Rand's Late Channeling

[Cockta]

Thaks guys, you cleared up a lot. There is just one thing I am not sure about: Did the Shadow replace DF for trollocs because they needed better infantry, or because all the DF just died out?

[Thorum]

For the same reason the ancient chinese invented gunpowder, or the late-1800s Germans invented tanks: supremacy.

[Hybrid]

If, as you suggest, the Forsaken did not have a comprable number of channelers, then what is your point in this? Clearly the Trollocs would not be useful against channelers, and thus its a moot point.

 

The point is usually quantity beats quality. You can channal all you want but the over whelming numbers usually wins, the shadow might not had as many channelers but all you need is enough so your armies aren't totally wiped out.  Plus most likely the shadow channelers had the advantage of probably learning destructive weaves before war began added with the shadows willingness to do anything to win.  I think the American civil war is a good example, North had the numbers and South had the better generals.  Once the best military leaders the Light had went to the shadow, the Light couldn't win. 

 

I think a better example is in KOD, when a force of a couple dozen channelers, most of whom were average in power level, and a small group of Saldaeans managed to completely wipe out a force of hundreds of thousands of Trollocs and hundreds of Myrrdraal.  So much for quantity over quality.  In addition, only a few of those channelers used the AOL weaves that Lews Therin wielded, since the Aes Sedai were unable to see the weaves.  The Shadow had plenty of channelers, or they wouldn't be able to overcome the Light's main advantage.

[Cockta]

Yeah, I mean, how many trollocs can one single channeler take out before he/she is overwhelmed?

[Sabio]

But attacking force had no channelers of their own.  Not having alot of channelers is a bit different then not having any at all.

[Hybrid]

Yes, but no channelers died in that battle.  Only Saldaeans, and they were fighting where the channelers couldn't see them.  If there were a few Dark channelers, they would have made things difficult, but Rand and Logain would probably still have been able to fight their way out.  The Light was being overrun in the War of the Shadow, so that there was no hope of victory.  They only won because of LTT's desperate strike at Shayol Ghul.

[Sabio]

Well imo RJ started getting a bit free with numbers.  Before Rand a army of 50,000 was unheard of except when all the nations combined to fight the Aiel. Now seems 100,000 men are all over the place.  Hundreds of thousands of trollocs attacking Rand.  God only knows how many thousands the Shaido have lost yet they always seem to have more. 

 

 

[Generic Aelfinn #2]

the shaido had approximately 160,000(correct me if i'm wrong) when they left the waste(note: this was ALL of their fighters).

 

those channellers at the manor attack were NOT weak.  they had nyaneve(a forsaken-level strong channeler), rand(THE FREAKING DRAGON REBORN for gods sake), logain(ALMOST as strong as that dragon dude), AND cadsuane(the strongest and most experienced [actual] aes sedai) there.  those are just the all-stars for that matter.  ALL of the male channelers there were highly-trained killing machines.  in truth, the only [RELATIVELY] weak links were the aes sedai.  in conclusion, you can't expect every batch of 25(?) channellers to be able to dish out that much damage.

[Sabio]

Not to mention LTT channeling, his weaves saved the day.

[Luckers]

The point is usually quantity beats quality. You can channal all you want but the over whelming numbers usually wins, the shadow might not had as many channelers but all you need is enough so your armies aren't totally wiped out.  Plus most likely the shadow channelers had the advantage of probably learning destructive weaves before war began added with the shadows willingness to do anything to win.  I think the American civil war is a good example, North had the numbers and South had the better generals.  Once the best military leaders the Light had went to the shadow, the Light couldn't win. 

 

There is a distinct military difference between good generals and good channelers. I think the Spanish invasion of south america serves as a better analogy. They were vastly outnumbered, but they had guns. Beyond which, once again, you do not know that the Light was vastly outnumbered--not until the final years of the war when the shadowspawn breeding programs boosted the shadows numbers.

