Will Lan Reach Tarwin's Gap In Time

[Luckers]

Ok, so I've been an advocate of Lan holding back the shadow as it invades the lands of the light. Him heroically fighting insane odds to give people time to muster. It seemed iconic to me. Romantic.

 

But then the brilliant cloglord went and trod all over my nicely dramatic ideas with some cold logic. Damn you! Heh.

 

But seriously, he has a point. Lan begins at World's End somewhere between five and seven days after the Cleansing. Based on Interuldes comments he has somewhere around 1,600 miles to cross, and he has followers to gather. Now even if they he just rides through, finds them on their horses, and joins him, its going to delay him. Best case scenario considering the horses involved, he would be able to manage 30 miles a day. It should be much less (for those interested in the logistics of horse travel i posted it in the 'The Shadow Comes to Tar Valon' thread) but lets say 30. Thats 10 days per 300 miles. So altogether he would be arriving at Fal Moran at around midday on the 54th day.

 

Now, addmittedly, RJ sometimes smudges the facts with travel... Mat's Band is impossible. Tuon reaching Ebou Dar, impossible. The last ride of Manetheren, impossible. All fantasy writers do this, and dont get me wrong, RJ is MUCH more factual then most. And if he wants to smudge a little for the good of the narative, more power to him.

 

But do we think there is a chance that the Last Battle wont start until 54 days away? Given its the last book, and all the evidence suggesting the immenance of Tarmon Gai'don, and so forth....

 

As i said, ive always been a fan of the idea that when the Trollocs come south, Lan is there to meet them. But it occurs to me that and equally powerful, if somewhat more tragic image is him arriving too late. I mean think about it. What better way for RJ too start the last book, to bring home the true threat of the shadow, then to have Lan arrive at the end of his heroic trip to find Shienar in ruins.

 

I mean really, aside from the destruction of Seanchan, what has the shadow done that Truly describes its power. Yes, its spread division, but given its the last book perhaps a statment needs to be made. The Shadow is the ultimate enemy. It is dangerous.

 

And concider the pain for the characters. The borderlanders who abandoned their posts. Nynaeve who placed Lan at Worlds End, too far away to help. Concider the realisation of the deaths of Lady Amilisa, and other characters we know.

 

I mean, am i the only one that feels the shadow needs to do a little looming before they are defeated. Wreak a little destruction. This is Tarmon Gai'don and at the moment its looking more like the Trolloc Wars will have had more oomph. We've been building to this for eleven books. It needs to be big.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Actually, while I'm one of the people who definitely thinks he can't ride the whole length in time, there are a couple of other factors here.

 

Nynaeve is a genius. She put Lan far enough away that he can't get there in time, but she also set free the beast "rumor". Many men will gather in Shienar, waiting for Lan. So, when the time comes, Nynaeve can find him, even if he's barely into Kandor, pick up him and the ones he has gathered, and take him to the ones who have gathered in his name. He can get there, with a considerable force, in time to catch them at Tarwin's Gap, assuming they're not already there.

 

Second, while Tarwin's Gap would be dramatic, Lan may be able to do practical damage if he's harassing them from the flanks and rear, while they try to engage others in the front. This would be particularly useful if he catches them en route to Tar Valon. 50,000 crazy Borderlanders led by Lan could harass even a million Trollocs. With Shadowspawn not being able to use gateways, and human Darkfriend help at a premium, he could wreak havoc on supply lines, etc.

[Barnabas]

I've always sat in the middle of the thoughts of lan making it in time or not. I reckon a decent sized force, possibly led by Agelmar? (forget if thats the right name, from EoTW) will combine at Tarwin's Gap or somewhere similar in preparation for Lan's arrival, trollocs reach it first.

Lan and the forces he musters as he goes arrives after northern Shienar possibly further south has been more or less destroyed, and harry flanks/rear.

I agree though Luckers, Lan needs to have some major "romantic" as such role in this last book, hes very iconic i think, plus the Dark One needs to establish a bit more authority, he is evil after all

[Beckon]

I think you're right the shadow needs to loom a bit in the last book. We'll value the victory of the light more if we had to come back from behind to win it.

 

I think Lan's role is going to be very impactful. That could be wishful thinking on my part just because I like the whole Nynaeve/Lan thing and well...Aragorn and Arwen got to be together dammit...

