FIDDLES-ON-SEA -------- The Pirates Game

[Kison]

I do believe that SBoydW is voting me as well.

[Talya]

you're right, thanks

[Kivam]

If Sirayn is on the evil team (seems highly likely), then their only hope is to kill the finder tonight. The only way to make that more likely is to eliminate innocent players by modkill or lynch before tonight.

 

So, who's called attention to Toy & Minion's absence? And who is voting to lynch another likely innocent player as opposed to a player acting in a highly suspicious manner?

 

Zy, if you are innocent, putting the final vote on Kison would be a good start.

 

Barm, it's time to stop voting at random.

 

Winter Mist, you're rapidly floating to the top of my "third pirate possibility other than Zy" list.

 

One of you needs to polish off Kison so we can get some information and move on, since Toy & Sirayn won't be doing it.

[Kivam]

Toy will be back sunday or monday night. Considering that this first day has lasted nearly a week, that we still have night actions to go, that day two probably won't start until late sunday at this rate, that we've already lost one innocent to modkill, that Toy did show up when he could and that Toy didn't just disappear, but left a LOA note, I'm fairly confident that he won't be modkilled.

[GoodGrief]

If Toy informed of LOA then he isn't going to get modkilled. At least I think that's the way it has always worked. He'd have to miss more than a game day to get modkilled despite prior notice. Voting for him saves us nothing. Gains us nothing.

I'm not budging from the Kison vote. It's not often I have well-founded suspicions on day one, and I'd like to follow through with them. I'm glad Kison respects my opinion and he'll no doubt draw comfort from the fact that I've read all his posts very carefully.

[Kivam]

 

It's a WIFOM situation. Nontheless' date=' it is still much more likely that, if the town agreed to suggest the same person, the cop would have done it. Pirates would have known this, and gotten a near-free kill.[/quote']

 

The only WIFOM situation is the one you are positing:

 

 

Kison wrote:

 

I never said that. I said the cop needs to pick a target at random, and NOT be predictable. If that random target happens to be Sirayn, then by all means, do it.

 

If you honestly believe that we should tell the cop who to investigate in a place where the Pirates can hear, then you are trying to get Sirayn killed. I explained earlier why this would happen, and the fact that you are trying to cast doubt on me based on this sets a red spot on my scumdar. Let me lay it out for those who still don't get it...

 

If the Pirates KNOW that our cop is going to investigate Sirayn, they will kill her tonight. They will do this BECAUSE of what we would gain from an innocent result. If she is a confirmed townie, she becomes a huge threat to the Pirates. She's vocal, a good analyst, and she would become someone who we would not suspect when throwing our votes around. Basically, she would narrow the number of POSSIBLE scummies on the list, making it more likely that we lynch the right person tomorrow. In order to PREVENT this, -let me say it again-, the pirates will kill Sirayn tonight if they know we are going to investigate her.

 

 

unless, of course, they think the doc is going to protect Sirayn, which will make it a wasted nightkill attempt. And the doc SHOULD protect Sirayn, so the cop's investigation will not go for naught. (And if Sirayn is evil, this all but guarantees I get nightkilled tonight - but c'est la vie, and if that's what it takes to win, I can live with it).

 

 

Yes, you are on the right track, yet you still are not seeing the deeper problem with announcing an investigation. Sirayn will be killed in the end, if not tonight because of a doctor protection. However, I'll get into this later.

 

You are right about the scenario that will almost definitely unfold tonight as a result of announcing the investigation. The doctor will most likely protect Sirayn, and as a result, scum will not target her for a kill. However, there is a minor issue that could have been very easily prevented had you NOT asked for this investigation. What is that? A 100% guaranteed scum-kill for tonight. Our doc's protection has basically been wasted because he/she will, as a result of this, see it necessary to protect Sirayn. Scum will therefore be unwilling to take that risk, and go for someone who is not being protected, ensuring that they get the kill off.

 

To summarize:

 

If Sirayn is innocent, and they know we are going to have the finder investigate her, they nightkill her and deprive us of an investigation.

