin we know that the to'raken have already been gathered together in order to ferry the assault forces to the Tower, and Galgan states that the attack must not be delayed by anything. Therefore i do not seem them hesitating once the full forces are gathered. Galgan's statement, and his refusal to give Suroth any to'raken (thus showing that they were already in use) takes place 17 days prior to the last Egwene scene. To'raken can travel upwards of 100 miles in a day, which means they could attack the Tower as soon as the same day that we last saw Egwene.

I do not remember evidence of a Seanchan attack from Perrin, oh well I'll remember that there is and try to pay more attention this time through, probably in November.

 

[RAND AL THOR]

In response to Luckers' suggestion that the 'great battle' is not Tarmon Gaidon- I am 100% sure that it is.

 

'The great battle done but the world not done with battle' heavily suggests that the great battle involved the 'world' too. I don't think it can be anything other than Tarmon Gaidon.

 

I never before considered the idea that Egwene's Official Amyrlin Takeover and Rand facing her may actually come after TG. Who knows.

 

And yes, Aginor is still alive I suppose. His soul exists in a different body so part of his new incarnation is still Aginor.

[Sabio]

And yes, Aginor is still alive I suppose. His soul exists in a different body so part of his new incarnation is still Aginor.

 

No he is dead dead.  He died again during the battle when Rand was cleansing the male half.  It is unlikely the DO will give him a 3rd chance.

[RAND AL THOR]

And yes, Aginor is still alive I suppose. His soul exists in a different body so part of his new incarnation is still Aginor.

 

No he is dead dead.  He died again during the battle when Rand was cleansing the male half.  It is unlikely the DO will give him a 3rd chance.

 

Oh wasn't that the other one? Sorry, my bad.

[Toy and Minion]

Well, when it turns out I'm wrong, I'll apologize.  ;D

[Luckers]

The only issue I have with it is that the only Seanchan likely to become iniates anytime soon are Bethamin and Seta (I think, the two sul'dam with Mat anyway), and I don't see Egwene's dream containing people of little imeadiate importance.

 

Mmm, true. Perhaps it refers to Egeanin. She at least is effective, and she may not be able to become Aes Sedai, but she might involve herself in some way.

 

Or maybe it refers to a Seanchan woman we don't know yet. Or maybe even to Alivia--it depends on what Rand was trying to achieve when Egwene opposes her. Still, i don't see it being Tuon.

 

I do not remember evidence of a Seanchan attack from Perrin, oh well I'll remember that there is and try to pay more attention this time through, probably in November.

 

It's in KoD. Here.

 

Tylee began. "I need to replace six raken, Captain, and eighteen morat'raken. And a full company of Groundlings. The one i had is somewhere in Amadacia heading west, and beyond finding."

 

Faloun winced. "Banner-General, if you have lost raken, you know everything has been striped to the bone because of...." His one eye flickered to Perrin, and he cleared his throat before going on. "You ask for three quarters the animals i have left. If you could possibly do with fewer, perhaps only one or two."

 

And later.

 

"What sent all the raken away?" he asked.

 

"We should have come here second or third." She replied swinging into the saddle. "I still have to aquire a'dam."

 

The largest raken farm in Amadacia has only eight raken? And this was not about hunting down Interulde, Tylee mentions the rebels in Tarabon to Perrin offhand, as too does she mention the Whitecloaks, yet she avoids this question.

 

In response to Luckers' suggestion that the 'great battle' is not Tarmon Gaidon- I am 100% sure that it is.

 

'The great battle done but the world not done with battle' heavily suggests that the great battle involved the 'world' too. I don't think it can be anything other than Tarmon Gaidon.

 

I never before considered the idea that Egwene's Official Amyrlin Takeover and Rand facing her may actually come after TG. Who knows.

 

And yes, Aginor is still alive I suppose. His soul exists in a different body so part of his new incarnation is still Aginor.

 

Well, the direction of the sentence is sequential--they are two seperate comments. The signifier of what the battle was is the word 'great' not the word 'world. The word 'but' seperates the two as two different and distinct realities, its not an ammendment to the first, or a further clarification, its a seperate and contradicting reality.

 

Let me put it this way, consider the upcoming US election. It can't be termed anything but great--a major moment for america and the world following the past eight years. All nations are looking to it. Saying this 'The great election done, but the world not done with elections' doesn't mean the great election involved the whole world, only that it impacted it.

 

Nicola speaks this prophecy in LoC directly before the first great one power battle since the Trolloc Wars. The first major exposure of the Asha'men, the first time Wise Ones fight, and as a result the first time Aes Sedai swear fealty. It was the single greatest and momentous battle likely since the end of the Trolloc Wars. The effects of it are still being felt. I think the 'great battle' is Dumai's Well's.