Though I must admit I was pretty moved by your Nynaeve as the next Cadsuane suggestion in the other thread...

 

But there's also Min's viewing of the seven towers and Lan's insistence that Malkier is dead. You know any time RJ makes anyone state something with absolute certainty like that there's about a 99.9% chance that the opposite will turn out to be true.

[Wanderer]

I agree too, the Shadow really has to prove itsefl dangerous, mercyless, devastating and if you have more adjective you can add as much as you wish in this fashion! We need to feel an high threat level over all the Randland, we have to feel that everyone and everthing is under the shadow of death and destruction.

Otherwise Tarmon Gai'Don isn't Tarmon Gai'Don.

 

So the idea of Shienar turned to ashes could be a good choice. But even a great battle in the borderlands with Lan as general is romantic like Luckers said, maybe RJ will give us both, but we need to feel shock to get dragged into the last battle.

My final guess is that Lan will make it in time in a way or another, afterall the borderland rulers did leave a certain numbers of soldiers guarding the Blight.

[Toy and Minion]

I personally believe that Lan will arrive just as the trollocs finish up Shienar and then they all strike with a vengeance, that would be perfect. Then you will get both!

[BrainFireBob]

Quick quibble: Mat's band is based on Roman military practice, and Manetheren could use the Ways.

[Guest Barmacral]

They could use the ways, but for their famous last march I don't believe they did.

 

And yes, thats partly why Mat's army is so much better than everyone elses. Mat may be a good commander, but that only goes so far.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Good topic. Will Lan reach Tarwin's Gap in time?

 

"But seriously, he has a point. Lan begins at World's End somewhere between five and seven days after the Cleansing."

 

Really I thought it was more time than that ... where did this come from?

 

Assumptions:

 

1) Horses can travel: Walk 3-5 mph; Trot 8-10 mph; Gallop 30-40 mph.

http://www.ultimatehorsesite.com/info/horsespeedmph.htm

 

2) Trained infantry can march: Flat terrain 3 mph; Rugged terrain 2.5 mph;

“A Note on Alexander’s March Rates” Historia

 

3) Rest: Every seventh day work animals must rest.

Column length: An army of 65,000 personnel and 6,000 cavalry, and the terrain allowed the personnel to march 10 abreast and cavalry 5 abreast, their column would extend 16.5 miles. Not including supply train – carts, wagons, remounts, etc.

March Spacing: ~5 meters for horses and ~3 meters for humans

Alexander the Great and The Logistics of the Macedonian Army

 

4) Malkieri Army:

The Malkieri Army is probably fairly dependent on the number of Malkieri willing to rally to the Golden Crane. I will assume that 1/3 of the remaining Malkieri men will rally to Lan’s aide (since a lot of the remaining Malkieri are dead or getting really old now). I will also assume for every 1 Malkieri Lan will pick up 1 non Malkieri Borderlander. So the Lan’s Total Army will be about 1/3 the population of remaining Malkieri. Let’s assume that after the slaughter and destruction of Malkieri there is only about 1/10 the total population of Malkier remaining so depending on what you believe about Randland’s population the following can be true:

 

Randland Population__________Malkieri Army

10,000,000___________________~22,000 troops

15,000,000___________________~33,000 troops

20,000,000___________________~44,000 troops

30,000,000___________________~66,000 troops

40,000,000___________________~88,000 troops

50,000,000__________________~110,000 troops

 

5) If it is only about 7 days after Winter’s Heart then Lan will only have about 11-13 hours of light for his march. I will assume that no march can go beyond sunset since it becomes very dangerous to march at night, and the army can become divided. The maximum march per day will be 13 hours. Anything more and the number of marching hours will need to be cut back.

 

Analysis:

 

Summary of Analysis:

 

I realistically expect Lan to begin gaining followers a few days after he starts his travel. I also believe that Randland has a very large population and I anticipate Lan travelling with a sizeable army (20,000-30,000. I also believe that the army will have a mix of infantry and cavalry. The army will travel at the infantries slower pace, and Lan will have detachments ride ahead to find campsites and negotiate passage with local Lords. I also believe that Lan is a good commander and will take care of men who choose to follow him by providing them with food, clothing, tents, weapons, etc. Releastically I expect Lan's trip to last about 150-160 days, with ~140 days being the lowest believable limit.

