Semirhage - a dimwit?

[Majsju]

Ah the huge mistakes...

 

Shame on Be'lal for not expecting the Aiel to invade the Stone, making it possible for Moiraine to waltz right in undisturbed.

Shame on Be'lal for not expecting Moiraine to have figured out how to use balefire, and carry an angreal strong enough for her to actually be able to kill him.

 

Shame on Rahvin for not expecting Moghedien to know Rand was attacking.

Shame on Rahvin for not expecting Nynaeve to capture Moghedien in the one place where Rahvins traps would be useless, so she could come and rescue Rand.

 

Shame on Sammael for not expecting a fellow forsaken to stab him in the back.

 

Shame on Semirhage for not expecting Cadsuane wearing ter'angreal that were not even created what Semi got looked up.

 

You could almost believe Rand is ta'veren or something...

[Guest Dreadlord]

QUOTE

The DO probably doesn't need any help, just enough time for what it has been doing to finally bear fruit.

UNQUOTE

 

Waiting for the Seals on his prison to finally crumble away

[RAND AL THOR]

Shame on Sammael for not expecting a fellow forsaken to stab him in the back.

 

Well, there Sammael should be ashamed because they know they can't trust each other lol.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Jordan had to tie up some loose ends quickly or the series would drag on for another who knows how many books.  So, he has Graendal cripple Shara offscreen.  Then he has Semirhage cripple Seanchan offscreen.

 

In doing so he clearly establishes the overwhelming advantage any of the Forsaken have as individuals over any defense the Third Age can present.  Big error, and one he obviously  didn't realize he was making.  By establishing their nearly godlike power, he undercut the whole premise of his series - that the Forsaken had to fight a war and that they needed local power bases and troops to win that war. 

 

It turns out that neither of those things are required in order for them to prevail.  In fact, by establishing the power bases that they did, they actually weakened their cause.  All they've done is hand Rand intact armies on a silver platter as he's gone methodically about eliminating them.  They've taken a situation where they could have decapitated the leadership of every country, throwing the whole world into chaos, anarchy, and civil war, making it nearly impossible for the Dragon to effectively oppose them, and turned it into one where he can now almost certainly win.

 

That's making a strategic mistake that gives the game away.

 

 

 

[Guest Toad]

I like how you think, Bob.

[Mr Ares]

I like how you think, Bob.

I don't I prefer ways of thinking that take what the author said into account, rather than just ignoring it.

 

The Forsaken had to fight a war and they needed local power bases and troops to win that war.

You just don't give a damn about what the author actually said, do you? He said "The theory behind this was that once the Dark One broke free, those with the largest worldly power bases would be rewarded most." Or, to put it another way, the biggest empire = the biggest reward. I will now restate that, in really large letters, for anyDwarfone still not getting it: Biggest empire=biggest reward. In that case, doing as you suggest, reducing everything to chaos is counterproductive. Shai'tan breaks free, Rahvin says "Great Lord, I give you Andor", and He is pleased. Be'lal says "Great Lord, I give you Tear", and He is not quite so pleased, but He is still very happy. Semirhage says "Great Lord, I don't exactly have an empire at the moment, I sort of did, but its sort of been reduced to chaos now sort of", and He is displeased. In that scenario, Rahvin gets the biggest reward, Be'lal gets a smaller one, Semi gets none at all. They are not trying to fight a war. THEY ARE TRYING TO CONQUER THE WORLD WITHOUT A WAR! And doing well, with the few exceptions brought about by Rand.

[RAND AL THOR]

If their reward were to depend on the size of the nation under their control by the time TG comes, then why do the Forsaken not express any interest in doing so later? Only Tear, Andor and Illian were taken. That leaves, Amadicia, Tarabon, Arad Doman, Murandy, the whole of the Borderlands (which ought to have been taken first if the Forsaken had any common sense), Cairhien and Seanchan.

 

Furthermore, why would Semi then destroy Seanchan instead of bringing it under her control? She plunged it into chaos and 'The Return' was almost called off because it was considered to be bad luck or something until Tuon turned up anyway.

[Majsju]

Worldly power does not necessarily mean controlling nations...

 

 

[Mr Ares]

If their reward were to depend on the size of the nation under their control by the time TG comes, then why do the Forsaken not express any interest in doing so later? Only Tear, Andor and Illian were taken. That leaves, Amadicia, Tarabon, Arad Doman, Murandy, the whole of the Borderlands (which ought to have been taken first if the Forsaken had any common sense), Cairhien and Seanchan.

 

Furthermore, why would Semi then destroy Seanchan instead of bringing it under her control? She plunged it into chaos and 'The Return' was almost called off because it was considered to be bad luck or something until Tuon turned up anyway.