[Alderthal]

Hmm, I just had a thought. Now, the dream Egwene had of the Seanchean woman focused on the sword she bore, that it was far more important than the woman herself... Callandor perhaps?

 

It could possibly tie in with Elaida's foretelling, that Rand would know the Amyrlin's wrath. Nothing would humble him more than having to beg for Callandor back, no?

 

Admittedly, if that happened, I'd probably make a sacrifice to the great Lord so that he will kill Rand and Egwene both.

[Luckers]

Hmm, I just had a thought. Now, the dream Egwene had of the Seanchean woman focused on the sword she bore, that it was far more important than the woman herself... Callandor perhaps?

 

Most interpret that dream to be of an army led by Tuon. The woman's face is blurry, shifting, because she represents more than one person. The sword is the solid important part, because that represents the actual nature of what the woman is--an army coming to Egwene's aid. It is a woman because it was led by Tuon, or directed into coming by Tuon.

 

 

People have been speaking alot about what we know re: the Seanchan attack, but no ones been posting the quotes, i found my listing of them on my hard drive and figured i'd post it. Here's what we know about the attack.

 

Instigation and Planning

 

The Seanchan first began practical planning for an attack on the Tower after the incident with Elayne and the unweaving of the gateway destroyed the Kin's farm at the end of LoC. Here is the quote from Karede.

 

He had been raised banner-general for his small success in the battles with Asha'men in days when there were few had achieved any, and now, because he had commanded against men who could channel, some thought that meant he had wisdom to share on fighting marath'damane. No one had had to do that in centuries, but since the so-called Aes Sedai had revealed their unknown weapon a few leagues from where he sat a great deal of thought had been put into how to cripple their power.

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pgs 154 and 155]

 

He thinks this whilst considering requests for his thoughts on various plans--ones for Illian, and the Aiel amongst them. Effectively what is happening here is he is reviewing other peoples plans and offering his thoughts on what they suggest. Here's how i know.

 

But those questions would be decided elsewhere, had probably already been decided. His observations would only be used in the infighting over who controlled what after the return.

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pg 155]

 

Effectively, it beuracratic bullcrap--to be pulled out when a particular lord or lady wanted to prove she had been working on the behalf of the Empire. In particular, the plan he was reviewing in reguards to the Aes Sedai was developed by Lord Abaldar Yulan, Captain of the Air (who commands the raken and to'raken of the Forerunners, and who since the Return has commanded all the air forces since the Return's Captain of the Air died on the trip from Seanchan)--which we know from several sources.

 

First there is the seeker that interupts Karede and eyes the requisition for Karede's thoughts on the plan to deal with the Aes Sedai and says...

 

"You are involved with Lord Yulan's plans Banner-General Karede? I would not have thought the Deathwatch Guards would be involved in that."

 

Karede moved the two bronze map-weights that were shaped like lions and allowed the map of Tar Valon to roll shut. The other had not been unroled yet. "You would have to ask Lord Yulan."

 

[CoT - The Tale of a Doll - pgs 156]

 

So, out of fear of the power of the Aes Sedai's 'weapon' the Seanchan turned their attentions to planning an attack against Tar Valon, and Lord Yulan, the commander of the air based forces was the one who concocted the plan.

 

What is the Plan

 

From the fact that Lord Yulan planned it, we can guess what the plan entails--a to'raken based attack against the Tower launched either out of Tarabon through the Caralain Grass, or north out of Altara, though that would involve passing through Andor and Murandy, which would be risky. Pigeons fly faster than to'raken, and the Seanchan know some Aes Sedai know how to travel. The Grass on the other hand is the most unpopulated place in Randland.

 

To'raken can curry up to twelve people one hundred miles in a day. One thousand To'raken could land a force of twelve thousand on the top of the Tower in a little over a month completely undetected. If say 3,000 of those were damane and 4,000 were sul'dam, with a supplementary force of 6,000 soldiers then this is a force capable of taking and holding the Tower--though they couldn't manage the city--with the damane they are strong enough to hold their own, but they simply don't have the numbers to secure an area as large as the city.

 

But, they need only hold the city until a landbased army can be brought into back them up--from there caught between forces out of the Tower and forces assaulting the city itself they could win. It's not a perfect plan, and the Rebels make it even trickier, but its the best the Seanchan can manage.

 

Still, thats all guess work, what do we know of what is actually being done in preparation for this attack.

 

Enacting the Plan

 

As of KoD we know that they have already begun gathering the to'raken together for the assault. We are not sure exactly when they began gathering them--Galgan's comments are as follows.

