Encounters

[RobertAlexWillis]

The streangthening of one side in a confrontation so that it might stand toe to toe with the other is absolutely a goal that an interested third party would maintain.

 

Why would Mesaana want them to stand "toe to toe" when she could keep them both completely occupied and a thousand miles apart?  By bringing them "toe to toe" there is a possibility of resolution of the conflict.

 

Yes, they have. And Aviendha has been training her personal reflexes much more studiously. And now that she has had experience with the Power, those reflexes combined with that experience come into play... which would be my point.

 

In terms of training in recognition and reaction to an enemy, Aviendha exceeds both Moghedian and Cyndane by far. Add familiarity to the Power (which she lacked in her initial interaction with Lanfear) and yes, she is more formidable.

 

Is Aviendha more formidable now than she was in Cairhien?  Yes.  Is she more formidable with the Power than Cyndane and Moghedien combined, or Graendal?  No.  But we obviously disagree.

 

Since your argument seems to be based on her reflex training with the Maidens, and she had all of that before her fight with Lanfear at the docks, I don't agree with your assessment.  Physical combat training is mostly about repetition and muscle memory.  None of that applies to channeling.

 

Despite your use of the word 'hardly', yes indeed that seems likely to have been the case... do you really want me to quote the number of times that was stated, much less suggested? It'll take me hours, but ill do it if you havn't read the books.

 

Yes I've read them.  Would you like for me to go through all of the incorrect opinions that people have had in the books?  I'll take me days, but I'll do it if you haven't read the books ....

 

Umm... Cloglords position stands. Aviendha was new to channeling, therefore her reflexivity to percieved danger was rather irrelevant. I'm afraid I don't understand your contention. Is it your position that Aviendha has learned nothing in the year since that event? Your final comment seems to dismiss that... so yeah, I'm a little confused.

 

You contention was that the reflexes she developed in training for physical combat would give her an edge.  Now you're talking about the channeling she's learned in the interim?  Which is it?  The idea that her just over a year of training since would give her abilities equalling those of people who were, for all intents and purposes, professional channelers for centuries, is, in my opinion, nothing short of absurd.

 

Her physical reflexes simply don't apply.  And her channeling reflexes are inferior.  The only times the Forsaken have been beaten are when Rand was in the fray (with his ta'veren-ness, good tools, etc), or when the Forsaken beat themselves (Lanfear and Be'lal ignoring Moiraine, Moghedien getting suckered in Tel'aran'rhiod, well equipped circles at the Cleansing, etc).  Graendal has not shown the propensity toward ignoring modern channelers, so I doubt the second will obtain, and if Rand is involved, my assessment if the situation changes dramatically.

 

Again you deal with the birds eye view of the reader. Dyelin had the six who stood apart (Norwelyn, Renshar, Coelan, Carand, Traemane and Pendar) from the very beginning. Dyelin originally had Elenia and Naean arrested which brought her Arawn and Sarand... thats eight. And it was Dyelin herself that won Mantear, Haevin, Gilyard and Northan to Elayne's cause. With Elayne dead, do you really doubt that they would not have supported Taravin?

 

Unless Egwene was dead too, those six would still have been busy on the border of Murandy.  And if Dyelin arrested Elenia and Naean and Elayne were dead, Rand would have assumed she was moving on the throne herself and stopped her.

 

Actually, if Elayne was dead, Rand would be deciding who got the Lion Throne, or rather, who would be his Steward in Andor.  And many of the Andorans would be fighting him.  I don't see how that is anything other than good for the Shadow ...

 

But Dyelin did not have a signifigant military force with her in Caemlyn.  Even three Houses in opposition could have taken it from her, and if you think that holding Caemlyn wouldn't have affected the answers of Mantear, Haevin, Gilyard and Northan, then you're not thinking terribly clearly.

 

All of the political maneuvering is moot, though, (and yes, this is a change from my original argument) because the only reason they can do all that is that Rand took a hands off appraoch because of Elayne.  No Elayne, no hands off approach, and half of Andor is in revolt against Rand.

 

I'm sorry, but are you saying that one of the 19 most powerful Andoral houses is in danger of not being able to provide a heir?  That's just .... ludicrous.

 

High Houses have come to an end before, cloglord ...

 

You are on one extreme of this argument and I'm on the other.  Disagreeing with you does not make me ludicrous, naive, or any other petty insult you'd like to throw in my direction.  Your condecension amazes me, as I had thought you better than that.  Maybe having people blow smoke about how amazing RAW is, has gone to your head.

 

Yes, that must be it.

[Majsju]

Why would Mesaana want them to stand "toe to toe" when she could keep them both completely occupied and a thousand miles apart?  By bringing them "toe to toe" there is a possibility of resolution of the conflict.

 

 

Well, it has been hinted that quite a few sisters in Egwenes camp were starting to see quietly slipping out the backdoor and stay low as an interesting option. Had that happened, it might have resulted in a situation where the rebellion was down to Egwene, the Blue Ajah, and perhaps a dozen others. Granted, it was only hinted at, and mostly through the words of a Red sister, but it is quite a realistic scenario.

[DemandredFO]

RAW, there are several differences between the situation in Cairhein and the anticipated one in Arad Doman.  Lanfear was stronger than Aviendha and Lanfear had the Angreal braclet.  Aviendha had not had much OP experience.  Avi and Greandal are roughly the same strength and Avi has a strong angreal.  Last, but not least, don't underestimate instinct; Nyneave produced balefire when she had absolutely no idea how to produce it.  I could see Avi pro9ducing an arrow of fire or something else at an opportune time.  I forgot too strength increases with time of use of the power, so perhaps Avi couldn't physically produce something inventive.

Thats how I see it

[lou]

what are we basing the comparison of aviendha to graendal? was this strength in power ever mentioned in the books?

[cloglord]

High Houses have come to an end before, cloglord ...

 

Instantly?  Give me one example, please, just one.

 

All of the political maneuvering is moot, though, (and yes, this is a change from my original argument) because the only reason they can do all that is that Rand took a hands off appraoch because of Elayne.  No Elayne, no hands off approach, and half of Andor is in revolt against Rand.

 

No more than Tear or Carhien was in revolt.  BOth countries were occupied by Rand's forces, and both countries were appointed regents, after a period of minor rebellion.  Both situations that were resolved with a minimum of bloodshed, and seem to be relatively stable regions under Rand's control.  Unless you think that the Andorans would have rather taken on 9,000 Saldean horse, the Aiel, and the collected ashamen than accept Dyelin as queen and regent? 

 

 

[YoungKing]

RAW, there are several differences between the situation in Cairhein and the anticipated one in Arad Doman.  Lanfear was stronger than Aviendha and Lanfear had the Angreal braclet.  Aviendha had not had much OP experience.  Avi and Greandal are roughly the same strength and Avi has a strong angreal.  Last, but not least, don't underestimate instinct; Nyneave produced balefire when she had absolutely no idea how to produce it.  I could see Avi pro9ducing an arrow of fire or something else at an opportune time.  I forgot too strength increases with time of use of the power, so perhaps Avi couldn't physically produce something inventive.