You missed Mesaana taking the Tower, and Semi being in a very powerful position among the Seanchan - specifically, she has unrestricted access to the heiress to the throne. Control her, arrange an accident, you have the empire. The Seanchan also took Amadicia, Altara and Tarabon. Arad Doman was controlled by Graendal. Murandy is disunified, at least until quite late in the series - exerting control there would be very hard, as you would need to control a lot of local Lords, rather than one Queen, one empress-to-be, a small group of lords, and so on, as the others do. Cairhien dissolved into civil war early in the series (after Thom assassinates King Galldrian and what is presumably a Gholam (the method of killing is the same) kills Barthanes Damodred). That situation needed to be sorted out, which would require an undue level of commitment, and it remained in chaos until Rand took control after chasing off the Shaido. As for throwing it into chaos, that was a means to an end - she intended to set Suroth up as a DF puppet empress once she had killed Tuon. Ghealdan would be a risky proposition because of the situation with the Prophet - too insane to keep, followers to fanatical to be easily controlled without him. Far Madding and Mayene are too small to be worth bothering with. That only leaves the Borderlands. But we don't know what Demandred has been doing, do we?

 

EDIT: Also, the size of their influence needn't be considered in purely geographical terms. The Tower has an awful lot of influence all over the Westlands. Mesaana, by controlling the Tower can thus exert a fair bit of control over a wide area. She also does it indirectly - she controlled Alviarin, who controlled Elaida.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Now, let's put things into type that might be even large enough for Mr Ares to understand:

"The theory behind this was that once the Dark One broke free, those with the largest worldly power bases would be rewarded most."

 

theory [n] a proposed explanation whose status is still conjectural, in contrast to well-established propositions that are regarded as reporting matters of actual fact.

fact [n] something that actually exists; reality; truth

 

Now, let's look at how the author felt about any theories the Forsaken might hold:

Week 1 Question: The Dark One has promised his followers immortality and power above all others on the Day of Return. In previous interviews you have said that this is within his power. My question is, will he? I mean, he doesn't seem very loyal or trustworthy to me. If (Light forbid) he breaks free, will he remember the "little people" or just destroy all the puny humans when he remakes the world in his own image?

 

Robert Jordan Answers: That's the big question for the Forsaken, isn't it. Can they trust the Dark One? You're right; he isn't very trustworthy or loyal. Greed leads people to believe strange things, to excuse the most abhorrent behavior on their parts-just check out the nightly news for confirmation-and at the root, that is what motivates the Forsaken and, in truth, most Darkfriends. Greed for power, greed for immortality. That makes them believe, because they want to believe. So will he grant these things? Maybe. After all, he gains more willing followers, more eager followers, if he is seen to give rewards. But will he care whether he has any followers at all in a world where he is all-powerful? Flip a coin and check which way the wind is blowing. Maybe you can find the answer there.

 

 

[Generic Aelfinn #2]

If their reward were to depend on the size of the nation under their control by the time TG comes, then why do the Forsaken not express any interest in doing so later? Only Tear, Andor and Illian were taken. That leaves, Amadicia, Tarabon, Arad Doman, Murandy, the whole of the Borderlands (which ought to have been taken first if the Forsaken had any common sense), Cairhien and Seanchan.

 

Furthermore, why would Semi then destroy Seanchan instead of bringing it under her control? She plunged it into chaos and 'The Return' was almost called off because it was considered to be bad luck or something until Tuon turned up anyway.

 

Seanchan and Shara are regarded as 'useless' in terms of establishing a worldly power base because they are too far away from the 'center'(ala Randland, ala where the 'action' is going to be).

 

THIS SIMPLE FACT is WHY the forsaken crippled Shara and Seanchan, BUT DID NOT do the same to the Randland nations.  They destroyed S&S because they could not use those territories.  its a simple case of 'if i can't have it, neither can you(!).'

[Avery]

By controlling their own nations, the Forsaken could keep them from unifying. An alliance against the Dark One without Andor, Illian, Tear, Arad Doman, and the White Tower wouldn't be very powerful at all. I'm sure they could figure out ways to sit on their tumbs until the Last Battle is over. Since Seanchan and Shara were useless because of their distance, better they be broken just in case.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Indeed.

 

Now, how much benefit has the Forsaken effort with regard to Cairhien, Andor, Illian, Tear, Amadicia, Tarabon and The Return brought them?  How secure is their influence over the rulers of the Borderlands?  What about their now non-existent influence over the Rebel Tower? The White Cloaks?   What about Mesaana's now shaky sway over the White Tower?  How much value do the Shaido have for the Dark now?  Masema and his cutthroats?