 

Furthermore I'd point out that Be'lal was the only one fighting for the shadow during the early days. Demandred didn't go till near the end of the third year, and Sammael the fourth.

 

By all your logic the shadow should have been swept aside long before the Shadow gained either a numerous military or superior generals.

 

Don't forget many leaders were forced to the shadow. Some went for power, some outta fear, others through forced compulsion. Frocing one to your side and having them make a public alliegence to the shadow was a favorite tatic of the shadow.  Imagine all the despair that created.

 

I'm confused as to what you mean by that? The sentence i quoted directly states that there were high numbers of truly dedicated Darkfriends directly as a result of the high visibility of Forsaken leadership and of high ranking officials turning to the Shadow--i wasn't contesting the second point, merely pointing out that you have no basis for suggesting that the Forsaken were in any way weaker when by all accounts they were reguarded as a strong and effective force.

 

Sorry, didn't mean to suggest all the people taken became trollocs just put that in to show the vast numbers being taken for whatever purpose Aginor choose. Wether it was to increase trolloc numbers in the Lab or just to test on.  But even if a fraction taken added to the trolloc numbers, would still be a pretty sizeable number by the end.

 

Well, again, none of those numbers added to trolloc numbers. Some would have been used to breed trollocs, like glorified incubators, and some supplied genetic material.

 

And again also, I pointed out that by the end of the war the Trollocs prodigous breeding made them the largest military force in the Shadow's arsenal.

 

But at the beginning they were weak, fractured and disorganised. Their use against channelers was pretty much zilch since they would run at the first sign of trouble. Also during the early years the light retained the greater number of the great generals, and so had strategical adventages. They also had control over the major industrial camps (at least for the first year, before they were destroyed). The Light was better outfitted, had better generals, likely had more soldiers.... Had the Shadow not had a comprable amount of channelers they would have been swept aside.

 

Btw if i seem like im arguing this too firmly, im sorry. I'm feeling a little stumped since i thought i was being extreme at limiting the numbers to the hundreds of thousands. Let me show you why.

 

The Age of Legends as an industrialized Age in which no war had been known for centuries (and with the average citizen having roughly a life span of double the norm, or between 160 and 200 years, and channelers living between 600 and 700 years) then I find it highly unlikely they'd have a population less than a billion. I've no doubt concidering their concientious care of the enviroment that they would have breeding restrictions in place to stop over-population, but I find it unlikely their population would be less then a billion.

 

So, from a billion, with 3% of which were trained channelers, then there would have been around 30 million channelers. Even if we cut it down to only those strong enough by modern standards to gain the shawl, then it would be around 19 million channelers strong enough to be effectively used in war.

 

Thaks guys, you cleared up a lot. There is just one thing I am not sure about: Did the Shadow replace DF for trollocs because they needed better infantry, or because all the DF just died out?

 

I'm pretty sure Aginor did it coz he thought it was fun. Initially though you are correct--Darkfriends represented a greater majority of the Shadow's fighting forces. By the end of the war though the scale had tipped purely because of the speed of Trolloc breeding. Now of course the Trollocs represent more or less the entirety of shadow infantry (though in the Trolloc Wars there were enough darkfriends that there were darkfriend armies then too, so we'll probably see it again).

 

Well imo RJ started getting a bit free with numbers.  Before Rand a army of 50,000 was unheard of except when all the nations combined to fight the Aiel. Now seems 100,000 men are all over the place.  Hundreds of thousands of trollocs attacking Rand.  God only knows how many thousands the Shaido have lost yet they always seem to have more. 

 

That's not exactly true. Armies of that size were common during Hawkwing's time, and the era before hand right back to the Age of Legends. It's just that in the aftermath of the war of a Hundred Years the population dropped so dramatically that the major reason for manning and sustaining armies of that size (land disputes) became completely irrelevant.

 

I'd point out too that that is only true in Randland. Seanchan maintained standing armies of a much greater size than a hundred thousand right through the Consolidation, and seemingly kept them standing in the two hundred years since to both deal with rebellion and prepare for the Corenne, which began at that time. The Aiel too maintained constant standing forces in those numbers, though rarely deployed them.