Thats how I see it

 

I hate to burst your buble but Aviendha is not nearly as strong as Greandal. I don't see where you got that from. I look at it this way:

 

Avi is said to have the same potential and stength in the OP as Egwene and Elayne, as said in TSR. Nyneave is much stronger than Egwene, Elayne, and Avi, and gets in a fight with Moghieden(sp), matching her strength in the OP. Although I don't have every fact or statement, it's safe to say that Moghieden was on of the weaker of the Chosen, probably in the bottom three. It's tougher to say where Greandal lies in OP strength, but I'd guess somewhere in the middle, at least a significant amount stronger than Moghieden.

 

Now, you, and other people, are suggesting that Aviendha is close to or matches the strength of Greandal? It's doubtful that Nyneave is quite that strong, as her strength in the OP is probably more or less done growing, and you suggest that Aviendha matches that strength? If Avi were that strong, it's safe to say Nyneave is probably as strong as what Lanfear was, if not stronger. That to me just doesn't make sense.

 

I've always thought that people think that Egwene, Elayne, Avi, are stronger than they really are. Strong for Aes Sedai yes, but not compared to the Chosen, certainly not near Rand, Logain, or Taim.

 

Also, I find it hard to believe that the training and experience Aviendha has gained in a year could even be thought to put her on a level with a Chosen. These people were channelling for centuries, they know more than Rand(minus LT) yet somehow, Aviendha, superwoman, has gained enough knowledge to be on par with one of the Forsaken? What?! And because she's practised fighting with spears and shields against other people with spears and shields, that's somehow going to help her fight with the OP? I think Greandal would be more prepared and knowledgable about warfare involving the OP. It's a lot different than spears and shields.

 

In a one on one fight, its safe to say that Aviendha, or Egwene/Elayne, would get wasted by a Chosen. If anything, that angreal probably puts her on an equal level in OP strength with Graendal, yet even though Greandal has a weak angreal, a tiny bit can count. Look at Rand vs Asmodean in TSR.

 

Just my thoughts on that.

 

As to potential match ups...

 

I could see Perrin against Slayer. I think Fain has more of a climax to fulfill then to be offed by an assassin.

 

I'd like to see Mat against the Gholam, I think that could happen.

 

Egwene against Elaida, for sure.

 

Logain against Fain, though I'm not sure that would happen. From what I remember though, Logain really hates Fain.

 

That's about all I've got for now.

 

YK.

[cloglord]

Youngking, congrats on your foray into the Dragonmount theory discussion boards.  Let me be the first to welcome you, and the coherent and well articulated post that you have just made.  It is not always the norm. 

 

The one point that I would bring up, is that a OP battle is not simply amatter of pitching realtive strength against each other and automatically determining the winner.  Here's a hypothetical situation where Graendal would be defeated easily by the much weaker Avhienda.

 

We know that Graendal's prefered weapon in a OP battle is her speciality, compulsion.  She demonstrates this when she defeats both Cyandane and Moghedian.  We also have evidence that some people are sufficiently strongwilled to fight off the effects of compulsion, even sustained compulsion administered over time.  This is of course the example of Morgase while under the control of Gaebril.  If we were to attribute similar willpower to Avhienda, which I do not think would be out of line, then Avhienda could potentially negate Graendal's greatest strength.  if we then take into account Avhienda's greatest strength, physical fighting prowess, it is not hard to envision an encounter wherein Graendal attempts to use a finely controlled form of compulsion on Avhienda, and in failing ends up with a knife in her throat.  Graendal is stronger, but Avhienda could match Graendal's strength with her own, and have a strength were Graendal is weakest.  This type of thinking is also found when Graendal sizes up Semhirage at one of the forsaken meetings.  She feels that they are pretty evenly matched, and that where she is weak in comparison, she feels that she has strengths to lay against Semhirage's weaknesses.

 

Like I said ealier, I'm not sure that any real resolution can come of this discussion, except to say that there is no definative answer to the question of who would win in a fight between the two.

[YoungKing]

Youngking, congrats on your foray into the Dragonmount theory discussion boards.  Let me be the first to welcome you, and the coherent and well articulated post that you have just made.  It is not always the norm.

 

Heh thanks. Been visiting here for a while, thought I should add my comments!

 

The one point that I would bring up, is that a OP battle is not simply amatter of pitching realtive strength against each other and automatically determining the winner.  Here's a hypothetical situation where Graendal would be defeated easily by the much weaker Avhienda.

 

I agree with that, there is much more to it than just who's stronger. I think that Greandal has the strength and the knowledge, two of the most important factors. Like you said everyone has their own stengths and weaknesses apart from the obvious ones.

 

To be honest I never thought that Greandal would use compulsion, I guess i was thinking for of a fireball/lightning affair. I'd have to say that what you said makes sense, and using compulsion on Aviendha would probably be a grave error, although it's so tough to say because all we can do is speculate. Maybe it would work on Aviendha. Moghieden used it on Elayne and Nyneave, and they were even ready for some sort of attack. Again, it's all speculation with the little things, but I will say that without outside interference or circumstances, and if Greandal had the intent to kill, she would be able to easily handle Aviendha. Then again, there's no perfect world.

 

YK.

[Majsju]

I could see Perrin against Slayer. I think Fain has more of a climax to fulfill then to be offed by an assassin.

 

You don't think Fain has enough nastiness up his sleeve to be more than a match for Slayer?

I think Slayer and Fain will meet, with Slayer being the one ending up dead.

I kinda have to think Fain would win, since I also think Fain will have his Gollum moment and save Rands life by killing SH.

[RobertAlexWillis]

All right.  There is nothing to be gained from belaboring my points more, so I'm going to stop.  My thought on this subject has taken a slightly different bent anyway, so I'm going to start another thread, since this one has moved, in some measure, away from its purpose.

[Luckers]

Why would Mesaana want them to stand "toe to toe" when she could keep them both completely occupied and a thousand miles apart?  By bringing them "toe to toe" there is a possibility of resolution of the conflict.

 

Because lacking a constant renewal of the confrontation between the two, then the Rebels would have started slipping back to the Tower. With time and no reminding of the threat, bending knee to Elaida would have become an acceptable price for the runification of the Tower. And yes, Mesaana would want to avoid that.

 

But you seem to think that everything that happened happened at Mesaana's bidding. It was Siuan and Leane that saw Egwene into the Amyrlin Seat, and it was Egwene and Siuan that saw Egwene real power. Egwene was the one who then used that power to bring them toe to toe. Once that happened Mesaana had no choice to keep up the confrontation--as she makes clear when she conciders staging a 'break out' in KoD. More specifically, we saw the effect of Egwene's fall in the first chapter of KoD. Less then a day and they were already fracturing. Had Egwene not been a dreamwalker capable of ongoing interaction with the Hall, and thereby reaffirming the Rebels, then the Rebellion likely would have collapsed.