 

"So long as you don't want the to'raken I have no objection. That plan must go forward. Altara is falling into our hands with barely a struggle, I'm not ready to move on Illian yet and we need to pacify Tarabon in a hurry." [KoD - Embers Falling on Dry Grass - pg45]

 

This is after Suroth commands raken to be sent to Interulde. The phrasing is ambiguos, it could mean either that the plan had already begun and must continue, or that it was about to begin. In any case we know it well and truly has begun when 17 days after that event Perrin and Tylee attempt to gather raken and discover the raken farms almost empty.

 

Tylee began. "I need to replace six raken, Captain, and eighteen morat'raken. And a full company of Groundlings. The one i had is somewhere in Amadacia heading west, and beyond finding."

 

Faloun winced. "Banner-General, if you have lost raken, you know everything has been striped to the bone because of...." His one eye flickered to Perrin, and he cleared his throat before going on. "You ask for three quarters the animals i have left. If you could possibly do with fewer, perhaps only one or two."

 

[KoD - A Manufactory - 299]

 

And, as I raised in the above comment, this does not relate to those sent to help with Interulde--at least not singularily--on the following page Perrin asks Tylee what sent the raken away and she avoids the question.

 

"What sent all the raken away?" he asked.

 

"We should have come here second or third." She replied swinging into the saddle. "I still have to aquire a'dam."

 

[KoD - A Manufactory - 301]

 

Tylee comments freely to Perrin about the Whitecloaks and issues with rebellion in Tarabon, and has no reason to conceal that raken were hunting Interulde's groups down--only the plan for the Tower needs to be concealed behind mystery.

 

When Will the Attack Begin?

 

It's only guesswork. Galgan's comments to Suroth happen on Aine 6, and Perrin's trip to the Manufactory on Aine 23, and the last scene with Egwene is also on Aine 23.

 

The to'raken can cover a hundred miles in a day, from the closest Seanchan held territory it would take around 15 days to reach the Tower (it being about 1,500 miles according to the map in the Guide) That means the attack could take place at any time, including that very night after Egwene's last chapter. I believe in terms of the book that we will see signs of their arrival at the end of the Prologue (and that Ewgene's dinner with Elaida will occur during the Prologue).

 

One final point, many raise the fact that Egwene saw a dark shape fly over the moon at the end of CoT and thought it a draghkar, but suggest it might be a raken scout. I didn't mention this because i have a feeling RJ shot it down in an interview, but still its there.

 

Bleh, hope that helps someone.

[RAND AL THOR]

Logical answer, but the second part of Nicola's prophecy is hardly necessary if the battle were Dumai's Wells.

 

The great battle done but the world not done with battle.

 

If it were Dumai's Wells, then it is fairly obvious that plenty of battles are ahead. We don't need a fortelling to tell us this.

 

If it were Tarmon Gaidon though, it tells us that even after TG, the world is still in turmoil and many wars are yet to come. While this may seem obvious, we would generally expect everything to cool down after TG. The fortelling states that it would not be so.

 

A last point would be the use of the work 'the.'  The great battle is very likely referring to the greatest battle of that age/moment. If it were Dumai's Wells then I would have expected:

 

A Great Battle done, but the world not done with Battle. (Okay the A sounds a bit off there but I'm sure RJ would have found a suitable replacement)

[Luckers]

Logical answer, but the second part of Nicola's prophecy is hardly necessary if the battle were Dumai's Wells.

 

Neither is 'The lion sword, the dedicated spear, she who sees beyond. Three on the boat, and he who is dead yet lives.'

 

We know that there are connections between Aviendha, Elayne, Min and Rand. That statement serves no purpose, implies no future. Foretellings are statements of reality, and the second part of that comment does add to the significance of the first. In other words it is just saying the first truly great battle is done, and more are coming.

 

A last point would be the use of the work 'the.'  The great battle is very likely referring to the greatest battle of that age/moment. If it were Dumai's Wells then I would have expected:

 

A Great Battle done, but the world not done with Battle. (Okay the A sounds a bit off there but I'm sure RJ would have found a suitable replacement)

 

Like 'the', the usual signifier for a specific event?

 

I don't have any issue with you thinking that its Tarmon Gai'don--I'm just saying, it's far from 100% certain and I for one doubt it.

 

 

[RAND AL THOR]

 

Like 'the', the usual signifier for a specific event?

 

 

Yes

 

Logical answer, but the second part of Nicola's prophecy is hardly necessary if the battle were Dumai's Wells.

 

Neither is 'The lion sword, the dedicated spear, she who sees beyond. Three on the boat, and he who is dead yet lives.'

 

 

Why wouldn't that be necessary? It tells us that Rand is going to die and still be alive in some manner. That adds a lot of mystique. I would say that is fairly significant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't have any issue with you thinking that its Tarmon Gai'don--I'm just saying, it's far from 100% certain and I for one doubt it.

 

 

 

I suppose one can't be 100% certain but the odds seem to lean towards TG IMO. Lets bookmark this thread and then come back to it after AMOL.

;)