 

By trying to turn all of those power blocs into puppets they ran the risk that Rand ( and others ) would do to them what they should have been doing to him.  Rand and friends are presently running the table on them.  And, with each minor victory, more and more forces are coming into the fold of the Light.

 

Really, really stupid strategy for people who are supposed to be so smart.

 

How much better off would the Dark be if they'd just decapitated or obliterated all of those power blocs to begin with?

[Guest Dreadlord]

Think of what Rand would have been able to do if he hadnt had to waste time sorting those nations out though. For one thing, he could have spent more time at the Black Tower, which meant Taim wouldnt have done as well as he has for the Shadow. They are all distractions, and even though the Forsaken are losing their grip on the nations who know what they have all been doing in the meantime? Who knows what the Shadow has been doing behind closed doors, that might not have been possible if Rand-a Ta'veren-had had more time on his hands?

 

I can understand people being dissapointed in the Forsaken in general, but if you include Ishamael in that then I disagree. Ishamaels influence on the world has been much greater, obviously because he wasnt bound all the time.

 

You have to remember that when a Dark One gives an order, that order may be the Dark Ones priority, but it will most likely NOT be a priority for the Forsaken, as everyone knows they have their own agendas and everything. Its clear that if they find an order to be inconvenient or not completely within their own personal objectives then that order can wait

[Majsju]

I can understand people being dissapointed in the Forsaken in general,

 

And therein lies the core issue.

 

With most fantasy writers, the forsaken would have been some kind of smaller gods, fulla capable of obliterating entire cities with just the blink of an eye, and also walking around doing just that, extinguishing all hope for the good guys until a miracle happens in the very last minute so the Big Bad can be defeated.

 

RJ has chosen to take a different angle, one that can be a bit more difficult to understand. The forsaken, while incredibly powerful, are just humans, and thus suffers from what all humans suffer from, egoism, arrogance, etc. This makes them look weaker if you do not look at the bigger picture.

 

Problem with that is that we do not hold all the information. We know enough to make qualified guesses, but that is about it.

But keep in mind that RJ has said that the DO is winning. Which means the forsaken must be doing quite a few things right. And it is really not that hard to see some of the things they have accomplished.

[Avery]

How much better off would the Dark be if they'd just decapitated or obliterated all of those power blocs to begin with?

 

So your argument is that it was a bad plan because it failed?

 

Hehe, clearly. =p

[Guest Dreadlord]

QUOTE

How much better off would the Dark be if they'd just decapitated or obliterated all of those power blocs to begin with?

UNQUOTE

 

If you destroy something, you cannot use it. Fair enough, your enemy cant either, but if the Forsaken destroyed all the nations then what would they rule after the Dark One won? (Baring in mind that part is looking at it from the Forsakens PoV, so whether or not the Dark One is going to destroy everything after TG is irrelevant)

[Mr Ares]

Now, let's look at how the author felt about any theories the Forsaken might hold:

Wow, Bob. That's not at all helpful. Because the Chosen are working under the assumption that there is something in it for them. If there wasn't, they wouldn't stick with the Shadow. So they work out that this is the best way for them to get the most. If they followed your plan, they would be without any power bases, they would not be in line for the brownie points they think they are due for conquering the world on Shai'tan's behalf....All they would have is a lot of countries fighting each other. Helpful. What's in it for them, again? As has been pointed out, the strategy they were using not only denied resources to the enemy, it supplied them to the Shadow. Oh, and the Shadow are winning. Really bad move, guys. How absolutely stupid of you to do something which currently means you are winning. To be honest, Bob, I don't think your claims to any sort of expertise in the field of strategy or tactics hold much weight when the author says that what you criticise is actually putting them on the brink of victory.

 

Really, really stupid strategy for people who are supposed to be so smart.

Week 1 Question: The Dark One has promised his followers immortality and power above all others on the Day of Return. In previous interviews you have said that this is within his power. My question is, will he? I mean, he doesn't seem very loyal or trustworthy to me. If (Light forbid) he breaks free, will he remember the "little people" or just destroy all the puny humans when he remakes the world in his own image?

 

Robert Jordan Answers: That's the big question for the Forsaken, isn't it. Can they trust the Dark One? You're right; he isn't very trustworthy or loyal. Greed leads people to believe strange things, to excuse the most abhorrent behavior on their parts-just check out the nightly news for confirmation-and at the root, that is what motivates the Forsaken and, in truth, most Darkfriends. Greed for power, greed for immortality. That makes them believe, because they want to believe. So will he grant these things? Maybe. After all, he gains more willing followers, more eager followers, if he is seen to give rewards. But will he care whether he has any followers at all in a world where he is all-powerful? Flip a coin and check which way the wind is blowing. Maybe you can find the answer there.