 

And that, my friend, is why Mesaana needs to keep Egwene in play. If the rebellion collapsed at this stage then reunification would have been immediate. Of course, we can see that in the long run is much more dangerous to leave Egwene in play than risk the potential collapse of the rebellion, but Mesaana can't see that... hence she keeps Egwene in play.

 

Is Aviendha more formidable now than she was in Cairhien?  Yes.  Is she more formidable with the Power than Cyndane and Moghedien combined, or Graendal?  No.  But we obviously disagree.

 

I never said she was more formidable with the Power, i said that as a warrior she is more formidable in terms of her conditioned response to sudden threat.

 

Since your argument seems to be based on her reflex training with the Maidens, and she had all of that before her fight with Lanfear at the docks, I don't agree with your assessment.  Physical combat training is mostly about repetition and muscle memory.  None of that applies to channeling.

 

It's also about perception of threat and trained reflexive response, which all applies to channeling. At the time of her fight with Lanfear she lacked the training aspect.

 

Yes I've read them.  Would you like for me to go through all of the incorrect opinions that people have had in the books?  I'll take me days, but I'll do it if you haven't read the books ....

 

And that is relevant... how? We saw the Aes Sedai starting to come apart when Egwene was captured, and the statements in question are personal statement. Its not other people going 'well, if this happened, i think they would do this.' It's Aes Sedai stating their desperate belief in the nessisity for Tower unification. If the need to bring down Elaida had not be constantly reinforced by ongoing confrontation, then the Rebels would have given into that desire.

 

You contention was that the reflexes she developed in training for physical combat would give her an edge.  Now you're talking about the channeling she's learned in the interim?  Which is it?  The idea that her just over a year of training since would give her abilities equalling those of people who were, for all intents and purposes, professional channelers for centuries, is, in my opinion, nothing short of absurd.

 

I'm sorry, what?

 

One of my suggestions is that her reflexes in percieving and reacting to threats would give her an edge, and that whilst her lack of training in channeling interfered with her response in FoH, that lack of training is no longer an issue because she had now had training, and more specifically, experience.

 

I'm confused as to what you are going on about, but thats my position there.

 

Her physical reflexes simply don't apply.  And her channeling reflexes are inferior.  The only times the Forsaken have been beaten are when Rand was in the fray (with his ta'veren-ness, good tools, etc), or when the Forsaken beat themselves (Lanfear and Be'lal ignoring Moiraine, Moghedien getting suckered in Tel'aran'rhiod, well equipped circles at the Cleansing, etc).  Graendal has not shown the propensity toward ignoring modern channelers, so I doubt the second will obtain, and if Rand is involved, my assessment if the situation changes dramatically.

 

You think that her training in recognizing and responding to a sudden new threat don't apply to a situation in which she is forced to recognize and respond to a sudden new threat?

 

Forgive me if I am confused.

 

Unless Egwene was dead too, those six would still have been busy on the border of Murandy.  And if Dyelin arrested Elenia and Naean and Elayne were dead, Rand would have assumed she was moving on the throne herself and stopped her.

 

Yes, and if Dyelin were dead maybe Bela could have the throne.

 

Honestly... the logical contortions in what you are suggesting... do you really think any of this occured to the Forsaken? Beyond which, even if they remained on the border, they eventually would have come north, and their support would have eventually served Dyelin, so i dont even see your contention. Even more likely is that they would simply have published in favour of Dyelin from where they were.

 

Beyond which, if Elayne were dead, why on earth would Rand stop Dyelin from taking the throne. He respects Dyelin. Dyelin would not make a move to the throne until Elayne was known to be dead, and if so Rand would support her claim.

 

Actually, if Elayne was dead, Rand would be deciding who got the Lion Throne, or rather, who would be his Steward in Andor.  And many of the Andorans would be fighting him.  I don't see how that is anything other than good for the Shadow ...

 

If Elayne were dead, Dyelin would claim the throne, and Rand would not interfere. He held the throne for Elayne, but if she were dead he would not interfere with Dyelin's claim. He stated his reason for entering Andor, and he stated his belief that he was not occupying Andor so much as liberating it. He would not stand in the way of their natural succession. Certainly not from Dyelin.

 

But Dyelin did not have a signifigant military force with her in Caemlyn.  Even three Houses in opposition could have taken it from her, and if you think that holding Caemlyn wouldn't have affected the answers of Mantear, Haevin, Gilyard and Northan, then you're not thinking terribly clearly.

 

Lol. If you think that the natural progression of the succession plus Dyelin herself are not the cause of those four houses supporting Elayne, than you... well, im not going to fall to that childishness, but im sure you get the point.

 

All of the political maneuvering is moot, though, (and yes, this is a change from my original argument) because the only reason they can do all that is that Rand took a hands off appraoch because of Elayne.  No Elayne, no hands off approach, and half of Andor is in revolt against Rand.

 

Your mistaken, mate. Rand only interefered because of Elayne. No Elayne, no objection from Rand about the throne passing to the next in line, Dyelin.

 

what are we basing the comparison of aviendha to graendal? was this strength in power ever mentioned in the books?

 

Graendal is stronger then Someryn, and Someryn is stronger than Tamela and Viendre, who is in turn stronger than Elayne (and Aviendha).

 

The exact distance between them is uncertain, but given the difference between their angreal they are likely fairly close to each other at the moment.

 

I hate to burst your buble but Aviendha is not nearly as strong as Greandal. I don't see where you got that from. I look at it this way:

 

Avi is said to have the same potential and stength in the OP as Egwene and Elayne, as said in TSR. Nyneave is much stronger than Egwene, Elayne, and Avi, and gets in a fight with Moghieden(sp), matching her strength in the OP. Although I don't have every fact or statement, it's safe to say that Moghieden was on of the weaker of the Chosen, probably in the bottom three. It's tougher to say where Greandal lies in OP strength, but I'd guess somewhere in the middle, at least a significant amount stronger than Moghieden.

 

Now, you, and other people, are suggesting that Aviendha is close to or matches the strength of Greandal? It's doubtful that Nyneave is quite that strong, as her strength in the OP is probably more or less done growing, and you suggest that Aviendha matches that strength? If Avi were that strong, it's safe to say Nyneave is probably as strong as what Lanfear was, if not stronger. That to me just doesn't make sense.

 

You should have read the thread more carefully. The claim is that given that Graendal has a very weak angreal, and Aviendha has a very strong one, that their comparative strengths WITH those angreal is relatively close, not that Aviendha is as strong as Graendal.

 

As to the actual progression of strengths, the most direct line we have is the Someryn one i stated above.