 

Distances

Anyway so how long will it take? Well lets start with the distance. Using the various sources of canon (ie ~600 miles from Cairhein to Caemlyn, etc.) you can figure out that Lan is at Minimum distance to travel is ~2100 miles West and ~100 miles South of Fal Dara. The Maximum distance to travel would be ~2200 miles West and ~300 miles South. The minimum distance ~2100 miles is maximum distance is ~2250 miles. That is for a strait line over flat terrain, and we know that is not true. I will create a true distance by incorporating 20% increase for road curvature, and 10% for elevation changes.

 

True Maximum Distance: ~2970 miles

True Minimum Distance: ~2772 miles

 

Lan by himself:

 

If Lan was by himself, and he managed to pick up a couple of remounts he could do the walk (3-5 mph)-jog (8-10 mph)-gallop (30-40 mph) pace at about 6-7 mph, maybe 8 mph if he pushed it hard and killed his horses. The MINIMUM (ie 8 mph) time Lan could do this trip is 346.5 hours or 14.5 days, and 371.25 hours or 15.5 days. Now lets assume Lan can’t go two weeks without food, or sleep, or going to the bathroom, and there isn’t a person handing him a new horse every time one dies, and that he actually likes Mandarb and so he won’t kill his horse. Let’s assume he needs 8 hours sleep, 1 hour for each meal to find, kill, and prepare the food for another three hours total, bathroom breaks of 1 hour, taking off and putting on his saddle, feeding his horse, finding water, setting up camp, finding firewood etc. for another 2 hours. So this leaves Lan a grand total of 10 hours a day to travel. So more than likely he will only travel about 60 miles per day by himself.

 

Lan by himself:

Maximum Travel Time: 49.5 days

Minimum Travel Time: 46.2 days

 

Lan and an Army:

Now we know that he will pick up lots of followers along the way. Most will head to Fal Dara without him and there should be a sizeable Malkieri force their waiting for him. I’m going to assume 50% of the Malkieri army is waiting for Lan at Fal Dara, giving Lan a minimum army of 10,000 soldiers, and a maximum of 55,000 soldiers. Now that Lan has a tremendous army following him, he will need to meet with the various Lords and leaders of the lands he is about to march through. Since the Lords will probably be happy to see Lan, this will probably only result in a delay of a few hours every couple of days, instead of the Lord negotiating and deliberating with Lan over passage. The forage and food gathering, and camp set up will take longer than Lan just traveling by himself, but the head of the column (which will finish hours before the rear of the column) can start on this as soon as they find a camp ground. I will assume the total time Lan can spend traveling will drop from 10 hours to 8 hours because of the new logistical issues with his army.

 

For a Cavalry only army:

 

10,000 Cavalry only army marching 5 abreast for 8 hours at a pace of 6 mph will have a column length of 6.2 miles and will travel a total of 48 miles. It will need 30,000 lbs of grain and 50,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. And it will need 200,000 lbs of grain and forage, and 800,000 lbs of water for the horses PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 1 hour after the rear of the column. The total march time will be 9 hours.

 

55,000 Cavalry only army marching 5 abreast for 8 hours at a pace of 6 mph will have a column length of 34.2 miles and will travel a total of 48 miles. It will need 165,000 lbs of grain and 275,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. And it will need 1,100,000 lbs of grain and forage, and 4,400,000 lbs of water for the horses PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 5.7 hour after the rear of the column. The total march time will be 13.7 hours. The total march will be lowered to 44 miles per day because of light.

 

For an Infantry only army:

 

10,000 Infantry only army marching 10 abreast for 8 hours at a pace of 2.5 mph will have a column length of 1.9 miles and will travel a total of 20 miles. It will need 30,000 lbs of grain and 50,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 45 minutes after the rear of the column. The total march time will be about 9 hours.

 

55,000 Infantry only army marching 10 abreast for 8 hours at a pace of 2.5 mph will have a column length of 10.2 miles and will travel a total of 20 miles. It will need 30,000 lbs of grain and 50,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 4.1 hours after the rear of the column. The total march time will be 12.1 hours.