 

As for the Shaido, as Generic Aelfinn states they had a hundred and sixty thousand when they left the waste, but commited only forty thousand to the assault at Dumai's Wells. And their losses there were too sudden to be great--the Asha'men killed about five percent suddenly and dramatically pushing the others to run. They also had the constant intake of the Brotherless to increase their numbers.

 

 

[Mr Ares]

I think the American civil war is a good example, North had the numbers and South had the better generals.

I don't, as there was more to it than just North=more men, South=better generals. Grant cut the Confederacy in two at Vicksburg. The US navy had a blockade on CS ports, the Southern navy wasn't strong enough. The US had the industrial base, so they could produce more weapons, and they had more railways and roads, making transportation and supply easier. The South was politically isolated by the Emancipation Proclamation. The US was better able to replace inadequate generals. Sherman advanced an impressive distance through enemy territory, destroyed their crops, which would ruin their economy, freed slaves, took Atlanta, and he did this by avoiding full on engagements as far as possible - going around the enemy. In fact, Sherman and Grant's abilities make your claim that the South had the better commanders somewhat dubious.

 

For the same reason the late-1800s Germans invented tanks: supremacy.

Usually the invention of the tank is credited to the British, in the early twentieth century. We were certainly the first to make large scale use of them in a military engagement (Great War - the Somme and Cambrai are good examples).

[Cockta]

Ok, I don't know american history so well, but I guess I can catch up in this conversation.

[Hybrid]

I think the American civil war is a good example, North had the numbers and South had the better generals.

I don't, as there was more to it than just North=more men, South=better generals. Grant cut the Confederacy in two at Vicksburg. The US navy had a blockade on CS ports, the Southern navy wasn't strong enough. The US had the industrial base, so they could produce more weapons, and they had more railways and roads, making transportation and supply easier. The South was politically isolated by the Emancipation Proclamation. The US was better able to replace inadequate generals. Sherman advanced an impressive distance through enemy territory, destroyed their crops, which would ruin their economy, freed slaves, took Atlanta, and he did this by avoiding full on engagements as far as possible - going around the enemy. In fact, Sherman and Grant's abilities make your claim that the South had the better commanders somewhat dubious.

 

I agree with you.  However, it took the North a long time to grant leadership to Grant and Sherman.  If I remember correctly, they went through at least 3 generals (McClellan, Burnside, Hooker) who were either incompetent or too cautious (McClellan).  Gettysburg is usually referred to as the turning point, because up to that point Lee had been victorious with the exception of Antietam.

[Cockta]

I have heard about Gettysburg!!!

[Mr Ares]

Gettysburg is usually referred to as the turning point, because up to that point Lee had been victorious with the exception of Antietam.

Yes, and that is damning proof that a smaller, more skilled force is doomed when they go up against a larger.....Also, Meade was commanding the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg, so there's another one for the list of generals preceding Grant in that role. And while he defeated Lee, he didn't finish the job, so not a brilliant general, but certainly a good one.

[Samudor]

I agree, size is only a factor if you know how to leverage it properly. If you think you can simply overwhelm your enemy, you'd better hope he is guileless, because you could be in for a very nasty surprise.

 

Based on what happened in books 10 and 11 though, it is clear that the Shadow will need hundreds and hundreds of thousands of trollocs and fades in order to stand a chance in this last great war. I believe they will favor tactical strikes here and there- I highly doubt that they have the numbers for a full scale head on balls to the wall war like in the War of the Shadow. These days, the primary weapon of the Shadow is subterfuge. Don't forget, that despite how powerful they are, the Forsaken are still few- and the Black Ajah can't be large enough to offset the fact that none of their members are on a level even with Moiraine.

 

Their greatest success has been so far in sewing chaos everywhere- preventing al'Thor from uniting too much of the world behind him to be completely invincible. A fine thing it will be to have to fend off Trolloc raids of 2 or 3 hundred thousand while still having to concern himself with the White Tower and Taim- not to mention the Seanchan.