 

But our doc knows that, so they will assume that the doc will protect Sirayn, they will NOT nightkill her and therefore guarantee their kill.

 

Lets take this further:

 

We now know that they know that, and our doc can safely assume that they will try to kill someone other than Sirayn, to guarantee their nightkill, so our doc can protect someone other than Sirayn, to try and stop their nightkill, knowing that, clearly, they cannot drink the wine in front of Sirayn.

 

But they know that we know that they know that, and can therefore now assume that our doc will protect someone other than Sirayn, leaving them free to kill her and deprive us of our investigation.

 

But we know that they know that we know that they know that, and so now our doc knows that they may go after Sirayn after all, and protecting Sirayn does stand a chance of stopping the nightkill.

 

So you tell me: Is there a more quintessential WIFOM

argument than the one you are making?

 

You can run this logic out forever. And that means that if Sirayn is innocent (which is still an unlikely to be true assumption that makes this whole exercise pointless, in my mind), if the doc chooses to protect Sirayn there is still a likelihood (low to midlevel) of stopping the nightkill

 

(low to midlevel because there would be both a high risk for the evil team (probable healer target) and a high reward (remove a formidable player and deprive us of an investigation all in one go) plus a higher likelihood for our doc of guessing right on Sirayn than of randomly protecting one of the rest of us [though if you're going to do that, doc, pick me :D )

[Zylazlo-]

If it'll indeed prove my innocence in everyone's eyes then Kison it is.

[GoodGrief]

I'm not nearly as certain as you are of Sira's guilt, Kivam. I'd feel better knowing she was protected while we investigate her. Plus randomly picking targets almost never suceeds in stopping a night kill. If the doc doesn't have a candidate to protect they should protect themselves, not some random. But they do have a candidate. Sira.

 

Come to think ... To introduce an element of randomness, why doesn't the doc think of protecting Kivam tonight? After all, he's a valuable player too (assuming innocence) and has been more active today than Sira (true, she likes to bide her time, but he's gotta have the pirates worried too). Who is safe to kill? Kivam or Sira? Sira or Kivam? Your move, my peg-legged friends.

[Talya]

KISON (6): Alys, Kivam, GoodGrief, Dude, Boyo, Zy

 

GOOGGRIEF (1) - Barmy

 

TOY AND MINION (3) - Sira, Kison, Winter Mist,

 

 

 

The villagers argued most of the day, everyone accusing everyone else. Alys's shout for Kison went ignored for a while, but as he became more vocal the toher villagers started to shout for his lynch. They began to get angrier and angrier and at last had enough votes to lynch him.

 

Kison was dragged out side to the oak tree that stood in the middle of the village green. He screamed and screamed in protest and hoped someone would change their vote, but the craod was so riled up by now they couldn't here him. He was dragged to the tree, a noose put round his neck tied to the tree whilst on a chair. They all crowded in to kick the chair out the way and in no time at all Kison hung limply on the tree.

 

Not waiting around, the villagers ran straight to his house to see if there was any sign of stolen treasure, but alas there was none. The villagers stopped stunned in disbelief as they realised they had just lynched an innocent villager

 

Okay it is now night. Night actions please by 9pm GMT Monday

[Winter Mist]

*goes to sleep* Poor Kison

[Alys Kinch]

loa needed... keyboard port died... Working to solve... copy and pasting... :x :x :x :x

[GoodGrief]

Well, I let myself believe for a second that we might actually nail someone guilty on day one. Shoulda known better. My apologies, Kison.

 

Lol at Alys, I feel your pain. Once a friend stole my keyboard for four days :x :x thought it was a grand joke, he did. They got his limbs re-attached alright. I hope you keep stopping by to check on the latest.

[Kivam]

damn. just . . . damn.

 

So what does this tell us? Sirayn is looking less guilty (which would have me looking at the dude and [if I wasn't myself] me)

 

Alys came out firing for Kison, so she moves up my personal suspicion list (the way I should be moving up the rest of my fellow townies' lists).

 

Winter Mist still seems a little off to me.

 

And I guess we need to consider Kison's take, now that we know he is innocent - which means Boyo starts to look a bit wobbly.