 

For a Cavalry and Infantry mix army:

 

7,000 Infantry and 3,000 Cavalry army marching 5 and 10 abreast respectively for 8 hours at a pace of 2.5 mph will have a column length of 3.2 miles and will travel a total of 20 miles. It will need 21,000 lbs of grain and 35,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. . And it will need 60,000 lbs of grain and forage, and 240,000 lbs of water for the horses PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 1.3 hours after the rear of the column. The total march time will be about 9.3 hours.

 

40,000 Infantry and 15,000 Cavalry army marching 5 and 10 abreast respectively for 8 hours at a pace of 2.5 mph will have a column length of 16.8 miles and will travel a total of 20 miles. It will need 120,000 lbs of grain and 200,000 lbs of water for the soldiers PER DAY. . And it will need 300,000 lbs of grain and forage, and 1,200,000 lbs of water for the horses PER DAY. The head of the column will start and stop about 6.6 hours after the rear of the column. The total march time will be about 14.6 hours. The total march will be lowered to 16 miles per day because of light.

___________________________________________________

I include the water, because Lan will have to start planning his marches around lakes and rivers. He may not be able to march the full length each day because of water concerns. Half of the food requirement for horses can come from grazing. Lan will have to force march his army through unpopulated areas to get to places that have sufficient food. He will need to acquire more horses and wagons to provide food for his soldiers during those forced marches. He will then have to buy grain from each of the villages, towns, and provinces that he marches through. This is part of the reason why he has to meet with the Lords so Lan won’t be forced to steal all of his food. And where exactly is Lan going to get all this money from? Is he just going to bill it to the White Tower?

 

Depending on your belief about the Randland population (10 million or 50 million people), the villages with food will be weeks apart, and Lan’s army will eat the villages and towns out of house and home. The tiny population scenario would have Lan’s army wiping out whole communities.

 

Anyway so I will assume the deterioration of Lan’s riding pace is linear such that the average of Lan’s pace will be (60 miles per day + Lan’s army pace) / 2. This is a BAD assumption since Lan’s pace will drop much quicker than this, but lets call this the optimistic case.

_____________________________________________________

 

Best Case Scenario:

 

So for a Cavalry only army:

Lan with an army of 10,000 will achieve an average pace of 54 and the total travel will be from 51.3 days (Minimum) and 55 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 58.3 and 62 days.

 

Lan with an army of 55,000 will achieve an average pace of 52 and the total travel will be from 53.3 days (Minimum) and 57.1 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 60 and 65.1 days.

 

So for an Infantry only army:

Lan with an army of 10,000 will achieve an average pace of 40 and the total travel will be from 69.3 days (Minimum) and 74.3 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 78.3 and 84.3 days.

 

Lan with an army of 55,000 will achieve an average pace of 40 and the total travel will be from 69.3 days (Minimum) and 74.3 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 78.3 and 84.3 days.

 

So for a mixed army:

Lan with an army of 10,000 will achieve an average pace of 40 and the total travel will be from 69.3 days (Minimum) and 74.3 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 78.3 and 84.3 days.

 

Lan with an army of 55,000 will achieve an average pace of 38 and the total travel will be from 73 days (Minimum) and 78.2 days (maximum). If I include the 1 day of rest in 7 this journey expands to 83 and 89.2 days.

 

Worst Case Scenario:

 

My worst case scenario would be for Lan to begin picking up infantry right at the beginning of his trip and him being forced to slow down to about 25 miles per day. Then by the time he reach the one quarter point in his trip he had to drop down to 20 miles per day, and then for the last quarter he had to travel at 16 miles per day.

 

300 miles at 60 miles per day.

450 miles at 25 miles per day.

1470 miles at 20 miles per day.

750 miles at 16 miles per day.

 

Worst Case Scenario Trip: 143.4 days

Worst Case Scenario Trip with 1 day of rest in seven: 163.4 days

[Toy and Minion]

so, what are you saying, Lans not going to make it, or RJ's going to totally BS it!

[Guest Anonymous!]

That or he is going to really stretch out Egwene's and Elayne's storylines ... which has never happened before. :D

[Toy and Minion]

dont know if id like that...

[chuckievi]

I think you are seriously overestimating the amount of Malkiri left alive in the world. TOPS I would put them at 100. More likely in the twenties all told though, and thats including any still surviving Aes Sedai of Malkiri heritage. The only surviving members of their race would have had to have been away from their country when it was overrun. Remember they BARELY got Lan out, and he was the son of the King, and very well guarded. That means the average citizen wouldn't stand a chance of getting out alive, especially if they were burdened with small children and the like.