[Sabio]

Good leadership can make up for lack of numbers.   The South rarely had more men in any fight yet their generals out maneuvered and out classed those of the North for most the war.  Grants genious was never letting up on Lee, he ignored the losses and hounded Lee non stop. Same in the AOL.  The light could hold its own and even take back land because of the skill of their generals.  Once they lost Sammael, Be'lal, and Demandred they lost their advantage.  Sammael for instance was best on the defensive.

 

I still think the Light had more channelers at the start while the Shadow had the numbers with shadowsworn and shadowspawn.  But through defections, losses, and forced conversions they lost the edge they had.  Not to mention the Light was split on what to do.  Some wanted peace, and as seen with LTT's raid disagreements on how to run the war.

 

[Cockta]

Numbers alone is never an advantage. I always thought that Rand would manage to claim more land than he has done until now. And subterfuge can really fuck up a lot withiin an amry, city, or anything. I think the subterfuge thing is more powerful than numbers.

[Hybrid]

Gettysburg is usually referred to as the turning point, because up to that point Lee had been victorious with the exception of Antietam.

Yes, and that is damning proof that a smaller, more skilled force is doomed when they go up against a larger.....Also, Meade was commanding the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg, so there's another one for the list of generals preceding Grant in that role. And while he defeated Lee, he didn't finish the job, so not a brilliant general, but certainly a good one.

 

I knew I'd forgotten someone.  It's been a while (well, not that long) since I studied the Civil War.

 

I still think the Light had more channelers at the start while the Shadow had the numbers with shadowsworn and shadowspawn.  But through defections, losses, and forced conversions they lost the edge they had.  Not to mention the Light was split on what to do.  Some wanted peace, and as seen with LTT's raid disagreements on how to run the war.

 

They may have.  But the War of Power didn't start until 100 years after the Bore, so there was plenty of time for secret recruitment on the Shadow's part.  Not to mention outright declarations, like Ishamael's.  Also, I doubt anyone with the Light actually considered peace, not under the circumstances.

[Cockta]

What was Ishamael's reason for turning to the Shadow, jealousy?

[Sabio]

Also, I doubt anyone with the Light actually considered peace, not under the circumstances.

 

There were several instances where the peace faction sent parties to the Forsaken seeking a settlement of peace.  Every time members came back and were discovered aiding the shadow. 

[Hybrid]

What was Ishamael's reason for turning to the Shadow, jealousy?

 

Philosophy.

 

Also, I doubt anyone with the Light actually considered peace, not under the circumstances.

 

There were several instances where the peace faction sent parties to the Forsaken seeking a settlement of peace.  Every time members came back and were discovered aiding the shadow. 

 

I stand corrected.  Though you would think they'd know better than to attempt negotiating with the impersonation of chaos and evil.

[Samudor]

Actually, if I'm not mistaken- Ishamael turned because he believes he wants to be Prince of the Graveyard. It is my understanding that Ishamael is the only one of the Chosen who completely believes in what the Dark One is after(and the only one who fully knows for that matter). You remember at the end of Book 1, where he talks about how many times he and the Dragon have matched wits. A lot of what he said was a lie, but not all of it I deem. After all, the best lie is based on a little of the truth.

[Luckers]

That's what they meant by philosophy. Ishamael due to his background in philosophy came to believe objectively that the Dark One must win, and thus joined him.

[Hybrid]

Actually, if I'm not mistaken- Ishamael turned because he believes he wants to be Prince of the Graveyard. It is my understanding that Ishamael is the only one of the Chosen who completely believes in what the Dark One is after(and the only one who fully knows for that matter). You remember at the end of Book 1, where he talks about how many times he and the Dragon have matched wits. A lot of what he said was a lie, but not all of it I deem. After all, the best lie is based on a little of the truth.

 

That's what I meant by philosophy.  I just wanted a snappy one-word answer (perhaps not the best idea).