 

Also, I find it hard to believe that the training and experience Aviendha has gained in a year could even be thought to put her on a level with a Chosen. These people were channelling for centuries, they know more than Rand(minus LT) yet somehow, Aviendha, superwoman, has gained enough knowledge to be on par with one of the Forsaken? What?! And because she's practised fighting with spears and shields against other people with spears and shields, that's somehow going to help her fight with the OP? I think Greandal would be more prepared and knowledgable about warfare involving the OP. It's a lot different than spears and shields.

 

Firstly, yes, her warrior instinct and awareness is an additive. It sounds cheesy, but will is significant, as is the training to percieve and react to a sudden threat, even in a channeling battle.

 

Beyond that, the claim is not that Aviendha has learnt more than the Chosen. It is that with the knowledge learnt from Moghedian plus the Aiel training she is formidable enough to hold her own in battle. In terms of weaves the only advantage that Graendal has currently is reversion.

 

In a one on one fight, its safe to say that Aviendha, or Egwene/Elayne, would get wasted by a Chosen. If anything, that angreal probably puts her on an equal level in OP strength with Graendal, yet even though Greandal has a weak angreal, a tiny bit can count. Look at Rand vs Asmodean in TSR.

 

I'm afraid I don't understand. Elayne states that with the angreal she gave Aviendha she would be able to channel a little bit over double her normal strength (and that it is very strong for an angreal). Are you suggesting that Graendal's normal strength is more than double Aviendha's?

 

Graendal's angreal on the other hand is described as very weak, it likely does little more than add half again Graendals normal strength. For the purpose of very loose extrapolation, say Aviendha is around a 70, whilst Graendal is around a 90. Aviendha gets and extra 75 from her angreal leaving her around 145, whilst Graendal gets maybe an extra 50, leaving her around a 140.

 

 

[YoungKing]

You should have read the thread more carefully. The claim is that given that Graendal has a very weak angreal, and Aviendha has a very strong one, that their comparative strengths WITH those angreal is relatively close, not that Aviendha is as strong as Graendal.

 

Well DemandredFO said that they are around the same strength in the OP.

 

Firstly, yes, her warrior instinct and awareness is an additive. It sounds cheesy, but will is significant, as is the training to percieve and react to a sudden threat, even in a channeling battle.

 

Beyond that, the claim is not that Aviendha has learnt more than the Chosen. It is that with the knowledge learnt from Moghedian plus the Aiel training she is formidable enough to hold her own in battle. In terms of weaves the only advantage that Graendal has currently is reversion.

 

I disagree about the warrior training giving her an edge. If anything, Greandal has OP training in warfare far more extensive than Aviendha, I think that would matter more. Again, a years worth of training against a Forsaken would give about half a chance, and Greandal has every advantage except an angreal.

 

I'm afraid I don't understand. Elayne states that with the angreal she gave Aviendha she would be able to channel a little bit over double her normal strength (and that it is very strong for an angreal). Are you suggesting that Graendal's normal strength is more than double Aviendha's?

 

Graendal's angreal on the other hand is described as very weak, it likely does little more than add half again Graendals normal strength. For the purpose of very loose extrapolation, say Aviendha is around a 70, whilst Graendal is around a 90. Aviendha gets and extra 75 from her angreal leaving her around 145, whilst Graendal gets maybe an extra 50, leaving her around a 140.

 

It's hard to say exactly, but I think it could be possible that Greandal is almost twice as strong, if not twice as strong, as Aviendha and Egwene and Elayne. Rand is much stronger than the girls, probably somewhere in the range of five or six times stronger, and I doubt that Greandal is not half as strong as Rand. Try and look at Rand in TSR when he toys with Egwene and Elayne. Apparently at that point they could hold more of the power than Moiraine, much more, yet Rand was above and beyond anything they thought. I think he had something like twelve weaves going, and Egwene later admits that she probably could barely manage two at the same time.

 

I know that's a long time ago in the books, but if they were to progress at that rate, Rand is still ridiculously stronger than Egwene and Elayne. And Greandal is pretty strong herself. I may be pulling this from left field but even with that angreal i think Greandal would be as strong if not stronger than Aviendha. Like I said above, it hink too many people give the girls too much credit.

 

I'm not trying to say for sure that Greanda; would be twice as strong, but I think it's possible. More than a "70-90" in your example.

 

I think Slayer and Fain will meet, with Slayer being the one ending up dead.

I kinda have to think Fain would win, since I also think Fain will have his Gollum moment and save Rands life by killing SH.

 

Well if they were to meet, I would give the edge to Fain as well, but I think that it will be Perrin taking care of Slayer.

 

YK.

[Darkness Incarnated]

To Cloglord:

Mesaana is the one who compares herself to Semirhage and estimate that they are roughly the same strength, not Graendal. Graendal is above Semirhage/Mesaana, though how far above, we don't know. As has been said, Aviendha is as strong as Egwene/Elayne. 'Nynaeve shines like a bonfire beside Egwene's and Elayne's candles.' That's a big drop, if you ask me. Nynaeve is on a par with Moghedien, or slightly above, Moghedien is below Mesaana/Semirhage. The point is, Graendal is considerably stronger that Aviendha.

 

Luckers, I don't deny for my part that Aviendha's Maiden experience increases her reflexive response to threats, but the way you present it it's as if Graendal has zero reflexe responsiveness. She fought in the War of the Power, right? And she's still here. Furthermore, I'm confused when you say that a year's experience now puts Aviendha on a par with Graendal (that the only thing that Graendal has over Aviendha is reversion, your own words). That's just preposterous. You seem to blatantly ignore the hundreds of years Graendal has had to hone her reflexes and experience with the Power. Don't they count for something? How could the knowledge Moghedien parts with--reluctantly, I might add--in one year compare to Graendal's entire life knowledge? I also feel that channeling reflexes are faster than those required in physical combat, and Graendal has way more of the former, she was in a battle that required them. Has Aviendha been in one? If I were to bet on two drivers taking part in a race, I would put my money on the one who has been driving for a year, rather than the one with a one-day experience.

[Achmed]

Quote

I'm sorry, but are you saying that one of the 19 most powerful Andoral houses is in danger of not being able to provide a heir?  That's just .... ludicrous.

 

High Houses have come to an end before, cloglord ...

 

 

Just to add my 2 cents between the powerhouses.  The 2 captured high seats, the ones captured by Dyeloin and lost by Elayne, One of them, clearly notes after publicly declaring support for (Stupid High Seat who besieges Elayne) that for her to renounce her support could and likely would cause her house to splinter and the minor houses attached to it to go elsewhere.

[DemandredFO]

Youngking, I apologize I worded that statement badly.  On another point Greandal was not one of the Generals of the Dark One in the war of power, she used manipulation and fighting from the shadows.  By no means was she like the Spider but she wasn't strictly speaking a warrior.  I doubt that she knows many warrior weaves, however I could be wrong but I don't think so.  Aviendha doesn't know advanced warrior weaves either but, as I said, in tDR Nyneaves produces balefire to kill the Myrdraal because she is really angry.  Yet she has no knowledge of how to produce balefire or even what it is.  Now Nyneave wasn't a warrior and she produced balefire.  Now, I'm not saying aviendha will produce advanced fighting weaves, I'm just saying that because of her warrior training as a Maiden she has the potential to produce something.