[Guest Barmacral]

It is very possible that people left ahead of time. There is thousands of Malkier left, not a mere hundred, if there was only a hundred:

1. They wouldn't raise the Golden Crane and

2. The Golden Crane wouldn't have been raised in A New Spring or successfully gained an army at its back.

[Mat is the Boss]

And there`s three Malkieri in the inn Nyaneve visits in KoD. We know that Nyaneve was going to visit several other towns as well, trying to gather Malkieri. If there only was a few Malkieri left in the world, Nyaneve would have needed a taveren to find three in the same inn, and all the taveren is in Altara or Tear at the time...

 

The main population of Malkier was evacuated before the trolloc invasion, only when all hopes were gone did the King and Queen send Lan to safety. As NS proves, several thousand Malkieri have settled throughout the Borderlands.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Remember they BARELY got Lan out, and he was the son of the King, and very well guarded.

 

The son of a King, and well guarded because he was a TARGET. Unlike hundreds of merchants, farmers, etc, who fled into the other Borderlands. There are probably about 500-1000 actual Malkieri left, and maybe a couple thousand of their descendants scattered throughout the Borderlands. Besides, more than just Malkieri will rally to the Crane. Lan will get his 50,000 farmers, mercenaries, and old men. The question is will he get to Tarwin's Gap in time to be heroically ground into dogmeat, or will he much more usefully (but less dramatically) be a little late, and use his force to harass and disrupt the Trollocs from behind. Then still be around for the actual assault on Shayol Ghul.

 

Personally, I'd love it if Mandarb stepped in a hole in eastern Saldaea because Lan pushed him passed dark, throwing Lan off and breaking Lan's neck in a meaningless accident. Morbid, no? :D Thats why I love GRRM.

[DemandredFO]

I really think Lan will reach the gap in time or at worst Fal Moren but I think Tarwin's Gap. Even if Lan harassess the Trollocs there will still be major devastation, remember what trollocs eat and he can't get EVERYONE evacuated in time. I'm also of the mind that Lan will ride through devastation cuz the borderlanders left few guards and the Trollocs need lots of food. Lan may even encounter raiding trollocs before he gets to Sheinar. Lets not forget this is a fantasy story so RJ can fudge the details a little bit; I by no means mean a Deux Ex Machina moment but fudging within reason is fine. My thoughts

[cloglord]

We can look at typical horse speeds, argue forage requiremnts, and bathroom breaks until aMoL comes out, or we can look at the examples that RJ has given us.

 

It took a party of Shienarian Calvary 16 days to make the trip to Carhien traveling signifigantly out of their way, each day, for half of their trip. By my measurement the, as the crow flies, distance from Fal Dara to Carhien is about 1/2 the distance between fal dara and world's end in Saldea.

 

It took Lan 85 days to make an eagle flight straight trip from Carhien to Salidar when Moraine's bond was broken. This is of course a trip undertaken by a man through bandit infested carhien, with no roads, and at least for part of the time, wounded.

 

It took, at most, 85 days for Tairen forces to get from Tear to Carhien in order that they be there in the defence of the city from the Shaido.

 

It took 105 days for Davram Bashere to get from Moradon in Saldea to Camelyn, assuming that he heard of Taim's escape at nearly the same time as Siuan heard the news. It is also likely that Bashere traveled overland, and not by way of major roads, as the presence of several thousand Saldean horsemen rtiding through lands held by Tar Valon, Carhien, and Andor would likely have been noticed.

 

It took 58 days for Egwene to move her Aes Sedai and rebel army from salidar to just south of Andor, as the crow flies, and by my estimate, 1/3rd of the proposed distance.

 

It took 21 days for Galad to move 7000 whitecloaks north to within 50 miles of Perrin, by my estimate more than 1/4th but less than 1/3rd of the proposed distance for Lan.

 

Mat thinks he can get the band from Aringil to Tear in less than a month. Not quite half the proposed distance for Lan.