So these smart people have signed up to serve a supreme being who is decidedly untrustworthy and likely to get rid of them once He is unleashed upon the world. Very smart, that. They are portrayed as human, with all the stengths and weaknesses that that entails.

[CivBrit]

I completely agree with the original post about Semirhage being an idiot. For all of the reasons mentioned she couldn't have expected to win that fight. She knows Rand has already taken down several other Chosen, so I find it hard to believe she was confident of victory.

 

That leaves the possibility that she intended to get captured. This might explain why she used a fireball instead of something more deadly. But how could she be so sure she wouldn't be killed or stilled?

 

Maybe she knew about Rand's reluctance to kill women, but there were plenty of other people around who could have killed her. And she would be far from sure that Rand wouldn't at least still her. He can get plenty of knowledge out of her even after she's stilled. In fact, if he doesn't still her immediately at the start of the next book, he's an idiot too(just like Nyn and Elyane were leaving Moghedien unsupervised so much in Salidar during LoC. Any darkfriend could have come along and removed that A'dam while the girls were busy doing chores and lessons).

 

Generally speaking, the vast majority of Randlanders aren't very smart.

 

 

[Luckers]

I take it, then, that you didn't read the rest of the thread.

 

Her plan was simple--she had pre-woven and inverted weaves that would have incapicitated Rand and his entire party before they had time to realise something was up. By the time they recovered they would have been leashed.

 

Semirhage had no way of knowing ter'angreal existed capable of detecting and breaking inverted weaves--indeed, she had every reason to think that such a thing was impossible given modern people were primative in their knowledge of channeling. We arn't talking about things like bonding here either--Semirhage had familiarised herself with what modern Aes Sedai could do. She just encountered the two Aes Sedai who stood out from the pack.

 

She had every reason to expect her plan to work, and no reason to think it wouldn't.

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

And that, too, bears on my point.  Arrogance and foolishness trumping intelligence and common sense.

 

Did she think Ba'alzamon had no "foolproof plan" at Tarwin's Gap?

Did she think that after loosing badly there that he didn't have an even more "foolproof plan" at Falme?

Did she think that after loosing both of those encounters he didn't have the "ultimate foolproof plan" at Tear?  Especially with Bel'al to act as his stalking horse?

Rahvin had all of Caemlyn trapped.  He had a whole gauntlet of traps preset for Rand.  Yet, Rand won again.

Then there's Sammael and his multi-layered defense-in-depth that also failed.

 

I wouldn't blame her for thinking that Lanfear died owing entirely to her own failings, but Semi failed to give any of the others Rand had bested any credit either.

 

That's not smart.  Nor is it sensible.  Rand, quite obviously, has Talents and Resources that cannot be predicted, nor planned around.  So, how could Semirhage have "every reason to expect her plan to work, and no reason to think it wouldn't."?

[Gentled Ben]

She's probably not as in awe of Ishamael's accumen as you are, Bob. Perhaps she remembers him in his glory days, as Elan Morin Tedronai, when he was humiliated by Lews Therin in the Hall of the Servants, or when later, as Ishamael, he was pwned outside the gates of Paaren Disen by the same man. Honestly, his track record vs. Lews Therin/ Rand al'Thor is comical. Why should she expect to fail like the same brand of buffoon?

[Bob T Dwarf]

It wasn't just Ba'alzy.  It was Aginor + Balthamel + Ba'alzy + Ba'alzy (again) + Ba'alzy (yet again) + Bel'al + Asmo + Lanfear + Rahvin + Sam + Aginor (again).

 

If she can't detect a pattern to all of those outcomes, then she truly is hopeless.

[Gentled Ben]

Balthamel-killed by a Nym, Aginor, killed himself, both = crazy after their shallow imprisonment, Bel'al was killed by a cheapshot from someone else while he was in the middle of owning Rand, Asmo was a noob, Lanfear took a cheap shot from someone else while in the middle of owning Rand, rahvin took a cheapshot fomr someone else while in the middle of owning Rand, Sammael was eaten by Mashadar while in the middle of owning Rand, and Aginor was a noob. Yeah, she probably saw a pattern to those outcomes, as evidenced by the a'dams she brought along to handle all of those cheapshotters.  :D

Coupled with the fact that she did not consider herself a noob, it seemed a good plan to her, and just like all the other good plans, it almost worked, until she took a cheapshot from a ter'angreal. She can hardly be blamed for that.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Cheapshots or not ( and nobody but Rand was around to deal with Ba'alzy all three times ), the salient point is that nobody faces Rand and walks away.  If Rand himself doesn't take his antagonist out, someone or something else does.  Without fail.

 

So, how is it again that Semirhage could realistically believe that she would succeed?

 

She couldn't.  She was blinded by her own hubris and arrogant sense of entitlement.