[lou]

actually graendal did command troops in the war of the shadow, and she governed lands conquered. she does prefer politiacal manipulation to open confrontation, but will not back away from it either (mog is the coward). graendal certainly does know the weave for balefire but i doubt she will feel that neccessary against aviendha. i think graendal could easily overpower avi, maidentrained or not.

[Mr Hindley]

On the topic of face-to-face fighting, Graendal got a chance to hone her reflexes at the Cleansing, of course. IIRC, she faced off against Verin and her party - and managed to off one of them. Which I still reckon is a bit disappointing, given how powerful the Forsaken are meant to be, but still, shows she can handle herself reasonably well in a fight, and isn't going to crumble just because Aviendha causes her to break a nail.

[cloglord]

Just to add my 2 cents between the powerhouses.  The 2 captured high seats, the ones captured by Dyeloin and lost by Elayne, One of them, clearly notes after publicly declaring support for (Stupid High Seat who besieges Elayne) that for her to renounce her support could and likely would cause her house to splinter and the minor houses attached to it to go elsewhere.

 

Yes you are correct, but it did not say that said house would be unable to provide an Heir, nor that that house would cease to exist.  Further, that example is not terribly relevant to this argument.  Even had Elayne made a claim before her hypothetical death, her successor could and would have likely changed  that position after replacing Elayne.  In fact something very similar happened when Nasin dies, and Sylvase switches sides.

[Luckers]

Well DemandredFO said that they are around the same strength in the OP.

 

As indeed, they would be with their angreal. :) But, that being said, i see where you comment was directed, and I am sorry I jumped on you.

 

I disagree about the warrior training giving her an edge. If anything, Greandal has OP training in warfare far more extensive than Aviendha, I think that would matter more. Again, a years worth of training against a Forsaken would give about half a chance, and Greandal has every advantage except an angreal.

 

Graendal was neither a soldier in the war, nor a general. Her contribution was in the form of manipulation. Beyond that, however, i never claimed that Aviendha was more extensive in her knowledge of the power, I claimed that her warrior training would contribute to her ability to percieve and react to a sudden threat.

 

Graendal has never been a warrior. Aviendha is at her core. Beyond that she has the combined training of modern Wise Ones, modern Aes Sedai, and the Forsaken. The action of battle is limited, and the only real thing Graendal has over Aviendha is reversion... so yes, i disagree.

 

Incidently, Graendal does have an angreal.

 

It's hard to say exactly, but I think it could be possible that Greandal is almost twice as strong, if not twice as strong, as Aviendha and Egwene and Elayne. Rand is much stronger than the girls, probably somewhere in the range of five or six times stronger, and I doubt that Greandal is not half as strong as Rand.  

 

Firstly, Rand is not as much as five or six times stronger. RJ has stated that the male ranger of strengths stand one or two levels above the female. The female range covers twenty-one levels. If we take that twenty one level at a range of 1 to 100, then the male range extends at best 4 to 8 percent beyond the female.

 

The Aes Sedai cut off point is at 38.6% Based on that we know that Egwene and Elayne must stand at least around the 70 percentile (We know that the range covers around 20 percent, so Moiraine (Siuan, Romanda, Lelaine, Elaida) is somewhere around 60% and Egwene and Elayne and Aviendha exceed her enough for it to be conciderable). So yes, at least around 70 (since we know Cadsuane stands less than Egwene, yet conciderably higher than Moiraine), probably as high as 75, or even 80, though i concider that unlikely.

 

So, Rand stands at somewhere between 104 and 108. Addmitedly this is a very loose system, but its clear... he is not  '5 or 6 times' their strength. He is not even double their strength in a worse case scenario.

 

Try and look at Rand in TSR when he toys with Egwene and Elayne. Apparently at that point they could hold more of the power than Moiraine, much more, yet Rand was above and beyond anything they thought. I think he had something like twelve weaves going, and Egwene later admits that she probably could barely manage two at the same time.

 

Yes, and Egwene weaves fourteen in KoD. And additionally, by that stage, Egwene had already managed three, and she hadn't actually been trying.

 

I know that's a long time ago in the books, but if they were to progress at that rate, Rand is still ridiculously stronger than Egwene and Elayne. And Greandal is pretty strong herself. I may be pulling this from left field but even with that angreal i think Greandal would be as strong if not stronger than Aviendha. Like I said above, it hink too many people give the girls too much credit.

 

I'm not trying to say for sure that Greanda; would be twice as strong, but I think it's possible. More than a "70-90" in your example.

 

Well, i answered most of that already. But beyond that Graendal likely can't exceed 90 percent, because Lanfear after being severed and healed by a woman is still stronger than Graendal, and given the Siuan and Leane's comparative decline it has to be somewhere between ten and fifteen percent.

 

*smiles* *waits* (not directed at you, youngking)

 

Mesaana is the one who compares herself to Semirhage and estimate that they are roughly the same strength, not Graendal. Graendal is above Semirhage/Mesaana, though how far above, we don't know. As has been said, Aviendha is as strong as Egwene/Elayne. 'Nynaeve shines like a bonfire beside Egwene's and Elayne's candles.' That's a big drop, if you ask me. Nynaeve is on a par with Moghedien, or slightly above, Moghedien is below Mesaana/Semirhage. The point is, Graendal is considerably stronger that Aviendha.

 

We don't actually know if thats true. RJ has specifically stated that the Forsaken lie to themselves about their comparative strength. Graendal could be an example of that. Beyond which, you have absolutely no basis for claiming that Moghedian is below Mesaana and Semirhage. She might be equal, or stronger. The only comparative statement about Moghedian we have is that she is weaker than Lanfear (uh... duh!) and that she THINKS herself to be stronger than Rhavin. Furthermore, Nynaeve might have been some distance from her full strength at the time she fought Moghedian, and the comparison between Elayne and Egwene to Nynaeve was only ever in terms of their final strength.

 

That being said, im not even sure if i disagree with you. :)

 

Luckers, I don't deny for my part that Aviendha's Maiden experience increases her reflexive response to threats, but the way you present it it's as if Graendal has zero reflexe responsiveness. She fought in the War of the Power, right? And she's still here. Furthermore, I'm confused when you say that a year's experience now puts Aviendha on a par with Graendal (that the only thing that Graendal has over Aviendha is reversion, your own words). That's just preposterous. You seem to blatantly ignore the hundreds of years Graendal has had to hone her reflexes and experience with the Power. Don't they count for something? How could the knowledge Moghedien parts with--reluctantly, I might add--in one year compare to Graendal's entire life knowledge? I also feel that channeling reflexes are faster than those required in physical combat, and Graendal has way more of the former, she was in a battle that required them. Has Aviendha been in one? If I were to bet on two drivers taking part in a race, I would put my money on the one who has been driving for a year, rather than the one with a one-day experience.