 

Okay of these, the most solid is the trip that Lan took from Carhien to Salidar at 85 days. We know from Myrelle's POV that Lan didn't deviate from a dtraight line, even to avoid a fight, and that he was wounded so badly a lesser man would have died. So we know that Lan could make the trip from world's end to Tarwin's gap in at most 85 days, provided he is riding alone. However, we should take into account that this is not the same trip, and that his traveling conditions are much better than those he faced when he was going to join Myrelle. For starters, he can travel by road for the entirety of his journey. Secondly, he is not beset by brigands. Thirdly, he would not always need to forage, because presumably he will be traveling through inhabitd areas where he could purchase provisions. Lastly, he is not wounded. All of the factors suggest to me that Lan could make the trip in as little as half of the time it took him to make his trip from Carhien to Salidar, but for arguments sake, I'll give the doubters the benfit of the doubt and call it 62 days, or 2 months.

 

Now I also know that many people think that it would be impossible for an army to make a similar journey. To that I would make 2 points. One, it is unlikely that Lan would lead an army. He shows a marked resistance both in NS and in KoD to the idea of leading men. He did however agree to let men follow him, which is not the same thing. He could very well, allow anyone who could keep up to follow, as he promised, and then travel as fast as he can in the interest of losing any tagalongs. Two, The army would not have to make the trip, it already knows Lan's destination, and everyone from Eastern Saldea through Kandor, Arafel, and Shienar knows it. Nynaeve was very smart, and procurred a promise from the Malkieri Merchant to send the message to every person he corresponds with in the borderlands, that Lan was riding to Tarwin's gap and Tarmon Gaidon. It will take Lan 2 months to get there, but everyone else has a headstart. The borderlanders with the longest trek are the saldeans who are famous for their fast traveling light calvary.

 

Simply Lan gets to Tarwin's gap in 2 months and finds an borderlander army waiting for him. Of course that doesn't explain how Luckers is going to get his trolloc invasion of Tar Valon in any sort of a timely fashion. It also raises doubt as to the idea that Lan would arrive to find Shienar destroyed. If He arrived to find shienar destroyed, then it would mean that most all of his borderlander army was destroyed before he could get to it....

 

The way I see it, Lan can make it in 2 months, The saldeans, if not forced to go overland, but aviling themselves of smooth roads, could make it in as little as 2 depending on where they are starting out from, and every other borderlander has sufficient headstart to beat Lan to Tarwin's gap. Lan will arrive to find his army waiting for him.

[Luckers]

That was fairly impressive Anonymous.

 

"But seriously, he has a point. Lan begins at World's End somewhere between five and seven days after the Cleansing."

 

Really I thought it was more time than that ... where did this come from?

 

In Cadsuane's scene in CoT, she mentions that Rand is still tired from the Cleansing. Lets say that he was out for a day, and the weakness remained for another one to two days, which fits with Logain and Sashelle arriving. Rand sends Bashere immediately to Ebou Dar, and he takes three days to return, he returns as Lan leaves. So, likely six days, possibly 5 depending on how long the post-channeling weakness remained, or possibly 7. So, 5 to 7 days.

 

HORSES

 

Horses cannot maintain a trot for more then an hour, not if you expect to be able to ride again the next day. The best method of travelling is alternating between a trot for an hour, and walk for an hour. Your average horse would only be able to sustain this for about 6 hours a day. Horses bred for stamina can make 7 or 8. Staggered in between that is the need to stop every two hours for around an hour for the horse to graze. Less if you can carry feed bags. Your average horse would achieve 20 miles in a day, your wellbred, well trained horse, maybe 30.

 

DISTANCE

 

You found a comment addressing the distance between Cairhein and Caemlyn? I used Interuldes judgement of distance, which he is firm about, to work out that it was 1,600 miles. Obviously this discrepency is why RJ usually glosses over exactness.

[Beckon]

One, it is unlikely that Lan would lead an army.

 

See that's the whole romantic/dramatic part at work. He gets there to find the last of the Malkieri rallied to him and he goes "awww shucks, maybe just this once".

[Luckers]

Agreed. Wether or not Lan makes it, he WILL ead the army.

[Guest Anonymous!]

I agree that Jordan avoids giving detail to leave room to operate within his world, but in the case of Caemlyn and Caihien he gave us two nearly identical examples. So I took it as gospel.

 

LoC - ch. 17 - "...more than six hundred miles from Caemlyn, in the Sun Palace, the Royal Palace of Cairhien."