 

If I had to rank my suspects right now they would be:

 

1) Sirayn

2) Winter Mist

3) Alys/Zy/Boyo

4) Everyone else

 

And if Sirayn is innocent, the dude takes her spot at Number 1.

 

(FYI, if there are counterclaiming finders tomorrow, we lynch Sirayn. If she's guilty we lynch the "finder" defending her (and the doc protects the other finder), and if she's innocent we do the opposite)

[SBoydW]

oooooo I'm on a suspect list *giggles maniacally*

[GoodGrief]

Or we could lynch the cop calling her evil. If they're innocent we've lost our cop but we know that Sira and her supporter are evil - two down, that's great mileage out of any seer. If they're guilty we know that Sira and the other claimer are innocent, and we keep the cop alive.

 

Risky? Yes. But not the 50-50 you're all thinking. If Sira is evil I believe we're unlikely to get a counter claim, simply because it would be uncovered at the lynch (no matter whichever of the three we lynch) and then they'd have a second person in the line of fire. So we're much more likely to get a false claim if Sira is innocent. The evils might view losing a team member worth getting rid of Sira and having our cop revealed.

 

Now, if the finder finds Sira innocent they already know to shut their gob about it because we'll take silence for an affirmative. I suggest silence in the event of a false claim as well. If you keep quiet we'll certainly lynch Sira but then immediately realise who we want to kill tomorrow. And you're safe to investigate again. Or you could reveal and hope that people follow my advice.

 

That said.

I don't think there'll be a false claim tomorrow simply because at this stage of the game it can only mean death for the false finder within two days. The only gain that can come out of it for the evil team is to get rid of either our finder or Sira (if innocent). Not worth losing a team member (or two) over.

[the dude]

it would seem that i was mistaken... sorry kison... you were coming off (to me anyway) as suspicious, and i wanted to push you a bit to see what hints might be shaken loose. my silence was keeping you talking, so i decided to go with it. obviously, my gambit didn't pay much...

[Kivam]

GG - I agree with everything you said except who to kill. Useful as Sirayn is, a finder is more useful, so I'd rather lynch Sirayn and keep the finder than possibly lynch the finder.

 

And we could give Sirayn long enough to live to post her full analysis of both days so far (in which there's been enough activity to at least give her some ideas, I'm sure [most of which I've got to believe revolve around me being piratical if she's innocent]) so that we could use that info if she turns up innocent.

[Alys Kinch]

back! i had to get a usb compatible keyboard for this to work. :x :x :x

 

o.k. we lynch the evil because the finder is much more useful. barring abysmal luck, we will get at least one more view out of the finder.

 

and about kison... the only reason i started to vote for him was the lie he used to try to pin me. i have no clue why an innocent would burst through the gates with a lie. then he worked so hard to discredit everyone using...points... that i couldn't swallow. i am still trying to figure out why he would act so suspicious... and despite everything, i am not the only one to call him on it, nor did he stop once he saw the reaction he was getting. of all people, i know you can't help but get defensive in a position like that, but why provoke your influencial players further?

 

kivam, i forgive you because i know how it looks with me being the first on him. i just hope everyone has the sense to go back and see what really happened before they jump to the wrong conclusions.

[the dude]

yeah, i think we were on the same page on that one alys. he'd been seeming to act oddly to me, and i was kind of linking him with sirayn on some things... i guess my links were faulty (obviously :oops: ) but more and more during our back and forth it was seeming like the efforts of a guilty person trying to stave off death. i'll admit to trying to provoke towards the end there... little mind-game fun... bad dude. bad.

[Alys Kinch]

bah... at least we can hope for something out of this night.

[SBoydW]

When did she say it would end? or did she put a time limit on it? I don't remember...

[Guest Barmacral]

Sometime today I believe.

[Alys Kinch]

it is generally after everyone does night actions. did you put in yours?

[SBoydW]

I think she said it would be either or. Either after night actions or by sometime... I don't remember what time though..

[Guest Barmacral]

Okay it is now night. Night actions please by 9pm GMT Monday

 

That said by the mod.