 

1. I never even commented on Graendal's reflexive responses. I compare Aviendha to Cyndane and Moghedian... I do think that Graendal's reflexes will not compare with Aviendha's, but no, i never even remotely suggested that she had none. Or even that she had bad reflexes.

 

2. No, we don't know that she fought in the war of power. Indeed, like Asmodean, Mesaana and several others she was never a general or a soldier (she is actually one of the oldest Forsaken). Her role was manipulative, and intelligence based. So yes, no we don't know that.

 

3. I did not say that a years experience put Aviendha on par with Graendal. I said that in terms of their respective weaponlike weaves, Graendal has only reversion as far as we know. Aviendha having learned the weaves learned from Moghedian is capable of standing against Graendal in terms of knowledge of weaponary weaves. Beyond that she has Aes Sedai knowledge, and Aiel knowledge which Graendal does not.

 

4. Graendal's lifetime of knowledge concerns the function of psychology. Her experience with the Power is certainly a point on her side, but not in terms of confrontation, beyond the speed of her weaving (which again, is a point on her side). Moghedian's revelations, reluctant or not, would have covered as much as Graendal had experience over.

 

5. Reflexes are reflexes. The action that responds from them may be faster with channeling, yet that changes naught of the fact that reflexes are reflexes. How, precisely, will Graendals knowledge of channeling help her realise a threat? How will it distinguish between random Aiel, and an Aiel that realised that she is not what she seems?

 

actually graendal did command troops in the war of the shadow, and she governed lands conquered. she does prefer politiacal manipulation to open confrontation, but will not back away from it either (mog is the coward). graendal certainly does know the weave for balefire but i doubt she will feel that neccessary against aviendha. i think graendal could easily overpower avi, maidentrained or not.

 

Umm, actually Graendal did NOT command troups in the War of the Shadow. From the Guide "Whilst not a military commander in the field, Graendal was apparently responsible for several significant gains, and for a variety of successful subversive efforts. One source states 'Graendal conqured territories as surely as the Shadow's generals, but her battleground was her enemies minds.'"

 

Sorry, but her role as a warrior is quite clear, and furthermore backed up by her reaction to the threat from Moghedian and Cyndane.

 

On the topic of face-to-face fighting, Graendal got a chance to hone her reflexes at the Cleansing, of course. IIRC, she faced off against Verin and her party - and managed to off one of them. Which I still reckon is a bit disappointing, given how powerful the Forsaken are meant to be, but still, shows she can handle herself reasonably well in a fight, and isn't going to crumble just because Aviendha causes her to break a nail.

 

She held her own against Verin's circle, yes, but Verin is far from being Aviendha. The source of her dangerousness lies elsewhere than confrontation.

 

 

[cloglord]

*smiles* *waits* (not directed at you, youngking)

 

LoL,  Man I feel like I've been smiling and waiting all week.

[RobertAlexWillis]

And that, my friend, is why Mesaana needs to keep Egwene in play. If the rebellion collapsed at this stage then reunification would have been immediate. Of course, we can see that in the long run is much more dangerous to leave Egwene in play than risk the potential collapse of the rebellion, but Mesaana can't see that... hence she keeps Egwene in play.

 

I'm sorry, but I simply flat out disagree with that.  Reunification would have been immediate?  All of the reasons that the split occurred in the first place still exist.  Despite the worries expressed by Siuan and others, large numbers of Sisters would not have run flocking back to the Tower.  They all knew of the Accepted Shemerin's dissapearance, and other evidences of Elaida's idiocy.  Elaida had become no more reasonable in the interim.  Not to mention that many of them now believe Siuan's fabrication regarding the Red Ajah.

 

With a Hall in place, and Ajah heads in place, the Sisters have an organized structure which they acknowledge that can give them orders.  And the Sitters and Ajah Heads certainly weren't running back to Elaida (witness Lelaine's reaction to the news of Egwene's dissapearance ... no lack of resolve there).

 

You are extrapolating far too much from Siuan's momentary panic at Egwene's dissapearance.  A few ... a very few Sisters may have left precipitously with Egwene's actual assassination.  But the majority would have stayed, and all the leaders would have stayed.  The few who left would be more likely to join the ranks of the unaligned, rather than returning to severe penance, further dissipating the overall power of the Aes Sedai.

 

Would the rebellion eventually dissipate without strong leadership?  Sure.  But it would take time.  Months at a minimum.  Years in all likelihood.  And with Tarmon Gai'don on a much closer horizon, Mesaana didn't need to maintain the standoff indefinitely. 

 

Egwene's strategy of forcing the issue presented the only chance for reunification before Tarmon Gai'don.

 

And yes ... I am fully aware that Egwene's recall and ascension did not occur at Mesaana's bidding.  But when Egwene demonstrably took control of the situation, and publicly committed her faction (including revealing her plan to Travel to Tar Valon), then Mesaana should have had the information she needed, and already had an agent in place.  When Egwene was on the Murandy/Andor border, Mesaana should have known enough to take advantage of that situation, and kill the greatest (only real) threat to her plan. 

 

I never said she was more formidable with the Power, i said that as a warrior she is more formidable in terms of her conditioned response to sudden threat.

 

I'm sorry, are you assuming that being conditioned to deal with one type of threat automatically conditions you to deal with all kinds of threats?  I say again, physical combat training is about muscle memory and practice with weapons.  Neither of those will avail Aviendha in the only kind of fight Graendal will engage her in.  Training for one kind of fighting does not prepare you for all kinds of fighting.  There is some degree of carryover, but it does not equal hundreds of years of specialized concentration, which is what Graendal has.

 

Unless you're suggesting they're going to wrestle for it?  ::)

 

Given what we've seen, Graendal's training with the Power includes conditioning to deal with channeling threats specifically.  And in that area, she far, far surpasses Aviendha.  Since every scenario I've read here has dealt with them battling with the Power, all other things being equal, the advantage is Graendal's.  Preparation, equipment, and numbers could all tip the balance in Aviendha's favor.  (And I certainly don't see RJ sending her in without those.)  But if it is just what each woman innately brings to the battle, Graendal will do with Aviendha as she pleases.

 

Aviendha's tactical training will avail her much ... if she goes hunting Graendal (see: preparation).  Her reflexes, in a channeling battle, are certainly not superior to Graendal's ...

 

For cloglord:

 

If you're waiting for the name of an Andoran High House that has died out, I don't have one.  Which is certainly not the same as it having never happened.  Are you honestly contending that no Andoran High House ever has, or ever could, die out?  Because when you say this:

 

"I'm sorry, but are you saying that one of the 19 most powerful Andoral houses is in danger of not being able to provide a heir?  That's just .... ludicrous."

 

It sure sounds like you are saying that it is impossible for any High House to die out.  Which is, truly, ludicrous.