 

ACoS - Ch. 7 - Cairhien is more than 150 leagues from Caemlyn "...then stepped more than a hundred and fifty leagues to Caemlyn..." (1 league = 4 miles)

 

Both times he references more than 600 (or 150 leagues) miles. So I figure the maximum had to be 700 miles, and if it was significantly over 650 miles than why not say "just shy of 700 miles."

 

So for the distance from where the Border of Saldaea meets the World's End Coastline to Fal Dara:

 

Caemlyn to Cairhien__________World's End to Fal Dara

(Horizontal distance)

600 miles____________________2150 miles

650 miles____________________2329 miles

700 miles____________________2508 miles

 

In general for scaling and map measurements I ues 640 miles from Cairhien to Caemlyn, figuring that my calculations will be off by about +/- 7% because Jordan would have said "Just short of 700 miles" for a distance of over 680 miles.

 

Edit:

As for the Malkieri remaining, I considered the guy in KoD a Malkieri. So basically descendants of Malkier I included in my count. I also figured that since a baby (Lan) made it from the Capital City all the way south to safety, that many of the people in the southern regions of the country also made it. I made an assumption that 20% survived the initial slaughter, and more than half of that 20% survivors have since died. Hence my number of 1/10 mainly included the offspring of the 20% survivors. Since the fall of Malkier occurred from 953-955 I figured the youngest survivors are in their late 40's. So probably on 1,000-5,000 Malkieri, who actually lived in Malkier, will be available to Lan.

 

Cloglord: Many of the marches you mentioned involved marching along rivers (or with much, much smaller forces), where supplies and water could be easily transported. Maradon to Caemlyn is about 1550 miles straight as an arrow. Lan's march from Maradon across Kandor to the border of Arafel does not cross a single major river. Hence the way I approached the problem. He will be very tied to water sources. Unless you think Lan doesn't need water.

 

Luckers: I thought Jordan early on established "walk for a mile, ride easy for a mile, ride hard for a mile" as the way Randlanders did long distance travel. I could be wrong since I don't remember the exact place. I agree with your assessment of the riding hours and pace, but there have been examples of light mounted units achieving 50-60 miles per day for short durations (like 3-4 days). My calculation above is highly optimized in my opinion, but I was trying to work under the assumptions that Lan will get the same luck that Egwene (ie great luck) has had in the last few books, and that Jordan pushes the reasonableness boundaries on all his logistics.

[Trib4l]

From what I'm reading, it also appears that people are assuming that the army will only assemble in Lan's wake. That's not how I see it from what Nynaeve said. I got the impression that she planned on spreading the word the entire width of the continent so that he'd have soldiers waiting on him or even venturing ahead towards Fal Dara.

 

I think that may be how RJ could possibly cheat the travel times - how convenient would it be if Lan arrives with a minor contingent of a few thousand finds an already assembled army of 100,000-200,000 soldiers who heard rumor of his ride to the gap?

[cloglord]

Cloglord: Many of the marches you mentioned involved marching along rivers (or with much, much smaller forces), where supplies and water could be easily transported. Maradon to Caemlyn is about 1550 miles straight as an arrow. Lan's march from Maradon across Kandor to the border of Arafel does not cross a single major river. Hence the way I approached the problem. He will be very tied to water sources. Unless you think Lan doesn't need water.

 

I do not think that Lan will need more water than he can drink himself. I specifically mentioned, and belive that Lan will not be traveling with a contingent of any size. I believe, given his sense of urgency, he will attempt to make the journey as quickly as humanly possible. Since, as a warder, Lan possesses superior endurance, he would most likely outpace any group that tried to keep up with him. That is why I specifically mentioned his trip from Carhien to Salidar, because it was an instance when he possessed a similar sense of urgency.

 

Agreed. Wether or not Lan makes it, he WILL lead the army.

 

I should have been more specific, I don't believe that Lan will be leading any army across the borderlands. I do believe that he will take command of any army he finds at his destination.

 

 

 

As for a realworld discussion of how fast Lan could make it. The pony express, made a journey of 1840 miles in ten days. So, hypothetically, if Lan stabled Mandarb in Saldea, (cause he likes him,) bought a new horse, rode him to death, bought a new horse, ad nauseum, he could probably do the trip in as little as 2 weeks, given his warder stamina, and a good bit of gold for around 80 remounts.