 

The point is moot in this particular case, however.  You are correct that House Trakand does have an heir.  I feel stupid for not realizing it earlier.

 

With Elayne dead, there is an heir to High House Trakand.  Gawyn Trakand.  Who is not in Andor, not in contact with Andor, and not in a position to make all of his own decisions.  Not terribly trusting either, especially if Dyelin has Rand's approval.  Are you claiming that Dyelin could hold the Andoran throne without Rand's approval?

 

Complications, cloglord.  Just as Elayne's quest for the throne was not cut and dried, although there was a clear line of succession, Dyelin's would not have been either.  And each delay, each additional problem that the Light has to overcome, adds to the Shadow's benefit.  "Small increases in chaos can be as important as large ones."  With Elayne's death, Dyelin may well have been able to obtain the throne, but it would have been neither quick nor bloodless.  And the chaos in Andor would have benefitted the Shadow.

[Luckers]

I'm sorry, but I simply flat out disagree with that.  Reunification would have been immediate?  All of the reasons that the split occurred in the first place still exist.  Despite the worries expressed by Siuan and others, large numbers of Sisters would not have run flocking back to the Tower.  They all knew of the Accepted Shemerin's dissapearance, and other evidences of Elaida's idiocy.  Elaida had become no more reasonable in the interim.  Not to mention that many of them now believe Siuan's fabrication regarding the Red Ajah.

 

I'm sorry, but you misunderstand the point of this conversation. The issue is was Mesaana validated in keeping Egwene in play, and the answer is that yes she absolutely was, because there was a MASSIVE risk that without constant reinforcement and the presentation of a focusing influence against Elaida, than the opposition would have faded.

 

Now, despite your unsupported sentence, the only indications we have in the book is that a large number of sisters absolutely teetered on the edge of returning to the tower all along. The Tower must be whole... the number of Aes Sedai that state this make the mere reiteration of it pathetic.

 

Moving forward from that, those Aes Sedai think that DESPITE those reasons you listed. Of course they are still there, and of course they are massive issues--they are the very function of the rebellion (though i would say, the Rebels don't actually know of Shemerin's predicament, nor did they know of the wedges she drove between the Ajahs, nor the assault on the Black Tower, or the attempted kidnapping of Rand or any of the other 'evidence of Elaida's stupidity'.)

 

In the face of that Mesaana was absolutely validated in keeping Egwene in play, and absolutely vindicated in her fear of what would occur if Egwene fell out of play.

 

With a Hall in place, and Ajah heads in place, the Sisters have an organized structure which they acknowledge that can give them orders.  And the Sitters and Ajah Heads certainly weren't running back to Elaida (witness Lelaine's reaction to the news of Egwene's dissapearance ... no lack of resolve there).

 

Umm... What? Lelaine is powerhungry, amongst the elite, and garrunteed to lose a head should Elaida win... and you want us to take her reaction to Egwene's capture as some form of evidence of the generic sisters reaction?

 

Siuan makes it clear. The Rebels reacted to Egwenes fall by immediate damage control councils, and those councils covered returning to Elaida. The progression of this discussion was forestalled by Egwene re-establishing herself amongst the Rebels through TAR, but if Egwene had not done so that Mesaana had a very real situation on her hands.

 

You are extrapolating far too much from Siuan's momentary panic at Egwene's dissapearance.  A few ... a very few Sisters may have left precipitously with Egwene's actual assassination.  But the majority would have stayed, and all the leaders would have stayed.  The few who left would be more likely to join the ranks of the unaligned, rather than returning to severe penance, further dissipating the overall power of the Aes Sedai.

 

I'm sorry, but you are saying that Mesaana is a fool from not getting rid of Egwene, and that the Rebels would have faced that lost without issues... dude... have you read the books? Let me ask you, what is time and again stated to be the Rebel leaders primrary concern? Their concern beyond money, beyond the recognition of Rand... and then when i show this to be a valid concern in the true instance in which the rebels thought Egwene lost... you say im reading into it?

 

Ok, fine. Show me where in the text the majority indicate they would remain? Show me where anyone even implies that? Hell, I'll be nice. Show me the statement of a single Aes Sedai who believes that there is not a significant risk or the Rebels collapsing and returning to the Tower. And yes, i include Lelaine in that.

 

Would the rebellion eventually dissipate without strong leadership?  Sure.  But it would take time.  Months at a minimum.  Years in all likelihood.  And with Tarmon Gai'don on a much closer horizon, Mesaana didn't need to maintain the standoff indefinitely. 

 

Umm... ok... I mean, every character that has commented on this issue in the books completely, absolutely and totally disagrees with you. But sure, Mesaana is an idiot for thinking that to be a danger.

 

Egwene's strategy of forcing the issue presented the only chance for reunification before Tarmon Gai'don.

 

Umm... no. Aes Sedai bending knee to Elaida is a clear alternative. As the Aes Sedai state. Time and again. Over and over.

 

I'm sorry, are you assuming that being conditioned to deal with one type of threat automatically conditions you to deal with all kinds of threats?  I say again, physical combat training is about muscle memory and practice with weapons.  Neither of those will avail Aviendha in the only kind of fight Graendal will engage her in.  Training for one kind of fighting does not prepare you for all kinds of fighting.  There is some degree of carryover, but it does not equal hundreds of years of specialized concentration, which is what Graendal has.

 

Um. No. I assume that being trained in recognising and reacting to a threat might potentially be useful in... uh... recognising and reacting to a threat.

 

But you are right, neither will avail her in a fight. Who claimed that?

 

I claimed, once again, that Aviendha's training as a warrior would help her in RECOGNISING, and REACTING to a threat.

 

You seem utterly confused as to the point of this. You go on and on about how being trained to fight physically would not help her fight in channeling, but neither of those have ever been suggested (at least by me) as a remotely relevant issue.

 

Given what we've seen, Graendal's training with the Power includes conditioning to deal with channeling threats specifically.

 

When did we see that? Graendal channels at Moghedian and Cyndane, and the shield Verin wove was not strong enough to cut Graendal off and thereby rebounded... where precisely have we seen her 'deal with channeling'... specifically?

 

More specifically, where do you have any indication that her training even touched on battle with the power? Where do you have any indications about her training at all, aside from her psychologically expertise?

 

Aviendha's tactical training will avail her much ... if she goes hunting Graendal (see: preparation).  Her reflexes, in a channeling battle, are certainly not superior to Graendal's ...

 

Dude, i dont know how many times i have to say this, it was never even a suggestion that Aviendha was better at channeling reflexively than Graendal. Seriously....

 

With Elayne dead, there is an heir to High House Trakand.  Gawyn Trakand.  Who is not in Andor, not in contact with Andor, and not in a position to make all of his own decisions.  Not terribly trusting either, especially if Dyelin has Rand's approval.  Are you claiming that Dyelin could hold the Andoran throne without Rand's approval?

 

If he's not, I am. Rand would not openly back Dyelin's claim, and Dyelin would absolutely attain the throne with no need for Rand's approval.

 

Complications, cloglord.  Just as Elayne's quest for the throne was not cut and dried, although there was a clear line of succession, Dyelin's would not have been either.  And each delay, each additional problem that the Light has to overcome, adds to the Shadow's benefit.  "Small increases in chaos can be as important as large ones."  With Elayne's death, Dyelin may well have been able to obtain the throne, but it would have been neither quick nor bloodless.  And the chaos in Andor would have benefitted the Shadow.

 

A completely empty comment. Lacking Elayne Arymilla would never have claimed the throne. The vacuum would have lasted a few months, the six in murandy would have published for Taravin, and likely Arawn and Sarand besides. Haevian, Norwelyn, Mantear and Carand would have followed suite. Dyelin would have had the throne, and without contention.

[RobertAlexWillis]

All I can say is, Luckers, if the Tower being whole was truly their greatest concern, then they never would have split in the first place.  The reasons that were strong enough to make them split, would have kept them apart, if not forever, then long enough for Tarmon Gai'don to make the issue moot.

 

Obviously, we don't agree.  You think that there would have been immediate reconciliation with the majority.  I think there would have been a small few who returned, a slightly larger few who defected, and the largest portion by far would have stayed with the Hall they had publicly (by the time in question) associated themselves with.

 

Umm... What? Lelaine is powerhungry, amongst the elite, and garrunteed to lose a head should Elaida win... and you want us to take her reaction to Egwene's capture as some form of evidence of the generic sisters reaction?

 

Its not evidence of the generic Sister's reaction.  The generic Sisters are greatly influenced by their leaders, to the point of -gasp- taking orders from them.

 

The Salidar faction has become a Tower in Exile.  There is a fully organized Hall.  The Sisters who aligned with the Salidar faction do believe that the Tower must be whole.  But their solution is not to return to Elaida.  It is to pull Elaida down.  The fact that they believe the Tower must be whole does not mean that if Egwene were killed, they would all run home to momma.

 

They split without Egwene.  They organized without Egwene.  The only thing Egwene added, in that respect, was direction and decisiveness.  Remove her, and the organization is held together by the forces that made it coalesce to start with.  The only things lost, in that respect, are direction and decisiveness.

 

Obviously Mesaana's assessment agrees with your own.  Lets see how it turns out for her.

 

Dude, i dont know how many times i have to say this, it was never even a suggestion that Aviendha was better at channeling reflexively than Graendal. Seriously....

 

Well, seriously, dude, I don't know how many times I have to say it, but since its a bloody channeling fight you're proposing, channeling reflexes are the ones that matter!

 

If he's not, I am. Rand would not openly back Dyelin's claim, and Dyelin would absolutely attain the throne with no need for Rand's approval.

 

:o

 

Really?

 

So, what would Rand do, then?  Say .. oh, ok, well, I guess you can have it ...

 

What you're proposing would just lead to a conflict between Rand and Dyelin.  How is that not good for the Shadow?  Rand does happen to have the largest army in Andor at the time period in question.  If all the Houses support Dyelin, as you say, and he does not support her, as you say ... then Rand has to subjugate Andor by force.

 

I'd think Moridin would be chuckling 'til the cows come home after that.  It would certainly ruin Rand's chances of peacefully dealing with the Borderlanders.  Its that sort of aggression they've marched south to prevent.

 

Lacking Elayne Arymilla would never have claimed the throne.

 

You're ignoring the very real indications that the Shadow is influencing Arymilla.

 

But we're obviously not going to agree here either.  Frankly, the Rand thing trumps the Arymilla thing anyway.  And in another thread, I gave reasons why killing Elayne would still be good for the Shadow, even if Dyelin would have walked right onto the throne that same day.  Dyelin can be killed even more easily than Elayne.

[cloglord]

They split without Egwene.  They organized without Egwene.  The only thing Egwene added, in that respect, was direction and decisiveness.  Remove her, and the organization is held together by the forces that made it coalesce to start with.  The only things lost, in that respect, are direction and decisiveness.

 

This is an oversimplification.  They organized without Egwene, this is true, but they also organized under the direction of Sheriam, Anaiya, Beonin, Carlinya, Morvrin, & Myrelle.  Of these 6 one is under the control of Lelaine, (apparently), one is dead, one is a traitor, one is destined to become Seanchan property, and one has just taken on her 5th warder, her 2nd that is death walking.  The organization that made it coalesce is not operating at anywhere near the effectiveness that it was at the time of the split.

 

 

You are extrapolating far too much from Siuan's momentary panic at Egwene's dissapearance.  A few ... a very few Sisters may have left precipitously with Egwene's actual assassination.  But the majority would have stayed, and all the leaders would have stayed.

 

We have one very good example to the contrary.  Beonin.  Admittedly, Beonin can never really be considered a true leader of the rebels as she was in actuality a mole for Elaida, but her statements to Elaida, are indicative.  We know from the 3 oaths, that Beonin believes that Egwene is finished and that the Rebels will begin returning in a flood.  This is the simple truth, one of the sisters who has been within the inner circle of the rebels since the beggining thinks that the end of the rebellion is emminent.

 

"I'm sorry, but are you saying that one of the 19 most powerful Andoral houses is in danger of not being able to provide a heir?  That's just .... ludicrous."

 

It sure sounds like you are saying that it is impossible for any High House to die out.  Which is, truly, ludicrous.

 

No, I'm saying that Trakand would be able to provide an heir, Gawayn would seem to be a logical choice, and that it would take far too long to be of any importance to this discussion for a High House to die out.  Even if Morgase's behavior and Elayne's death damaged Trakand's standing, it would still take generations before the house itself would be unable to produce an heir.

 

Complications, cloglord.  Just as Elayne's quest for the throne was not cut and dried, although there was a clear line of succession, Dyelin's would not have been either.  And each delay, each additional problem that the Light has to overcome, adds to the Shadow's benefit.  "Small increases in chaos can be as important as large ones."  With Elayne's death, Dyelin may well have been able to obtain the throne, but it would have been neither quick nor bloodless.  And the chaos in Andor would have benefitted the Shadow.

 

Its pretty simple.  The complications and problems that Dyelin would have faced would have been far fewer and to a smaller scale than the one's faced by Elayne.  If the shadow had killed Elayne, it would have led to less choas and uncertainty for Andor.  So, it makes sense for the Shadow to leave Elayne alive.  Even if, Dyelin's succession were fraught with civil war, it still would have only been a 2 sided affair, with Dyelin in the clear majority position, instead of the nearly perfect 3 way split that occurred.

[Mashiara O Aan.a--ein]

Comparative strength in the power was brought up earlier. I was wondering, does anyone know how Nynaeve compares to Rand? Also, since you have to be much stronger than someone else to break a shield, could Nynaeve break a shield set by Egwene/Elayne/Avi?...just thinking about that beacon/candle comparison.