 

For a more realistic POV the wikipedia entry of endurance riding as an equestrian sport notes that winning riders can do 100 miles in 10-12 hours. Modern endurance riding competitions require stops for veterinary inspections, heartrate monitoring, and mandatory rest breaks for feed and watering. It further notes that the begginings of the sport were found in US calvary training that required the horses to be able to do 5 day/ 300 mile rides while carrying at least 200 pounds.

 

Assuming that Lan possesses the endurance to maintain a 10-12 hour/day pace and that Mandarb is as capable and eduring as the horses cited, by these figures, and using anonymous's distance calculations it becomes very feasible that Lan could make the trip in less than 2 months. In the best case scenario, Lan could travel 100 miles per day and would be able to travel 2150 miles in 21 and 1/2 days. Even should he have to travel at the much slower US Calvary Pace pace for the full 2500 miles it would still only take him 41 1/2 days to reach Fal Dara. This is of course assuming that Lan is traveling alone, and will find his army assembled ahead of him. And it also assumes that Mandarb is indead that enduring.

 

However this does not take into account that by all accounts the roads in the borderlands are probably more substantial than existed in the western US at in the late 19th century, and the aforementioned possibility of RJ fudging time for dramatic effect.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Cloglord we have a difference of opinion. You think he will be alone, and that he will refuse followers as he passes them on the roads. I think he swore an oath and he has that whole "duty" thing to his personality, which leads me to believe he will eventually take on followers (if not immediately) as he begins passing them on the road. He may be able to refuse one or two, but if he comes across a group of 20 or so, I don't think he will refuse them, and as he approaches Fal Dara the likelihood of him running across packs of followers will increase.

 

I agreed with your first post above about Lan's trip from Cairhien being the most similar if Lan was alone. The trip from Cairhien to Salidar is about 1780 miles, straight as an arrow. If I throw in an additional 10% for elevation changes, and if his trip was 85 days, he would have traveled at a pace of 23 miles per day. We saw Lan in Cairhien after his bond was broken he was still rationale, and we saw he was still able to think and be defiant to Myrelle at the end of the trip. I agree the pull to reach Myrelle was tremendous, so does it make more sense to take the shortest road or the FASTEST road. From Myrelle's internal thoughts:

 

"Myrelle could feel his wounds, some almost healed, some almost fresh. Some badly infected. He would not have gone aside to seek battle. He had come to her, as surely as a boulder tipped down a mountain had to roll on to the bottom. He would not have moved one foot to stand aside from battle either. She had felt his journey in distance and blood; his blood. Across Cairhien and Andor, Murandy and now Altara, through lands infested with rebels and rogues, bandits adn Dragonsworn, focused on her like an arrow speeding to the target, carving his way through any armed man who stood in his path."

 

If he had taken trade road from Cairhien to Aringill to Caemlyn to Lugard down toward Salidar, he would have made much better time and only added a couple hundred miles to his trip. From Caemlyn through Lugard and past the fork near the River Manethererendrelle his "straight line" course would have essentially followed the major trade road. We know the bond only gives general directions and feelings at long distances so Myrelled couldn't have determined if he followed a winding road or "straight as an arrow." The point of the above passage was to portray the urgency felt by Lan to reach her was so great that he couldn't resist the pull, like a boulder couldn't resist gravity, and his focus was directed on her alone, like an arrow aimed at a target. He wouldn't even stray to avoid a fight. That passage was more about the urgency felt by Lan then it was about the path Lan took to get to Myrelle.

 

Since Lan could still think, and the urgency to reach Myrelle was so great wouldn't it make more sense to take the FASTEST route and not the most direct route? If I throw on 200 miles onto the "trade route" trip for deviations caused by the road and add the 20% for road curvature, the trip would be ~2600 miles and Lan would have ridden 31 miles per day. I find 31 miles per day along a road without a remount, much more believable than 23 miles per day without a road and remounts, especially with the number of rivers he had to cross. He needed bridges or ferries to do the crossing with his horse, armor, sword, and supplies.

 

So that as the baseline I'm now going to change my assessment from above to say that Lan riding by himself will need at least 3 months to do the trip to Tarwin's Gap. At least, since he didn't appear to encounter any mountain ranges along his trip to Myrelle, and the World's End looks covered in mountains.